SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Excellent news for Camp Bernie today: a deal has been struck with Biden and the DNC to allow him to keep most of the delegates he would otherwise have lost after suspending his campaign. Under DNC rules, the state wide delegates of a candidate who dropped out (about a third of the total) would be reallocated to whoever remained in the race- which would have made it virtually impossible for Bernie to get enough delegates to qualify for committee representation. Under the new arrangement, it sounds like the delegates will technically go to Biden- but he has agreed to fill those delegate slots with Sanders supporters, and to guarantee Sanders committee representation. This is a huge deal, as it means that the Sanders campaign is now assured of a voice in drafting the party platform and rules, and its another strong indication that Biden actually is dealing in good faith regarding giving Sanders and his supporters a voice in the party:

https://nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elect ... s-n1196631
WASHINGTON — In an unusual move to promote unity, Joe Biden will give Bernie Sanders more influence at the Democratic National Convention and over key party committees than party rules would typically indicate, according to an agreement between the two campaigns announced Thursday.

Under the agreement, Biden will appoint Sanders supporters to fill hundreds of delegate slots that Sanders sacrificed by dropping out of the Democratic presidential race. And he'll ensure representation for Sanders allies on the committees that, for instance, write the party’s policy platform and set the rules for the next presidential nominating contest.

“It is a clear indication that Biden and, by extension, the DNC are mindful of the legacy of 2016 and don't want to go down that road again with so much on the line,” Josh Putnam, an expert on presidential primaries who runs the Frontloading HQ blog, said referring to the Democratic National Committee. "It is a good-faith effort on the part of the Biden campaign that is seeking a good-faith response from Sanders delegates and ultimately the Vermont senator's supporters.”

Four years ago, Sanders delegates walked out of the party's convention after hacked emails released by WikiLeaks revealed anti-Sanders sentiments by some DNC officials following months of acrimonious sparring between Sanders' and Hillary Clinton's campaigns.

Biden has taken a more conciliatory approach to Sanders than Clinton did, using the weeks since he essentially wrapped up the nomination to praise Sanders and his supporters, move to the left on the policy, and reach out to young voters.

Sanders has endorsed Biden, but is still hoping to accrue as many delegates as possible to the Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August, in order to influence the party’s future.

Under party rules, when a candidate withdraws from the race, a significant portion of their delegates — the roughly one-third of delegates awarded based on statewide primary results, instead of by congressional district — are automatically reallocated to whoever is still running, which in this case is Biden.

Now, despite those rules, Biden’s campaign has agreed to fill the statewide slots Sanders lost with Sanders supporters.

Biden’s campaign also committed to ensuring representation for Sanders in the delegation from New York, one of the biggest, after the state’s Board of Elections made the controversial decision this week to cancel the state's presidential primary entirely, citing the coronavirus crisis.

“Our campaigns are grateful for the unity and spirit of collaboration within the Democratic Party as we look to defeat Donald Trump and establish a government by and for the American people,” the Biden and Sanders campaigns said in a joint statement. “We look forward to working with the state parties to implement this approach, as we elect delegates who reflect and represent the diversity that is the unique strength of our great nation.”
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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I'll say this for Biden: he's done way, way more for party unity than Hillary did. And this is also important because he's essentially running on being not Trump, and on being someone of better moral character than Trump, a uniter. And this is him walking the walk. The most damning thing about the Trump Presidency, which is the root of or exacerbates all its other failures, is Trump's narcissitic personality and resulting autocratic style of rule- he listens to nobody unless they flatter him, and demands absolute loyalty from everyone, and uses the power of his office to vindictively punish people he doesn't like or disagrees with- even if it means, say, cutting aid to thousands of dying Americans in a pandemic.

Biden here is publicly demonstrating an opposite style of leadership, by showing graciousness toward a defeated opponent, and moreover proving that he is willing to seriously work with others and listen to other peoples' ideas.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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New poll shows Joe leading in Texas and NC:

https://forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender ... fc4a7167d7
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Biden announces VP vetting committee:

https://cbsnews.com/news/biden-vice-pre ... committee/
Joe Biden's presidential campaign announced the co-chairs of his vice presidential vetting committee Thursday. They are former Senator Chris Dodd, of Connecticut, Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; and Biden's former White House and Senate counsel, Cynthia Hogan.

Biden has stated that he would choose a woman to be his running mate, and these four co-chairs, along with former White House Counsel Bob Bauer, campaign General Counsel Dana Remus and former Homeland Security Adviser Lisa Monaco, who will be leading the vetting teams, will be carrying out the selection process. Bauer, Remus and Monaco will be providing Biden with background and information on the candidates, according to the campaign.

On Wednesday, Biden said he expected to have the vetting completed by July, and then, "I'll be narrowing down who it is that I would ask to be my vice presidential running mate." He's also apparently keeping in mind advice from the man who tapped Biden to be his vice president.

"I need someone who's going to be, as Barack said, 'simpatico with me,' who is a real partner in progress and is ready to be president on a moment's notice. There are a lot of women out there with the experience to do that job."

Now, it's a matter of figuring out who those women are. To help him with this, Biden will have both people whom he has known and trusted for decades in Washington, as well as the voices of a younger generation of leaders.

He has a four-decade-long friendship with Dodd, with whom he served in the Senate. When Biden was vice president, Dodd was the interim chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee and helped the Obama administration secure passage of the nation's health care law, the Affordable Care Act. He is also the co-author of the Wall Street overhaul measure known as Dodd-Frank, which was passed after the 2008 financial crisis.

Rochester, a fellow Delaware denizen, is the first African-American and first woman member of Congress to be elected from Delaware. She is also an assistant whip for the House leaders and sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Garcetti is the president of the National Conference of Democratic Mayors and also leads a group of U.S. climate-focused mayors who are committed to the Paris agreement and addressing climate change. He's also a member of the board of directors of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO).

Hogan's relationship with Biden also dates back decades to the Senate, where she first worked with him on the Violence Against Women Act. She was the chief counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which Biden chaired. During the Obama administration, she was charged with getting Sonia Sotomayor confirmed to the Supreme Court, and she later served in the White House as Biden's counsel.

-- Reporting by Bo Erickson and Ed O'Keefe
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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While I can't comment on the others, Chris Dodd is... not a great choice, to put it mildly, especially under the circumstances:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... -team.html
A former Senate staffer named Tara Reade has accused Joe Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993, an accusation which gained further credibility on Monday when Business Insider reported that one of Reade’s former neighbors recalls Reade having told her about the alleged incident in detail in the mid-’90s.

Biden’s defense, so far, has involved keeping his distance from the story. The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has said, through a spokeswoman, that he did not assault Reade, but he has yet to address the accusation himself in public. His campaign has meanwhile signaled its confidence in Biden’s good reputation to an extent that reads as arrogance.

On Tuesday, for example, the candidate made an online appearance with Hillary Clinton, who was reportedly involved in some of Bill Clinton’s efforts to discredit women who said (truthfully, in at least some cases) that they’d had extramarital affairs with him or suffered unwelcome advances. The subject became an issue during her presidential race—and while that was to some extent because it was raised in bad faith by Donald Trump, she is, regardless, not widely seen as a credible character witness for men accused of misbehavior. On Thursday, the Biden campaign announced that its vice presidential selection committee will include former Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd, a longtime friend and political ally of Biden’s whose own history on the subject of sexual assault is, at the least, unsavory.

Most directly, it’s public record that a D.C. waitress named Carla Gaviglio accused Dodd and the late Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy of sexually assaulting her at the restaurant where she worked in 1985. According to Gaviglio, Kennedy and Dodd were both drunk in a private room when Kennedy threw her into a seated Dodd’s lap and rubbed his genitals against her until other staffers intervened.

It’s not the only account in which Dodd served as Kennedy’s lecherous wingman: The late actress Carrie Fisher, in a memoir, wrote that she went on a group date in 1985 with Dodd during which Kennedy asked her leeringly if she would be “having sex with Chris” and/or would “have sex with Chris in a hot tub,” behavior which she says Dodd observed with “an unusual grin hanging on his very flushed face.” In 1990, a writer at the D.C. paper Roll Call described Kennedy and Dodd to GQ magazine as “two guys in a fraternity who have been loosed upon the world.”

Dodd, moreover, was a leading Democratic recipient of donations by Harvey Weinstein, whom he referred to as his “good friend” in a 2011 New York Times interview. After he left the Senate in 2011, Dodd became the chairman of the Motion Picture Association of America. “I’ve known Harvey for 25, 30 years, and we’ve been friends,” Dodd told the Hollywood Reporter in 2012. “He was very helpful to me as a candidate for Congress and as a senator over the years.” Informal accounts of Weinstein’s frequent sexual misconduct were widely, widely circulated well before they were ultimately made public in New York Times and New Yorker exposés, and he is now in prison after having been convicted of third-degree rape and first-degree commission of a criminal sexual act (forced oral sex).

Defenses of Biden that have been made by his campaign and by Democratic surrogates have emphasized not just that he denies Reade’s allegations but that he embodies the decency of a person who could never be associated with such acts. That message is undermined by his decision to remind the public of his long association with Dodd, who at best was passively adjacent to, and at worst complicit in, the behavior of two notorious, powerful men during the era in which Biden—then, himself, one of the most prominent politicians in the country—is accused of assaulting Reade.
Admittedly, it would probably be hard to find a prominent Democrat from that era who didn't take money from Weinstein, before the accusations against him were mainstream news. But it looks awful for Biden, and is extremely insensitive at best, to put a man who was at least a friend of and complicit with sex abusers in charge of vetting his female VP pick, especially with the accusations against him and the fact that, as noted above, he's basically running on "I'll restore decency to America". Someone on Team Biden, for pragmatism's sake if not human decency, should have taken him aside and said "You know, Joe, maybe this isn't the best move right now."

We may have to grit our teeth and back Biden, but Chris Dodd doesn't have to be running his vetting committee in order to beat Trump. There should be a loud outcry to demand Dodd's dismissal or resignation, and his replacement.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Biden to publicly address Tara Reade accusations today:

https://theguardian.com/us-news/2020/ap ... tions-2020
Joe Biden will publicly address for the first time a sexual assault claim against him during an appearance on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Friday morning, after weeks of silence on the subject.

Biden, the presumptive nominee, will “respond for the first time to the recent allegation of sexual assault”, the network announced in a tweet on Thursday.

Tara Reade came forward last month to accuse Biden of sexually assaulting her in the basement of Capitol Hill office building when she worked in his Senate office in the spring of 1993. Biden’s campaign has forcefully denied the allegation, but the candidate has not commented personally.

Biden’s interview on Morning Joe, a cable news talk show, comes after new evidence emerged this week corroborating aspects of Reade’s story, which has escalated along partisan lines.

In recent days, Biden has faced mounting calls from some Democrats to make a public statement, even as the party’s leadership stands behind him. Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker on Thursday stressed her support for Biden’s nomination while Republicans seized the opportunity to attack Biden and his record ahead of a general election against Donald Trump, who has been accused of sexual assault and misconduct by more than a dozen women, all of which he has denied.

The issue has forced Democrats into an increasingly uncomfortable position as they grapple with how to respond in a way that is consistent with their support for the #MeToo movement. The party’s leadership has so far supported Biden, defending his character and pointing to his legislative record on sexual violence policy.

Already, top female surrogates and allies, including potential vice presidential candidates such as Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Stacey Abrams, have been asked whether they stand by him. Yet he has not been asked about it in the dozens of television interviews, virtual town halls or donor events he’s participated in.

Some progressive activists have called on Biden to step down as the party nominee while advocates for victims of sexual assault have been disappointed by the handling of Reade’s claim by Biden’s campaign and the press.

The issue was not raised on Thursday during an Instagram live event with soccer star Megan Rapinoe, a prominent advocate of equal pay and gender equality. Yet several viewers posted comments during the livestream urging Rapinoe to ask Biden about the allegation.

On Thursday, Pelosi, the highest-ranking woman in American politics, sought to dispel any concern about Biden’s candidacy.

“I want to remove all doubt in anyone’s mind: I have a great comfort level with the situation as I see it, with all due respect in the world for any woman who comes forward, with all the highest regard for Joe Biden,” Pelosi told reporters on Thursday, adding that she had “complete respect” for the #MeToo movement.

“There is also due process,” Pelosi said. “And the fact that Joe Biden is Joe Biden.”

Republicans seized on the remark to accuse Pelosi and the party more broadly of hypocrisy on issues of sexual assault and harassment. They compared her response to the allegation against Biden to the accusation against Brett Kavanaugh during his supreme court confirmation hearing.

“She’s being a hypocrite,” said Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader. “You can’t say one thing about every other time she has commented about any other accusation, and now say this is different.”

In an interview with Fox News, Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, said Biden should release his Senate papers to shed more light on the allegation, though he has not made a similar appeal for information related to the charges against Trump.

The president also weighed in on the allegation on Thursday, calling on Biden to respond while conceding that the claim could be “false”.

“I know all about false accusations,” he said. “I have been falsely charged numerous times and there is such a thing.”

Still, Trump’s campaign has made clear they intend to use Reade’s claim to undercut Biden, who has made character a central theme of his campaign against Trump. A Trump campaign memo published on Wednesday highlighted Biden’s response to Reade’s claim and accused him of “misrepresenting news reports and his own past positions in an effort to put controversies to bed or to level charges against the president”.

News is under threat …
It'll be interesting to see. I don't really see a good option for him here. He basically has three options:

1. Confess. Obviously devastates his reputation and campaign.

2. Say Reade is lying. Those who already believe him will believe him, those who don't mostly won't, and he'll look even more a hypocrite on the issue of believing women.

3. Offer a mealy-mouthed, indecisive statement which will appear obviously weak and evasive.

It'll be interesting to see which he goes with, though I obviously think 1. is unlikely.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Edit: there is also, of course, the high likelihood that he goes off-script and puts his foot in his mouth, this being Joe Biden.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Ralin »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-05-01 07:45am
2. Say Reade is lying. Those who already believe him will believe him, those who don't mostly won't, and he'll look even more a hypocrite on the issue of believing women.
How so? I haven't raped anyone, and if someone accused me of raping them I'd call them a liar unless I had good reason to think they were somehow deluded. Don't think that would make me a hypocrite.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Ralin wrote: 2020-05-01 08:26am
The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-05-01 07:45am
2. Say Reade is lying. Those who already believe him will believe him, those who don't mostly won't, and he'll look even more a hypocrite on the issue of believing women.
How so? I haven't raped anyone, and if someone accused me of raping them I'd call them a liar unless I had good reason to think they were somehow deluded. Don't think that would make me a hypocrite.
Because Biden has previously stated his support for MeToo, and said that women should be believed. And because Tara Reade's accusations are, as you've acknowledged yourself, credible.

I'm also curious as to why, after numerous pages of essentially calling me a rape apologist for supporting Biden, you now appear to be reversing course and defending him. Gee, its almost like you're full of shit.

Anyway, Biden has, predictably, denied it:

https://cnbc.com/2020/05/01/joe-biden-t ... ation.html
Joe Biden on Friday categorically denied the sexual assault allegation threatening to disrupt his presidential campaign, breaking weeks of silence on the issue.

“I’m saying unequivocally that it never, never happened,” Biden said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

Tara Reade, a former Senate aide, claims that Biden assaulted her in 1993 when she worked in his office.

Biden’s campaign had previously denied the allegation, but pressure had been mounting for the candidate to address the claim himself. In a statement released just before the interview, Biden cited “the full and growing record of inconsistencies” in the accusations and said: “They aren’t true. This never happened.”

Reade shook up Biden’s presidential campaign in March when she claimed on a podcast that Biden pinned her to a wall and used his fingers to penetrate her in an office building on Capitol Hill when he was a senator from Delaware.

Reade’s brother and a former neighbor have said that Reade discussed details of the alleged assault with them in the 1990s. Several individuals who worked in the Senate office at the time have said that Reade’s allegations do not square with their experience working for Biden.

Reade has said she filed a written complaint at the time, though it has not been located. Many of the records from Biden’s senate office remain under seal at the University of Delaware until Biden retires from public life. In his Friday statement, Biden said the archive does not contain personnel files.


“There is only one place a complaint of this kind could be — the National Archives. The National Archives is where the records are kept at what was then called the Office of Fair Employment Practices,” the statement said.

Biden said he had requested that the “Secretary of the Senate ask the Archives to identify any record of the complaint she alleges she filed and make available to the press any such document. If there was ever any such complaint, the record will be there.”

MSNBC host Mika Brzezinski pressed Biden on whether he would approve a search for Reade’s name in the University of Delaware records. Biden did not agree to do so.

“There is nothing. They wouldn’t — they’re not there. I don’t understand the point that you’re trying to make,” Biden said, growing exasperated. “Look, who does that search?” he added.

The allegation has roiled Biden’s campaign even as it struggles to connect with voters while Biden is stuck at home as a health precaution in the face of the spreading coronavirus.

Amid Biden’s silence on the allegation, a number of his potential running mates, including Sens. Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, as well as Stacey Abrams, the 2018 Democratic nominee for governor of Georgia, have expressed support for him.

Conservatives have accused Democrats of a double standard when it comes to assault allegations, pointing to the different reaction allegations against Justice Brett Kavanaugh received when the Trump appointee was accused of sexual assault during his Supreme Court confirmation hearings in 2018. Kavanaugh denied those allegations.

At the time, Biden said that women’s allegations should be presumed to be essentially true. He said, “for a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts, whether or not it’s been made worse or better over time.”

Asked about those comments on Friday, Biden said that “from the very beginning I’ve said that believing women means taking the woman’s claims seriously when she steps forward, then vet it, look into it.”

“In this case, the truth is, the claims are false,” he said.

President Donald Trump, who has been accused of sexual assault by a number of women, told reporters on Thursday that Biden should address Reade’s claim, but noted that “it could be false accusations. I know all about false accusations.”

Trump has been caught on tape bragging about grabbing women between their legs.

Biden has faced scrutiny over his interactions with women throughout his campaign.

In April of 2019, just before he officially launched his bid, Biden released a two-minute video pledging to be “more mindful and respectful of people’s personal space” after several women said he touched them in ways that made them uncomfortable.

The full satement from Biden is below.

Statement by Vice President Joe Biden

April was Sexual Assault Awareness Month. Every year, at this time, we talk about awareness, prevention, and the importance of women feeling they can step forward, say something, and be heard. That belief – that women should be heard – was the underpinning of a law I wrote over 25 years ago. To this day, I am most proud of the Violence Against Women Act. So, each April we are reminded not only of how far we have come in dealing with sexual assault in this country – but how far we still have to go.

When I wrote the bill, few wanted to talk about the issue. It was considered a private matter, a personal matter, a family matter. I didn’t see it that way. To me, freedom from fear, harm, and violence for women was a legal right, a civil right, and a human right. And I knew we had to change not only the law, but the culture.

So, we held hours of hearings and heard from the most incredibly brave women – and we opened the eyes of the Senate and the nation – and passed the law.

In the years that followed, I fought to continually strengthen the law. So, when we took office and President Obama asked me what I wanted, I told him I wanted oversight of the critical appointments in the Office on Violence Against Women at the Department of Justice and I wanted a senior White House Advisor appointing directly to me on the issue. Both of those things happened.

As Vice President, we started the “It’s on Us” campaign on college campuses to send the message loud and clear that dating violence is violence – and against the law.

We had to get men involved. They had to be part of the solution. That’s why I made a point of telling young men this was their problem too – they couldn’t turn a blind eye to what was happening around them – they had a responsibility to speak out. Silence is complicity.

In the 26 years since the law passed, the culture and perceptions have changed but we’re not done yet.

It’s on us, and it’s on me as someone who wants to lead this country. I recognize my responsibility to be a voice, an advocate, and a leader for the change in culture that has begun but is nowhere near finished. So I want to address allegations by a former staffer that I engaged in misconduct 27 years ago.

They aren’t true. This never happened.

While the details of these allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault are complicated, two things are not complicated. One is that women deserve to be treated with dignity and respect, and when they step forward they should be heard, not silenced. The second is that their stories should be subject to appropriate inquiry and scrutiny.

Responsible news organizations should examine and evaluate the full and growing record of inconsistencies in her story, which has changed repeatedly in both small and big ways.

But this much bears emphasizing.

She has said she raised some of these issues with her supervisor and senior staffers from my office at the time. They – both men and a woman – have said, unequivocally, that she never came to them and complained or raised issues. News organizations that have talked with literally dozens of former staffers have not found one – not one – who corroborated her allegations in any way. Indeed, many of them spoke to the culture of an office that would not have tolerated harassment in any way – as indeed I would not have.

There is a clear, critical part of this story that can be verified. The former staffer has said she filed a complaint back in 1993. But she does not have a record of this alleged complaint. The papers from my Senate years that I donated to the University of Delaware do not contain personnel files. It is the practice of Senators to establish a library of personal papers that document their public record: speeches, policy proposals, positions taken, and the writing of bills.

There is only one place a complaint of this kind could be – the National Archives. The National Archives is where the records are kept at what was then called the Office of Fair Employment Practices. I am requesting that the Secretary of the Senate ask the Archives to identify any record of the complaint she alleges she filed and make available to the press any such document. If there was ever any such complaint, the record will be there.

As a Presidential candidate, I’m accountable to the American people. We have lived long enough with a President who doesn’t think he is accountable to anyone, and takes responsibility for nothing. That’s not me. I believe being accountable means having the difficult conversations, even when they are uncomfortable. People need to hear the truth.

I have spent my career learning from women the ways in which we as individuals and as policy makers need to step up to make their hard jobs easier, with equal pay, equal opportunity, and workplaces and homes free from violence and harassment. I know how critical women’s health issues and basic women’s rights are. That has been a constant through my career, and as President, that work will continue. And I will continue to learn from women, to listen to women, to support women, and yes, to make sure women’s voices are heard.

We have a lot of work to do. From confronting online harassment, abuse, and stalking, to ending the rape kit backlog, to addressing the deadly combination of guns and domestic violence.

We need to protect and empower the most marginalized communities, including immigrant and indigenous women, trans women, and women of color.

We need to make putting an end to gender-based violence in both the United States and around the world a top priority.

I started my work over 25 years ago with the passage of the Violence Against Women Act. As president, I’m committed to finishing the job.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Bedlam »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-05-01 08:50am Because Biden has previously stated his support for MeToo, and said that women should be believed. And because Tara Reade's accusations are, as you've acknowledged yourself, credible.
So if you were accused of rape which you knew you had not done what would you do?

Would you lie and say that yes you did commit rape on the grounds that rape accusations should be believed or would you tell the truth?

I don't think there is a contradiction that you can support MeToo and that rape accusations should generally be believed even though you speak against specific allegation which you know to be untrue.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Bedlam wrote: 2020-05-01 09:36am
The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-05-01 08:50am Because Biden has previously stated his support for MeToo, and said that women should be believed. And because Tara Reade's accusations are, as you've acknowledged yourself, credible.
So if you were accused of rape which you knew you had not done what would you do?

Would you lie and say that yes you did commit rape on the grounds that rape accusations should be believed or would you tell the truth?

I don't think there is a contradiction that you can support MeToo and that rape accusations should generally be believed even though you speak against specific allegation which you know to be untrue.
Well, yeah. Whether Biden looks hypocritical therefore depends on whether you believe he is telling the truth, of course. I do not, I think Reade's story is credibile.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Ralin »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-05-01 08:50am Because Biden has previously stated his support for MeToo, and said that women should be believed. And because Tara Reade's accusations are, as you've acknowledged yourself, credible.

I'm also curious as to why, after numerous pages of essentially calling me a rape apologist for supporting Biden, you now appear to be reversing course and defending him. Gee, its almost like you're full of shit.
I was talking about a hypothetical situation where Biden was innocent, dumdum. Obviously.

If someone accused me of raping them and I knew I hadn't I'd call them a liar despite the fact that I default to assuming anyone who accuses someone of raping them is telling the truth unless I have specific reason to think otherwise. Not seeing anything hypocritical in this scenario.

I'd also expect people to assume I was guilty and think they'd be right to do so. Which would suck for me, but.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Some good news: Not only is Dickless's approval rating falling, its falling much faster in key swing states. While nationally its dropped six points, its fallen Holy Fuck 15 points in key swing states. He's even (slightly) at negative approval among White Christians in battleground states. Oof.

https://usnews.com/news/politics/articl ... -on-voters
PRESIDENT DONALD Trump's favorability rating in battleground states has plummeted 15 percentage points in the last month as the coronavirus pandemic has expanded, according to a new survey, daunting numbers for a president facing an economic collapse and public health crisis as he seeks re-election.

The poll by the nonpartisan group PRRI found that Trump, after hitting a 53% approval among voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina in March is down to a 38% approval rating. The drop was much more dramatic than Trump's 6-point drop in favorability nationally, from 49% approval in March to 43% in April, according to PRRI, which studies the intersection of religion with politics and public policy.

The president's relatively high March ratings were consistent with a "rally 'round the flag" effect political leaders tend to experience during a national crisis, the report noted. But the drop in approval – especially the dramatic decline in approval in the battleground states Trump won in 2016 and needs to do well in this year – suggests voters are unhappy with his handling of the coronavirus, a theme echoed in other polling.

Approval ratings are not necessarily consistent with election performance. Voters can be unhappy with the way a leader is doing his or her job but decide to cast a ballot for that person anyway, if they are more concerned with supporting a certain party or agenda.

For example, in the week before the November 2016 election, Trump had an anemic 35% approval rating, with 62% of American adults disapproving of him, according to tracking by Gallup. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a better – but still low – approval rating, with 40% of U.S. adults approving of her and 57% disapproving. Trump still won.

But the drop in battleground states at this stage of the campaign is a danger sign for the incumbent president, who is now being judged on what he has done and not just how he presents himself as a candidate.

"We're continuing to see cases and deaths (from the coronavirus) go up," says Robert Jones, CEO and founder of PRRI. The drop in approval is "a result of his inconsistent and kind of chaotic response.

"This is going to be immune from spin," Jones adds.

The PRRI numbers also show erosion nationally among some key parts of Trump's base.

His favorability among white Christians in battleground states dropped 27 percentage points from March to April, from 75% to 48% approval.

In 2016, 77% of white evangelical voters and 57% of white, mainline Christian voters cast ballots for Trump, according to a post-election analysis by the Pew Research Center.

Among religious voters groups, white, mainline Christian voters are a swing vote, Jones says. And more concerning for Trump, "they're dominant in the battleground states," so a drop in support could make a substantial difference in November.

Voters over 65 also soured somewhat of Trump from March to April, with the president's approval rating among those voters dropping from 56% to 42% during that time. Trump won 52% of the 65-and-older vote in 2016, according to exit polls, compared to 45% who voted for Clinton. Older voters are especially important in the retirement haven of Florida, as well as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all of which have percentages of senior voters that are higher than the national average.

Favorable views of Trump have also declined among white Americans without a college degree, from 66% approval in March to 54% in April. That group voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016, with 64% casting votes for Trump and 28% for Clinton, according to Pew.
Too early to get complacent, and Trump may just say fuck it and try to declare martial law/incite a revolt, but if this keeps up the Republicans are looking at a 2008 level curbstomping at best. Couldn't have happened to nicer guys.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

A very good, nuanced, and I think fair look at the Tara Reade story, and the dilemmas that it poses, particularly for female candidates and MeToo.

https://nytimes.com/2020/05/02/us/polit ... metoo.html
He may not have been their first choice.

They might have endorsed Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. They remembered, all too well, how he treated Anita Hill. They didn’t love what he called his “tactile” political style — the hugging, the touching — or that he seemed to laugh it off when confronted about it.

But he had championed the Violence Against Women Act. He had made progress on fighting campus sexual assault.

And — most importantly — he seemed to be the best bet to beat Donald Trump in November.

So, one by one, Democratic and progressive women diligently threw their weight behind Joseph R. Biden Jr. for president.

Then, with Mr. Biden the all-but-certain Democratic nominee, came Tara Reade. A former employee who had worked in Mr. Biden’s Senate office, Ms. Reade gave a podcast interview in late March, accusing him of sexually assaulting her in a Senate hallway in 1993.

On Friday, Mr. Biden, the former vice president, directly addressed the matter for the first time, forcefully denying that the incident took place. He did so in a conversation with Mika Brzezinski on the MSNBC show “Morning Joe,” though Ms. Brzezinski’s husband and co-host, Joe Scarborough, would sit this one out until the discussion moved on from Ms. Reade to the other news of the day. “It’s just going to be you and me,” Ms. Brzezinski told Mr. Biden.

It was 17 minutes of a cable television interview, and it was also a microcosm for the way this saga has played out: Women have been expected to discuss the allegation against Mr. Biden. Their male colleagues have not.

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The particulars of Ms. Reade’s account, and Mr. Biden’s denial, have pushed the #MeToo movement — and the politicians who supported it, like Mr. Biden himself — into uncomfortable territory.

After three years of calling on elected officials, journalists and corporations to “believe women,” the movement faces a case where the truth seems especially difficult, if not impossible, to establish. National news outlets, including The New York Times, have investigated Ms. Reade’s allegation, and this past week, two additional women came forward to corroborate parts of her story. Yet there is no formal organization tasked with examining Ms. Reade’s claim. No eyewitnesses to the encounter. And with nearly three decades passed, memories of staff members from that time have grown hazy.

The debate over how to assess claims about decades-old behavior is not new, but it rarely takes place in the context of a high-stakes presidential race — in this case a heated and viciously personal contest, in the midst of a pandemic, in which discussion of sexual misconduct is likely to be a constant backdrop. If liberal Democratic voters abandon Mr. Biden, it may strengthen the re-election chances of President Trump, who himself has been accused of sexual assault at least a dozen times — though he is rarely asked about it.

“That’s what makes this so difficult,” said Lucy Flores, a former Nevada state assemblywoman who wrote last spring about her discomfort with how Mr. Biden had kissed and touched her during a 2014 campaign event. “We acknowledge that this is a position of impossibility for so many women, and yet so many of us are willing to do the right thing — as in, we will vote for him despite this.”


ImageLucy Flores, a former Nevada state assemblywoman, wrote last spring about her discomfort with how Mr. Biden had kissed and touched her during a 2014 campaign event.
Lucy Flores, a former Nevada state assemblywoman, wrote last spring about her discomfort with how Mr. Biden had kissed and touched her during a 2014 campaign event.Credit...John Locher/Associated Press
And so, the burden has been placed on women to defend Mr. Biden, and to face accusations of hypocrisy from some on the right, that progressive men have not had to endure.

In the weeks that passed between Ms. Reade’s podcast interview and Mr. Biden’s response, it was Democratic women who were prompted to speak on his behalf — at times using the Biden campaign’s own talking points.

“I believe Joe Biden,” Stacey Abrams said. He’s a person of “great integrity,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said. Hillary Clinton offered her endorsement in a town-hall-style event, though the allegation was not addressed. Women’s rights organizations, from Emily’s List to Planned Parenthood to Time’s Up, were largely silent as many tried to privately pressure Mr. Biden into making a public statement. When Mr. Biden did make a statement, on Friday, several groups noted that he addressed the issue, crediting him for speaking out.

“My chief concern is watching all of these powerful, important women leaders staking their credibility to Biden when the fact is there’s been no real investigation,” said Michele Dauber, a law professor at Stanford and Democratic fund-raiser, who helped write the sexual misconduct policies for the California Democratic Party. (She also led the charge to remove the judge who presided over the Brock Turner sexual assault case, the first judge to be recalled in more than 80 years.)

The political action committee Professor Dauber chairs, the Enough is Enough Voter Project, has called for an independent investigation into the claims.

“If this is true, and there is no investigation, his candidacy or his presidency could implode over it” — and, she noted, could take #MeToo down with it.

‘Selectively interested in #MeToo’
In a statement to The Times late Friday, Anita Hill, whose 1991 testimony in the confirmation hearings for Justice Clarence Thomas was overseen by Mr. Biden, echoed that call for a neutral investigation.

“Joe Biden has denied Tara Reade’s sexual assault allegations, but that should not be the end of the inquiry,” said Ms. Hill, a professor of law at Brandeis University. Given the significance of this moment, she said, the allegations against both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump should be investigated, with results that are “made available to the public.”

“Without these essential elements, uncertainty about who to believe and whether it matters will continue,” she said. “How we proceed comes down to whether we take allegations of sexual violations seriously enough to insist that public institutions have fair procedures in place that protect individuals’ rights to come forward, and the rights of those who are accused to defend themselves.”

As many conservatives have noted, the response to Ms. Reade has appeared in stark contrast to the way that Democrats rallied around Christine Blasey Ford during the 2018 confirmation hearings of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, with Mr. Biden himself saying he believed that Dr. Blasey “should be given the benefit of the doubt.” The 2017 push for Al Franken to resign in the wake of sexual harassment allegations — an effort that divided Democrats — makes the moment even more fraught.

“Can we be anti-Kavanaugh and anti-Franken and then turn our heads?” said Samantha Ettus, co-founder of the Los Angeles Women’s Collective, which supports women running for office. (She said she was not speaking on behalf of her organization.) “I don’t think we can be selectively interested in #MeToo.”

Ms. Flores said the complex situation that women’s rights groups are facing today should ultimately lead to progress. “I do think that this will force an expanded conversation on what it means to ‘believe women’ given that the hypocrisy of that stance by Democratic and even some feminist leaders is on full display,” she added. This is a good thing, she said, because it “should have never been a catch phrase and, instead, been a full conversation of what it means to be a woman living in a fully male-dominated society.”

With Mr. Trump in the White House, and a country that is learning — very slowly — to reconsider the form that harassment and assault can take, Democrats have staked their political brand on the idea that all allegations should be taken seriously and that every woman has a right to be heard. But that doesn’t mean every woman is right when she speaks.

“I feel very trapped,” said Ana Maria Archila, the co-executive director of the progressive Center for Popular Democracy, of having to support Mr. Biden if he is the nominee. She was one of the two women whose confrontation of Jeff Flake, then a Republican member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, over how he would vote on Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation went viral.

“What motivated me to join the fight against Kavanaugh was the threat that he represented to my country,” Ms. Archila said. Now, she added, “I feel like we’re in this situation where in order to protect ourselves, we have to do something that might feel morally incoherent — which is to vote for someone who was accused of sexual assault.”

Ms. Archila, whose organization endorsed Mr. Sanders in the primary, said she would vote for Mr. Biden if he was the Democratic nominee.

‘We Are Stuck’
Tina Tchen, the head of Times Up Now, an organization dedicated to combating workplace harassment, drew a distinction between Dr. Blasey’s allegation and those of Ms. Reade’s. The Republican-controlled Senate had the power to investigate Judge Kavanaugh and instead, she argued, chose to rush him to confirmation. With Mr. Biden several years out of office, there’s no investigative body officially charged with looking into Ms. Reade’s claim.


ImageTina Tchen, the head of Times Up Now, an organization dedicated to combating workplace harassment, noted there’s no investigative body officially charged with looking into Ms. Reade’s claim now that Mr. Biden is out of office.
Tina Tchen, the head of Times Up Now, an organization dedicated to combating workplace harassment, noted there’s no investigative body officially charged with looking into Ms. Reade’s claim now that Mr. Biden is out of office.Credit...Erin Schaff for The New York Times
“There’s not an employer — he’s not in the Senate where the ethics committee might do it,” she said. “At the end of the day, the employer is essentially the American people so that’s why we are stuck. For American people, this is frustrating. It’s painful.”

Adding to the frustration was Mr. Biden waiting weeks to address the allegation — instead relying on top female Democratic leaders, from Ms. Pelosi to potential vice-presidential prospects like Senator Kamala Harris of California, to answer questions on his behalf.

“Joe Biden needs to speak for himself — not through surrogates or statements,” Tarana Burke, the founder of the #MeToo movement, wrote as part of a thread on Twitter.

Mr. Biden, who had done a mix of local and cable news appearances, was not asked on camera about the allegation until Friday.


ImageMichele Dauber, a law professor at Stanford and Democratic fundraiser, called the allegations “credible, with a high degree of corroboration.”
Michele Dauber, a law professor at Stanford and Democratic fundraiser, called the allegations “credible, with a high degree of corroboration.”Credit...Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press
In the interview with Ms. Brzezinski, Mr. Biden responded to the allegation with a clear denial — and by noting how long ago it supposedly took place.

“I don’t know why after 27 years all of a sudden this gets raised,” he said in the MSNBC interview. “I don’t understand it.”

Three years after #MeToo gave the country a crash course in sexual misconduct, the women being asked to defend Mr. Biden might be less confused by that gap in time.

But they are confounded by the choice — or lack of choice, they say — they will face in November, between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, whose own allegations of sexual misconduct and history of derogatory language about women have not been a significant liability for him with his Republican base, even as female voters flocked to Democrats in the midterms.

Women “know the polar difference between Biden and Trump, who brags about assaulting women in his private life and whose public policies endanger women’s health and safety,” Gloria Steinem said.


ImageAnita Hill has called for an investigation into the charges against Mr. Biden.
Anita Hill has called for an investigation into the charges against Mr. Biden.Credit...Elizabeth D. Herman for The New York Times
If the 2020 presidential election were an ethics class, it might be what Kate Manne, an associate professor of philosophy at Cornell University, describes to her undergraduates as a question of choosing a lesser of two evils. Do progressive voters put aside an accusation they may believe is credible for the sake of what they believe to be the greater good of the country?

“I myself would vote for Biden in the spirit of voting against Trump, even though I do think there’s a degree of complicity there,” said Professor Manne, the author of the forthcoming book, “Entitled: How Male Privilege Hurts Women.” She noted that, as a permanent resident, she is not in fact able to vote, so the question is hypothetical. “But sometimes we do have to get our hands dirty in order to achieve something that seems vital at this point for the sake of the wider world.”

Still, she added, the circumstances are “maximally depressing.”

“How did we get here?” she asked.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Dalton »

A lot of Tara Reade news today. She’s been cancelling interviews and has said that her complaints didn’t mention sexual assault or harassment. Her neighbor also is no longer sure of what they were told. https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/ ... 35397?s=21
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Dalton wrote: 2020-05-02 04:12pm A lot of Tara Reade news today. She’s been cancelling interviews and has said that her complaints didn’t mention sexual assault or harassment. Her neighbor also is no longer sure of what they were told. https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/ ... 35397?s=21
Before jumping on the "the woman is lying" bandwagon, it should be noted here that Tara Reade is disputing the AP's account of the interview:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256672559396864001

It should also be noted, again, that her complaint not directly mentioning sexual harassment or assault proves nothing- survivors of sexual abuse often are reluctant to come forward about everything immediately, for perfectly valid reasons (fear, shame, social stigma, etc.). This is often the case, its always used as "proof" that the woman is lying, and it never actually proves that. Of course, if those accusations aren't in the complaint, then it also won't corroborate those claims by Reade.

As to what her neighbor says- they back up her claim, then when it becomes a national political firestorm backtrack and start hedging their bets? I'm inclined to believe the first account was the genuine one there.

But I will say that there are a number of claims being made that should be very easy to provide documentation to refute or disprove.

1. Is there a complaint?

2. Does it mention harassment or assault? If not, what does it describe?

3. What did Tara Reade say to the AP, in full and unedited?

All of these things should be possible to establish, if the relevant documentation is made public.

A third party investigation should happen, looking at all the evidence and laying it out for the public to see.

Its just a God Damn shame that this conversation didn't happen three months ago, when there were still viable options other than "stick with Biden regardless of facts and run a massively compromised nominee in the general", "vicious brokered convention", or "throw the election to Trump." Regardless of Biden's guilt or innocence, the party leaders and the press failed shamefully to have this conversation when it needed to be had, so that the voters could make an informed choice.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Omega18 »

Dalton wrote: 2020-05-02 04:12pm A lot of Tara Reade news today. She’s been cancelling interviews and has said that her complaints didn’t mention sexual assault or harassment. Her neighbor also is no longer sure of what they were told. https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/ ... 35397?s=21
Completely separate from the AP interview, you also have the issue that Reade falsely previously asserted that MSNBC did not/refused to invite her for an interview while MSNBC is now confirming they previously had done so but she declined the interview.

Now maybe this could be somehow explained by a miscommunication by someone associated with Reade, but Reade has yet to explain the situation, and it appears she also made an at least misleading assertion in relation to the Washington Post's willingness to interview her.

Given none of Reade's potential witnesses backing her story are actually eyewitnesses, Reade's inherent credibility as a witness does apply and making a different basically provably false claim is an issue at this point.

(While theoretically MSNBC could have made an intentionally false claim with respect to an interview, in practice they clearly would not have not have done so given the extent of the potential massive blow-back if they got caught, and that they could be subject to discovery proceeding with respect to evidence since Reade could potentially pursue a libel lawsuit against them for a knowingly untrue claim like that at this point.)
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

On the plus side, she's cancelled her planned Fox interview. Regardless of whether she is telling the truth, it would not have done her credibility any good to accept an interview from an organization that is clearly only promoting her story for partisan reasons, frequently promotes demonstrably false conspiracy theories about Democrats, has a long history of employing and shielding sex abusers, and is currently doing all it can to reelect a serial rapist, so I am glad that she made the right choice there.

Mind you, I utterly sympathize if she cancels interviews, and it doesn't reduce her credibility to me- its clear that most of the mainstream press has sought to bury or discredit her story for a while, so I can imagine that makes her reluctant to engage with them.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Lindsey Graham's seat may be in danger:

https://newsweek.com/what-polls-say-abo ... ce-1501492

Trump's also getting massacred in both national and swing-state polling (and what constitutes a swing state looks to be expanding to include previously safe red states):

https://washingtonpost.com/politics/202 ... reason-be/
This post has been updated with new data from Georgia and a new poll of swing states.

By this point, it has become evident that President Trump has no appetite for bad news from campaign aides. After previously getting bad poll numbers and firing some of his pollsters, Trump this time trained his ire at campaign manager Brad Parscale.

As The Washington Post’s Josh Dawsey reports:

Aides described Trump as in a particularly foul mood last week because of the polling data and news coverage of his administration’s response to the pandemic, according to two of the people familiar with the discussions. In one call, he berated Parscale over the polling data, the two people said.

At one point in that call, Trump said he might sue Parscale, though one of the people with knowledge of the comments said he made the remark in jest. News of Trump’s eruption at Parscale was first reported Wednesday by CNN.

Trump told Parscale that he did not believe the polling that had been presented to him, even though it came from the campaign and the RNC.
“I’m not losing to Joe Biden,” Trump said at one point, both of these people said, adding that the president used profanities throughout the call.
Here’s the thing, though: He is losing to Joe Biden, and Trump didn’t need to look at internal data to see that. Those internal numbers only seem to affirm the crystallizing picture we’re seeing from public polling.

In the month-plus since Trump saw a momentary bump in his approval rating early in the coronavirus outbreak, we’ve begun to see polling in key states trickle out. And the numbers don’t just suggest that Trump trails in the three all-important battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — they also suggest that he might have to fend Biden off in some states that should be relatively safe. And if he is losing or even just struggling in these kinds of states, Trump will have a very difficult time piecing together the 270 electoral votes he needs.

Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than one point each in 2016, allowing him a reasonably sizable electoral vote margin despite losing the popular vote against Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. But the most recent polls in those states have Trump down three points (albeit within the margin of error) in Wisconsin, down between three and eight in Michigan, and down between six and eight in Pennsylvania. Losses in all three of them would probably seal Trump’s fate, and winning just one of the three also would make a path to victory difficult.

While we will be training our focus on those states in the months ahead, they may not even hold the worst warning signs for Trump. Witness:

A new poll in the only other state that was decided by less than a point in 2016 — New Hampshire — shows Biden up eight points.
A new poll in long-red Texas, which Trump carried by nine points last time, is virtually tied.
North Carolina, which Trump carried by two points, is either virtually tied or has Biden up by five.
In ruby-red Utah, one poll even showed Biden within five points (though another has Trump comfortably in front).
Arizona, a looming potential swing state that went for Trump by 3.5 points, has Biden up between three and nine points.
An internal GOP poll in another state turning from red to purple, Georgia, has a virtual tie.
Ohio, a former vital swing state that swung for Trump by a remarkable eight points, has Biden up four.
In the other traditionally all-important state of Florida, which Trump won by just more than a point, Biden leads by between three and five points.

The picture in these states is relatively consistent. They show a shift of at least four points from the 2016 margins — all in the Democrats’ direction — and often significantly more than that.

If Biden is truly a slight favorite in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that says plenty. But if you give him a shot in some of these other traditionally red states, the number of electoral votes available to him dwarfs the ones available to Trump.

In fact, if you overlay these numbers on the 2016 map and assume that the other states would fall as they did then, Biden currently has the inside track on winning as many as 352 electoral votes — more than double the 132 for which Trump is favored.

(It’s important to note that many of these states are close enough that we wouldn’t necessarily characterize them as “leaning” toward one candidate or another, but the limited polling we have suggests Biden has a slight lead in many of them, so we’re including them for argument’s sake.)

Even if we allow that Arizona, Georgia and Texas aren’t about to go blue just yet and maybe Biden’s slight edge in Ohio won’t hold up — which seem to be legitimate assumptions — Biden is still winning in states accounting for 323 electoral votes, compared with 215 for Trump.

All of this is also bolstered by new data from the Public Religion Research Institute, which has been surveying a series of swing states and showed Trump’s favorability rating in them dropping from 53 percent in March to 38 percent today

This comes with all the usual caveats: It’s still very early, and plenty will change. Also, polls aren’t destiny, as we saw in 2016, when a few of the most important states had polls that just weren’t accurate. (Though we’d expect pollsters in those states to have learned a lesson for this time.)

But it’s worth noting that the growing volume of polling evidence we’re seeing suggests Biden is expanding the map and Trump is losing ground from his narrow 2016 win in just about every corner of the country. National polls are criticized for not reflecting the electoral college, but Biden’s edge in those national polls seems to be borne out consistently across the country in these state polls.

That doesn’t mean Biden is the clear favorite or this isn’t a close race. But it does mean Trump should probably be paying attention to and reacting to those poor internal numbers — even if he doesn’t want to.
As alluded to above, polls showed Hillary winning in 2016, so its too early to assume anything. But so far, Trump looks to be in trouble.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Dalton »

Jaime Harrison was recently out-fundraising Graham but I’d be more worried about NC - polls don’t look good there for Tillis or Donny.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

On the other hand, Trump's disapproval rating just sharply dropped on fivethirtyeight. Not sure why his disapproval would drop almost two points (to just above 50%) in the last few days...

Oh, wait, states have started lifting lockdowns, but it hasn't been long enough for the subsequent spike in infections and deaths to hit, so all the covidiots think we're going back to normal. That's probably it.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

New polling shows Warren is Democrats' most popular pick for VP, and the candidate Democrats believe would be best able to respond to coronavirus and implement policy to help wthe working class:

https://vox.com/policy-and-politics/202 ... -2020-poll
Sen. Elizabeth Warren may not be the likeliest vice-presidential pick for Joe Biden, but she’s emerging as the running mate Democratic voters would prefer most — and who they believe would be best for the job.

In a Data for Progress poll shared exclusively with Vox, the Massachusetts senator ranked first as the vice-presidential candidate likely Democratic voters think is most ready to be president and would be best at handling the coronavirus pandemic and implementing policies, including those that benefit working-class people.

Forty-two percent of poll respondents said they believe Warren is most ready to be president, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris at 15 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 9 percent, former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams at 7 percent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 4 percent, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto at 3 percent. Nearly 20 percent of respondents said they didn’t know. Warren ranks significantly better than the other candidates surveyed across gender, age, and education. But among black voters, she is basically tied with Harris and Abrams.


Data for Progress
Warren outpolled the other potential contenders on nearly every measure. She’s the most preferred vice presidential candidate, with 31 percent support, and the pick Democrats are likeliest to say would make them more inclined to vote for Biden. It is also worth noting that Warren is among the vice presidential contenders with the highest name identification among voters — she ran for president for longer than most of the 2020 field, and she’s a famous figure.

Warren endorsed Biden in April, saying in an endorsement video the former vice president “knows that a government run with integrity, competence, and heart will save lives and save livelihoods.” In the video, she also nodded at their past disagreements. “One thing I appreciate about Joe Biden is that he will always tell you where he stands. When you disagree, he’ll listen — and not just listen, but really hear you, and treat you with respect no matter where you’re coming from.”

Warren, who suspended her own White House run in March, has also been open that she would agree to be Biden’s running mate if asked.

Data for Progress conducted the survey of 605 Democratic likely voters using web panel respondents on April 26. The results have been weighted, and the margin of error is ± 3.9 percent.

Elizabeth Warren would be a highly capable vice president. But politically, she might not be the best pick.
So here is the thing about Elizabeth Warren: She is an incredibly competent politician and policy wonk. She went from being a school teacher to a Harvard law professor, was a crucial player in congressional oversight of the 2008 bailout, conceived of and helped build the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and is among the most focused and shrewd lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

On the campaign trail, she rolled out plan after plan to address dozens of issues, and even after wrapping her presidential bid, the plans keep coming. As the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic and the accompanying economic crisis it’s brought with it, Warren is someone many people would want to have in the room shaping decisions and coming up with ideas. She understands the levers of power within the government better than many. And as a political pick for Biden, she appeals to the progressive voters he is looking to court.

But Warren also has some political drawbacks as a potential VP pick. Biden’s electoral college path to the White House runs through a mix of the Rustbelt and the Sunbelt, As Vox’s Ella Nilsen wrote, it’s not clear an “unapologetic liberal Democrat representing Massachusetts” will be a boost on that front. She’s very useful and effective in the Senate, and it’s not clear she would be more so as a vice president.

Moreover, Massachusetts has a Republican governor who would be charged with choosing a temporary replacement if she gives up her seat. The governor would have to hold a special election 145 to 160 days after a vacancy arises, but that also covers the first 100 days of a presidency. Biden has said he will definitely choose a woman to be his running mate, but he’s also come under pressure to choose a woman of color.

Whatever Biden’s choice, this latest poll shows that many Democrats do, indeed, like Elizabeth Warren, and they view her as the most capable VP pick to do the job of president if need be — or at least, the potential candidate that they are most familiar with. Of course, Democrats also had the choice of having her as their presidential nominee. But that ship has sailed.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Omega18 »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-05-02 04:44pm Before jumping on the "the woman is lying" bandwagon, it should be noted here that Tara Reade is disputing the AP's account of the interview:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256672559396864001
I would note that Tara Reade has now admitted that the AP account itself was accurate, she is merely arguing that the headline was misleading.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tara-read ... -complaint
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

While I am wary of any reporting on the subject at this point, she does not appear to have presented her arguments very consistently. That does not mean she is lying (if she was, then why did she apparently tell multiple people this story years ago, then sit on it until now?), but it will make it easier to cast doubt on her case.

Unfortunately, there's probably no way to prove or disprove it definitively, and its too big now to go away, which means that we run with a badly compromised nominee and it'll be used to discredit the Democrats and MeToo and all future reports of sexual abuse. The people who sat on this story a month or two ago have a lot to answer for.

The one silver lining in this, if you can call it that, is that covid and the recession are going to utterly dominate this election, and it's going to be a referendum on the handling of that over everything else. So basically, the Democrats ran a deeply shitty nominee, but probably most people won't notice or care because the pandemic will overshadow everything else.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Primary update:

Kansas just held there's, all by mail, with a resulting THREE TIMES the turnout of the 2016 Kansas caucus:

https://cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-wins ... omination/

Biden won easily, as he has won every contest since Sanders took the Northern Mariana Islands caucus on March 14th. Sanders has won only three since Super Tuesday, the others being Democrats Abroad and North Dakota (although Washington and Idaho were close), and none since he suspended his campaign. However, he has continued to win at least some delegates in every contest, having accumulated by my count a total of 363 delegates since Super Tuesday, and 40 in the four contests held since he suspended his campaign. He is now at 973, which if my math is right, is only 23 delegates short of the 25% needed to qualify for committee representation (though I'm not sure if that still applies after the deal he made with Biden):

https://nbcnews.com/politics/2020-prima ... gate-count

I would argue that the fact that Sanders has continued to accumulate so many delegates, and that NOT ONE STATE has been enough of a blow-out for him to get zero despite the pandemic and Biden being the presumptive nominee, is a fairly strong demonstration of the strength and loyalty of Sanders' support, and will put continued pressure on Biden to stay true to his word to work with Sanders and progressives.

Biden, meanwhile, has now moved within 600 delegates of a majority.

In an unrelated note, more bad news for Lindsey Graham- the former chairman of Michelin, Richard Wilkerson, has switched his support from Graham to his opponent, Democrat Jaime Harrison:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -in-senate
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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