SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[The Romulan Republic]

Biden now leading by double-digits:

https://politico.com/news/2020/06/03/jo ... uth-298470

Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump has grown despite his absence from the campaign trail, a new poll released Wednesday shows, putting the presumptive Democratic nominee ahead by double-digits.

The Monmouth University poll shows Biden with an 11-point nationwide lead over the president, 52 percent to Trump’s 41 percent among registered voters. That gap is wider than it was in May, when Biden had the support of 50 percent of respondents to Trump’s 41 percent. It’s significantly larger than the gap just before Biden locked up the Democratic nomination in March, when polls showed a much closer, 3-point race.

Wednesday’s survey indicated that the nationwide unrest over the past week, stemming from the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, by police, is weighing on the minds of a significant slice of voters, with Trump earning worse marks on race relations amid the upheaval.

One-in-3 voters said race relations will play a major role in their vote for president, though nearly half, 49 percent, said the issue would not factor into their decision at all. Seventeen 17 percent said race relations would play a minor role in their vote.

White voters (27 percent) were less likely than voters of color (44 percent) to call race relations a major factor in their vote, the poll found, and Biden has the advantage when it comes to voters’ confidence in addressing racial inequities, along with a 51-point lead over the president among voters of color.

This could pose an issue for the president, whose campaign had sought to make inroads with black voters ahead of November’s election. Biden, meanwhile, has used the events of the last week to ratchet up the contrast between himself and the president, though Wednesday's poll was conducted before Trump threatened to use the military to end raging protests and Biden delivered a speech rebuking Trump for his handling of the crisis.

The Monmouth poll found that slightly over half of those polled expressed at least some degree of trust in Biden’s ability to handle race relations, compared with only 4-in-10 who said the same of Trump.

Trump did hold an advantage in the degree to which respondents had confidence in him to address race relations — 22 percent said they had a great deal of confidence in the president on the issue versus 17 percent who said the same of Biden. Still, exactly half of those polled said they had no confidence at all in Trump to handle racial issues.

When it comes to the parallel crisis unfolding in America, the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout, the Monmouth survey found the vice president with another advantage. Just over half, 54 percent, said they have either a great deal or some confidence in Biden to lead the recovery, while just under half, 47 percent, said the same of the president.

On the twin issues of the economy and the coronavirus, respondents were more likely to express a great deal of confidence in Trump — 33 percent — than Biden — 18 percent — to lead the nation’s recovery. Nearly three-quarters of respondents who identified as Republicans said they have a great deal of confidence in Trump, compared with a nearly identical percentage who said they have no confidence at all in Biden. Among those polled who identified as Democrats, just 34 percent have a great deal of confidence in Biden, while 7-in-10 have no confidence at all in Trump’s ability to handle the recovery.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by phone from May 28 to June 1 among 807 adults, including 742 registered voters. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Trump has more die-hard supporters, it seems, but overall, he's polling worse on both race relations and the economy.

[Gaid]

Biden now leading by double-digits:

https://politico.com/news/2020/06/03/jo ... uth-298470

Trump has more die-hard supporters, it seems, but overall, he's polling worse on both race relations and the economy.

Thing is, Trump is stoking the base. But since 1988 when have we had a party not win their base? Trump doesn't need to stoke his base. He needs to campaign his center. Nevermind all the other current events that are going awkwardly wrong for campaigning right now.

And Biden staying quiet and under cover while Trump just...talked...was remarkably smart. And then when the protests started Biden came out and struck. Look, people know Biden's tendency for gaffes. Biden knows Biden's tendency for gaffes. So, if him not walking around crowds because governors tells him not to and Trump screws up press conferences. And then Biden gets this right.

Not a done deal though. They don't call it an October Surprise for nothing. Just a matter of who.

[The Romulan Republic]

A good article on why, against all odds and experience, Biden may be the right man for this moment:

https://theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2 ... w-/612598/

When Joe Biden entered this presidential race, he was flayed as an ally of segregation. Kamala Harris chided him for his defense of busing. His opponents roundly portrayed him as an architect of mass incarceration and an apologist for Strom Thurmond—as a clubbable senator not particularly bothered about the moral character of the backs he slapped.

These attacks were leveled not to suggest that Biden was a racial revanchist, but to reinforce a widely shared criticism of the man: He is not a visionary, but a malleable politician, with a barometrically attuned sense of the good.

But in Philadelphia yesterday, Biden delivered perhaps the most thorough-going and hard-hitting critique of American racial inequities ever uttered by a major presidential nominee. Certainly, no nominee has ever proposed such a robust agenda for curbing the abusiveness of police, and with such little rhetorical hedging.

In the face of upheaval, he’s given reason to hope that the traits that were his supposed weaknesses could prove to be his great strengths. If one of the ultimate purposes of protest is to push politicians, he’s shown himself a politician willing to be pushed. His tendency to channel the zeitgeist has supplied him with the potential to meet a very difficult moment.

One of the alleged truisms about older people is that they are cemented into ideological place. Their minds are said to have limited ability to switch political lanes. But in the past few months, Biden has altered his worldview. At the beginning of his candidacy, he announced himself as the tribune of normalcy. Donald Trump was a pathogen that had attacked the American host—and Biden would provide the cleansing presence that would permit a reversion to a pre-Charlottesville status quo.

What was so striking about his speech in Philadelphia was that it acknowledged that he had gotten it wrong. The country couldn’t return to a prelapsarian state of tolerance, because one didn’t exist. “I wish I could say that hate began with Donald Trump and will end with him. It didn’t and it won’t. American history isn’t a fairy tale with a guaranteed happy ending.” Faith in progress is the nostrum of liberal politics, yet Biden broke with that faith in Philadelphia, and by so doing, he seemed to concede his own failure to appreciate the depths of American racism.

Since the beginning of quarantine, Biden has been chided for disappearing from view—and he receives strangely little media attention when he does rear his head. Over the past few days, for example, he’s treated the protests with deference, something cable news has largely ignored. When he met with activists who berated the Obama administration’s record on race, he didn’t react defensively. Instead, he studiously took notes. The relatively few images that circulate show him engaged in the empathetic poses that so often seem overwrought, but that also project openness and respect. In a church in Wilmington, Delaware, he dropped to his knee, a position obviously reminiscent of Colin Kaepernick but also a stance of self-abasement in the face of awe-inspiring anger.

So much American history has transpired since early February, it’s easy to forget that Biden’s candidacy was salvaged in the South Carolina primary. In the aftermath of that victory, he spoke about the debt he owed to black voters. There’s a chance that this was, to borrow a phrase, malarkey. But in the former vice president’s antiquated style, where one’s word is supposed to be stronger than oak, this debt has already guided him to stake his candidacy on a clear statement of solidarity with the protests.

More than other figures in the Democratic Party, Biden can speak warmly about the protesters without risking political backlash. With his gaffes, which sometimes veer toward the politically incorrect, he’s hardly an easily caricatured avatar of wokeness. His penchant for cringeworthy remarks, and his old-time mannerisms, help cushion whatever anxiety some white voters might have about his tough criticisms of police and blunt condemnations of systemic racism.

On Monday, George Floyd’s brother spontaneously addressed a crowd at the site of his brother’s killing, clutching a bullhorn. Through his mourning, he tried to guide the shape of the protest movement that had risen in his brother’s name. He pleaded, “Educate yourself and know who you vote for. That’s how you’re going to get it. It’s a lot of us. Do this peacefully.”

It was as if he were distilling a body of political-science research that has shown why so many protest movements around the globe have fizzled out these past decades. Social media permit the quick gathering of crowds, but without the organizational infrastructure or robust agenda that can sustain a true movement. Terrence Floyd was urging something different: He wanted the crowds in the streets to think politically.

The challenge for the Biden candidacy is to bridge an alliance with a resurgent left. Biden, a creature of the Senate, has to convince young people rushing to the barricades that he’s worth a trip to the polls. And the challenge for the left is to accept that Biden is its greatest chance of achieving its long-held dreams. What he’s demonstrated over the past week is a willingness to play the role of tribune, to let the moment carry him to a new place.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.

[Darth Yan]

Biden goes with the moment. Even when he supported busing being deintegrated he was doing what a lot of his voters wanted. I think that Biden, for all that he's an old dinosaur, is willing to see the writing on the wall and decides to embrace the change. That's......not idealistic but it is a smart move and makes him better than trump

[The Romulan Republic]

Yup, the general consensus reg. Biden seems to be that he is someone who follows the mainstream of the Democratic Party wherever it goes. He likes to be in the party center, and he's responsive to voters. That may not make him a principled idealist, but it makes him a hell of a lot better as a leader of a democracy than someone like Trump.

[The Romulan Republic]

More excellent polling news for Biden.

These aren't outliers. Multiple highly respected pollsters are giving Biden double-digit leads, and Trump's approval rating is dipping closer toward the negatives even on his strongest issue (the economy):

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06 ... large.html

With so much happening in the country right now, you’d be excused for forgetting there is a high-stakes presidential contest going on between Joe Biden and the man who is in full bellow in the White House at present. But those of us doomed to stare at polls are here to tell you that for whatever reason in this hyperpolarized campaign year, Biden is beginning to open up a significant lead in trial heats.

When I did a six-months-out analysis in early May, Biden’s lead in the RealClearPolitics polling averages was 5.3 percent. As of this morning, it was up to 8.0 percent, higher than at any point since last December. And his own polling number is 49.9 percent, on the brink of a popular vote majority. If survey quality matters to you, new polls from two A-plus pollsters (per FiveThirtyEight) put Biden’s lead at 52/41 (Monmouth) and 53/43 (ABC–WaPo).

By comparison with other recent Democratic presidential candidates, Biden is doing pretty well at this point in the cycle:

RCP poll leads on this day in history:

2020: Biden +8.0
2016: Clinton +1.5
2012: Obama +1.3
2008: Obama +1.4

I think people generally remember the Obama wins as much easier and more predictable than they were.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 3, 2020
Trump’s job-approval average at RCP (43.5 percent) is also at its lowest level since December of last year. And even Trump’s job-approval rating for handling the economy — his public opinion redoubt — is finally sagging a bit. At ABC–WaPo, it has dropped from 58 percent in January, to 57 percent in March, to 54 percent now.

In battleground state polling, Biden’s ahead of Trump in the RCP averages for Arizona (47/44), Florida (48/45), Michigan (47/42), North Carolina (46.2/46.0), Pennsylvania (48/44), and Wisconsin (46/44). These are not big leads, but since Trump took all six of these states, which collectively award 101 electoral votes, in 2016, it’s an indication of the broad front on which the president is on the defensive.

There’s a long way to go until November, with the possibility of change as obvious as everything that’s been turned upside down since March. But Donald Trump is not in good shape for an incumbent whose country is experiencing a deadly pandemic, an economic collapse, and chaos in the streets. And Joe Biden’s not doing badly for a man whose candidacy looked completely dead after a fifth place finish in New Hampshire less than four months ago.

Comparing the strength of his lead to Obama's and Clinton''s at this point in the race is particularly striking.

Of course, the flip side is that with massive voter suppression and Trump doing everything he can to undermine the legitimacy of the results, a double-digit lead may be just barely enough this time.

[The Romulan Republic]

Senator Lisa Murkowski endorses General Mattis's condemnation of Trump, say's she's "struggling" with supporting Trump.

https://forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender ... bf7681a72c

TOPLINE Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told reporters she’s “struggling” with whether to vote for President Trump in November while praising an op-ed written by Trump’s former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in which he called the president a threat to the Constitution.

“I am struggling with it. I have struggled with it for a long time,” Murkowski told reporters when asked if she would vote to reelect Trump.

She also praised Mattis’ op-ed, in which he said Trump “tries to divide us,” as “true and honest and necessary and overdue.”

“When I saw Gen. Mattis’ comments yesterday I felt like perhaps we’re getting to the point where we can be more honest with the concerns we might hold internally and have the courage of our convictions and speak up,” she added.

However, Murkowski affirmed that Trump is “our duly elected president” and said she would “continue to work with this administration.”

“I think right now as we are all struggling to find ways to express the words that need to be expressed appropriately, questions about who I’m going to vote for [or] not going to vote for I think are distracting at the moment,” she concluded.

Trump shot back harshly on Thursday evening, tweeting, “few people know where they’ll be in two years from now, but I do, in the Great State of Alaska (which I love) campaigning against Senator Lisa Murkowski.”

He added that he would endorse any candidate who runs against Murkowski, “good or bad,” declaring, “I don’t care, I’m endorsing. If you have a pulse, I’m with you!”

KEY BACKGROUND
Murkowski has a long history of bucking her party, and Trump in particular. In 2010, she lost a primary challenge for her Senate seat, but mounted a successful write-in campaign in the general election. She withdrew her endorsement of Trump in 2016 following the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape, and in 2017 she provided a pivotal vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act. However, she has also voted for the vast majority of Trump's favored legislation, and she voted to acquit him during his impeachment trial in February.

CHIEF CRITIC
Many on the left said that Murkowski’s words weren’t strong enough to constitute a bold rebuke. “After all that's happened, Lisa Murkowski is still ‘struggling’ with whether to support Trump. These Republican senators are cowards, and not one of them deserves to hold any public office,” CNN commentator Keith Boykin tweeted.

NEWS PEG
Trump’s actions during the pandemic have drawn an unusual number of rebukes from Republicans in Congress, which have become even more acute as Trump has struggled to respond to protests in response to the death of George Floyd. Trump has also had difficulty maintaining support for his reelection bid among the Republican establishment, with an NRSC memo instructing GOP senators not to defend him on the campaign trail. With Biden overwhelmingly winning independents in a recent Monmouth poll, Trump will need complete unity among Republicans in order to win reelection.

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Andrew Solender
Andrew Solender

Seriously? You're "struggling"? What exactly would it take to convince you?

Still, any weakness or wavering in Republican ranks increases Biden's chances.

[Gaid]

Meh. Well, personally I'd be impressed with just that but her election isn't until 2022 as it is. The press was jumping Senators running this year in the halls all day and they wouldn't say even this much.

[The Romulan Republic]

According to Fivethirtyeight's tracking, BOTH Trump's approval rating and disapproval rating have dipped in the last few days. I'm not sure what to make of that.

[The Romulan Republic]

Joe neck and neck with Trump in Texas poll, trailing by one point. Various polls show a tie or single digits lead for Trump. Trump is also in negative approval ratings in Texas:

https://usnews.com/news/elections/artic ... texas-poll

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP is at risk of losing the Republican Party's most essential prize this November, polling neck-and-neck with presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in Texas, according to a survey released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.

The president has the support of 44% of registered voters in the Lone Star State, according to the poll, with Biden getting the backing of 43% of voters. Trump leads among Republicans, men, whites and people 50 and older, the study found.

Who Will Be Biden’s Vice Presidential Candidate?
Former US Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the First State Democratic Dinner in Dover, Delaware, on March 16, 2019. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
View All 11 Slides
Biden, meanwhile, is favored among Democrats, independents, women, African Americans, Hispanics and people 18-49. That coalition is likely to be a winning one in future elections, as the nation moves toward majority-minority status, say experts who study the "rising American electorate" of younger and minority voters.

This year, those dynamics make for a close race in a state that has long been a GOP stronghold. Texas has 38 Electoral College votes to offer, making it the second biggest potential haul after California, which has 55 Electoral votes. Since California, New York and Illinois are now reliably Democratic in presidential elections, it would be virtually impossible for a Republican candidate to win the White House without taking Texas.

"Too tight to tell in Texas. As the country confronts chaos and COVID-19, perhaps one of the most important states of all is a toss-up," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.

[ READ: Democracy Demographics: The Data Behind the Votes ]
Texas is still considered an uphill battle for a Democrat; while urbanization and increasing power by Latino voters has resulted in Democratic pickups in U.S. House and local races, the state is still considered conservative. All nine statewide elected offices are now held by Republicans.

But polling shows that Trump is on shaky ground in a state that should be assuredly in the Republican column. A Dallas Morning News poll in April had the two men tied; other polls give Trump a lead over Biden in the low single digits.

That means that even if Texas is still a bit out of reach for Democrats, Republicans can't just take it for granted anymore, and will likely need to spend money advertising and campaigning there.

Trump took Texas in 2016 by 9 percentage points – a smaller margin than his win in once-Democratic Iowa. And former Rep. Beto O'Rourke came within just a few percentage points of ousting GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.

The Quinnipiac poll found that half of Texas voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, with 42% approving of him. Biden's favorability rating is 38%, with 45% disapproving. Another 14% say they don't have enough information about Biden to make a judgment, suggesting the Democrat has an opportunity to expand his support there.

As noted above, even if Trump can eke out a win in Texas, doing so will likely require the Republican Party to commit substantial resources to defending Texas it wouldn't have had to in the past- resources which it will then NOT be spending in other swing states.

[The Romulan Republic]

Biden is working to address lack of enthusiasm among younger voters- particularly young black voters:

https://politico.com/news/2020/06/05/bl ... den-301850

In late January, Black Lives Matter commissioned eight focus groups of young black voters in swing states to drill down on a problem for Democrats since Barack Obama left office: why they weren’t excited to vote. One black man from Philadelphia told a pollster that his mother and grandfather had voted over the years, and “all of them got nothing. So why should I participate in the same process?"

The focus groups were conducted before unrest swept the country in response to the killing of George Floyd at the hands of police. It also preceded the outbreak of a pandemic that’s ravaged the country and an economic downturn that’s left more than 40 million unemployed.

At the center of all three crises are black Americans.

In response, Democrats have urged African Americans to channel their frustrations into voting. But for younger black voters, many of whom are protesting in dozens of American cities, that requires trust in a system that they believe has done little for them or their families. Joe Biden is struggling to connect with young voters, particularly those of color, according to public and private polling — a serious problem for the former vice president that started during the presidential primary.

This week’s demonstrations are an inflection point for the Democratic Party that could engage these voters or further alienate them from the political process, according to more than a dozen Democratic pollsters, strategists, organizers and lawmakers. The difference-maker for Democrats in November, they said, isn’t whether President Donald Trump will peel off a small proportion of black men as he's trying to do — but whether Biden can persuade young black voters in battleground states not to sit out the election.

“This is a moment where people are disillusioned in institutions,” said Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, a grassroots organization that works to mobilize black and brown voters from economically marginalized communities. “I'm worried that a lot of our first-time voters, and a lot of them are young voters, are going ... to completely opt out of the system.”

Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster who worked on Obama’s campaigns, called the protests an “opportunity to reconnect and reengage this cynical and disillusioned segment of the electorate.” But he warned that for Democrats, young black men “were the most problematic” for the party, since that group’s participation dropped the most from 2012 to 2016.

“But there’s also ample opportunity for Democrats to [screw] this up,” Belcher added.

Democratic margins among African Americans dropped 3 percentage points from 2016 to 2018, according to data from Democratic data firm Catalist. The slip sparked some speculation among Democrats that Trump and the GOP might be gaining traction among nonwhite voters. But Catalist as well as several Democratic pollsters said the decline wasn’t surprising because midterm electorates tend to tilt conservative, and maintained that support for Democrats among black voters has remained steady.

Biden will no doubt win a large majority of black voters, at least 9 in 10 of whom have voted for Democrats in recent elections. Democratic pollsters said the party should worry less about Trump winning over black men and more about those who are ambivalent about Biden and the party.

The must-win swing voters for Democrats, said Nse Ufgot, executive director of New Georgia Project, “are people who swing between not voting and voting, not necessarily between parties.” Ufgot’s group registers and mobilizes young black voters in Georgia, a state Democrats think they could make competitive.

Trump at times does emphasize issues of importance to black men, including with his Super Bowl ad on criminal justice reform and the economy, said Justin Myers, CEO of the progressive group For Our Future. But Myers called the president’s outreach “lip service” aimed at “trying to suppress the vote” of black men.

Even as Trump’s campaign tries to court black men, the president casts black people as outside his base and outside of his movement: “MAGA loves the black people,” Trump said Saturday on his way to the SpaceX launch in Florida.

A Monmouth University poll released this week found that Biden won voters under 35 by 25 percentage points. But only a third of young voters viewed the presumptive nominee favorably, versus 59 percent who viewed him unfavorably. Trump’s favorability among young voters is worse — two-thirds of them have a negative view of him. Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling has also found that Biden has less support among black men under 50 (70 percent) than among black women (92 percent).

“They don’t want Trump to win, but the question is: Can you convince them that they want Biden to win? That difference — between not wanting Trump and wanting Biden — that’s the difference we’re seeking for turning out thousands of votes in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” said Josh Ulibarri, a Democratic pollster.

To win over young African Americans, Biden might need to acknowledge his past support for strict police tactics and a criminal justice system that’s long discriminated against minorities, said black organizers and Democratic operatives in swing states.

Biden’s record — including collaborating with segregationists in the Senate and sponsoring the 1994 federal crime bill — emerged as a stumbling block during the primaries. Bernie Sanders, not Biden, won swaths of young voters and “there are subsets of the younger population that … continue to be a challenge” for Biden, said Ben Tulchin, who worked as Sanders’ main pollster.

Young people who did not back Biden in the primary "are the same ones who are protesting in the streets right now, who hold his political record as responsible for the pain they are feeling right now,” said Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster who conducted the focus groups for Black Lives Matter earlier this year. “There is some atonement that needs to happen there.”

Biden responded quickly to Floyd’s death, calling it “a wake-up call for our nation.” He drew a line between the enslavement of African Americans and police violence against them, and called for a national use-of-force protocol.

Biden’s campaign cut a digital ad from a speech he gave on the protests in Philadelphia, featuring footage of the protests, and started airing it in battleground states this week. In May, he released a policy plan for black Americans, prioritizing prosecution of hate crimes.

“It was a good first step, but this is not going to happen overnight,” said Tharon Johnson, a Georgia-based Democratic strategist who works with Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who’s been mentioned as a long-shot prospect for vice president. “For Biden, this is not so much about talking as it is about listening.”

In other news, Google confirms that China unsuccessfully attempted to hack Biden campaign accounts, and that Iran also attacked Trump's campaign. Meanwhile, Russia is continuing its efforts against Democrats, as well as, it seems, some Republicans:

https://nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/polit ... ckers.html

WASHINGTON — Chinese hackers are targeting the personal email accounts of campaign staff members working for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Google said on Thursday, while confirming previous reports that Iran has targeted President Trump’s campaign.

In disclosing the attempts, Google’s chief of threat analysis, Shane Huntley, who oversees the tracking of state-sponsored, sophisticated hacking, said there was no evidence yet that the Chinese hackers had pierced Mr. Biden’s campaign. The attacks appear to be conventional spear-phishing attacks, similar to the Russian breach of John D. Podesta’s personal emails in 2016, when he was Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

But Google’s announcement on Thursday underscored the fact that during the 2020 election, Russian hackers, who combined hacking and disinformation in the last presidential election cycle, will not be alone. Even before Google’s announcement — posted on Twitter — security experts warned that Russian hackers would be joined by those from other American adversaries.

Mr. Biden’s campaign said in a statement that “we are aware of reports from Google that a foreign actor has made unsuccessful attempts to access the personal email accounts of campaign staff.”

It added: “We have known from the beginning of our campaign that we would be subject to such attacks and we are prepared for them. Biden for President takes cybersecurity seriously, we will remain vigilant against these threats, and will ensure that the campaign’s assets are secured.”

The motivations for such attempts could be many. China already has major espionage assets aimed at the Trump administration and other parts of the United States government, so going after the president’s campaign infrastructure may be redundant — and less interesting than anything that can be elicited from the Defense Department, the State Department or American intelligence agencies.

But Mr. Biden’s views on China, which have evolved as tensions with Beijing have risen, are more of a mystery to Chinese intelligence.

And if Mr. Biden wins, any success at piercing the emails of his top aides could be useful, especially during a transition of power. Google, Microsoft and other companies have offered campaigns help in securing both their official and private accounts, and in enrolling staff members in security programs that are often used by journalists, aid workers or government officials.

Google has alerted Gmail users to state-sponsored email threats with automated warnings in recent years, but in this case Google employees personally briefed Mr. Biden’s campaign on what they called a “high priority” threat in virtual meetings on Thursday, according to two people familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to discuss them publicly.

The Chinese interest in campaigns is hardly new. In 2008, Justice Department and F.B.I. officials approached Barack Obama’s campaign — at a time when Mr. Biden was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and running for vice president — and told the campaign it had been penetrated by Chinese hackers. The same hacking groups went after Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee.

But this time far more is at stake. The relationship between Beijing and Washington has never been more tense since relations between the two countries opened nearly five decades ago. And Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are in a match to declare which one will be tougher on Beijing over its failures to report quickly about the coronavirus, its new security laws in Hong Kong, its declaration of exclusive territory in the South China Sea, and its efforts to spread its 5G communications networks around the world.

The announcement about Iran’s attempts to get into accounts surrounding the Trump campaign was not new. In October, Microsoft disclosed that Iranian hackers, with apparent backing from that country’s government, made more than 2,700 attempts to identify the email accounts of current and former United States government officials, journalists covering political campaigns, and accounts associated with a presidential campaign. While Microsoft didn’t name the campaign, those involved in the investigation said it was Mr. Trump’s re-election effort. The attacks Google described on Thursday appeared to be along similar lines as to what Microsoft detailed.

Russian hackers are also active this election season. In January, the same Russian hacking group that stole Mr. Podesta’s emails in 2016 began a phishing campaign against Burisma, the Ukrainian company that formerly employed Mr. Biden’s son and was crucial to Mr. Trump’s impeachment.

It is not clear what the Russian hackers were after, but cybersecurity experts surmised at the time that the hackers were looking for “kompromat” — compromising material on the Bidens — or hoping to support Mr. Trump’s claim that Burisma was corrupt and that Ukrainian investigations into the company were warranted.

In February, American intelligence officials warned that Russia was once again actively meddling, though it was unclear whether the goal was simply disruption or support for Mr. Trump. This week he invited President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to join a Group of 7 meeting scheduled for Washington in the fall, angering European allies and Canada given that Russia was thrown out of the group after it annexed Crimea in 2014.

Mr. Biden has been far more critical of Mr. Putin and indicated he would not let up on sanctions against Russia, unlike Mr. Trump.

And last month, the National Security Agency warned that Russian military hackers had seized on vulnerabilities in an email transfer program — used by several congressional candidates, among others — in yet another attempt to steal emails.

Among those who would have been vulnerable to the Russian attacks were the campaign offices of more than 44 American congressmen, including Representative Paul Tonko, Democrat of New York, and three members of the House Armed Services Committee: Jim Banks, Republican of Indiana, Mo Brooks, Republican of Alabama, and Tom Suozzi, Democrat of New York. But there is no evidence their emails were stolen, according to a report by Area 1, a Silicon Valley cybersecurity firm.

David Sanger reported from Washington, and Nicole Perlroth from Palo Alto, Calif.

[The Romulan Republic]

I think I may have just found my one true religion:

https://universalsuffragechurch.org/about

About the Church of Universal Suffrage

The Church of Universal Suffrage is officially registered with the State of Tennessee as a non-profit religious institution. We hold regular, weekly Sunday Service where we meditate on the nature of voter suppression and corruption. We also hold every voting day in the United States to be an official holiday reserved for meditation on the nature of voter supression and in celebration of our inalienable right to vote, endowed to us by our Creator, along with: Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Amen.

DONATIONS

The Church of Universal Suffrage will never ask for or accept any donation. We ask that you donate to a local charity of your choice instead.

However, we do recommend donating to Dreams and Wishes of Tennessee, a non-profit organization that grants wishes for local Tennessee children diagnosed with cancer.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, its official: According to the Biden campaign, Joe has achieved a majority of delegates, and officially become presumptive nominee (some reporting has yet to catch up, for example NBC's delegate counter has him about twenty short).

https://medium.com/@JoeBiden/on-winning ... 51510ae0f8

A little more than three months ago I stood on stage in South Carolina and told the American people that ours was a campaign for everyone who has been knocked down, counted out, and left behind. Those words take on an ever greater resonance today, at a time when so many Americans are hurting and have suffered so much loss. So many feel knocked down by the public health and economic crisis we are weathering. So many feel counted out and left behind by a society that has for too long viewed them as less than equal, their lives as less than precious.

This is a difficult time in America’s history. And Donald Trump’s angry, divisive politics is no answer. The country is crying out for leadership. Leadership that can unite us. Leadership that can bring us together. We need an economy that works for everyone — now. We need jobs that bring dignity — now. We need equal justice — and equal opportunities — for every American now. We need a president who cares about helping us heal — now.

It was an honor to compete alongside one of the most talented groups of candidates the Democratic party has ever fielded — and I am proud to say that we are going into this general election a united party. I am going to spend every day between now and November 3rd fighting to earn the votes of Americans all across this great country so that, together, we can win the battle for the soul of this nation, and make sure that as we rebuild our economy, everyone comes along.

Today, I’m once again asking every American who feels knocked down, counted out, and left behind, to join our campaign. Because we aren’t just building the movement that will defeat Donald Trump, we are building the movement that will transform our nation. I truly believe that when we stand together, finally, as One America, we will rise stronger than before. This is the United States of America. There is nothing we can’t do, if we do it together.

[The Romulan Republic]

More bleak electoral math for the Donald:

https://cnn.com/2020/06/04/politics/ele ... index.html

(CNN)Amid the protests following the police killing of George Floyd and the ongoing fight against the coronavirus pandemic, something very important has been overlooked: President Donald Trump is now a decided underdog to reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term in the fall.

A series of polls in swing (and not-so-swing) states released Wednesday make this reality plain.

* A Fox News poll in Arizona shows Joe Biden leading Trump 46% to 42%
* A Fox News poll in Ohio put Biden at 45% to Trump's 43%
* A Fox News poll in Wisconsin had Biden at 49% and Trump at 40%.
* A Quinnipiac University poll in Texas had the race at Trump 44%, Biden 43%.

How bad are those numbers for Trump? To put a fine point on it: Really bad.

The last Democrat to win Arizona at the presidential level was Bill Clinton in 1996. In Texas, no Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 has carried the state in a presidential race. Ohio was one of the swingiest states in presidential races at the start of this century but moved heavily toward Trump in 2016, as he carried it by 8 points. And Wisconsin is widely seen as the most likely state that Trump flipped in 2016 to again support him. (Polling in Pennsylvania and Michigan -- two other longtime Democratic states Trump won in 2016, suggests he is behind Biden at the moment.)

And according to tabulations made by CNN's David Wright, the Trump campaign has already spent more than $1 million on ads in Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona since the start of the year. Which means that even with Trump's preferred message being beamed to their TV screens, voters in those states aren't persuaded -- at least not yet.

Now, let's look at what these numbers would mean to Trump's chances of getting to 270 in November.

Start here: Trump got 306 electoral votes in his 2016 win. Now, consider these 2020 scenarios (all calculations made via 270towin.com):

* If Trump loses Texas (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden, 270 electoral votes to 268 electoral votes.
* If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 278 to 260.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 279 to 259.
* If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 276 to 262.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 271 to 267.

The point here is not to say any of these electoral map scenarios are locked in. After all, we are still 152 days away from the November 3 election. (And, yes, I counted.)

Rather, they are to note that Biden, as of right now, has a WHOLE lot of different paths to 270 electoral votes, while Trump has a dwindling number. And of course, the polls on released on Wednesday don't even deal with potential trouble spots for Trump in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia -- all of which he won in 2016.

For what it's worth, Trump's best/most likely path to a second term would be to lose either one or both of Michigan and Pennsylvania and hold every other state he won in 2016. If he lost both Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would eke out a 270 to 268 electoral vote victory over Biden. If he lost only Pennsylvania, he would win with 286 electoral votes. Lose just Michigan, and Trump has 290 electoral votes and a second term.

As longtime political handicapper Stu Rothenberg wrote in a post-Memorial Day column:

"The country is as polarized as it was two months ago, and the trajectory of the contest is essentially unchanged, with Biden holding a comfortable lead in national polling and having multiple paths to 270 electoral votes.

"While daily developments give the cable television networks something to chatter about, today's big story will be replaced by a new one tomorrow, and another one the day after that. But the fundamentals of the race remain unchanged."

That is exactly right. As of today, Biden has more ways than at any point in the campaign to date to get to 270 electoral votes. And Trump has fewer.

Could that change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the electoral map looked like Hillary Clinton would roll to a win over Trump. Heck, it looked that way all the way into the fall.

The election isn't today. Trump will run a well-funded -- and likely vicious -- campaign that seeks to paint Biden as out-of-touch on every issue -- from immigration to China to race. And as the last few months have reminded all of us, events can and do intervene to change what we think we know about the November election.

All of that is true. None of it changes the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult electoral map today, with little suggesting a major change is coming anytime soon.

Biden up 9 in Wisconsin alone almost certainly fucks him if true, as Wisconsin is, as noted above, considered the most likely of his 2016 flips for him to hold, and if he doesn't hold at least one of them (or pick up another state elsewhere, which is even more unlikely), he loses.

At least, he loses under any normal scenario. The possibility exists that he will try to suspend elections, and even if only a few states go along, it might muddy the results. Or he might try to deploy troops to suppress/overturn the elections, although its looking less and less likely that the military would go along with that, thank God.

My biggest fear, I think, is that in a close loss, he'll try to bully/persuade/bribe a few Electors into being faithless Electors. Let's say he loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, but the Dems don't quite flip anything else. Trump loses 278 to 260. However, if he persuades just nine electors (possibly using a combination of claims of Democratic voter fraud and the threat of his mob) to switch to him (which they can at least arguably Constitutionally do), then its a tie- at which point it goes to the House. 10 electors, and Trump is President. And that would be at least arguably legal, albeit utterly outrageous, unprecedented, and undemocratic, and the military would be obliged by their oaths to defend it.

In short, its not enough to win a close race (it would also be symbolically bad for the country if Biden just eked out a win, rather than a clear repudiation of Trump and Trumpism by the electorate). We need a landslide. Anything less than a landslide comparable to Obama's win in 2008 would be very problematic, to me, and any scenario where the race comes down to less than ten or twenty electors, or to a single state, is going to have me really nervous.

[Gaid]

Biden up 9 in Wisconsin alone almost certainly fucks him if true, as Wisconsin is, as noted above, considered the most likely of his 2016 flips for him to hold, and if he doesn't hold at least one of them (or pick up another state elsewhere, which is even more unlikely), he loses.

At least, he loses under any normal scenario. The possibility exists that he will try to suspend elections, and even if only a few states go along, it might muddy the results. Or he might try to deploy troops to suppress/overturn the elections, although its looking less and less likely that the military would go along with that, thank God.

My biggest fear, I think, is that in a close loss, he'll try to bully/persuade/bribe a few Electors into being faithless Electors. Let's say he loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, but the Dems don't quite flip anything else. Trump loses 278 to 260. However, if he persuades just nine electors (possibly using a combination of claims of Democratic voter fraud and the threat of his mob) to switch to him (which they can at least arguably Constitutionally do), then its a tie- at which point it goes to the House. 10 electors, and Trump is President. And that would be at least arguably legal, albeit utterly outrageous, unprecedented, and undemocratic, and the military would be obliged by their oaths to defend it.

In short, its not enough to win a close race (it would also be symbolically bad for the country if Biden just eked out a win, rather than a clear repudiation of Trump and Trumpism by the electorate). We need a landslide. Anything less than a landslide comparable to Obama's win in 2008 would be very problematic, to me, and any scenario where the race comes down to less than ten or twenty electors, or to a single state, is going to have me really nervous.

The interesting thing your article lists but you don't really comment on is the fight that Biden is forcing in Republican Territory.

Wisconsin was a Trump flip from a fairly Dem history. Trump still needs it, but it is still a pretty Democratic history. Trump's sell in Wisconsin(and the rest of the Rust corridor) was essentially "You don't know what anybody's gonna give you out of us, so give me a shot" so Wisconsin bought in. But now Trump has his history.

Ohio has a battleground history, so your two point spread actually makes sense here.

What's very interesting is Arizona and Texas. Will we win them? Arizona has a maybe. Texas has a likely not. But you can't really tell what with the changes in some of the major Texas cities population that people have theorized about. The big thing though is Texas they're tied and Biden is leading Arizona so now Trump has to spend money in states that, but for exceptions, have a big tendency to go red.

Talk big fear all you want. But money forced to spread a lead that should already be there in Texas is money not spent in Florida for which Biden already has a lead about equal to Arizona if you look at May's polling history. It's a nice advantage to have.

[Tribble]

Another scenario should Trump lose is that Republican dominated states declare that due to “voting irregularities” it’s impossible to get a “legitimate count” and they just appoint electors who vote for Trump.

[The Romulan Republic]

Another scenario should Trump lose is that Republican dominated states declare that due to “voting irregularities” it’s impossible to get a “legitimate count” and they just appoint electors who vote for Trump.

Maybe. I'm not sure whether that's something states would have the legal authority to do, though my guess would be "no".

I expect Trump to cheat. What's important is that he can't cheat in a way that has "plausible deniability" or a veneer of legal legitimacy to anyone outside his base. Because the military has shown there are limits to how far they'll obey him if the orders are legally questionable, but most of them will likely follow their oaths and side with him if he's constitutionally in the "right"- even if its terribly undemocratic.

[Gaid]

One step at a time guys. Win the votes before you worry about the country being destroyed.

[The Romulan Republic]

One step at a time guys. Win the votes before you worry about the country being destroyed.

I mean, that's kind of my point: we need to win as many votes as possible, because a close race makes it easier for Trump to destroy the country.

The polling right now is useful because it (hopefully) helps combat the sense of fatalism (encouraged by Republican/foreign/Bernie or Bust propaganda) that Trump is certain to win no matter what. But its important not to get complacent and think that Biden has it in the bag either, because then we won't turn out in the numbers we need to ensure a decisive win.

[Gaid]

One step at a time guys. Win the votes before you worry about the country being destroyed.

I mean, that's kind of my point: we need to win as many votes as possible, because a close race makes it easier for Trump to destroy the country.

The polling right now is useful because it (hopefully) helps combat the sense of fatalism (encouraged by Republican/foreign/Bernie or Bust propaganda) that Trump is certain to win no matter what. But its important not to get complacent and think that Biden has it in the bag either, because then we won't turn out in the numbers we need to ensure a decisive win.

But not really. You talk about winning as many votes as possible and skip half the data in the article you post. you have a very panicky mind. So really. Win the election first before you worry about winning the electoral college. Which, I might say, already has a SCOTUS case saying can vote any way it wants.

[The Romulan Republic]

One step at a time guys. Win the votes before you worry about the country being destroyed.

I mean, that's kind of my point: we need to win as many votes as possible, because a close race makes it easier for Trump to destroy the country.

The polling right now is useful because it (hopefully) helps combat the sense of fatalism (encouraged by Republican/foreign/Bernie or Bust propaganda) that Trump is certain to win no matter what. But its important not to get complacent and think that Biden has it in the bag either, because then we won't turn out in the numbers we need to ensure a decisive win.

But not really. You talk about winning as many votes as possible and skip half the data in the article you post. you have a very panicky mind. So really. Win the election first before you worry about winning the electoral college. Which, I might say, already has a SCOTUS case saying can vote any way it wants.

I really don't see where you're disagreeing with anything I've said.

[The Romulan Republic]

Colin Powell has endorsed Biden. I can't imagine it'll help him with progressives, but add Powell to the list of Republicans/former Republicans standing against him.

[The Romulan Republic]

Biden is over 50% in recent polls- something Hillary Clinton never achieved, even when in the lead over Trump:

https://cnn.com/2020/06/07/politics/bid ... index.html

(CNN)Most times when we look at polling we talk about margins. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 7 point margin in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Sunday. What that can miss, however, is that Biden's close to 50% (49%), while Trump isn't anywhere close (42%) in the poll.

Indeed, if you look at the average of live interview polls released since last Sunday, Biden manages to eclipse 50% (51%). That is, he has a majority for now. This is a key milestone that shouldn't be undersold.
View Trump and Biden head-to-head polling
As I've noted in the past, Trump's comeback in 2016 was made considerably easier by the fact that Democrat Hillary Clinton wasn't polling close to 50%. The average live interview poll taken in June 2016 (when Libertarian Gary Johnson was included) had Clinton at a mere 42%. Not a single one of those polls had her even touching 50%. In fact, she never got close in the average of polls during the rest of the campaign.
Analysis: Trump's historically strong with his base -- and that's his problem
Analysis: Trump's historically strong with his base -- and that's his problem
Biden, meanwhile, reached at least 50% in three live interview polls this past week (ABC News/Washington Post, Monmouth University and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College).
When Trump closed the gap in the waning days of the 2016 campaign, he had to convince very few Clinton supporters to vote for him. Trump merely had to pick up support from those who were undecided or backing a third party candidate.
Right now, Trump's road will be difficult if not next to impossible to win if he doesn't take back voters who are already with Biden.
Other historical examples aren't too kind to Trump either. The only other challenger at this point who was at or hovering around 50% was Jimmy Carter in 1976. He won.
Visit CNN's Election Center for full coverage of the 2020 race
One of the presidents who I often point to as a beacon of hope to Trump is Harry Truman. He is the one incumbent president who was trailing outside the margin of error at this point in his bid for a second term who came back to win. Moreover, Truman was the only president with a net negative approval rating (approval - disapproval) below -5 points at this point in the campaign to come back and win.
Here's the problem for Trump: The average poll at this point had Truman's Republican opponent Thomas Dewey at 46%. So even as Biden's advantage over Trump in these polls is less than 2 points greater than Dewey's was over Truman (just south of 9 points), Biden's earning about 5 points more support from voters. Dewey simply didn't have voters committing to him the same way Biden does at this point.
Indeed, Trump's need to convince those who aren't already with the other camp is reflected in another way. His disapproval rating in the average poll is 54%. No other president at this point in the polling era had a disapproval rating this high before their chance to win a second term. Truman's was 47%, as his approval rating languished at 39%. There was, however, a majority of Americans who at least didn't disapprove of him.
Trump proved in 2016 that he can defy history. If he is to win a second term in 2020, Trump's going to have to make some.

Meanwhile, Romney, Bush, and Powell have all said they won't vote for Trump.

[Gandalf]

Colin Powell has endorsed Biden. I can't imagine it'll help him with progressives, but add Powell to the list of Republicans/former Republicans standing against him.

Indeed. At best it's another in a weirdly long list of ex-Bush II guys backing Trump. More cynically, I wonder if Powell is shopping for a legacy after his WMD lies at the UN.

[The Romulan Republic]

Colin Powell has endorsed Biden. I can't imagine it'll help him with progressives, but add Powell to the list of Republicans/former Republicans standing against him.

Indeed. At best it's another in a weirdly long list of ex-Bush II guys backing Trump. More cynically, I wonder if Powell is shopping for a legacy after his WMD lies at the UN.

I think you mean "backing Biden".

But the old guard of the Republican Party never really liked Trump, Trumpism, or how he took over the party, and now he's hated enough, and obviously dangerous enough, that a lot of them feel comfortable turning on him in public. Its less that they are suddenly staunch Democrats (although Powell has been described as a "former Republican" for whatever that's worth) and more that they consider Biden preferable to Trump.

Its not particularly noble, unless they were also voicing this opposition in 2016 and in the intervening years, but it is a sign of how limited Trump's appeal is outside his base (hence why any real hope of "winning" on his part relies on voter supression/cheating).

Of course, winning these people over (and also the moderates and independents who might be swayed by their endorsements) was half the point of picking Biden instead of Sanders (the other half was his strength with the black vote). I'm betting these Republicans/former Republicans would either be siding with Donald, or sitting on the sidelines and staying quiet, were a dirty socialist the nominee.