COVID-19 ongoing thread part 2

[Mr Bean]

As a non American I remember Cain as the candidate who didn't know China already had nuclear weapons, said who cares who the president of Ukbeky beky beky stan is (presumably he meant to say Uzbekistan) and was finally brought down by a sex scandal.

It seems he was anti mask wearing as well. Not a good idea since he is in his 70s and a member of a vulnerable group.

Pretty much. Herman Cain was in the demographic of people running to run. In 2020 I'd group him into the same group that holds Michael Bloomberg and Marianne Williamson. Not serious but running to run for other reasons. Cain was looking to move up in the RNC and buff the resume by all accounts when he was winning for those few weeks he did at least take it serious... shame his ideas were the finest in outsider RNC think-tank position nonsense.

[mr friendly guy]

https://time.com/5862482/china-beijing- ... 9-xinfadi/

China Appears to Have Tamed a Second Wave of Coronavirus in Just 21 Days with No Deaths

BY CHARLIE CAMPBELL / SHANGHAI
JULY 2, 2020 12:41 AM EDT
China appears to have gotten a second wave of COVID-19 under control following an outbreak at a sprawling Beijing produce market last month that led to at least 328 new cases and the partial shutdown of the capital.

On Wednesday, Beijing reported just one new confirmed case — as well as two asymptomatic cases — following an aggressive campaign of testing around the Xinfadi wholesale food market in southwestern Fengtai district, where a new outbreak was detected June 11. While that broke Beijing’s run of 56 days without any new local infections, no new deaths have been recorded as a result.

“Beijing has set a clear example that China will ward off a new wave of infections — domestic or imported — through a prompt and refined epidemic control response,” Zhang Wenhong, director of infectious diseases at Shanghai’s Huashan Hospital, told state broadcaster CCTV.

More than 7 million residents of the city of 22 million were tested for COVID-19 following the resurgence, according to authorities, while schools, bars and beauty parlors were shuttered in a bid to stem the virus’s spread. A forensic approach to contact tracing discovered cases in 47 streets across 11 districts of the city, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, while more than a dozen residential compounds were placed on strict lockdown.

Fearing that this new outbreak is a more contagious strain of the virus than the one that emerged in the central city of Wuhan in December, new rules state than anyone who has had close contact with an infected person must now quarantine for 28 days.

That may seem like an overly cautious requirement given only 5% of infected people have incubation periods longer than 14 days, but it’s characteristic of a nation founded on putting the collective over the individual — not least when outbreaks at the heart of government challenge the ruling Communist Party.

Click the link to read the rest of the article.

[mr friendly guy]

Best healthcare system racket in the world

Its more like $3120 rather than the $2500. Hey at least they are working with generic manufacturers to supply it to developing nations, so that's something.

In fact

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... ad5lJ.html

India’s Hetero prices generic remdesivir for Covid-19 treatment at Rs5,400 per vial

5400 rupees comes out to $72 USD according to an exchange site I use (xe.com)

[madd0ct0r]

I wonder if the Beijing isolation being extended to 28 days is to help tracers keep each imported outbreak seperate?

[MKSheppard]

Aussies are literally being locked inside by the government to contain the new outbreak of Corona. But but China.

www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-australia-53289616

Authorities in the Australian city of Melbourne have confined people living in nine housing estate tower blocks because of an outbreak of coronavirus.

The 3,000 or so residents of the blocks are being told not to leave their homes for any reason for at least five days.

[PainRack]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN24265X



So, sex work is being allowed again in the Netherlands, but you can't kiss.



Which means


Spoiler

[mr friendly guy]

Aussies are literally being locked inside by the government to contain the new outbreak of Corona. But but China.

www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-australia-53289616

Authorities in the Australian city of Melbourne have confined people living in nine housing estate tower blocks because of an outbreak of coronavirus.

The 3,000 or so residents of the blocks are being told not to leave their homes for any reason for at least five days.

Only in Victoria which looks pretty bad while other parts of Australia are opening up. The central and western halves of the country are only getting a few cases every few days (not daily) and that is due to imports, either people returning overseas or from.. Victoria.

The borders between each state can be closed and open depending on the local premier. The decision is made on the state level , unlike say in China where the decision to lock down Hubei province was made on the Federal level. This has caused tensions with the Federal government which thinks we shouldn't shut the borders.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 557q4.html


Pretty much the states bordering Victoria are keeping their borders shut, even if COVID does spread beyond Melbourne to other parts of Victoria.

Since we are not China, media is going to criticise us for being authoritarian praise us for our brave sacrifice.

[ray245]

Sigh, I kinda wish more countries will have the political will to aim for an eradication strategy. Australia can certainly do it if they wish to.

[aerius]

Things you stumble across on the CDC's website
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Excerpt:

In this review, we did not find evidence to support a protective effect of personal protective measures or environmental measures in reducing influenza transmission. Although these measures have mechanistic support based on our knowledge of how influenza is transmitted from person to person, randomized trials of hand hygiene and face masks have not demonstrated protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza, with 1 exception (18). We identified only 2 RCTs on environmental cleaning and no RCTs on cough etiquette.

Hand hygiene is a widely used intervention and has been shown to effectively reduce the transmission of gastrointestinal infections and respiratory infections (26). However, in our systematic review, updating the findings of Wong et al. (8), we did not find evidence of a major effect of hand hygiene on laboratory-confirmed influenza virus transmission (Figure 1). Nevertheless, hand hygiene might be included in influenza pandemic plans as part of general hygiene and infection prevention.

We did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility (Figure 2). However, as with hand hygiene, face masks might be able to reduce the transmission of other infections and therefore have value in an influenza pandemic when healthcare resources are stretched.

Given that covid-19 and influenza are both respiratory viruses which are mainly spread via droplets, we got a problem here. If masks don't work for the flu they're unlikely to work with covid, in which case we're basically looking at public health theatre when mandating mask wearing for covid-19.

[ray245]

Things you stumble across on the CDC's website
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Excerpt:

Given that covid-19 and influenza are both respiratory viruses which are mainly spread via droplets, we got a problem here. If masks don't work for the flu they're unlikely to work with covid, in which case we're basically looking at public health theatre when mandating mask wearing for covid-19.

We have other studies in Germany that shows that while mask are not completely effective, they do show an impact in reducing the spread of the virus. So mask is having some effect, we just don't know exactly why.

We still do not know why Japan and Hong Kong is so unaffected by the virus.

[Solauren]

Japan is largely unaffected by the virus because

#1 - Their initial known exposure was via infected cruise ships. Including those infections in their stats is, quite frankly, incorrect
#2 - The few Japanese people that contracted the disease initially self-isolated, as did most of the people they went into contact with.
#3 - A large number of Japanese people already wear a mask when they go outside for any reason.
(Most Japanese cities are very high density, so diseases spread easy)



No idea about Hong Kong. Maybe the ongoing 'government enforcement efforts' have it contained?

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2471AL

Spanish antibody study shows 5% of population exposed to coronavirus
3 MIN READ

MADRID (Reuters) - Results from the final stage of a nationwide antibody study show some 5.2% of Spain’s population has been exposed to the new coronavirus, health officials said on Monday, confirming findings from earlier stages.

The study, which tested nearly 70,000 people across Spain three times over the past three months, found the virus’ prevalence had not altered significantly since preliminary results were published in May.

It also suggested that immunity to the virus can be short-lived, with 14% of participants who tested positive for antibodies in the first stage subsequently testing negative in the last stage.

“Immunity can be incomplete, it can be transitory, it can last for just a short time and then disappear,” said Dr Raquel Yotti, director of Spain’s Carlos III Health Institute, which co-led the study.

The loss of immunity was most common among people who never developed symptoms.

1. I am going to assume competence on the reporter and they know the difference between IgM antibodies which do fade, and IgG antibodies which are the ones that replace IgM. So presumably 14% of participants didn't have the IgG antibody on the most recent test.

2. This again raises questions on vaccine development if antibodies don't last long, do we need constant boosters? I will point out however, it is possible to boost the immunogenic effect of vaccines by adding what we call adjuvants to the vaccine so the immune system has a stronger response.

[mr friendly guy]

Meanwhile in Australia the border wars continue. I am been a bit behind on this information, but the summary.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/ ... s/12428894

Basically states decided it was a good idea to close the borders with each other due to the pandemic. Apparently fat piece of shit and racist cunt Clive Palmer thought that was a bad idea and is challenging that in the courts. The Federal government is supporting this challenge, although as far as I can tell, its just moral support and not putting any of the government's resources into the challenge.

https://www.watoday.com.au/national/wes ... 558h2.html

Premier Mark McGowan will come under pressure to lift Western Australia’s border restrictions to all states but Victoria as other states move to do so.

Earlier this week Mr McGowan shelved plans to reopen WA's interstate borders on August 8 in light of the eruption in coronavirus cases in Victoria, saying he felt “vindicated” over his strict border stance.

Yet South Australia and Queensland announced plans to lift their own border controls to every state except Victoria.

Mr McGowan's argument in June that "picking and choosing between the states" was unconstitutional had effectively been eroded by his interstate counterparts not taking an all-or-nothing approach, according to law expert Lorraine Finlay.

Ms Finlay, a Murdoch Law School lecturer in constitutional law, said an argument could be made to the High Court that it wasn't simply an issue that fell under section 117 of the constitution, which “basically says you can’t discriminate against residents of different states”.

WA's border has been closed since April 5, with no plans to reopen any time soon.
WA's border has been closed since April 5, with no plans to reopen any time soon. CREDIT:WA GOVERNMENT

“Under section 92 there can be legitimate reasons for restricting movement where a public health emergency stems from one state and no others,” she said.

“The devil really is in the detail and how those restrictions work in practice because the court will consider the reasonableness of the measures imposed, what the government is relying on for advice at the time and the time imposed, and other practical factors.”

She said while “no one can say with absolute certainty where the balance falls” between the two sections of the constitution as they had never been tested together, the longer WA’s border closures remained, the harder it would be for the Premier to argue they were constitutional.

“It makes it harder for Western Australia to maintain that the restrictions are reasonable when other states are opening up their borders and WA is an outlier,” she said.

“If WA is the only state to keep their borders closed it could be considered outside the line of reasonableness.”

In regards to Clive Palmer's challenge to WA's border closures, the matter was only being considered as a test to the initial border lockdown, which fell solely under section 92 with other elements brought into it.

“Section 92 has been interpreted by the court to allow some restrictions of movement for legitimate public purposes, and closing the borders in a public emergency brought on by a pandemic would be one of those cases," Ms Finlay said.

Mr McGowan’s strong border stance relies heavily on the health advice of the state’s chief health officer, Andrew Robertson, who has already ruled out reopening borders until Victoria's numbers significantly improved.

"If either they've got no community spread or we're fairly confident that what little community spread [exists] is well under control and being effectively managed, that would be the time we would provide that advice [to reopen]," Dr Robertson told ABC Radio on Monday.

Victoria reported 77 new cases yesterday, of which 332 infections statewide could not be traced to a known source.

“At this point in time, strong points for why it is constitutional is that: WA is relying on medical advice that says it isn’t safe to open the borders; this outbreak of community transmission in Victoria; and a phased opening up of the WA economy has been timed out, where there is a clear intention to remove border restrictions when it is safe to do so," Ms Finlay said.

“So when you combine those three factors, it is likely that the High Court would still hold the closures constitutional at this stage.”

WA’s stance has also meant it has stayed outside the border wars raging in the east, particularly between Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

RELATED ARTICLE
Residents in 10 Melbourne postcodes are back in lockdown.
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Morrison pushes for end to virus border wars
Add to shortlist
A national cabinet meeting on Friday will be a call for peace between the states after Queensland raised concerns about NSW only restricting visitors from Melbourne's coronavirus hot spots, which heightened their vulnerability should infections still manage to jump the borders.

The Northern Territory, which has taken the same targeted approach as NSW, recorded its first coronavirus case in almost three months when a Darwin man tested positive after recently returning from Melbourne.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has consistently stressed the need for open borders and warned against overreaction to local outbreaks.

"There will be hot spots and you can't just shut Australia up every time there's an outbreak," he said on Tuesday.

"We need to ensure our economy builds back with confidence and with resilience."

Now generally I am of the opinion that WA most probably can reopen to SA and NT, as long as those also keep borders close with Victoria. However Mark McGowan has done a good job with WA and is likely privy to information I am not, so I willing to give him some leeway on this.

[madd0ct0r]

One of my martial arts class just died. He was old and frail and fuck this disease.

[mr friendly guy]

Hey guys, Trump might not have been able to build that wall, but Mexico is closing part of its border to the US due to coronavirus fears.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... th-country

See, Trump is slowing carrying out his promises.

But hey I don't blame Mexico. America is not sending their best to Mexico. They are sending their Trumpists, their ignorant, their selfish, their diseased and some I suppose, are good people.

[Nicholas]

Sigh, I kinda wish more countries will have the political will to aim for an eradication strategy. Australia can certainly do it if they wish to.

I wish we would talk about an eradication strategy. For most western democracies I suspect an eradication strategy would require new laws. Having a public debate about what those laws would need to say and whether or not they should be passed would I think be very helpful. These kinds of important debates where lives are on the line and important and conflicting values need to be balanced are what legislatures are supposed to do, I wish they would do it.

Nicholas

[Solauren]

It would not surprise me in the least to see, post this (or in the fall depending on how this continues) most governments pass 'Pandemic acts' so that if a pandemic is declared, numerous things go into effect immediately.

i.e
Mandatory wearing of masks in public
Mandatory isolation for anyone coming into the country from abroad
Certain businesses and activities being automatically closed. (i.e Sports events, social groups, etc)

[PainRack]

https://twitter.com/jimchines/status/12 ... 97602?s=09

why Dnd players take coronavirus seriously

We learned two things from experience.

1. A 2% chance of death is not as low as it sounds.

2. No matter how high your Consitution score , there's always a chance you fail your saving throw.

[bilateralrope]

Sigh, I kinda wish more countries will have the political will to aim for an eradication strategy. Australia can certainly do it if they wish to.

That's the disappointing part. Back when we eliminated Covid19 here in NZ, I was expecting that other countries would follow shortly after us. Several countries were on course for it, but they all reopened too soon.

[ray245]

That's the disappointing part. Back when we eliminated Covid19 here in NZ, I was expecting that other countries would follow shortly after us. Several countries were on course for it, but they all reopened too soon.

When the numbers got more or less under control, all it takes is a few more weeks or maybe months of persistence and you can eradicate it like in NZ. You can reopen more of your economy if you eradicate outright.

Maybe it's harder for some of the more continental countries, but you can do it in the British Isle.

[mr friendly guy]

That's the disappointing part. Back when we eliminated Covid19 here in NZ, I was expecting that other countries would follow shortly after us. Several countries were on course for it, but they all reopened too soon.

When the numbers got more or less under control, all it takes is a few more weeks or maybe months of persistence and you can eradicate it like in NZ. You can reopen more of your economy if you eradicate outright.

Maybe it's harder for some of the more continental countries, but you can do it in the British Isle.

There is also the issue of logistics for returning citizens, which will apply to both continental and island countries. Some of the so called second wave is due to returnees rather than lifting a lockdown too early.

For example the outbreak in the Australian state of Victoria, appears to be due to stuff ups by private contractors working in those quarantine hotels.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/ ... e/12420970

[aerius]

My region has passed a bylaw mandating non-medical facial coverings for anyone entering a store or other building that's open to the public. Meanwhile, our parks and beaches look just like the ones in Florida during spring break. People are gathering by the thousands on our lakefront beaches and crammed nuts to butts in large groups with no protection of any sort, and I can wear a fishnet face mask and be in compliance with the new bylaw. This is pretty much public health theatre, which is about as effective as airport security theatre.

[The Romulan Republic]

Karma strikes back: President Bolsonaro of Brazil tests positive:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7147713/jair ... ronavirus/

This comes just shortly after the news that Donald Jr is in quarantine after his girlfriend tested positive.

[The Romulan Republic]

Canada's Parlimentary Budget Officer just concluded that offering a guaranteed basic income to most Canadians (excluding those above a certain income level) could actually cost less than the money spent on the Canada Emergency Response Benefit:

https://huffingtonpost.ca/entry/basic-i ... 80bbffac9a

OTTAWA — The federal budget watchdog estimates a six-month guaranteed basic income for all eligible Canadians could cost the government less than what has already been spent on Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) payments over a four-month period.

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux released a new report Tuesday in the wake of emergency money that’s been rolled out to soften the “brutal” economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The introduction of CERB has brought discussions of universal basic income to the forefront once again,” the PBO wrote in its report.

A basic income for the last six months of the 2020-21 fiscal year would cost at least $47.5 billion and upwards of $98 billion, the report read. In this scenario, the funding would provide a guaranteed annual income of $18,329 and $25,921 to individuals and couples, respectively.

Approximately 9.6 million Canadians between the age of 18 and 64 would be eligible for payments at the lowest income threshold the PBO examined. The money is intended to help cover the basic necessities of life such as food, clothing and shelter.

Advocates have long argued that implementing a guaranteed basic income could replace an existing patchwork of social assistance programs and tax measures for low-income or disabled individuals, while saving administration costs.

The PBO found approximately $15 billion could be saved this way. The savings could theoretically be used to offset the cost of implementing a guaranteed basic income.

Comparatively, the federal government has so far paid $53.5 billion in direct CERB payments since mid-March to Canadians whose employment has been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Breaking down the math
Giroux’s office used the parameters of Ontario’s scrapped basic income project to guide its calculations. The PBO included a supplemental $1.7 billion for guaranteed income for disabled Canadians into all of its projected scenarios.

The PBO looked at how much a federal program could cost at a 50 per cent, 25 per cent, and 15 per cent reduction rate.

A reduction rate is the percentage of the benefit that is reduced in relation to earned income. So, for every dollar in wages, a recipient’s benefit is reduced by between 50 and 15 cents, depending on the model. The reduction is built into many basic income proposals as a way to incentivize people to work and earn higher incomes.

The lower the reduction rate, the more people who would be eligible for larger benefits — which in turn increases overall program costs.

At the low end of its range, the PBO estimates the cost of a guaranteed basic income could be $47.5 billion at a 50 per cent reduction rate. This means a person would have to earn $36,660 to no longer be eligible for basic income payments.

Lowering the reduction rate further widens the net for eligible Canadians.

In the highest cost model, more than 20 million Canadians would be eligible for basic income at a 15 per cent reduction rate, increasing program costs to $98 billion per year.

A person would have to earn more than $122,000 before benefits are eliminated at this rate.

CERB and basic income not the same
The government’s economic responses to the coronavirus pandemic has fuelled discussion and debate around the CERB and the idea of a guaranteed basic income.

They’re two different programs with different intentions that have been conflated because of the attention on the sticker price.

A senior government official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, told HuffPost that the CERB was designed to be temporary, intended to fade away when there is no longer an emergency.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly said his government’s focus has been getting financial aid quickly to Canadians who need immediate help.

Approximately 5.5 million Canadians have either lost their jobs or had their hours cut since widespread physical distancing measures upended the economy in March.

Despite criticism of the CERB eligibility criteria letting some Canadians fall through the cracks, Trudeau has maintained that making the emergency payment universal during a pandemic is easier said than done.

The popular program has been extended to the end of August due to low uptake of the government’s Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy program to help employers rehire workers. The cost of the CERB program is expected to grow to more than $71.3 billion by the end of the extension.

“The impending expiry of current COVID support programs is an opportunity to test basic income while helping Canadians weather the uncertainty of a post-COVID world,” read a statement from Sen. Yuen Pau Woo, who requested the PBO study.

Disability advocate calls federal aid ‘absolutely dismal’
Guaranteed basic income has been touted by advocates as a long-term policy solution to shrink the administrative costs of maintaining 55 federal and provincial programs designed to help low-income earners and other vulnerable groups.

The argument is the money can be saved by cutting red tape, and reallocating funds as direct basic income payments to lift people from poverty.

Chelsea Mayne, who is currently on the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP), wishes the government opted for a federal basic income.

She told HuffPost Canada’s politics podcast “Follow-Up” that though the government’s intentions were good with CERB, the response to people on disability has been “absolutely dismal.”

People on ODSP receive less than $1,200 monthly, which is less than the $2,000 benchmark the government set as its minimum CERB payment.

Mayne said the double standard has been a slap in the face for those on disability who’ve found themselves ineligible for the CERB, dealing with increased COVID-19-related costs.

“There is systemic ableism in this country and it is considered OK to just ignore disabled lives,” she said.

NDP House Leader Peter Julian told reporters in Ottawa that his party has been pushing for a more universal approach to financial support for Canadians since the onset of the pandemic in March.

“It makes more sense to make sure that everybody who needs the benefit can actually get it,” he said Tuesday.

With the cost of coronavirus-related government packages climbing, the prime minister promised Canadians last month to give a summary of how the economy is doing and how the country’s response fares to that of other countries.

In lieu of its postponed budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau is expected to deliver the government’s “economic and fiscal snapshot” Wednesday.

Granted, CERB isn't meant to be permanent. But this is another reminder that Basic Income is within our society's means- we simply don't implement it because poor people are deemed undeserving of basic security and dignity. It should also be possible, from this data, to extrapolate what it would cost to make it truly universal, and give every person in Canada a basic income.

[aerius]

Granted, CERB isn't meant to be permanent. But this is another reminder that Basic Income is within our society's means- we simply don't implement it because poor people are deemed undeserving of basic security and dignity. It should also be possible, from this data, to extrapolate what it would cost to make it truly universal, and give every person in Canada a basic income.

Have you looked at Canada's federal budget and figured out a way to fund an additional $47-$98 billion in spending without completely exploding the budget? Keep in mind that total federal government revenue is $338 billion and we were already running an $18 billion deficit before covid-19.