Brexit and not very united kingdom politics II

[The Romulan Republic]

Its a symptom, mostly of rabid racism and xenphobia, and a cause, of a great deal of chaos and instability.

And also of under-investment in many areas of the UK.

So, capitalism, with race/foreigners used as the scapegoat.

[Zaune]

So, capitalism, with race/foreigners used as the scapegoat.

Capitalism with Thatcherite characteristics specifically, because whatever was wrong with society in this country was at least evenly distributed regionally prior to the 80s, but pretty much.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

They were never going to make the end of the year even without the outbreak, with it's completely impossible. With the world shut down, really they have no alternative but to extend the transition period. If they're smart about it they'll just quietly extend while everyone's attention is elsewhere.

As if they've been smart about anything else Brexit related so far.....

Which is the exact reason why they won't do that.
Failing to extend Brexit transition period would be 'extraordinarily reckless', First ministers warn Boris Johnson.

The first ministers of Scotland and Wales have called for an extension to the Brexit transition period, warning it would be "extraordinarily reckless" to not do so.

In a letter to the Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford said "fundamental issues" still remain between the UK and EU negotiators after the most recent round of talks on a deal.

The Scottish Government has repeatedly called for the transition period to be extended beyond the December 31 deadline, but that can only be done if a request is made before the end of this month.

The UK Government has previously rejected any calls for an extension.

Ms Sturgeon and Mr Drakeford warned in their letter that exiting the transition period at the end of this year, when the UK economy will just be beginning its recovery from coronavirus, would be "extraordinarily reckless".

The first ministers wrote: "No-one could reproach the UK Government for changing its position in the light of the wholly unforeseeable Covid-19 crisis, particularly as the EU has made it clear it is open to an extension request.

"We therefore call on you to take the final opportunity the next few weeks provide to ask for an extension to the transition period in order to provide a breathing space to complete the negotiations, to implement the outcome, and the opportunity for our businesses to find their feet after the enormous disruption of recent months.

"At the time the Withdrawal Agreement was signed, no-one could have imagined the enormous economic dislocation which the Covid 19 pandemic has caused - in Wales, Scotland, the whole of the UK, in the EU and across the world."

The letter claimed that, at best, there would only be a "bare bones" trade deal in place by December, or a move to a no-deal exit from the EU.

But in a tweet on Friday, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said he has "formally confirmed" to the EU the UK will not extend the Brexit transition period.

The statement was made during a meeting of the EU Joint Committee.

Mr Gove said: "I formally confirmed the UK will not extend the transition period & the moment for extension has now passed."

"On 1 January 2021 we will take back control and regain our political & economic independence," he added.

[LaCroix]

The red herring of the trade deal is still in effect.

The deal was supposed to be finalized before the transition period.
The transition period was supposed to be a 20 month period to implement the necessary protocols, infrastructure and to train people.

They already have declared that they intend to just wave any imports through because they know that they it will take years before their border is up and running (software is supposed to be ready in... 2025...), and to this day nobody even knows what these rules will be like, yet. Not doing that would mean day-long queues which means perishables will spoil. (And freighters will soon refuse to go there, anyway, because who wants to have the lorries held up for days at the border...)

The problem is, the moment they do that - first they lose any bargaining chip with the EU, and second the US and China will ask why they are giving non-WTO-legal preferential treatment to the EU and demand the same right to not be controlled. So either the UK gets hit with the WTO hammer (with no EU to back them), or they appease, which means they have nothing left to bargain with them, either. Or closes the border to the UK, which means mass starvation...

Also, it only applies to imports - export will still be checked by the EU for sure, with all the problems it will bring to harbour infrastructure.
And, they will still be needing to do full checks between Britain and Northern Ireland (which they pretty much can't) in order to not violate the Good Friday AND the Brexit international treaties.

[His Divine Shadow]

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/uk-a ... ?r=US&IR=T

The UK has abandoned hopes of signing a Brexit trade deal with Trump this year
THOMAS COLSON
JUL 22, 2020, 11:25 PM

Boris Johnson’s government has reportedly abandoned hopes of striking a post-Brexit trade deal with the US this year.
UK officials no longer think a trade deal will be struck before November’s US presidential election, according to the Financial Times.
Officials told the paper that Brexit delays and subsequently the Covid-19 pandemic had pushed back the timetable pushed trade negotiations down the agenda in London.
A post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and US would be seen as a big political win for Boris Johnson as he tries to push a “Global Britain” agenda after Brexit.
Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
The British government has abandoned hopes of signing a Brexit trade deal with the US by the end of the year, according to a report.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson had hoped to strike a speedy trade deal by the end of 2020, which he sees as domestically important. But UK officials no longer think one will be agreed before November’s US presidential election, according to the Financial Times. Officials told the paper that Brexit delays and subsequently the Covid-19 pandemic had pushed back the timetable pushed trade negotiations down the agenda in London.

“Is it going to happen this year? Basically, no,” an official told the paper. “We don’t want to be bounced into a deal.”

A trade deal with the US would add just 0.2% of UK GDP according to leaked UK government estimates – but would be a big political win for Boris Johnson as he pushes to forge a vision of “Global Britain” outside the EU.

Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, visited London on Tuesday, where he said he had discussed the prospect of a trade deal with Johnson. “A third round [of negotiations] scheduled for later this month, a primary focus for the United States is to see that we can make progress on this and bring this to a closure just as quickly as possible,” he said.

It comes after Trump promised at the G7 Summit last year a “phenomenal” trade deal with the UK and said trade would between the two countries would expand to “two or three times what we are doing right now.”

But there remain significant sticking points in negotiations, notably over issues including agricultural tariffs and a digital sales tax.

The White House insists that Britain should allow imports of its agricultural products, such as chlorine-washed chicken, but Downing Street has so far refused to make significant concessions, given widespread domestic opposition to any such plan.

Johnson has vowed to “drive a hard bargain” in talks and “rigorously protect” the UK’s public services, and refuse to drop regulatory standards in order to facilitate a deal.

Let me summarise what Brexit means for UK trade by showing a list of the UK's trading partners by value of trade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ed_Kingdom

The UK is jeopardising trade with the EU of the value of around 614.98 billion pounds and is trying to compensate by securing a trade deal with a country (US) which its trade is only worth 182.5 billion pounds, and in return the US wants the UK to take sides with their trade war with China (as we can see from the UK's hypocritical rhetoric) and jeopardising a further 67.5 billion pounds worth of trade with China. Sounds like a good deal. For the US that is.

[LaCroix]

You forgetting one small detail -all the free trade with Non-EU states is via EU treaties... Brexit means they go back to WTO terms, worldwide.
They are jeeting all their trade off the cliff (apart from Switzerland and a few smaller countries), and then want to become a trade vassal state to the US (as the US trade deal demands for them to prefer US goods even over UK ones whenever possible, with no reciprocal trade promise)

[ray245]

You forgetting one small detail -all the free trade with Non-EU states is via EU treaties... Brexit means they go back to WTO terms, worldwide.
They are jeeting all their trade off the cliff (apart from Switzerland and a few smaller countries), and then want to become a trade vassal state to the US (as the US trade deal demands for them to prefer US goods even over UK ones whenever possible, with no reciprocal trade promise)

Brexit is mostly about those Tories wanting to align the UK with the US from a "mere" special relationship to what is effectively a 51st state.

[LaCroix]

Brexit is mostly about those Tories wanting to align the UK with the US from a "mere" special relationship to what is effectively a 51st state.

Yeah, but it is going top be something even less of a 51st state than Puerto Rico, and ask them how their financial situation with their overlord looks like ...

[EnterpriseSovereign]

UK and EU at loggerheads as Boris Johnson 'plans to rip-up parts of Brexit Withdrawal Agreement'

Brexit negotiations with the European Union are in yet another stalemate, with Boris Johnson reportedly planning to rip-up key parts of the Withdrawal Agreement and the EU saying any future relationship depends on the UK sticking to it.

The prime minister is planning new legislation that would override state aid and Northern Ireland customs aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement – the treaty that sealed Britain’s exit from the EU in January – in a move that could risk collapsing the trade talks.

Ministers have claimed the UK is "committed" to implementing the Withdrawal Agreement, but the new legislation is being planned to "give legal clarity" if there "remains a few issues at the end of [talks]".

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission said the Withdrawal Agreement is a "prerequisite for any future partnership" and suggested there will be no trade deal if the UK does not stick to its side of it.

In response to reports that some aspects of the agreement could be ignored, Ms von der Leyen tweeted: "I trust the British government to implement the Withdrawal Agreement, an obligation under international law & prerequisite for any future partnership.

"Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland is essential to protect peace and stability on the island & integrity of the single market."

It is being reported by the Financial Times that the new legislation - named the Internal Market Bill, due to be published on Wednesday - will “eliminate” the legal force of the Withdrawal Agreement in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs.

The Northern Ireland protocol aims to avoid the introduction of a hard border on the island of Ireland in the event that there is a no-deal Brexit.

As part of its terms, the region is expected to continue to follow some EU rules after the transition period ends in 2021 to ensure there is no hard border – a resolution some Brexiteers were angry about when initially revealed.

A Number 10 spokesman said the Joint Committee - a group of EU and UK negotiators debating the remaining areas of contention in the Withdrawal - will continue to work at resolving outstanding issues with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

"However," the spokesman said, "as a responsible Government, we cannot allow the peace process or the UK’s internal market to inadvertently be compromised by unintended consequences of the protocol".

The spokesman added: "We are taking limited and reasonable steps to clarify specific elements of the Northern Ireland Protocol in domestic law to remove any ambiguity and to ensure the government is always able to deliver on its commitments to the people of Northern Ireland.

"These limited clarifications deliver on the commitments the Government made in the General Election manifesto, which said: 'We will ensure that Northern Ireland’s businesses and producers enjoy unfettered access to the rest of the UK and that in the implementation of our Brexit deal, we maintain and strengthen the integrity and smooth operation of our internal market'.”

The Government says it is legislating to allow UK ministers to decide which goods from GB to NI are “at risk” of entering the EU if the Joint Committee has not reached agreement on them by January.

Earlier, a spokesman said: “As a responsible government, we are considering fall back options in the event this is not achieved to ensure the communities of Northern Ireland are protected.”

Negotiations by the Joint Committee take place between Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, and EU Commission Vice President, Maroš Šefčovič.

Negotiations on a trade deal take place between UK chief negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier.

Environment Secretary George Eustice said the government remains "committed" to the Withdrawal Agreement and other arrangements contained within it, but added how both sides recognised, when it was signed, that the deal had a "few loose ends".


"If there remains a few issues at the end of [talks] obviously we need to legislate to provide people with the legal certainty and clarity they need," he said.

The minister, while admitting that talks had been difficult, said a deal was still "possible" but insisted "in the absence of an agreement we will leave without fail".

The suggestion that ministers could possibly undermine an international treaty and use Northern Ireland as a bargaining chip has caused uproar among key figures in Ireland and mainland Europe.

Ireland foreign minister Simon Coveney, an influential player in the formation of the Withdrawal Agreement, tweeted: “This would be a very unwise way to proceed.”

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth criticised Boris Johnson for “shenanigans” that are posing serious risks for the economy.

“Boris Johnson promised us, he told us he had an oven-ready deal,” he said.

“That’s why we had a general election last year and indeed he won that general election, he was given a great majority to deliver his oven-ready deal.

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth slams Boris Johnson 'shenanigans'

Play Video
“Parliament endorsed the Withdrawal Agreement and endorsed the Northern Ireland arrangements that he proposed.

“The consequence of these shenanigans is that he’s pushing the country to a no-deal scenario.”

He said that the priority during a recession should be to “protect jobs and livelihoods”, especially in a time when “there are great fears for unemployment”.

“I think this is very, very dangerous for the economy and puts jobs and livelihoods at risk,” he added.

Shadow Northern Ireland secretary Louise Haigh said: “It beggars belief that the Government is – yet again – playing a dangerous game in Northern Ireland and sacrificing our international standing at the altar of the Prime Minister’s incompetence.”

“He is now saying, apparently, that he wants to unpick that, having signed a treaty, having signed a commitment with Europe on that - but also having told the British people in a general election he had an oven-ready deal.

Mr Johnson also plans to give Brussels a five-week deadline to agree fresh trade terms or otherwise call for both sides to “accept” no-deal and spend the rest of the year minimising the extent of the disruption from the fallout.

He is expected to say on Monday that collapsing the trade talks, should there be no agreement by the October 15 European Council, would still be a “good outcome for the UK”, allowing the country to “prosper mightily”.

Political Correspondent Paul Brand believes the PM has set a hard deadline of October 15 and there is not point of negotiating beyond that


He will make clear that the UK will not budge, telling his counterparts in Brussels the Government “cannot and will not compromise on the fundamentals of what it means to be an independent country”, and will look to turn attention to preparing for no-deal.

The Prime Minister is expected to say: “We are now entering the final phase of our negotiations with the EU.

“The EU have been very clear about the timetable. I am too. There needs to be an agreement with our European friends by the time of the European Council on October 15 if it’s going to be in force by the end of the year.

“If we can’t agree by then, then I do not see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on.”

Just when you thought Boris couldn't fuck it up any more.

[mr friendly guy]

Apparently this Bill which allows the UK to ignore parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement it doesn't like might break international law.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-10/ ... n=business

[Lost Soal]

Well yes but only in "a very specific and limited way." So it's all right then.
Just as shooting someone with a longbow breaks in the law in "a very specific and limited way."

[Crazedwraith]

one fun part of covid is that we're not hearing so much about this while they quietly fuck it all up.

Brexit: UK must 'get ready' for no EU trade deal, says PM

The UK has to "get ready" for no trade deal with the EU, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.

Unless there was a "fundamental" change of direction from the EU, he said the two sides would not be able to agree a post-Brexit economic partnership,

The UK set a deadline of Thursday to decide whether it was worth continuing talks amid continuing disagreements.

Both sides have indicated they want to carry on but the EU has said it is up to the UK to make the next move.

The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said a no-deal outcome seemed to be moving closer after Thursday's meeting of EU leaders - which the UK was not present at - failed to "move the dial".

But she said there was still a "long way to go", with the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier due in London next week for further discussions.

And the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said EU negotiators would seek to "intensify" the talks in the coming days. She tweeted: "The EU continues to work for a deal but not at any price."

Speaking in Downing Street, Mr Johnson declined to be drawn on whether the UK was now willing to walk away from the process amid differences over fisheries and competition issues.

'Simple principles'
But he suggested the EU was unwilling to seriously consider the UK's preferred option of a comprehensive free trade agreement based on the bloc's existing arrangement with Canada.

The UK, he added, must look at the "alternative" - which he suggested was Australia's much-more limited set of agreements with the EU.
The PM said: "Given that they (the EU) have refused to negotiate seriously for much of the last few months, I have concluded we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements more like Australia's based on simple principles of global free trade.

"So now is the time for our businesses to get ready, and for hauliers to get ready, and for travellers to get ready.

"For whatever reason it is clear from the summit that after 45 years of membership they are not willing - unless there is some fundamental change of approach - to offer this country the same terms as Canada.

"And so with high hearts and complete confidence we will prepare to embrace the alternative."

'Not sufficient'
Both sides are calling on each other to compromise on key issues, including fishing and limits on government subsidies to businesses.

They are seeking an agreement to govern their trading relationship once the UK's post-Brexit transition period ends in December.

Following the talks on Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said "in some places there was movement, in other places there is still a lot of work to do."

In a conclusions document issued during the summit, the EU said progress in key areas was currently "not sufficient" to reach a deal and asked Mr Barnier to "continue negotiations in the coming weeks".

Boris Johnson's deadline
Over the summer, both the UK and EU seemed to agree the end of October was the final date to get a deal done - allowing enough time for it to be ratified before 31 December.

But on 7 September, Boris Johnson decided to shorten the deadline.

He said if a deal wasn't reached by 15 October, "then I do not see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on".

Thursday was that day - but Downing Street appears to have moved back from it as a hard deadline.

What if there's no deal?
By remaining in the bloc's single market and customs union, the UK has continued to follow EU trading rules during its post-Brexit transition period.

This 11-month period is due to end in December, and the UK has ruled out seeking an extension.

Formal talks began in March and continued throughout the pandemic, initially via video link before in-person discussions resumed over the summer.

If a deal is not done, the UK will trade with the EU according to the default rules set by the World Trade Organization.

Certain amount of brinkmanship here 'm sure and a not unexpected development but still pretty shitty prospect.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The Brexit Bunch Bullshitters really have no fucking clue how piss-weak the UK negotiating position actually is.

[Crazedwraith]

Looks like now it's too late we will have another lockdown...

[madd0ct0r]

Well, you will. In Wales we're halfway through our shorter and earlier one. I'd rub it in more but that would contravene social distancing.

Tbh the results in Wales of our regional lockdowns are poor. Either we're not hitting the vectors accurately, we are but the autumn winter weather and behaviour shift means different p2p connections, or Too many people have made their own personal concessions 'i follow the rules normally but...'.


Paper barons have abandoned Boris. They're still dragging the labourvus antiSemitic story , which frankly Corbyn is not helping but it's unclear whether they are holding powder dry for trashing stamer later or if they grow restive with Boris trashing their investments.


In meantime I'd be surprised if any thing happens beyond lurching from idiocy to idiocy and an assumption they can restate things near the election and rely on short memory

[Eternal_Freedom]

The sad thing is that this Welsh firebreak thing has only actually changed two things about my routine - I can't go and have a nice breakfast on Sundays before I do my shopping, and the buses on Sundays are now an hour apart. That's it.

I still get the bus to work. I still go to Greggs for my lunch. I still go to Tesco on the way home. Nothing else has changed for me. Which is both good and sad.

[John Done]

Brexit didn't influence the British industry - even the pandemic didn't affect it. The space industry is growing in the UK. There are companies responsible for satellite building and rockets creation that can in the future send cargo to ISS or maybe send people to Mars. Skylark-L rocket , for example, used for microgravity experiments at a lower cost than an orbital vehicle while taking advantage of Skyrora’s environmentally conscious fuel combination.

[madd0ct0r]

I follow the UK space industry with interest, and we have that launch for polar orbits, but it's a rounding error in a country that doesn't make much stuff.

Every large construction company I know has been shedding people and cutting wages. We expect the industry to be hit hard when people delay investment and repair work to keep cash on hand.

[madd0ct0r]

Fuckity bye Cummings.

I should hate him really, but I've got a perverse admiration for someone so willing to burn it all down and throw excel at problems.

Current speculation is either boris's latest squeeze dosent like him or with biden's support for Ireland the UK is scrabbling for a much softer brexit after all. The first is basically a dick joke about Boris 9kids Johnson, and the second is part of the same 'please let's get back to normal' sensation Biden inspires in the US mainstream. Neither feel credible to me.

So it's worth looking at why Cummings drove brexit through Give, then Leave campaign, then Boris. He's clearly not a little Englander and clearly not a banker bro grifter like Toady Farage. Let's turn to our best source, Cummings own blog, and our best model of him, Starglider.

https://dominiccummings.com/tag/ai/

A theme of this blog since before the referendum campaign has been that thinking about organisational structure/dynamics can bring what Warren Buffett calls ‘lollapalooza’ results. What seems to be very esoteric and disconnected from ‘practical politics’ (studying things like the management of the Manhattan Project and Apollo) turns out to be extraordinarily practical (gives you models for creating super-productive processes).

Part of the reason lollapalooza results are possible is that almost nobody near the apex of power believes the paragraph above is true and they actively fight to stop people learning from extreme successes so there is gold lying on the ground waiting to be picked up for trivial costs. Nudging reality down an alternative branch of history in summer 2016 only cost ~£106 so the ‘return on investment’ if you think about altered GDP, technology, hundreds of millions of lives over decades and so on was truly lollapalooza. [\quote]

My understanding is that he sees a automation job apocalypse coming. To cope, the UK needs a highly skilled robot tending workforce. This requires huge levels of investment. These won't happen when labour is cheap. Therefore cutting off the cheap European labour is needed. His tech academy drive through Gove was another aspect of same aim

[Irelo]

Looks like now it's too late we will have another lockdown...

I heard that in UK people are allowed to go to the shops only if they have a special app, is it true?

[Bedlam]

Looks like now it's too late we will have another lockdown...

I heard that in UK people are allowed to go to the shops only if they have a special app, is it true?

No it is not.

There is an app to help reporting and tracing and all but essential shops are currently closed in England but you can go to the shops which are open regardless of whether you have the app or even a phone.

[madd0ct0r]

Same in Wales. Places where you spend significant time like a cafe or restaurant will take your details for track and trace, and some prefer that to be the person scanning a qr code tied to the NHS app, but a paper form is always available.

[Crazedwraith]

Priti Patel: Bullying inquiry head quits as PM backs home secretary

Any one else been following this. An investigation into Home Secretary Priti Patel's actions and bullying has been going on pretty well since she went back into government. (she was previously in Government and had to resign after a scandel) has determined she did break the code.

She's not resigning. The guy who made the report is.

Basically if you're in BoJo's corner you can get away with things apparently.

[Eternal_Freedom]

This is followed up by the BBC's report today that Rishi Sunak is seriously considering a pay freeze for all public sector workers to help offset all the borrowing the government's doing to pay for Covid.

So all those who the government kept saying were key workers, critically important, vital to keeping things going, and encouraging everyone to clap for on Thursday evenings...yup, they're stuffed.

Yes this does include me, just in case the bitter tone didn't give it away. Bastards.