Will Trump end up as a 'secondary' president to the GOP?

[Crossroads Inc.]

I am “relatively” certain this warrants its own thread, if just because the conversation topic I feel is sufficiently removed from general conversation on the election… Anyways…

Right from the start, Trump held an almost supernatural sway over the die-hard-core base of the GOP. Over the last 4 years, he grew this to even more insane and cult-like levels to the point that, with a few simple words, he could destroy some republican’s career or make someone’s life a living hell.
On top of that, again with a few choice tweets, he could just as easily sink legislation that would have otherwise seem a sure thing. Sure he had the power of the Veto, but that was something almost never used as, for the most part, he would kill a bill he didn’t like before it got to him.

So what is the point of this?
Well, once he is [eventually] out of office… These “powers” don’t go away. He can still tweet, still yell, still throw tantrums and still spread poison to everyone that follows him.
The question is, in the next year and through Biden’s presidency, exactly how much will the GOP be running things? Or will it be Trump? Even as a private citizen, if Trump sets off a tweet storm that some GOP candidate seemed to displease him, will they be doomed? Will candidates still have to kiss his ring to get elected? Can he do the same to bills? If there is the RARE moment were a bill has GOP support, will it evaporate if Trump wags his finger?

The last four years have been bizarre enough already, now moving forward, I genuinely find myself curious if we may have a private citizen who may end up wielding more political power than the actual President?

[Rogue 9]

That's going to depend on the Georgia Senate runoffs. Well, his ability to bring the Republican Party to heel won't, but the Republicans' ability to effectively do his bidding will. I think the GOP is going to be dealing with the fallout of Trump's subversion of their base - or perhaps more accurately, addition to their base of a bunch of previously disaffected radicals and driving out of their base the moderate wing of the party - for years.

[Crossroads Inc.]

You mean in terms of if the GOP retain control of the Senate or not?
Also, talk about "driving out the moderates and centrists" of the part is somewhat shaky. So far numbers show around 94 to 96% of all Republicans voted for Trump, thats actually UP from 2016. Talk about a "split" in the GOP, or them loosing moderates I would say may be deeply exagerated.

[Zaune]

Donald Trump, antipresident?

It's just been that sort of year, hasn't it.

[Rogue 9]

You mean in terms of if the GOP retain control of the Senate or not?
Also, talk about "driving out the moderates and centrists" of the part is somewhat shaky. So far numbers show around 94 to 96% of all Republicans voted for Trump, thats actually UP from 2016. Talk about a "split" in the GOP, or them loosing moderates I would say may be deeply exagerated.

Yes, I do mean that. If they don't control either house of Congress there's not much they can realistically do to jam up the government.

And he has driven a multitude of people out of the party. You can look to the existence of the Lincoln Project, or the many groups of former Republican prosecutors, career intelligence officials, career defense officials, and on and on who put out letters and statements condemning him and endorsing Biden.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Ok, I got you on that end. True there have been DROVES of very long term moderate Republicans.
I guess for me, many of those people I tend to write off as "not mattering" as they are politicians themselves, and not "your average voter" as it were.
Of course the numbers, like so many other things, could have been heavily skewed depending on how they were taken.

[RogueIce]

Yes, I do mean that. If they don't control either house of Congress there's not much they can realistically do to jam up the government.

They have 50 seats in the Senate, so even if both GA seats go D, all it takes is one defector if the Republicans vote in lock-step. It's really going to come down to who can maintain party unity the best.

Granted if Trump does still hold some "unofficial sway" that could work out well for the Dems because they'll have that to pressure any of their more reluctant conservative members to "not follow Trump" if he tweets against some contentious bill.

[Rogue 9]

Well, if the people he drove from the party changed their party affiliation, they wouldn't be in the set of "Republicans" for him to have captured 95% of. I realize the plural of anecdote is not data, but given my own past and present political leanings, I know a great number of people who have left the Republican Party both post-Tea Party and post-Trump (though mostly the former).

[GuppyShark]

The house and senate results seem to indicate that the anti-Trump 'moderates' still voted (R) down ticket.

[LadyTevar]

If the BEST RESULT happens, and Trump goes to jail, then he'll be unable to Tweet or influence people as openly as he will now. IF he goes to Jail, the rest of the GOP rats will leap off the ship, and do their damnest to wash off the stench of association.

That is, however, a Great Big IF.

[bilateralrope]

He can still tweet, still yell, still throw tantrums and still spread poison to everyone that follows him.

That is not guaranteed. Twitter is claiming that, once he leaves office, they will put him under the same rules as everyone else, not the protected status he currently has. If Twitter keeps their word, he will probably be banned mid-tantrum at the latest.

[Knife]

Yes, the man is going to be heavily investigated on National and State levels after al the shenanigans. Reams of info will be released at some point. He will probably retain a chunk of his supporters, but not enough to be any sort of unofficial leader.

[Elheru Aran]

Yes, the man is going to be heavily investigated on National and State levels after al the shenanigans. Reams of info will be released at some point. He will probably retain a chunk of his supporters, but not enough to be any sort of unofficial leader.

Depending on how hard he can hit the 'it's all a huge conspiracy/fraud/whatever' and 'TRUE AMERICAN' buttons in advance, he may retain enough of the lunatic fringe to tip scales. As we see in Georgia and other states, Republican margins are getting extremely thin and him endorsing or condemning a candidate could add or pull just enough voters away to influence their chances. That's assuming he doesn't get locked up, of course.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Yeah, ideally "LOCK HIM UP" is best, but that could be years down the road, real question is will he still be "a thing" by mid terms in 2022?
GOP margins ARE super thin these days, and, yeah, until / unless Twitter takes away his account, he will still influence things.

[Solauren]

You're missing how much was already pilling up against him, waiting for him to lose power.

#1 - Twitter is going to remove his protected status once he's out of office. With the stuff he posts, he'll be off Twitter within a week.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if he wasn't kicked off within 24 hours.

#2 - Any criminal investigation he interfered with, ordered stopped, or the like, even if it was indirectly via firing someone, is going to start back up, and have him added to it for obstruction.

#3 - There are apparently numerous state and federal level investigations pending against him. In theory, he could 'Pardon' himself of any federal level crimes, but I believe that involves him confessing to them all first. Those confessions could in theory still be used against him at the State level.
Even if they can't be used against him, this pardon would have no impact on state level charges.

(Quite frankly, I believe he ran for the Presidency as a joke at first, then went forward with it when he realized it might protect him from criminal investigations)

#4 - Without the power of the Presidency, I can see a lot of people he defamed over the last 5 years (counting his initial campaign) suing his ass off in civil court. (I'd go after him. His twitter account is a record he himself as verified of his statements)


The only thing that is going to come out of his Presidency that might benefit the GOP is identifying who they need to lose (Trumps base), and possibly profits from book sales for their members that own publishing companies. I can see every member of his senior staff and administration publishing books over their time in office.

[bilateralrope]

#3 - There are apparently numerous state and federal level investigations pending against him. In theory, he could 'Pardon' himself of any federal level crimes, but I believe that involves him confessing to them all first. Those confessions could in theory still be used against him at the State level.

Where are you getting the idea that he needs to confess from ?

I've never heard that before.

[Lord Revan]

You're missing how much was already pilling up against him, waiting for him to lose power.

#1 - Twitter is going to remove his protected status once he's out of office. With the stuff he posts, he'll be off Twitter within a week.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if he wasn't kicked off within 24 hours.

#2 - Any criminal investigation he interfered with, ordered stopped, or the like, even if it was indirectly via firing someone, is going to start back up, and have him added to it for obstruction.

#3 - There are apparently numerous state and federal level investigations pending against him. In theory, he could 'Pardon' himself of any federal level crimes, but I believe that involves him confessing to them all first. Those confessions could in theory still be used against him at the State level.
Even if they can't be used against him, this pardon would have no impact on state level charges.

(Quite frankly, I believe he ran for the Presidency as a joke at first, then went forward with it when he realized it might protect him from criminal investigations)

#4 - Without the power of the Presidency, I can see a lot of people he defamed over the last 5 years (counting his initial campaign) suing his ass off in civil court. (I'd go after him. His twitter account is a record he himself as verified of his statements)


The only thing that is going to come out of his Presidency that might benefit the GOP is identifying who they need to lose (Trumps base), and possibly profits from book sales for their members that own publishing companies. I can see every member of his senior staff and administration publishing books over their time in office.

From what I've heard he also owes a lot of money to people and his investments/companies aren't really giving enough (or at all) profit counter that.

[Mr Bean]

#3 - There are apparently numerous state and federal level investigations pending against him. In theory, he could 'Pardon' himself of any federal level crimes, but I believe that involves him confessing to them all first. Those confessions could in theory still be used against him at the State level.

Where are you getting the idea that he needs to confess from ?

I've never heard that before.

There's a supreme court case stating that acceptation a pardon is an acceptance of guilt. And you can be hauled into Congress because having a pardon means admitting your guilt. The Arizona sheriff, Joe Arpaio was a recent example of someone accepting a pardon then trying to claim no guilt and getting shut down hard by the Judiciary.

[Vendetta]

The other thing about a pardon is that if you've received a pardon for something you can be compelled to testify about it. Because the fifth amenment protection against self incrimination is no longer relevant, you've been pardoned anyway.

[Ralin]

#1 - Twitter is going to remove his protected status once he's out of office. With the stuff he posts, he'll be off Twitter within a week.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if he wasn't kicked off within 24 hours.

Thereby offering a once in a lifetime opportunity to whatever social media platform he moves to. There are already social media sites that are having right-wing influxes. Trump can probably make any one of them the next big thing, or at least give them a serious boost in that direction. While it might be nice if that means fewer right-wingers on Twitter and Facebook it'll make it that much easier to set up toxic echo chambers.

[bilateralrope]

There's a supreme court case stating that acceptation a pardon is an acceptance of guilt. And you can be hauled into Congress because having a pardon means admitting your guilt. The Arizona sheriff, Joe Arpaio was a recent example of someone accepting a pardon then trying to claim no guilt and getting shut down hard by the Judiciary.

What if the pardon is for "all crimes between {date} and {date}" ?

Yes, it's acceptance of guilt for something. But it's not guilt for anything specific.

#1 - Twitter is going to remove his protected status once he's out of office. With the stuff he posts, he'll be off Twitter within a week.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if he wasn't kicked off within 24 hours.

Thereby offering a once in a lifetime opportunity to whatever social media platform he moves to. There are already social media sites that are having right-wing influxes. Trump can probably make any one of them the next big thing, or at least give them a serious boost in that direction. While it might be nice if that means fewer right-wingers on Twitter and Facebook it'll make it that much easier to set up toxic echo chambers.

Unless they scare away advertisers. Then the social media platform has a choice: Kick out the Trumpers or lose income.

[Eternal_Freedom]

I'm not an expert, but I don't think you can do "blanket pardons" like you suggest - I think it's for specific things you have been charged with, convicted off or admitted to.

[Knife]

I'm not an expert, but I don't think you can do "blanket pardons" like you suggest - I think it's for specific things you have been charged with, convicted off or admitted to.

To be a pardon, it has to list the crime you're being pardoned from. If you accept the pardon, you're claiming you're guilty of listed crime.

[bilateralrope]

I listen to a podcast called All the Presidents Lawyers. The lawyer on there, a former federal prosecutor, says that the pardon only needs to be specific enough that it's clear if it applies to any prosecution attempt that might be made in the future.

So I'd like to see some source for this claim that a pardon needs to specify the crimes.

[TimothyC]

I'm not an expert, but I don't think you can do "blanket pardons" like you suggest - I think it's for specific things you have been charged with, convicted off or admitted to.

To be a pardon, it has to list the crime you're being pardoned from. If you accept the pardon, you're claiming you're guilty of listed crime.

Ford's Pardon of Nixon says:

Now, therefore, I, Gerald R. Ford, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from July (January) 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

LINK

Ergo, a pardon for anything done over a specified period is possible, but as noted, it would also open up "Individual 1" to testifying before congress on anything and everything that he did that wasn't overtly classified.