COVID-19 ongoing thread part 2

[B5B7]

What is really interesting is that Spanish flu originated in the USA, but is called Spanish flu because Spain had the most cases. Considering Covid-19 has most cases in the USA, maybe it should be called the American flu.

[Napoleon the Clown]

What is really interesting is that Spanish flu originated in the USA, but is called Spanish flu because Spain had the most cases. Considering Covid-19 has most cases in the USA, maybe it should be called the American flu.

More that Spain wasn't suppressing reporting on it in the name of wartime morale. I don't know how the US and Spain compared in terms of cases per capita, but Spain wasn't as heavily involved in WW 1 so they didn't feel the need to pretend a particularly nasty strain of flu was going around.

[Dominus Atheos]

What counts as "good vaccine supply" for the purpose of all these news stories reporting that America has it? In Portland Oregon we are still at the point that vaccination appointments are scheduled 10 days out and you have to log on early in the morning because each day's fill up quick. As a healthy adult I don't feel comfortable taking a spot and a dose from some else who really really wants one, and figured that when supply was actually high enough they'd contact me to schedule my dose, or do away with appointments all together and just make it drive-up like the flu shots.

Now I hear that since the US supply is so good, they are rerouting vaccine doses to India? This isn't the nicest sentiment to have, but... fuck you, don't send my dose to India.

Maybe I should be logging on at 8:01am and grabbing any appointment I can?

[Jub]

What counts as "good vaccine supply" for the purpose of all these news stories reporting that America has it? In Portland Oregon we are still at the point that vaccination appointments are scheduled 10 days out and you have to log on early in the morning because each day's fill up quick. As a healthy adult I don't feel comfortable taking a spot and a dose from some else who really really wants one, and figured that when supply was actually high enough they'd contact me to schedule my dose, or do away with appointments all together and just make it drive-up like the flu shots.

Now I hear that since the US supply is so good, they are rerouting vaccine doses to India? This isn't the nicest sentiment to have, but... fuck you, don't send my dose to India.

Maybe I should be logging on at 8:01am and grabbing any appointment I can?

Good is when anybody can get vaccinated with an appointment even if there is competition for those slots. Where I'm at the only people who can get vaccinated, outside of special circumstances, are people born in 1961 or earlier (60+), indigenous people born in 2003 or earlier (18+), and clinically extremely vulnerable people. I'm 33 and will need to wait months to get a jab partially because the US won't send any supply north to their supposed closest ally. So yeah, you guys have it easy compared to a lot of places.

[Broomstick]

How good the vaccine situation in the US depends to a large extent on 1) where you are and 2) can you manage transport.

We have places where it is still a struggle to get a dose no matter who you are or how old.

We have places where everyone 16 and older can just walk in and get the shot.

We have place where vaccine is plentiful but no one wants it.

We have people in places where it is difficult to get the vaccine traveling to places where it is more readily available.

In my state anyone 16 an over can now get a shot but you still need an appointment. I've heard some places are already moving to walk in. But even so, only 25% of Indiana is fully vaccinated at this point in time. So... a lot of people have had their first shot for the 2-part vaccine, but most have NOT had their second yet.

I agree - the vaccine situation is somewhere between "less than ideal" and "fucked up".'

Sorry, Jub - I wish there was something I personally could do but there isn't.

As a healthy adult I don't feel comfortable taking a spot and a dose from some else who really really wants one, and figured that when supply was actually high enough they'd contact me to schedule my dose, or do away with appointments all together and just make it drive-up like the flu shots.

I think we need to stop thinking "I'm too healthy, I'll wait" and just get the damn shot at your first opportunity. We need to get as many people immune as fast as possible at this point. You're not taking that spot from someone else, you're protecting yourself, and in a pandemic protecting yourself IS protecting other people.

Maybe I should be logging on at 8:01am and grabbing any appointment I can?

Yes, you should.

[Raw Shark]

the US won't send any supply north to their supposed closest ally.

That's just what we call "pillow talk," baby!

[Jub]

No worries Broomstick, I'm just miffed that my government has dropped the ball on getting us supplies and that we no longer have the capacity to do it for ourselves. I'd like it if the US would toss us a bone, but more than that I hope this opens our eyes to the need for self-sufficiency within our nation for just such unlikely events as we're currently living through.

[Tsyroc]

Because the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have to be frozen for long term storage and then have time limits on how long they are good for once thawed and moved to refrigeration it's ideal to know how many doses you'll need per day. The doses are also drawn up from vials into the small syringes they are administered from. We have 1 or 2 people who come in early (0500), run a report for how many people who are scheduled for the day, and then draw up an hour or two's worth of doses before the clinic opens at 0700. The rest of the doses are drawn up at the clinic as the day goes on. Our clinic is open Monday through Saturday. It used to be 0700-1900 but I think it has changed to around 0700 to 1930 as they've been doing fewer shots per day. I think for yesterday we only had about 80 people signed up.

After the vaccine is given people are told to stick around for at least 15 minutes in case they have a bad reaction. So this waiting time also impacts how many people can be vaccinated at a time. It looks like pharmacies near me have started doing the vaccines and I don't know if they have the people wait around or not. The one time I was there it did look like they were doing walk-ins.

We are exclusively using the Moderna vaccine now. They are a little easier to deal with than the Pfizer vaccine, although we did get a freezer specifically to handle the long term storage requirements of the Pfizer* vaccine because that was rolled out first. The Pfizer vaccine needs to be mixed/diluted first while the Moderna comes ready to draw up. In Tucson either are still being used at the various places administering the shots.

*Pfizer: Before mixing, the vaccine may be stored in an ultra-cold freezer between -80°C and -60°C (-112°F and -76°F).

[Rogue 9]

What counts as "good vaccine supply" for the purpose of all these news stories reporting that America has it? In Portland Oregon we are still at the point that vaccination appointments are scheduled 10 days out and you have to log on early in the morning because each day's fill up quick. As a healthy adult I don't feel comfortable taking a spot and a dose from some else who really really wants one, and figured that when supply was actually high enough they'd contact me to schedule my dose, or do away with appointments all together and just make it drive-up like the flu shots.

Now I hear that since the US supply is so good, they are rerouting vaccine doses to India? This isn't the nicest sentiment to have, but... fuck you, don't send my dose to India.

Maybe I should be logging on at 8:01am and grabbing any appointment I can?

The county health department here had a walk-ins welcome drive up vaccine clinic today. My appointment that I made back in March is tomorrow.

[TimothyC]

My hometown is at the point where they are now going to be offering house calls for those who want a covid shot but have transportation issues in an effort to improve the uptake. I don't know how successful this is going to be, but I'm glad to see it happening.

[LadyTevar]

Stupid fuckin' Gov Jim Justice has declared that IF we get 65% of the State vaccinated, then he'll drop the Mask Mandate as of June 20th.

HOWEVER, the WAY he said it 90% of the dumbasses heard "June 20th we're dropping the Mandate".

[Mr Bean]

What counts as "good vaccine supply" for the purpose of all these news stories reporting that America has it? In Portland Oregon we are still at the point that vaccination appointments are scheduled 10 days out and you have to log on early in the morning because each day's fill up quick. As a healthy adult I don't feel comfortable taking a spot and a dose from some else who really really wants one, and figured that when supply was actually high enough they'd contact me to schedule my dose, or do away with appointments all together and just make it drive-up like the flu shots.

Now I hear that since the US supply is so good, they are rerouting vaccine doses to India? This isn't the nicest sentiment to have, but... fuck you, don't send my dose to India.

Maybe I should be logging on at 8:01am and grabbing any appointment I can?

The county health department here had a walk-ins welcome drive up vaccine clinic today. My appointment that I made back in March is tomorrow.

Here in Philly wait times don't exist, plenty of local places are only seeing about 10% of doses being used each day.

[Broomstick]

Stupid fuckin' Gov Jim Justice has declared that IF we get 65% of the State vaccinated, then he'll drop the Mask Mandate as of June 20th.

HOWEVER, the WAY he said it 90% of the dumbasses heard "June 20th we're dropping the Mandate".

No matter how he said it the dumb herdbeasts were going to hear it exactly the way they want to hear it.

[Jub]

I wonder what the chances are that, in spite of having more than enough vaccine and Canada having vaccine shortages, the US actually manages to hit head immunity after Canada just because people refuse to take their dose?

[Broomstick]

I'd put that at better than 50/50...

[TimothyC]

Ohio is moving toward a June 2nd lifting of state-wide public health orders. The Governor also announced that for those between the ages of 12 and 17 will be eligible for a series of five scholarship drawings that will result in a four year full-rides to any state college/university. For adults, there will be five $1 Million lotteries, eligible to anyone who has received their first dose of the vaccine. The scholarship drawing registration opens next Tuesday, and the drawings will be once a week starting next Wednesday. The "Ohio Vax-A-Million" lottery drawings start two weeks from today.

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachm ... emarks.pdf

We're firmly in the "Bribe People" stage, but this is a cheap price.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Might as well offer a carrot before getting the stick out. Leave the carrot on the table after the stick comes out.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

In response to the spread of the "Indian" variant of COVID in the UK over the past week the UK has gradually lowered the minimum age at which you can make an appointment to get the vaccine so today I was able to book my first one for Wednesday next week.

[PainRack]

Because an uptick in cases seperate from opening/relaxation of NPI appears to be ongoing in multiple countries.



https://khn.org/news/article/how-better ... your-home/

Start by opening as many windows as the weather allows, said Joseph Fox, a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning engineer for a large school district in Ontario, Canada. If possible, open windows on opposite sides of the home to create a cross breeze, which can help sweep viruses outside and bring fresh air inside.



For extra protection, place a box fan in the patient's window, facing outward, to draw germy air outside. Seal any openings around the sides of the fan, said Jim Rosenthal, CEO of Tex-Air Filters, a company that manufactures air filtration products in Fort Worth, Texas.

Some simple and cheap ways to help improve ventilation at home, whether you nursing sick people or just want to reduce your chances

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Just how far behind the rest of the world is North Korea? COVID is ripping through the country, which is in over its head:
Kim Jong-un calls in the military as North Korea grapples with its worst Covid-19 outbreak.

Fifty people have died of suspected Covid-19 in North Korea's first - and worst - acknowledged outbreak of the virus as leader Kim Jong-un blasted the pandemic response.

More than half a million people are in quarantine and 1.2 million have fallen ill with a fever that has rapidly spread among the largely unvaccinated population since April.

Kim ordered his military to respond to the surge of the largely undiagnosed virus outbreak as he accused health officials of failing to distribute medicines to pharmacies due to their “irresponsible work attitude”, state media said on Monday

A lockdown was ordered on Thursday and public health officials, teachers and others have been tasked with identifying people with a fever so they can be quarantined.

While the claim was largely doubted, its strict border closure, large-scale quarantines and propaganda that stressed anti-virus controls as a matter of “national existence” may have staved off a huge outbreak until now.

More than 564,860 people are in quarantine due to the fever, while eight further deaths and 392,920 newly detected fevers were reported on Monday, the North's emergency anti-virus headquarters said.

North Korea is believed to lack Covid tests and is mostly relying on isolating people with symptoms at shelters.

A major outbreak of the virus would put North Korea's broken health care system under considerable strain especially as many of its 26 million people are believed to be unvaccinated, and malnourishment and other conditions of poverty are widespread.

The country turned down millions of Covid vaccine doses offered by the UN-backed Covax distribution programme.

South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol said the South was willing to send vaccines, medicine, equipment and health personnel to the North if it’s willing to accept. South Korean officials say Pyongyang so far has made no request for Seoul’s help.

[aerius]

IF this paper is confirmed you're not going to like the implications.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 936v1.full

Excerpt:

Importance The performance of immunoassays for determining past SARS-CoV-2 infection, which were developed in unvaccinated individuals, has not been assessed in vaccinated individuals.

Objective To evaluate anti-nucleocapsid antibody (anti-N Ab) seropositivity in mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial participants after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the trial’s blinded phase.

Design Nested analysis in a Phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy trial. Nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing were taken from all participants on Day 1 and Day 29 (vaccination days), and during symptom-prompted illness visits. Serum samples from Days 1, 29, 57, and the Participant Decision Visit (PDV, when participants were informed of treatment assignment, median day 149) were tested for anti-N Abs.

Setting Multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 99 sites in the US.

Participants Trial participants were ≥ 18 years old with no known history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and at appreciable risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or high risk of severe Covid-19. Nested sub-study consists of participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase of the trial.

Intervention Two mRNA-1273 (Moderna) or Placebo injections, 28 days apart.

Main Outcome and Measure Detection of serum anti-N Abs by the Elecsys (Roche) immunoassay in samples taken at the PDV from participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase. The hypothesis tested was that mRNA-1273 recipients have different anti-N Ab seroconversion and/or seroreversion profiles after SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to placebo recipients. The hypothesis was formed during data collection; all main analyses were pre-specified before being conducted.

Results We analyzed data from 1,789 participants (1,298 placebo recipients and 491 vaccine recipients) with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase (through March 2021). Among participants with PCR-confirmed Covid-19 illness, seroconversion to anti-N Abs at a median follow up of 53 days post diagnosis occurred in 21/52 (40%) of the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients vs. 605/648 (93%) of the placebo recipients (p < 0.001). Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral copies at diagnosis was associated with a higher likelihood of anti-N Ab seropositivity (odds ratio 1.90 per 1-log increase; 95% confidence interval 1.59, 2.28).

This is likely why some of my co-workers have come down with covid multiple times in the last 4-5 months. The spike protein has already evolved to get around the vaccines, and since they don't develop N-antibodies after being infected they're effectively unprotected and will continue to be infected by current & future variants of covid.

[Soontir C'boath]

*snip*

I think you need to read the paper again.

These data show that, among the participants with PCR-confirmed Covid-19 disease, anti-N Ab seropositivity at a median of 53 days post diagnosis occurred in 40% of the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients vs. 93% of the placebo recipients. While an increase in seroreversion cannot be ruled out, given the short time frame the more likely explanation is a vaccine-induced reduction in seroconversion. Anti-N seropositivity correlated with illness visit SARS-CoV-2 viral copy number, with each log increase in viral copy number nearly doubling the odds of anti-N seropositivity at the PDV. As the viral copy number on the day of the illness visit in mRNA-1273 vaccinated Covid-19 cases has been shown to be 100-fold lower than that in placebo recipient Covid-19 cases,9 the lower anti-N seropositivity in the mRNA-1273 recipients could be partly explained by their reduced exposure to N-antigen. However, strong vaccine effects remain; at 2.0 log10 copies/ml the predicted probability of seroconversion was 0.15 for vaccinated Covid-19-cases compared to 0.71 for placebo recipient Covid-19 cases. This may be due to a difference in the live virus replication between vaccine and placebo recipients, which cannot be differentiated by the RT-PCR test. Another potential explanation is that the vaccine has much larger effects on reducing replication outside the nose, as was shown in a study evaluating the mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a non-human primate model.

Which makes sense, the paper states those who took the placebo had a higher viral copies so the body produced more antibodies to fight it off.

Also, the study included 1789 participants (1298 placebo and 491 vaccinated) and of those infected, 648 were placebo and 52 were vaccinated.

[LadyTevar]

*snip*

I think you need to read the paper again.

These data show that, among the participants with PCR-confirmed Covid-19 disease, anti-N Ab seropositivity at a median of 53 days post diagnosis occurred in 40% of the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients vs. 93% of the placebo recipients. While an increase in seroreversion cannot be ruled out, given the short time frame the more likely explanation is a vaccine-induced reduction in seroconversion. Anti-N seropositivity correlated with illness visit SARS-CoV-2 viral copy number, with each log increase in viral copy number nearly doubling the odds of anti-N seropositivity at the PDV. As the viral copy number on the day of the illness visit in mRNA-1273 vaccinated Covid-19 cases has been shown to be 100-fold lower than that in placebo recipient Covid-19 cases,9 the lower anti-N seropositivity in the mRNA-1273 recipients could be partly explained by their reduced exposure to N-antigen. However, strong vaccine effects remain; at 2.0 log10 copies/ml the predicted probability of seroconversion was 0.15 for vaccinated Covid-19-cases compared to 0.71 for placebo recipient Covid-19 cases. This may be due to a difference in the live virus replication between vaccine and placebo recipients, which cannot be differentiated by the RT-PCR test. Another potential explanation is that the vaccine has much larger effects on reducing replication outside the nose, as was shown in a study evaluating the mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a non-human primate model.

Which makes sense, the paper states those who took the placebo had a higher viral copies so the body produced more antibodies to fight it off.

Also, the study included 1789 participants (1298 placebo and 491 vaccinated) and of those infected, 648 were placebo and 52 were vaccinated.

Please translate this for the non-scientific in the group? Like me?
What does this actually MEAN?

[Tribble]

*snip*

I think you need to read the paper again.

These data show that, among the participants with PCR-confirmed Covid-19 disease, anti-N Ab seropositivity at a median of 53 days post diagnosis occurred in 40% of the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients vs. 93% of the placebo recipients. While an increase in seroreversion cannot be ruled out, given the short time frame the more likely explanation is a vaccine-induced reduction in seroconversion. Anti-N seropositivity correlated with illness visit SARS-CoV-2 viral copy number, with each log increase in viral copy number nearly doubling the odds of anti-N seropositivity at the PDV. As the viral copy number on the day of the illness visit in mRNA-1273 vaccinated Covid-19 cases has been shown to be 100-fold lower than that in placebo recipient Covid-19 cases,9 the lower anti-N seropositivity in the mRNA-1273 recipients could be partly explained by their reduced exposure to N-antigen. However, strong vaccine effects remain; at 2.0 log10 copies/ml the predicted probability of seroconversion was 0.15 for vaccinated Covid-19-cases compared to 0.71 for placebo recipient Covid-19 cases. This may be due to a difference in the live virus replication between vaccine and placebo recipients, which cannot be differentiated by the RT-PCR test. Another potential explanation is that the vaccine has much larger effects on reducing replication outside the nose, as was shown in a study evaluating the mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in a non-human primate model.

Which makes sense, the paper states those who took the placebo had a higher viral copies so the body produced more antibodies to fight it off.

Also, the study included 1789 participants (1298 placebo and 491 vaccinated) and of those infected, 648 were placebo and 52 were vaccinated.

Please translate this for the non-scientific in the group? Like me?
What does this actually MEAN?

Oh, I want to make a layperson’s guess!

In unvaccinated individuals Covid tended to hit harder, last longer and produce a lot more of the virus. Because of this the immune system of the unvaccinated (assuming they survived) had to work harder and produce a lot more antibodies, so proportionally they would tend to have more broadly neutralizing antibodies overall than a vaccinated individual.

Plus due to being injected the vaccine immune cells aren’t necessarily concentrated in the areas (like the nose) where Covid hits hardest.

Of course, even if that’s the case I’d rather be fully vaccinated and have to fight off a few mild infections vs rolling the dice and hope that I survive without major organ damage, just because a full on infection might produce a better response.

Am I close?

[aerius]

Please translate this for the non-scientific in the group? Like me?
What does this actually MEAN?

The covid virus has 2 key parts; the spike (S) protein which allows the virus to enter & infect cells, and the nucleocapsid (N) protein which is in charge of all the viral reproduction once a cell has been infected. The former can and does mutate rapidly and has a ton of mutations available to it, the latter is pretty stable and doesn't have many mutations available, if it mutates too much the virus can't reproduce anymore and dies.

When an unvaccinated person is infected with covid, the immune system will produce antibodies for both the S and N proteins. Since the N protein remains fairly similar in all variants of the virus, the immunity you get after recovering from an infection provides broad immunity against all variants regardless of how much the S protein mutates. If you got the original or Delta strains, your immune system will still recognize and fight off Omicron and all the other variants going around right now.

With the vaccines, all of them except Sinovac target the S protein alone, and this worked well when they were initially released. The problem is most people who were vaccinated fail to develop antibodies for the N protein after being infected with covid, which initially wasn't a problem since the S protein antibodies alone were enough to stop the infection or at least prevent serious symptoms. This is no longer true. Current variants of the virus have evolved enough that the S protein portion of the virus is no longer recognized by the S protein antibodies in the vaccinated person, so if you don't have the N protein antibodies you're effectively unprotected. Most people were vaccinated don't have and don't develop antibodies for the N protein, which means they can be repeatedly infected with the current variants of covid.

IF this paper is confirmed, we done fucked ourselves good.