Canada Election 2021

[Tribble]

It’s that time of the year again, where Canadians go to the polls to choose their leader….

But wait, wasn’t there an election just a couple of years ago?

Indeed there was, and technically an election wasn’t due for another couple of years.

However, because Trudeau only had a minority he decided to call one anyways because:

He’s tired of having to negotiate and being held accountable by other parties, even though they all flat out said they didn’t want an election and would not hold any confidence votes to bring his government down,

Covid- cases are down, and he wants to get a majority before the 4th wave ramps up

Wants to beat O’Toole, the new Conservative party leader, before he has a chance to establish himself and of course,

Polls had indicated if he held an election now, he would win.

Edit: sorry, officially he wanted “the people” to decide now all of a sudden who they wanted to be leader… even though the majority weren’t interested in an election at all.

Unfortunately for him what was initially assumed as an easy victory has now turned into a close race, with the Conservatives and Liberals neck and neck while the other parties increasing support possibly peeling away enough voters from the Liberals to ensure a Conservative Victory.

Turns out some people are rather annoyed (myself included) at this needless election, especially given present circumstances.

That being said, there’s still plenty of time to go.

Place your bets now!

[Solauren]

O'toole - To new, sounds like Trump, and he's to close to Doug Ford in behavior.

Singh - Sorry, I can't see the current population electing a non-white guy to a majority government. A minority government, maybe.

BQ - Impossible to form a government since they only run in Quebec.

Odds are Trudeau will be re-elected. A majority wouldn't surprise me, but I feel the current minority, with maybe another seat or two, is most likely.

[Tribble]

On the other hand, everyone also thought Doug Ford never stood a chance, on account of him being our version of Trump (or rather Trump being the US version of the Ford brothers, who came out first ) … yet he won a majority.

Though to be fair, Wynne had a lot more baggage going into that election than Trudeau does now (not for lack of trying on Trudeau’s part).

[aerius]

I'm drawing a dick on my ballot. They're all fucking dicks.
For the first time since I've been of voting age, I can't stomach any of the parties or candidates.

[Tribble]

Hmmmm, maybe I’ll find out what party one of my family members is voting for, then tell them I’m voting for their opponent just to cancel their vote out

[Coop D'etat]

I wouldn't underestimate the sheer toxicity of the current Parliament as the motivation to go to the polls. Reporters on the hill says that's it's been even worse than the 2008 nadir. It seems virtual Parliament did the same thing the internet usually does to public discourse, encourages aggressive shitposting.

Environments where Pierre Polliverres of the world thrive in tend to drag the level of public debate much lower.

[Solauren]

On the other hand, everyone also thought Doug Ford never stood a chance, on account of him being our version of Trump (or rather Trump being the US version of the Ford brothers, who came out first ) … yet he won a majority.

Though to be fair, Wynne had a lot more baggage going into that election than Trudeau does now (not for lack of trying on Trudeau’s part).

Also, Ford was riding on his family name, and therefore connections to his brother, and a strong sympathy vote.

Ford didn't so much as win the provincial election, as everyone else lost it.

Wynne had her own baggage, plus the previous administrations baggage. She didn't cancel the gas plant contracts, but she was left holding the multi-billion dollar bag.

While Trudeau's government certainly has scandal level issues, most of those are inherited (i.e the Residential school system), caused by who he had to deal with (i.e Trump), or relatively stupid stuff by members of his party or staff. The worse I can recall directly on him is a 'black face' photo from when he was in college, during an time and environment that was considered acceptable for the purposes of theater/cosplay.

However, nothing has landed on him and stuck yet.

[Solauren]

As an update - polls are showing that the Conservatives are only ahead of the Liberals by 2 - 3% (at 34 and 31 respectively), with the NDP at 20%. The Liberals are still projected to take the most seats and form the government.

I see three possibilities right now
#1 - Conservative win with a minority, that is immediately removed by a Liberal/NDP coalition that takes a slim majority.
#2 - Liberals take a minority government, but need to be prooped up by the NDP (status quo)
#3 - Liberals take a slim majority, and have to be warry of bench crossers pushing them into a minority.

[Coop D'etat]

As an update - polls are showing that the Conservatives are only ahead of the Liberals by 2 - 3% (at 34 and 31 respectively), with the NDP at 20%. The Liberals are still projected to take the most seats and form the government.

I see three possibilities right now
#1 - Conservative win with a minority, that is immediately removed by a Liberal/NDP coalition that takes a slim majority.
#2 - Liberals take a minority government, but need to be prooped up by the NDP (status quo)
#3 - Liberals take a slim majority, and have to be warry of bench crossers pushing them into a minority.

That isn't how the system works. The sitting PM has first opportunity to test the house, only if they elect to resign does another party get invited to form a government.

In that scenario, if the CPC takes more seats in a plurality, but the LPC makes a deal to remain in power that passes the house, the CPC never forms a "minority." Its also relatively unlikely in that scenario that LPC and NDP form a formal coalition with NDP ministers in government, more likely a formal confidence and supply agreement.

The political media has been awfully loose with the terms lately and that's generated some confusion about how the system works.

[Solauren]

Yes, I know, but I was more focused on the end outcomes, then the immediate results.