MKSheppard wrote: ↑2022-02-03 02:04pm
I'd like to point out the main issue here is the same thing that was for Kuwait in 1990.
Post-WW2, everyone agreed following Nuremberg, that wars of conquest were pretty much over; along with irredentist movements (after much redrawing of the borders of Europe and moving millions of people)
Saddam's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 over oil slant drilling and annexing Kuwait as the 19th Province of Iraq has many parallels with the entire Crimean mess; while the whole thing with the "Donetsk People's Republic"; "Luhansk People's Republic", "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" etc reminds Europe of the whole irredentist mess just before and during WW2.
Unlike the Russo-Georgian War which was provoked by the Georgians launching the Battle of Tskhinvali (who knew that shelling a town and then assaulting it wouldn't cause a war, *I'm a smarmy asshole*); the Russians pretty much out of nowhere flooded Crimea with Little Green Men and annexed it on the pretext of "lol unrest in Ukraine".
Yes, I know that in 1954, Khrushchev had Crimea transferred from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR by decree; and that there had been irredentist movements in Crimea dating to the breakup of the USSR...the way the Russians went about the whole business totally pissed off the Ukrainians; to the point that the Ukrainians formally severed Russian/Soviet era lineages and heritages for the Ukrainian military in around 2015-16.
That's a pretty big deal; and I think the Ukrainians are mad enough to basically do some cleaning up of the current borders in the Donbass and then formally abandon the Donbass and Crimea, in order to close out the "must not have active border conflicts or disputed territory" lede required forNATO membership.
BONUS: Don't forget Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17), shot down by the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade with a firing unit that just mysteriously disappeared back into Russia following the shootdown, which quite annoyed the Netherlands.
I was wondering when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait would be mentioned, when Saddam went in and a coalition kicked him out. Somehow I doubt that any military intervention on behalf of Ukraine when the shit hits the fan would remain confined to Ukraine.
Hmmmm, treaties and morals aside, sufficiently in-depth minefields could be a deterrent, but they have a pretty large border with Russia. It would take A LOT of mines.
Mass drone swarms are also a potential deterrent, now that they are becoming available. Of course, Russia could do the same thing.
Russia certainly has experience when it comes to placing minefields, dating back to World War 2. But unless Russia itself is expecting to be invaded, mining the border isn't going to do them any good.
Meanwhile, China has stuck their oar in:
China joins Russia in opposition to Nato expansion at Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony.
Russia and China have pushed back against US pressure over Ukraine and Taiwan as their leaders met at the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.
Hours before the opening ceremony, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping issued a joint statement highlighting what it called "interference in the internal affairs" of other states in a reference to the current situations in Ukraine and Taiwan.
China joined Russia in its opposition to the expansion of Nato and called for the alliance "to abandon the ideological approaches of the Cold War".
The statement backs up a call from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi who last week told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Moscow’s security concerns need to be addressed, a notable policy shift for Beijing.
Putin is the most important guest at this year's Winter Olympics after many western nations, including the UK, chose not to send any political representatives to the event in protest to the treatment of the Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities.
The statement issued by the two leaders said: "Some forces representing a minority on the world stage continue to advocate unilateral approaches to resolving international problems and resort to military policy."
China and Russia are committed to “deepening back-to-back strategic cooperation,” Mr Xi was quoted as telling Mr Putin.
“This is a strategic decision that has far-reaching influence on China, Russia and the world,” Mr Xi said, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.Faced with a “complex and evolving international situation,” the two sides “strongly support each other” in confronting what Mr Xi called “regional security threats” and “international strategic stability."
Mr Putin praised “unprecedented” close relations with China, in his opening remarks to President Xi carried by Russian television.
President Putin also recalled his presence in Beijing for the 2008 Summer Olympics, and the Chinese delegation’s attendance at Russia’s 2014 Winter Games in Sochi, calling such exchanges “to a certain extent a tradition".
Beijing has become the first city to host both winter and summer Games, but the opening ceremony has been watered down partly due to Covid restrictions.
The discussions between the two leaders mark their first in-person meeting since 2019 as the two nations have increasingly aligned their foreign policy's in recent years in opposition to Western powers.A buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine has fueled Western fears that Moscow is poised to invade its neighbour.
Russia has denied planning an offensive but urged the US and its allies to provide a binding pledge that Nato won’t expand to Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations or deploy weapons there, and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe - demands firmly rejected by the West.
The US has reacted with promises of severe sanctions and the deployment of more troops to Eastern European Nato countries.
Some observers suggested that Beijing is closely watching how the US and its allies act in the standoff over Ukraine as it ponders further strategy on Taiwan, arguing that indecision by Washington could encourage China to grow more assertive.The US is Taiwan’s main supplier of fighter aircraft and defensive arms and is legally bound to treat threats to the island democracy as matters of “grave concern.”
The joint statement said that Russia reaffirms that Taiwan is an integral part of China and opposes Taiwan’s independence in any form.
China claims the self-governing island as its own territory, to be annexed by force if necessary.
Economic and diplomatic cooperation has expanded into the military field in recent years, as Russia and China have held a series of joint war games, including naval drills and patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.
In August, Russian troops for the first time deployed to Chinese territory for joint manoeuvres.
