Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Broomstick]

But.. the IL-76s. Sure, to drop paratroopers they won't be flying at maximum speed (jumping into a Mach 0.8 airstream is generally not a good thing) so they'll be "slow" (relative to what they could do) but IL-76's are supposed to have a service ceiling of 43,000 feet. Shouldn't they be able to fly the IL-76s high enough to be at minimal or no risk from Ukrainian ground-based weapons? Fly 'em in high, HALO jump, and hope the Ukrainians don't spot the troops descending soon enough to shoot them out of the sky (yeah, shooting a guy under canopy has often been considered bad form, but war isn't about fair or nice).

How the hell did the Ukrainians take down two IL-76s? Is that confirmed? Can they not do HALO jumps? Was it mechanical failure due to shitty maintenance? WTF?

HALO isn't a standard paratrooper skill. They generally only static line jump. Only special ops have HALO as a standard skill. Most paratrooper parachutes aren't especially steerable. Also, perfectly acceptable to shoot at paratroopers under canopy. Can't shoot people under canopy escaping from a plane, but that's because they hors de combat then. Paratroopers are still being transported when they're under canopy.

I'd heard that the initial paratroopers were supposed to be special forces of some sort. Of course, I have no way to confirm that. Maybe they were or weren't.

Most recent reports are that two more IL-76's have been downed for a total of four. Unconfirmed. In which case the Ukrainian anti-aircraft capability is better than I thought it was. But then, like I've been saying, I'm no expert.

[Dominus Atheos]

https://twitter.com/psyuhp/status/1497688742341005316

Operation Red fuckin' Dawn.

I'm going to need more evidence than a tweet that the Russian VDV is doing an unsupported airborne insertion on a hostile urban center. No one could be that stupid after Crete.

If it did happen, the only explanation is Putin is so desperate that he's ordering everything but the kitchen sink be thrown at Ukraine.

[Broomstick]

I've seen a number of what looks like paratrooper drops on the internet in the last few days.

Overconfidence? Arrogance? Desperation? Deepfakes?

Don't know. I'm trying to be skeptical and work on getting confirmation of what I see.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Given the players involved, I wouldn't be surprised that it IS a deepfake. I mean, the only way we're identifying deepfakes has been largely because the creator screwed up...

[Broomstick]

So - night has fallen in Kyiv. The city is under rocket and artillery attack. Tanks are rolling towards the city. Thermobaric weapons have been spotted in Ukraine today. Once again I will go to bed and when I wake up I will wonder if any cities have been destroyed.

[bilateralrope]

'I voted for peace, not a war': Russian politicians break ranks with Kremlin to condemn Ukraine invasion

Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow
16:02, Feb 27 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is proving so unpopular that several Russian MPs are withdrawing their support for the Kremlin.

The State Duma, the lower house of Russian parliament, last week voted to recognise the independence of eastern Ukraine’s separatist regions. President Vladimir Putin signed the motion into law on Monday.

Two days later, Russia’s upper house of parliament gave the green light to sending Russian troops “abroad”. However, it was not clear until Thursday morning that Putin had ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Mikhail Matveyev, a member of the State Duma, called on the Kremlin on Saturday to stop the invasion.

“By voting to recognise the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, I voted for peace, not a war. For Russia to become a shield for the Donbas, not for bombing Kyiv,” he said.

Another MP, Communist Oleg Smolin, said on Friday he was “shocked” by the invasion and was sorry for the loss of life.

Their statements came amid a myriad of anti-war petitions from Russian teachers, scientists and doctors.

A famed Soviet photographer and author called on Putin and his entourage to retire in a video clip posted on Novaya Gazeta’s website.

“Why don’t you all have some rest? You did such a great job. You all are pension age. It’s time to retire,” said Kyiv-born 83-year-old Yuri Rost.

Even some of the most Kremlin-friendly pundits began to publicly question the rationale behind Moscow unleashing a war on a sovereign nation.

Andrey Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council that advises the foreign ministry, told the BBC on Saturday he had not advised Russians officials to launch an invasion and that many in the Russian government were shocked at the decision.

“I would say that many of us in the foreign office were surprised and I would say shocked and I would even say devastated to see what is happening,” he said.

“This is an important red line that was crossed by the Russian leadership and the repercussions are likely to be very significant.”

Russia’s foreign ministry sought to punish some of the country’s most respected journalists for speaking out against the invasion.

Elena Chernenko, a veteran foreign affairs reporter for the Kommersant newspaper who often travelled with Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, said on Friday she was ejected from his pool for “unprofessionalism”.

Condemnation of the war was spreading across Russian society on Saturday. Architects, doctors and psychiatrists all published their anti-war petitions to add to earlier appeals by representatives of other professions.

Sporadic protests were reported in several Siberian cities, while in Moscow, police sealed off a central square, fearing unrest.

In St Petersburg, activists came to the city’s Piskaryovskoye cemetery, the resting place for the victims of the Siege of Leningrad, where they donned masks depicting skulls and held placards saying: “There are no patriots among the dead.”

Garage Museum of Contemporary Art, Moscow’s major contemporary art foundation, said it would halt work on “all exhibitions until the human and political tragedy that is unfolding in Ukraine has ceased”.

“We cannot support the illusion of normality when such events are taking place,” the museum said in a statement.

The museum was founded in 2008 by Dasha Zhukova and her then husband Roman Abramovich. On its Facebook page, the museum posted a black square, a symbol of Russia’s burgeoning anti-war movement.

In Moscow and London, several staff at the Russian state-funded news outlet RT reportedly resigned in response to the invasion.

The Moscow Art Theatre, Russia’s legendary drama theatre, has redone the logo on its Facebook page, adding a dove with a peace branch to the seagull from Anton Chekhov’s eponymous play.

For the third consecutive day, Russian state media appeared on Saturday to avoid calling the invasion a “war” and described it as a “special operation in the Donbas”. Their coverage focused on incremental gains made by separatist fighters in the region of eastern Ukraine, propped up by Russian forces.

Russian authorities who on Friday threatened to go after independent media quoting “unofficial” sources in their coverage moved to ban the word “war.”

Russia’s communications watchdog asked 10 media outlets to delete articles containing reports of civilian deaths and air strikes on Ukrainian cities, which according to the Kremlin do “not correspond to reality”.

The watchdog also took issue with the media calling Russia’s military operation “an assault, an invasion or a declaration of war”.

The media outlets that refuse to comply would have their websites blocked and face hefty fines.

Russian officials later on Saturday also appeared to make good on their threats to limit access to social media as Facebook and Twitter were taking longer than usual to load.

The Telegraph

If this is how strong opposition to the war already is in Russia, I wonder how much stronger that opposition will get. It could end the invasion of Ukraine, especially if Putin gets removed.

[Solauren]

I'm wondering now if this was Putin and his buddies were losing control of Russia (troop movement, build up to show their power and control), and when that failed, they launched the invasion, which is now making the reassertion fail even harder.

[Lord Revan]

I suspect only way Putin will gets removed from power is either thru force, or if Putin knows he's gonna die soon of natural causes and thus can't be punished by his enemies.

Then there's the worst case scenario that who ever succeeds Putin will be even worse.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Then there's the worst case scenario that who ever succeeds Putin will be even worse.

So, an Empire Earth Novaya Russia scenario? Oh boy that would be problematic...

[Batman]

If Putin Is removed whoever succeds him is also going to be weak at least initially. That's the window to strike to make sure that no matter how much worse they WANT to be, the rest of the world makes sure he doesn't have the means to.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

If Putin Is removed whoever succeds him is also going to be weak at least initially. That's the window to strike to make sure that no matter how much worse they WANT to be, the rest of the world makes sure he doesn't have the means to.

However, that means we'll need to invade Russia, which means Russia's nuclear policy comes into play...

[GuppyShark]

I've been away due to work (being so tired from one day that I went straight to sleep and slept through the opening of the war; and then being at work for two straight days due to an ice storm for the first two days of the war).

Welcome back, you're one of the few people I can trust will cut through the BS and get to the 'meat and potatoes' of this dross.

[bilateralrope]

I suspect only way Putin will gets removed from power is either thru force, or if Putin knows he's gonna die soon of natural causes and thus can't be punished by his enemies.

Then there's the worst case scenario that who ever succeeds Putin will be even worse.

I'm more worried about a civil war breaking out within Russia.

[Broomstick]

We've never seen a civil war in a nuclear power. That could be interesting in all the wrong ways.

[Highlord Laan]

Might be getting pretty fucking spicy for the Russians soon:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... ode%3Dtrue
"The French Foreign Legion has decided that it will allow its Ukrainian soldiers to return to Ukraine with their full combat gear."

AKA: "France deploying the Foreign Legion to Ukraine. They're totally just on vacation, they swear on Putin's whore mother's grave."

[Col. Crackpot]

I suspect only way Putin will gets removed from power is either thru force, or if Putin knows he's gonna die soon of natural causes and thus can't be punished by his enemies.

Then there's the worst case scenario that who ever succeeds Putin will be even worse.

I'm more worried about a civil war breaking out within Russia.

This is a valid concern at this point. Shut off from SWIFT and half of the central bank reserves frozen. The Ruble will crash to nothing Monday morning. It’s already at parity with Robux.
(yes the in game currency from RoBlox). Fucking RoBux! Russians are already mobbing ATMs and there will be bank runs and a full panic Monday when the average Russia can’t access their increasingly useless currency.

There are videos on Twitter of Spetznaz (not just lowly conscripts) looting Ukrainian markets for supplies. The Russian Army is seeing rifles and molotovs behind every blade of grass.

The entire world (almost) has suddenly decided that they hate Russia with the burning fire of a thousand suns with protests even in places like Iran. When you manage to piss off both Iran and Israel, then you seriously fucked up. Even the famously reserved Chinese are showing increasing signs that they are done with Russia shit.

I am going to come out and say that I don’t see good odds that Russia survives in its current form. Maybe as a hermit state, maybe Balkanized. I don’t know. But the prospect of a civil war in a nation with 6000 nuclear warheads is terrifying.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-02-27/

Congratulations Russia! You just convinced Germany to re arm itself! €100 billion this year in supplemental spending (their normal annual budget is €47 billion) and future spending at 2% of GDP.

[His Divine Shadow]

That's what needed to happen many years ago to avoid this really. Like I said earlier. Heck they should probably go higher than 2%

[Col. Crackpot]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/russia-v ... t-12553278

And now Vladdy is waiving his thermonuclear dick at the entire world. Fuck this guy, fuck his apologists and God help us all.

Edit posted the wrong link first time

[Crazedwraith]

So when russia fires them off will we get a lot of posts about how this is our fault for provoking them and how this is equally bad as when the US nuked Japan?

[MKSheppard]

Belarus may be undergoing a slow motion revolution.

Background in a series of tweets:

================

https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/statu ... 7GfjA&s=19

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya)
Lukashenka committed treason – he made our country a participant in the invasion of Ukraine. So I declared myself as the national leader of Belarus to protect the sovereignty & independence of our country, represent it in security negotiations & crisis management in the region.

Basically, Tsikhanouskaya is the only person who challenged Luka in the 2020 elections and she was forced into exile in Eastern Europe (Poland/Balt States) as a result.

===========

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1497649869909118976

Belsat (quoting multiple sources): Belarusian troops expect to be deployed to fight in Ukraine in a few days.

===========

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/statu ... aH6Lg&s=19

Lukashenko confirms missile strikes have been launched from Belarus against Ukraine because "Kyiv deployed 3-4 missile divisions near our border".

==============

What's happening today is a vote on the 2022 Belarusian Constitutional Referendum (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Bela ... referendum)

that

Basically gives Lukashenko Immunity for acts he commits/committed as president of Belarus

Changes Article 18 of the Belarusian constitution that says "the Republic of Belarus aims at making its territory a nuclear-free zone", enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.

==============


https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/statu ... wsrc%5Etfw

Belarusians chanting "No to war" outside one of polling stations in Minsk right now. Via @MotolkoHelp

===========

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/statu ... wsrc%5Etfw

Given the level of repression, the only possible for Belarusians to gather in protest against the invasion was to turn out to vote in the referendum at the same time all across the country – today at 2PM local time. It seems to have worked! Videos coming from all over the country

==============

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/149 ... wsrc%5Etfw

Lukashenka's flag was removed from the #Belarusian embassy in #Vilnius and replaced with the national white-pass-white flag and the #Ukrainian flag. It is reported that the national flag was also noticed at the Belarusian embassy in #Paris.

=====================

We may be seeing a slow motion coup/revolution inside Belarus, provoked by Lukashenko's actions.

Right now, I think it all depends on what Luka does in the next 24 hours.

The previous SRBM and airstrikes he had the Belarussian Air Force launch against Ukraine can be walked back, with some difficulty, but committing ground forces to Ukraine kind of can't.

[Col. Crackpot]

So when russia fires them off will we get a lot of posts about how this is our fault for provoking them and how this is equally bad as when the US nuked Japan?

I’m sure the some delusional lunkheads in the Tankie crowd will say that. Though I will say aside from some rabid fools on the fringes of the far right and far left the condemnation of Russia has been surprisingly universal. There have been protests in Tehran and even the Taliban has issued a statement critical of Russia.

[MKSheppard]

So when russia fires them off will we get a lot of posts about how this is our fault for provoking them and how this is equally bad as when the US nuked Japan?

Speaking of Japan...

Link

Japan should discuss a possible sharing of nuclear weapons similar to that of NATO members in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday.

NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements let the U.S. keep its nuclear weapons in Europe under its custody. “Many people in Japan probably don’t know about the system,” Abe said Sunday on a Fuji Television show.

“Japan should not treat as a taboo discussions on the reality of how the world is kept safe,” said Abe, who oversaw a steady rise in defense spending during his time as premier that ended in 2020.

Abe also said Japan, which had been devastated by atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the final stages of World War Two, would have to maintain its goal of abolishing nuclear weapons. Hemmed in by a pacifist constitution it adopted after the war, Japan relies heavily on the U.S. “nuclear umbrella” to deter growing regional threats.

“It’s important to make progress toward that goal, but when it comes to how to protect the lives of Japanese citizens and the nation, I think we should conduct discussions by taking various options fully into consideration,” Abe said.

[MKSheppard]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/149 ... wsrc%5Etfw

Lukashenka's flag was removed from the #Belarusian embassy in #Vilnius and replaced with the national white-pass-white flag and the #Ukrainian flag. It is reported that the national flag was also noticed at the Belarusian embassy in #Paris.

Regards that, turns out it was independent protestors breaking onto the Embassy Grounds, not the embassy staff defecting.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

A civil war within Russia would be the best case scenario from a nuclear perspective- an theoretical invasion would be preceded by a nuclear first strike since Russia would use its nukes anyway, however when the threat comes from within you have to wonder, is Russia going to deploy nuclear weapons on its own soil?

I've been hearing stories about Ukranian units being fed data from NATO AWACS flying in Poland if this is to be believed:

Regarding China/Taiwan, there are claims that China's military buildup for the last 20 years has been aimed at one thing, an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Though as I see it they'd need to take out the US 7th fleet to pull that off, which would lead to war.