Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Col. Crackpot]

I guarantee after this the Taiwanese will be buying every anti tank, anti air and anti ship missile they can get their hands on.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I guarantee after this the Taiwanese will be buying every anti tank, anti air and anti ship missile they can get their hands on.

If they aren't already that is.

[Highlord Laan]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/russia-v ... t-12553278

And now Vladdy is waiving his thermonuclear dick at the entire world. Fuck this guy, fuck his apologists and God help us all.

Edit posted the wrong link first time

Pity none of uhmurrikas politicians are of a caliber to meet him eye to eye and dare him to try something.

[His Divine Shadow]

So what do people think of this video, it tries to explain russian goals in eastern europe and in Ukraine in particular.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

[Agent Fisher]

Saw reports that the Germans voted in a 100 Billion Euro bump to the Bundeswehr for this year and mandated a 2% GDP annually. Congrats Russia, you got Germany to rearm.

Here's the acticle.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a plan to beef up the German military on Sunday, pledging €100 billion ($112.7 billion) of the 2022 budget for the armed forces and repeating his promise to reach the 2% of gross domestic product spending on defense in line with NATO demands.

Scholz announced the new allocation in a speech during a special session of parliament on Germany's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He said the spending would include investments and armaments projects for the German military.

Scholz also said Germany would supply the Ukrainian military with weaponry, in a reversal of previous policy.

"We need to support Ukraine in its hour of desperate need," the chancellor said.

"In attacking Ukraine, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin does not just want to eradicate a country from the world map, he is destroying the European security structure," Scholz told German lawmakers.

Why is the defense boost important?
"It's clear we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country in order to protect our freedom and our democracy,'' Scholz said.

Germany reported a record high in NATO defense spending for 2021, submitting a budget of €53 billion for the current year.

That figure marks a 3.2% increase over the year before. In 2020, spending was capped at an estimated €51.4 billion.

The €100 billion Scholz said would be dedicated for the armed forces this year is a one year boost though the move is significant, as Germany has often been criticized by the United States and other NATO allies for not investing enough in defense.

"We are not alone in defending peace," Scholz said, adding Germany would be deploying more forces to NATO's eastern flank.

Former German defense leaders have been publicly circumspect about the country's lack of military readiness since Putin gave a speech last Monday announcing his intentions and motivations for invading Ukraine.

The decision to step up and meet NATO's target for defense spending of 2% of GDP came as bitter medicine to some lawmakers , who could be heard reacted negatively to the chancellor's announcement during the Bundestag address.

[Broomstick]

This is a valid concern at this point. Shut off from SWIFT and half of the central bank reserves frozen. The Ruble will crash to nothing Monday morning. It’s already at parity with Robux.

Out of curiosity I just checked the ruble's value> At 3:15 pm Chicago time on February 27, 2022 is it worth 1.2¢ US. And you say it's going to crash downward from that lofty peak? Apparently two days ago it was worth 80¢. I'd say it's already in free fall.

There are videos on Twitter of Spetznaz (not just lowly conscripts) looting Ukrainian markets for supplies. The Russian Army is seeing rifles and molotovs behind every blade of grass.

Sucks to be them.

I mean, sure, I have a teeny bit of sympathy for the draftees who are barely old enough to need to shave, who never wanted to be there and haven't a clue. A bit. Especially if they surrender and stop fighting.

The entire world (almost) has suddenly decided that they hate Russia with the burning fire of a thousand suns with protests even in places like Iran. When you manage to piss off both Iran and Israel, then you seriously fucked up. Even the famously reserved Chinese are showing increasing signs that they are done with Russia shit.

I have a feeling that initially the Chinese wanted to see if Putin could pull it off, but as Russia circles the drain it's looking like a bad bet for the Chinese.

But the prospect of a civil war in a nation with 6000 nuclear warheads is terrifying.

Yes. When "they nuke their own cities" is not the worst possible option it's pretty fucking bad.

[Broomstick]

That's what needed to happen many years ago to avoid this really. Like I said earlier. Heck they should probably go higher than 2%

It's been a relatively peaceful time in Europe. After a few decades of that it becomes easy to let your guard down, especially when surrounded by friends.

[Broomstick]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-02-27/

Congratulations Russia! You just convinced Germany to re arm itself! €100 billion this year in supplemental spending (their normal annual budget is €47 billion) and future spending at 2% of GDP.

There have been protests in Tehran and even the Taliban has issued a statement critical of Russia.

So when russia fires them off will we get a lot of posts about how this is our fault for provoking them and how this is equally bad as when the US nuked Japan?

Speaking of Japan...

Link

So... since I woke up this morning and went to work --

1) Germany has decided to re-arm
2) The fucking Taliban have decided Putin is too extreme, and
3) Japan is thinking of stationing nukes on their territory?!?

Holy. Fucking. Shit.

:::: pinches self several times ::::

Goddamn, I am awake and this really happening?

[Juubi Karakuchi]

So what do people think of this video, it tries to explain russian goals in eastern europe and in Ukraine in particular.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

It rings true, unfortunately. I admit I had not heard about the Crimean water supply issue.

Putin is in a mess. If he loses the Ukraine, he loses almost everything. Aside from the border issue, he risks losing a major petrochemical market, and if Crimea becomes non-viable, his Black Sea naval base as well.

Except...he's brought that disaster upon himself.As Agent Fisher has just reported, he has managed to provoke Germany into rearming. Germany, which a few days ago was reluctant to do anything remotely military, and would seemingly let Ukraine burn rather than stop buying Russian petrochemicals. Now it is rearming, has changed its laws to allow its weapons to be exported to war zones (meaning it and its customers can arm Ukraine), and unless I am very much mistaken, it has agreed to kick Russia out of Swift.

If that's not a strategic failure, I don't know what is.

[Broomstick]

Regarding China/Taiwan, there are claims that China's military buildup for the last 20 years has been aimed at one thing, an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Though as I see it they'd need to take out the US 7th fleet to pull that off, which would lead to war.

I think that's why China has been trying to look neutral while watching from the sidelines - they want to see how this goes. Given the world-wide reaction to Russia's aggression they might reconsider any current plans to take Taiwan by force. At least for the present. The current situation isn't what they want, but it's not intolerable, either.

[Col. Crackpot]

Broomstick there are Cryptocurrencies worth fractions even hundredths of a cent. Yeah, the Ruble is at the bottom of the barrel right now. But if you cut a hole in the bottom of the barrel…

[Jub]

This is a valid concern at this point. Shut off from SWIFT and half of the central bank reserves frozen. The Ruble will crash to nothing Monday morning. It’s already at parity with Robux.

Out of curiosity I just checked the ruble's value> At 3:15 pm Chicago time on February 27, 2022 is it worth 1.2¢ US. And you say it's going to crash downward from that lofty peak? Apparently two days ago it was worth 80¢. I'd say it's already in free fall.

Where did you look for that? I did my own quick search and it looks like it was at $0.018 CAD in October and has fallen to $0.015 CAD since the invasion. That's still a significant drop, but not a complete freefall as of yet.

[ray245]

Regarding China/Taiwan, there are claims that China's military buildup for the last 20 years has been aimed at one thing, an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Though as I see it they'd need to take out the US 7th fleet to pull that off, which would lead to war.

That's not the sole reason. China wants to be a big power on par with the US. All the destroyers and aircraft carriers aren't just for threatening an invasion of Taiwan, but more to do with establishing a blue water navy that protect their interest around the world. I.e. Africa, the belt and road and etc.

I guarantee after this the Taiwanese will be buying every anti tank, anti air and anti ship missile they can get their hands on.

Buying all the weapons in the world isn't going to do much good if the morale of the Taiwanese military is in shambles. Several high-ranking Republic of China's (because that's what Taiwan's real name is and what the military still believe in) generals were revealed to be spies of China.

You seem very uneducated about the actual state of Taiwanese-China relations.

The Military of Taiwan is largely KMT dominated- meaning they are largely pro-China leaning in some way or another.


The problem is the current government of Taiwan is led by the DPP party, a party which many KMT hardliners utterly hate. While the DPP party is pushing strongly for Taiwanese native identity, the KMT hardliners still believe that they are still Chinese, or rather the legitimate China government. They still strongly buy into the idea of Republic of China as an entity.

Yes, the KMT would disagree with the CCP over what China really means ( some of the hardliners would happily want to retake China under the KMT if they could), but they believe they are still the military of the Republic of China, not the Republic of Taiwan.

If a DPP president decides to rename Republic of China into Republic of Taiwan, I am willing to bet some officers in the ROC military would outright say the government is now illegitimate and possibly conduct a coup if they could.

So the only way Taiwanese military would fight hard to defend Taiwan is if Taiwan was invaded unprovoked like what Russia is doing to Ukraine now. And given what China has observed, that tend not to do well for your invasion force if you are met with a hostile and united population.

But the important thing for Taiwan is not about buying all the weapons it can find. It's about fixing the morale of their military first. Taiwan already have a difficult time retaining and recruiting soldiers as it is, and they abolished military service a while back. Most of my Taiwanese relatives would also attest to the fact that most Taiwanese conscripts are low in morale and their training are extremely outdated.

[ray245]

I think that's why China has been trying to look neutral while watching from the sidelines - they want to see how this goes. Given the world-wide reaction to Russia's aggression they might reconsider any current plans to take Taiwan by force. At least for the present. The current situation isn't what they want, but it's not intolerable, either.

What they want is ensure Taiwanese leadership maintain the status quo, i.e. still acknowledging themselves as "China", aka the Republic of China which is Taiwan's formal and actual name, rather to turning it into Republic of Taiwan.

The status quo benefit both sides, aside from the occasion rhetoric. War isn't going to serve the interest of any side in this conflict. Unlike Russia, China is more tied to the world economy and depends heavily on imports and exports.

Russia has built their economy to be resilient to sanctions. China haven't. That's the good thing to come out of China's economic rise. That it is largely tied and dependent on trade with the world.

China will only use force if it feels like there is an existential threat, which would be Taiwan declaring itself Republic of Taiwan. Hence the US and most world powers will whack hard on Taiwanese politician if they try something stupid like that.

[Sidewinder]

If anyone visits Reddit's Sino or GenZedong subreddits, they'll find the following news:
Ukrainian forces brutally beating Indian Students in Ukraine after India abstained on UN vote against Russia.
Indian (Malayali) media reporting from Indian students in Ukraine who talk about getting assaulted and stopped from crossing the border
Both include videos.

Meanwhile, the New York Times is running articles about how China supposedly supports Russian aggression against Ukraine, e.g., "U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine" and "Why the Chinese Internet Is Cheering Russia’s Invasion", which the Sino subreddit mocked as "U.S.: 'Hey China, I know I've accused you of the most atrocious crimes based on phony evidence we've created, I know we made some hostile foreign policies towards you, but can you help us fix this while we send war vessels to your Taiwan Strait?'" and "Unable to credibly blame the Chinese government for the war in Ukraine, NYTimes turns to smearing the general Chinese public for allegedly 'supporting it' anyway.". What the fuck do they expect China to do, anyways? Putin is determined to end the threat Ukraine supposedly poses to his rule (whether or not it actually does, is another matter); he is NOT a Chinese puppet, nor is Russia a Chinese vassal, meaning the only way China could stop his plans was to pose an actual military threat, i.e., threaten to invade.

Ukrainians seem more determined to find scapegoats for their predicament, than solving their current problems. The same can be said of the US Government.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

EU is giving fighter jets to Ukraine.

[Broomstick]

Broomstick there are Cryptocurrencies worth fractions even hundredths of a cent. Yeah, the Ruble is at the bottom of the barrel right now. But if you cut a hole in the bottom of the barrel…

Yes, cryptos which are new and all of which fluctuate rapidly. Not long-established currencies that large major power economies are based/run on.

This is a valid concern at this point. Shut off from SWIFT and half of the central bank reserves frozen. The Ruble will crash to nothing Monday morning. It’s already at parity with Robux.

Out of curiosity I just checked the ruble's value> At 3:15 pm Chicago time on February 27, 2022 is it worth 1.2¢ US. And you say it's going to crash downward from that lofty peak? Apparently two days ago it was worth 80¢. I'd say it's already in free fall.

Where did you look for that? I did my own quick search and it looks like it was at $0.018 CAD in October and has fallen to $0.015 CAD since the invasion. That's still a significant drop, but not a complete freefall as of yet.

Looked up the exchange rate for earlier this week (not October) and for yesterday. Currencies do rise and fall, it's possible it was that low in October. It's also not just the change but how fast it occurred. Assuming I didn't screw up that's a huge difference in just a few days.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Well, my whole sympathy for Donbas has kind of evaporated. And my suspicion of how internally divided Ukraine was was stupidly misplaced.


In the survey and drone scanning industry groups I'm in there's been been a few interesting requests for drone hardware to be sent to polish border. Consumer units saw a lot of scouting use in Syria, and I wonder what the hefty industrial ones will see use as. Artillery spotters?

[Crazedwraith]

Well, my whole sympathy for Donbas has kind of evaporated. And my suspicion of how internally divided Ukraine was was stupidly misplaced.

Being invaded by foreigners is traditionally a great way to unify a country at least temporaily.

Apparently peace talks are now happening. Unlikely to find enough common ground to end this though.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well, my whole sympathy for Donbas has kind of evaporated. And my suspicion of how internally divided Ukraine was was stupidly misplaced.

Being invaded by foreigners is traditionally a great way to unify a country at least temporaily.

Apparently peace talks are now happening. Unlikely to find enough common ground to end this though.

The Ukrainians demands will be simple enough: GTFO of Ukraine! I've no idea what Russia will demand.

[Crazedwraith]

Well, my whole sympathy for Donbas has kind of evaporated. And my suspicion of how internally divided Ukraine was was stupidly misplaced.

Being invaded by foreigners is traditionally a great way to unify a country at least temporaily.

Apparently peace talks are now happening. Unlikely to find enough common ground to end this though.

The Ukrainians demands will be simple enough: GTFO of Ukraine! I've no idea what Russia will demand.

Yeah according to live news:

Ahead of the meeting, Ukraine's president said his country wanted an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Meanwhile, Russia wants to reach an agreement that benefits both sides.

No word on what 'benefits both sides' means.

[LaCroix]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russia- ... ruble.html

Russia has doubled its central bank interest rate.
Seems things aren't going quite well...

Since they might be kicked out of SWIFT, and maybe worse - wonder what will happen to my SBERBANK subsidiary, and the loan I have with them...

[LaCroix]

Addendum:

It seems a run on SBERBANK and VTP on top of the Sanctions caused them to slip into insolvency, or at least the brink of...

[Jub]

Looked up the exchange rate for earlier this week (not October) and for yesterday. Currencies do rise and fall, it's possible it was that low in October. It's also not just the change but how fast it occurred. Assuming I didn't screw up that's a huge difference in just a few days.

I've double-checked my sources and compared the Ruble against both CAD and USD. The Ruble's highest point in the past 5-years looks to be around $0.018 USD with the low, current value, at just below $0.012 USD. I think the 80 number you're getting is USD to Ruble's where it has ranged between 1 USD being worth ~55 Rubles and the current value of 1 USD being valued at ~ 85 Rubles.

[Bedlam]

Being invaded by foreigners is traditionally a great way to unify a country at least temporaily.

Apparently peace talks are now happening. Unlikely to find enough common ground to end this though.

The Ukrainians demands will be simple enough: GTFO of Ukraine! I've no idea what Russia will demand.

Yeah according to live news:

Ahead of the meeting, Ukraine's president said his country wanted an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Meanwhile, Russia wants to reach an agreement that benefits both sides.

No word on what 'benefits both sides' means.

I imagine there would be some 'discussion' over definition of Ukraine's borders from the Russian side. Putin sold the invasion to his people as the prevention of genocide against ethnic Russian's, I would imagine to be able to save face he will need to either keep the areas with high Russian populations or at least let them be recognized as an independent area.