Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[ray245]

I turn 46 years old this year. I remember being a terrified kid in the early 1980’s thinking the would would end at the drop of a hat. I remember trying to figure out why the USSR would shoot down a Korean airliner and why that meant that somehow we could have World War III. At age 7. I resent the possibility that my kids (or anyone else’s kids be they in Moscow or London or Toronto or anywhere else) may need to face that same existential dread.

At the risk of sounding like Clint Eastwood in Grand Torino, kids today need a damn history lesson.

But Col. Crackpot, it doesn't matter! We are all going to die anyway! You're just a coward for worrying about nukes! /sarcasm.

That said whatever clandestine shit we can pump into Ukraine and get away with I’m all for. And pay no attention to the AWACS and Rivet Joint planes in Poland. Im sure they are just training and are in no way feeding the Ukrainians real time intel.

I support what NATO is doing. That's a good way of helping Ukrainians without turning it to WW3.

[Crazedwraith]

Everyone understands what a no fly zone is, what it entails and what the consequences of escalation.

I've not actually said there should be one at any point, i just think it's a dick move to complain about Ukrainians even talking about one. Talking about it is not an issue, doing it is.

[ray245]

Everyone understands what a no fly zone is, what it entails and what the consequences of escalation.

I've not actually said there should be one at any point, i just think it's a dick move to complain about Ukrainians even talking about one. Talking about it is not an issue, doing it is.

It's not about Ukrainians talking about it. It's about how such talks will embolden idiots in the West into doing something stupid.

Someone stupid like Trump.

[Crazedwraith]

Everyone understands what a no fly zone is, what it entails and what the consequences of escalation.

I've not actually said there should be one at any point, i just think it's a dick move to complain about Ukrainians even talking about one. Talking about it is not an issue, doing it is.

It's not about Ukrainians talking about it. It's about how such talks will embolden idiots in the West into doing something stupid.

Someone stupid like Trump.

Trump? Who has literally no power whatsoever?

NATO isn't going to be magically compelled to do something stupid just because Ukraine asked 3 times.

[Broomstick]

Everyone needs to shut the fuck up about no-fly zone. Including Ukraine.

The other thing is that the Russian air forces seems... strangely absent. They aren't using fighters/bombers much. In which case a NFZ won't change things because it does fuck all to stop missiles and artillery.

The bulk of the damage is caused by artillery and missiles. A NFZ won't change that. But a NFZ has a high chance of triggering WWIII (if we're not already in the start of one). I'm very sorry, Ukraine, but we can't give you that.

[Broomstick]

A no-fly zone is not in their interest. Being nuked as a country isn't going to help them "win" the war.

Ukraine's desire to escalate the war isn't going to help them.

Ray, you're coming off like a pissy coward in this thread and only thinking of your safety. You don't want the actions of Ukraine to put you in the firing line, so anything they do that isn't strictly aimed at de-escalation seems to draw your ire.

Get over yourself and accept that Ukraine will do anything in its power to retain sovereignty and that it is their right to do so. Their defense, and any contributions to their defense, will never be the primary cause of any nukes being launched because Ukraine has no nukes to launch. Given that their allies are unlikely to set off the first nuclear warhead any nuclear exchange that comes of this war will be entirely Russia's fault.

I say this as somebody living in a city that would almost certainly be targeted by Russian nukes, I fully support Ukraine doing anything they can to kick Russia's teeth in. If the nukes fly, well, sucks to be me but I can't do anything about that, and neither can you. Stop worrying about shit you can't change.

^ This.

At this point I don't care what Ukraine does to defend itself. They're facing destruction and death. They can ask for whatever they want, as often as they want.

We might have sound reasons for saying "no", but they have every right to say whatever the fuck they want, ask for whatever the fuck they want, do whatever the fuck they need to do.

It's easy to sit on the other side of the world and say sorry, we're not going to risk the entire world burning for you. It's something else entirely when you're in the line of fire and your world is already on fire. The people standing in the fire are allowed to scream as loud as they want to.

[Col. Crackpot]

Everyone understands what a no fly zone is, what it entails and what the consequences of escalation.

I've not actually said there should be one at any point, i just think it's a dick move to complain about Ukrainians even talking about one. Talking about it is not an issue, doing it is.

It's not about Ukrainians talking about it. It's about how such talks will embolden idiots in the West into doing something stupid.

Someone stupid like Trump.

What does Donald Trump have to do with anything right now? The bulk of the GOP is moving back to it’s traditional ideology and he is an increasingly irrelevant lunatic ranting from his orangutan cage in South Florida. A broke one too now that the Russian banks are cut off.

[Gandalf]

Charitably, I'd guess that could mean the Trump flavoured part of the American political landscape, some of whom have some influence in their party?

[ray245]

Everyone understands what a no fly zone is, what it entails and what the consequences of escalation.

I've not actually said there should be one at any point, i just think it's a dick move to complain about Ukrainians even talking about one. Talking about it is not an issue, doing it is.

It's not about Ukrainians talking about it. It's about how such talks will embolden idiots in the West into doing something stupid.

Someone stupid like Trump.

What does Donald Trump have to do with anything right now? The bulk of the GOP is moving back to it’s traditional ideology and he is an increasingly irrelevant lunatic ranting from his orangutan cage in South Florida. A broke one too now that the Russian banks are cut off.

Someone like Trump. Not necessarily him, but there's always another chance of an idiot being elected to power.

[Agent Fisher]

Zelensky has to keep banging on the drum for a NFZ. One, it boosts morale at home, showing his people that he's not on the firing line, but he's still fighting for them.

Two, it boost public support around the world to continue supporting Ukraine.

Three, it also helps pressure those friendly governments. Everyone in the EU and NATO knows that a NFZ is a non-starter, so instead, we're gonna dump every portable anti-tank, MANPAD, rifle, armor, bullets, food, fuel, everything they could need into Ukraine as our way of going 'Sorry we can't shoot down the russians for you. Here's a metric shit ton of Stingers and other MANPADs to do it yourself, plus, we'll see about getting all the old COMBLOC NATO members to dump their old Soviet/Russian SAM systems to you so you can use them.'

Also, with the rate the RuAF has been going, a NFZ might not even be needed. They're losing platforms they can't easily replace, adn they're losing pilots that they certainly can't replace quickly.

[ray245]

Zelensky has to keep banging on the drum for a NFZ. One, it boosts morale at home, showing his people that he's not on the firing line, but he's still fighting for them.

Two, it boost public support around the world to continue supporting Ukraine.

Three, it also helps pressure those friendly governments. Everyone in the EU and NATO knows that a NFZ is a non-starter, so instead, we're gonna dump every portable anti-tank, MANPAD, rifle, armor, bullets, food, fuel, everything they could need into Ukraine as our way of going 'Sorry we can't shoot down the russians for you. Here's a metric shit ton of Stingers and other MANPADs to do it yourself, plus, we'll see about getting all the old COMBLOC NATO members to dump their old Soviet/Russian SAM systems to you so you can use them.'

Also, with the rate the RuAF has been going, a NFZ might not even be needed. They're losing platforms they can't easily replace, adn they're losing pilots that they certainly can't replace quickly.

The West is going to send those weapons with or without the call for NFZ anyway.

If anything, Ukraine needs more planes to fly themselves than a NFZ.

More Ukrainian planes can attack Russian artillery and etc. A NFZ don't do that.

[Jub]

Zelensky has to keep banging on the drum for a NFZ. One, it boosts morale at home, showing his people that he's not on the firing line, but he's still fighting for them.

Two, it boost public support around the world to continue supporting Ukraine.

Three, it also helps pressure those friendly governments. Everyone in the EU and NATO knows that a NFZ is a non-starter, so instead, we're gonna dump every portable anti-tank, MANPAD, rifle, armor, bullets, food, fuel, everything they could need into Ukraine as our way of going 'Sorry we can't shoot down the russians for you. Here's a metric shit ton of Stingers and other MANPADs to do it yourself, plus, we'll see about getting all the old COMBLOC NATO members to dump their old Soviet/Russian SAM systems to you so you can use them.'

Also, with the rate the RuAF has been going, a NFZ might not even be needed. They're losing platforms they can't easily replace, adn they're losing pilots that they certainly can't replace quickly.

The West is going to send those weapons with or without the call for NFZ anyway.

If anything, Ukraine needs more planes to fly themselves than a NFZ.

More Ukrainian planes can attack Russian artillery and etc. A NFZ don't do that.

Where are they going to get the airfields and skilled pilots to use those planes, how are those planes going to get there, and who's going to have enough to spare to give them away?

[Mr Bean]

Where are they going to get the airfields and skilled pilots to use those planes, how are those planes going to get there, and who's going to have enough to spare to give them away?

Well here's one idea the only trick bit is getting the volunteer flyers their own planes. I wonder how many mothball old F-15s and F-16s are sitting around. All the Tomcats are gone or in Iran... wonder how many old American allies (SK, maybe SA or Australia) might be willing to "retire" a bunch of planes for pilots to fly for Ukraine. That said little chance of this because this is 2022 not the 1940s and fighters these days can't be shoved in an old shed and maintained by former car mechanics who can make half the parts on site. We could get them the planes and the pilots but not keep them flying for long, maybe three missions tops per plane? Minus enemy action.

[Sidewinder]

War On the Rocks has an article detailing why a no-fly zone is not only politically problematic for Ukraine's allies, but useless to the Ukrainians themselves.

THE DANGEROUS ALLURE OF THE NO-FLY ZONE

MIKE PIETRUCHA AND MIKE BENITEZ
MARCH 4, 2022
COMMENTARY

<Snip.>

Today’s Reality

The success of a no-fly zone relies on the premise of conventional deterrence backed by the resolve to swiftly and ferociously enforce it if challenged. Attempting this today against a nation with any semblance of artillery, man-portable air defense systems, and/or advanced surface-to-air missiles tends to indicate that a no-fly zone is neither operationally feasible nor politically appetizing.

<Snip.>

The proliferation of modern air defenses since the 1990s dictates that more sortie apportionment and resources are required to negate these threats — much more so than counter-air fighters. That’s the way it was in the Iraqi no-fly zones, where Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses assets were available alongside aircraft tasked for defensive counter-air or reconnaissance missions.

<Snip.>

In Syria, the idea of establishing a no-fly zone regularly surfaced, a misguided response to the use of Syrian (and later Russian) airpower. The eventual solution was not so much a no-fly zone as a defensive counterair effort over areas held by friendly forces. There, a no-fly zone was problematic for both practical and policy reasons since the majority of civilian casualties did not occur from air attack. The challenges of protecting civilian populations in a multi-faceted civil war were far more comprehensive than anything seen before, and the direct involvement of Russian airpower in Syria totally changed the nature of the conflict. Then, as now, any no-fly zone would have involved direct combat with Russian forces.

A No-Fly Zone in Ukraine?

Today, in Ukraine, the air defense threat does not appear to have materialized against Ukrainian aircraft, at least in terms of ground-based threat. That may be because, at this time, Russian forces still only control a small part of Ukraine, and they cannot emplace air defenses in the territory they do not control. Army air defenses move along with the forces that they defend and require some degree of protection against ground threats. Nevertheless, the Russian Aerospace Forces do possess long-range air defenses that can reach well into Ukraine from Russia (and perhaps Belarus). The Russian air force operate long-ranged S-300 and S-400 variants. These mobile systems can cover large swathes of Ukrainian airspace without entering Ukraine, although low-altitude coverage would be spotty and limited.

Escalation

The establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine would unquestionably be a major escalation in the conflict and would bring NATO and possibly other European forces into direct conflict with Russian forces. It’s also not clear what military advantage might accrue. The majority of Ukrainian civilian casualties seem not to be inflicted by airpower but by artillery. Russian precision strikes seem to be inflicted by ballistic and cruise missiles, which once fired cannot be interdicted by aircraft in a no-fly zone.

The fact that Russia does not yet have air superiority has not significantly impeded its advance. Ukraine does not control its skies either — the two sides have air parity. Enforcement of a no-fly zone would require overflight of Ukrainian airspace, putting coalition forces directly in the air space both sides are fighting over — and at extreme risk from both Russian and Ukrainian air defenses. Surface-based air defenses in bordering nations could only command airspace where Russian aircraft aren’t flying, having no practical effect except to commit NATO. The obvious Russian response, attacking aircraft over Ukraine from outside Ukraine, would be yet another escalatory element that would render Russian air defenses politically immune from counterattack.

<Snip.>

In Ukraine, the potential no-fly zone is fundamentally a political statement. In this case, the political statement is much more than the threat of escalation — it is a direct escalation against Russia and a general widening of the conflict to include NATO as a direct combatant.

As such, a no-fly zone imposition serves only Ukraine, which would gain NATO as a co-belligerent without the precursor of a formal alliance. In effect, this political use of airpower would mirror the entangling alliances that brought Europe into World War I.

TL; DR: No-fly zones are useful against Russian aircraft, which rarely fly combat missions over Ukraine; they're useless against Russian artillery shells and rockets, which are killing more Ukrainians than Russian aircraft ever will. Enforcing the no-fly zone will mean shooting at Russians, which may directly lead to World War III.

[MKSheppard]

Threw it into my OCR program, which since it was made in Moscow, Russia; can recognize Belarusian:

Apologies if my OCR fucked up, I'm working on a poor quality image tilted:

МНІСГЭРСТВ,\ ЛБЛРОНЫ РЭСПУБЛІКІ БЕЛАРУСЬ
МКННСТЕРСТВО ОБОРОНЫ РЕСПУБЛНКН БЕЛАРУСЬ
гМннск
Уважасмый Вмктор Гсннадьсвнч!
В нсполнсннс Вашсго прнказа относнтсльно формнровання ударных батальонных групп вынужден доложнть слсдуюшее: в связн с массовым отказом прнннмать участнс в босвых дсйствнях лкчного состава воннскмх частсй, которыс должны былм быть задсйствованы для укомплсктовання вышсуказанных батальонных групп, у Вооруженных снл Бсларусн нет возможностм укомплсктовать нн одну батальонную группу.
Проведсннс разьясннтельных работ с командмрамм воннскмх частей не дало результата. Пмею смелость предположнть, что провсдснме замсны команднров данных воннсквх частсй, которые нс смоглн органнзовать формнрованме групп на местах, нс даст нужного нам рсзультатз.
В внду вышеужазанного прошу Вашсго решсння относнгельно прннятня чосй отставкл.

Начальннк Гснсралыіого нігаба - Лсрвый замсстнтсль Мнннстра обороны Рсспублмкн Бсларусь генсрал-майор /jA-e
Гулевнч В.В.

Google translate gives me:

MNISGERSTV, LBLRONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

gmnsk

Dear Vmktor Gsnnadisvnch!

In the absence of your order regarding the formation of shock battalion groups, I have to report the following: in connection with the massive refusal to take part in the military operations of the military personnel of the military units, which should have been assigned to equip the above battalion groups, the Armed Snl Blarusn does not have the ability to .

Carrying out explanatory work with the commanders of the military units did not give any result. I have the audacity to assume that the military data commanders of the military units, who were not able to organize the formation of teams in the field, will not give us the result we need.

In view of the above, I ask for your decision regarding your resignation.

Chief of the Gsnsralyiogo nigaba - First Deputy of the Ministry of Defense of the Rsspublmkn Blarus General Major

Gulevnch V.V.

[ray245]

Zelensky has to keep banging on the drum for a NFZ. One, it boosts morale at home, showing his people that he's not on the firing line, but he's still fighting for them.

Two, it boost public support around the world to continue supporting Ukraine.

Three, it also helps pressure those friendly governments. Everyone in the EU and NATO knows that a NFZ is a non-starter, so instead, we're gonna dump every portable anti-tank, MANPAD, rifle, armor, bullets, food, fuel, everything they could need into Ukraine as our way of going 'Sorry we can't shoot down the russians for you. Here's a metric shit ton of Stingers and other MANPADs to do it yourself, plus, we'll see about getting all the old COMBLOC NATO members to dump their old Soviet/Russian SAM systems to you so you can use them.'

Also, with the rate the RuAF has been going, a NFZ might not even be needed. They're losing platforms they can't easily replace, adn they're losing pilots that they certainly can't replace quickly.

The West is going to send those weapons with or without the call for NFZ anyway.

If anything, Ukraine needs more planes to fly themselves than a NFZ.

More Ukrainian planes can attack Russian artillery and etc. A NFZ don't do that.

Where are they going to get the airfields and skilled pilots to use those planes, how are those planes going to get there, and who's going to have enough to spare to give them away?

The US is working on giving Polish planes to Ukraine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/u ... ne-2543011

Maybe read the news?

Where are they going to get the airfields and skilled pilots to use those planes, how are those planes going to get there, and who's going to have enough to spare to give them away?

Well here's one idea the only trick bit is getting the volunteer flyers their own planes. I wonder how many mothball old F-15s and F-16s are sitting around. All the Tomcats are gone or in Iran... wonder how many old American allies (SK, maybe SA or Australia) might be willing to "retire" a bunch of planes for pilots to fly for Ukraine. That said little chance of this because this is 2022 not the 1940s and fighters these days can't be shoved in an old shed and maintained by former car mechanics who can make half the parts on site. We could get them the planes and the pilots but not keep them flying for long, maybe three missions tops per plane? Minus enemy action.

The US is trying to get NATO allies with Soviet-era MiG 29s and etc, planes that Ukrainian pilots are trained on to Ukraine. Not F15s.

So no additonal training is needed, and it will help Ukraine replace any lost planes during the conflict.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 29663.html

Vladolph Putler is firing at yet another nuclear facility. Hopefully the third time is not the charm and he doesn’t irradiate a sizable chunk of Europe.

[Jub]

The US is working on giving Polish planes to Ukraine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/u ... ne-2543011

Maybe read the news?

Did you read what you linked? Poland is saying they won't supply planes and the US has nothing to give Poland as replacements if they were to send them. The idea of getting fighters to Ukraine is a pipe dream and many analysts are question the logistics of it even if there were planes enough for such a plan.

[ray245]

The US is working on giving Polish planes to Ukraine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/u ... ne-2543011

Maybe read the news?

Did you read what you linked? Poland is saying they won't supply planes and the US has nothing to give Poland as replacements if they were to send them. The idea of getting fighters to Ukraine is a pipe dream and many analysts are question the logistics of it even if there were planes enough for such a plan.

It's considered enough of a possibility that the US secretary of state is still working on making it happen. The whole point is to try and get Poland to change their mind.

"Can't speak to a timeline, but I can just say we're looking at it very, very actively," he told reporters.

"We are looking actively now at the question of airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able to backfill should Poland decide to supply those planes."

It's far less of a pipe dream than a NFZ. And one that's actually helpful to Ukraine in maintaining control of the skies.

[Jub]

The US is working on giving Polish planes to Ukraine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/u ... ne-2543011

Maybe read the news?

Did you read what you linked? Poland is saying they won't supply planes and the US has nothing to give Poland as replacements if they were to send them. The idea of getting fighters to Ukraine is a pipe dream and many analysts are question the logistics of it even if there were planes enough for such a plan.

It's considered enough of a possibility that the US secretary of state is still working on making it happen. The whole point is to try and get Poland to change their mind.

So, assuming that Poland does agree to get planes over to Ukraine how is that going to work? I haven't seen anybody who's actually given a viable step 2 to that plan with regards to how they get those planes to where they need to go.

[Solauren]

So, assuming that Poland does agree to get planes over to Ukraine how is that going to work? I haven't seen anybody who's actually given a viable step 2 to that plan with regards to how they get those planes to where they need to go.

Poland is beside the Ukraine.
Move them close to the Ukraine, fuel them up, and let the Ukraines come across the border to fly them back.
Or, fly them to the Ukraine, and the pilots either stay to help defend Ukraine, or head back home.

[Broomstick]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 29663.html

Vladolph Putler is firing at yet another nuclear facility. Hopefully the third time is not the charm and he doesn’t irradiate a sizable chunk of Europe.

I am beginning to think the purpose of these is to cause a leak that drifts over Russia, thereby providing "proof" that Ukraine had nuclear weapons, or used them on people, and now the poor, poor Russians are suffering so efforts to destroy the despots much be increased....

[MKSheppard]

You've all heard about the Russians cutting their internet off from the world?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500553480548892679

No later than March 11, all servers and domains must be transferred to the #Russian zone. In addition, detailed data on the network infrastructure of the sites is being collected.

I'm just wondering if this is a precursor to an opening cyberattack on the West? Remember that the Russians view the sanctions on them as an act of war.

Everyone might be best served by disconnecting their main PC with irreplaceable stuff on it from the internet; and using disposable PCs (laptops) or phones to do internet stuff.

[Broomstick]

Back up your data on something air gapped.

[Zaune]

I am beginning to think the purpose of these is to cause a leak that drifts over Russia, thereby providing "proof" that Ukraine had nuclear weapons, or used them on people, and now the poor, poor Russians are suffering so efforts to destroy the despots much be increased...

If Putin didn't mind the army going from merely demoralised to flat-out mutinous when word got about, which it would eventually. Assuming the order was obeyed in the first place, because artillerymen of all frontline troops would know exactly what direction the prevailing winds were blowing and what that would mean for their own country if they scored a bullseye.

Then again, if Putin was still making good cost-benefit calculations then we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.