Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Funny you should mention that:

Russian elites have hatched a plot to 'poison' Vladimir Putin and instil a successor who will restore trade ties with the West, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

According to Ukraine's Chief Directorate of Intelligence at the war-torn country's Ministry of Defence, a 'group of influential' individuals in Russia have begun plotting to remove the dictator from office.

The Ukrainian intelligence service says that FSB director Oleksandr Bortnikov is the chosen man to replace Putin - leading the agency which the successor to the fearsome KGB.

The Ukrainian intelligence service says that FSB director Oleksandr Bortnikov is the chosen man to replace Putin© Provided by Daily Mail The Ukrainian intelligence service says that FSB director Oleksandr Bortnikov is the chosen man to replace Putin
Putin was the director of the Russian intelligence agency before he took the mantle of President and he and Bortnikov both served in the KGB together in Leningrad.

The insiders are reportedly incensed by the invasion of Ukraine's effect on the Russian economy which has been hard-hit by sanctions.

The Chief Directorate of Intelligence said: 'It is known that Bortnikov and some other influential representatives of the Russian elite are considering various options to remove Putin from power.

'In particular, poisoning, sudden disease, or any other 'coincidence' is not excluded.'

Bortnikov has fallen out of favour with Putin after military losses in the first three weeks of the Ukraine war - in which time he has also sacked eight generals.

Russia has lost an estimated 15,000 troops in Ukraine.

Russian elites want to POISON Putin and replace him, Ukraine says.

[LadyTevar]

Funny you should mention that:

Russian elites want to POISON Putin and replace him, Ukraine says.

This might be Ukrainian Propaganda.

Even so, announcing to the World (and Putin) that his buddies want to replace him is a great way to get Putin riled up and not trusting his cadre. Now Bortnikov is in the spotlight, and possibly about to be in a 'Kill or be Killed' situation with Putin.

Win/Win for Ukraine.

[Ralin]

Seems like literal KGB agent Vladimir Putin of all world leaders would be savvy and experienced enough to see through that sort of ploy.

Though he hasn't exactly been living up to his reputation of late, so who knows.

[bilateralrope]

Seems like literal KGB agent Vladimir Putin of all world leaders would be savvy and experienced enough to see through that sort of ploy.

Though he hasn't exactly been living up to his reputation of late, so who knows.

Doesn't that depend on how real the plot is and what Putin finds when he goes looking ?

[Solauren]

I have no doubt there have been people in Russia plotting to remove Putin even before all this started.

[Mr Bean]

I have no doubt there have been people in Russia plotting to remove Putin even before all this started.

There are always ambitious men in every country plotting to take power by various means. It's just in dictatorships there are few if any legitimate routes to real power that don't flow directly from the Dictator... so becoming the Dictator via killing the old one looks attractive. You just need enough people on your side to keep things calm long enough for everyone to accept your rule or enough quite support the power brokers accept your coup.

[Solauren]

I have no doubt there have been people in Russia plotting to remove Putin even before all this started.

There are always ambitious men in every country plotting to take power by various means. It's just in dictatorships there are few if any legitimate routes to real power that don't flow directly from the Dictator... so becoming the Dictator via killing the old one looks attractive. You just need enough people on your side to keep things calm long enough for everyone to accept your rule or enough quite support the power brokers accept your coup.

Even in democracies, you have people that plot to remove the person in power in the same way. (They just usually never get the needed support).
I can imagine in Russia, alot of people who's support could allow a coup to succeed are thinking about backing such a thing now.

After all, Putin has dragged Russia into a war that has exposed that Russia's only real threat is Nukes now, and is costing alot of money to both the Russian government, and to people hit by sanctions.

[Ralin]

After all, Putin has dragged Russia into a war that has exposed that Russia's only real threat is Nukes now,

No it hasn't. Why do people act like one poor showing is proof that the Russian military is weak or useless? They haven't even lost the damned war.

[Jub]

No it hasn't. Why do people act like one poor showing is proof that the Russian military is weak or useless? They haven't even lost the damned war.

Russia should be steamrolling a 3rd rate power like Ukraine even with support being sent in from abroad. This should have looked like the US invading Iraq but even more of a stomp because Russia doesn't have to shift troops and gear nearly as far and into bases in foreign nations prior to the attack. Instead, we're finding out that their vehicles aren't maintained, that nobody has rations, and that the Russian command didn't bother to set up sufficient logistical chains to solve these known issues.

This war has shown that Russian preparedness and logistical efficiency is closer to non-existent than it is to US standards. That should worry them as the US is who they'd need to worry about should they decide to nibble on any of their other western neighbors. They're not even close to a peer power to the nation that is supposedly still their rival.

[Ralin]

Russia should be steamrolling a 3rd rate power like Ukraine even with support being sent in from abroad. This should have looked like the US invading Iraq but even more of a stomp because Russia doesn't have to shift troops and gear nearly as far and into bases in foreign nations prior to the attack. Instead, we're finding out that their vehicles aren't maintained, that nobody has rations, and that the Russian command didn't bother to set up sufficient logistical chains to solve these known issues.

This war has shown that Russian preparedness and logistical efficiency is closer to non-existent than it is to US standards. That should worry them as the US is who they'd need to worry about should they decide to nibble on any of their other western neighbors. They're not even close to a peer power to the nation that is supposedly still their rival.

It shows that the Ukrainian military is stronger than many people assumed and that for a variety of reasons the Russian government fucked up setting up the logistics for the war.

Which is certainly bad, but it's a fixable issue and not proof that the Russian military is generally incompetent or incapable of doing those things right in other conflicts. Doesn't make sense to write them off as a threat in future conflicts based on that.

[Jub]

It shows that the Ukrainian military is stronger than many people assumed and that for a variety of reasons the Russian government fucked up setting up the logistics for the war.

Which is certainly bad, but it's a fixable issue and not proof that the Russian military is generally incompetent or incapable of doing those things right in other conflicts. Doesn't make sense to write them off as a threat in future conflicts based on that.

The issues that are at the root cause of the invasion stalling as it has aren't small things Ralin. It is a massive red flag that division and company-level staff aren't passing basic issues up the chain. Due to this, the people planning operations have no idea that units are significantly under strength due to lacking rations, intact tires, and communications gear. Add in the fact that nobody planned ahead enough to have a proper logistical chain ready to get fuel, food, and munitions into the theater and this is bungling that casts a shadow across all levels of Russia's military. They've lost generals already, could you imagine if that happened to the US? No, you can't because unless WW3 starts the US isn't so stupid as to put them into the line of fire.

This isn't just a minor oopsie or an invasion hitting a snag, it's showing us that Russia's military is a rusty, graft-ridden, waste of Rubbles that can't manage to put optics onto their new AK-12s. They've literally sent people into Ukraine with fucking Mosin-Nagant rifles. This just isn't what a competent military power does. Period.

[Mr Bean]

So there are big lists elsewhere of every little thing the Russian military has fucked up and highlight reels and the like but the big takeaway is that there are some massive red flags that the Russian military is fucked on an organizational level from the top on down. Not that they can't win this war but that the Russian Army of the 1990s could destroy the current Russian army never mind how poorly they would do against the 1980s Soviet forces.

Be it the number of vehicles and tanks lost due to fuel shortage to Russian military command staff using unsecured civilian phones to communicate to the shit show that has been the Russian artillery. It's one of the less talked about parts of the overall campaign is that while Russian air assets have been fairly accurate, the Russian artillery is preforming at 1800th century accuracy standards. And by that I mean we have Russian cruise missiles and heavy artillery that should be accurate within a handful of meters missing by over a hundred meters. Not in the sense that "oh that strike was meant to target X but hit Y civilians on accident" but in the more accurate sense of "that strike was meant to hit X but hit empty field 70 meters away 20 times before they managed to get a shot somewhat close".

At the root of it all we can assume it starts with the military corruption. I could easily see laying as much as forty percent of the Russian military incompetence at the top to bottom corruption of Russian military. What was somewhat kept under control (Or at least within the 10% reason) under the Soviet Union has exploded until who knows how many people hold military position due to bribes or patronage rather than demonstrated skill. How many Russian quartermasters stole from their units to make extra money which was okay because the units were selling their ammunition and spare magazines on the black market anyway. How many tanks which have had the bare minimum of maintenance for years by poorly trained conscripts watched over by somewhat trained NCOs. How many gundecked inspections and how many out and out fitness report fabrications.

[Jub]

So there are big lists elsewhere of every little thing the Russian military has fucked up and highlight reels and the like but the big takeaway is that there are some massive red flags that the Russian military is fucked on an organizational level from the top on down. Not that they can't win this war but that the Russian Army of the 1990s could destroy the current Russian army never mind how poorly they would do against the 1980s Soviet forces.

Be it the number of vehicles and tanks lost due to fuel shortage to Russian military command staff using unsecured civilian phones to communicate to the shit show that has been the Russian artillery. It's one of the less talked about parts of the overall campaign is that while Russian air assets have been fairly accurate, the Russian artillery is preforming at 1800th century accuracy standards. And by that I mean we have Russian cruise missiles and heavy artillery that should be accurate within a handful of meters missing by over a hundred meters. Not in the sense that "oh that strike was meant to target X but hit Y civilians on accident" but in the more accurate sense of "that strike was meant to hit X but hit empty field 70 meters away 20 times before they managed to get a shot somewhat close".

At the root of it all we can assume it starts with the military corruption. I could easily see laying as much as forty percent of the Russian military incompetence at the top to bottom corruption of Russian military. What was somewhat kept under control (Or at least within the 10% reason) under the Soviet Union has exploded until who knows how many people hold military position due to bribes or patronage rather than demonstrated skill. How many Russian quartermasters stole from their units to make extra money which was okay because the units were selling their ammunition and spare magazines on the black market anyway. How many tanks which have had the bare minimum of maintenance for years by poorly trained conscripts watched over by somewhat trained NCOs. How many gundecked inspections and how many out and out fitness report fabrications.

Exactly.

There are no quick fixes to such problems either because the rot runs from the top to the bottom. The top refuses to hear negative reports which incentivize people to write nice reports filled with outright lies and then, because the reports are just fluff anyway, the standards drop because the higher-ups clearly don't care. From there it isn't hard to only keep a small fraction of your gear and troops parade ready while everything else gets the barest spit shine to look functional even if it hasn't actually worked in years. Add in terrible morale among volunteers and conscripts and it's a recipe for disaster.

To even start to fix this you need to start a top to bottom review, but without knowing who's corrupt I'm not even sure where you'd start such a process.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And to think, 8 years ago with the shitshow that was Crimea we were worried about corruption in the Ukrainian military

ITV News sees evidence of recent attack on major food store in town on Kyiv's outskirts.

Fresh fears of a change in Russian tactics have been raised as ITV News sees evidence of a recent attack on a major food store in a town on the eastern outskirts of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

A food distribution warehouse in Brovary has been partially destroyed, with further damaged captured by an ITV News crew down the road.

"If Putin's plan is to starve the city, this might be part of it," Global Security Editor Rohit Kachroo said.

A passer-by showed him a nearby cruise missile, often used by the Russian military, apparently intercepted before it arrived at its intended target.

The elderly man described how he was a first responder during the 1986 Chernobyl disaster- but said he feared the devastation unfolding in Ukraine is far worse.

Russian forces had tried to seize control of the town, but have so far failed in their attempts.

Russian airstrikes have previously hit the the suburbs of Brovary, where pictures have shown doctors and nurses working on people who have been injured and lost limbs.

In a sign of civilian fears of more indiscriminate Russian attacks, a 92-year-old woman was seen moving in between her friends homes to feel safer.

But she remained defiant.

"I am not going anywhere, " she said.

"Where else can I go? Only there to the graveyard."

At a local hospital a student from Texas who volunteered to be on the frontline in Ukraine was spotted phoning home with news her vehicle had been hit by a mine.

"A split second later the whole car lifted up, came down," she said.

"I remember being conscious the whole time. I checked my friends, made sure they were okay."

"I feel like there is still more work to be done. I feel like I can still help people," the student added.

[Solauren]

To fix Russia's military quickly, you'd need an outside agency to do it. Possibly one from outside of Russia. And it would have to be a total review. To the point you are arresting most of Russia's military offices (if not all of them) to prevent them from fleeing justice.

I can't see that happening.

Doing it just internally is going to be slow. You'd basically have to arrest a given unit, completely review it, keep the ones that pass the review, and then have another review group that is totally unconnected to the first one confirm the review. Rinse and repeat.

The result would probably see a massive downsizing of Russia's military, and probably a shitload of executions.

[Lord Revan]

And to think, 8 years ago with the shitshow that was Crimea we were worried about corruption in the Ukrainian military

To be fair corruption in the military seems to be an universal issue in the former soviet block countries, it just seems it's a lot worse in the Russian military then it is in the Ukrainian military.

[Lord Revan]

To fix Russia's military quickly, you'd need an outside agency to do it. Possibly one from outside of Russia. And it would have to be a total review. To the point you are arresting most of Russia's military offices (if not all of them) to prevent them from fleeing justice.

I can't see that happening.

Doing it just internally is going to be slow. You'd basically have to arrest a given unit, completely review it, keep the ones that pass the review, and then have another review group that is totally unconnected to the first one confirm the review. Rinse and repeat.

The result would probably see a massive downsizing of Russia's military, and probably a shitload of executions.

Yeah any quick fix of the Russian military seem it would demand a "tear down and rebuild from scratch" approach and that's something you probably can't do internally as the corruption in the military is more or less a symptom of the general corruption in the power structures of the Russian Federation and honestly rebuilding the military would be pointless unless you fix the corruption issues higher up the food chain and since many of the top politicians in Russia benefit from said corruption they're unwilling to fix it.

[Broomstick]

Bortnikov has fallen out of favour with Putin after military losses in the first three weeks of the Ukraine war - in which time he has also sacked eight generals.

8 generals sacked and.... how many killed by Ukrainians now? 5? 6? I can't keep up.

Not a good time to be a Russian General.

From another message board I frequent:

But still, in matters vegetable, animal, and mineral,
I am the very model of a Russian Major… BANG! (thud)

[Jub]

How is flying in the planes unarmed and shipping in their weapons seperately going to be any less provocative?

It might not be, but I suspect that it will be a term attached to sending planes over if they do get sent. Nobody wants to give Russia an excuse to point fingers and say that a NATO or EU country has crossed the line. Would unarmed jets be under that line? I can't say, but it seems like the world's support for Ukraine is as low-key and deniable as possible.

I could be wrong, but as I've said, I don't see many credible sources who think fighter jets to Ukraine are all that plausible and it's not just an issue of finding somebody willing to send jets their way.

-----

Shep, what are your thoughts on the plausibility of Polish jets ending up being shipped to Ukrainian airbases? You're probably the most tuned into that side of things of anybody here.

You're wrong yet again.

Poland is now giving the Jets.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... us-ukraine

Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities,” Rau said in a statement on his ministry’s website. “Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.”

So about those jets...

[ray245]

It might not be, but I suspect that it will be a term attached to sending planes over if they do get sent. Nobody wants to give Russia an excuse to point fingers and say that a NATO or EU country has crossed the line. Would unarmed jets be under that line? I can't say, but it seems like the world's support for Ukraine is as low-key and deniable as possible.

I could be wrong, but as I've said, I don't see many credible sources who think fighter jets to Ukraine are all that plausible and it's not just an issue of finding somebody willing to send jets their way.

-----

Shep, what are your thoughts on the plausibility of Polish jets ending up being shipped to Ukrainian airbases? You're probably the most tuned into that side of things of anybody here.

You're wrong yet again.

Poland is now giving the Jets.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... us-ukraine

Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities,” Rau said in a statement on his ministry’s website. “Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.”

So about those jets...

It didn't pan out the way people hoped. But it was still a far more realistic proposition ( that got serious attention at high level) than the no-fly-zone.

So hardly the most unrealistic suggestion.

[Solauren]

8 generals sacked and.... how many killed by Ukrainians now? 5? 6? I can't keep up.

From Wikipedia....
4 March, Major general Andrey Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was killed in combat.
5 March, Colonel Vladimir Zhoga, commander of the Sparta Battalion, was killed in Volnovakha.
7 March, Ukrainian officials claimed Major general Vitaly Gerasimov, Chief of Staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was killed in combat near Kharkiv.
7-9 March, lieutenant colonel Alexei Sharshavov, commander of the 171st Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division
11 March, Ukrainian officials claimed Major general Andrei Kolesnikov, commander of the 29th Combined Arms Army, was killed in combat.
15 March, Ukrainian officials claimed Major general Oleg Mityaev, commander of the 150th Rifle Division, was killed in combat by the Azov Battalion.
18 March, Ukrainian officials claimed Lieutenant general Andrei Mordvichev, commander of Russia's 8th Guards Combined Arms Army, was killed in artillery strike on the Chornobaivka airfield.
19-20 March, Russian and Ukrainian social media reported, and the Russian officials later confirmed, that Captain 1st rank Andrey Paliy [ru], a deputy commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, was killed in combat in Mariupol.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie ... R_military
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_R ... of_Ukraine


So that's 13 generals or so dead or fired.
Wikipedia lists about 14 more still active.

If that's accurate, and that's all they had, that's HALF their most senior staff dead.

[Edi]

That doesn't even get to the colonels, majors and lower level officers who lead, because the Russian military does not have a western style NCO system.

They have well and truly screwed the pooch. Even the lower end estimates for their losses and the consequent ratio of non-dead casualties is eye-watering.

Hopefully the Ukrainians kill every last invader who doesn't have the good sense to get out while the getting is good.

[Lord Revan]

What's to me is more frighting is that Putin seems to be wanting to start even more wars, in the news here they said that Kremlin has given a directive for Russian living in Finland to report anything negative said about Russia which seems like Putin seeking a "casus belli" for invading Finland.

Which given how the war is going in the Ukraine doesn't seem all that smart of an idea.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

There's talk of Belarus using their own troops to reinforce the Russians, depending on whether they're better than the Russian ones this may be a blessing or a curse. And the Russians claim they'd use nukes if they faced an existential threat. Quite how that relates to Ukraine though is unclear.

[Lord Revan]

There's talk of Belarus using their own troops to reinforce the Russians, depending on whether they're better than the Russian ones this may be a blessing or a curse. And the Russians claim they'd use nukes if they faced an existential threat. Quite how that relates to Ukraine though is unclear.

Issue with that is that "existential threat" is extremely vague, it could mean anything from "we're being invaded by a force that could beat us" to "we no longer have the same status in the world we used to have".