Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Edi]

According to some reports, the Belarussian military is on the edge of mutiny, so they are likely even less motivated than the Russians.

As far as existential threats, if Putin uses nukes, Russia will cease to exist as a major global power. Retaliatory nuclear response will take care of that, and once the dust settles and Russia will have no capability left to deter China. Which will simply walk over the border and take over everything east of the Yenisei river. The only thing keeping them from doing it is the fact that Russia could nuke the Chinese population centers to oblivion. If they lose that deterrent, Siberia becomes Chinese. They have the resources to exploit it, the population to settle it and if anyone thinks they would not take advantage of a golden opportunity like that, such a person has no place discussing these issues in the first place.

This isn't a simple Russia vs the West issue, there are other dimensions as well.

[Solauren]

Any use of nukes by an aggressive nation, that results in them getting flattened in response, and the rest of the world able to, will see a land rush against the aggressive nation. You'll have neighbors go into 'secure' that now-flatteneed nations assets to 'prevent further attacks'.

Since Russia has 14 land neighbours, and 2 naval neighbours that would happily do that (either to reclaim former territory, gain new ones, or just as a fuck you to Russia), Russia would likely be chewed up and spit out like something soft and fleshy tossed into a woodchipper.

[Broomstick]

That doesn't even get to the colonels, majors and lower level officers who lead, because the Russian military does not have a western style NCO system.

They have well and truly screwed the pooch. Even the lower end estimates for their losses and the consequent ratio of non-dead casualties is eye-watering.

Hopefully the Ukrainians kill every last invader who doesn't have the good sense to get out while the getting is good.

Or who doesn't take the opportunity to surrender, as apparently some have done.

BTW: good to hear from you, Edi. Stay safe over there.

What's to me is more frighting is that Putin seems to be wanting to start even more wars, in the news here they said that Kremlin has given a directive for Russian living in Finland to report anything negative said about Russia which seems like Putin seeking a "casus belli" for invading Finland.

Which given how the war is going in the Ukraine doesn't seem all that smart of an idea.

I hadn't heard about the one from Finland, but so far today I've heard that a Russian TV program was floating idea of a land corridor to Kalingrad (which would, of course, mean a war) with the presenter bragging that they could do it quickly, and another, Russian parliament member Oleg Matveychev, was demanding that the US give back Alaska, which he claimed the US "seized" (No, we bought it at 2¢ an acre, great return on investment that turned out to be). Also he wants back everything that was ever a part of or discovered by Russia or the Soviet Union so that would include Fort Ross in California and all of Antarctica (um... I don't think the US is the only nation claiming a piece of that...?) The Alaska governor's response was "Good luck with that!".

Smart or not, I am beginning to think Putin and his cronies actually want World War Three. Certainly, they are flailing and desperate.

And... Antarctica? When they can't keep their troops from getting frostbite during spring time in Ukraine?!?

[Broomstick]

There's talk of Belarus using their own troops to reinforce the Russians, depending on whether they're better than the Russian ones this may be a blessing or a curse. And the Russians claim they'd use nukes if they faced an existential threat. Quite how that relates to Ukraine though is unclear.

Issue with that is that "existential threat" is extremely vague, it could mean anything from "we're being invaded by a force that could beat us" to "we no longer have the same status in the world we used to have".

My limited understanding is that Putin might think a successfully democratic Ukraine on his border is an existential threat to his version of Russia because the huddled masses might get ideas, like maybe living under Putin isn't heaven. I do believe there is a logic of sorts to what's coming out of Russia but it would be a mistake to think they're starting with the same notions of how best to run a government that we have.

[Broomstick]

According to some reports, the Belarussian military is on the edge of mutiny, so they are likely even less motivated than the Russians.

Apparently there are already some Belarussians who have crossed over the border to fight on Ukraine's side. Don't know if they were regular military or just sympathetic to the cause. Clearly, though, Belarus is not enthused about joining this war.

As far as existential threats, if Putin uses nukes, Russia will cease to exist as a major global power. Retaliatory nuclear response will take care of that, and once the dust settles and Russia will have no capability left to deter China.

That does leave the question as to how much damage will be done to the rest of the world in such an event. Unless Putin is foolish enough to think the US would not respond in kind - perhaps not the wisest notion given that the US has in fact used nukes in the past.

I have no knowledge of what is targeted by which side right now, and given the state of Russia's military so far there is the question of whether or not Putin's nukes have been properly maintained and whether or not they would work, or how many might work and how many might not. The US supposedly has some interceptor capability - exact abilities classified, of course - but no missile defense system is 100% and even then there will be radioactive debris falling back to the ground in some places.

During the Cold War in the area I currently live in there were at least three targets - O'Hare airport, the Chicago Stock Exchange, and the Gary Steel Works. I have to wonder about the Braidwood Nuclear Plant as well. That.... does not bode well for me. I'm downwind of three of those and close enough to the fourth that I'd probably not survive the initial blast/shockwave/collapsing buildings/firestorm so I suppose that might be considered a silver lining...? but for damn sure if the Russians think they're going down and nukes are flying the US will be a target. Along with various other people. Who knows how many functional nukes the Russians have at this point? Or where they're pointed?

I am pretty sure, though, that the US arsenal is in good shape. Aside from an outrageously high military budget, we've had less of our funds siphoned off for super-yachts and London real estate.

If the US sends the missiles over to Russia I am sadly confident that they will work. Russia will cease to exist as a nation.

Not sure if any other nuclear powers would get involved or not. They may decide they have to, just in case they're targets as well. I'm not at all confident such an escalation would remain confined to just Russia and Ukraine, or just Russia and Europe, or just Russia and NATO....

If they lose that deterrent, Siberia becomes Chinese. They have the resources to exploit it, the population to settle it and if anyone thinks they would not take advantage of a golden opportunity like that, such a person has no place discussing these issues in the first place.

In such a world Siberia might be better off under China than as a part of whatever is left of shattered Russia. Which is not to say that would be a wonderful fate, it might even be quite awful for a lot of people, but if Russia starts a nuclear war whatever is left will not be a good place to live.

Absolutely China would take advantage of the opportunity for land and resources. As will anyone else who feels they can take advantage of that opportunity - assuming there's something worth having other than glassed craters and radioactive dust.

If the penalty for starting a nuclear war is seen to be the complete obliteration of the aggressor perhaps that would deter anyone else from doing that shit for a century or two. Which presumes that there would be enough civilization left to matter. We don't really know what the outcome of that would be. Personally, I hope we never do.

This isn't a simple Russia vs the West issue, there are other dimensions as well.

Which is why quite a few people are worried about this escalating into another World War.

[Edi]

That doesn't even get to the colonels, majors and lower level officers who lead, because the Russian military does not have a western style NCO system.

They have well and truly screwed the pooch. Even the lower end estimates for their losses and the consequent ratio of non-dead casualties is eye-watering.

Hopefully the Ukrainians kill every last invader who doesn't have the good sense to get out while the getting is good.

Or who doesn't take the opportunity to surrender, as apparently some have done.

BTW: good to hear from you, Edi. Stay safe over there.

What's to me is more frighting is that Putin seems to be wanting to start even more wars, in the news here they said that Kremlin has given a directive for Russian living in Finland to report anything negative said about Russia which seems like Putin seeking a "casus belli" for invading Finland.

Which given how the war is going in the Ukraine doesn't seem all that smart of an idea.

I hadn't heard about the one from Finland, but so far today I've heard that a Russian TV program was floating idea of a land corridor to Kalingrad (which would, of course, mean a war) with the presenter bragging that they could do it quickly, and another, Russian parliament member Oleg Matveychev, was demanding that the US give back Alaska, which he claimed the US "seized" (No, we bought it at 2¢ an acre, great return on investment that turned out to be). Also he wants back everything that was ever a part of or discovered by Russia or the Soviet Union so that would include Fort Ross in California and all of Antarctica (um... I don't think the US is the only nation claiming a piece of that...?) The Alaska governor's response was "Good luck with that!".

Smart or not, I am beginning to think Putin and his cronies actually want World War Three. Certainly, they are flailing and desperate.

And... Antarctica? When they can't keep their troops from getting frostbite during spring time in Ukraine?!?

HUGS! I've missed you, Broomie! Though that's my own fault, being away so much.

Those are either Russian propaganda efforts, or Russian delusions. Or a combination of both. There are enough pan-Slavist fanatics in Russia to fertilize the fields of both Russia and Ukraine with their bullshit.

Putin made a major miscalculation because he lives in deluded fantasies of what he thinks is rooted in Russian history, but is in fact Soviet propaganda, and Russian propaganda before that. In that narrative, there are three types of Russians (and now the translation from Finnish to English starts breaking down, be warned): Greater / Big Russians (Russia proper), White/Lesser Russianas (Belarus) and Ukrainians, which are some subtype of Lesser Russians. The point there is that the Imperial Russian and Soviet interpretation of history both denies and strips all national identity and agency from Ukrainians, who are their own separate people, and whom Stalin actually tried to kill off by starvation (Holodomor, for anyone with the stomach to look it up).

That twisted reading of history completely negates Ukraine, even as it holds Kiev up as the birthplace of Russian civilization (which it very much is). The Kiovan realm was destroyed in ten short years by the Mongols and never regained its former position, and the center of power shifted to Moscow, which was in territory not suited for Mongol conquest. These are the building blocks where Putin's delusions have their roots.

If Russia goes to war with NATO on the strength of those delusions, they can inflict severe damage on the West with nukes, but they DO NOT have the capability to destroy all of it. On the other hand, the counterattack would leave all major Russian military and population centers smoking ruins and then the territory would be carved up by those in proximity to take advantage of it. Some rump state / country might survive, and be given recognition, but it would be a sad thing indeed.

Russia is a big enough global power, and there are intelligent and highly trained people there whose job it is to think about these things. As long as all of it has been on the level of an intellectual exercise, in order to keep their superiors happy, they may have had to pad the reports and slant them, but I bet enough of them know what's what that if it starts looking like nuclear annihilation time, there will be some VERY abrupt changes in the leadership up top that will seem sudden to only those who don't bother to think on these things.

[LadyTevar]

Those are either Russian propaganda efforts, or Russian delusions. Or a combination of both. There are enough pan-Slavist fanatics in Russia to fertilize the fields of both Russia and Ukraine with their bullshit.

Putin made a major miscalculation because he lives in deluded fantasies of what he thinks is rooted in Russian history, but is in fact Soviet propaganda, and Russian propaganda before that. In that narrative, there are three types of Russians (and now the translation from Finnish to English starts breaking down, be warned): Greater / Big Russians (Russia proper), White/Lesser Russianas (Belarus) and Ukrainians, which are some subtype of Lesser Russians. The point there is that the Imperial Russian and Soviet interpretation of history both denies and strips all national identity and agency from Ukrainians, who are their own separate people, and whom Stalin actually tried to kill off by starvation (Holodomor, for anyone with the stomach to look it up).

That twisted reading of history completely negates Ukraine, even as it holds Kiev up as the birthplace of Russian civilization (which it very much is). The Kiovan realm was destroyed in ten short years by the Mongols and never regained its former position, and the center of power shifted to Moscow, which was in territory not suited for Mongol conquest. These are the building blocks where Putin's delusions have their roots.

What amuses the FUCK out of me, is that Kyiv, Novgorod, and even Moscow itself were all started by VIKINGS. Norse settlers called the RUS started Kyiv as a Trading Colony, because it was a damn near straight shot down to Byzantium (where they were called the Varangians). So all this "Greater and Lesser Russians" is so total bullshit, coming from Scandinavian invaders that you stole the name from for your little Slavic pride.

But still -- until the Mongols flattened it Kyiv *WAS* a powerful little city-state, rich from being a trade center, with its own Prince and Council. After the Mongols, it took decades to recover, as the remaining heads of state retreated to Novgorod, and then founded Moscow in a little area that the Mongols considered not worth invading. All from a Viking named Rurik who thought it was a good idea to take over a Slavic Village and turn it into a Trading Colony.
So much for the 'glorious history' of the Russians.

[Solauren]

I hadn't heard about the one from Finland, but so far today I've heard that a Russian TV program was floating idea of a land corridor to Kalingrad (which would, of course, mean a war) with the presenter bragging that they could do it quickly, and another, Russian parliament member Oleg Matveychev, was demanding that the US give back Alaska, which he claimed the US "seized" (No, we bought it at 2¢ an acre, great return on investment that turned out to be). Also he wants back everything that was ever a part of or discovered by Russia or the Soviet Union so that would include Fort Ross in California and all of Antarctica (um... I don't think the US is the only nation claiming a piece of that...?) The Alaska governor's response was "Good luck with that!".

Smart or not, I am beginning to think Putin and his cronies actually want World War Three. Certainly, they are flailing and desperate.

And... Antarctica? When they can't keep their troops from getting frostbite during spring time in Ukraine?!?

No, I think it's more a case of either -
#1 - They are believing their own propaganda

#2 - Things in Russia were actually economically borderline before all this (and it was largely concealed), and they are throwing the national level of a temper-tantrum in an attempt to get foreign aid, but make it look like 'appeasement/tribute' to their citizens, and reverse their economic problems.

[Batman]

The 'getting foreign aid' thing sure backfired.

[Broomstick]

In that narrative, there are three types of Russians (and now the translation from Finnish to English starts breaking down, be warned): Greater / Big Russians (Russia proper), White/Lesser Russianas (Belarus) and Ukrainians, which are some subtype of Lesser Russians.

In English the Moscow-centered Russia is Greater Russia, White Russia is Belarus (at times it included parts of the modern day Baltic states and maybe some of Poland), and Ukraine is Little Russia (and prior to that a Cossack Hetmanate), so pretty close. Except mostly those terms are considered archaic today, if they're even known to the average American. Now it's Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine.

If Russia goes to war with NATO on the strength of those delusions, they can inflict severe damage on the West with nukes, but they DO NOT have the capability to destroy all of it. On the other hand, the counterattack would leave all major Russian military and population centers smoking ruins and then the territory would be carved up by those in proximity to take advantage of it. Some rump state / country might survive, and be given recognition, but it would be a sad thing indeed.

I fear the US might not be much better off, and might suffer a similar fate. I would still like to live to a healthy hundred years old and die peacefully in my own bed!

I also have concerns about Russia collapsing into a civil war in which Russian factions nuke each other rather than the rest of the world, which would also be a sad occurrence. I try to tell myself that is only a remote possibility.

Russia is a big enough global power, and there are intelligent and highly trained people there whose job it is to think about these things. As long as all of it has been on the level of an intellectual exercise, in order to keep their superiors happy, they may have had to pad the reports and slant them, but I bet enough of them know what's what that if it starts looking like nuclear annihilation time, there will be some VERY abrupt changes in the leadership up top that will seem sudden to only those who don't bother to think on these things.

I hope that, in the event things become much worse, that you are correct about that.

[Lord Revan]

What's to me is more frighting is that Putin seems to be wanting to start even more wars, in the news here they said that Kremlin has given a directive for Russian living in Finland to report anything negative said about Russia which seems like Putin seeking a "casus belli" for invading Finland.

Which given how the war is going in the Ukraine doesn't seem all that smart of an idea.

I hadn't heard about the one from Finland, but so far today I've heard that a Russian TV program was floating idea of a land corridor to Kalingrad (which would, of course, mean a war) with the presenter bragging that they could do it quickly, and another, Russian parliament member Oleg Matveychev, was demanding that the US give back Alaska, which he claimed the US "seized" (No, we bought it at 2¢ an acre, great return on investment that turned out to be). Also he wants back everything that was ever a part of or discovered by Russia or the Soviet Union so that would include Fort Ross in California and all of Antarctica (um... I don't think the US is the only nation claiming a piece of that...?) The Alaska governor's response was "Good luck with that!".

Smart or not, I am beginning to think Putin and his cronies actually want World War Three. Certainly, they are flailing and desperate.

And... Antarctica? When they can't keep their troops from getting frostbite during spring time in Ukraine?!?

While obviously not part of US, the Grand Dutchy of Finland did gain its independence from Russia before transforming into the modern Republic of Finland.

That alone would most likely be enough for those seeking to "reclaim past glories", especially if they're seeking to reclaim Alaska which unlike Finland was given up by the legitimate government of Russia at the time. Since one can argue that Lenin's government didn't have the Authority to grand Finland its independence at the time.

[Solauren]

The 'getting foreign aid' thing sure backfired.

Peace Negotiations after dragging things out for a while.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Boris Johnson warns Vladimir Putin of 'severe consequences' if he uses chemical weapons in Ukraine.

Boris Johnson has warned Vladimir Putin of "severe consequences" if he uses chemical weapons in his attacks on Ukraine.

He said Nato and the UK "will not stand by" while Vladimir Putin "vents his fury on Ukraine" and the alliance has agreed to bolster its support for the fight against Russia.

The prime minister said it "would be catastrophic" for Putin if chemical weapons were used, but he rubbished nuclear threats from Russia as a "distraction".

President Joe Biden said the US "will respond" if Russia uses chemical weapons, when asked if their use could push Nato into military action.

"We would respond if he uses it - the nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use."

He added that the UK and allies would "ramp up lethal aid to Ukraine" by providing weaponry of the "quantity and with the quality" needed by Ukraine to defend against "its bullying neighbour".

The alliance agreed it should activate its chemical and nuclear defence elements, Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said, following an emergency Nato summit.

A joint statement from Nato leaders, released following an emergency summit, said: “Nato allies will also continue to provide assistance [to Ukraine] in such areas as cyber security and protection against threats of a chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear nature.”

Mr Stoltenberg said Nato’s senior military commander had “activated Nato’s chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defence elements and allies are deploying additional chemical, biological and nuclear defences”.

The move has been made amid concerns Russia could engage in chemical and nuclear warfare against Nato.

Asked whether the move was based on credible intelligence, Mr Stoltenberg said: "We are concerned, partly because we see the rhetoric and we see that Russia is trying to create some kind of pretext - accusing Ukraine, the United States, Nato allies - for preparing to use chemical and biological weapons."

Any use of chemical weapons "will totally change the nature of the conflict, it will be a blatant violation of international law and it will have widespread consequences", he added.

It came after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pleaded with Nato leaders to provide just 1% of the alliance's planes and tanks, in order to give Ukraine "100% protection" from Russian invaders.

Mr Zelenskyy told Nato leaders in a video address that Russia was “using its entire arsenal” when attacking Ukraine and his country needs “military assistance without limitations" to defend itself.

"One percent of all your planes, one percent of all your tanks...will give us, just like you, 100% security," the Ukrainian leader said.

He also pleaded with Nato for anti-air and anti-ship weapons, asking: "Is it possible to survive in such a war without this?"

“It feels like we’re in a gray area, between the West and Russia, defending our common values,” Zelenskyy said. “This is the scariest thing during a war - not to have clear answers to requests for help.”

'It breaks my heart,' one month on from Russia's invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls on people to protest against Russia's invasion

Nato has so far resisted providing Ukraine with fighter jets as it wants to avoid the appearance of being involved in the conflict with Russia - a move Putin has said would have consequences.

But a US official said his country was considering providing Ukraine with anti-ship missiles.

"We have started consulting with allies on providing anti-ship missiles to Ukraine," the official said. "There may be some technical challenges with making that happen but that is something that we are consulting with allies and starting to work on."

Prime Minister Johnson, asked whether the use of chemical weapons by Russia would be crossing a red line that forces Nato to act, told reporters in Brussels that "Putin has already crossed the red-line into barbarism".

He went on: "It's now up to Nato to consider together the appalling crisis in Ukraine, the appalling suffering of the people of Ukraine.

"To see what more we can help the people of Ukraine to protect themselves, see what more we can do to tighten the economic vice around the Putin regime."

He said the UK was on Thursday providing 6,000 new defensive missiles, consisting of anti-tank and high explosive weapons, and £25 million in financial backing for Ukraine’s armed forces.

Mr Stoltenberg said the alliance is “determined to continue to impose costs on Russia to bring about the end of this brutal war".

He added that Nato must boost its defenses and “respond to a new security reality in Europe".

After the meeting he said Nato had "agreed that we must and will provide further support to Ukraine.

"We will continue to impose unprecedented costs on Russia and will reinforce allied deterrence and defence."

The alliance formally approved the deployment of new Nato battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

A joint statement was released following the Nato summit, in which the alliance called on China to "abstain from supporting Russia's war effort in any way, and to refrain from any action that helps Russia circumvent sanctions. "

It added: "We are concerned by recent public comments by PRC officials and call on China to cease amplifying the Kremlin's false narratives, in particular on the war and on Nato, and to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict."

[wautd]

That doesn't even get to the colonels, majors and lower level officers who lead, because the Russian military does not have a western style NCO system.

They have well and truly screwed the pooch. Even the lower end estimates for their losses and the consequent ratio of non-dead casualties is eye-watering.

Hopefully the Ukrainians kill every last invader who doesn't have the good sense to get out while the getting is good.

Or who doesn't take the opportunity to surrender, as apparently some have done.

BTW: good to hear from you, Edi. Stay safe over there.

What's to me is more frighting is that Putin seems to be wanting to start even more wars, in the news here they said that Kremlin has given a directive for Russian living in Finland to report anything negative said about Russia which seems like Putin seeking a "casus belli" for invading Finland.

Which given how the war is going in the Ukraine doesn't seem all that smart of an idea.

I hadn't heard about the one from Finland, but so far today I've heard that a Russian TV program was floating idea of a land corridor to Kalingrad (which would, of course, mean a war) with the presenter bragging that they could do it quickly, and another, Russian parliament member Oleg Matveychev, was demanding that the US give back Alaska, which he claimed the US "seized" (No, we bought it at 2¢ an acre, great return on investment that turned out to be). Also he wants back everything that was ever a part of or discovered by Russia or the Soviet Union so that would include Fort Ross in California and all of Antarctica (um... I don't think the US is the only nation claiming a piece of that...?) The Alaska governor's response was "Good luck with that!".

Smart or not, I am beginning to think Putin and his cronies actually want World War Three. Certainly, they are flailing and desperate.

And... Antarctica? When they can't keep their troops from getting frostbite during spring time in Ukraine?!?

HUGS! I've missed you, Broomie! Though that's my own fault, being away so much.

Those are either Russian propaganda efforts, or Russian delusions. Or a combination of both. There are enough pan-Slavist fanatics in Russia to fertilize the fields of both Russia and Ukraine with their bullshit.

Putin made a major miscalculation because he lives in deluded fantasies of what he thinks is rooted in Russian history, but is in fact Soviet propaganda, and Russian propaganda before that. In that narrative, there are three types of Russians (and now the translation from Finnish to English starts breaking down, be warned): Greater / Big Russians (Russia proper), White/Lesser Russianas (Belarus) and Ukrainians, which are some subtype of Lesser Russians. The point there is that the Imperial Russian and Soviet interpretation of history both denies and strips all national identity and agency from Ukrainians, who are their own separate people, and whom Stalin actually tried to kill off by starvation (Holodomor, for anyone with the stomach to look it up).

That twisted reading of history completely negates Ukraine, even as it holds Kiev up as the birthplace of Russian civilization (which it very much is). The Kiovan realm was destroyed in ten short years by the Mongols and never regained its former position, and the center of power shifted to Moscow, which was in territory not suited for Mongol conquest. These are the building blocks where Putin's delusions have their roots.

If Russia goes to war with NATO on the strength of those delusions, they can inflict severe damage on the West with nukes, but they DO NOT have the capability to destroy all of it. On the other hand, the counterattack would leave all major Russian military and population centers smoking ruins and then the territory would be carved up by those in proximity to take advantage of it. Some rump state / country might survive, and be given recognition, but it would be a sad thing indeed.

Russia is a big enough global power, and there are intelligent and highly trained people there whose job it is to think about these things. As long as all of it has been on the level of an intellectual exercise, in order to keep their superiors happy, they may have had to pad the reports and slant them, but I bet enough of them know what's what that if it starts looking like nuclear annihilation time, there will be some VERY abrupt changes in the leadership up top that will seem sudden to only those who don't bother to think on these things.

Maybe also not to underestimate the factor of religion in this conflict. I've read an interesting peace about how the relationships between the orthodox churches of Moscow and Kiyv are pretty tense (originating during the Soviet regime), and that the Russian Patriarch Kirill is sounding like a religious fanatic these days, saying things along the line like calling an Orthodox crusade against Ukraine and the decadent West

[Broomstick]

Yep, the Russia Patriarch is basically the West/NATO/US the Great Satan and saying anyone not under his authority is working for evil.

[Ralin]

On that note, we live in the stupidest fucking timeline.

[Solauren]

Yeah, Putin 'came to the defense' of JK Rowling.
JK Rowling replied by telling him off.

[Crazedwraith]

Ha. JKR probably agrees him about cancel culture, she's just got to deflect to something else to condem him.

[Col. Crackpot]

I am a little concerned about what I’m hearing minimizing the effects of Nuclear WWIII on the west. It would be a disaster that would cripple North America and Europe for generations.

Yes, there are far fewer warheads in the world these days. The Russians have around 1500 actively deployed and a few thousand more in storage. (Down from like 70k in the late 80’s) I have no faith in ancient Russian bombers making it across the Arctic past US and Canadian fighters. Ditto in Europe. Also we would likely pick off a large portion of the Russian boomer fleet before or while it was launching. Yes Aegeis and THAAD are cool and the Russian ICBM’s are probably poorly maintained.

That all said we would likely see hundreds of warheads successfully initiate over North American and Europe over major population centers. Maybe non NATO Allies too. Japan. Australia. Finland. Sweden. Not a world I’d want to live in.

[Broomstick]

1962 saw 178 above ground nuclear detonations in the world so we know that that many won't automatically doom the planet, or even civilization, but those weren't done over population centers, transportation hubs, or industrial production facilities. (I do hear the view from Las Vegas was pretty good, though). So, yay, I expect not only the planet but humanity will survive. Odds being better for anyone who happens to be in the Southern Hemisphere as I expect most of the action will be on the north end of the planet.

Like you, I don't expect Russian planes to make it past the Arctic between the Canadian and US Air Forces who have actually spent their budgets on the military hardware as opposed to super yachts, hookers, and blow. Europe has some greater risk due simply to closer proximity but again I suspect they've actually spent their military budgets on the military.

Don't know if the Russians have actually maintained their ICBM's or not, or how badly or how they will fail if they do.

Aegeis and THAAD are indeed cool but no missile defense system is perfect. Some will get through. Maybe a lot will get through. Who knows?

We might survive WWIII for some definitions of the word "survive", but I expect we're going to lose some cities and we have no way to know in advance which ones those will be. It will be hellish, though. For generations.

[Zaune]

I don't know if this is exactly on-topic, but you might be interested to know that the local Labour Party passed a resolution taking a position on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine last night. One of its clauses called for expanding sanctions "until Putin's regime collapses"... or at least it did until I persuaded the other attendees to amend it to "until Putin's regime withdraws its troops", on the grounds that we should probably not be advocating intentionally destabilising Russia to the point of civil war.

Do you think I was right? I mean, I know living under a hard-right strongman regime must be pretty shit, but I can't imagine trading that for complete lawlessness and civil disorder would be a step up.

[Solauren]

I'd like to avoid a civil war in a nuclear armed state as corrupt as Russia, thank you very much.

Unless you WANT
#1 - nuclear weapons to disappear onto the black market and end up in the hands of a nut job that doesn't feel constrained by international laws.
#2 - One side in the war to decide 'if we're going down, you're going with me' and launching/detonating nuclear weapons (at the other guy, or just in general to get a response back to hit the other guy, ala Skynet)
#3 - Both of the above....

I'd rather see Putin removed from office, the invasion stopped with a complete pull out, and Putin and senior officals turned over to the Ukraine or UN for trial, along with international aid to Ukraine, including money from Russia.

[Zaune]

Same, but I'd settle happily for Putin and his cronies being allowed to gracefully depart into tax exile and promising to never get involved in politics again (on pain of getting the radioactive sushi treatment if they go back on their word) if it meant Russia having elections that mean something for a change.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah to me the best case scenario would probably be that Putin is forced to step down but after that he's treated like any retired president of the Russian Federation (but with a special rule that he cannot re-enter politics either directly or indirectly, though honestly I think just being put into gen pop in any Russian prison is enough of a threat without needing to use summary executions), with there being a regent taking the day to day operations of Russia until such point that a free and fair election can be held to nominate Putin's successor.

With the Regency obviously needing to clean up the hierarchy of the Russian Federation from corruption, since we'd be back to square one or worse if all that changed was the name of the president, not mention it's kind of hard to have fair elections of the people in charge of said elections are corrupt.

EDIT:I'm calling it a regency to imply that it's suppose to not make any changes that aren't needed to secure a democratically elected government.

[ray245]

Yep, the Russia Patriarch is basically the West/NATO/US the Great Satan and saying anyone not under his authority is working for evil.

He hates the idea of Ukraine getting its own patriarch. So there's that.