Brexit and not very united kingdom politics II

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Some small amusement.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 58287.html

Former Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan resigns from parliament after sex case conviction

Resignation sets scene for explosive by-election in key Red Wall seat of Wakefield in West Yorkshire

Andrew Woodcock
Political Editor

Former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan has announced he is standing down as MP for Wakefield following his conviction for a child sex assault offence.

His resignation triggers an explosive by-election in the West Yorkshire seat, which was one of the traditional Labour strongholds in the so-called Red Wall, which fell to Boris Johnson’s Tories in the 2019 general election.

The contest will be a crucial test of Sir Keir Starmer’s ability to win back the Red Wall and of the extent to which the prime minister’s appeal has been tarnished by his police fine over a lockdown-breaching party in 10 Downing Street.

Khan, 48, was thrown out of the Conservative Party after being found guilty at Southwark Crown Court on Monday of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy more than a decade before going into politics.

He has said he is appealing the verdict and that it “would not ordinarily be appropriate to resign” while legal proceedings are ongoing.

But in a statement today, he said it was “intolerable” for his constituents to go for months or years until the legal process concludes “without an MP who can amplify their voice in parliament”.

He said the move would allow him to “focus entirely on clearing my name”.

Khan said that it had been a “shock” to be “characterised as a sexual predator, outcast and worse” over the three days since his conviction.

Describing the offence of which he was found guilty as “touching a leg above clothing with sexual intent”, Khan – who is a Muslim and gay – said that he wanted to apologise to his family and community “for the humiliation this has caused them”.

And he added: “Questions surrounding sexuality in my community are not trivial and learning from the press about my orientation, drinking and past behaviour before I became an MP has not been easy.”

With a Tory majority of 3,358 at the 2019 election, Wakefield is one of the Red Wall constituencies that Starmer must win back if he is to take control in Downing Street, ranking 38th in Labour’s target seat list for the election expected in 2024.

Overturning Khan’s victory requires a swing of 3.73 per cent – roughly a third of the turnaround Labour would need to achieve across the country to win an overall majority in the House of Commons.

Labour since 1932, it was held until the last election by Mary Creagh, a member of Ed Miliband’s shadow cabinet from 2010-15.

A Labour spokesperson said: “The people of Wakefield have been badly let down by the Conservatives.

“Only Labour has a plan to tackle the cost-of-living crisis, and give the people of Wakefield the security, prosperity and respect they deserve.”

Jurors found Khan was guilty after hearing that he forced a teenage boy to drink gin and tonic, dragged him upstairs, pushed him on to a bed and asked him to watch pornography before touching his leg near the genital area at a house in Staffordshire in January 2008.

The victim made a complaint to police days after the election in 2019. The court heard Khan insist that his actions had no sexual intent and that he had been trying to be “kind and helpful” to the boy, who appeared to want to discuss his sexuality.

Judge Mr Justice Baker said he would sentence the disgraced MP at a later date, telling him: “All sentencing options, including immediate custody, are being considered by the court.”

A jail sentence of more than a year would have led to automatic expulsion from parliament, while a shorter prison term would have exposed him to a recall petition.

The fact of the resignation spares me from having to comment on the court case.

Wakefield is one of the Red Wall seats, which polls have been predicting to flip back to Labour for several months now. Factor in the current scandal and the cost of living crisis, and Labour has a better than average chance of winning this one.

[His Divine Shadow]

What kind of person is Starmer? Well here's a run down. Summarized version, he's a c*nt.

https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2022 ... ir-starmer

[madd0c0t0r2]

What kind of person is Starmer? Well here's a run down. Summarized version, he's a c*nt.

https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2022 ... ir-starmer

This, as Eagleton shows, is where he is consistent. From his days as a human rights lawyer, through his time as DPP, then as a shadow cabinet minister, he has been most comfortable when piloting technocratic reform. Uninterested in drawing major battle lines with the Tories, he chooses the most apolitical subjects on which to agitate: sleaze or incompetence.

There's the point that the current Tories are both very sleazy and very incompetent, so it'd be stupid not to go after that.

And the second point that the UK is not a level playing field and if the oligarchs feel threatened by you, they will throw everything at you. It ain't right, but it has to be dealt with Some long standing, very effective labour activists I knew where in despair at Corbyn. Blair was scummy, but got elected and delivered social change that took a decade of austerity to reverse. Starmer hasn't won an election and he's really only got one chance left.

The rest of it we discussed at the time of Brexit.

[His Divine Shadow]

Those obstacles where not insurmountable as this article shows, Labour made huuge gains despite hostile oligarchs and a biased media. What we can see in retrospect is that internal labour sabotage, particularly from figures like Starmer, is what lead to electoral defeat in 2019.

Another blair is the last thing anyone wants, he delivered a lot more negative change than positive so that's a complete non-starter. Starmer won't win and he don't need or want to win an election, being in a comfy opposition suits him and right labour just fine. It's all about keeping the grift going for the individual MPs, all they need is to get elected.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

If that's his plan, then he's a fool.

Even if he could somehow win all or most of his MPs around to that, he doesn't have that kind of support among the members; certainly not the kind of personal support Corbyn had. People are putting up with Starmer because of the Biden factor; Bojo and the Tories have to go, and for a lot of British voters, Starmer is the only realistic option to do so. If he fails, and the Tories somehow return a majority - even a shrunken one - then he's gone; and with him Blairism and quite likely the Labour Party itself.

But the polls are suggesting a hung parliament; with Labour as the biggest party. The Guardian just today did an analysis based on the council election results, and predicted a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party by less than ten votes; so either of the two could be the biggest. The Tories are at a disadvantage, is few if any political parties will actually want to work with them. Labour would need support from the SNP and Lib-Dems, the two kingmakers, to stay in power. Considering what the SNP will likely demand in return, the safer option will be the Lib-Dems, who will demand voting reform; which a majority of Labour members also want. It's not much to hope for, but it's something.

Now for the elections. Results are still coming in, but Labour seems to have made modest gains across the board; including some London councils they were hyping about. The Tories have suffered a substantial net loss across the board; and failed to take Sunderland, which they were hyping about. Another embarrassment for Bojo.

In Northern Ireland, the results are still coming in; but the predicted outcome is Sinn Fein first, then DUP, then Alliance. There may be trouble ahead.

[His Divine Shadow]

Worst case Keir goes onto some other job, or retains his MP status while stepping down as leader, best case scenario they manage to put the blame on long corbyn.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

AFAIK he keeps his MP seat if he resigns as leader; unless a crime or rule-breaking is involved.

In the meantime, a development.

Keir Starmer pledges to resign as Labour leader if fined for Covid breach

Deputy leader Angela Rayner also says she will step down if fined after Durham police start new investigation into lockdown beer and takeaway event

Jessica Elgot and Peter Walker
Mon 9 May 2022 17.03 BST

Keir Starmer has pledged to resign as Labour leader if he is fined for breaching Covid rules by taking part in a gathering in Durham last year in which he and other party activists ate takeaway food and drank beer on a campaigning trip.

His deputy, Angela Rayner, who also attended the event, said she would also resign if she was found to have broken the rules by Durham police, who last week started a new investigation into the event, which occurred on 30 April 2021.

Starmer said he was determined to prove he had “different principles to the prime minister”, who has already been issued with a fixed-penalty notice for breaching lockdown rules in Downing Street.

The Labour leader said he was determined to prove no rules were broken. “The idea that I would casually break the rules is wrong. I don’t think those who are accusing me of it believe it themselves … They are trying to say all politicians are the same.”

In a statement at Labour HQ, he said: “If the police decide to issue me with a FPN, I would of course do the right thing and step down … The British public deserve politicians who think the rules apply to them.”

After hours of agonising with key aides, Starmer said he intended to draw a distinction with Boris Johnson’s approach. “I stand for honour and integrity, and the belief that politics is a force for good, and we shouldn’t all be dragged down by this cynical belief that all politicians are the same. And I am here to make it clear that I am not the same,” he said. “We are not all the same. I am different.”

Starmer said it had been entirely his decision, amid reports he had come under pressure to make the declaration. “This is my decision about what is the right thing to do in these circumstances,” he said. “This is about me. It’s about what I believe in in politics. It’s about integrity, and I believe in integrity, and integrity requires me to take the course of action I have set out if, in the event, I get a fixed penalty notice.” .

Starmer had called on both Johnson and Rishi Sunak to step down after the prime minister and chancellor were among those fined for being at a lockdown-breaching birthday celebration for Johnson in Downing Street in June 2020.

Rayner put out her own statement on Monday afternoon confirming she would also resign if the rules were found to have been broken. “I’ve always been clear that I was at the event in Durham working in my capacity as deputy leader and that no rules were broken. Eating during a long day’s work was not against the rules,” she said.

“We have a prime minister who has been found to have broken the rules, lied about it and then been fined. If I were issued with a fine, I would do the decent thing and step down.”

Earlier on Monday Starmer pulled out of a speech at the Institute for Government as he wrestled with how to respond to the renewed pressure on him over the conduct at the gathering in Durham of Labour aides, some of whom were reported to have been drunk.

The pressure from the scandal has caused some despair among Labour MPs for preventing the party from capitalising on local election results and key airtime ahead of the Queen’s speech on Tuesday.

“We’ve lost hugely valuable time to make our case for what we would be doing in government by cancelling this speech – all because Keir is yet again unable to be bold,” said one MP who counselled in favour of Starmer saying he would be prepared to resign.

Mary Foy, the Labour MP for the City of Durham, in whose constituency office the lockdown meal took place, denied the reports on Monday that some staff had been drunk. “These allegations about my staff are untrue,” she said in a statement.

Starmer has a loophole where he could potentially be criticised by Durham police but not fined – an approach they took after an inquiry into alleged lockdown breaches by Dominic Cummings, who was then the prime minister’s senior aide.

Answering questions from the media, Starmer indicated that he would not necessarily step down if police did not fine him, but said the event could have breached rules.

“The penalty for a Covid breach is a fixed-penalty notice,” he said when asked about that situation. “That’s a matter of law. And I’ve set out what the position is in relation to that.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... vid-breach

This was probably the smartest move Starmer could make. If he's let off, then it probably won't make much difference. If he is fined, and resigns as promised, then he walks away with a measure of honour; and makes the Tories look all the worse in comparison. If he tries to brazen it out Bojo-style, the party will sling him out to limit the damage.

In the latter two scenarios, it's really just a case of who replaces him.

[Zaune]

Win-win, apart from the fact the redtops will bend over backwards to use it against us while making excuses for the Tories.

Oh well, maybe we'll pick someone with a bit more commitment to the idea that Labour is meant to be a social-democratic party.

[His Divine Shadow]

Redtops?

[Eternal_Freedom]

Tabloid papers such as the Sun or the Daily Mail that have their name in white font on a big red box at the top of the front page.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Red-tops, tabloids aimed towards the lower-middle and working classes, generally focusing on sports and sensationalism. So named because most newspaper companies that produce newspapers in this format feature bright red logos on the front cover to catch the attention of potential buyers.

The DUP leader has told the Secretary of State Brandon Lewis that his party will not nominate ministers to the Executive without "decisive action" on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Following the election last week, Sinn Fein is entitled to nominate a first minister. However, with the DUP refusing to nominate a deputy first minister, Sinn Fein can't take the position.

'Shine of new Stormont could start to rub off by end of the week'
The DUP have come under increasing pressure to re-enter a government. Foyle MLA Gary Middleton has said the party will nominate ministers if issues around the protocol are resolved.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson reiterated that stance on Monday.

Speaking after a meeting with Brandon Lewis in Belfast, he said: "We have had a meeting this morning with the Secretary of State and we have made our position clear to him.

Secretary of State visits Northern Ireland to meet Stormont parties
"It is the position we have held before the election, throughout the election campaign and will continue to hold, and that is until we get decisive action taken by the UK Government on the protocol we will not be nominating ministers to the Executive.

"We want to see stable political institutions, we want to be part of the Executive, we want to play our part and fulfil the mandate we were given by the people of Northern Ireland.

"We are also clear given the damage and harmful impact the protocol continues
to have on Northern Ireland, driving up the cost of living, harming our economy, impeding the ability of businesses to trade with our biggest market and fundamentally undermining political stability, undermining the principle of consensus politics.

"We need this to be resolved.

"When we re-entered the Executive back at the beginning of 2020 we did so on the basis of a clear commitment by the UK Government under the New Decade, New Approach agreement to address and protect our ability to trade with the rest of the United Kingdom."

UK and EU to hold crunch talks on Northern Ireland as deal hangs in the balance

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will hold crunch talks with the vice president of the European Commission in the coming hours as ministers consider whether to override parts of the post-Brexit deal on Northern Ireland.

Attorney General Suella Braverman is said to have approved the scrapping of swathes of the agreement, giving Boris Johnson legal cover to make the move, despite warnings from Joe Biden’s White House and European leaders not to single-handedly meddle with the terms.

On Wednesday, the Prime Minister said the Good Friday Agreement was more important than the Northern Ireland Protocol as he dismissed suggestions of any possible escalatory response from the European Union as “crazy”.

He said there was no need for “drama” as he doubled down on hints he could override elements of the deal.

Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To know...


Ms Truss is expected to tell EC vice president Maros Sefcovic in a call on Thursday morning that the dispute over Northern Ireland cannot drag on.

She had warned she would “not shy away” from taking action as she accused the EU of proposing solutions that would “take us backwards”.

According to The Times, Ms Braverman had advised that legislation to override the protocol would be legally sound because of the “disproportionate and unreasonable” way it has been implemented by the EU.

She has submitted evidence accusing the EU of undermining the Good Friday Agreement by creating a trade barrier in the Irish Sea, and warned of “societal unrest” in Northern Ireland, the newspaper said.

There is said to be a rift in the Cabinet over the move, with Ms Truss, Ms Braverman and Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg reportedly in favour, while Chancellor Rishi Sunak is concerned about the impact on the economy.

There have been suggestions that unilateral action by the UK could spark a trade war against the backdrop of the invasion of Ukraine.

But Mr Johnson told BBC News on Wednesday: “Let’s face it, we’re talking about really, in the scheme of things, a very, very small part of the whole European economy, and I think 0.4% of the value of the whole of the EU economy in Northern Ireland.

“It is crazy. I didn’t think there’s any need for drama. This is something that just needs to be fixed.”

Speaking to ITV’s Peston programme, Mr Rees-Mogg said the UK would not involve itself in any trade war with the EU.

“Tit-for-tat retaliation of that kind is the economics of the school ground and it would damage British consumers at a time of rising (prices),” he said.

Northern Ireland minister Conor Burns said on Wednesday evening that the UK government would have to take unilateral action over the protocol if it could not resolve issues with the EU.

Speaking to LBC’s Tonight With Andrew Marr programme, he said: “If the EU are saying to us that, and they’re not, I don’t think, yet at the position of saying there’s nothing more to talk about, then we will have to take actions to prioritise stability in Northern Ireland, powersharing in Northern Ireland, to protect the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement, and that will mean intervention unilaterally, yes.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said: “No-one should unilaterally cancel, break or in any way attack the settlement.”

The White House stressed the need for talks to continue to resolve the issues, with a spokesman saying: “The best path forward is a pragmatic one that requires courage, co-operation and leadership.

“We urge the parties to continue engaging in dialogue to resolve differences and bring negotiations to a successful conclusion.”

Democratic Unionist Party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson reiterated his call for the government to take action.

He told Sky News show The Take With Sophy Ridge: “The protocol is harming Northern Ireland, it’s harming our economy, it is undermining political stability here, so I think in those circumstances, and in order to safeguard the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement and political institutions, the UK Government is well within its rights to act in these circumstances.”

Cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted on Wednesday that Mr Sefcovic and the Foreign Secretary had a “good relationship”, adding: “They will try to make progress tomorrow.”

He told BBC Breakfast: “I know that both of them are fully committed to making sure we resolve some very difficult issues that have arisen.

“You would expect a UK government, when it is thinking about the security of the entire United Kingdom, to say that there is no option that is off the table, and that is absolutely right.”

Officials working for Ms Truss are drawing up draft legislation to unilaterally remove the need for checks on all goods being sent from Britain for use in Northern Ireland.

The PA news agency was told that Ms Truss is poised to take further action in coming weeks if negotiations with the EU continue to stall.

The proposed law would allow businesses in Northern Ireland to disregard EU rules and regulations and remove the power of the European Court of Justice to rule on issues relating to the region.

Crucially, it would in parts override the protocol agreed by Mr Johnson in 2019 and mean the UK had breached its obligations under the Brexit agreement.

But it has been argued that the protocol will not be completely overridden, with measures being considered to ease the issues on the ground in Northern Ireland.

What do you know, they still haven't solved the icing Irish Border Problem.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Outcome thus far predictable.

UK isolated over Northern Ireland protocol as US-EU alliance rules out renegotiation

Joint US-EU statement reads ‘We agree that renegotiating the protocol is not an option’


Rob Merrick
Deputy Political Editor

The UK’s isolation over its plans to tear up the Northern Ireland protocol has been underlined by a new US-EU alliance ruling out a renegotiation.

A delegation of US politicians, led by a close ally of Joe Biden, agreed a joint statement with members of the European parliament following a meeting in Paris.

It calls on Boris Johnson to abandon planned legislation to override the international agreement, arguing that the protocol “protects the Good Friday Agreement in all its parts”.

In a press release following the interparliamentary meeting, congressman Brendan Boyle announced that a statement had been agreed upon, part of which reads: “We agree that renegotiating the protocol is not an option.”

This latest development comes just hours after Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, resisted pressure to back down after hosting the US delegation at her country retreat of Chevening on Saturday.

In stark contrast, she is understood to have insisted that the UK is “defending the Good Friday Agreement” – not endangering it – and warned that she would not let the “situation drag on”.

The crisis threatens to provoke a hugely damaging trade war if the EU carries out its threat to retaliate for what it considers to be a breach of the deal the prime minister signed and hailed as “fantastic” in 2019.

Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, has also warned that rewriting the protocol unilaterally will kill any lingering hopes the UK has of a free trade deal with the United States.

The UK argues that the legislation is needed to remove trade border checks in the Irish Sea, and to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to end its efforts to block the formation of a new power-sharing executive at Stormont.

However, it goes much further than customs controls, as it includes measures that target the role of the European Court of Justice in overseeing disputes, as well as aiming to restore the UK’s prerogative to decide VAT rates.

The EU insists it has put forward proposals to ease the burden of checks, and points to the UK’s refusal to sign up to common veterinary rules, which would reduce the need for much of the bureaucracy.

Last week, the prime minister admitted he had signed up to the trade barriers created by the Northern Ireland protocol while hoping that the EU would not “apply” them.

The proposed legislation has not yet been published, but is expected to be released within weeks – and could be voted through the Commons as early as next month.

The US delegation is led by Richard Neal, a senior member of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives, who called the talks with Ms Truss “frank”.

He tweeted: “I urge good faith negotiations with the EU to find durable solutions for post-Brexit trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.”

Ms Truss posted: “We discussed our cast-iron commitment to the Belfast [Good Friday] Agreement, the importance of free trade and our condemnation of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 84695.html#

Pretty much as I expected. The US and EU have united behind the Ireland - or at least behind the Good Friday Agreement - and told the UK to stop screwing around.

If I understand rightly, the Stormont assembly has four six-week windows to select an Executive; the process that the DUP is currently blocking by refusing to sit. That means that this process could drag on for anything up to six more months. If they still can't form an Executive, that means a new election; in this case by the end of the year or sometime early next year.

I don't know what the UK government hopes to gain by this. It could be nothing more than an attempt by Bojo to stir up support (to little apparent effect), or a power play by Liz Truss.

I can see only two ways out of this. One is a fresh election in which Alliance wins the 2nd place, the other is that the UK and Ireland agree to alter the GFA and remove power-sharing. I don't think the DUP can formally block the latter, but I don't see them peacefully accepting it either.

This could drag on a while.

[Crazedwraith]

Sue Gray report finally out

A senior civil servant's highly anticipated report on lockdown gatherings held in and around Downing Street has been published in full.

Sue Gray investigated 16 events among which the police found multiple breaches of Covid rules during the pandemic.

Her report criticises the culture and leadership in Downing Street.

It includes photos of gatherings and the names of some of those who attended.

The bullet point and pictures are at the link.

What will happen? Bugger all I expect, BoJo's already ruled out resigning but we'll see what his MPs think I suppose.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

The situation escalates.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rship-vote

Johnson’s lurch to the right adds to momentum for leadership vote
Several Tory MPs believe the 54-letter threshold has been reached and that a challenge to PM could be mounted as soon as next week
Boris Johnson

Conservative whips spent the day shoring up support for the embattled prime minister.

Rowena Mason, Heather Stewart, Helen Pidd and Josh Halliday
Mon 30 May 2022 19.37 BST

Boris Johnson’s lurch to the right after Partygate is fuelling even more anger among rebel Tory MPs, with momentum now building for a leadership challenge next week.

Conservative whips spent the first day of recess anxiously phoning round the parliamentary party to shore up support for the prime minister, as four more MPs called on him to resign, including Jeremy Wright, the former attorney general.

Several Tory MPs told the Guardian they believed the threshold of 54 letters withdrawing support for Johnson was close to being crossed – or may have been already. This would trigger a secret ballot on whether they still have confidence in the prime minister.

It is understood that Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, will have to use his own judgment about whether to announce the milestone being passed straight away if it occurs while parliament is off this week, or wait until Monday, when the House of Commons returns after the Queen’s jubilee celebrations.

One backbench critic of the PM said MPs from the 2019 intake were “gathering their courage” to put in letters before next Monday, but were worrying about repercussions if No 10 were to identify them after an unsuccessful coup. They said the opposition to Johnson was increasingly coordinated and determined to trigger a vote, with almost 30 MPs having publicly declared their opposition so far.

In his statement withdrawing support for the prime minister, Wright said Johnson had done “real and lasting damage” to the institution of government, and while he could not be sure that the prime minister had misled parliament, Johnson had been at best “negligent” in how he had approached the issue.

Elliot Colburn, a Tory MP with a small majority against the Lib Dems, said he had put in a letter “some time ago”, while Nickie Aiken, the Cities of London and Westminster MP whose council turned Labour this month, called on Johnson to bring an end to the situation by submitting a no-confidence letter in himself. Tory MP Andrew Bridgen also told constituents he had resubmitted his letter.

The dismay over Johnson’s premiership is worsening among Tories in so-called “Blue Wall” seats at risk of losing them to the Lib Dems, and “Red Wall” marginals where they have narrow majorities over Labour.

With Johnson’s future in the balance, No 10 has begun launching a number of rightwing, nationalistic policies in recent weeks. These include the return of imperial measures, plans to override the Northern Ireland protocol, a hint about expanding grammar schools, a review of fracking, and repeated promises to tear up more EU regulation.

A cabinet minister told the Guardian that Johnson appeared to be trying to stop the right of the party turning against him in the event of a leadership challenge, citing policies such as the review of fracking – which is electorally unpopular but appeals to a minority in parliament.

But Tory pollsters and some centrist MPs warned that this “core vote” direction was the wrong route to go down with public trust in Johnson so low among swing voters. Tobias Ellwood, a Tory former minister and chair of the defence committee, warned: “We will lose the next election on the current trajectory as reflected in recent elections.

“There is not only just a concern on the conduct of behaviour in No 10, because that has breached the trust with the British people, it is now concerns about No 10 thinking what our policies are.”

On the weights and measures policy, he told Sky News: “There will be some people in our party which will like this nostalgic policy in the hope that it’s enough to win the next election. But this is not the case. This is not one-nation Conservative thinking that is required to appeal beyond our base.”

One Tory cabinet source said the imperial measures policy was “absolutely bananas”, while another cabinet source said they had “no idea which muppet had come up with that idea”, as “this is not what the government’s overall strategy is about”.

Another Conservative MP said he represented a seat in the “heart of middle England” and about half of the core Conservative voters there had lost faith in the prime minister.

Some local government leaders also expressed a lack of confidence in Johnson. Rishi Sunak’s local council leader, Carl Les, the Conservative leader of North Yorkshire county council, said he thought it was time for a leadership election, blaming Johnson for heavy losses in the local elections.

“I am very disappointed that the strong majority we had in North Yorkshire has diminished down to a working majority, but only just, and a lot of the comment we were getting on the doorstep was about the impact of Partygate,” said Les.

The warnings from MPs and councillors were echoed by pollsters and political strategists, including former No 10 advisers James Johnson and Will Tanner. Both said Johnson was on course to lose the election by swinging to the right instead of focusing on delivering goals on schools, hospitals, housing and the cost of living.

Tanner, a former No 10 aide and the director of Conservative thinktank Onward, said: “My view is that while it’s understandable that the prime minister and Downing Street would want to demonstrate their commitment to rightwing policy issues, to satisfy some of his backbenchers at a moment where clearly the prime minister is worried about his future, those issues are not going to win the Conservative party the next election.”

He said he had “never sat in a focus group or conducted a poll where issues like imperial weights and measures or Channel 4 privatisation has come up repeatedly” from the voters Johnson is seeking to court.

He added: “It is NHS, immigration, crime, wages, good jobs in my town. Those are the fundamentals that the Conservative party needs to be focusing on, not these quite small and niche issues, which only matter to a few people.”

James Johnson, a pollster at JL Partners, who worked for Theresa May,
said: “Some of these things that might have raised a smile in the past will actually invite ridicule, the pounds and ounces thing being a good example of that. We’re approaching the situation with Johnson similar to one we faced with Corbyn, where the individual policies might be popular, but the brand attached to them is toxic.”

In short, Bojo is lashing out in a panic as his party slowly turns on him. What adds drama is that the 1922 Committee (basically the Tory MPs group) is under no particular obligation to keep Bojo informed of the situation; at least not while Parliament is in recess. This means that nervous MPs might be slipping their letters in unnoticed, and if Brady chooses not to reveal it, Bojo won't know what's going on, or even who sent the letters, until it's too late.

A further complication is that Bojo might retaliate by calling a general election; his way of saying if I'm going down, I'm taking you all with me. It raises the interesting question as to whether he can do that while a No-Confidence vote is underway, or whether he can get the election process started before the vote is over.

[Darth Nostril]

Getting booed by a load of flagshagging royalists outside St Paul's won't have done Boozo much good.
With Middle England publicly turning against him & an approval rating of -15, how much longer until Tory MPs grow a spine and get rid of the mendacious, corrupt traitor?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The elephant in the room, who is going to replace him?

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Getting booed by a load of flagshagging royalists outside St Paul's won't have done Boozo much good.
With Middle England publicly turning against him & an approval rating of -15, how much longer until Tory MPs grow a spine and get rid of the mendacious, corrupt traitor?

That little display has attracted a lot of media attention, and seems to have shifted the media mood. Bojo being ousted is now being taken seriously.

As for the no-confidence vote, it could in theory happen at any time. There does seem to be a loose anti-Bojo faction, though their numbers and will to succeed remain unclear. The big question seems to be whether to hold the vote straight away, or after the two by-elections coming up on 23rd June. The Tories will almost certainly lose Wakefield, and could easily lose Tiverton and Honiton too. The latter is a safe Tory seat, and challenged by the Lib-Dems.

That said, surviving the vote will not necessarily save Bojo. Theresa May won her vote, but gave up six months later. Bojo probably won't give up quite so easily, but if the party decides it wants him one, they can still make life impossible for him until he does.

The elephant in the room, who is going to replace him?

Indeed. That's what the media commentators keep coming back to. The current frontrunners are Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt, of which I suspect Truss has the better chance. With the Tory membership at least, impersonating Margaret Thatcher is unlikely to go down badly.

[Crazedwraith]

Tory MPs to vote on Boris Johnson's leadership later

Conservative MPs will hold a confidence vote in Boris Johnson's leadership later, amid a backlash to the Partygate scandal.

The backbench committee organising such votes confirmed 15% of Tory MPs had called on him to go, triggering a ballot.

Its chairman Sir Graham Brady said it would happen between 18.00 and 20.00 BST, with a result shortly afterwards.

At least 180 Tory MPs need to vote against Mr Johnson to remove him as PM.

Under Tory party rules, if he survives the vote he will be protected from another no-confidence ballot for a year.

Pressure on Mr Johnson has been mounting since a report by Sue Gray last month highlighted Covid-rule breaking in Downing Street.

There has also been unhappiness within the party over tax rises and the government's response to rising living costs.

Earlier, former minister Jesse Norman became the latest Tory MP to confirm he had submitted a no-confidence letter in Mr Johnson.

In his letter, the MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire said Mr Johnson had presided over "a culture of casual law-breaking" in No 10.

A No 10 spokeswoman said Monday evening's vote would be a chance to "end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on".

"The PM welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs, and will remind them that when they're united and focused on the issues that matter to voters there is no more formidable political force, the spokeswoman added.

Well it's happened . I can't help but feel the end result of this will be Boris is untouchable and entirely unrestrained for a year but okay.

[Mr Bean]

Well it's happened . I can't help but feel the end result of this will be Boris is untouchable and entirely unrestrained for a year but okay.

There is some argument that Boris allies are trying a gamble to immunise him before the really bad stuff comes out in a week or two what that stuff is.... could be anything but if that were the case it would be a smart political play.

Or it's grandstanding, or it is in fact yes in fact 54 of his party MPs just don't like him. I could believe all three.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

He's by no means safe if he wins. May won hers, and still got forced out six months later. They even threatened to change the rules so as to get rid of the 1-year immunity.

Assuming he does win, what matters is by how much. If he only wins narrowly, then he's still got a large hostile faction to contend with; one that will likely only grow as things get worse.

As a minor point, the Tories have 359 seats in Parliament, giving them a majority of 34; rising to 38 if the Speaker and 7x Sinn Fein seats are taken into account.If 38 or more MPs go against him, then he can't throw them out without losing his own majority.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Link.
Would that trigger a general election? The only options to form a government otherwise is via coalition. The Lib Dems aren't the kingmakers they were a decade ago with only 13 seats, a big enough rebellion and the only party that could keep the Tories in power is the SNP. And the SNP would only do that on the condition of there being a second Scottish Independence referendum!

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, parliaments are dissolved either by the Queen (at the request of the PM) or when the five years run out; which in this case is 17th December 2024. When parliament is dissolved, a GE happens automatically.

So as far as I can figure out, Bojo losing his majority would not trigger a GE, nor would him losing the confidence vote. That said, he would stay on as PM until the new leader takes over; so he could still call a GE out of sheer spite and desperation.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 95238.html

Boris Johnson wins no-confidence ballot but 148 Tory MPs vote against him

Devastating blow to prime minister’s authority – with tally of rebels far higher than expected

Boris Johnson has survived an attempt by Conservative MPs to remove him from No 10, but more than one third of his party voted against him.

The prime minister won the no-confidence vote – triggered when 54 of his MPs demanded the contest – but the margin of 211 votes to 148 is unlikely to end questions about his leadership.

One senior Tory warned of “a guerrilla war” in his party through to the next general election, with further attempts to topple Mr Johnson following the Partygate scandal.

Theresa May won a no-confidence vote in December 2018 – but was forced to resign just five months later as the blow of 117 MPs turning against her sapped her authority.

Mr Johnson is braced for losing two crucial by-elections later this month and faces a Commons inquiry into whether he lied to parliament over the No 10 parties.

The result was revealed after all 359 Conservative MPs trooped into a Westminster committee room to take part in the secret ballot – their mobile phones confiscated to avoid photos emerging.

Cabinet ministers had rallied around, but some Scottish Tories deserted the prime minister – while Mrs May cast her vote, almost certainly against Mr Johnson, in a glittery blue ballgown.

Bojo has survived...for now.

[Crazedwraith]

Boris Johnson wins a confidence vote by Tory MPs 211 to 148.

It means he will stay in his job as prime minister.

The result was announced by chairman of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady.

Fuck.

[Iroscato]

Boris Johnson wins a confidence vote by Tory MPs 211 to 148.

It means he will stay in his job as prime minister.

The result was announced by chairman of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady.

Fuck.

Best result I could've hoped for. Now he gets to spend at least a few more months, probably a couple of years being the shambles that he is and corroding the Tories further from within. 40% of his own party doesn't trust him to lead anymore, yet on he will stagger, bliffing and fimbling and galumphing along until the next general election. All Labour has to do is not catastrophically implode again and they'll crush him.

Then we see how much they'll fuck things up in their own way.