Monkeypox outbreak in Europe/US/Nigeria

[PainRack]

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON381



So.... There was a case of monkeypox in a UK traveller. Contact and case tracing is being done but



https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/05/18/927043767/rare-monkeypox-outbreak-in-u-k-and-europe-what-is-it-and-should-we-worry

It's turning out to be a rapidly expanding cluster, hitting Portugal, Spain and a recent confirmed case in Ohio.



And despite Covid contact tracing measures, we haven't been able to utilize what we learned then to isolate and shut it down..

But in England, 7 of the 8 cases don't involve recent travel to Africa, suggesting the patients involved in those cases caught the virus in England. On top of that, those individuals haven't had contact with the one patient known to have traveled to Nigeria, the UKHSA reported Tuesday. Together, this data suggests the virus is spreading in the community undetected.

So... Heads up, if you experience cold symptoms then notice blisters, please isolate and seek medical attention.

[PainRack]

Errr.. I not sure why I confused Ohio with massachusetts . His background history is he travelled to Canada where there's currently a cluster being investigated

[Broomstick]

Ah, so there is a cluster in Canada? Last I heard on the US case they weren't aware of contact between the traveler and someone with a case, but if they've found such a link that makes a bit more sense.

Not at a point to panic - a few years ago the US had an outbreak centered on a pet store that had imported an exotic pet animal that was infectious. Outbreaks are containable. Let's hope this one is properly addressed.

There is not a specific vaccine for monkeypox, but the old smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective from what I've read (they are related viruses). Monkeypox is not as lethal a disease as some other poxes, but no fun to get either. I'm wondering if some of the current spread is from a variation that induces a mild illness in many/most people that allows it to pass with little attention.

[PainRack]

Ah, so there is a cluster in Canada? Last I heard on the US case they weren't aware of contact between the traveler and someone with a case, but if they've found such a link that makes a bit more sense.

Not at a point to panic - a few years ago the US had an outbreak centered on a pet store that had imported an exotic pet animal that was infectious. Outbreaks are containable. Let's hope this one is properly addressed.

There is not a specific vaccine for monkeypox, but the old smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective from what I've read (they are related viruses). Monkeypox is not as lethal a disease as some other poxes, but no fun to get either. I'm wondering if some of the current spread is from a variation that induces a mild illness in many/most people that allows it to pass with little attention.

Still isn't a link yet. Just that there is a suspected cluster in Canada so that's probably where he got it from.

There isn't a real reason to panic . The reason however is to begin to mock the Nurgle GOP cultists who start jumping on the You don't need a VACCINE or worse, Gaypox is ravaging America again.


The UK Health Security Agency focused on the fact that their initial 7 cases were all men having sex with men, suggesting that this might have been how the community spread was occuring.

So...... It's probably time to bunker up and wait for how the disease cultists will portray this.

[Tribble]

Ah, so there is a cluster in Canada? Last I heard on the US case they weren't aware of contact between the traveler and someone with a case, but if they've found such a link that makes a bit more sense.

Not at a point to panic - a few years ago the US had an outbreak centered on a pet store that had imported an exotic pet animal that was infectious. Outbreaks are containable. Let's hope this one is properly addressed.

There is not a specific vaccine for monkeypox, but the old smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective from what I've read (they are related viruses). Monkeypox is not as lethal a disease as some other poxes, but no fun to get either. I'm wondering if some of the current spread is from a variation that induces a mild illness in many/most people that allows it to pass with little attention.

Still isn't a link yet. Just that there is a suspected cluster in Canada so that's probably where he got it from.

There isn't a real reason to panic . The reason however is to begin to mock the Nurgle GOP cultists who start jumping on the You don't need a VACCINE or worse, Gaypox is ravaging America again.


The UK Health Security Agency focused on the fact that their initial 7 cases were all men having sex with men, suggesting that this might have been how the community spread was occuring.

So...... It's probably time to bunker up and wait for how the disease cultists will portray this.

Great. I guess the “all gays do is spread diseases because they enjoy sex with monkeys (and children)” mantra may return full force.

It will be interesting to see how this outbreak got started and hit so many countries without being noticed until now.

While IIRC there are samples / stockpiles of smallpox vaccines in reserve, I imagine that should containment measures fail and this thing starts spreading out of control there is no way to get the population vaccinated in time?

[LadyTevar]

Great. I guess the “all gays do is spread diseases because they enjoy sex with monkeys (and children)” mantra may return full force.

It will be interesting to see how this outbreak got started and hit so many countries without being noticed until now.

While IIRC there are samples / stockpiles of smallpox vaccines in reserve, I imagine that should containment measures fail and this thing starts spreading out of control there is no way to get the population vaccinated in time?

No... if this goes Pandemic we absolutely do NOT have enough Smallpox Vaccine.
And right now, I can't remember if I ever got the vaccine, and they're saying if it's been over 40yrs since vaccination, you may no longer be immune.

And, having lived through the AIDS epidemic that "only hit gays" I totally expect there to be assholes rehashing all the old stereotypes.

My big question is "How Did It Spread That Far, that Fast?"

[Ralin]

My big question is "How Did It Spread That Far, that Fast?"

After the past couple years I'd be more surprised if it didn't.

[Broomstick]

It will be interesting to see how this outbreak got started and hit so many countries without being noticed until now.

There have been sporadic cases outside Africa from time to time. For instance, the 2003 US outbreak involving 71 humans across 13 US states as well as a bunch of Gambian pouched rats and prairie dogs. There was no evidence of human to human transmission, apparently all human cases arose from contact with infected animals.

Because monkeypox, while ugly, is not usually lethal, may manifest as a relatively mild illness, and doesn't spread very readily between human beings it can slip under the radar but is not as likely to go either epidemic or full pandemic as more contagious illnesses.

While IIRC there are samples / stockpiles of smallpox vaccines in reserve, I imagine that should containment measures fail and this thing starts spreading out of control there is no way to get the population vaccinated in time?

Nope.

And that's not even considering how many anti-vaxxers are out there.

I'll also note that the old-style smallpox vaccine is, by modern standards, problematic with a higher risk of complications and even death than other vaccines. There are a lot of people who should not receive it: anyone with a weakened/compromised immune system, anyone with a history of eczema, and until the problem is resolved anyone with severe acne, burns, or seborrheic dermatitis, psoriasis (although if they on an immune-suppressing treatment for that no vaccine). (Although back when I was an infant despite my eczema I was vaccinated against smallpox and survived, so complications aren't guaranteed, just much more likely, and it was a different era back then, with smallpox still being "in the wild"). The good news is that there is an anti-viral - tecovirimat - that is effective against orthopox viruses, which include monkeypox. There are two million doses in the US stockpile, which should be sufficient to contain an outbreak if cases can be identified, isolated, and contained but if people aren't paying attention they won't know to treat the problem.

The US claims 300 million "treatment courses" for smallpox, but I'm not sure what exactly that means. Vaccines? Tecovirimat? What? I'll just point out that "two million doses" is not the same thing as "treatment for two million people".

[Broomstick]

And right now, I can't remember if I ever got the vaccine, and they're saying if it's been over 40yrs since vaccination, you may no longer be immune.

If you were vaccinated against smallpox you should have a small, circular scar somewhere. In the US it was usually on the upper arm. Mine is still visible over 55 years later.

Immunity starts to wane after about 5 years. Past 10 there really isn't much left.

[PainRack]

While we wait for the experts to figure out how the clusters are spreading the way they did and hope their preliminary conclusion that this will not be a pandemic is true, let's bring up the idiot tree argument.

No, Astrazeneca adenovirus/chimp virus is not linked to monkeypox.

No. The vaccines did not damage your immune system and thus you got monkeypox.

No. Covid did not damage your immune system and thus you got monkeypox.

No China, the US did not release monkeypox.

No Qanon, the Deep State did not release monkeypox.

No Brownstone Institute, a tabletop exercise does not mean the Deep State released monkeypox, this is not planned.

[Darken]

I don't think that monkeypox will reach pandemic levels of spread. Now before I explain why, I should clarify that this outbreak is serious, and should be taken seriously. That being said, there are a few factors that make me extremely hopeful we can clamp down in this outbreak before it reaches critical levels of spread.

Mode of Transmission: As you mentioned yourself, monkeypox is transmitted primarily through close contact and sexual intercourse. While this doesn't mean this virus can't reach pandemic levels of spread, as HIV clearly shows, it does mean that we can expect it to spread out slower, which means local health authorities have far more time to respond to initial outbreaks. Better yet, monkeypox spreads mostly through contact with infected sores and bodily fluids, which means it is less virulent before noticeable symptoms begin. While this doesn't totally negate risk, it means that infected individuals are more likely to seek medical care and be quarantined before they reach the point when transmission is most likely.

Severity of Symptoms: Part of what makes monkeypox concerning, its prominent and serious symptoms, may ironically be part of what protects us from it becoming a new pandemic. This disease tends cause infected individuals to consistently become seriously ill, and the lesions it creates are extremely distinctive. Based on reports thus far, those who are infected realize quickly that they're sick, and seek medical care. In contrast, many pandemic viruses are able to spread widely because infectious hosts either don't feel very sick, or don't have symptoms at all. For example, COVID was incredibly difficult to contain because many infected individuals, who were perfectly capable of transmitting the virus to others, simply didn't realize they were sick to begin with.

Vaccination: While there isn't a vaccine specifically for monkeypox, the smallpox vaccine is approximately 85% protective against this virus. Given that the smallpox vaccine is still given in many developing countries, and is something a large percentage of adults will have already received, it is entirely possible that entire regions already have enough protection to achieve herd immunity. This considerably slows or outright stops spread in areas with poor health infrastructure, where an outbreak might otherwise go undetected. Ironically, industrialized nations where smallpox vaccination is less common may actually be more vulnerable. However, given the strong healthcare systems in these nations, containment of initial outbreaks is likely.

[Broomstick]

Given that the smallpox vaccine is still given in many developing countries, and is something a large percentage of adults will have already received, it is entirely possible that entire regions already have enough protection to achieve herd immunity.

Errrr.... what?

Smallpox was declared extinct in the wild in 1980. Why the hell would developing countries spend money on a vaccine against a disease that no longer exists? I'm going to have to ask for a cite for that.

Now, in Africa there are countries using the smallpox vaccine against monkeypox since all three viruses are closely related enough that infection by one grants immunity to the others, but that's using it against monkeypox.

Ironically, industrialized nations where smallpox vaccination is less common may actually be more vulnerable. However, given the strong healthcare systems in these nations, containment of initial outbreaks is likely.

Try "non-existent". No one is routinely giving smallpox vaccines because 1) the disease no longer exists outside a couple deep freeze storage units and 2) it has a relatively high level of side effects, some of which are pretty horrible. Thank Og there is a newer form of the vaccine, brand name Jynneos in the US, with a lot fewer and less intense side effects than the earlier versions. Even before smallpox was entirely eliminated routine vaccinations were stopped in most nations that were already free of the virus. The US stopped routine smallpox vaccination in the early 1970's. Currently, the military does vaccinate some people as a form of defense against bioterrorism, and of course any researcher working with the virus but that's a damn small group of people.

Essentially, very few people under the age of 50 these days have ever had even one dose of smallpox vaccine. Most of those are in areas where orthopox viruses (like monkeypox) are endemic.

Also, as noted above, after 10 years the immunity granted by the vaccine is largely non-existent. It might moderate how ill you get but it will not longer prevent you getting the disease, and there are instances of people vaccinated earlier in life dying of orthopox diseases. If your smallpox vaccine is older than 10 years it should be considered useless, you need to be re-vaccinated to be protected.