Noordstream Sabotage

[madd0c0t0r2]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa ... 022-09-28/

WHERE ARE THE LEAKS?
Two leaks were detected on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which stopped delivering gas to Europe last month, both in an area northeast of the Danish island of Bornholm.

A leak was also detected on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has yet to enter commercial operations, in the same area.

Analysts and experts say such leaks are very rare and Nord Stream AG has called leaks on three strings of the offshore gas pipelines "unprecedented".

However, the European Union believes sabotage probably caused the leaks, Josep Borrell was reported as saying by German broadcaster ntv, echoing views aired by Germany, Denmark and Sweden. The EU has not named a potential perpetrator or suggested a reason behind it.

On Wednesday Moscow said claims that Russia was somehow behind a possible attack on the pipelines were stupid, adding that Moscow saw a sharp increase the profits of U.S. companies supplying gas to Europe.

A day earlier the Kremlin had said it did not rule out sabotage as a reason behind the damage and it was an issue affecting the energy security of the "entire continent".

Seismologists in Denmark and Sweden said they had registered two powerful blasts on Monday in the vicinity of the leaks and the explosions were in the water, not under the seabed.

WHO IS INVESTIGATING?
Armed forces, coast guards, maritime authories, energy agencies and police from counties such as Sweden, Germany and Denmark are all carrying out investigations.

Sweden's Prosecution Authority said it will review material from a police investigation into the damage to the pipelines and decide on further action.

Denmark's defence minister has had a meeting with NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, adding it might take a week or perhaps two before the areas around the damaged pipelines were calm enough to be investigated.

POTENTIAL IMPACT?
Denmark's armed forces said the largest gas leak had caused a surface disturbance of well over 1 kilometre (0.6 mile) in diameter, while agencies issued warnings to shipping to avoid the area.

Although neither pipeline was in operation, they both contained natural gas - which is largely composed of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that is the second biggest cause of climate change after CO2.

This has raised fears that the disruption could cause a climate calamity - although to what extent is still unclear.

Norway has said it will strengthen security at its oil and gas installations in the wake of the leaks and reports of drone activities in the North Sea and Danish authorities asked that the level of preparedness in its power and gas sector be raised.[/quote]

[LadyTevar]

First... could this be done by divers alone, or would it take someone with a submarine?

If it's subs, Russian "had to relocate" it's Black Fleet subs from Crimea ports to "avoid Ukrainian attacks" Sept 20th. Sept 2nd, there were reports of a possible Russian Submarine off the coast of Italy, in the Mediterranean.

[madd0c0t0r2]

First... could this be done by divers alone, or would it take someone with a submarine?

If it's subs, Russian "had to relocate" it's Black Fleet subs from Crimea ports to "avoid Ukrainian attacks" Sept 20th. Sept 2nd, there were reports of a possible Russian Submarine off the coast of Italy, in the Mediterranean.

From what I've read, the targeted area is only 80m down, and north sea gas rig divers go up to 150m so very possibly just divers, or any of the many technological solutions we have now.

Some people have made much of it being a shallow, easy to access and repair area on the pipes that currently aren't in use (compared to many others). More of a statement then an attack.

I'd be incredibly surprised if it's Russia. Despite the blockade, the price increase means they were making just as much money on far smaller gas volumes. It's not harming them much, and stopping an easy return to trading doesn't help them either. It kinda removes a bargaining chip from their side where they could have offered midwinter gas in return for less arms support to Ukraine.

Id be surprised if it's Daughters of Khali or other green transition accelerationists. It probably will help the transistion, but no manifesto or statement linking it to recent climate events has come out.

It could be internal faction in the EU, wanting to ensure the courage remains screwed to the sticking point. Could be USA for the same (and that's where I'd put the odds). Could be China looking to maximize the amount of cheap gas they can extract from Russia.

In this cyberpunk world, could even be a private individual looking to profit on the predictable market response. A similar example is the guy who shorted lots of shares in a German football club then tried to bomb the team bus. This is a tier above that, but only a tier. Infrastructure is fantastically vulnerable.

[wautd]

First... could this be done by divers alone, or would it take someone with a submarine?

If it's subs, Russian "had to relocate" it's Black Fleet subs from Crimea ports to "avoid Ukrainian attacks" Sept 20th. Sept 2nd, there were reports of a possible Russian Submarine off the coast of Italy, in the Mediterranean.

From what I've read, the targeted area is only 80m down, and north sea gas rig divers go up to 150m so very possibly just divers, or any of the many technological solutions we have now.

Some people have made much of it being a shallow, easy to access and repair area on the pipes that currently aren't in use (compared to many others). More of a statement then an attack.

I'd be incredibly surprised if it's Russia.

That pipeline was already pretty dead to begin with after all the sanctions so it might as well be Russia. It further destabilizes Europe while giving Putin plausible deniability + it further increases gas prices (and therefore income for his regime).
And the fact that all Kremlin trolls and notorious Putin propagandists are now fanatically blaming the US is, to me, evidence that Russia is behind it as well.

We will probably never know, but on top of an economical disaster, it looks to be an environmental disaster too

[madd0c0t0r2]

We will probably never know, but on top of an economical disaster, it looks to be an environmental disaster too

It's not good for fish in the area, but I did the maths and the full pipeline, assuming it was left at the full working pressure of 22mpa, seems to work out to about 0.0056% of the annual human methane releases. It's irritating but not a tipping point, and if it helps speed the green transition along by a few years a bit ill take it as a environmental win. It's less emissions overall in short term and long term

[wautd]

We will probably never know, but on top of an economical disaster, it looks to be an environmental disaster too

It's not good for fish in the area, but I did the maths and the full pipeline, assuming it was left at the full working pressure of 22mpa, seems to work out to about 0.0056% of the annual human methane releases. It's irritating but not a tipping point, and if it helps speed the green transition along by a few years a bit ill take it as a environmental win. It's less emissions overall in short term and long term

Well that's a relief

[Formless]

That pipeline was already pretty dead to begin with after all the sanctions so it might as well be Russia. It further destabilizes Europe while giving Putin plausible deniability + it further increases gas prices (and therefore income for his regime).
And the fact that all Kremlin trolls and notorious Putin propagandists are now fanatically blaming the US is, to me, evidence that Russia is behind it as well.

We will probably never know, but on top of an economical disaster, it looks to be an environmental disaster too

If it was Russia, why use a bomb? Its their pipeline, they can just shut it off. If they don't want to do it officially, they can make it look like an accident. If they want to make it look like sabotage, they could do it in any number of subtler ways that would be easy, even trivial to fix (particularly if they pretend its a malware attack or something). Being trivial to fix means that if they want to start using it again, they could do so at any time. Bombing it is something you would do if you have nothing invested in the pipeline, which Russia does. While it may work as a temporary means of driving up prices, long run they have to deal with a damaged pipe 80m under water. Destabilizing Europe means nothing if it doesn't accomplish anything meaningful for the Kremlin. After all, waging war isn't cheap, so cutting off any source of cash is only a good idea if it accomplishes something of substantial strategic value. I'm not saying it couldn't be the Kremlin, but I'm with madd0c0t0r2. This doesn't sound like their MO. And just because Russian sources are blaming the US doesn't mean they can't be right. Before the war begun, Biden was saying he would shut down the pipeline as a threat to Putin. He even repeated the threat right on the spot when members of the press pointed out he has no authority over it because its a Russian/German pipeline, not a Russian/US project. Sabotaging it would be one way of carrying out that threat, and there is no question of whether the US has the means. The question is, why now and not many months ago?

I'm not saying definitively this is the US's doing. But its curious no one has claimed responsibility for it at all. Terrorist groups and environmental extremists tend to be much faster to claim responsibility in order to get their message out, sometimes even taking responsibility for crimes they demonstrably couldn't have committed. Silence tends to suggest a state actor. Someone who wants to accomplish something, but leave their motives ambiguous on purpose.

[Broomstick]

Putin has done a lot of stupid shit in this war. Including claiming Russian attacks on Ukrainian targets are actually Ukrainian or NATO false flag operations when it's clear they're nothing of the sort. Bombing his own pipeline fits into that stupidity. Russia cries of "THE US DID IT!" just makes me suspicious that the Russians did it themselves.

A lot of nations could have done it, as could a lot of NGO's. 80m of water is an obstacle that can be overcome without too much trouble these days. There are a lot of entities that could do it. Including, for that matter, Ukraine.

Then there is the matter of who has been seen in the region lately? Both Russian and US/NATO ships. Also, presumably, all manner of other vessels.

OK, that gets us to motivation. You bring up the matter of money.

Right now the pipeline is shut down, it's not making anyone any money, so Russia taking it out doesn't, in that sense, cost them anything. Europe is looking towards other sources of fuel, so having customers come back at the end of the mess is looking less and less likely. Someone might have decided the propaganda value of punching holes in it had value over a pipeline that wasn't being used or making money.

US motivation might be to decisively cut Europe off from dependence on Russian fuel. Sure, that's possible. And then the US can sell things like natural gas to Europe, so double value except I don't think US producers can keep up with that demand, so Europe will still go to other suppliers and the US doesn't gain that money, although it does further isolate Russia so maybe that's the point. Still, it's too easy to point the finger at the US - other culprits should be considered.

Ukraine has the problem of lack of access, they aren't flush with ships at this point, but they are in a war right now so dispatching a few small crews to do this isn't beyond possibility, even if unlikely. The Ukrainians have been full of unlikely during this whole shitshow. Why would they do that? It's a Russian pipeline and they're at war with Russia.

I leave it as an exercise for others to come up with more unlikely scenarios, although I think we can rule out extra-terrestrial agents as a cause. Probably not Yetis, either. Eco-terrorists might be responsible, we haven't heard from that sort for awhile.

Ideally, this should be investigated by a trustworthy and technically capable neutral third party, but I'm not sure there is one at the moment.

[wautd]

That pipeline was already pretty dead to begin with after all the sanctions so it might as well be Russia. It further destabilizes Europe while giving Putin plausible deniability + it further increases gas prices (and therefore income for his regime).
And the fact that all Kremlin trolls and notorious Putin propagandists are now fanatically blaming the US is, to me, evidence that Russia is behind it as well.

We will probably never know, but on top of an economical disaster, it looks to be an environmental disaster too

If it was Russia, why use a bomb? Its their pipeline, they can just shut it off.

Intimidation. They can blow up their own pipelines just as easily as they can others.
For other things like glassfiber cables, just the same
They have invested in the pipeline, but politically, the pipeline was already dead as Europe is in the process of getting independent of Russian gas.
Hell, maybe it wasn't Putin, but a (more) extremist rogue faction within his regime. I've seen a lot of trolls who are so deluded to think that Europe will freeze to death this winter

[Elfdart]

If it was Russia, why use a bomb? Its their pipeline, they can just shut it off.

Intimidation. They can blow up their own pipelines just as easily as they can others.
For other things like glassfiber cables, just the same
They have invested in the pipeline, but politically, the pipeline was already dead as Europe is in the process of getting independent of Russian gas.
Hell, maybe it wasn't Putin, but a (more) extremist rogue faction within his regime. I've seen a lot of trolls who are so deluded to think that Europe will freeze to death this winter

This crank theory only holds water if you think Germany and other countries who rely on Russian gas are like the townspeople of Rock Ridge, and Sheriff Bart tries to bluff them by actually shooting himself. Formless is right: if Putin wants to extort Germany by cutting them off, he can just throw a switch on his end of the pipeline -and flip it back if and when Germans are tired of freezing or paying absurd prices to stay warm this winter. Now, even if Putin (or whoever might take his place in the future) withdraws completely and Germany wants to buy again, they can't.

Maybe NATO is counting on a very mild winter.

[Ralin]

Probably shouldn't rule out some sort of freak accident too, despite leaks being very rare. There's been a lot of weird shit happening in recent years.

[LadyTevar]

Probably shouldn't rule out some sort of freak accident too, despite leaks being very rare. There's been a lot of weird shit happening in recent years.

Two explosions, not inside the pipelines but at the surface pointed down to them, within 18hrs of each other?

No one believes it was an accident. The evidence all points to SOMEONE blowing it up. Russia was quick to blame it on the US. Europe is blaming Russia.
All we know right now is someone had to have the equipment to boat out to the pipelines, had to have the equipment to dive 80m to reach them (swimming or submarine), and had to have enough explosives to blow the pipelines.
Unfortunately, unless a satellite was looking at the right place at the right time, there's no way to ever SEE who did it. And any evidence either blew up with the pipe, or was sent flying with the broil of escaping gas.

But whomever did it made a Statement -- I can do this. I can do this to other pipelines. And THAT has all the Nordic countries in an uproar.

[Broomstick]

All we know right now is someone had to have the equipment to boat out to the pipelines, had to have the equipment to dive 80m to reach them (swimming or submarine), and had to have enough explosives to blow the pipelines.

With today's technology, though, it wouldn't need a nation-state to pull that off.

[Solauren]

All we know right now is someone had to have the equipment to boat out to the pipelines, had to have the equipment to dive 80m to reach them (swimming or submarine), and had to have enough explosives to blow the pipelines.

With today's technology, though, it wouldn't need a nation-state to pull that off.

A Nation state? Hell, private individuals could probably pull it off.

There is an island within 10 kms of both sites. Major industry is fishing.
A decent personal boat could go to one, then the other, and then back without any problem. (Let alone a fishing boat)

With the right diving equipment, getting down 80 meters isn't that hard. Hell, you can get Scuba equipment and training to go down to 100 meters. (And deeper if you have the money and right equipment).

Hell, I can go out and buy a portable electric drill that will function at 40 - 50 meters (took 10 seconds to find a manufacturer on google. Type portable underwater drill. They also sell grinders), and you get can pipe drills that are used to drill holes for pipes into the ground or under water. Oil platforms are just (conceptually) massively upscaled (and reinforced and more complicated) versions of those pipe drills.

Take one out on a fishing boat, have people guide it down, drill a hole, and see if the initial damage causes the pipe to burst out to the level you need. If not, drop an explosive on a timer in, and then take off. When the explosive goes off, it will detonate the natural gas coming out of the line.

Taking out a shallow water pipe like that isn't hard. Very few people have the motivation to do it. No one wants to freeze in winter.

[Zaune]

One other possibility occurs to me: Are we sure this wasn't a result of a Russian submarine spooking a NATO warship into lobbing some depth charges or something, which nobody's admitting to because they don't want to deal with the political fallout?

[Broomstick]

One maybe. Multiple holes in multiple pipes? Nope. Not an accident.

[bilateralrope]

When the explosive goes off, it will detonate the natural gas coming out of the line.

Where do you think the oxygen for the detonation comes from ?


Here's a guardian article talking about the size of the explosions

Intelligence sources quoted in the news magazine Spiegel believe the pipelines were hit in four places by explosions using 500kg of TNT, the equivalent to the explosive power of a heavy aircraft bomb. German investigators have undertaken seismic readings to calculate the power of the blasts.

[Solauren]

When the explosive goes off, it will detonate the natural gas coming out of the line.

Where do you think the oxygen for the detonation comes from ?

I'm not a chemistry or explosives expert, but the existence of stuff that would react explosively with whatever is in the pipes that doesn't require oxygen wouldn't surprise me.

Here's a guardian article talking about the size of the explosions[/url]

Intelligence sources quoted in the news magazine Spiegel believe the pipelines were hit in four places by explosions using 500kg of TNT, the equivalent to the explosive power of a heavy aircraft bomb. German investigators have undertaken seismic readings to calculate the power of the blasts.

Yeah, 500kg of TNT could be put in place using the stuff I mentioned above.

[madd0c0t0r2]

When the explosive goes off, it will detonate the natural gas coming out of the line.

Where do you think the oxygen for the detonation comes from ?

I'm not a chemistry or explosives expert, but the existence of stuff that would react explosively with whatever is in the pipes that doesn't require oxygen wouldn't surprise me.

Here's a guardian article talking about the size of the explosions[/url]

Intelligence sources quoted in the news magazine Spiegel believe the pipelines were hit in four places by explosions using 500kg of TNT, the equivalent to the explosive power of a heavy aircraft bomb. German investigators have undertaken seismic readings to calculate the power of the blasts.

Yeah, 500kg of TNT could be put in place using the stuff I mentioned above.

Density of TNT is 1.654g/cm3 - makes it 'only' 200kg underwater, but still a hecking pallet of stuff to shift. Mores the point, sourcing 500kg of feels like something you wouldn't be able to do via a mercenary company or quarry. that's a guess though

[Bedlam]

Saying the explosion was equivalent to 500kg TNT does not mean that 500kg was actually used, TNT is just used as a standard measure of explosive force. I'm not an expert but I assume there are other explosives which are much more powerful kg for kg than TNT so the actual weight needed to be transported could be much less.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Saying the explosion was equivalent to 500kg TNT does not mean that 500kg was actually used, TNT is just used as a standard measure of explosive force. I'm not an expert but I assume there are other explosives which are much more powerful kg for kg than TNT so the actual weight needed to be transported could be much less.

the point is that those more intense explosives are (one would assume) even more heavily restricted. The size of this is therefore more pointing at nation-state level operator (though there's several private indiviuduals/corps operating at similar levels, most aren't)

[Solauren]

the point is that those more intense explosives are (one would assume) even more heavily restricted. The size of this is therefore more pointing at nation-state level operator (though there's several private indiviuduals/corps operating at similar levels, most aren't)

Bullshit!

Truck bomb, 1993 World Trade Center.
1995 Oklahoma City bombing

The stuff used is still restricted in the United States, as they all have legitimate industrial uses.

All you need is time, money, patience, and a little training/knowledge to obtain the materials needed to build an explosive.
(Not saying it wasn't a country, just saying that they are not the only ones capable of it).

[bilateralrope]

the point is that those more intense explosives are (one would assume) even more heavily restricted. The size of this is therefore more pointing at nation-state level operator (though there's several private indiviuduals/corps operating at similar levels, most aren't)

Bullshit!

Truck bomb, 1993 World Trade Center.
1995 Oklahoma City bombing

What explosive material was used in those ?

[aerius]

What explosive material was used in those ?

ANFO. Something like 5000lbs of it for the Oklahoma city truck bomb.

[Ralin]

The operative word there is 'truck'

Good luck getting a truck bomb's worth of explosives down there in the right place with scuba gear.