Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[bilateralrope]

Japan consul ‘blindfolded and restrained’ during FSB interrogation in Russia

Justin McCurry in Tokyo
Tue 27 Sep 2022 06.42 BS

Tokyo demands apology from Moscow after diplomat subjected to ‘coercive interrogation’ in Vladivostok

Japan has summoned Russia’s ambassador in Tokyo after a Japanese diplomat was blindfolded and physically restrained during an interrogation in Vladivostok.

Japan’s foreign minister, Yoshimasa Hayashi, said Tatsunori Motoki, a consul based in the eastern Russian city, had been subjected to a “coercive interrogation” during his detention by Russia’s FSB security service.

The FSB said it was holding him on allegations of espionage, one of which was linked to the effect of Ukraine war sanctions on Russia.

The Kremlin has previously labelled Japan a “hostile country” – a designation it shares with the US, Britain and EU countries – after Tokyo joined them in imposing sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Hayashi said on Tuesday that Motoki had not engaged in any illegal activity and described his detention, which lasted several hours, as “totally unacceptable”.

In response, Japan’s foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador, Mikhail Galuzin, over the incident, according to the Kyodo news agency.

The ministry demanded that Moscow make a formal apology, Hayashi said, adding the government would consider appropriate retaliatory measures.

Motoki was detained and accused of spying after he allegedly obtained classified information in exchange for a payment, the FSB alleged.

The diplomat, it added, had been declared persona non grata and ordered to leave Russia within 48 hours. Media reports said he was expected back in Japan by Wednesday.

“A Japanese diplomat was detained red-handed while receiving classified information, in exchange for money, about Russia’s cooperation with another country in the Asia-Pacific region,” the FSB claimed in a statement carried by Russian news agencies on Monday.

The FSB also claimed he had been soliciting information about the impact on the eastern Primorsky region of sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Japan’s embassy in Moscow lodged a protest with the Russian foreign ministry, describing Motoki’s detention and interrogation as violations of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations.

What did the FSB think they were going to accomplish with this ?

[PainRack]

Why are people hating on Snowden, because he ended up in Russia he's a russian stooge? From what I understood he hasn't had much choice in the matter. Did he come out in favor of the invasion? I haven't kept up with him at all.

He kept mostly quiet on Twitter since the invasion started . He did publish an article about the CIA and the secrecy just this month and yeah ...

The thing is right now, he's linked with the Alt right due to links with Glenwald and his attacks such as on MBS, inflation and etc serve to amplify right-wing propaganda .

The PROBLEM of course is. We SHOULD be upset at MBS and Biden failure to do anything, meeting up with him.
We should be upset that the US govt is going to ban TikTok because TikTok is leaking people private data to China government but Facebook/Apple is allowed to leak /sell private data to analytics which can be used by the government

But it feels a lot like Snowden is now the gateway to alt right propaganda, just like Assange was.

[madd0c0t0r2]

But it feels a lot like Snowden is now the gateway to alt right propaganda, just like Assange was.

Easiest way to divide people who might act on what he revealed.

[wautd]

Japan consul ‘blindfolded and restrained’ during FSB interrogation in Russia

Justin McCurry in Tokyo
Tue 27 Sep 2022 06.42 BS
.

What did the FSB think they were going to accomplish with this ?

Who knows. It's not like Putinstan, I mean the Russian Federation cares a lot about international law or decency.
With the annexations after the fraudulent referendums, whatever little hope for peace remained, is now gone

[Lord Revan]

Japan consul ‘blindfolded and restrained’ during FSB interrogation in Russia

Justin McCurry in Tokyo
Tue 27 Sep 2022 06.42 BS
.

What did the FSB think they were going to accomplish with this ?

Who knows. It's not like Putinstan, I mean the Russian Federation cares a lot about international law or decency.
With the annexations after the fraudulent referendums, whatever little hope for peace remained, is now gone

Well there's still hope for peace assuming the campaign at Ukraine is an utter failure and nukes are not used to end it.

Russia and Putin are grasping at the power USSR had at height of the cold war not accepting that world is very different place then in the 1960s and 1970s, however the Russian tricolor is yet to be replaced by the brass rune of Khorne so it's likely Russia isn't after war for its own sake and there's still a tipping point where the war becomes too costly for Russia to maintain.

It's a safe bet the internal issues in Russia are most likely much worse than what is reported, seeing as Putin and Russian Government have interest at keeping a tight lid on news of internal division in Russia and what we're witnessing is just the stuff that gets past the censors.

[His Divine Shadow]

Compared to the Soviet Union, Putins russia feels alot more thuggish and unreliable, more like dealing with a drug gang than a country.

[Lord Revan]

Compared to the Soviet Union, Putins russia feels alot more thuggish and unreliable, more like dealing with a drug gang than a country.

Oh you get no arguments from me, I said they're trying to reach the power and status USSR had at height of the Cold War, I didn't argue they were anything like USSR of that time.

What Putin and his cronies don't seem to get is that major part of that status was the fact that dealing with USSR felt like dealing with rational people, not mad men who could go back on promises based on the tides.

EDIT: I mean Finland stayed neutral for the whole Cold War despite us being right next USSR simply because Soviet leaders understood that a neutral free Finland was of more benefit to them then an unwilling vassal, by comparison Russia made Finland (and Sweden) break that neutrality and seek NATO membership and with near universal approval in both countries.

[Captain Seafort]

I said they're trying to reach the power and status USSR had at height of the Cold War

I'm not sure it's case of "trying to reach" so much as "acting as if they've still got", including working from the premise that Ukraine is a de facto part of Russia, and therefore the entire invasion is just an internal security exercise, and that the current Russian Army is the old GSFG rather than something resembling the 1945 Wehrmacht.

[LadyTevar]

As expected, Putin has claimed the Referendum gave him the power to annex those regions as Russian Territory.

As expected, he's ranted about what he'd do if "The West" attacks the new Russian Territory.

As expected, the rest of the UN and NATO have declared it all a farce, and are continuing to back Ukraine. Ukraine has asked for their entry to NATO be accelerated in the face of Russia's highly illegal move.

Some are comparing this to how Russia took over the Crimea. Big difference there -- Crimea wasn't in the middle of an active war-zone, with Ukraine military in the process of re-taking Russian positions. Russia did not have to fire a shot to take Crimea. NATO and UN made noises and tsk-tsked, but let it stand.

Everyone knows this Referendum was a sham, simply to give Putin an excuse to claim "Russian Territory" was being attacked. This way he can reword it from a "Special Military Action" to "WAR", and fire up the Russian populace with "We were Attacked!!" propaganda. He would be able to expand the current draft as well.

But ... can he actually use that military?
There's already rumors that the Russian POWs captures over the last few days are saying they were given barely a week's training before they were on the front lines. The conscripts' weaponry is dated, some looking like they were last used in WWII. While you may not want to give conscripts from prisons GOOD weapons, it still feeds the current theory that Russia Corruption has gutted their military readiness.

So, it all boils down to can Putin actually back up his rhetoric.
And, is he going to become desperate enough to pull out the Nukes.

[Solauren]

While I wouldn't rule Nuclear Weapons out, I don't see that as likely.

Nuclear Weapons have always been seen as a last resort in warfare since WW2. Almost a way of saying 'I lost'.

I can't see Putin doing that.

Instead, I see him sending massive amounts of his own people into a military quagmire/meat grinder of his own making, until he dies of natural causes, or is removed from office (which may or may not involve his death of non-natural causes).

[Lord Revan]

As expected, Putin has claimed the Referendum gave him the power to annex those regions as Russian Territory.

As expected, he's ranted about what he'd do if "The West" attacks the new Russian Territory.

As expected, the rest of the UN and NATO have declared it all a farce, and are continuing to back Ukraine. Ukraine has asked for their entry to NATO be accelerated in the face of Russia's highly illegal move.

Some are comparing this to how Russia took over the Crimea. Big difference there -- Crimea wasn't in the middle of an active war-zone, with Ukraine military in the process of re-taking Russian positions. Russia did not have to fire a shot to take Crimea. NATO and UN made noises and tsk-tsked, but let it stand.

Everyone knows this Referendum was a sham, simply to give Putin an excuse to claim "Russian Territory" was being attacked. This way he can reword it from a "Special Military Action" to "WAR", and fire up the Russian populace with "We were Attacked!!" propaganda. He would be able to expand the current draft as well.

But ... can he actually use that military?
There's already rumors that the Russian POWs captures over the last few days are saying they were given barely a week's training before they were on the front lines. The conscripts' weaponry is dated, some looking like they were last used in WWII. While you may not want to give conscripts from prisons GOOD weapons, it still feeds the current theory that Russia Corruption has gutted their military readiness.

So, it all boils down to can Putin actually back up his rhetoric.
And, is he going to become desperate enough to pull out the Nukes.

There's also the matter are the Russian nukes in a condition that they can be used or has the previously mentioned corruption gutted the maintenance for the nukes and thus the warheads are no longer in the condition they can be used for their intended purpose.

[Lord Revan]

While I wouldn't rule Nuclear Weapons out, I don't see that as likely.

Nuclear Weapons have always been seen as a last resort in warfare since WW2. Almost a way of saying 'I lost'.

I can't see Putin doing that.

Instead, I see him sending massive amounts of his own people into a military quagmire/meat grinder of his own making, until he dies of natural causes, or is removed from office (which may or may not involve his death of non-natural causes).

Putin might not say "I lost", but he might say "if I can't have it no one will"

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I've read that the wind mainly blows from west to east, if so any WMDs Putin uses will be blown towards his own troops if not Russia itself. Which is only marginally better than if it carries it the other way into Europe, which will be basically NATO casus belli.

[Solauren]

While I wouldn't rule Nuclear Weapons out, I don't see that as likely.

Nuclear Weapons have always been seen as a last resort in warfare since WW2. Almost a way of saying 'I lost'.

I can't see Putin doing that.

Instead, I see him sending massive amounts of his own people into a military quagmire/meat grinder of his own making, until he dies of natural causes, or is removed from office (which may or may not involve his death of non-natural causes).

Putin might not say "I lost", but he might say "if I can't have it no one will"

Same as admitting you lost. Can't see him doing it. Wasting hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars? Yes. Admitting he failed/lost? Notso much.

[FireNexus]

Japan consul ‘blindfolded and restrained’ during FSB interrogation in Russia
What did the FSB think they were going to accomplish with this ?

I imagine they presumed they were interrogating a foreign intelligence operative, and thus believed it would be treated as a cost of being in the espionage business and not become a big deal. They may even have been doing just that, as it’s apparently routine practice to station spies under an official diplomatic cover. (Remember how Garak was place as the gardener at the cardassian consulate on Romulus, and assassinated Romulan intelligence agents or unfriendly members of the government for the obsidian order. Similar thing, but I doubt the Japanese were doing anything that bad if they were spying. Maybe just stealing secrets or blackmailing civil servants to weaken the regime. You know, spook stuff.)

They have diplomatic immunity, in theory, which should protect them. But if they get caught or appear to get caught spying bad enough (and don’t get themselves back into the consulate before the authorities catch up with them) then they basically get treated as criminals working for a foreign government with all that entails (because, well, that’s what they are). This could have been a misunderstanding, or the Japanese government being unwilling to admit to engaging in espionage to the point that they publicly protest the retaliation as an injustice to save face.

I’m not saying this guy was a spy. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he was, let alone if the FSB just incompetently thought he was and treated him as such.

[Broomstick]

While I wouldn't rule Nuclear Weapons out, I don't see that as likely.

I think tactical nukes are more likely than strategic, but I sincerely hope neither are used.

Instead, I see him sending massive amounts of his own people into a military quagmire/meat grinder of his own making, until he dies of natural causes, or is removed from office (which may or may not involve his death of non-natural causes).

You're talking about a country where "falling out of a high window" and "smoking accident" seem to be regarded as "natural causes".... or at least common ones.

[Broomstick]

I've read that the wind mainly blows from west to east, if so any WMDs Putin uses will be blown towards his own troops if not Russia itself.

When has Putin ever demonstrated he gives a fuck about lives other than his own?

If WMD's are used rest assure Putin (and anyone he cares anything about, if such people exist) will be far away from the downwind plume.

[Lord Revan]

While I wouldn't rule Nuclear Weapons out, I don't see that as likely.

I think tactical nukes are more likely than strategic, but I sincerely hope neither are used.

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me at all if Russia had no tactical nukes that could be used (with the nuclear material either having been sold in the black market or degraded to point it's no longer usable), honestly I suspect Putin has no real intention of using nukes and he's bluffing and hoping the west won't risk Armageddon to call his bluff and thus Russia (and by extension Putin) is allowed to do what they please.

Putin is arrogant but he's not stupid no who got his position in the USSR could be.

[Broomstick]

OK, we call his bluff and it turns out the tactical nukes are in as bad (or worse) shape than the rest of the Russian equipment. What happens then? At that point, not only is Putin's army losing territory but his bluff has been exposed as just that, a bluff. Where does he go from there? (Aside from "out an upper floor window")

[Lord Revan]

OK, we call his bluff and it turns out the tactical nukes are in as bad (or worse) shape than the rest of the Russian equipment. What happens then? At that point, not only is Putin's army losing territory but his bluff has been exposed as just that, a bluff. Where does he go from there? (Aside from "out an upper floor window")

I suspect he hasn't thought things that far, this whole conflict has been a long series of failures due to Russia not considering any other results then "we win".

It's really up in the air since even if we assume Putin is removed from power, we have no idea what his successor will be like.

[Solauren]

I can see Putin doing the meat grinder routine through winter, and then demanding a ceasefire, trying to make Ukraine look like the aggressor, and then letting the fighting just tapper off as long as the Ukraine doesn't counter-invade.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I can see Putin doing the meat grinder routine through winter, and then demanding a ceasefire, trying to make Ukraine look like the aggressor, and then letting the fighting just tapper off as long as the Ukraine doesn't counter-invade.

If he does that Ukraine's counter-demand will be that Russia withdraws its remaining troops from all occupied areas, anything less will be a concession to Russia.

Of course Putler's claiming Ukraine retaking territory is them doing exactly that, hopefully they keep up the pressure on the invaders. The thing is, it's a corner that he's painted himself into.

This is looking increasingly likely from Putin behind the scenes:

[Crazedwraith]

Putin's already calling Ukraine the aggressor and caling for talks.

This does seem like an ideal 'mission accomplished' moment for him. "Hey look we've liberated the Russian bits! Job done."

[wautd]

Compared to the Soviet Union, Putins russia feels alot more thuggish and unreliable, more like dealing with a drug gang than a country.

Since he's last 'speech' (for lack of a better word) he sounds like an unhinged and deranged fundamentalist lunatic

[Captain Seafort]

I can see Putin doing the meat grinder routine through winter, and then demanding a ceasefire

What makes you think the Russian army is capable of this? They were turfed out of Kharkiv a couple of weeks ago, the Lyman position has collapsed, they might be about to suffer another Kharkiv-scale boot up the arse, and they're resorting to the age-old Russian doctrine of "throw (completely untrained) people at the problem in the hope it goes away". Even if the Ukrainians just sit around doing nothing after the autumn rasputitsa ends and everything freezes (not something I consider likely), there might not be a Russian army come spring.

Since he's last 'speech' (for lack of a better word) he sounds like an unhinged and deranged fundamentalist lunatic.

So Putin is still Putin, then?