Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Ralin]

While it doesn't make much sense for them to have deliberately done this, we're well past the point of "Putin/the Russian government has to know" or "they couldn't possibly be that stupid" being convincing arguments.

And if we're going to go full Clancychat, bringing NATO into the fight more directly would potentially be a face-saving way for Putin to spin ending this compared to the prospect of losing a war to Ukraine.

[wautd]

well in the 8 hours since you all got on your high horse, Biden has also stated 'unlikely to be a russian missile'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... biden-says

It seems possible it was a Ukrainian interceptor missile launched at a russian missile. It also seems likely that all parties (except Ukraine) want to play down the potential 'strike on a nato member' aspect. Why wouldn't they? Russia is already losing at little risk to Nato.

It all seems plausible. But again, it wouldn't have happened if Russia didn't bombed targets that close to the Polish border to begin with

[KraytKing]

Classic boy who cried wolf. Russia wasn't even lying when they told everyone they didn't fire the missile, and the fact that nobody believed them for the barest moment just tickles me pink.

Glad that it seems to be winding down though. Article 5 I doubt was ever really on the table, but it would have been our death. I don't believe strictly conventional war can exist between NATO and Russia.

[LadyTevar]

Well, it seems to be officially over. They haven't stated it bluntly, but it seems the missile was a Ukrainian Defense missile. However, they are not blaming Ukraine, because Ukraine was responding to a massive missile bombardment.

Poland States Missile Was Accident

Polish President Andrzej Duda has said there are no signs of an intentional attack after a missile strike killed two people on a farm near the western border with Ukraine.

Earlier, US President Joe Biden said it was "unlikely" the missile had been fired from Russia.

The two workers were killed as Ukraine came under fire from one of the biggest barrages of missile strikes of the war.

The Kremlin had insisted it had nothing to do with their deaths.

Poland said initially that the missile that hit the farm at Przewodow, 6km (4 miles) from the border was Russian-made.

Accusing Western states of a hysterical reaction, Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Warsaw should have immediately made clear the debris had come from Ukraine's S-300 air defences.

Both Russia and Ukraine use the old Soviet surface-to-air missiles and Kyiv said it wanted to be part of the investigation, adding it was ready to provide evidence of a "Russian trace" in the strike.

The BBC's Paul Adams said Ukraine's air defences had been working hard to bring down Russian missiles and it was possible that one of the missiles fired had been knocked off course.

As investigators searched the site of the strike, Nato ambassadors met in Brussels to assess how to react to Russia's war spilling over into a member state.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters there was no indication that the incident was a result of a deliberate attack or that Moscow was preparing offensive actions against the defensive alliance.

However, he said that "Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine", adding: "Let me be clear, this is not Ukraine's fault."

More than 90 Russian missiles were fired at Ukraine on Tuesday, according to Kyiv. Although the Ukrainian military said 77 were shot down, some of the missiles hit Lviv, not far from the country's western border with Poland.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said most of the rockets fired by Russian forces had been aimed at the country's energy infrastructure.

Poland's military was placed on high alert in the aftermath of the explosion.

On Wednesday, Polish President Duda told a press conference that although a Russian-made S-300 missile was most likely to blame, there was no evidence it had been fired by the Russian side. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki added that invoking Nato's Article 4, which calls for consultations in the face of a security threat, might not be necessary.

[The Infidel]

I hope both Ukraine and Poland gets more NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, also known as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System). NASAMS having the advantage of using AMRAAM, AMRAAM-ER and Sidewinders, missiles that are stockpiled by the metric shitton by NATO and can be given to Ukraine in the hundreds, if not thousands. Also, NASAMS shot down 100% of Russian targets this time.

Also, I guess these missiles were launched from Russia? Do Ukraine have anything that can reach those launch sites? Russian military sites are legitimate targets to Ukraine.

sources:
https://www.ukrgate.com/eng/?p=49759
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS

[LadyTevar]

Also, I guess these missiles were launched from Russia? Do Ukraine have anything that can reach those launch sites? Russian military sites are legitimate targets to Ukraine.

sources:
https://www.ukrgate.com/eng/?p=49759
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS

I believe they were from Russian-controlled areas, like Crimea and Black Sea? They've not gone into details on where they came from that I've seen today.

[Solauren]

Also, I guess these missiles were launched from Russia? Do Ukraine have anything that can reach those launch sites? Russian military sites are legitimate targets to Ukraine.

sources:
https://www.ukrgate.com/eng/?p=49759
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS

I believe they were from Russian-controlled areas, like Crimea and Black Sea? They've not gone into details on where they came from that I've seen today.

If I was Russia, i'd be launching missiles from areas under hostile occupation. That way....
#1 - If Ukraine fires back at the launch points, they are essentially hitting their own people/areas.
#2 - Less material to evacuate/Ukraine to capture and turn against Russia.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Also, I guess these missiles were launched from Russia? Do Ukraine have anything that can reach those launch sites? Russian military sites are legitimate targets to Ukraine.

sources:
https://www.ukrgate.com/eng/?p=49759
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS

I believe they were from Russian-controlled areas, like Crimea and Black Sea? They've not gone into details on where they came from that I've seen today.

If I was Russia, i'd be launching missiles from areas under hostile occupation. That way....
#1 - If Ukraine fires back at the launch points, they are essentially hitting their own people/areas.
#2 - Less material to evacuate/Ukraine to capture and turn against Russia.

Russia has been leaving a lot of equipment behind as Ukraine retakes territory, that would include missile launchers.

[Solauren]

Russia has been leaving a lot of equipment behind as Ukraine retakes territory, that would include missile launchers.

True, lots of equipment.

But, what I'm suggesting is that they might be trying to empty out all the ordance they can before/while bugging out.

Which is worse - losing a full loaded Missile launcher that can immediately be turned against you, or sending those missiles into enemy territory and leaving a non unarmed/unfueled launcher behind?

A Full loaded Missile launcher, Ukraine can literally turn on Russia immediately. (What we all want)
A unarmed one, Ukraine has to relocate to a base for arming. That takes personnel to do, and ever-so-slightly slows down Ukraine's retaking of territory, giving Russia that much more time to evacuate and then fortify. (What Russia wants)

[EnterpriseSovereign]

That's just about the only option they would have, if they were even semi-competent, they would either destroy/disable anything they couldn't take with them or at least booby-trap it.

[LadyTevar]

I have heard some say there's a "Break" between Ukraine and Poland over this.

What people are forgetting is IT WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED IF RUSSIA WASN'T SHOOTING MISSILES INTO UKRAINE.
Cause and effect people!!!

[Zaune]

The Ukrainians are easier to bully into coughing up compensation.

[Lord Revan]

IIRC Polish authorities have stated they're not blaming Ukraine for this, suggesting no breakdown of relationship there, honestly this sounds more like wishful thinking from the US right then actual fact.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And the Russians, I imagine.

[Lord Revan]

And the Russians, I imagine.

True but I was mostly referring to what Lady Tevar and I don't think she listens to or watches much Russian media.

[Lord Revan]

Classic boy who cried wolf. Russia wasn't even lying when they told everyone they didn't fire the missile, and the fact that nobody believed them for the barest moment just tickles me pink.

Yeah that's the deal here, Russia has lied so many times to cover up atrocities they have done or setbacks they suffered (and really poorly I might add) that people have hard time trusting anything they say at this point.

While Russian weren't to blame this time (at least directly, as others have pointed out Ukraine wouldn't launching missiles near the Polish border if Russia wasn't sending missile strikes to that area to begin with), it wasn't out of the realm of possibility they could have done it either and they were the usual suspect too.

[Ralin]

I think it was less about not believing them and more that they've proven we can never totally discount that they did something brutal for the sake of being brutal even if it wasn't in their best interests to do so.

[LadyTevar]

And now there's been more missile strikes and explosions at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Zaporizhzhia Shelling: Explosions at Nuclear Plant

The Russians are saying it's the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians aren't saying anything.

The head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, made an urgent appeal for a stop to the fighting at the Zaporizhzhia plant. "Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately," he said. "You're playing with fire!"

[Broomstick]

Fucking idiots whoever is doing it.

[LadyTevar]

Fucking idiots whoever is doing it.

Do they want something worse than Chernobyl? This is how you get it.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Fucking idiots whoever is doing it.

Do they want something worse than Chernobyl? This is how you get it.

Given Russian/Ukrainian history? It's probably another bout of 'screw the Ukrainians as hard as possible because they disobeyed Russia again' on Russia's part.

[LadyTevar]

Given Russian/Ukrainian history? It's probably another bout of 'screw the Ukrainians as hard as possible because they disobeyed Russia again' on Russia's part.

The problem with that idea is RUSSIA HAS CONTROL of that particular plant.
If Russia is shelling it, they're shelling their OWN Troops.

[Solauren]

Given Russian/Ukrainian history? It's probably another bout of 'screw the Ukrainians as hard as possible because they disobeyed Russia again' on Russia's part.

The problem with that idea is RUSSIA HAS CONTROL of that particular plant.
If Russia is shelling it, they're shelling their OWN Troops.

Possible reasons why - (In the order I think is most likely)
#1 They want to damage the plant, to give Ukraine even more problems to deal with. Another breech there would seriously slow the Ukraine counter offensive
#2 - They want to blame it on the Ukrainians
#3 - Russian troops there are actually disobeying orders, so Russia is shelling them as punishment, and could give a shit about the plant
#4 - This is actually the start of infighting within the Russian military/government.

[Lord Revan]

There's also the possibility that Russian forces had bad intel they were shelling what they thought was Ukrainian forces, but it was actually their own forces.

Sounds stupid sure but wouldn't be the first time bad intel had caused "blue on blue" actions and with the quality Russians forces have shown in this conflict I could buy a field commander ordering a shelling in panic even on themselves because of bad intel without confirming the intel first.

[Zaune]

It seems the Ukrainians have fought their way to within a pretty short distance of the plant as well. Could be someone called in fire support danger close and discovered why they tell you not to do that unless you are very, very desperate the hard way.

Or, let's face it, they could have deliberately tried to blow some holes in the reactor vessels out of sheer spite.