Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[madd0c0t0r2]

I'm not aware of any that large either - larger ones with morphing wings do exist, and the plans have been published: https://bakefoldprint.wordpress.com/202 ... s-are-fun/

They are they type I was thinking of, slow flapper/gliders that look like 'real' large birds up to the point they throw themselves into your jet engine.

[Lord Revan]

Until those warlords start nuking each other.

Or anything close enough to Russia to be still within the danger zone, not to mention some of those warlords might think raiding their neighbors is a good way to get additional income and equipment.

If Russia fractures into warlord zones and they start nuking each other eventually we all get to breathe the literal fallout.

probably but as I've stated earlier this thread I live within a days drive from St. Petersburg, so I'm a lot more worried about things spilling over then someone living in the USA.

[Broomstick]

Understandably so.

But a nuclear war touches everyone in the end, which is why even people on the other side of the world should give a damn. There is nowhere "far away" when that happens, we are all close neighbors even if some are closer than others. The impact to you would be quicker and more immediate, that is true. But there is nowhere "safe" where one can escape all effects.

[LadyTevar]

And this happened Thursday, just getting news about it now:

BELARUS DOWNED UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MISSILE OVER TERRITORY

Belarus has summoned the Ukrainian ambassador, saying it shot down a Ukrainian air defence missile in Belarusian territory.

It happened on Thursday, during one of Russia's heaviest aerial onslaughts against Ukraine so far.

Footage from Belarusian state television appeared to show missile debris in a field.

A Ukrainian military spokesman said the incident was "the result of air defence".

Belarus - a key ally of Russia - has called on Kyiv to carry out a full investigation after the S-300 rocket came down near the border.

Kirill Kazantsev, an officer with Belarusian missile defence forces, has said they are considering two scenarios.

"The first is an accidental launch [by Ukraine] of the air defence missile because of the low training level of the military crew or missile malfunction. The second is a deliberate provocation by the Ukrainian military forces."

It is the first time Belarus has shot down a Ukraine missile since the Russian invasion in February.
(snip)

There's more in the article, including Ukraine's defense ministry suggesting Russia deliberately fired missiles so they'd have to be intercepted over Belarus.

[Dominus Atheos]

Some things I read make me suspect Poland has been quietly but deliberately intimidating Belarus and threatening a counter-invasion from Poland if they get involved in Ukraine.

I don't have any proof of that though.

[Highlord Laan]

Some things I read make me suspect Poland has been quietly but deliberately intimidating Belarus and threatening a counter-invasion from Poland if they get involved in Ukraine.

I don't have any proof of that though.

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Aside from knowing from the get-go that CSTO was a steaming heap of bullshit, since the start of the invasion Poland has been doing the political equivalent of stripping off it's shit, throwing it's arms wide and screaming "do it you pussy!" at ruzzia.

[Adam Reynolds]

Perun has an excellent video regarding Belarus, and in a nutshell they can't really invade Ukraine even if they wanted to:

While Belarus does have plenty of hardware, they just don't have the manpower to do all that much. They could still do a lot of damage, but they just don't have the logistics to get very far or mount a major offensive.

[GuppyShark]

How do these countries have such little strategic reach? Being landlocked I guess. Australia can deploy and support troops pretty quickly but as an island nation we probably have that capability as a requirement.

[Lord Revan]

There's a matter of population size as well Australia has nearly triple the population of Belarus.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Anyone keeping track of how many missiles Russia has fired Vs remaining stocks?

[Lord Revan]

Anyone keeping track of how many missiles Russia has fired Vs remaining stocks?

In Russia maybe, here probably not as we got no idea as to what the usable stocks for Russia are as our sources are really spotty at best of times.

For all we know Russia has launched all their usable stock and what's left is unusable due to corruption.

[LadyTevar]

Anyone keeping track of how many missiles Russia has fired Vs remaining stocks?

In Russia maybe, here probably not as we got no idea as to what the usable stocks for Russia are as our sources are really spotty at best of times.

For all we know Russia has launched all their usable stock and what's left is unusable due to corruption.

It is telling that Russia is using Iranian drones. It means Russian drones are gone.

[aerius]

Russia's supposedly only had a few weeks left of ammo, missiles, drones, and other supplies for the last 6-7 months. One of these times the claims might just be right, but I ain't holding my breath.

[Dark Hellion]

Russia's supposedly only had a few weeks left of ammo, missiles, drones, and other supplies for the last 6-7 months. One of these times the claims might just be right, but I ain't holding my breath.

I generally thought that this refers to their stockpiles of their "modern" weaponry. Russia switched to using some old or outdated supplies very early on and have been buying up stock from Iran, China, North Korea, etc. They also still have production capabilities for some weapons which also helps to stretch supplies.

And this is all assuming that the several weeks assessment isn't part of a larger propaganda campaign by the West. Actual intelligence may say several months but weeks is being used in an attempt to influence Russia to conserve their most effective weaponry allowing Ukraine more time to build up countermeasures.

[Ralin]

It is telling that Russia is using Iranian drones. It means Russian drones are gone.

Or that they're using them to ease logistics while building up the supply of locally made drones, or the Iranian drones have some feature they want to take advantage of, etc.

As noted, Russia has a significant local weapons industry and significant stockpiles on top of that. They might be limited in their ability to make the best weapons, but I'd be surprised if they couldn't churn out adequate weapons more or less indefinitely.

[Lord Revan]

There's a reason why I said there's no way we can realistically say anything about the stockpiles Russia has as what info we have is filtered thru several conflicting propaganda sources with no way to know what's true or not.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It is telling that Russia is using Iranian drones. It means Russian drones are gone.

Or that they're using them to ease logistics while building up the supply of locally made drones, or the Iranian drones have some feature they want to take advantage of, etc.

As noted, Russia has a significant local weapons industry and significant stockpiles on top of that. They might be limited in their ability to make the best weapons, but I'd be surprised if they couldn't churn out adequate weapons more or less indefinitely.

Well they sure as hell can't churn out decent soldiers so it wouldn't do them much good even if they can. And it may be that the "several weeks" figure is because their stocks are being depleted at the same rate as they're producing it so they only have that much at any one time. Which does beg the question of what natural resources Russia has access to that facilitates military logistics, such as they are.

[Rogue 9]

I don't recall anyone saying Russia is going to run out of weapons anytime soon. What goes around is them running out of precision-guided munitions, which is much more believable and would in no way stop them from doing what they're doing.

[Ralin]

I don't recall anyone saying Russia is going to run out of weapons anytime soon. What goes around is them running out of precision-guided munitions, which is much more believable and would in no way stop them from doing what they're doing.

They certainly don't need to be precise for terror bombing purposes.

[bilateralrope]

I don't recall anyone saying Russia is going to run out of weapons anytime soon. What goes around is them running out of precision-guided munitions, which is much more believable and would in no way stop them from doing what they're doing.

They certainly don't need to be precise for terror bombing purposes.

Sure. But terror bombing is less effective than causing blackouts by hitting important parts of the power grid.

[Ralin]

I don't recall anyone saying Russia is going to run out of weapons anytime soon. What goes around is them running out of precision-guided munitions, which is much more believable and would in no way stop them from doing what they're doing.

They certainly don't need to be precise for terror bombing purposes.

Sure. But terror bombing is less effective than causing blackouts by hitting important parts of the power grid.

I don't think either of those things have ever been proven to be effective at accomplishing any practical purpose. Countries don't surrender because their population doesn't have electricity. If anything it makes them less inclined to do so. And its efficacy at weakening them militarily through knock-on effects (militaries don't exist in a void separate from the civilian infrastructure and economy) is disputed at best.

They are pretty good at making national leaders look and feel tough, and I think relatively dumb bombs will still do that just as well.

[bilateralrope]

They certainly don't need to be precise for terror bombing purposes.

Sure. But terror bombing is less effective than causing blackouts by hitting important parts of the power grid.

I don't think either of those things have ever been proven to be effective at accomplishing any practical purpose. Countries don't surrender because their population doesn't have electricity. If anything it makes them less inclined to do so. And its efficacy at weakening them militarily through knock-on effects (militaries don't exist in a void separate from the civilian infrastructure and economy) is disputed at best.

They are pretty good at making national leaders look and feel tough, and I think relatively dumb bombs will still do that just as well.

True. But if Russia's goal is mass civilian deaths, knocking out the power grid in winter seems more effective than terror bombing.

[Ralin]

True. But if Russia's goal is mass civilian deaths, knocking out the power grid in winter seems more effective than terror bombing.

I mean. I do think that their goal is looking tough over killing a high number of civilians.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Putin under pressure as missile strike kills 63 Russian troops in major boost for Ukraine.

HIMARS missile strikes have killed 63 Russian servicemen, Russian defence chiefs have confirmed in a huge blow to President Vladimir Putin. A statement issued by the Russian Federatin's Ministry of Defense said: "The Kyiv regime struck with six rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system at the temporary deployment point of one of the units of the Russian armed forces in the area of the settlement of Makeevka in the Donetsk People's Republic. As a result of the destruction of four rockets with a high-explosive warhead of the temporary deployment point, 63 Russian servicemen were killed", the message says. The Russian Defense Ministry said two other HIMARS rockets were shot down by Russian air defense systems.

Russia suffers one of biggest losses since war began after 63 killed in missile strike.

This is the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on Russian-controlled territory in Donetsk.

Footage shared online shows the destroyed quarters in the town of Makiivka after the New Year’s Eve explosion.

A huge building believed to be a former vocational college can be seen reduced to nothing more than smoking rubble.

Russia’s defence ministry said the missile strike killed at least 63 soldiers, in what is thought to be one of the biggest losses for Vladimir Putin’s army since the war started.

Initial reports citing a source close to the Russian-appointed leadership in the city said ‘there are fewer than 100 killed so far’.

But without claiming the missile strike, Ukraine’s defence ministry said as many as 400 Russians had been killed.

Daniil Bezsonov, a senior Russian-installed official in the Moscow-controlled parts of the Donetsk region, said the building had suffered a ‘massive blow’ from US-made rockets.

He said that according to preliminary reports, it was being used as personnel quarters.

‘There were dead and wounded, the exact number is still unknown,’ Mr Bezsonov said on Telegram. ‘The building itself was badly damaged.’

One Russian pro-war military blogger known as Rybar, who has some one million subscribers on the messaging app, said more than 100 people had been wounded in the strike and that rubble was still being cleared.

He said there had been about 600 people in the building, and that ammunition had been stored in the same facility.

[LadyTevar]

Putin under pressure as missile strike kills 63 Russian troops in major boost for Ukraine.

I saw this on BBC News as well. The analyst on BBC said that there had to be a serious number of dead/wounded, because Russia usually does their best to *NOT* list casualties. See where they only grudgingly admitted 3 deaths from the attack on the airbase last week.

The BBC quoted Igor Girkin, who was recently found guilty of shooting down Flight MH17 when he was one of the leaders of the Russian Separatists. I don't know if he's the same one quoted as "Ryber". He is very Pro-Russian, but also calls out the Russian military for any mistake.

But Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian commentator, said hundreds had been killed and wounded, although the exact number was still unknown because of the large number still missing.
The building itself was "almost completely destroyed", he said.

He added that the victims were mainly mobilised troops - that is, recent conscripts, rather than those who chose to fight. He also said ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse.
"Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever," he wrote on Telegram.