Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[LadyTevar]

Putin under pressure as missile strike kills 63 Russian troops in major boost for Ukraine.

I saw this on BBC News as well. The analyst on BBC said that there had to be a serious number of dead/wounded, because Russia usually does their best to *NOT* list casualties. See where they only grudgingly admitted 3 deaths from the attack on the airbase last week.

The BBC quoted Igor Girkin, who was recently found guilty of shooting down Flight MH17 when he was one of the leaders of the Russian Separatists. I don't know if he's the same one quoted as "Ryber". He is very Pro-Russian, but also calls out the Russian military for any mistake.

But Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian commentator, said hundreds had been killed and wounded, although the exact number was still unknown because of the large number still missing.
The building itself was "almost completely destroyed", he said.

He added that the victims were mainly mobilised troops - that is, recent conscripts, rather than those who chose to fight. He also said ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse.
"Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever," he wrote on Telegram.

[Highlord Laan]

How long to when little poot-poot calls a missile strike on vatniks engaged in hostile operations against Ukraine an act of terror against innocent whittle mother ruzzia?

[Lord Revan]

Well he's already essentially done that even if he didn't use those exact words when he said that "history and morality are on the side of Russia" or words to that effect.

[LadyTevar]

How long to when little poot-poot calls a missile strike on vatniks engaged in hostile operations against Ukraine an act of terror against innocent whittle mother ruzzia?

He's already saying it's all "The West's Fault". He's outright claimed that The West is the one that attacked RUSSIA. Because of course Ukraine is Russia, right? He's just going in to stop the Nazis and The West from taking Ukraine from Russia.

[madd0c0t0r2]

what are the odds that Crimea will be retaken in 2023?

[Crazedwraith]

I have no track record in making predictions about this (or anything) but I guess it depends a lot on how well the political will to support Ukraine and keep funnelling in Materiel holds up.

They currently seem more interested in retaking more recently captured area than Crimea.

[Crazedwraith]

double post. Ignore.

[LadyTevar]

what are the odds that Crimea will be retaken in 2023?

I've seen analysts trying to ask that question, but it's pretty iffy. IF Russia's supply issues continue. If Ukraine continues to get NATO backing. If Belarus joins in. If Ukraine is able to cut Russia supply chain to Crimea. And of course, IF Putin's still in control by year's end.

There's a whole lot of "IF"s.

[Captain Seafort]

They currently seem more interested in retaking more recently captured area than Crimea.

Back at the start of September they seemed far more interested in Kherson than Kharkiv, and at the start of June 1944 the western allies seemed far more interested in the Pas de Calais than Normandy. None of this is necessarily relevant, but it does make one wonder.

[J]

what are the odds that Crimea will be retaken in 2023?

IF the Crimea gets retaken y'all have much bigger problems to worry about than a regional war in Europe.

[LadyTevar]

what are the odds that Crimea will be retaken in 2023?

IF the Crimea gets retaken y'all have much bigger problems to worry about than a regional war in Europe.

Why do you say that?

[Lord Revan]

what are the odds that Crimea will be retaken in 2023?

IF the Crimea gets retaken y'all have much bigger problems to worry about than a regional war in Europe.

Why do you say that?

I'm guessing she's implying it will spark a nuclear war, which would be bigger problem for everyone though that depends on a) if Russia is willing to essentially commit suicide for pride b) How Crimea is retaken Russian's aren't total idiots and I suspect there's plenty in the Kremlin who'd be willing to give Ukraine back the territories Russia has gained if it mean economic concessions from West.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia out of hospital beds for wounded troops as Kremlin launches sick attack on own men.

Russia is beginning to find itself being overwhelmed by the number of wounded soldiers returning from the front as reports indicate the courty is running out of places to treat injured soldiers. Shifting the blame away from Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin is now shifting blame for the recent attacks from the man in charge to the recently deceased troops.

To cope with the numbers of maimed troops, Putin has has reportedly ordered the mass use of civilian hospitals.

This is seen as a direct consequences of his mass mobilisation just a few weeks ago when civilians were mobilised.

These troops, thrown almost immediately from civilian life into combat, are beginning to come back bloodied and battered.

Putin has now allegedly demanded from his health and defence ministries to use non-military hospitals to cope with the wounded.

The Kremlin said the aim was to commandeer beds to "provide individuals who have participated in the special military operation with in-patient medical care and rehabilitation".

The 'special military operation' is how Russia describes its illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Said decision to mobilise the non-civilian hospitals comes just days after Russia suffered one of the worst attacks by Ukraine since the war began 10 months ago.

The attack, on Makiivka on New Year's Eve, killed around 89 Russia soldiers said the Kremlin. However, Ukraine said the death toll could be as high as 400.

Regardless of the death toll, a blame game has now been engaged in by some of Putin's generals.

One Lt-Gen Sergey Sevryukov has tried to blame the victims of the attack.

He said their banned use of mobile phones made their location visible to Ukrainian intelligence which allowed them to target the barracks.

The Lt-Gen said: "A commission is working to investigate what happened.

"But even today it is clear that the main reason was personnel switching on and using mobile phones within the enemy reach zone."

He added: "This allowed the enemy to detect the personnel's coordinates for the missile strike."

Meanwhile, wives of Russian soldiers killed in the attack have begun to raise concerns after another disaster for aggressors.

Speaking to iStores independent media, the relatives said the soldiers were "turned into mincemeat" and blamed the "criminal commanders" who they say practically invited Ukraine to strike.

One said: "There are a lot of people who turned into minced meat. They were not even allowed to take the deceased men, and did not allow them to be buried.

"Many were thrown around so much they can't be put together. I know that literally they were wiping their brains off their boots."

Even those awarded by Putin have now started to criticise the Kremlin including Semyon Pegov who said their version of events was "not too convincing".

France to send ‘tank killer’ AMX-10 to Ukraine.

France is sending “light” battle tanks to Ukraine, making it the first Western country to send armoured vehicles in support of the Ukrainian army.

French President Emmanuel Macron told Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky that his government would send light AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles to help in the war against Russia, a French official said on Wednesday after a phone call between them.

“This is the first time that Western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army,” the official said.

Speaking to reporters, the official did not give any details about the volume or timing of the planned shipments but said talks would continue regarding the potential delivery of other vehicle types.

Mr Zelensky thanked Mr Macron for the announcement and said it showed the need for others to provide heavier weapons.

“This is something that sends a clear signal to all our partners - there is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with western tanks,” he said in a video address.

“We must put an end to the Russian aggression this year,” he said, adding that “modern Western armoured vehicles and Western-type tanks” were major assets that Ukraine needed.

In a statement posted on Telegram, Mr Zelensky said the two leaders had “agreed on further co-operation to significantly strengthen our air defence and other defence capabilities”. He did not give further details.

France last year supplied several Caesar howitzers to Ukraine. Mr Macron in October also said Paris would provide air defence weapons as Russia intensified missile strikes on critical infrastructure.

The French-made AMX-10 is an armed reconnaissance vehicle with high mobility, which carries four people, according to the French armed forces ministry website.

Mr Zelensky has repeatedly asked Western allies for heavier fighting vehicles such as the German-made Leopard tanks.

Proof if proof were needed that Russia has bitten off more than it can chew.

[madd0c0t0r2]

50% wheels, 50% gun. Suited for all your suburban barricade breaching needs.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

IF the Crimea gets retaken y'all have much bigger problems to worry about than a regional war in Europe.

Why do you say that?

I'm guessing she's implying it will spark a nuclear war, which would be bigger problem for everyone though that depends on a) if Russia is willing to essentially commit suicide for pride b) How Crimea is retaken Russian's aren't total idiots and I suspect there's plenty in the Kremlin who'd be willing to give Ukraine back the territories Russia has gained if it mean economic concessions from West.

B forgets that Russia is suffering the same political situation as France after Franco-Prussia... so it is likely due to this thrust for revenge that they would be willing to set everything on fire and rule over the ashes... like a certain Call of Duty character...

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Why do you say that?

I'm guessing she's implying it will spark a nuclear war, which would be bigger problem for everyone though that depends on a) if Russia is willing to essentially commit suicide for pride b) How Crimea is retaken Russian's aren't total idiots and I suspect there's plenty in the Kremlin who'd be willing to give Ukraine back the territories Russia has gained if it mean economic concessions from West.

B forgets that Russia is suffering the same political situation as France after Franco-Prussia... so it is likely due to this thrust for revenge that they would be willing to set everything on fire and rule over the ashes... like a certain Call of Duty character...

Sounds exactly like a certain StarCraft character I know of.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

I'm guessing she's implying it will spark a nuclear war, which would be bigger problem for everyone though that depends on a) if Russia is willing to essentially commit suicide for pride b) How Crimea is retaken Russian's aren't total idiots and I suspect there's plenty in the Kremlin who'd be willing to give Ukraine back the territories Russia has gained if it mean economic concessions from West.

B forgets that Russia is suffering the same political situation as France after Franco-Prussia... so it is likely due to this thrust for revenge that they would be willing to set everything on fire and rule over the ashes... like a certain Call of Duty character...

Sounds exactly like a certain StarCraft character I know of.

Yep, and that's the situation we are facing.

[madd0c0t0r2]

B forgets that Russia is suffering the same political situation as France after Franco-Prussia... so it is likely due to this thrust for revenge that they would be willing to set everything on fire and rule over the ashes... like a certain Call of Duty character...

Sounds exactly like a certain StarCraft character I know of.

Yep, and that's the situation we are facing.

Is it? I was flat out wrong about the willingness of Russia to do a crazy invasion. Am I wrong about the willingness of all of the Russian elite to attempt to burn the world down? They have lost a huge amount of military readiness credibility. I can imagine discussions about whether Nato can intercept or tank the majority of their nuclear aresenal without loosing functionality in the future world. I can possibly imagine China seeing this as good or bad for themselves.

[Lord Revan]

Well all Putin has to do is convince enough of the elite that he gets the nukes in the air, after WW3 has started it doesn't matter if most of the Russian elite didn't want to join Putin's funeral pyre and I'm pretty sure Putin thinks there isn't a way he'll survive if he'll admit defeat here.

[Ralin]

Well all Putin has to do is convince enough of the elite that he gets the nukes in the air, after WW3 has started it doesn't matter if most of the Russian elite didn't want to join Putin's funeral pyre and I'm pretty sure Putin thinks there isn't a way he'll survive if he'll admit defeat here.

Yeaaaah, but the big problem I'm seeing with that is that it doesn't seem at all obvious that Putin can't survive admitting defeat. Because for all the stories we've heard about the Russian military's blunders and corruption and lack of preparation one thing there's been a distinct lack of is any sign of Putin even starting to lose control at home. Between strong control over the mass media, a whole lot of effort put into making the general public apathetic about politics and what is by all accounts a very strong internal army/police force dedicated to dealing with protests and dissidents Putin seems to have the home front locked down pretty hard.

I don't find it at all hard to believe that Putin could survive the war ending in a defeat that gains Russia nothing or almost nothing with only a slight figleaf of denial because he's doing exactly that right now. And I would argue that there will be fewer people motivated and in a position to try to change that in a scenario where the war ends in a Russian defeat than there would be with it grinding on into a several year forever war.

[Shroom Man 777]

Just wait for the guy to die, that's the most valid strategy and a newish level of "war of attrition."

[Ralin]

Just wait for the guy to die, that's the most valid strategy and a newish level of "war of attrition."

If that's what they're aiming for wouldn't it make more sense to try to make that happen instead of waiting? Active is better than passive.

[Lord Revan]

Just wait for the guy to die, that's the most valid strategy and a newish level of "war of attrition."

If that's what they're aiming for wouldn't it make more sense to try to make that happen instead of waiting? Active is better than passive.

Well if you fail at active it could cause issues (especially if we're talking about Russian Elite and not Ukrainians), however just waiting for someone to die is foolproof with the only real downside being it might take a while, since Putin is only in his early 70s IIRC which isn't exactly ancient by modern standards.

[aerius]

Just wait for the guy to die, that's the most valid strategy and a newish level of "war of attrition."

The next guy is more likely to be a complete hardline psychopath than someone that we can reasonably deal with.

[Ralin]

Well if you fail at active it could cause issues (especially if we're talking about Russian Elite and not Ukrainians), however just waiting for someone to die is foolproof with the only real downside being it might take a while, since Putin is only in his early 70s IIRC which isn't exactly ancient by modern standards.

I was talking about the Ukranians. Not really sure what issues trying to assassinate Putin specifically could cause for them that they aren't currently dealing with.

The next guy is more likely to be a complete hardline psychopath than someone that we can reasonably deal with.

Realistically speaking* it seems like the worst case scenario there is that Russia ends up with a leader just as bad and probably less experienced/skilled/secure in his position.

*Yes I know theoretically we could end up with Nukey McLunaticson in charge.