Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Rogue 9]

Given the scale of the conflict and the size of the country, I doubt that a dozen of tanks will have a significant impact

It's 55 committed so far (ten Challengers from the UK, fourteen Leopard 2s from Germany, and thirty-one M1 Abrams from the United States). Which still isn't enough to commit to an open field battle against Russian armor, but it's more than enough to threaten chokepoints, as noted above.

[Broomstick]

For sure, Ukraine has demonstrated an awesome ability to utilize limited resources for maximum results.

[Lord Revan]

For sure, Ukraine has demonstrated an awesome ability to utilize limited resources for maximum results.

again it helps that Russians on the other seems to demonstrating the polar opposite, while they don't have unlimited resources they got greater logistical capacity and resources in theory, though in practice Russians seem only good at wasting resources for little to no gains.

[Highlord Laan]

At last, we will see the mighty Abrams in proper colors engaging the enemies it was built to destroy.

Hail the machine spirit.

[Zaune]

And at least some of the Ukrainian tank crews won't have to risk life and limb to have a brew in the field, because the Challengers come equipped with the famous Boiling Vessel.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine drinks way less tea per person than the UK does, they should assign the ones that do drink it to the Challengers

Europe’s defence giants brace for surge in orders as tanks enter the theatre in Ukraine

For the first time, Western tanks will soon face Russian forces in Europe - a deployment their designers originally envisaged when the models were developed during the Cold War.

For Kyiv, it is hoped that the extra force could help finally repel Russia's offensive.

For Europe’s arms manufacturers, success on the battlefield will be an advertisement to governments looking to bolster their own defences.

German's Rheinmetall, behind the Leopard 2, expects the real world test of its hardware will lead to a jump in sales as stocks are run down and the vehicles’ effectiveness is demonstrated.

Rheinmetall told its investors this week to expect an influx of sales, with chief executive Armin Papperger predicting his company’s sales could nearly double to €12bn within three years.

European countries will be restocking supplies after gifting armoury and weaponry to Kyiv. Stockpiles are also set to be expanded as geopolitical tensions ratchet up.

In Germany alone, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has promised a vast €100bn spending spree to beef up his country's military.

Papperger has implored Scholz to iron out the details of these plans so that Rheinmetall can decide which production lines to expand. The company has already hired 2,000 workers in anticipation of a jump in orders.

"The entire German industry is ready. The resources are there, the people are there, we also have the know-how," Papperger said at an industry event.

Arms companies across Nato are adding capacity to make weapons and ammunition, in anticipation of future sales. BAE Systems is understood to have received orders from the UK to gear up shell production, while Sweden’s Saab has received orders from Britain and Sweden for its successful NLAW tank-buster. Germany put in an $8bn order in December for 35 F-35 stealth attack warplanes made by Lockheed Martin.

At Rheinmetall, about a third of the company’s sales come from tanks and armoured vehicles and over a quarter from guns and ammunition. The rest comes from car parts and other civilian products. The tanks cost about €13m-€15m apiece with a profit margin of about 10pc.

The company also owns 55pc of a joint venture with the UK’s BAE Systems, which is to supply Boxer armoured vehicles and upgrade 148 of Britain’s Challenger 2 main battle tanks.

Rheinmetall is also involved in a joint project between France and Germany to produce a new model, known as the Main Ground Combat System, to replace the Leopard 2 and the Leclerc. Production is hoped to start in 2035.

The Leopard 2 is an extraordinary success story, according to Yohann Michel, a research analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

While dwarfed in sheer number by the Russian T-72 and T-90, which were exported to India, it is still the most popular tank in Europe, he said.

Western made tanks offer a greater chance of getting off the all-important first shot in a tank battle, says Ed Arnold, a research fellow in European security at RUSI, thanks to their thermal sights.

Leopards, French Leclercs and other newer tanks have better armour and better designs than Russian alternatives, says Arnold, meaning they are more likely to avoid the ammunition explosions which plagued Russian models.

The Leopard is “the lion in your pack”, helping punch through in offensives against other tanks, says Arnold.

The Leopard 2 has seen action before, being deployed in Kosovo, in Afghanistan and Syria, but not in Europe against Russia, the task it was designed for.

The Leopard 2, Leclerc, Challenger 2 and M1 Abrams were all designed at various stages of the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was seen as the main enemy of Western allies. France is yet to offer the Leclerc but Macron is under pressure to do so.

Rheinmetall, which was approached for comment, said this week it could deliver 139 Leopard tanks to Ukraine if needed, including 51 of the newest versions in the next year and 88 older Mark-1 tanks.

Thousands of Leopard 2s are used throughout Europe, with customers including Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Norway, Portugal, Switzerland and Spain.

Buyers also include former Warsaw Pact members such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Germany, Turkey, Spain and Greece are the biggest owners, each with more than 300.

Germany’s automotive prowess, combined with the long borders and the nation’s military history has meant it has focused on tanks, says Arnold. Dusseldorf-based Rheinmetall has a 133-year-old history as an arms maker.

The Leopard is quite easy to maintain, especially compared to the Challenger 2, which uses both metric or imperial components, and the American Abrams, which is driven by a gas turbine engine.

Turbine engines, which have much in common with a jet engine, offer more power and can be operated from a range of fuels, but are much harder to fix than the diesel-powered Leopard.

The deal to send Leopard 2s to Ukraine has reportedly spurred Kyiv to request warplanes, such as the single-engine US F-16, to bolster its ageing fleet of Soviet-era jets.

Yuriy Sak, who advises Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, told Reuters that the country wants fourth-generation fighters such as the Eurofighter Typhoon flown by the Royal Air Force and Luftwaffe and twin-engine F-18.

Western officials have been cautious about sending aircraft and weaponry that could be seen as offensive, and the move would require a shift in thinking from Nato members over the risk of escalating the conflict, with particular regard to the use of nuclear weapons.

Chancellor Scholz has ruled them out for the time being. Politicians are likely to gauge first how President Vladimir Putin responds to dozens of tanks heading his way before making a decision on jets.

The other industrial challenge is replacing any jets if they are sent to Ukraine: while Rheinmetall can build a Leopard per week, most aircraft take many months to build.

As the politicians watch Putin and chew over the question of jets, Rheinmetall will be watching how its tanks perform under fire, says Arnold.

“I'm pretty certain that people will be very keenly interested in the performance,” he says.

Rule of acquisition #34- war is good for business.

[PainRack]

But the "Zporizhzhia Zombie" doesn't sound good. Especially since BBC quoted a Russian source claiming 4 out of 5 prisoner conscripts are KIA/MIA so far. I hope the MIA are those who've escaped or turned themselves over to Ukraine. Otherwise there's a sizable number of Russian criminals running around Ukraine, each them with nothing to lose.

The latest I heard/read was that some of the human-wave attacks of Wagnerites against Ukrainians were having 80% casualties for the first wave, which are typically the convicts and others considered "expendable" by those in charge. Which is horrific. Both that Wagner thinks that's acceptable losses even for cannon fodder, and for what is driving mean to perform such attacks since they must know odds are they won't survive.

I'm assuming a sizable percentage of the MIA's for Wagner convict-troops are actually "blow to bits" and otherwise unrecovered/unidentifiable dead, because there are also reports that recovery of wounded, much less deceased, isn't permitted until cover of darkness.

My understanding is that Wagner isn't doing human wave tactics insofar as the new prison conscripts simply aren't trained enough to execute maneveurs.

So instead, they letting them blunder their way in an attack, instead using their veterans as the reserves to exploit it..

The same seems to apply to the Russian army, where the premium is on force preservation of the veterans, sending in recruits to attack instead


The end result looks like human wave attacks but well, it's literally just untrained/incompetent soldiers trying to attack and doing so badly.


It's kinda insane since at this point, any sane commander would be trying to hold the line, training the new soldiers so they can bulk up their army further, instead, Russia is acting like they have countless reserves to expend......

Any combat boost from the first mobilisation was bought with huge cost in lives and the Russians are trying to spend that currency now, before the UA expands for the summer offensive.


Which to me just makes it even more imperative that we actually supply and arm the Ukranians in larger numbers. The Ukranians are asking for hundred tanks min, with IFV and artillery, to build up the 2-3 divisions they want as the bare min to conduct a spring/ summer offensive.

No idea if it's too late to equip the Airforce but well......

[The_Saint]

Also worth noting with regard to Russian KIA/MIA. Under the current scheme the Russian government doesn't pay death benefits while a soldier is listed as MIA and their pay is suspended whereas they [are supposed to] pay out death benefits if listed as KIA.
There a numerous recorded incidents where Russian troops known to have been killed are left on MIA lists and in some cases reported as "off on secret mission status" to families even though other survivors reliably reported watching the bodies go into mass graves.

[LadyTevar]

Also worth noting with regard to Russian KIA/MIA. Under the current scheme the Russian government doesn't pay death benefits while a soldier is listed as MIA and their pay is suspended whereas they [are supposed to] pay out death benefits if listed as KIA.
There a numerous recorded incidents where Russian troops known to have been killed are left on MIA lists and in some cases reported as "off on secret mission status" to families even though other survivors reliably reported watching the bodies go into mass graves.

I'm sickened... but not surprised.

[Solauren]

Also worth noting with regard to Russian KIA/MIA. Under the current scheme the Russian government doesn't pay death benefits while a soldier is listed as MIA and their pay is suspended whereas they [are supposed to] pay out death benefits if listed as KIA.
There a numerous recorded incidents where Russian troops known to have been killed are left on MIA lists and in some cases reported as "off on secret mission status" to families even though other survivors reliably reported watching the bodies go into mass graves.

I'm sickened... but not surprised.

I'm pretty sure it's 'Evil Overlord 101'

[LadyTevar]

So, top news today:

Putin: "80 yeas and we're facing German Tanks Again!" from Volvogrod/Stanlingrad

"Those who hope to defeat Russia on the battlefield do not understand, it seems, that a modern war with Russia will be very different for them," the 70-year-old leader said. "We are not sending our tanks to their borders, but we have the means to respond. It won't be limited to the use of armoured hardware. Everyone must understand this."

Yep, he's hinting at Nukes again.

An interview with the Russian Defector who escaped to Finland. "Our Troops Tortured Ukrainians"

"One of them admitted to being a sniper. On hearing this, the Russian colonel lost his mind. He hit him, he pulled the Ukrainian's trousers down and asked if he was married.
"'Yes,' the prisoner replied. 'Then someone bring me a mop,' said the colonel. 'We'll turn you into a girl and send your wife the video.'"

It's mostly confirmation of things we already knew were happening. Good to have a witness willing to talk if we ever get the chance for a Nuremburg Trial.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Germany approves 88 Leopard tanks for Ukraine

Rheinmetall, the German arms manufacturer, needed the approval to refurbish and sell 88 of the older Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

The vehicles, which first entered into service in 1965 and are no longer manufactured, will come on top of the dozens of Leopard 2s being shipped to Ukraine in the coming months.

“I can confirm that an export license has been issued,” German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said on Friday.

Berlin is also considering plans to buy back 15 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Qatar, which were purchased by Doha to secure its World Cup stadiums, in order to deliver them to Ukraine.

[Highlord Laan]

Yep, he's hinting at Nukes again.

At this point, I want Biden to call poot-poot a pussy and dare him to try something.

[Zaune]

At this point, I want Biden to call poot-poot a pussy and dare him to try something.

I bloody don't. He might actually do it.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Best thing they can do whenever Putin makes such threats is what they've been doing already- completely ignoring them.

[Highlord Laan]

At this point, I want Biden to call poot-poot a pussy and dare him to try something.

I bloody don't. He might actually do it.

"Pull the fucking trigger you little pansy. I want to see if your shit even still works."

[Batman]

Yes, it'd be INSANE for him to try it, but the man apparently IS insane. It'd mean the end of Russia but that's cold comfort to all the people his remaining working nukes kill or otherwise ruin the lives of.

[Solauren]

The only condition I'd want someone calling Putin to use Nukes if if the CIA confirmed they'd done something so that all Russian nuke weapons will detonate on the launch pad/inside the silo. And even at that, I'd rather the missiles ENGINES detonate and not the nuclear payload.

[Batman]

The engines would be easier at that. Rockets are rather explodey by nature. Nukes generally have to be 'forced' to go off.

[Lord Revan]

All you really need to have the engines/fuel to explode is have the silo doors not open or open too slowly, those missiles aren't really made to ram themselves thru solid metal and when rockets fail to launch they tend to do so in rather explosive fashion.

That said I would also wish the Poseidon torps would explode (preferbly in non-nuclear way) in their launch tubes in a way that either destroyed the subs they're launched from (in shallow waters so the crew can bail out) or damages them so badly they'll be out of commission for the foreseeable future.

[bilateralrope]

That depends on how the silo doors are designed to open. I've heard of US silos that have explosives intended to blow the doors off, even if there is a lot of debris on them. If Russian silos are built like that, opening slowly isn't an option.

Though the main factors in deciding how to prevent those nukes launching are probably going to be how vulnerable they are to each attack method and how easily Russia would notice the results of said attack.

[LadyTevar]

That depends on how the silo doors are designed to open. I've heard of US silos that have explosives intended to blow the doors off, even if there is a lot of debris on them. If Russian silos are built like that, opening slowly isn't an option.

Though the main factors in deciding how to prevent those nukes launching are probably going to be how vulnerable they are to each attack method and how easily Russia would notice the results of said attack.

At this point I would assume the silos are being watched very carefully. I would not be surprised if Putin was quietly checking on them to make sure they were viable.

[Solauren]

That depends on how the silo doors are designed to open. I've heard of US silos that have explosives intended to blow the doors off, even if there is a lot of debris on them. If Russian silos are built like that, opening slowly isn't an option.

Though the main factors in deciding how to prevent those nukes launching are probably going to be how vulnerable they are to each attack method and how easily Russia would notice the results of said attack.

At this point I would assume the silos are being watched very carefully. I would not be surprised if Putin was quietly checking on them to make sure they were viable.

If they've been as maintained as well as the Russian army has, he's in for a rather rude surprise.

'What do you mean the explosives that open the silo doors have been replaced by silly putty? Oh look, this one has a Charlie Brown comic...."

[bilateralrope]

That depends on how the silo doors are designed to open. I've heard of US silos that have explosives intended to blow the doors off, even if there is a lot of debris on them. If Russian silos are built like that, opening slowly isn't an option.

Though the main factors in deciding how to prevent those nukes launching are probably going to be how vulnerable they are to each attack method and how easily Russia would notice the results of said attack.

At this point I would assume the silos are being watched very carefully. I would not be surprised if Putin was quietly checking on them to make sure they were viable.

I wonder how much effort he has gone through to make sure whoever he gets to check the silos hasn't been bribed to look the other way by someone who will get in trouble if the inspector reports bits missing.

[Lord Revan]

That depends on how the silo doors are designed to open. I've heard of US silos that have explosives intended to blow the doors off, even if there is a lot of debris on them. If Russian silos are built like that, opening slowly isn't an option.

Though the main factors in deciding how to prevent those nukes launching are probably going to be how vulnerable they are to each attack method and how easily Russia would notice the results of said attack.

At this point I would assume the silos are being watched very carefully. I would not be surprised if Putin was quietly checking on them to make sure they were viable.

I wonder how much effort he has gone through to make sure whoever he gets to check the silos hasn't been bribed to look the other way by someone who will get in trouble if the inspector reports bits missing.

Yeah that's the issue unless Putin personally inspects those silos (and he has way too much to do to have time for that) he can't be certain of the accuracy of those reports they could be accurate or they could be total BS with inspectors having ran away with the money instead of doing their jobs.