Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Solauren]

And when they don't have enough ammo they are still capable of beating to death said commanders with the butts of their rifles, or, in one alleged case, shovels.

Fists, blunt objects including mess kits, debris, garrot them using their shoelaces, lots of options.

[LadyTevar]

Russia is cutting their oil production by 500000barrels /day... (~30 Million dollars on revenue/day, or 10 billion per year.)

After the price cap and the EU ban on Russian oil imports, the ban on refined petroproducts was introduced. Russia sold about 75% of said product to Europe. Since these things are usually very specific, and pricy, they can't find any customers copatible or willing to pay the premium over simply importing crude. So they will shut down refineries and reduce oil production.

Not only will this send shockwaves down the line via layoffs, lost purchase power and tax revenue, it will most likely have more dire repercussions for the oil felds. Russia has no real storage, and what they have is already maxxed out - since they can't simply burn that kind of volumes, they need to reduce flow from the oil fields. Problem is that once you open up an oil well, you really do not want to mess with the flow it puts out - constricting that flow might cause the oil to find a different route when pressure in the well rises, which can in turn cause the well to go dry.

Since they lost all access to western experts and technology (most of these wells were handled by western companies which have pulled out since the war started), it is very unlikely that they can safely restict flow. Also, some of their wells are located in remote permafrost areas of Siberia - restricting those might cause a complete collapse of the flow, which would mean they pretty much have to redrill these wells in order to take up production, again. I heard numbers of a decade or so when people talk about how long it would take to get the oil fields back up if that should happen. And that means - if western companies get in and start working on it, again. Russia itself might conpletely lack the technology to do so, by now, and would first need to create the capabilities before even starting.

Sounds like the Sanctions are doing their job. I'm sorry it's going to hurt innocent Russian workers.

[Ralin]

So, possibly a stupid question, if cutting the flow of oil pumped is potentially harmful to their future ability to pump more oil and they don't have the capacity to store anymore excess oil wouldn't it make sense in economic terms to keep pumping the oil and then just burn it?

I'm sure there would be environmental effects, but that seems like it would be low on the priorities list.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Russia is cutting their oil production by 500000barrels /day... (~30 Million dollars on revenue/day, or 10 billion per year.)

After the price cap and the EU ban on Russian oil imports, the ban on refined petroproducts was introduced. Russia sold about 75% of said product to Europe. Since these things are usually very specific, and pricy, they can't find any customers copatible or willing to pay the premium over simply importing crude. So they will shut down refineries and reduce oil production.

Not only will this send shockwaves down the line via layoffs, lost purchase power and tax revenue, it will most likely have more dire repercussions for the oil felds. Russia has no real storage, and what they have is already maxxed out - since they can't simply burn that kind of volumes, they need to reduce flow from the oil fields. Problem is that once you open up an oil well, you really do not want to mess with the flow it puts out - constricting that flow might cause the oil to find a different route when pressure in the well rises, which can in turn cause the well to go dry.

Since they lost all access to western experts and technology (most of these wells were handled by western companies which have pulled out since the war started), it is very unlikely that they can safely restict flow. Also, some of their wells are located in remote permafrost areas of Siberia - restricting those might cause a complete collapse of the flow, which would mean they pretty much have to redrill these wells in order to take up production, again. I heard numbers of a decade or so when people talk about how long it would take to get the oil fields back up if that should happen. And that means - if western companies get in and start working on it, again. Russia itself might conpletely lack the technology to do so, by now, and would first need to create the capabilities before even starting.

Sounds like the Sanctions are doing their job. I'm sorry it's going to hurt innocent Russian workers.

I note that at one point Russia was sending the UK 25% of the usual amount of oil, but at 4x the usual price. We were sending them the same amount of money. When you see news like this, always check what the prices mean.

[LaCroix]

So, possibly a stupid question, if cutting the flow of oil pumped is potentially harmful to their future ability to pump more oil and they don't have the capacity to store anymore excess oil wouldn't it make sense in economic terms to keep pumping the oil and then just burn it?

I'm sure there would be environmental effects, but that seems like it would be low on the priorities list.

half a million BARRELS of oil per day... that's a rough 75 million liters of crude oil. PER DAY.

roughly 1.6 barrels is what it needs to make 1MWh of electricity - so it is about 312 GWh of energy per day...

you can't just burn that much - literally physically impossible unless you build an actual facility to divide that pipeline stream up into multiple burning facilities. You just can't.

[LaCroix]

The people counting losses for the russians are desperatly calling for new hires, they just can't keep up with the work counting the corpses on the footage.

News indicate that the offensive ran straight into a brick wall, and they are pretty much gaining nothing, or square feet per soldier killed. Most places, literally just enough ground to bury their dead.

In Vuledar alone, there there are literally parade lines of tanks, as they continue to move in in line formation along roads, past the already taken out wrecks. Reports meintion dozens of losses, up to a hundred, not even counting armored troop carriers. they can't keep up with counting, tbh, as the russians are literally going for a reenactment of 'Lemmings' vs 'WORMS!'

Troops are starting to revolt as they are getting sent to storm fortified positions with artillery and armored support, with no armor support on their sides, no air cover and their own artillery literally only firing a dozend rounds roughly towards the enemy and then packing up and retreating, telling the units to keep going. They then wait for the troops to be eradicated by enemy fire and try to use that info to target the enemy assets when they send the next batallion in. Since russian artillery is famous for not aiming, but saturation fire, their success rate with only firing a few shells is pretty much zero, while counter battery fire is pretty success full, destroying up to two dozen russian artillery pieces (barrel and missile, combined) per day.

So they are loosing about a batallion of armored and artillery, each, a day, and roughly 2 for infantry (factoring in the wounded - but that might add a third battalion, tbh...) That's not even a meat grinder, anymore - this is industrial suicide.

Prgoshin has been on air telling that a month for Donbas is stupid, they need about 2 years to capture it at the current pace - 3 to 4 year to reach the Djnepr. So he is estimating advance speed of 50km/year. This lead to a few things happening.

Prigoshin is now a persona non grata - even mentioning him in news or on air is now... frowned upon.
Wagner is no longer allowed to recruit prisoners. The case reviews to pressure people into joining have been stopped.
Yay!

Instead, officials are now pardoning prisoners. On the way out, they are handed their posessions, and a conscription letter...
Shucks...

[Dominus Atheos]

The people counting losses for the russians are desperatly calling for new hires, they just can't keep up with the work counting the corpses on the footage.

News indicate that the offensive ran straight into a brick wall, and they are pretty much gaining nothing, or square feet per soldier killed. Most places, literally just enough ground to bury their dead.

In Vuledar alone, there there are literally parade lines of tanks, as they continue to move in in line formation along roads, past the already taken out wrecks. Reports meintion dozens of losses, up to a hundred, not even counting armored troop carriers. they can't keep up with counting, tbh, as the russians are literally going for a reenactment of 'Lemmings' vs 'WORMS!'

Troops are starting to revolt as they are getting sent to storm fortified positions with artillery and armored support, with no armor support on their sides, no air cover and their own artillery literally only firing a dozend rounds roughly towards the enemy and then packing up and retreating, telling the units to keep going. They then wait for the troops to be eradicated by enemy fire and try to use that info to target the enemy assets when they send the next batallion in. Since russian artillery is famous for not aiming, but saturation fire, their success rate with only firing a few shells is pretty much zero, while counter battery fire is pretty success full, destroying up to two dozen russian artillery pieces (barrel and missile, combined) per day.

So they are loosing about a batallion of armored and artillery, each, a day, and roughly 2 for infantry (factoring in the wounded - but that might add a third battalion, tbh...) That's not even a meat grinder, anymore - this is industrial suicide.

Ukrainian official numbers are claiming over 1140 dead russians yesterday.



Earlier in the week they reported another 1000 casualties and 42 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed. Reported on the Ukraine military's facebook page of course, because the 21st century is weird.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u ... oBAmH7Q3vl

[Crazedwraith]

How reliable are Ukrainian numbers? Anyone involved in a war traditionally has a tendency to inflate numbers accidentally.

[Jub]

How reliable are Ukrainian numbers? Anyone involved in a war traditionally has a tendency to inflate numbers accidentally.

They tend to be close-ish to third party open sourced numbers, but generally armies will over count kills and third parties will under count.

[Broomstick]

So, possibly a stupid question, if cutting the flow of oil pumped is potentially harmful to their future ability to pump more oil and they don't have the capacity to store anymore excess oil wouldn't it make sense in economic terms to keep pumping the oil and then just burn it?

I'm sure there would be environmental effects, but that seems like it would be low on the priorities list.

Given the call-ups and press-ganging "partial mobilizations" they may also be facing a lack of warm bodies to keep the pumps running.

[LaCroix]

Ukraine tries to underreport russian casualties - if it is not definitely a corpse on the footage, they do not count them.
So if they can still run away or are carried off and die later, they will not be in this numbers - so by all means, the number is pretty sure underreported.

For the same reason they do not count wounded - because they can't tell. But in most conflicts the "traditional" estimate is about 2-3 times the number of dead - and supported by reports that russian side hospitals are filled like tuna cans, it is also most likely conservative.

There are new rumors that Prighosin migt not see a Hague trieal, but face consequences in Russia for trying to usurp power... It seems he tried (along with Kadirov) to take over partial or complete power, but the story is still eveolving (or being made up, still, it IS Russia, after all...).

Read - he got to famous, Putin doesn't share...

[EnterpriseSovereign]

How reliable are Ukrainian numbers? Anyone involved in a war traditionally has a tendency to inflate numbers accidentally.

They tend to be close-ish to third party open sourced numbers, but generally armies will over count kills and third parties will under count.

For propaganda purposes, armies tend to exaggerate enemy casualties and understate their own. It seems that Putin's been getting these distorted figures reported to him by his own underlings instead of the actual scale of the bloodbath. At this rate of losses, all the Ukrainians have to do is hold fast and the Russians will burn themselves out. It's basically the battlefield equivalent of a Rope-a-dope.

[Mr Bean]

How reliable are Ukrainian numbers? Anyone involved in a war traditionally has a tendency to inflate numbers accidentally.

They tend to be close-ish to third party open sourced numbers, but generally armies will over count kills and third parties will under count.

For propaganda purposes, armies tend to exaggerate enemy casualties and understate their own. It seems that Putin's been getting these distorted figures reported to him by his own underlings instead of the actual scale of the bloodbath. At this rate of losses, all the Ukrainians have to do is hold fast and the Russians will burn themselves out. It's basically the battlefield equivalent of a Rope-a-dope.

Normally yes but the Ukrainian military is in an odd situation where under reporting of Russian causalities is to their benefit. It lets to situations such as when the Vocational school in Makiivka that was turned into an RU barracks and ammo storage facility (Genius planning that) went boom.

Ukrainian army reports said 400 casualties plus hundreds wounded
Russia claimed 63 dead then upped that to 89 dead plus some wounded
Leaked intercepts weeks later painted the figure at 600+ dead plus an unknown number of wounded

Thus follows the pattern as far as we can tell Ukraine reports 90%-110% of what their best guess is while Russian reports 10%-20% of what actually happened. Meanwhile Ukraine reports next to nothing of their own losses but acknowledges individual soldiers deaths while Russian reports 200%-500% of what they think happened. There are deviations of course but it seems the rule of thumb is if Ukraine kills ten Russians the report 9 dead Russians while if Russian kills ten Ukrainians they report 20-30 dead Ukrainians.

In an odd way it makes the Russian clams that much more silly when 50 men die in a single Wagner charge and Ukraine says 47 people die and Russia says only 10 people died and they killed 50 Ukrainians

[Lord Revan]

Ukrainians also know that if they were be caught on straight up lie it would hurt or even stop support from outside, so they avoid telling actual lies favoring partial truths instead.

Russia on the other hand seems to lie every time they say something that has cost them good chunk of the support they might have had.

[LaCroix]

It might be that this is the first virtually truthful war reporting we withness on the ukrainian side.

First - against russia, the propaganda pretty much writes itself, you just have to select the warcrime or stupid waste of lives of the day.
Second - if they overclam kills, it does not seem as if they need help, so they might get less.
Third - Same if they underreport - they would get pressed to make peace if seems they just can't win.
Fourth - It seems that there has been like 40 years of footage combined online of the last year of war - not counting external surveillance and not published military footage. Just helmet cams, drone cams and people with phones. Nothing stays hidden. And getting caught in a lie would cost them the moral high ground.

All in all - just reporting the truth is the least bad option for Ukraine.

[LaCroix]

Thus follows the pattern as far as we can tell Ukraine reports 90%-110% of what their best guess is while Russian reports 10%-20% of what actually happened. Meanwhile Ukraine reports next to nothing of their own losses but acknowledges individual soldiers deaths while Russian reports 200%-500% of what they think happened.

Yeah - russia reported:

a himars being destroyed by a missile hitting the 6th floor of a residential building
Us Bradleys being destroyed in combat when they had not even been loaded onto ships, yet.
Hundreds of ukrainian fighters killed after hitting a random large building - as if simply estimating that each m² levelled means a soldier or something...


On the frontline - Ukraine is preparing to fall back from Bakhmut. Most likely to the western half, using the river as a barrier.
The bridge over the river to the south was already demolished (unclear if the Russians did them a favor), it was supposed to be blown up anyway to prevent russians using it to cross.

They retreated from Krasna hora to evade encirclement, but not before marking the GPS coords of each remaining building and sending them to the artillery - during the night, they waited until thermal imaging confirmed all the Russians seeking shelter from the cold, and then helped by sending mobile heat generators.

So, the Bakhmut frotline will be straightened out during the next week in a retreating battle, trying to goad the russians to throw even more material into the killbox, pulling reserves for other offensives into what they hope to be the much needed frontline collapse. All they will get is the east of town that they flattened, with mines and traps in every house and GPS addresses pre-fed to the waiting artillery.

[LadyTevar]

On the frontline - Ukraine is preparing to fall back from Bakhmut. Most likely to the western half, using the river as a barrier.
The bridge over the river to the south was already demolished (unclear if the Russians did them a favor), it was supposed to be blown up anyway to prevent russians using it to cross.

They retreated from Krasna hora to evade encirclement, but not before marking the GPS coords of each remaining building and sending them to the artillery - during the night, they waited until thermal imaging confirmed all the Russians seeking shelter from the cold, and then helped by sending mobile heat generators.

So, the Bakhmut frotline will be straightened out during the next week in a retreating battle, trying to goad the russians to throw even more material into the killbox, pulling reserves for other offensives into what they hope to be the much needed frontline collapse. All they will get is the east of town that they flattened, with mines and traps in every house and GPS addresses pre-fed to the waiting artillery.

Ukraine is fighting SMART. That's probably the biggest advantage they have over Russia, which seems to get more stupid every week.

[Broomstick]

For propaganda purposes, armies tend to exaggerate enemy casualties and understate their own. It seems that Putin's been getting these distorted figures reported to him by his own underlings instead of the actual scale of the bloodbath. At this rate of losses, all the Ukrainians have to do is hold fast and the Russians will burn themselves out. It's basically the battlefield equivalent of a Rope-a-dope.

It's also a sad illustration of the horrors of war.

Wave after wave of humans engaging in suicidal tactics because if they don't they will be shot, so their only hope of survival is running into minefields or enemy fire. And sure, the Ukrainians can keep mowing them down but that sort of carnage is corrosive to any feeling soul, and the smell of decaying meat (when the corpses warm up) will be nauseating and inescapable. The Ukrainians really have no choice - if they don't kill the oncoming Russians those soldiers will harm them and theirs.

What a sad waste of human lives. Pointless, futile, and unnecessary. All for the ego of someone who will never be anywhere near the killing fields.

[LadyTevar]

US Warns DUAL Citizens could face Russian Conscription

The US has warned its citizens to leave Russia immediately or risk wrongful detention or conscription to fight in Ukraine.

In a new travel warning, the State Department said Russia may refuse to acknowledge US-Russian dual citizenship.

The warning added that US citizens had already "been interrogated without cause and threatened".

Russian officials have downplayed the updated travel advisory.

It is unclear how many US citizens are travelling or living in Russia and a State Department spokesperson told the BBC that it does not track the travel of US citizens abroad.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, several thousand Americans reportedly fled the country.

In its newly updated travel warning, the State Department said those still in Russia face the potential for "harassment and singling out".

Dual citizens also face the prospect of being conscripted as part of a wider Russia military mobilisation to support operations in Ukraine, it said.

"Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals' US citizenship, deny their access to US consular assistance, subject them to mobilisation, prevent their departure from Russia, and/or conscript them," the warning reads.

A number of US citizens - including former and current government personnel and private business people - have already been taken into custody, interrogated and harassed, according to the State Department.

"Russian security services may fail to notify the US Embassy of the detention of a US citizen and unreasonably delay US consular assistance," the warning reads. "Russian security services are increasing the arbitrary enforcement of local laws to target foreign and international organisations they consider 'undesirable'."

In a statement quoted by Russian news agency TASS, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the US had issued similar warnings "many times".

"This is not the first time we have heard this," he said.

The last US warning for its citizens to leave came in September, when Russian authorities announced a partial mobilisation of military reservists.

Mr Peskov also said that any dual US-Russian citizens "are primarily Russian citizens, regardless of what citizenship they have".

Besides Russia, the State Department has "do not travel" advisories for 18 other countries including Afghanistan, Syria, Haiti, North Korea, Somalia, Ukraine and Yemen.

[bilateralrope]

Ukraine is fighting SMART. That's probably the biggest advantage they have over Russia, which seems to get more stupid every week.

That seems to be what happens when you send in soldiers who don't want to be there. Russia is limited to tactics that they can force their conscripts to follow.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

For propaganda purposes, armies tend to exaggerate enemy casualties and understate their own. It seems that Putin's been getting these distorted figures reported to him by his own underlings instead of the actual scale of the bloodbath. At this rate of losses, all the Ukrainians have to do is hold fast and the Russians will burn themselves out. It's basically the battlefield equivalent of a Rope-a-dope.

It's also a sad illustration of the horrors of war.

Wave after wave of humans engaging in suicidal tactics because if they don't they will be shot, so their only hope of survival is running into minefields or enemy fire. And sure, the Ukrainians can keep mowing them down but that sort of carnage is corrosive to any feeling soul, and the smell of decaying meat (when the corpses warm up) will be nauseating and inescapable. The Ukrainians really have no choice - if they don't kill the oncoming Russians those soldiers will harm them and theirs.

What a sad waste of human lives. Pointless, futile, and unnecessary. All for the ego of someone who will never be anywhere near the killing fields.

Ukraine 'using more munitions than West can supply'

Ukraine is expending more ammunition than Western governments can supply it, Nato’s top official has said as he warned the alliance is in an arms race against Russia.

The Nato secretary-general said on Monday Russia had already started its long-expected offensive in eastern Ukraine as the Kremlin hopes to seize the initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion.

“I think the reality is that we have seen the start already… sending thousands and thousands of more troops,” Mr Stoltenberg told reporters at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.

“It is clear that we are in the race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition . . . must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.”

“A war of attrition becomes a battle of logistics,” he added. “Yes, we have a challenge. Yes we have a problem . . . but we have a strategy to tackle that.”

Ukrainian forces are estimated to be firing around 6,000 artillery rounds every day, compared to the 20,000 fired by Russia.

Mr Stoltenberg warned: “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain.”

When Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, meets his Nato counterparts on Tuesday, he will demand they significantly step up donations of artillery shells to bolster Kyiv's forces defences.

But waiting times for some large-calibre ammunition have increased to 28 months from 12 months, Mr Stoltenberg said.

“We are not just sitting there idle and doing nothing . . . The industry has the capability to increase production in the short term,” he added. “You can have more shifts, you can work weekends.

“We need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity.”

Western officials have repeatedly warned the outcome of the war in Ukraine would rely on the West's ability to supply Ukraine with enough ammunition.

Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to Nato, said allies “need to move things as fast as possible into their hands as they defend their territory”.

Ukraine is certainly making every shot count, in the meantime the main battle tanks can't arrive soon enough.

[Marko Dash]

Hopefully these are the battles that will break the invasion, because from everything I've heard THIS is the attack Russia's been building up to for the last few months, and it's currently falling flat on its face.

[Ralin]

The Ukrainians really have no choice - if they don't kill the oncoming Russians those soldiers will harm them and theirs.

Seems a bit odd that the Ukranian government hasn't pushed a "Surrender and we'll give you amnesty and arrange for you not to have to go back home" message. Can't imagine there aren't a fair number of Russian soldiers who would jump at that if they had the chance.

[bilateralrope]

The Ukrainians really have no choice - if they don't kill the oncoming Russians those soldiers will harm them and theirs.

Seems a bit odd that the Ukranian government hasn't pushed a "Surrender and we'll give you amnesty and arrange for you not to have to go back home" message. Can't imagine there aren't a fair number of Russian soldiers who would jump at that if they had the chance.

Getting that message past Russian censorship might be difficult. Though they have released instructions on how to surrender to a drone.

What do we know about how Ukraine is treating POWs ?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The Ukrainians really have no choice - if they don't kill the oncoming Russians those soldiers will harm them and theirs.

Seems a bit odd that the Ukranian government hasn't pushed a "Surrender and we'll give you amnesty and arrange for you not to have to go back home" message. Can't imagine there aren't a fair number of Russian soldiers who would jump at that if they had the chance.

Getting that message past Russian censorship might be difficult. Though they have released instructions on how to surrender to a drone.

What do we know about how Ukraine is treating POWs ?

Ukraine has been doing that online, as you say Russia is blocking access to the website. Mind you, Ukraine could do it the old-fashioned way by using their artillery to scatter some leaflets. Since all the information available says Russian morale is already at rock bottom it stands a better chance.