Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[EnterpriseSovereign]

‘Siberia will be free’: Russian regions vote in unauthorised independence referendums

‘Moscow takes a lot of resources from Siberia, and spends the money on its own needs and wars of aggression,’ said one secessionist leader

Russians began voting in unauthorised independence referendums in five regions of the country on Thursday, as part of a campaign to promote secession from Moscow’s rule.

The online vote organised by umbrella group the Post-Russia Forum covers Siberia, the Urals, Kaliningrad, Krasnodar and Ingria.

The referendums are not binding, and may be illegal under a law against challenging Russia’s “territorial integrity”. But more than 130,000 votes were recorded on the first day of voting, which remains open until 28 February.

Stanislav Pavlovsky-Suslov, of the Committee of the Independent Confederation of Siberia, said he was confident of a “yes” vote that would strengthen the campaign.

“The results will allow us to understand whether people in Siberia… want to be free from Moscow’s influence,” he told i.

“Moscow takes a lot of resources from Siberia and spends the money not on the development of Siberia, but on its own needs and wars of aggression,” he said, adding: “Siberia will be free.”

The organisers also have plans for referendums in several more territories, which they will supplement with “information work” and other tactics. They could not provide any more details, citing security reasons.

Independence movements have grown in several regions of Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, with disproportionate death tolls in the provinces and the impact of sanctions adding to pre-existing grievances over a lack of autonomy and perceived exploitation.

In May 2022, representatives of six provinces united to form the League of Free Nations, with the aim of seeking “the collapse of the Russian Federation and the creation of new states on its ruins”.

But while those provinces have long-established campaigns for self-determination, and in most cases a single, predominant ethnic group, the Post-Russian Forum is seeking independence for larger, more diverse areas without a common identity.

In this context, the referendums help to build momentum and normalise the idea of secession, said Dr Alexander Etkind, a professor of international relations at the Central European University in Vienna.

“These polls have no legal power, but they are timely and effective PR campaigns that promote the project of the future independence of the relevant regions,” he said.

But while a potential break up of Russia has gained traction among foreign policy analysts during the war, there are also concerns that attempts to divide Russia could lead to bloody conflict, and insecurity around its nuclear arsenal.

Dr Alexander Motyl, a professor of Russian and Soviet history at Rutgers University in the US, suggests the domestic damage caused by war in Ukraine could bring that prospect closer.

“Russia could descend into civil war, not because of the (regional independence movements), but because Putin’s war will have debilitated it and his regime,” he said.

And so it begins.

[Broomstick]

Weren't the bulk of the kids evacuated from the Donbas region, which had been at low key war with Ukraine since 2014? Their parent's tended to be russian speaking, east facing groups, and did legit see it as sending their children somewhere safer from war and from the west.

Some, maybe.

But you shouldn't assume someone from Eastern Ukraine whose native language is Russia is necessarily pro-Russian. President Zelenskyy meets that criteria and it's safe to say he is NOT pro-Russian or pro-Putin at this point.

There are reports that some parents did, in fact, send their kids into Russia to keep them safe but now they can't get them back and in some cases have already had their parental rights severed without their consent.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Senior Russian military official ‘plunges 16 storeys to her death falling from window’

A senior military official in Russia heavily involved in funding Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has reportedly plummeted 16 storeys to her death in St Petersburg.

The body of Marina Yankina was found on the pavement below an apartment building in the city’s Kalininsky district shortly before 8am on Wednesday morning, according to local reports.

The 58-year-old was finance director of the Western Military District, one of the five geographical battalions which comprise Russia’s army, the leader of which Mr Putin has replaced multiple times since invading Ukraine last February.

The Western Military District confirmed one of its employees had died, but refused to comment further – instead pointing local outlets to the authorities investigating her death.

Ms Yankina called her ex-husband to let him know she was about to jump, and told him that she was leaving her documents and packed belongings on the balcony, a local Telegram news channel claimed, adding that “the motives continue to be clarified”.

Her personal belongings were left on a common balcony on the building’s 16th floor, according to Tsargrad TV, a self-styled Russian Fox News, whose founder is sanctioned by the West.

Reports from Russia were conflicted over whether or not Ms Yankina lived in the building.

She previously worked at Russia’s Federal Tax service, and rose to the position as chief of finance within five years of joining the Western Military District as an entry-level staff member, investigative outlet Meduza said, citing local reports.

She is the second senior Russian military official to die this week in circumstances reportedly deemed a suicide by authorities.

Major General Vladimir Makarov, who reportedly led the oppression of journalists, opposition activists and protesters in his role at the Main Directorate for Combating Extremism, was claimed to have shot himself on Monday, a month after being relieved of his post by Mr Putin.

[LadyTevar]

With everything else we've been hearing, I'd count it as a qualified win if those kids are even still alive.

Alive, and not already sold to either slavery or sex shops. That's worse than death imho.

[LadyTevar]

Senior Russian military official ‘plunges 16 storeys to her death falling from window’

I wonder how they made her call him. Interesting that her papers and things were left on the balcony, they must have needed those found.

"nervous about her health"
Yeah, just like others of Putin's buddies, she was wondering when she'd be next.

[wautd]

‘Siberia will be free’: Russian regions vote in unauthorised independence referendums

Russia is a colonial empire in denial

[LaCroix]

Apart from the juicy seperatism, ther eis another kick in the nuts on the horizon.

While the last year resulted in a deficit of 47Billion $, the month of january alone resulted in another whopping 25 billion.
And that's before the ban on imports on oil and petrochemicals from russia for the whole EU was initiated.
They averaged less than 50$/barrel on oil sales, but still budgeted for the year with an average of 70$...

So while Russia has about 250B$ in money and gold (50-50 split) if that trend continues, it will run out not in 5 years as the 2022 data would hint at (since that was with the oil price bubble and no export limits for most of the year), but rather not even last 10 months.

Most likely, even less - if the february numbers reveal an even worse impact due to the new sanctions, and considerening that you can't sell 2000 tons of gold during one year and not have prices drop significantly once investors realize that you have to sell the crown jewels...

Also Russian offensive has fizzled out, apart from some places where the Russian troops have started to valiantly advance east - there are even reports of fights among the russian troops, due to being unaware of each others locations, so sometimes Ukrainan troops just sit down and wait to challenge the victors.

I also think that Russians do not know about thermal sights, especially on drones.
They still do a lot of nighttime assaults, not realizing that camo only works during the day, and they are like torches on nightvision, making the night time pretty much a shooting gallery.
This is soo much a "if we can't see them, they can't see us mentality" that it borders on comical.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Apart from the juicy seperatism, ther eis another kick in the nuts on the horizon.

While the last year resulted in a deficit of 47Billion $, the month of january alone resulted in another whopping 25 billion.
And that's before the ban on imports on oil and petrochemicals from russia for the whole EU was initiated.
They averaged less than 50$/barrel on oil sales, but still budgeted for the year with an average of 70$...

So while Russia has about 250B$ in money and gold (50-50 split) if that trend continues, it will run out not in 5 years as the 2022 data would hint at (since that was with the oil price bubble and no export limits for most of the year), but rather not even last 10 months.

Most likely, even less - if the february numbers reveal an even worse impact due to the new sanctions, and considerening that you can't sell 2000 tons of gold during one year and not have prices drop significantly once investors realize that you have to sell the crown jewels...

Also Russian offensive has fizzled out, apart from some places where the Russian troops have started to valiantly advance east - there are even reports of fights among the russian troops, due to being unaware of each others locations, so sometimes Ukrainan troops just sit down and wait to challenge the victors.

I also think that Russians do not know about thermal sights, especially on drones.
They still do a lot of nighttime assaults, not realizing that camo only works during the day, and they are like torches on nightvision, making the night time pretty much a shooting gallery.
This is soo much a "if we can't see them, they can't see us mentality" that it borders on comical.

Got any sources on the reserve money stuff? It's interesting.

Fair play to the Ukrainians if they are managing to link a thermal site to a drone and successfully relay that information accurately enough to a fireteam to drop targets in the dark.

[LaCroix]

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves current value ~ 2000/ounce roughly 125billion but try selling that much without depressing value, so more like 100billion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_N ... ealth_Fund at 150 billion

Everything else (international accounts is frozen...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/russias ... 023-02-06/ deficit of 25B$ per month
If you only get 50 per barrel and budget with earning 70, and then hike your expenses, you manage to blow your budget really quick, it appears...

Overall, budget revenues for the month were down 35.1%, while spending was 58.7% higher in January 2023, at 3.12 trillion roubles, already more than 10% of the full-year spending plan.

So the budget is only supposed to work for like 10 months, if february is the same...
Which is unlikely, since January was the last month without the EU sales ban, so that revenue pretty much dropped from a little bit to nothing.
(which is why they cut production by half a million barrels, last week)

Newswise, there are allegations about a "historic unification" with Belarus, which might mean that they might finally annex their vassal...
Also, the lady that dove the window this week seems to be implied in a military scam, overcharging like 4x for uniforms... Probably among other things, given it's Russia we are talking about.

[LadyTevar]

Also Russian offensive has fizzled out, apart from some places where the Russian troops have started to valiantly advance east - there are even reports of fights among the russian troops, due to being unaware of each others locations, so sometimes Ukrainan troops just sit down and wait to challenge the victors.

I also think that Russians do not know about thermal sights, especially on drones.
They still do a lot of nighttime assaults, not realizing that camo only works during the day, and they are like torches on nightvision, making the night time pretty much a shooting gallery.
This is soo much a "if we can't see them, they can't see us mentality" that it borders on comical.

"Valiantly advance East" sounds like they're trying to return home to Russia.

Blue-on-blue incidents sounds more like that Lack of Training and Lack of Equipment we're hearing about. If you don't have radio contact or a way to IFF, yeah, you're gonna think every armed squad is an enemy.
Can't explain the "Durrr, they can't see in Dark!" idiocy. Hell, you see low-light and thermal imaging in Heist Movies, for Decades now, why *wouldn't* the military have that?
Unless for some reason Russia does not? Or is it more "Lack of Training" we're seeing?

[Solauren]

Can't explain the "Durrr, they can't see in Dark!" idiocy. Hell, you see low-light and thermal imaging in Heist Movies, for Decades now, why *wouldn't* the military have that?
Unless for some reason Russia does not? Or is it more "Lack of Training" we're seeing?

People selling the working nightvision equipment on the 'black market' prior to the war? (They go for about $250 USD on E-bay)
Crappy maintenance standards resulting in the equipment they do have not working? (As been a common theme for this entire stupidity)
The equipment the military sold either never existed, didn't work, or wasn't what it claimed to be?
All of the above?

[bilateralrope]

Can't explain the "Durrr, they can't see in Dark!" idiocy. Hell, you see low-light and thermal imaging in Heist Movies, for Decades now, why *wouldn't* the military have that?
Unless for some reason Russia does not? Or is it more "Lack of Training" we're seeing?

Maybe they think that the night vision they have (if they have any) is better than what Ukraine has. Or at least the person giving orders thinks that.

[Jub]

Can't explain the "Durrr, they can't see in Dark!" idiocy. Hell, you see low-light and thermal imaging in Heist Movies, for Decades now, why *wouldn't* the military have that?
Unless for some reason Russia does not? Or is it more "Lack of Training" we're seeing?

People selling the working nightvision equipment on the 'black market' prior to the war? (They go for about $250 USD on E-bay)
Crappy maintenance standards resulting in the equipment they do have not working? (As been a common theme for this entire stupidity)
The equipment the military sold either never existed, didn't work, or wasn't what it claimed to be?
All of the above?

There's also likely to be a lack of batteries and chargers for what they do have given the other logistical shortfalls we know about.

[Solauren]

And said batteries and chargers could also be defective (i.e not charging as fast, draining quickly, etc)

[LaCroix]

Well, the Russians probably only have Nightvision, and do not realize that the Ukrainians and their drones using THERMAL sights. Or that the Ukraine uses military grade thermal sights, not some cheap Banggood aftermarket hiking grade stuff.

With a nightvision, you can see better in the dark, as in the gree-tinge computergame sense.
On THERMAL ,every living object, especially in cold nights, is a shiny white blob - and you can easily discern rabbit and human-shaped blobs, you can even see how they move, and if they are just play dead and hide or are actually cooling down...

Having nightvision and being told that this is great gear (or having bought it, and knowing it's the best you could get), you'd assume the enemy has stuff no better than yours. But (western) military stuff is expensive for a reason - it is just a tiny step removed from actual magic.

DO NOT WATCH MORE THAN 8 SECONDS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO SEE PEOPLE GETTING HIT BY ARTILLERY AND DYING.

[LadyTevar]

DO NOT WATCH MORE THAN 8 SECONDS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO SEE PEOPLE GETTING HIT BY ARTILLERY AND DYING.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9tE3Jg66_s[youtube]

As I cannot read Cyrillic, what were the Blue and Purple outlines denoting?

[Dominus Atheos]

Well, the Russians probably only have Nightvision, and do not realize that the Ukrainians and their drones using THERMAL sights. Or that the Ukraine uses military grade thermal sights, not some cheap Banggood aftermarket hiking grade stuff.

Russian troops aren't equipped with any night vision:

Why Russian forces can’t match Ukraine’s night-vision equipment

...But unlike Western armies, Russia does not routinely issue night-vision gear to dismounted troops. Only a select few special forces and reconnaissance units get the equipment, says Mr Cranny-Evans. This is borne out by images of captured Russian soldiers. So far only Spetsnaz (special forces) units have been pictured with night-fighting equipment. This may be because the technology is expensive and delicate, and inexperienced or conscripted soldiers are not trusted with it. High-end units can cost tens of thousands of dollars each.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist ... -equipment

https://web.archive.org/web/20220415070 ... -equipment

[LaCroix]

While they do not issue it, the mobiks do buy their own gear.

The ones that have some money definitely have bought civil versions of body armour (bulletproof
vests) and nightvision/thermal - eg. hunting gear...

Also, since the russians still do 'town units' where entire units are created from a town or two inorder to create unit cohesion (which also means that the town will lose a lot of people at the same time), these towns often pool resources to get at least a bit of gear.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

US President Joe Biden makes surprise visit to Ukraine

US President Joe Biden has arrived in Ukraine for a surprise visit to the war-torn nation - his first since Russia invaded.

Mr Biden announced an additional half a billion dollars in support for Ukraine's resistance against Vladimir Putin's Russia, during his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mariinsky Palace, the president's official residence.

Mr Zelenskyy said the pair spoke about “long range weapons and the weapons that may still be supplied to Ukraine even though it wasn’t supplied before,” but he did not mention any new commitments.

The visit came amid a fresh drive by the Ukrainian leader for additional support from the West, with his latest request for fighter jets still being denied by all of Ukraine's allies.

Mr Biden did not respond to that demand in a press conference held at the start of his visit, but he did outline a pledge to stick with Ukraine “as long as it takes”.

“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about US support for Ukraine in the war,” Mr Biden added.

President Zelenskyy shared a photograph of himself and his American counterpart on his official Instagram account.

A translation of the caption, which was written in Ukrainian, reads: "Welcome to Kyiv! Your visit is an extremely important sign of support for all Ukrainians."

Mr Biden is the latest Western leader to make a war-time visit to the capital, following Labour's Sir Keir Starmer, who visited last week for a meeting with Mr Zelenskyy.

He was pictured walking through Kyiv, in footage which was shared on social media.

Mr Zelenskyy has toured Western nations himself recently, stopping in London and Paris in early February to ask for further air support.

While the UK is continuing to reject Mr Zelenskyy's pleas for fighter jets, his speech to Parliament appears to have sparked a shifting of position.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said "nothing is off the table" when asked whether he would grant Mr Zelenskyy's wish.

Expanding on the PM's comment, his spokesman said Britain had already promised to train Ukrainian pilots, but added: “What we have not made a decision on is whether we send UK fighter jets."

"Obviously there is an ongoing discussion among other countries about their own fighter jets, some of which are more akin to what Ukrainian pilots are used to.”

Mr Biden tweeted to reiterate his country's support for Ukraine in its battle against Russia, after his visit was made public.

He said: "As we approach the anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, I'm in Kyiv today to meet with President Zelenskyy and reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.

"When Putin launched his invasion nearly one year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could outlast us. But he was dead wrong.

"Over the last year, the United States has built a coalition of nations from the Atlantic to the Pacific to help defend Ukraine with unprecedented military, economic, and humanitarian support – and that support will endure."

President Biden had been under pressure to make his first visit to Ukraine since Russia invaded a year ago, given several European heads of state had already made visits early in the war.

'We are doing the right thing': Inside the US ammunition plant helping the Ukraine war effort

Five thousand miles from the frontline battlefields, the bowels of a former railway plant in a Pennsylvanian city is an unlikely place to find Ukraine's war effort in full swing.

Sky News was invited inside a US Army ammunition plant for a tour designed to show that the West is not running out of ammunition.

Last week, the NATO secretary-general delivered a blunt warning to Western nations.

"The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production," Jens Stoltenberg said.

And so on the production line of a century-old factory, in the rust-belt town of Scranton, American steelworkers are producing round after round of artillery.

We found an industry, increasingly dismissed as obsolete, now in overdrive.

"We're working as hard as we need to work to meet the requirements of the contracts," the US army's boss at this plant, Richard Hansen, told me as we watched red-hot steel rods pass down a conveyor belt.

Well, they are increasing production simply because of the war in

"We're working two shifts every day - a solid two shifts every day, 15 to 16 hours a day, five to six days a week and also preparing to increase production incrementally."

None of the officials at the plant will mention Ukraine itself. Language is carefully controlled; instead the phrases are "matching contracts" and "meeting demand".

But the contract is Ukraine and the demand is huge. Officials admit that the production of artillery in America has not been this intense since the Korean War 70 years ago.

Production is at a 70-year high

In this factory alone, 11,000 155 millimetre artillery rounds now roll off its line each month. And yet it is not nearly matching what Ukraine's army is using.

Between 5,000 and 7,000 artillery shells are used in Ukraine every day. In some of the most intense fighting, they've used 10,000 a day.

That rate is set to increase further as winter turns to spring and new offensives by both sides begin. It's why the US military is investing $2bn to ramp up production in facilities like Scranton.

Over the past several decades, Western military planners and political leaders have been shifting focus and investment to high-tech warfare.

The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were against insurgencies; asymmetrical battles where investment in equipment like drones became a priority over tanks and artillery.

Incorrect judgements were made about the likelihood of an old-fashioned mechanical war - a continental land battle.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine spooked western governments. China's eye on Taiwan further exposes western capability gaps and future challenges.

In America, Cold War-era factories and old rivalries are being fired up.

"Russia is obviously wrong and we are doing the right thing by supporting them," one worker told me.

Another added: "Yeah - it's a busy day right now. It's been going really good. I am proud of what we do. It's exciting to be a part of it."

Mr Hansen said: "It's an opportunity for local Scrantonians to be able to work for the US government and support the joint war fight so it's something that they appreciate."

The Ukraine conflict has proved that a "just in time" ammunition supply chain is unsustainable and stockpiles are shrinking.

But this race against Russia to rearm is time-consuming, expensive and the section of the production line we're watching in Scranton is the easy part.

From Pennsylvania, the artillery casings are transported a thousand miles west to Iowa where they are filled with explosives and armed with fuses. The raw materials for the explosives are costly.

From Iowa, they are then shipped to eastern Europe.

"It's a very difficult process, it's highly engineered, so certainly you don't wanna ramp up too quickly because quality is the number one aspect, what we look for. Nothing easier without being inspected multiple times," Mr Hansen tells me.

Russia is not constrained by Western industrial safety and quality standards.

It also has fewer commercial restraints. President Vladimir Putin has switched the Russian economy to a war footing allowing for increased production in an industry typically hampered by inefficiency and corruption.

In Pennsylvania, Mr Hansen welcomed the US government investment in his factory, but his message for the politicians and industrial leaders was clear.

He said: "You need to continue to invest your time and your money into a facility... we are communicating to our leadership, the things that we need here - me specifically at Scranton - need to ensure that we can continue to efficiently produce what we need to produce here."

[Broomstick]

US President Joe Biden makes surprise visit to Ukraine

[LaCroix]

I can only imagine the pucker factor on the Secret Service butts when he strolled around Kiev with Zelensky and the air raid sirens suddenly went off, and they just kept on walking.

[Highlord Laan]

I can only imagine the pucker factor on the Secret Service butts when he strolled around Kiev with Zelensky and the air raid sirens suddenly went off, and they just kept on walking.

It's win-win, if one is brutal enough. Things go right, and poot-poot manages to not shit the bed, he ends up embarrassed on the world stage as Dark Brandon thumbs his nose at the chief vatnik.

Things go bad and some dumbass mobik kills the fucking president in a strike, the US responds by stuffing both feet up russia's collective asshole and chases the survivors into Siberia for China to play with later.

Either way, ruzzia and poot-poot lose.

[Jub]

Russia and the poot-poot man were hard up for cash,
So they spent 12 months mired in the Donbas...

[LadyTevar]

I can only imagine the pucker factor on the Secret Service butts when he strolled around Kiev with Zelensky and the air raid sirens suddenly went off, and they just kept on walking.

It's win-win, if one is brutal enough. Things go right, and poot-poot manages to not shit the bed, he ends up embarrassed on the world stage as Dark Brandon thumbs his nose at the chief vatnik.

Things go bad and some dumbass mobik kills the fucking president in a strike, the US responds by stuffing both feet up russia's collective asshole and chases the survivors into Siberia for China to play with later.

Either way, ruzzia and poot-poot lose.

I am very glad they did NOT bomb the president to smithereens, as I do NOT want to see the war that sets off. We're scared about Nukes now? Kill the President, have the USA and NATO now out for revenge ala Pearl Harbor, and the only way out would be to launch the Nukes.

[KraytKing]

Well, my take on the situation was always intended to be pessimistic, and I'm glad it wasn't realistic. These developments are very promising.

There are, of course, other considerations and concerns. This is a brutal level of casualties, by even the most pro-Russian estimates, but the pool is still deep. Remember how bad it was for Russia during the Kharkiv and Kherson fights, and remember that it was a lot better for Ukraine then. Ukraine was gaining clay, and capturing quite a bit more Russian equipment than it is now. To be clear, I don't think now and I haven't thought since February 26 or 27 that Ukraine will lose this war, I just think there is a lot more blood to be shed. Russia can keep up an offensive with this scale of loss for a horrifying time period, and since this is their big one, they probably will. And of course, they're probably a lot better on the defense, so the potential Ukrainian spring offensive to cut off Crimea that everyone talks about is going to be very hard.

And the other big thing is nukes. Russia definitely has them. People have raised doubts about their ICBM fleet, but even if we take a ridiculously anti-Russian stance and assume all the billions they spent on the missiles was embezzled away, they are almost certainly capable of delivering warheads to Ukraine. Putin might convince himself that this is a war for Russian survival; if you assume, like Putin probably does, that everyone acts like Putin, then he isn't wrong. And that would justify the use of any weapon.

Western aid hasn't been moving as quickly as it could be, not in all categories. I mentioned this already, but I'll mention it again: we should be sending a LOT more tanks and Bradleys. The US has them and isn't using them, it would barely be an expense to get rid of them, and it would end the war very, very effectively. Why not then? Because if the Russian gets cut off in Crimea with a quick cut through Melitopol or Mariupol, then the Russian army will be destroyed, Crimea retaken, the war ended in Ukraine's favor, and Russian geopolitical aims blocked permanently. If a Ukrainian division gets close to achieving this objective, I think Putin might be willing to drop a few tactical weapons to stop it. That would be a disaster of the highest order, and might damn everyone on this board to an early death if we get unlucky twice. Western strategists might be thinking the same damn thing, and that's why they're sending enough to keep the fight going but not enough to win it. Probably. The level of the Russian disaster lately does make me wonder.

There are some solutions to this. One, do what we're doing. Keep the war going indefinitely, never brutal enough to comprehensively destroy the Russian but also hopeful enough to keep the Ukrainian in the fight. Two, make peace, and wait for Putin to die. His successor might be willing to interact on the global stage. Putin might be willing to make peace in exchange for land gains. If he lives for another five years in this scenario, I imagine he will start the war again and try to take more. If he dies, his successor might be less volatile and more willing to accommodate Ukrainian national survival. As much as I want Ukraine to reclaim its rightful holdings in Crimea and Donbass, I don't know how a defeated Russia would respond.

Interesting take on the financial situation, LaCroix. Like everything else, we'll see how it develops over time. Lot of volatility there, potentially. The Persian Gulf has a habit of blowing itself up every once in a while, and doing that this spring could bump oil up to $200/bbl, and all of a sudden Russia is scary again. That's obviously a worst-case scenario and somewhat unlikely. So was the war in Ukraine ever getting this hot.