Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[wautd]

Two, make peace, and wait for Putin to die. His successor might be willing to interact on the global stage.

But who will that be? Dmitri Medvedev again? He sounds even more of an extremist lunatic than Putin these days.

[LaCroix]

In between a lot of pushing and shoving around Bakhmut, lines moving tihs and that way a few hundred meters, but are still pretty much stable, with the only thing significantly advancing is the russian death toll.

South, at Vuledar is the same. Russians realized that they can't cross a minefield that is covered by artillery - so they sent one of their rare thermobarics to level Vuledar to get rid of the artillery there.
Too bad thermobaric launchers only have a range of 4km, while pretty much every mortar and gun the UA troops have has more range...
Big loss in money and rare equipment here...

They then thought, if we can't get rid of the artillery emplacements, let's get rid of the mines!
So they brought one of their ultra-rare de-mining vehicles with the det-cord launcher...
A pretty much unarmored vehicle...
And drove it into the minefield...
That was still covered by artillery...

But the firework was very pretty!

Right now, the russians have about a week or so left where the can push 'bigger'. Thawing has begun, and in a few days vehicles, and a few days later, nobody, can cross open fields for a couple of weeks. Most russian advances have been in open fields. Most likely, they will have to give up some of these gains, as it will be impossibe to supply them. Wagner is pretty much sidelined again -Mister P. is complaining nonstop about not getting any equipment. So far, he has managed to stay away from tall buildings with windows, but his complaining will most likely make sure he gets a ballistic exit, soon.

So far, it seems like the war is at a standstill, or the russians advancing slowly, but the UA strategy to trade a bit of land for enemy losses during the winter has paid off, massively.

December 20:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... of_dec_20/

And now february.


50k losses, 500 tanks, 500 apc, 500 artillery, etc.

And now it goes back to long range artillery duels - which is also something UA is muuuch better than them, and then, in a month or so, the western vehicles are there, crews are trained, and the UA offensive will start.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 86203.html

Ukraine war news – live: Putin suspends key nuclear arms deal and blames invasion on West
It comes as Joe Biden meets his Polish counterpart after Ukraine visit

Arpan Rai
Emily Atkinson

President Vladimir Putin has suspended Russia’s participation in a key arms treaty with the United States that limits the two sides’ strategic nuclear arsenals.

The New START treaty was signed in Prague in 2010, came into force the following year and was extended in 2021 for five more years just after US president Joe Biden took office.

The announcement came as part of a speech delivered ahead of the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine.

Mr Putin pinned the blame for the conflict on “Western elites”, who he said want to “finish” with Russia “forever.”

Addressing members of both houses of the Russian parliament in Moscow, he said the West was supporting “traitors” who opposed Russia‘s actions, and thanked Russians for their “courage and resolution” in supporting what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Putin’s major address came just hours before Joe Biden meets the Polish president Andrzej Duda.

So basically, if I understand it right, Putin intends to build and test nuclear weapons from now on.

One wonders how he intends to go about doing that; considering the condition his country is in.

[LaCroix]

A cynic would say that they need to test and build new ones because they are pretty certain their old ones are no longer in working order...

[LadyTevar]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 86203.html

Ukraine war news – live: Putin suspends key nuclear arms deal and blames invasion on West
It comes as Joe Biden meets his Polish counterpart after Ukraine visit

So basically, if I understand it right, Putin intends to build and test nuclear weapons from now on.

One wonders how he intends to go about doing that; considering the condition his country is in.

From BBC News:

Escalation. It's become President Putin's watchword.
And we saw more of it today.

"Russia suspends its participation in the New Start treaty," announced the Kremlin leader in his state of the nation address. As usual he blamed the West.

New Start is the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and America. It limits the nuclear arsenals of the two countries.

But there was more.

The Russian president announced that he had signed a decree on "putting new ground-based strategic complexes on combat standby duty".

He warned that Russia was ready to resume nuclear weapons testing.

"Of course, we will not do it first," President Putin added. "But if the US conducts tests, we will do it as well."

That last bit is the interesting one. WHEN did the US last conduct a Nuclear Test? 1990s? The only Nation that's conducted any Nuclear Tests in the last 20 years has been North Korea. (source: https://www.atomicarchive.com/almanac/t ... ology.html)

If Putin stands by his 'we won't til you do' vow, he's going to be waiting a long time. I'm waiting to see how long before he starts claiming the US "Secretly Tested" and starts his program.

[Dominus Atheos]

And the other big thing is nukes. Russia definitely has them. People have raised doubts about their ICBM fleet, but even if we take a ridiculously anti-Russian stance and assume all the billions they spent on the missiles was embezzled away, they are almost certainly capable of delivering warheads to Ukraine. Putin might convince himself that this is a war for Russian survival; if you assume, like Putin probably does, that everyone acts like Putin, then he isn't wrong. And that would justify the use of any weapon.

The problem with that line of thinking is that it means we have no choice but to surrender anything Putin wants if he threatens nukes because otherwise it could mean "the end of the world!"

[Highlord Laan]

And the other big thing is nukes. Russia definitely has them. People have raised doubts about their ICBM fleet, but even if we take a ridiculously anti-Russian stance and assume all the billions they spent on the missiles was embezzled away, they are almost certainly capable of delivering warheads to Ukraine. Putin might convince himself that this is a war for Russian survival; if you assume, like Putin probably does, that everyone acts like Putin, then he isn't wrong. And that would justify the use of any weapon.

The problem with that line of thinking is that it means we have no choice but to surrender anything Putin wants if he threatens nukes because otherwise it could mean "the end of the world!"

That's what the fucker expected, because it's worked every other time his shitty mafia empire invades a neighbor. He's also holding out for the fascist party to retake control in the US and back him up.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And the other big thing is nukes. Russia definitely has them. People have raised doubts about their ICBM fleet, but even if we take a ridiculously anti-Russian stance and assume all the billions they spent on the missiles was embezzled away, they are almost certainly capable of delivering warheads to Ukraine. Putin might convince himself that this is a war for Russian survival; if you assume, like Putin probably does, that everyone acts like Putin, then he isn't wrong. And that would justify the use of any weapon.

The problem with that line of thinking is that it means we have no choice but to surrender anything Putin wants if he threatens nukes because otherwise it could mean "the end of the world!"

That's what the fucker expected, because it's worked every other time his shitty mafia empire invades a neighbor. He's also holding out for the fascist party to retake control in the US and back him up.

Putin pulls out of only remaining nuclear arms treaty with US as he blames the West for Ukraine war

Russia is suspending its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the US, President Vladimir Putin announced in a two-hour speech as he blamed Western countries for the invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Putin risked further inflaming tensions with the West ahead of the first anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine by using a state-of-the-nation address to announce Russia would be pulling out of the New START Treaty.

The pact, signed in 2010 by the US and Russia, caps the number of long-range nuclear warheads the two sides can deploy and limits the use of missiles that can carry atomic weapons.

Mr Putin also said that Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the US does.

A global ban on tests has been in place since the Cold War era.

During his two-hour speech, Mr Putin blamed the West for the Ukraine war, casting Russia as the victim, doubling down on his frequent justification of his invasion of Ukraine by accusing Western countries of threatening Russia.

“It’s they who have started the war. And we are using force to end it,” Mr Putin said before an audience of politicians, state officials and soldiers who fought in Ukraine.

He also repeated his claims that Moscow was defending civilians in regions of Ukraine that Moscow has illegally annexed

“We aren’t fighting the Ukrainian people,” Mr Putin said, claiming Ukraine “has become hostage of the Kyiv regime and its Western masters, which have effectively occupied the country.”

The West is aware that “it is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield,” so it launched “aggressive information attacks” by “misconstruing historical facts,” attacking Russian culture, religion and values, Mr Putin said.

There were no conciliatory overtones as he vowed no military let-up in Ukrainian territories Moscow has illegally annexed.

Mr Putin also accused Western nations of waging an attack on Russia’s economy with sanctions but that they had not “achieved anything and will not achieve anything."

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg voiced regret about Mr Putin’s move, saying that “with today’s decision on New START, full arms control architecture has been dismantled”.

“I strongly encourage Russia to reconsider its decision and respect existing agreements,” he told reporters.

He also dismissed Mr Putin's claim that Russia did not start the war.

"It is President Putin who started this imperial war of conquest and it is Putin who keeps escalating the war," he said.

While the Russian constitution mandates that the president deliver the key speech annually, Mr Putin never gave one in 2022, as his troops rolled into Ukraine and suffered repeated setbacks. His address on Tuesday comes nearly a year on from the invasion on February 24 2022.

After Mr Putin's speech, Downing Street said it “will not waver” in its support for Ukraine.

The UK’s ambassador in Kyiv, Dame Melinda Simmons, said: “Nobody is responsible for the Russian invasion of Ukraine but Russia.”

The prime minister’s official spokesman told reporters in Westminster that Mr Sunak had not watched Mr Putin’s speech as he was chairing a Cabinet meeting, but he noted that “nearly one year on, the West’s resolve has only been strengthened and Ukraine continues to demonstrate its ability to defend its sovereignty”.

Mr Putin's defiant speech comes the day after President Joe Biden visited Kyiv to underline the United States' support for Ukraine.

After paying an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Mr Biden made his way to Warsaw on a mission to solidify Western unity as both Ukraine and Russia prepare to launch spring offensives.

“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about US support for Ukraine in the war,” Mr Biden said as he stood with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy before departing for Poland.

Mr Biden met Polish President Andrzej Duda where he reaffirmed the United States' dedication to European security.

He will later deliver an address from the gardens of Warsaw’s Royal Castle on Tuesday and is also due to consult with allies from NATO’s eastern flank in Poland as the Russian invasion of Ukraine edges towards an even more complicated stage.

Mr Biden described NATO as “maybe the most consequential alliance in history," and he said it's “stronger than it's ever been” despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's hopes that it would fracture over the war in Ukraine.

While Mr Biden is looking to use his trip to Europe as a moment of affirmation for Ukraine and its allies, the White House has also emphasised that there is no clear endgame to the war in the short term and the situation on the ground has become increasingly complex.

The administration on Sunday revealed it has new intelligence suggesting that China, which has remained on the sidelines of the conflict, is now considering sending Moscow lethal aid. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it could become a “serious problem” if Beijing follows through.

ITV News Asia Correspondent Debi Edward said China's foreign minister Qin Gang had warned unnamed countries "to stop fuelling the flames, shifting the blame on China and stop clamouring for Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow."

He said his country wants to play a role in ending the conflict. He said China would continue to urge peace talks and provide “Chinese wisdom" to bring about a political settlement.

Mr Zelenskyy has been pushing the US and European allies to provide fighter jets and long-range missile systems known as ATACMS - which Mr Biden has declined to provide so far.

With no end in sight for the war, the anniversary is a critical moment for Mr Biden to try to bolster European unity and reiterate that Mr Putin’s invasion was a frontal attack on the post-World War II international order. The White House hopes the president’s visit to Kyiv and Warsaw will help bolster American and global resolve.

“It is going to be a long war,” said Michal Baranowski, managing director of the German Marshall Fund East.

“If we don’t have the political leadership and if we don’t explain to our societies why this war is critical for their security... then Ukraine would be in trouble.”

[Solauren]

Did Putin hire Baghdad Bob as his speech writer?

[LadyTevar]

Did Putin hire Baghdad Bob as his speech writer?

He's getting further and further away from reality, that's for sure. "Unable to beat Russia on the ground"?? Then why are you taking home so many body bags, Putin?

I have serious doubts about his remaining sanity. I can only hope there's SOMEONE in his Inner Circle who will step up and stop him before the missiles fly. Unfortunately, they may already have been defenestrated.

[Broomstick]

I'm not convinced he's crazy.

I am convinced he wants his conquest, and he's not above outright lying to get it.

[Ralin]

I'm not convinced he's crazy.

I am convinced he wants his conquest, and he's not above outright lying to get it.

Like I said before, not crazy, but he does seem out of touch with reality. How exactly that happened will probably be studied a hundred years from now, but it probably boils down to no one being immune to dictator brain.

To wit,

"Unable to beat Russia on the ground"?? Then why are you taking home so many body bags, Putin?

I think the key thing is that in Putin's theory of the war and international relations he's not in an undeclared war with Ukraine. He's in a war with America/NATO. With that context in mind? Not surprising that a bunch of Russian soldiers have died.

[bilateralrope]

Boss of Wagner mercenary group accuses Russian army chiefs of ‘treason’

Yevgeny Prigozhin says Moscow is refusing to supply the group with munitions and other supplies in Ukraine

Guardian staff and agencies
Wed 22 Feb 2023 00.38 GMT

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has said Moscow’s military chiefs are refusing to supply the group with munitions and are seeking to destroy it, accusing them of “treason”, in an escalation of the war of words between senior Russian officials and the private army boss.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary force, which has recruited from prisons across Russia to bolster its ranks, is playing a key role in the efforts to capture the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east. The battle has exposed tensions between the Wagner group and the Russian army, though the Kremlin denies any rift.

“[Moscow’s] chief of general staff and the defence minister give out orders left and right not only to not give ammunition to PMC Wagner, but also to not help it with air transport,” Prigozhin said in a voice message shared by his press service on Tuesday.

“There is just direct opposition going on, which is nothing less than an attempt to destroy Wagner. This can be equated to high treason,” he added.

Prigozhin also accused the military high command of having prohibited the delivery of shovels for Wagner fighters to dig trenches.

In the past, Prigozhin has criticised Russia’s regular army in Ukraine and recently slammed Moscow’s “monstrous bureaucracy” for slowing military gains. He has also accused the Russian military of attempting to “steal” victories from Wagner.

Russia’s defence ministry denied limiting ammunition shipments to volunteers at the front, but made no mention of the Wagner group private army or of Prigozhin’s accusations.

“All requests for ammunition for assault units are met as soon as possible,” it insisted, promising new deliveries on Saturday and denouncing as “absolutely false” reports of shortages.

“Attempts to create a split within the close mechanism of interaction and support between units of the Russian [fighting] groups are counter-productive and work solely to the benefit of the enemy,” the statement read.

Prigozhin has assumed a more public role since the war started. His Wagner group spearheaded the battle for Bakhmut but his relations with Moscow are clearly deteriorating.

This year Prigozhin was stripped of the right to recruit prisoners and there have been some signs of a Kremlin move to curb his influence.

After the Russian defence ministry rejected his initial accusations on Tuesday, Prigozhin released a voice message saying this was “nothing more than simply spitting at Wagner”, reiterating that his men were very short of supplies.

In his state of the nation speech delivered on Tuesday, Putin seemed to address the infighting.

“We must get rid of … any interdepartmental contradictions, formalities, grudges, misunderstandings, and other nonsense,” he told the political and military elite.

In a post later in the day, Prigozhin said he had been too busy to watch the speech and could therefore not comment on the president’s remarks.

Taking Bakhmut would be a major win for Moscow in its nearly year-long offensive in Ukraine, though analysts say its capture would be mainly symbolic as the city holds little strategic value.

Reuters and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

Looks like someone is about to go out a window and/or convicted for treason.

[Solauren]

Yevgeny Prigozhin killed, and then Wagner Group will 'join the glorious russian military' (or else)

Which should backfire against Putin nicely.

[Broomstick]

Unless Wagner and the regular Russian military wind up fighting each other. Which would not break my heart.

[LaCroix]

Russia responded to the (pre-announced to them) visit of Biden by having a (announced) nissile test during his visit.
It failed...

The last time they did one to rattle their saber, it worked. So my prediction of their stuff not being reliable was not too far off... Right now, it is 50/50, pending further evidence...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/poli ... index.html

[wautd]

I can imagine that Putin must be deeply confused these days. He blames the West for brainwashing Ukrainian citizens for not liking Russia anymore, and even after turning their cities into rubble and murdering, torturing and abducting thousands of Ukrainian citizens, the country is still moving away from the Russian sphere of influence

[Ralin]

So is he wrong about elements of the regular army conspiring to fuck him over? Because barring incompetence or disloyalty it doesn't seem to make much sense for Putin to turn on Putin's personal army, and I haven't heard Wagner accused of either.

[bilateralrope]

Yevgeny Prigozhin killed, and then Wagner Group will 'join the glorious russian military' (or else)

Which should backfire against Putin nicely.

Or maybe the Putin decides that it's more convenient to get rid of leaders in the regular military.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Yevgeny Prigozhin killed, and then Wagner Group will 'join the glorious russian military' (or else)

Which should backfire against Putin nicely.

Or maybe the Putin decides that it's more convenient to get rid of leaders in the regular military.

He's been doing a damn good job of it so far, how many generals have been lost now? Russia has only admitted four, Ukraine has claimed five more.

[LadyTevar]

Ukraine war: China's claim to neutrality fades with Moscow visit

Vladimir Putin loves a really long table. Images of his meetings are famous, with the Russian leader at one end and the person he is speaking to so far away that you wonder if it is hard for them to hear one other.

It was not like that when he met China's top foreign policy official, Wang Yi.

There they were, sitting within handshake distance, with an oval shaped table in the middle.

It could be that the proximity was achieved by seating placement at a previously-used table, with the Chinese delegation directly across the middle rather than at the long ends but the effect was the same.

When the footage was released, it appeared to be a deliberately symbolic move to show that he felt safe enough to be that close to the representative of such an important friend.

Of course, it hasn't always been that way. Decades ago, Beijing's network of underground fallout shelters were designed to protect the citizens of the Chinese capital from a nuclear war with the Soviet Union.

Yet now Xi Jinping's administration sees Russia as a front-line enemy of US influence. A nation which - like North Korea - may be considered an international pariah but which serves a useful geopolitical purpose.

The Chinese Government didn't even seem that embarrassed when President Putin returned home from attending Beijing Winter Olympics, having proclaimed a new "no limits" relationship with China and, within weeks, launched the invasion of Ukraine.

Many have asked whether Mr Xi was warned about the imminent war when he sat next to his Russian counterpart who must have been considering barely anything else at the time.

China is walking along a very delicate path in its dealings with Russia over Ukraine. Mr Xi may feel like he's confidently striding down the track, but some think that the path is crumbling at the edges, with Beijing's claim to neutrality increasingly difficult to stand up.

Wang Yi comes out of meetings proclaiming that China and Russia are together promoting "peace and stability".

In other parts of the world, it will seem ludicrous to use expressions like "peace and stability" on a trip to Russia almost one year before the first anniversary of that country's invasion of Ukraine.

Beijing knows this and yet decided to press ahead nevertheless, in the full knowledge that it will take a hit reputationally because it has calculated that is more important to offer significant moral support to Vladimir Putin at this time.

When Wang Yi met Sergei Lavrov he said, "I am ready to exchange views with you my dear friend, on issues of mutual interest and I look forward to reaching new agreements".

Russia's Foreign Minister said the two were showing solidarity and defending each other's interests despite "high turbulence on the world stage", as if this turbulence was something floating in the ether rather than chaos of his own government's making.

Earlier this week in Beijing, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang warned that the conflict in Ukraine could spiral out of control if certain countries keep pouring fuel on the fire.

He was referring to the US, a country which is openly giving military assistance to the Ukrainian army but which has warned China not to provide Russia with weapons and ammunition.

Analysts are now asking what options China might consider if it looks like President Putin is facing a humiliating battlefield defeat.

Researchers in America say that Beijing is already supplying Russia with dual use equipment, technology which can appear to be civilian, but which can also, for example, be used to repair jet fighters.

It has also not tried to hide the fact that it is buying up Russian oil and gas to make up for markets its neighbour lost due to sanctions which followed the invasion.

And Vladimir Putin confirmed in his meeting with Wang Yi that his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will soon travel to Moscow. It is thought this might happen in the coming months.

In a way, the Kremlin is doing China's dirty work. It is draining Western military resources and putting pressure on Nato and if Russia's economy tanks because of it, does that really matter to Beijing? It will just need more Chinese products for the recovery afterwards.

The problem is that Western countries have been quite united, Russia doesn't appear able to win and, increasingly, China is being seen standing side by side with a bully who forced a bloody, prolonged, war on Europe.

China has to be careful not to bite off more than it can handle, but the rest of the world also won't want Asia's giant dragged into this war to a greater extent than it already is.

[Bedlam]

"Unable to beat Russia on the ground"?? Then why are you taking home so many body bags, Putin?

I think the key thing is that in Putin's theory of the war and international relations he's not in an undeclared war with Ukraine. He's in a war with America/NATO. With that context in mind? Not surprising that a bunch of Russian soldiers have died.

Well he has a point given most of NATO is giving Ukraine free weapons and other support.

[Coop D'etat]

"Unable to beat Russia on the ground"?? Then why are you taking home so many body bags, Putin?

I think the key thing is that in Putin's theory of the war and international relations he's not in an undeclared war with Ukraine. He's in a war with America/NATO. With that context in mind? Not surprising that a bunch of Russian soldiers have died.

Well he has a point given most of NATO is giving Ukraine free weapons and other support.

If he's in a war with NATO that's hardly more flattering to Putin, because it means NATO is fending of the strength of his right arm with NATO's pinky finger

[Jub]

The situation right now is NATO trying to win with as little effort as possible, if even just Germany were to join the battle things would turn very bad for Russia very quickly.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well if China starts sending military aid to Russia you can expect 2 things to happen

1. Economic sanctions against China which given their dependence on trade will hurt them more than it's hurt Russia
2. Massive increases in the amount of military aid going to Ukraine