Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Solauren]

Unless Wagner and the regular Russian military wind up fighting each other. Which would not break my heart.

That's what I was trying to imply

[Solauren]

Well if China starts sending military aid to Russia you can expect 2 things to happen

1. Economic sanctions against China which given their dependence on trade will hurt them more than it's hurt Russia
2. Massive increases in the amount of military aid going to Ukraine

China knows that. If China sends Military aid to the Ukraine, that's tantamount to economic suicide for China. Nothing made in China would be allowed into countries that joined any economic action, and even stores would be rushing to remove 'made in china' to avoid getting lumped in with China and Putin. It would be Red Scare 2.0, but with major businesses getting targeted as well.

No one would ever risk using China for cheap labor again, in fear of that happening.

Also, if China backs Russia, Taiwan is likely to find itself recognized as a sovereign country, meaning any chance of China getting Taiwan back via peaceful or economic means goes out the window.

As for the symbology of the photos
The 'long table' shots are to show Russia 'standing alone'. Nothing more.
All in all, that photo was just PR by Putin. To show they have a 'friend' in China.

China probably went there to check to make sure Putin wasn't looking at them as a possible 'Plan B' invasion for when the offensive in the Ukraine crumbles.

[Ralin]

China would be vastly harder to cut off economically than Russia was, and Biden would have a very hard time getting other countries to try. China's integration into the world economy went beyond 'cheap labor' a long time ago.

Honestly I've wondered if the success the Biden administration has had with sanctions will lead to trying the same thing with disastrous results later. Learning the wrong lessons and all

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The thing is, the Russian economy hasn't suffered from the sanctions as much as was expected thanks to trade with other (non-western) countries.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

GHETTO EDIT: Let's hope China stays out of it, the last thing anyone needs is Korea 2.0

[LaCroix]

The thing is, the Russian economy hasn't suffered from the sanctions as much as was expected thanks to trade with other (non-western) countries.

You mean the Russia that according to it's own budget and financial reserves has a 25+B$ monthly deficit, and will will run out of money in November 2023?

[LaCroix]

They just passed a law that lets them shut down their statistic reporting, which shows, GDP, budget, workforce, etc.

Obviously, this can only mean that their budget for February must be perfectly within planned parameters, and sanctions definitely do not work ...

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Makes me wonder if the visit by Chinese is actually to discuss bailing out Russia's budget.

[Solauren]

Makes me wonder if the visit by Chinese is actually to discuss bailing out Russia's budget.

If China was smart, they'd say 'no'.
Really, Russia is a horrible investment right now.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Makes me wonder if the visit by Chinese is actually to discuss bailing out Russia's budget.

If China was smart, they'd say 'no'.
Really, Russia is a horrible investment right now.

long term, their artic ports are valuable, and short term, energy and minerals with a direct land border that cannot be blockaded by 3rd parties.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Makes me wonder if the visit by Chinese is actually to discuss bailing out Russia's budget.

If China was smart, they'd say 'no'.
Really, Russia is a horrible investment right now.

long term, their artic ports are valuable, and short term, energy and minerals with a direct land border that cannot be blockaded by 3rd parties.

That doesn't mean backing Putin's war is worthwhile. It would cause China more problems than it would solve.

Far better, from China's POV, to let Russia be defeated. While the war grows on, Russia's economy and military become weaker and weaker, making Russia more and more dependent on Chinese support. Once Russia is forced off Ukrainian soil, China can then step in and browbeat Russia into a peace deal; to which the West cannot reasonably object. This would leave China as the clearly dominant power in Eastern Eurasia, with Russia as its subordinate. Russia would not like this one bit, but they would have little alternative.

If Russia actually disintegrates, as is starting to look possible, then China can get much the same outcome by winning over the new governments. Armed intervention is possible, but diplomacy is generally a lot cheaper and safer.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Xi's trip to Moscow is probably something akin to 'you either pull out of Ukraine and end this farce OR you'll be sitting right next to Gorbachev in Hell and known forever more as the leader that made Russia completely subservient to China'.

People forget that Siberia -in the eyes of China- is Chinese territory that Russia took from them.

[Lord Revan]

Xi's trip to Moscow is probably something akin to 'you either pull out of Ukraine and end this farce OR you'll be sitting right next to Gorbachev in Hell and known forever more as the leader that made Russia completely subservient to China'.

People forget that Siberia -in the eyes of China- is Chinese territory that Russia took from them.

Even if China doesn't want Siberia, China is probably both wealthy enough and willing to trade with Russia after this.

Iran has enough oil and gas natively and currently doesn't have enough need for military hardware to float the Russian economy. North Korea doesn't have enough money and neither do the African countries who might be willing to trade with Russia.

This means that Russia will be very dependent economically on China for the foreseeable future.

[madd0c0t0r2]

If I was Xi, then supplying Russia enough equipment that they carry on bleeding men would be the aim.

Equipment represents time, minerals and factory space used up, an opportunity cost of producing more instantly profitable goods, more goods for Chinese, or invested improved production capacity.
BUT the specific production lines are military, and maintaining that capability is an important security factor, especially with the scale of the Chinese military and the scale of immediate competitors (India, Vietnam, phillipines, Indonesia). These are not armies following a tech superiority doctrine. Producing shells or rifles and shipping them to Moscow isn't a huge opportunity cost.

Every rifle delivered eventually costs Moscow another soldier. It takes a few dozen hours to make the rifle. It takes 18years to deliver an adult. And the number of soldiers Russia can field in 30 years is dependent on the number of people alive in ten years time. Even before the war they had a shrinking population and chronic addiction issues. Culling a hundred thousand healthy men/women from the current population, creates a huge weaknesses in future Russia and creates space for china in the future. All for the cost of a rifle.

Finally, don't forget the Belt and Road initiative.
China has been building factory development belts through Pakistan. If Russia needs them to ship millions of shells and rifles then vastly improved transport links will need to be built across the border and through Russia's interior. Those links will be in place afterwards, allowing Chinese goods to flow into Russia, and even through Russia to the West. It's a nice 3rd/4th option for the belts, as well as opening the Siberian frontier as climate change makes the South of China difficult to develop.






Related LRB article on the unequal ambition at the Russia Chinese border https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n03 ... -bear-park

[Crazedwraith]

Happy anniversary of the invasion that totally wasn't going to happen and people were just scaremongering about. Thought tbf the people saying Russian didn't have enough people to invade were clearly right. That just didn't stop them trying.

Also is it time to change the name of this thread?

[Solauren]

China providing military hardware to bleed Russia is a waste of resources. Russia is bleeding themselves dry without that.

If China really wants to make Russia bleed, they should help the areas that are moving towards independence, as well as (covertly) Ukraine.

That should lead to a break up of the Russian Federation. That should lead to army units deserting to return home (and defend their home from being re-absorbed), or army units being sent to re-absorb the break away states. Possibly both.

The result of that is Russia fighting itself. That's the quickest way to collapse a country; Civil War.

With Russia collapsed, China becomes the defacto 'alternate Economic Superpower' to the United States. (i'm not sure if the European Union qualifies for that status yet). That's a position of global influence. Combine with China becoming more and more integrated into the global economy, China becomes 'untouchable', and a power broker.

All without firing a shot, and in a way that the rest of the world would actually approve of.

[wautd]

Russia and China are still allies, and both regimes are pretty short on friends. So I don't think it's likely that China will throw Russia under the bus. With the current tensions with Taiwan and the USA, I would think that having another friendly North Korea-like dictatorship at its borders is far more useful to Xi.

That the Chinese discussed a peace plan with Putin (without inviting any Ukrainian official) de facto shows that China got Russia's back

[Zaune]

I'd have thought one client state like North Korea would be more than enough for the Chinese. Giving the head of the Kim dynasty the boot when they become a liability will be enough of a ball-ache: Imagine trying to do it to Russia, who if nothing else still have both a nuclear deterrent and a domestic arms industry that's at least semi-competitive with China's own.

[LadyTevar]

ONE YEAR HAS PASSED
TOPIC LOCKED TO START A NEW POST