UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Highlord Laan]

Here's hoping Dark Brandon unleashed the ATACMS.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

To those asking if Russia has remote launch ability, here's the crazy thing, it does.

Basically, the ultimate dead man's switch... and a good portion of the nuclear arsenal is designed to be able to be overwritten from the special radio warhead if that warhead is deployed. So... yeah. Sleep well.

[Broomstick]

I was born during the Cold War. I've learned to sleep under the sword of Damocles.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Labour calls for Wagner Group to be classed as terrorist organisation

Labour is calling for ministers to proscribe a Russian mercenary group involved in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a terrorist organisation.

Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper have jointly demanded the government label the Wagner Group a terror outfit over its “appalling atrocities”.

Labour said the move would make it a criminal offence to belong to the private military company, attend its meetings, encourage support or carry its logo in public.

The Wagner Group, led by warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been fighting bloody battles alongside the Russian President’s armed forced in areas of eastern Ukraine.

The mercenaries, made up of contractors and recruited convicts, have battled to take the town of Soledar, a salt-mining town, and is currently involved in brutal fighting for the town of Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region.

Labour wants ministers to follow the US’s lead after Washington last month designated Wagner a “significant transnational criminal organisation”.

In a joint statement, Mr Lammy and Ms Cooper said: “The Wagner Group is responsible for the appalling atrocities in Ukraine and across the world.

“No-one in the UK should be allowed to belong to the Wagner Group, support it or promote it.”

The push for Wagner to be proscribed comes after a Government department reportedly helped its millionaire owner Mr Prigozhin to circumvent UK sanctions to take a British journalist to court.

The Treasury is currently investigating how the department reportedly issued licences to allow lawyers to help Mr Prigozhin launch legal action against a Bellingcat journalist in the UK in 2021 while the Russian oligarch was subject to sanctions.

Labour last month pressed for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to be proscribed as a terror group following the execution of a dual British-Iranian national, Alireza Akbari.

A report in the Telegraph has since suggested the US is keen for Britain not to slap such a label on the special branch of Iran’s armed forces in order to serve as a diplomatic go-between for the White House and Tehran.

Mr Lammy and Ms Cooper continued: “One year on from Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, we need to hold those responsible for supporting its barbaric agenda to account.

“The Government should now proscribe the Wagner Group as terrorists — alongside finally taking action on the IRGC.”

Mr Prigozhin, a millionaire with close ties to Mr Putin, has been vocally critical of the Kremlin in its treatment of his company of recruits.

The group has been involved in operations in Syria, across Africa, and was reportedly involved in a plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the opening months of the conflict.

Sometimes dubbed “Putin’s chef”, Mr Prigozhin has been alleging for weeks that the Russian military does not provide his group with enough ammunition.

[LaCroix]

Bakhmut was hit really hard today at the potential last day for assaults till the end of rain season. Russians managed to close in on the north, but UA forses destroyed a minor water level control dam to make the local rivers swell. This seems to have blocked the attack from moving further.

The retreat across the river in central bakhmut is almost done, though I don't see how they can hold much longer, unless the western shipments come in time, or the end of russian offensive operations allow for a counterattack to push either north or south pincer back.

Still the retreat is orderly and well covered, so far it goes along plans, just much acellerated.

Also zelensky swapped top command today, reason unknown. We'll hear in the next days, I guess.

On the support front, it seems Russia had to pay Syria and Iran for their support... Turkey intercepted at least one truck of gear sent into their controlled zone, and is spitting mad - sending more byraktars and gear to Ukraine in response.

Rumors have it Israel is also reacting due to potential iskander deliveries to itan, and is also preparing a shipment, potentially israeli combat drones. That would be really interesting to see how they fare against russian gear - which might be one reason israel wants to see them in action...

[His Divine Shadow]

https://yle.fi/a/74-20019659

Machine translation

According to a Finnish officer, Ukraine lacks the skill to attack and therefore the war ends in a bitter surprise – "Russia will not lose this war"
The Finnish soldiers interviewed by YLE consider the training of the Finnish Defence Forces to be the best in the world against Russia. That is the lesson that the Ukrainian armed forces desperately need now.


KIEV Now that the Russian armed forces have been stumbling in Ukraine for a year, most Ukrainians and Finns believe in a Ukrainian victory.

That is unwarranted optimism, says a high-ranking Finnish officer who has been following the war on the ground since last April.

In the officer's opinion, the Ukrainian troops do not know how to attack and their training is at a standstill, as if straight from the Soviet Union.

– Ukrainians think they are good soldiers. But that doesn't make it a skilled soldier to have eight years in the trenches to be afraid. Training makes a soldier, the officer charges.

That is why the Finnish officer has taken it upon himself to improve the training of Ukrainian soldiers, especially non-commissioned officers.

He does not want to appear in public under his own name or face. According to the officer, his military rank in Ukraine could arouse resentment even in Russia, even though he is no longer in permanent service in Finland and does not represent Finland anyway.

Anonymously, he can also tell about the situation in an exceptionally blunt manner.

His identity is known to Yle. Yle met him in January in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

The officer is a dissident of the war, as many Western experts believe in Ukraine's war success. In an interview with YLE, the officer debunks several established notions of war.

According to the officer, the only thing that has saved Ukraine so far is that Russia has succumbed to equally bad mistakes. However, it would not be worth making fun of Russia's mistakes.

"The Russian troops have learned, but the Ukrainians have not," says the officer.

Officer: Ukrainian and Russian losses are equally tough
In the officer's opinion, the level of competence of the Ukrainian armed forces is disconcertingly low – and the more he has seen it, the more miserable he considers the level.

– Really bad leadership, poor tactical and combat technical skills. They have taken an example mainly from video games and movies, the officer says.

Especially fatal for the continuation of the war is the fact that, in the opinion of the officer, the Ukrainian troops are incapable of fast-paced mobile warfare. That is why the war has become entrenched in an old-fashioned positional war, in which soldiers from the opposing side are killed by artillery.

– The invasion of Ukraine is a frontal attack. You don't know how to bend, the officer says.

According to the officer, a frontal attack is easier to lead, but the end result is only a front line that moves with difficulty and huge losses. The price of a positional war is high for both, but Ukraine has less reserve than Russia.

Based on the information he collected from the front, the officer estimated that Ukraine's losses in the war are at the same level as Russia's.

According to official estimates of Ukraine, Russia has already lost about 150, 000 soldiers in the war, but Western estimates are lower. Ukraine does not report on its own losses.

Ukrainian counterattacks 'lucky ones'
Ukraine has, of course, regained control of some of the territories that Russia captured at the beginning of its major offensive in the direction of Kiev, Kharkiv and Herson.

"They were lucky," the officer acknowledges.

The officer criticizes the Ukrainians for not trying to blockade the Russians. Beating the aggressor by encircling would save cities, because buildings would not have to be bombed to the ground, as was the case, for example, in the northwestern suburbs of Kiev last spring.

The northwest of Kiev, according to the officer, would also have had excellent conditions for guerrilla activity, but Ukraine did not use that means. In addition, with the use of mines, the Russian attack would have been stopped faster.

Instead of Ukraine's merits, Russia's withdrawal, in the officer's opinion, was rather due to Russia's own mistakes.

In the case of Kharkiv, Russia had left a hole in the front, which was mainly filled only by rebels from Donbas. Ukraine captured the territory east of Kharkov quickly and almost without fighting, since the few soldiers of the opposing side fled.

Also from Herson, Russia withdrew almost without resistance. The withdrawal of the Russians was mainly due to the fact that Ukraine destroyed the bridges over the Dnieper River, making it impossible to maintain troops.

Now the same lack of bridges prevents Ukraine from attacking the eastern bank of the river. And Ukraine has not attacked anywhere else either.

– It seems that Russia has an initiative. One could almost say that Ukraine is about to lose the war if nothing decisive happens, the officer says.

"Ukraine is unlikely to even get Donbas, so if they could even get to the starting point, it would be a victory in the fight," says the officer.

According to the officer, the main problem is not the lack of armaments, but the fact that the competence of the Ukrainian armed forces is simply not enough.

– The Ukrainians have a terrible will and desire to win, but with this war it will not succeed. I haven't seen any signs of that, the officer says.

He points out that Crimea is of particular importance to Russia.

– Russia will not lose this war, because Russia is a nuclear power. If Ukraine were to launch a major offensive against Crimea, then Russia would likely use a tactical nuclear weapon, the officer says.

He believes that as a result of the war, Ukraine will have to give up the territories occupied by Russia, as it would be too difficult to evict Russian soldiers.

– This is not the end of Ukraine, but the border is changing. It must be accepted, as it was in the Winter War. There is nothing you can do about it, the officer predicts.

Yle's foreign journalist Mika Mäkeläinen assesses the war situation.
Ukraine dominates the publicity of the West
The scenario of Ukraine's loss of territory sounds bad in Finland and Europe. The officer thinks it's because of the unwarranted expectations fueled by publicity.

According to the officer, the western perception of the war situation depends entirely on the information produced by Ukraine. The other side is not being listened to, which is understandable in that Russia is lying so blatantly.

– The media is fully involved in Ukrainian propaganda. In a way, it's hype that Ukraine would win, the officer says.

In the officer's opinion, the most realism is found in U.S. intelligence agencies, but it's another matter how much of it ends up with the Allies.

In the officer's opinion, even the leadership of the Finnish state does not have a realistic view of the power relations of the war, since its situational picture is mainly based on public sources.

–Marin says that the war will end when Russia leaves Ukraine. Not going to happen. People in Finland are over-optimistic, the officer says.

According to the officer, the situation at the front looks really bad for Ukraine. The chances of a counterattack in Ukraine are slim.

"The Ukrainians haven't been able to get through Russia's fortified stations really anywhere," the officer says.

"If the public were to give a real picture, everyone would start to become skeptical. And the will to win would fade. But the truth should be understood, he continues.


Finnish education would be a perfect fit for Ukraine
The West is trying to turn the balance of power in Ukraine's favour with massive arms aid. The officer thinks it is necessary, but it is not enough.

According to him, the most effective way to change the situation would be better training for soldiers – and Finnish military training would suit Ukrainians very well.

"The Finnish army currently has the best training in the world against Russia. We have been practicing it for a hundred years, and we have fought two wars," the officer reminds us.

The United States has specially trained Ukrainian special forces, but the model does not receive praise from the officer.

"No one else has the kind of curatorial expertise in the forest and terrain that Finland has. That's what should be trained here, he says.

The Finns have already given some education in Ukraine. However, it has been small-scale and has been done on a voluntary basis. According to the officer, there would be as many willing trainers in Finland if the Ukrainian and Finnish Defense Ministries could agree on the matter.

"Reservists would be coming in the darkest of clouds. In monetary terms, it would be a piece of cake, the officer says – that is, a pittance.

More military training, he says, would be the most cost-effective way to help Ukrainians.

"That's why I'm here now, when I feel sorry for how poorly trained the rank-and-file soldiers and NCOs are sent to the front, and they come back in the coffin," says the officer.

The problem of attitudes of Ukrainians complicates education
In training, however, the officer has run into a surprisingly tough problem: It is really difficult to adopt new doctrines in Ukraine.

– If you start telling the Ukrainians another option, then the Ukrainians will consider it a criticism, and immediately begin to excuse themselves. The ability to accept criticism is really poor," the officer says.

In that respect, Russia and Ukraine follow the same traditions.

"It's a Soviet system where you just do what you tell you to," he says.

The interpreter of the Ukrainian armed forces used by the officer has suggested that a Finn should not be so blunt.

The hierarchical nature of the organization creates additional problems. Inferior officers do not dare to propose changes to the superiors, as this would be considered a criticism.

"The captains and majors tell me it's a good idea, but their grade isn't enough to move the issue forward," the officer laments.

However, change is coming. According to the Finnish officer, young Ukrainian officers and young officials are finally warming up to the reform of training. It will also open up better opportunities for Finland to start training on Ukrainian soil.


Finnish soldier: Training improved, and Ukraine wins the war
Kenneth Grägg, a Finn, sits in a camouflage suit in the lobby of a hotel in Kiev.

According to Kenneth Grägg, Ukrainian soldiers today receive sufficiently long training. Photo: Mika Mäkeläinen / Yle
Yle also met two Finnish soldiers who took part in the battles in Kiev and asked them to assess the competence of the Ukrainian troops. One of them has a rather optimistic opinion, but the other thinks that the criticism made by the Finnish officer is correct.

Kenneth Grägg says he is working with three Ukrainian battalions on the Eastern Front, including training.

In Grägg's opinion, the criticism of the military skill of Ukrainian officers is partly justified. Last year, according to Grägg, reserve lieutenants who had attended the university entered the service so poorly trained that even the recruits knew more.

"It went up my ass," Grägg says, but according to him, the situation is much brighter now.

In Grägg's opinion, the chain of command has also become more flexible. In Ukraine, the rank-and-file soldier is now given more decision-making power in a combat situation, and the training of non-commissioned officers has improved.

In Grägg's view, ukraine's recent losses are mainly due to the fact that there are so many Russian soldiers on the mobilization. This was seen, for example, in January, when Russia captured the city of Soledar.

"We didn't have enough artillery, and the Russians came through with a mass," Grägg says.

According to Grägg, however, russia's mobilization will not work as well in the future, as Russia's weapons are running low.

"They can force up to a million men at the front, but what will they be given? An axe? Grägg asks.

In Grägg's view, the West's arms aid to Ukraine will change the balance of power. If Ukraine receives battle tanks, howitzers and F-16 fighters from the West, Grägg predicts that the war will end with a Ukrainian victory by midsummer.

Finnish fighter: "No clue about moving under fire"
A Finnish volunteer fighter in disguise looks into the camera in Kiev.

The Finnish volunteer fighter hopes for a victory for Ukraine, but suspects that the current front line may become established. Photo: Mika Mäkeläinen / Yle
Another Finnish soldier in Ukraine does not want to appear recognizably in public, so he is called Erkki in this story. Yle also met him at the end of January in Kiev, and his identity is known to Yle.

In Erkki's opinion, Ukraine cannot continue against Russia with the same Soviet military doctrine as before, because Russia will have more soldiers in the long run.

"The Ukrainians are waging a lot of positional warfare and have no idea of an attack," Erkki says.

According to Erkki, the main problem in Ukraine is the lack of training for group leaders and team leaders, which leads to poor communication and confused actions in a combat situation.

"Ukrainians have no clue about protecting themselves and moving under fire," Erkki says. Soldiers, for example, are just advancing straight and not aiming properly.

According to him, in a combat situation, a lack of initiative appears, and even preparation is not effective.

"When the soldiers are in the barracks, they just lie down, even though they need to train," says Erkki.

The contrast with Erkki's own training during conscription is great.

All three Finns agree on one thing: Finnish military training is the best in the world, which is why it should now also be offered to Ukraine

[Broomstick]

Regrettably, I am not familiar enough with military theory and practice to evaluate the above, but it's food for thought, accepted with a grain of thought.

[His Divine Shadow]

It's the opinion of one guy, so it can probably take it with some salt but an interesting view nonetheless, hope it's proven wrong.

Also lol:ing a bit at the bluntness part. Part of the finnish character and officers are bigger assholes than most to boot.

[LaCroix]

So wait - the ukrainians have been trained by us and UK drill instructors,but cant do nothing, but the finnish are the ones who will teach them how to do it right? I don't know what this guy is referrng to, the ukrainian army is pretty much as good as you can get in a year of ongoing war. We see complex manouvers, proper dispersion to avoid artillery losses, proper advance tactics under fire, and proper integration with mechanized forces. Afghan vet commenters agree that thes people are doing everything right. So I don't really know what he sees.

Karkhiv offense was a perfect executed thunder run and grab, Kherson offensive was a well executed push and collapse on the russians.
Yes, they could not hold Soledar, but that's what happens if you are outnumbered 10 to 1, and still they managed to make the russians loose hudreds of vehicles and about 20k men to capture a small 10k inhabitant village.

Yesterday, they destroyed a 500million$ AWACS in minsk, one of only 6 Russia still has, and can't replace. They are bleeding russia dry of men and equipment, to the point we are actually getting close to see the first T34 roll out - they already ran out of BMP APCs and have also started rolling out older designs from the 50-60s.

Now comes the rain season which stops pretty much all offensive action, all the equipment and tanks will be there before it ends, and now UA has toys with bigger range, already destroying all the stockpiles in Mariupol and other supply hubs that were outside of himars range.

I'm pretty much sure this guy just talks a big talk to feel relevant.

[His Divine Shadow]

I don't either I thought things where going well for Ukraine. But I also thought perhaps it's not impossible we're being fed an overly optimistic story and playing down the negatives. Or this guys personal experiences are correct but not indicative of the larger perspective. People have a tendency to take their personal experiences as weighing more than those of others.

[LaCroix]

Yeah, because pretty much the stated goals for the whole winter was -
1. stop Russian offensive, drain their manpower, train troops and gather material for spring offensive.
2. if russia does not start offensive - try using the winter for an early offensive (but winter did not really play game this year)

Ukraine did exactly what they said they would - Russia made only marginal gains by drowing the fields in bodies - lost whole Battalions worth of gear, irreplaceable gear, and lost a good part of their supplies before it even reached the frontline.

With the new range capabilities, we already see that they are softening up the Southern front, and I fully expect them to push through to Mariupol, at least close enough to blow up all trains, ports and roads that cand deliver supplies, and then blow up Kerch bridge, which will trap all units in Kherson/Zaphorisia and Crimea without land supply.

It is easy to atribute all the UA successes - and to be frank, the only real successes Russia had was a surprise attack - disregarding the huge areas that were retaken, the Donbas front is pretty much where it was in March/April - Russia needed 6 Months to take half of Bakhmut, and they only managed that by throwing thousands into the meat grinder, while shelling with all their reserves until they ran out of ammo.

There is no reason to assume Russia will become more professional, while UA is constantly being trained, and receiving better and better equipment - the range increase to 150 km strike range alone will pretty much halve the effective supply for Russia, due to having their storage to happen further away, and also puts pretty much all the occupied are under fire control, for the first time in this war.

There may or may be another mobilization, but there is no gear for these men, Russia can't make modern gear anymore, even the armata factory has still the same tarps and tools lying around as in the fotos from years ago, no spare parts, no nothing - all they have is dwindling stock of increasingly primitive gear. There may be a nuclear attack, but that could happen all the time, and Russia knows the price. But I do not see a scenario where the Russians suddenly become competent and UA falls apart.

China may or may not help, but at this time, I expect them to simply accept the sunk cost, and maybe even try to gain something, themselves. there is no gain for China to support Russia - they are already in a financial crisis, themselves, and taking Taiwan was always more of a hobby than a real concern.

[Lord Revan]

It's possible that this officer believes the "secret reserve" myth that says "Russia has plenty of modern troops and equipment just waiting to be used and it'll be any moment now", since if Russia did have plenty of modern troops it just hadn't deployed yet but could/would any second now yeah Ukraine wouldn't be able to beat that but honestly it doesn't seem very likely what Russia has such secret reserves just waiting to be used.

[Solauren]

If Russia has secret reserves they haven't used until now, then that proves their incompetent.

If all they wanted to do up until now was use up their old equipment and criminals, and so forth, there were far more profitable ways to do it.

Like sell the equipment to North Korea, and use the prisoners as slave labor.

[LaCroix]

There is no commercial or political benefit to the myth.

Want to use up old equipment - you could scrap it and make new one from it.
Want to get rid of criminals - honestly. Russia is not a cuddly bear, death penalty or gulag, problem solved.
Want to decrease population - casualties of young and productive people in an already over-aged population - demographics will go haywire over this.
Monetary gains? Nope- the economy, tax revenue and ressource exports are taking a nosedive - pretty sure Russia will start the printers by summer, and that is me being optimistic. They already blew 40% of their annual budget on Jan/Feb alone...

[LaCroix]

Yes, the russians ARE holding back good stuff - mainly their top fighter jets (of which we never saw more than a few during parades, and their Armata T14 tank - of which we also only saw parade units, and we know the armata production is shut down for years.

They don't want to use them because they are not combat ready - riddled with bugs, not operabele, and most importantly, only a handful of show models for export demonstration purpose - losing them to a Stinger or Javelin would be an economic and propaganda desaster.
They only have 6 AWACS left - one was just destroyed -irreplacabe for decades to come, so they have to hold the rest back.
Their prized warships have also been sunk and crippled left, right, and center - that's why they only come out at night to bombard civilians from afar.
Same for their bombers and the proven ineptitude of their air defense. Even having so much more than the Ukrainians, they are not able to stop their attacks against crucial targets.

As of now, a lot of countries have cancelled their russian arms contracts - because there will not be any delivery, soon (russia is only producing handfuls a month and using them faster), and second, because of the crap performance against western stuff. Nobody wants to buy second best.

Which also means that Russia has lost it's "rugged, reliable, just as good if not better " military export slogan - another damage.

Meanwhile, they are starting to field BTR50 from the 60s, and T64, both 60 years old, with targeting optics made in '83 (40 years old). And I promise you - techs are already sifting through the T34 stock, and reading up on their manuals and part lists, because they know they'll pulling those from storage, soon, too...

The myth is bonkers.

[LaCroix]

Just in - Japan and Belgium are freezing assets of individuals and organizations connected to the russian government.

This includes ministers, etc...

So all the money they fleeced and stashed "offshore" is gone.

Winning!

[LadyTevar]

Drone crashes in Moscow Region

A drone has crashed in the Moscow region in what was likely an attempt to target civilian infrastructure, the regional governor said.

Andrei Vorobyov was speaking after the defence ministry reported downing two Ukrainian drones in southern Russia.

Ukraine does not claim responsibility for attacks inside Russia.

Russian energy giant Gazprom operates a facility near the village of Gubastovo, about 100 km (62 miles) from Moscow, where the drone crashed.

Gazprom told Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti that its operations in the Kolomna region had not been interrupted.

The target of the drone in Kolomna "was probably a civilian infrastructure facility, which was not damaged", Mr Vorobyov posted on Telegram.

"There are no casualties or damage on the ground. The FSB (Russian security service) and other competent authorities are investigating," he added.

The drone appears to be a Ukrainian manufactured UJ-22 drone, which has a maximum autonomous flight range of 800 km - enough to reach the reported location from eastern Ukraine.

Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, tweeted a photo of the drone.

"It is more than 500km away from Russian border with Ukraine. Soon Putin might get very afraid to show himself in public as drones can reach far distances," he wrote alongside the photo.

If Ukraine was behind the Kolomna drone, it would be the closest attempted drone attack to the capital since Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago.

It came as the Russian defence ministry said its forces had downed two Ukrainian drones in southern Russia.

The ministry accused Kyiv of attempting to use drones "to attack civilian infrastructure in the Krasnodar region and the Adygea Republic", adding that they were "neutralised by electronic warfare units".

Moscow has accused Ukraine of being behind attacks on Russian military infrastructure during the war, but Kyiv has not confirmed this.

A Ukrainian drone attack on an airbase for bombers in southern Russia in December left three people dead, Moscow said. The Ukrainian military did not officially admit to the attack, but air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said the explosions were the result of what Russia was doing on Ukrainian soil.

Just weeks before, Russia accused Ukraine of a similar attack on the same airfield, which is home to bombers that have carried out missile attacks on Ukraine.

In August, a series of blasts rocked a military base in Crimea, in what was seen as a significant expansion of the conflict by Ukraine into Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine later claimed responsibility for that attack.

President Vladimir Putin told the FSB on Tuesday to intensify its activity against what he said was increasing espionage and sabotage by Ukraine and the West.

He instructed the FSB to strengthen security in territories occupied by Russia in eastern Ukraine. He said units deployed at the border must stop sabotage groups and prevent the passage of illegal weapons and ammunition.

"We need to beef up our counterintelligence in general, because Western special services have traditionally been very active in relation to Russia," he said.

"And now they have put in additional personnel, technical and other resources against us. We need to respond accordingly."

Russia's defence ministry said its fighter jets were involved in a training exercise in the country's western airspace on Tuesday, hours after airspace over St Petersburg was closed due to reports of an unidentified object.

[Lord Revan]

The myth is bonkers.

Yeah it's Bonkers and only becomes more stupid the more you think of it, that said I think people whose ego is dependent on Russia not being a joke are ones who subscribe in that myth because they don't want to loose face.

[Broomstick]

Now that I've had a bit of time to digest this and also don't have to dash off to work in 10 minutes...

That is unwarranted optimism, says a high-ranking Finnish officer who has been following the war on the ground since last April.

I agree we shouldn't get too cocky, but I'm not sure pessimism is warranted, either.

In the officer's opinion, the Ukrainian troops do not know how to attack and their training is at a standstill, as if straight from the Soviet Union.

I would be VERY surprised if Ukrainians didn't have some influence from the Soviet days. I expect training while in an active war zone could be described as "at a standstill" if you disregard the rather Darwinian "training" any troops will get while at actual war. This statement does seem to disregard that Ukrainian soldiers have been relocated to other nations for training there, and presumably they're rotating soldiers in an out as best they can to take advantage of this.

According to the officer, the only thing that has saved Ukraine so far is that Russia has succumbed to equally bad mistakes. However, it would not be worth making fun of Russia's mistakes.

Hmm... yes, Russia has made some bad mistakes, but Ukraine also has the backing of other nations, some of them quite powerful. It is foolish to disregard the support provided.

"The Russian troops have learned, but the Ukrainians have not," says the officer.

Um.... I question how much the Russians have learned, what with their enthusiasm for human-wave attacks. And driving boldly into minefields. And so on.

– Really bad leadership, poor tactical and combat technical skills. They have taken an example mainly from video games and movies, the officer says.

I dunno - while Ukraine hasn't won the war they've done some pretty impressive stuff with what they have.

Especially fatal for the continuation of the war is the fact that, in the opinion of the officer, the Ukrainian troops are incapable of fast-paced mobile warfare.

What about those "thunder runs" I've heard about?

Ukrainian counterattacks 'lucky ones'
Ukraine has, of course, regained control of some of the territories that Russia captured at the beginning of its major offensive in the direction of Kiev, Kharkiv and Herson.

"They were lucky," the officer acknowledges.

Rather dismissive. Maybe he's right, but maybe it's not all luck. Maybe some of it is Russian incompetence. Or maybe the Ukrainians aren't hopeless.

Also from Herson, Russia withdrew almost without resistance. The withdrawal of the Russians was mainly due to the fact that Ukraine destroyed the bridges over the Dnieper River, making it impossible to maintain troops.

Well, that sounds to me like strategy that worked.

Now the same lack of bridges prevents Ukraine from attacking the eastern bank of the river. And Ukraine has not attacked anywhere else either.

Maybe over the past year Ukraine has been more worried about what they have than trying to mount an attack to take back what was lost? Maybe they're biding their time for more weaponry? Something else?

– Russia will not lose this war, because Russia is a nuclear power. If Ukraine were to launch a major offensive against Crimea, then Russia would likely use a tactical nuclear weapon, the officer says.

So... what's he saying? Ukraine should just concede because a nuclear power wants their territory? How would he feel if it were Finland at war against a nuclear power, would he be so ready to give up on the possibility of winning?

A tactical nuke has never been used in warfare, we don't really know what the result would be. Sure, it would be devastating to the immediate target, but what would the reaction outside of that be?

– This is not the end of Ukraine, but the border is changing. It must be accepted, as it was in the Winter War. There is nothing you can do about it, the officer predicts.

I'm not an expert, but if I have my geography right he's basically saying that Ukraine should surrender proportionally twice as much of it's territory as Finland did after the Winter War.

In the officer's opinion, even the leadership of the Finnish state does not have a realistic view of the power relations of the war, since its situational picture is mainly based on public sources.

And.... what are his sources? Can they be independently verified?

Finnish education would be a perfect fit for Ukraine
The West is trying to turn the balance of power in Ukraine's favour with massive arms aid. The officer thinks it is necessary, but it is not enough.

According to him, the most effective way to change the situation would be better training for soldiers – and Finnish military training would suit Ukrainians very well.

"The Finnish army currently has the best training in the world against Russia. We have been practicing it for a hundred years, and we have fought two wars," the officer reminds us.

While I expect a person to have some pride in their country this sounds a bit jingoistic to me.

The interpreter of the Ukrainian armed forces used by the officer has suggested that a Finn should not be so blunt.

I thought the Finnish aptitude for bluntness was well known.

All three Finns agree on one thing: Finnish military training is the best in the world, which is why it should now also be offered to Ukraine

Funny... I hear that from a lot of militaries, that theirs is the best. They can't all be right.

[Solauren]

Just in - Japan and Belgium are freezing assets of individuals and organizations connected to the russian government.

This includes ministers, etc...

So all the money they fleeced and stashed "offshore" is gone.

Winning!

Now liquidate it, and turn it over to the Ukraine government to pay for (more?) military purchases.

Or, maybe bribe Wagner Group to overthrow Putin....

[Batman]

I'm sure they spread it around some-Belgium and Japan are both western countries (if Japan only by political affiliation) and I don't think the russian oligarchs were dumb enough to only stash their ill-gotten gains in countries that were virtually guaranteed to side with The West in case of any issues.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I'm sure they spread it around some-Belgium and Japan are both western countries (if Japan only by political affiliation) and I don't think the russian oligarchs were dumb enough to only stash their ill-gotten gains in countries that were virtually guaranteed to side with The West in case of any issues.

While a lot of Russian money undoubtedly flows through London, they've probably stashed the lion's share in China.
China is helping to prop up the Russian economy. Here’s how:

In the year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been hit by unprecedented Western sanctions and shut out of much of the global economy.

But China, which has declared “no limits” to its friendship with its northern neighbor, has thrown the Kremlin an economic lifeline, tempering the impact of its banishment from the global financial system.

Underscoring the closeness of the relationship, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin could hold a summit in Moscow in April or early May.

Here are three ways in which China, the world’s biggest buyer of commodities and a financial and technological powerhouse, has been propping up the Russian economy:

1. Buying its energy
Western sanctions against Moscow include an embargo on oil sales and a price cap on its crude, denial of access to SWIFT — the international messaging system that enables bank transactions — and the freezing of central bank assets held overseas.

These moves were aimed at weakening Russia’s ability to finance the war.

They’ve had an impact. Russia’s economy slid into recession in 2022, shrinking by 4.5%, according to the most recent estimate by the World Bank.

But Moscow’s fiscal revenues increased, according to the Russian government. That’s mainly thanks to high energy prices and Russia’s efforts to reroute exports to other willing buyers, such as China and India.

“China has supported Russia’s war economically in the sense that it has ramped up trade with Russia, which has weakened Western efforts to cripple Moscow’s military machine,” said Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group.

“Xi Jinping wants to deepen China’s relationship with an increasingly isolated Russia,” he said, adding that Moscow’s “pariah status” enables Beijing to exert more leverage on it to obtain cheap energy, advanced military technology and diplomatic support for China’s international interests.

otal trade between China and Russia hit a new record high in 2022, up 30% to $190 billion, according to Chinese customs figures. In particular, the energy trade has risen markedly since the onset of the war.

China bought $50.6 billion worth of crude oil from Russia from March to December, up 45% from the same period the previous year. Coal imports surged 54% to $10 billion. Natural gas purchases including pipeline gas and LNG, skyrocketed 155% to $9.6 billion.

It’s a boon for both sides. For Russia, it desperately needs new customers as its fossil fuels are shunned by the West. For China, now focused on getting its economy out of a slump, is in need of cheap energy to power its huge manufacturing industry.

“For Russia, this partnership is born of desperation,” said Keith Krach, former US Under Secretary of State for Economic growth, Energy and the Environment. “He [Putin] is looking for help wherever he can find it and Xi Jinping is all too willing to prey on Putin’s desperation.”

“As for China, its eagerness to boost Russia is the latest in a series of moves that reveal yet again that Beijing is an irresponsible actor,” Krach told CNN.

The two sides are planning to expand that partnership further, including a deal between Gazprom (GZPFY) and the China National Petroleum Corporation to supply more gas to China over the next 25 years.

“With China’s economy opening up in 2023, we can expect a further increase in Russian exports to China, including petroleum and other oil refined products,” said Anna Kireeva, an associate professor at Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

2. Replacing Western suppliers

Other than energy, Russia has also been spending billions on buying machinery, electronics, base metals, vehicles, ships and aircraft from China, as detailed in a US Congressional Research Service report from last May.

“Despite China’s reluctance to lend direct support to Russia’s war, bilateral ties will continue to grow because Beijing is opportunistic,” Thomas said. “Xi values Putin’s support as [a] strategic ballast against an increasingly hostile United States, but he is interested in Russia primarily because of what it can do for China,” he added.

Russia also needs to find substitutes for its imports from Western markets, such as cars and electronics.

“And here China with its industrial capacity cannot be rivaled by any other major producer,” Kireeva said.

Chinese car brands, including Havel, Chery, and Geely, have seen their market share surge from 10% to 38% in a year following the exit of Western brands, according to the most recent data from Russian research firm Autostat. And that share is likely to grow further this year, it has forecast.

In consumer electronics, Chinese brands accounted for about 40% of the smartphone market at the end of 2021. A year later, they’ve virtually taken over the industry with 95% market share, according to market research firm Counterpoint.

3. Providing an alternative to the US dollar
After some Russian banks were cut off from SWIFT, Moscow has been dropping the dollar for the Chinese yuan.

Russian companies have been using more yuan to facilitate the increased trade with China. Russian banks have also conducted more transactions in yuan to protect them from sanction risks, according to Kireeva.

The yuan’s share of the Russian foreign currency market jumped to 48% by November 2022 from less than 1% in January, according to Russian media, citing the head of the Moscow Exchange.

Russia briefly became the world’s third largest offshore trading hub for the yuan last July, behind Hong Kong and the United Kingdom, according to figures released by SWIFT. Since then, it has remained one of the top six markets for trading yuan — it wasn’t even in the top 15 before the Ukraine war.

Russia’s financial ministry has also doubled the share of yuan reserves the country’s sovereign wealth fund can hold to 60%, after a big chunk of its savings were frozen by international sanctions, according to Reuters.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said that Russia would only buy yuan in 2023 to refill the country’s sovereign wealth fund, Tass reported.

“Of all foreign currencies that the Russian [central] bank had its reserves in, it is only Chinese yuan that was not frozen and remains a ‘friendly’ one,” said Kireeva.

“We are likely to see further de-dollarization of Russia’s foreign trade in general and [an] increasing share of trade in national currencies with all states that are friendly or neutral to Moscow.”

With more yuan reserves, Moscow is able to use the Chinese currency to stabilize the ruble and its financial markets. The ruble has plunged by more than 40% against the euro and the dollar in the past year, and the main Russian stock index has fallen by more than a third.

Last month, Russia’s financial ministry announced it would resume foreign exchange interventions by selling yuan and buying rubles.

However, the relationship is not entirely frictionless.

UnionPay, the Chinese payments system, has reportedly stopped accepting cards issued by Russian banks over fears of international sanctions, according to Russian paper Kommersant.

“Large Chinese businesses are wary about secondary sanctions and are cautious about dealing with the Russian entities under sanctions or with the Russian market in general,” Kireeva said.

– CNN’s Michelle Toh contributed to this report

[LaCroix]

We are seeing signs of the Russians evacuating essential personel from the remainder of controlled Kherson... Just like in the earlier "goodwill" demonstrations.

That front has long been under firecontrol of Ukraine and most supplies were heading to the Donbas, anyway, so it seems they are retreating from there before they run out of stuff and get overrun.

Russia is again pouring meat into the Bakhmut meat grinder, with effect, as they managed to create a salient into the northern part of Bakhmut (but cut off from going to the city due to the flooded river). Ukraine is happy to pound that salient with mortars from 3 sides, decimating the mostly Wagner forces.

Bakhmut itself has mostly be evacuated, there are only the necessary forces remaining to keep the Russians needing to launch more waves at the defenses. Right now, it's calmer, as the Russians pour everything into the northern salient, hoping that this time, they finally have a decisive breakthrough... we'll see...

Also, Leopards are said to have been spotted in that area - unconfirmed, but I would not doubt that they immediately put the ones they got from Poland to work - timeframe would be about right for a quick deployment.

[Zwinmar]

That Finnish officer above reads like the ramblings of a boot butterbar fresh out of school who really doesn't know a think. The Ukrainian military is doing a phenomenal job, while not perfect they halted an advance that should have been impossible for them and in doing so have embarrassed Russia to such an extent that Russia's reputation will never recover.

I can see China going a couple of different ways and I am not sure which they are going for; The first is that they send support to Russia and the second is that they do just enough to keep Russia occupied in Ukraine then they sweep in behind them and take Vladivostok before pushing north. I think Russia is screwed at this point, all that is left is the dieing and how many are going to be destroyed along side.

[AniThyng]

That Finnish officer above reads like the ramblings of a boot butterbar fresh out of school who really doesn't know a think. The Ukrainian military is doing a phenomenal job, while not perfect they halted an advance that should have been impossible for them and in doing so have embarrassed Russia to such an extent that Russia's reputation will never recover.

I can see China going a couple of different ways and I am not sure which they are going for; The first is that they send support to Russia and the second is that they do just enough to keep Russia occupied in Ukraine then they sweep in behind them and take Vladivostok before pushing north. I think Russia is screwed at this point, all that is left is the dieing and how many are going to be destroyed along side.

I don't see how China seizing Vladivostok, if such thinking even exists on the Chinese side, wouldn't be a trigger for nuclear retaliation