UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I doubt that China would be so direct, if they can at all avoid it.

It would make more sense to support local separatist movements. Said support could range from money and diplomatic help, through to weapons, and maybe even to sending some 'little green men' of their own. All with the same level of plausible deniability as when Russia did it.

Whether any of this is remotely viable is another matter. But it's at least conceivable.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

That Finnish officer above reads like the ramblings of a boot butterbar fresh out of school who really doesn't know a think. The Ukrainian military is doing a phenomenal job, while not perfect they halted an advance that should have been impossible for them and in doing so have embarrassed Russia to such an extent that Russia's reputation will never recover.

I can see China going a couple of different ways and I am not sure which they are going for; The first is that they send support to Russia and the second is that they do just enough to keep Russia occupied in Ukraine then they sweep in behind them and take Vladivostok before pushing north. I think Russia is screwed at this point, all that is left is the dieing and how many are going to be destroyed along side.

I don't see how China seizing Vladivostok, if such thinking even exists on the Chinese side, wouldn't be a trigger for nuclear retaliation

Has China been making noises about wanting that area back?

[LadyTevar]

I found this interesting. I wonder what "bilateral interests" the US and Kazakhstan might have?

US Dept of State: Secretary Blinken's Travels

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev today in Astana, Kazakhstan to discuss a range of shared bilateral interests. Secretary Blinken reiterated the United States’ unwavering commitment to Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.

Secretary Blinken expressed the United States’ full support for the aims of President Tokayev’s reform agenda and looked forward to full implementation of the reforms for the benefit of Kazakhstan’s people. The Secretary also reiterated the U.S. commitment to working with government, civil society, and other Kazakh partners to advance the values shared by our two countries.

Secretary Blinken and President Tokayev also discussed the ways in which both countries can strengthen United States-Kazakhstan economic partnership and enhance regional connectivity.

[LaCroix]

Has China been making noises about wanting that area back?

It was settled 1991 and 2005, but Chinese "rightwing" is still being pissy about it and occasionally claims Hai Shen Wai is not russian...

If russia is getting broken up, China would definitely go behind the camera and probably want the return of "ocupied" lands in order to go along with the plan, rest assured.
Or if Russia really gets fucked up so bad that they do not need to be afraid of it. Pretty sure they would land grab, to make sure the area is "pacified" and "stabilized".

So far, they do their usual thing and try to fleece as much without pissing of the west too much - after all, Russia is only a tiny part of their commerce, so they will spout some quotes, but I doubt they would like to endanger 90% of their trade market in order to keep Russia afloat...

Always remember that China is not communist - they are firmly in love with making money, the politics are just a way to keep doing so.

[Broomstick]

I can see China going a couple of different ways and I am not sure which they are going for;

I think they're doing only a minimal amount until they truly see which way the wind will blow, then they'll throw in with the side they think they'll benefit most from.

Pretty sure Xi would love to have Putin's Russia as a vassal state.

I found this interesting. I wonder what "bilateral interests" the US and Kazakhstan might have?

Opposition to Russia's current expansion?

[wautd]

In case you want to start the day by reading some depressing news from Putin's totallitarian fascist state

A Russian man has been detained for making anti-war statements and his 12-year-old daughter temporarily taken into state care after the family faced pressure from authorities for drawings the girl made at school depicting Russia bombing a family in Ukraine.

Alexei Moskalyov, a single parent from the town of Yefremov, 150 miles south of Moscow, has been arrested for making anti-war statements on Odnoklassniki, a Russian social network.

He was detained on Wednesday, his house searched and his daughter put in a state-run shelter until her father is released or another guardian is found, a lawyer for Moskalyov said.

“She’ll be under state care until her father’s fate is decided,” said Vladimir Bilienko, a lawyer for Moskalyov. Asked what could happen if he was convicted, he said that if no close relative could be found, then a “single option would remain: an orphanage”.

“That would be a blow to a girl who has lived with her father her whole life,” he said by telephone. “So tomorrow we’re going to do everything possible to ensure that her father remains free. And so that she can live at home with him.”

The family said they had faced pressure from police since last April when Maria, a sixth-grader, refused to participate in a patriotic class at her school and made several drawings showing rockets being fired at a family standing under a Ukrainian flag and another that said “Glory to Ukraine!”.

School officials summoned the police, who questioned the girl and threatened her father. Moskalyov was subsequently fined about £350 for a post online in which he characterised the Russian army as “rapists”. The remarks came in the wake of revelations of alleged war crimes committed against civilians at Bucha in Ukraine.

Later that month, Moskalyov was told that agents from Russia’s FSB security service had come to the school and were questioning his daughter. When he arrived, he told OVD-Info, he was threatened, saying she would be taken away from him.

“For three and a half hours they told me that I was raising a child incorrectly: they said they would take her away from me, and they would put me in jail,” Moskalyov said in the interview with OVD-Info.

“We do think that the drawing was the main trigger that drew police attention to the father and because of that they looked at his social media,” Maria Kuznetsova, a spokesperson for OVD-Info, told the Guardian.

“It’s important to understand that the Moskalyov case is a part of a larger horrifying trend – as a part of a wider wartime crackdown the regime is routinely persecuting anti-war minors and their families, while squeezing the Russian youth into a heavily militarised culture,” Kuznetsova said.

“It’s important to understand that the Moskalyov case is a part of a larger horrifying trend – as a part of a wider wartime crackdown the regime is routinely persecuting anti-war minors and their families, while squeezing the Russian youth into a heavily militarised culture,” Kuznetsova said.

A medic gives the first aid to a wounded Ukrainian soldier near Bakhmut, the site of the heaviest battles with the Russian troops, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, 27 February 2023.
Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 371 of the invasion
Read more
“According to our data, at least 544 minors were detained in anti-war protests in the past year, and seven minors are currently criminally prosecuted for their anti-war positions. At least 19 anti-war teachers were fired … In particular, minors are targeted for sharing posts or comments about anti-war rallies, leaflets against mobilisation, holding solo demonstrations, expressing anti-war views during school events, demonstrating anti-war clothing, making anti-war inscriptions.”

In the Moskalyovs’ case, FSB agents suggested his daughter “lead some youth team in support of the Russian troops, but I gently refused – she has a lot of classes and clubs, there is no time left,” the father said. Since last year, Russia has ordered an overhaul of patriotic education, including the introduction of “conversations about important topics” at school that are seen as vehicles to indoctrinate students.

The school in Yefremov, a small city, had hosted other events in support of the Russian army, including a “festive event in support of a special military operation” called “For peace, for Russia, for the president”. The school repeatedly used the Latin letter “Z”, a symbol of the war.

Moskalyov faces three years in prison. He is being held at the city’s Investigative Committee offices and on Thursday will be sent to a temporary detention facility while awaiting arraignment.

His daughter was unlikely to be transferred to her mother’s care, said Bilienko. Nearly 10 other people in the community had also offered to take the girl into their care, he said, and that could be an alternative to an orphanage if approved by a court. “Thank God there are people like that,” said the lawyer.

Merely protesting against Putin's unprovoked war is seen as a criminal act that will destroy your life, while murderers, robbers and rapists get amnesty if you choose to join Wagner Group for 6 months. Putin really turned Russia in to a lawless terrorist state

In related news

Kherson torture centres were planned by Russian state, say lawyers
Investigators say sites set up during occupation of Ukrainian city were part of ‘calculated plan to terrorise’ locals

Evidence collected from Kherson in southern Ukraine shows Russian torture centres were not “random” but instead planned and directly financed by the Russian state, according to a team of Ukrainian and international lawyers headed by a UK barrister.

The city was under Russian control for eight months, from 2 March last year until Ukrainian forces entered the city on 11 November.

The lawyers, called the Mobile Justice Team, said on Thursday they had investigated 20 torture chambers in Kherson and concluded they were part of a “calculated plan to terrorise, subjugate and eliminate Ukrainian resistance and destroy Ukrainian identity”.

The evidence collected by Ukrainian prosecutors and analysed by the Mobile Justice Team includes plans used by Vladimir Putin’s occupying forces to establish, manage and finance the 20 torture centres in Kherson.

“The mass torture chambers, financed by the Russian state, are not random but rather part of a carefully thought-out and financed blueprint with a clear objective to eliminate Ukrainian national and cultural identity,” said the British barrister Wayne Jordash, who is leading the team.

More than 1,000 survivors have submitted evidence and more than 400 people have vanished from Kherson, the lawyers say.

The centres were run by the Russian security services, the FSB, as well as the Russian prison service and local collaborators, according to the lawyers, and were designed to subjugate, re-educate or kill Ukrainian civic leaders and ordinary dissenters.

The prisoners included anyone who had a connection to the Ukrainian state or Ukrainian civil society, such as activists, journalists, civil servants and teachers. Other victims said they were stopped randomly on the street and then detained for allegedly having “pro-Ukrainian” material on their phones.

The prisoners – male and female – were subject to physical beatings, electric shock torture and waterboarding. They were forced to learn and recite pro-Russian slogans, poems and songs, say the team.

It is unclear whether the more than 400 people who have disappeared were killed during the occupation or have been taken to Russia.

“Putin’s plan is to occupy Ukraine, subjugate the Ukrainian population to Russian rule and destroy Ukrainian identity. This plan is becoming clearer as the evidence of war crimes proliferates and as our investigations progress,” Jordash said.

He set up the Mobile Justice Team in May to help the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office investigate and prosecute alleged Russian war criminals. It is funded by the UK Foreign Office, the EU and the US state department and aims to fill a void in Ukraine’s national prosecution service through training and mentorship. Before the invasion, Ukraine had 8,000 prosecutors but none with specialised war crimes experience.

One of the torture facilities that the team examined was in the basement of an office block, and others were repurposed detention facilities, according to the team.

Reporters for the Guardian were among dozens of journalists who saw and heard evidence of torture immediately after the city was freed.

In November, the Guardian visited one juvenile detention centre and spoke to victims who had been kept there. The victims and witnesses who lived around the centre said they never saw the faces of the men who ran the centre as they wore balaclavas, and they dressed head to toe in black.

Three neighbours and two local shopkeepers outside the repurposed juvenile detention centre said they started hearing screams about six weeks after they saw Russian soldiers take over the building. The witnesses said they started to see people being taken in with bags on their heads, and some bodies being removed.

“They only beat me a little, I was lucky, but my cellmates were heavily beaten,” said Zhenia Dremo in November. Dermo described how Russian soldiers “attached one electro-rod to his [cellmate’s] balls and the other to his penis. Then for two hours I would sit there and listen to him scream.”

Another man, Roma, whom the Guardian also interviewed, was accused by the Russians of taking part in underground resistance activities during the occupation. Roma said the Russians attached rods to his testicles but then decided not to switch on the electrical charge.

But he said his cellmates, some of whom were kept in detention for the entire eight months of occupation, were subjected to electric shocks. “There was no life in their eyes, these were broken people,” Roma said.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Royal Navy victory as Iranian weapons bound for Russia captured

British and American forces have joined efforts to intercept an illegal weapons shipment from Iran, during the operation, which took place in the Gulf of Oman, US forces provided support for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and reconnaissance to Royal Navy. The coordinated efforts between the two nations resulted in the discovery of anti-tank-guided missiles and missile components on a small boat of Iranian origin. HMS Lancaster, a Royal Navy frigate, confiscated the illicit weapons shipment, which included Iranian versions of Russian 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, known as "Dehlavieh" in Iran, and medium-range ballistic missile components.

Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Naval Forces Central Command, US 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces said: "This is the seventh illegal weapon or drug interdiction in the last three months and yet another example of Iran's increasing malign maritime activity across the region.

"We will continue to work with our partners in pursuing any destabilizing activity that threatens regional maritime security and stability."

Putin’s army stuck in mud like Hitler's in 1941

Once frozen battlefields and snow-covered forests have transformed into impenetrable quagmires of thick sinking sludge as a result of the suddenly warmer weather.

The scenes around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut show roads turned into rivers and carefully cut trenches now full of knee-deep mud.

The conditions, a nightmare for most, will likely benefit Ukrainian troops hunkered down in their trenches defending the salt-mining town, the scene of some of the fiercest fighting.

Meanwhile, the Russian forces relying on rapid movement for their advances are already getting stuck in the mud.

“Both sides stay in their positions because, as you see, spring means mud. Thus, it is impossible to move forward,” Mykola, a commander of a front-line rocket launcher battery, said.

Moscow’s forces, aided by Wagner Group mercenaries, are desperately attempting to encircle the remaining Ukrainians in Bakhmut to force them to pull out.

Disregarding their heavy losses in a grinding, attritional battle, the Russians have slowly inched forward across a devastated, shell-scarred landscape towards Kyiv's defensive lines there for more than six months.

Buț despite finding the battle "more and more difficult", according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has refused to surrender the town. Although reports suggest military planners are preparing a possible withdrawal.

However, buoyed by Russian casualty rates, sometimes close to 1,000 men in a single week of fighting, there is talk from senior Ukrainian military officials about the prospect of bolstering their forces in Bakhmut.

The spring thaw, which has a history of ruining plans by armies to attack across Ukraine, may have opened a month-long window for Kyiv to cement its position there.

The muddy season – known in Russia as "rasputitsa", and sometimes nicknamed "General Mud" – plagued the advance of Hitler's Panzers on Moscow in 1941, and is often credited for saving the Soviet capital from German occupation.

"The early part of the spring and thwarting ground will make life more difficult for the Russian attacks, especially those on foot, as heavy mud will slow them," Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the 1st Royal Tank Regiment, said.

It will particularly hinder Russian efforts in Bakhmut.

Moscow's forces have resorted to human wave attacks on the coal-mining town, sending troops, often convicts recruited by Wagner or unfortunate conscripts, stumbling through the mud of no man's land towards Ukrainian trenches.

"Attacking Bakhmut in the mud will likely lead to more carnage for the Russians," Mr de Bretton-Gordon added.

Elsewhere on the battlefield, Russian armour is expected to suffer a similar fate when confronted by the mud.

While no longer built like narrow-tracked Panzers of 80 years ago, Moscow's fleet of tanks are particularly susceptible to boggy conditions because of their low-ground clearance.

More than a year ago, US intelligence officers reported that Vladimir Putin even delayed his initial invasion plans to wait for the ground to freeze.

The introduction of Western-made tanks, built much higher from the ground and less likely to get stuck, could just give Ukraine the advantage.

The change in weather also presents Kyiv's forces with a number of other chances to gain an upper hand in their war against the Russians.

Clearer skies might enable Moscow to deploy its superior air power, but it will also make it more vulnerable to Ukraine's ever-growing air defence shipments.

The mud should dry out and become packed hard as German-made Leopards and British Challengers reach the battlefield, which are expected to arrive at the end of the month.

Supported by a host of infantry fighting vehicles donated by its Western allies, Ukraine will be able to mount a Blitzkrieg-like ground offensive.

Night-vision systems will allow Kyiv to mount nighttime attacks, another advantage over their Russian enemy.

"It is likely that Ukrainian armoured strikes will look to bypass Russian positions and get behind them, rather than full frontal assaults to slug it out, which is the best the poorly-trained Russian troops appear to be able to do," Mr de Bretton-Gordon said.

[LadyTevar]

I found this interesting. I wonder what "bilateral interests" the US and Kazakhstan might have?

Opposition to Russia's current expansion?

That is my thoughts exactly. It's a former Russian Republic, they will not want to see Putin looking their way.

[Marko Dash]

Royal Navy victory as Iranian weapons bound for Russia captured

hey look some free stuff that can be donated to use against Russia, sounds like a Win/Win.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I found this interesting. I wonder what "bilateral interests" the US and Kazakhstan might have?

Opposition to Russia's current expansion?

That is my thoughts exactly. It's a former Russian Republic, they will not want to see Putin looking their way.

Russia plans to annex Belarus by 2030, leaked document reveals

The Kremlin intends for the two countries to share a single currency, taxation system and military by the end of the decade

Russia and Belarus will share a single currency, taxation system and military by the end of the decade, according to annexation papers drawn up by the Kremlin.

The leaked document details how Moscow hopes it will be able to finalise a creeping takeover of its closest ally as part of a larger plan to create a new “Greater Russia”.

Vladimir Putin has long discussed the prospect of recreating Russia’s former imperialist boundaries by incorporating Ukraine and Belarus within its borders.

The Russian leader invoked the notion of “Greater Russia” in a 5,000-word essay that is now seen as his justification for the war in Ukraine.

The 17-page “internal strategy paper”, first reported by a group of European newspapers, including the Kyiv Independent, was described as “authentic and plausible” by Western intelligence officers.

The Kremlin project to take over Belarus, which became independent from the Soviet Union in 1990, has been in place for almost 24 years.

Until now, the plan, dubbed “Union State”, was largely believed to be an association agreement based on mutual interests.

But according to the paper, Russia will continue to expand its military presence in Belarus until it becomes permanent and the Belarusian army complies with Russian regulations.

Putin’s forces launched a botched attempt to capture Kyiv from within Belarus, but his ally, Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator, has refused to join in with the invasion.

Elsewhere in its plans, the Kremlin is seeking to dictate that Minsk and Moscow share a single currency and taxation system.

It is unclear from the document whether that means the Russian ruble, but it is unlikely Russia would change its own currency.

“Russia’s goals regarding Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” said Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

“Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation,” he added.

The Union State plan, first drawn up in 1999, was put on the back burner until Belarus requested a discount on Russian oil.

The Kremlin agreed to lower its price in exchange for political concessions that effectively started the creeping takeover.

Putin has slowly been able to exert more control over Minsk because of Lukashenko’s unsteady position at home.

In 2021, the Russian leader supported his counterpart in maintaining power after Lukashenko faced a rebellion for fixing the presidential elections.

The pair are now on track to complete a “political integration” agreement by 2025, which cements much of the annexation plans in writing, allowing the Kremlin to complete its takeover in the following five years.

Belarus has said it would only join Putin’s war in Ukraine if Kyiv’s forces directly attack it.

On Tuesday, Minsk’s ministry of defence warned of a build-up of Ukrainian troops near the border.

“At present, a significant grouping of the Ukrainian army is concentrated in the immediate vicinity of the Belarusian-Ukrainian section of the state border,” the defence ministry said in a post on Telegram, according to a Reuters report.

“The probability of armed provocations, which can escalate into border incidents, has been high for a long time,” it continued, adding that it would take “measures to adequately respond” but would act in a restrained way.

[Solauren]

That Simpson meme about Russia revealing itself to still be the USSR in disguise comes to mind.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

At this point, ZDF's World War 3 is prophecy, not fiction. Just replace Vladimir Soshkin with Vladimir Putin, remove the entire 'Gorbachev must die' plotline, and you've got our current situation.

[Gerald Tarrant]

I found this interesting. I wonder what "bilateral interests" the US and Kazakhstan might have?

Opposition to Russia's current expansion?

That is my thoughts exactly. It's a former Russian Republic, they will not want to see Putin looking their way.

Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan specifically all have a signed agreement with Russia, the UK, and the US guaranteeing their territorial integrity and sovereignty. It's called the Budapest memorandum link. In exchange for returning their nuclear weapons to Russia and adhering to the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty they got:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United State of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations

I expect given Russia's decision not to adhere to the agreement Kazakhstan wants to know whether and how the US will honor its commitments.

As a caveat, because the memorandum is vague to security obligations, and is also unratified, there's an open question as to whether it is legally binding. For instance [edit]US sanctions[/edit] of Belarus for human rights concerns look like they violate one of the provisos of the memorandum.

[edit]Clarified who sanctioned Belarus[/edit]

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

That Simpson meme about Russia revealing itself to still be the USSR in disguise comes to mind.

Well, trying to pull that but it is more like this:

At this point, ZDF's World War 3 is prophecy, not fiction. Just replace Vladimir Soshkin with Vladimir Putin, remove the entire 'Gorbachev must die' plotline, and you've got our current situation.

ZDF's World War 3 is eerilly similar to what is happening now. Just hope that Putin isn't going to go with how Soshkin ended the entire film...

[LadyTevar]

Royal Navy victory as Iranian weapons bound for Russia captured

hey look some free stuff that can be donated to use against Russia, sounds like a Win/Win.

From what I understand, this is NOT the first illegal weapons shipment that's been caught, and all the others have been donated to Ukraine.

[LadyTevar]

Opposition to Russia's current expansion?

That is my thoughts exactly. It's a former Russian Republic, they will not want to see Putin looking their way.

Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan specifically all have a signed agreement with Russia, the UK, and the US guaranteeing their territorial integrity and sovereignty. It's called the Budapest memorandum link. In exchange for returning their nuclear weapons to Russia and adhering to the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty they got:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United State of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations

I expect given Russia's decision not to adhere to the agreement Kazakhstan wants to know whether and how the US will honor its commitments.

As a caveat, because the memorandum is vague to security obligations, and is also unratified, there's an open question as to whether it is legally binding. For instance [edit]US sanctions[/edit] of Belarus for human rights concerns look like they violate one of the provisos of the memorandum.

[edit]Clarified who sanctioned Belarus[/edit]

We already know that Belarus' president is firmly in Putin's back pocket. At this point it'd be very easy for Putin to claim Belarus, no one in their government or their Army would stand against it.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Royal Navy victory as Iranian weapons bound for Russia captured

hey look some free stuff that can be donated to use against Russia, sounds like a Win/Win.

From what I understand, this is NOT the first illegal weapons shipment that's been caught, and all the others have been donated to Ukraine.

The seventh, according to the article.

[Captain Seafort]

Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan specifically all have a signed agreement with Russia, the UK, and the US guaranteeing their territorial integrity and sovereignty.

As a caveat, because the memorandum is vague to security obligations, and is also unratified, there's an open question as to whether it is legally binding. For instance [edit]US sanctions[/edit] of Belarus for human rights concerns look like they violate one of the provisos of the memorandum.

Technical question: are these three separate agreements, or a single agreement signed by all six nations? If the latter, it could (and should) easily be argued that Belarus is in breach by allowing Russia to use its territory as a base of operations for the invasion of Ukraine.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Just watching a piece on the news showing the Ukrainian forces and how they're making use of old Soviet-era attack helicopters to provide close air support to their ground troops. We've heard a lot about them asking for fast jets, this is the first time I've heard of them asking for choppers as well.

[Gerald Tarrant]

Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan specifically all have a signed agreement with Russia, the UK, and the US guaranteeing their territorial integrity and sovereignty.

As a caveat, because the memorandum is vague to security obligations, and is also unratified, there's an open question as to whether it is legally binding. For instance [edit]US sanctions[/edit] of Belarus for human rights concerns look like they violate one of the provisos of the memorandum.

Technical question: are these three separate agreements, or a single agreement signed by all six nations? If the latter, it could (and should) easily be argued that Belarus is in breach by allowing Russia to use its territory as a base of operations for the invasion of Ukraine.

They're 3 separate agreements.

[Sidewinder]

This article proves the US government is trying to drag China into this war, which will likely backfire horrendously.

U.S. intel on China considering lethal aid for Putin's war was gleaned from Russian officials
March 3, 2023, 12:49 PM PST
By Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee

WASHINGTON – Initial U.S. intelligence suggesting that China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine was gleaned from Russian government officials, according to one current and one former U.S. official familiar with the intelligence.

U.S. officials then spent weeks corroborating the information from other sources of intelligence, the current and former officials said, and with allies who also brought additional streams of information.

<Snip.>

China has denied it is considering sending lethal aid to Russia, calling the U.S. accusation “disinformation.”

U.S. officials note that they have not seen any evidence of movement or a decision from China to take that step.

At a White House press briefing Thursday, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby was asked how serious the administration thinks China is about possibly sending weapons to Russia.

“We actually don’t know,” Kirby said.

Kirby added that the U.S. believes China has not taken it off the table but also has not seen any evidence that Beijing is moving toward sending lethal aid to Moscow.

The NSC declined to comment when contacted for this story.

The initial intelligence was vague about what specific systems or equipment China was considering providing to Russia, including whether they could provide drones beyond what are already available commercially, officials familiar with the intelligence said.

“There are varying levels of confidence about how serious China is about this,” a second senior U.S. official said.

Emphasis mine. Remember how others on this board voiced doubts about claims Iraq continued development of WMDs in 2002-2003, which then-President Bush used to justify invading Iraq? Now President Biden and his puppeteers are claiming China- a nation with ACTUAL WMDs- is aiding Russia- another nation with ACTUAL WMDs- and trying to justify actions against China.

This will not end well.

[Dominus Atheos]

No one is trying to justify actions against China. I realize this is a very difficult concept for tankies to wrap there heads around, so I'll state it plainly:

Provided they don't invade any other country, nobody care enough about the country you stan for enough to bother wanting to invade them. If they keep inside their own borders, nobody gives a single fuck about anything it does, not enough to actually do anything about it.

[Ralin]

No one is trying to justify actions against China. I realize this is a very difficult concept for tankies to wrap there heads around, so I'll state it plainly:

Provided they don't invade any other country, nobody care enough about the country you stan for enough to bother wanting to invade them. If they keep inside their own borders, nobody gives a single fuck about anything it does, not enough to actually do anything about it.

Cool, so you think it's just a coincidence that at about this same time the US government is adding fuel to the "COVID was a leaked from a Chinese lab (and probably intended as a bioweapon)!!!" conspiracy theory? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903

And whatever the fuck was going on with that balloon thing.

[Jub]

Sabres get rattled and tankies start ranting about WWIII...

[Dominus Atheos]

No one is trying to justify actions against China. I realize this is a very difficult concept for tankies to wrap there heads around, so I'll state it plainly:

Provided they don't invade any other country, nobody care enough about the country you stan for enough to bother wanting to invade them. If they keep inside their own borders, nobody gives a single fuck about anything it does, not enough to actually do anything about it.

Cool, so you think it's just a coincidence that at about this same time the US government is adding fuel to the "COVID was a leaked from a Chinese lab (and probably intended as a bioweapon)!!!" conspiracy theory? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903

And whatever the fuck was going on with that balloon thing.

Both of those things were 100% about domestic politics, the balloon thing made Joe Biden look weak, and if Covid was leaked from a lab, it proves that Donald Trump was right and he should still be president. (somehow, don't ask me how)

Nobody gives a single solitary fuck about china, unless they invade Taiwan. If anybody polled "should we attack china?" it would be 99% "no". Nobody in this country gives two shits about russia or china, unless America is called on in it's (self appointed) role as "defender of freedom".

Don't threaten (whatever America decides to call) freedom (or oil) outside your own shitty country and I guarantee nobody inside this country cares enough to bother attacking you.