UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[bilateralrope]

And whatever the fuck was going on with that balloon thing.

My understanding there is that China did have a spy balloon fly over the US. The US shot it down once it was safely over water. Then some performative outrage about it.

Then the US probably used a $400k missile to shoot down a $12 balloon.

[Broomstick]

The USAF shot down a $12 balloon with a $400k missile in part to appease the unwashed masses, which from a political viewpoint might have been money well spent even if it's ridiculous from other viewpoints.

Although the war in Ukraine has demonstrated just how dangerous inexpensive devices can be.

[Solauren]

Ralin, I think you're over-reacting and misreading.

Any intelligence gained from Russian officials is going to be closely examined, and triple verified (at least) from outside sources before being considered anything resembling reliable.

Because anything Russian officials state that says 'Another big power is considering helping us', could be Russia trying to get the US to do something stupid. i.e Russia says China is going to help them, so the US pisses off China, CAUSING China to help Russia.

US Intelligence knows this.

What that article can be summed up as saying is 'People have said it, it's possible, but US Intelligence doesn't believe it's happening at this time'.

The rest is just padding to "sell newspapers".

As for the balloon thing -
A balloon that appears to be Chinese in origin floated over North American airspace, and was shot down.

[Sidewinder]

And whatever the fuck was going on with that balloon thing.

My understanding there is that China did have a spy balloon fly over the US. The US shot it down once it was safely over water. Then some performative outrage about it.

As I commented (as Aim9snake) on a right-winger's blog:

The panic over the "spy balloon" is ridiculous. Think logically: How can one control the direction a balloon will go, after it's launched? Answer: It cannot be controlled unless it's fitted with a propulsion system, i.e., a propeller and a motor- which are not visible on the balloon everyone is panicking over.

That means there is no guarantee the "spy balloon" will actually fly over anything worth spying on, or remain over such a thing long enough to collect useful intelligence. That means any spy equipment it carries, will likely end up dead weight.

It's certainly conceivable the Chinese military will add spy equipment to what is actually a weather balloon, on the off chance it will actually fly over something worth spying on; but as this chance is laughably miniscule, I think the Chinese military will insist the equipment be cheap, to avoid wasting money. The cheapness will further diminish its chances of catching anything worthwhile, but the "spy balloon" wasn't a worthwhile platform in the first place.

And why use an irreplaceable F-22 stealth fighter to shoot down the defenseless balloon? Shouldn't the Air Force conserve its remaining flight hours for use on something worthwhile, e.g., shadowing J-20 stealth fighters over the Taiwan Strait?

China is not choosing to start shit with the US, much less a NUCLEAR WAR; it's the other way around.

[Steve]

The USAF shot down a $12 balloon with a $400k missile in part to appease the unwashed masses, which from a political viewpoint might have been money well spent even if it's ridiculous from other viewpoints.

Although the war in Ukraine has demonstrated just how dangerous inexpensive devices can be.

Which balloon was this? Since the first big one, the one that got shot down off Myrtle Beach, probably had tens of thousands of dollars worth of electrical equipment hanging from it.

[Broomstick]

As I commented (as Aim9snake) on a right-winger's blog:

The panic over the "spy balloon" is ridiculous. Think logically: How can one control the direction a balloon will go, after it's launched? Answer: It cannot be controlled unless it's fitted with a propulsion system, i.e., a propeller and a motor- which are not visible on the balloon everyone is panicking over.

That's just fucking ignorance about how balloons actually work. You certainly can steer a balloon even without a propulsion system - you raise and lower the altitude to find an air mass going in the direction you want to go. Sure, it's limited, but jet streams and major air currents are no longer mysteries, and from that altitude a camera surveys a broad area. This is nothing new, balloons have been used since the 19th Century for all sort of things, they aren't entirely random thing.

And why use an irreplaceable F-22 stealth fighter to shoot down the defenseless balloon? Shouldn't the Air Force conserve its remaining flight hours for use on something worthwhile, e.g., shadowing J-20 stealth fighters over the Taiwan Strait?

Actually, we are in fact able to replace an F-22 since we're the folks who make them and the tooling still exists. Granted, we aren't currently producing them, and it would cost a chunk of money, but we do have 180+ total. Losing one would be a shame, but not a disaster. But, that aside...

USAF pilots are required to fly a certain number of hours per month. This is necessary to keep their skills sharp. If that F-22 had not been tasked with shooting down the balloon it still would have been doing something else, like a training mission or a fly-over a stadium or whatever else might need doing. Again, ignorance of aviation - the machines and pilots are not mothballed in some hangar, they are actively out and about anyway. Likewise, missiles need to be periodically tested/fired to make sure they're still operational, so if that missile had not been expended in downing the spy balloon then it would have likely been used on something else, like a target drone.

China is not choosing to start shit with the US, much less a NUCLEAR WAR; it's the other way around.

Please. Calm down. Neither China nor the US wants an actual shooting war between them, much less something nuclear. But national militaries do engage in posturing, they poke and prod looking for weaknesses.

Personally, I think the reaction among the general public was overblown, but understandable given the average person's ignorance of these things and the influence of scaremongers in various media.

[Broomstick]

The USAF shot down a $12 balloon with a $400k missile in part to appease the unwashed masses, which from a political viewpoint might have been money well spent even if it's ridiculous from other viewpoints.

Although the war in Ukraine has demonstrated just how dangerous inexpensive devices can be.

Which balloon was this? Since the first big one, the one that got shot down off Myrtle Beach, probably had tens of thousands of dollars worth of electrical equipment hanging from it.

It was a balloon shot down over Lake Huron, between Michigan and Canada

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Putin’s troops ‘left to fight with shovels’ as Russia suffers ammunition shortage

Russian troops are likely using shovels for "hand-to-hand" combat in Ukraine because of an ammunition shortage, UK intelligence has said.

In its update on the war on Sunday, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said Vladimir Putin’s troops were ordered to attack a Ukrainian position armed just with “firearms and shovels” late last month.

It said the shovel was an MPL-50 - a tool that was designed in 1869 and has not changed much since. The MoD said it “highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting” that has characterised much of the war.

It said: “In late February 2023, Russian mobilised reservists described being ordered to assault a Ukrainian concrete strong point armed with only ‘firearms and shovels’. The ‘shovels’ are likely entrenching tools being employed for hand-to-hand combat.

“The lethality of the standard-issue MPL-50 entrenching tool is particularly mythologised in Russia. Little changed since it was designed in 1869, its continued use as a weapon highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting which has come to characterise much of the war.

“Recent evidence suggests an increase in close combat in Ukraine. This is probably a result of the Russian command continuing to insist on offensive action largely consisting of dismounted infantry, with less support from artillery fire because Russia is short of munitions.”

The MoD did not say where the battles where shovels were being used took place.

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has blamed Russian deaths in Ukraine on the recent shortage. He recently posted an image of his dead troops in Ukraine, calling for ordinary Russians to help.

Last month he said in a message to his press service: “These are the guys who died yesterday because of so-called ‘shell shortages’. There are five times more of them than there should have been,”

He called for Russians to demand the defence ministry give ammunition to his troops, though he did not want them to resort to protests.

Ukraine is withdrawing from Bakhmut, or rather what's left of it.

[Broomstick]

How long until they devolve to sticks and stones?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Wagner chief issues ultimatum to Putin as he threatens to let 'frontline collapse'

The leader of the Wagner Group has demanded that the Russian military send his mercenary troops ammunition immediately. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and leader, who is on the frontline in the fight for Bakhmut, issued the demand under a veiled ultimatum. He warned that if his troops did not receive any more ammunition, they would retreat and the entire Russian frontline would collapse.

The threat was delivered in a four-minute video message recorded Sunday night near Bakhmut.

Mr Prigozhin said the retreat of mercenaries from Bakhmut due to "ammunition shortage" would lead to the collapse of the front up to the Russian border "or even further," adding Crimea would also fall to Ukraine.

The Wagner chief said: "If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse.

"The situation will be unpleasant for all military formations protecting Russia's interests."

He said claimed that the Russian army would be "forced to stabilise the front" while "Crimea falls".

The Wagner Chief suggested that the Russian military brass was trying to "set up" his forces to be the scapegoats for a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

He said: "What if they want to set us up and say we are villains, and that's why we aren't given ammo and weapons and allowed to reinforce personnel, including convicts?"

Hitting out at Russia's regular army, Mr Prigozhin described his mercenaries as the "cement" holding the whole war effort together.

He said: "Wagner is the cement. We are drawing the entire Ukrainian army on ourselves, breaking them and destroying them."

The threatening video message comes just a day after Mr Prigozhin boasted that Wagner was on the brink of victory in Bakhmut.

The Wagner boss has increasingly spoken out against the Russian military elite in recent months.

He publicly accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of committing "treason" by trying to "destroy" Wagner out of jealousy of his victories in Ukraine.

Mr Prigozhin has also repeatedly praised the Ukrainian army as a worthy and capable adversary.

This comes as intense fighting continues to reign in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces still control the city despite the street fighting, according to the deputy mayor of Bakhmut, Oleksandr Marchenko.

Top Ukrainian commander, Volodymyr Nazarenko, said that Russian forces lacked ammunition and were shelling the city chaotically.

[bilateralrope]

Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.

[LadyTevar]

Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.
Russia forced to use 60-year-old tanks because of heavy losses, says UK

Russia has been forced to turn to 60-year-old tanks because it is suffering heavy losses in its war against Ukraine, the UK has said.

An official intelligence update from the Ministry of Defence said the country’s military had taken 800 T-62 main battle tanks (MBTs), first introduced in 1961, out of storage “to make up for previous losses” in the ongoing conflict.

Russia has also deployed an unspecified number of Russian BTR-50 armoured personnel carriers, first used in war in 1954, in Ukraine for the first time and the update said it may bring more of both these types of vehicles into service as the war continues.

While some of these vehicles “have received upgraded sighting systems which will highly likely improve their effectiveness at night,” the intelligence update said, “both these vintage vehicle types will present many vulnerabilities on the modern battlefield, including the absence of modern explosive reactive armour”.

“There is a realistic possibilitiy that even units of the 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA), supposedly Russia’s premier tank force, will be re-equipped with T-62s to make up for previous losses,” it added.

It comes as the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force pleaded for ammunition for his troops around the eastern Ukrainian city.

“If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said on the weekend.

“The situation will not be sweet for all military formations protecting Russian interests,” he warned.

Meanwhile, it also comes amid reports that Russian soldiers are likely using “shovels” in hand-to-hand combat because of depleted stock.

The British defence ministry described how in late February Russian troops were ordered to attack a Ukrainian position armed just with “firearms and shovels”.

Russia has lost at least 1,780 tanks since the outset of the conflict in February 2022, according to an analysis by open-source intelligence platform Oryx.

Bakhmut is turning into no-man's land- Ukraine isn't holding it and Russia isn't taking it.

[Solauren]

I wonder if Wagner group would switch sides if this continues? If the Front would collapse without the Wagner group, what would happen if they changed sides?

[Mr Bean]

I wonder if Wagner group would switch sides if this continues? If the Front would collapse without the Wagner group, what would happen if they changed sides?

The Russians would should then or the Ukrainians would have a trial and shoot them. Wagner mercs are everything from criminal scum, third world mercs or Russian citizens with a generous helping of "volunteers" who are there least they be shot. The solid core of Wagner is still private army mercs from every place on the planet but it seems Wagner uses them to keep the other groups in line these days not to fight.

[LadyTevar]

I wonder if Wagner group would switch sides if this continues? If the Front would collapse without the Wagner group, what would happen if they changed sides?

They won't switch sides, but I would like to see what happens to the Russian Front if they did pull back and/or ignore orders (like they have in the past).

[Lord Revan]

Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.

Makes you wonder if Putin has gotten himself so surrounded by yes men that what he hears of the state of things and how they actually are, are too very different things. So like Hitler in 1945 when Berlin was fought over Putin is making plans based on units and material that exists only on paper.

I mean we've seen several times that upsetting Putin results on the person taking a walk out of the nearest open window, so it's not unreasonable to assume that those close to him feed him what he wants to hear instead of how things actually are, as much as possible, so a total disaster becomes a minor delay or set back.

[LadyTevar]

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.

Makes you wonder if Putin has gotten himself so surrounded by yes men that what he hears of the state of things and how they actually are, are too very different things. So like Hitler in 1945 when Berlin was fought over Putin is making plans based on units and material that exists only on paper.

I mean we've seen several times that upsetting Putin results on the person taking a walk out of the nearest open window, so it's not unreasonable to assume that those close to him feed him what he wants to hear instead of how things actually are, as much as possible, so a total disaster becomes a minor delay or set back.

Speaking of people Putin getting upset with -- there's rumors that the Chechnyan Leader Ramzan Kadyrov has been Poisoned. It seems clear he's suffering severe kidney issues, perhaps going as far as Renal Failure. Sources say he's brought the United Arab Emirate’s chief nephrologist, to Chechnya’s capital for treatment, as Kadyrov doesn't trust Russian Doctors

[Broomstick]

I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.

Perhaps Putin views this as a way to eliminate a potential threat to his power?

[Rogue 9]

Prigozhin owes his entire position and fortune to Putin; he got his start in government contracts as a caterer of all things and ingratiated himself to Putin when he was deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, riding his coattails ever since. Putin has to know that. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[bilateralrope]

Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.

It's possible he is being setup to take the blame for when Putin orders the retreat.

[Marko Dash]

I wonder if Wagner group would switch sides if this continues? If the Front would collapse without the Wagner group, what would happen if they changed sides?

Wagner isn't really an independent PMC though it's more the 'plausible deniability' arm of the Russian military, or Putin's personal janissaries.

[bilateralrope]

I wonder if Wagner group would switch sides if this continues? If the Front would collapse without the Wagner group, what would happen if they changed sides?

Wagner isn't really an independent PMC though it's more the 'plausible deniability' arm of the Russian military, or Putin's personal janissaries.

Can that plausible deniability aspect survive the Ukraine war ?

Do they have any value to Putin without it ?

[LaCroix]

There are interesting developments concerning Bakhmut and Wagner... Which is why Ukraine is not quite giving up on the town, yet

Wagner group is what is driving the northern arm of the encirclement.
Defenders did blow up the bridges and a small dam, making the rivers that run north and through the city impassable for Russians.

That also means that the whole northern salient /Wagner) now can not move into Bakhmut and is now funnelled against a river.

So they are getting shot at by people they can not use their human wave tactics against, and on the north and west, they are against emplaced tanks and heavy equipment. There is a non-neglible chance that an attack from the northern UA forces, which are well rested reserves with heavy equipment, could cut the Wagner salient (with all forces pretty much concentrated on the western end where they push hard) completely off the Russian territory.

Given how much the UA 'loves' the Wagner forces, they might go for it, even if it means higher losses, as taking the main body of Wagner out would be a significant loss for the invading side.

[Ralin]

Honestly that all sounds less like an ultimatium and more like a factual statement on Wagner guy's part.