UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[LaCroix]

News are in - Russian deficit for jan-feb 34 bn$.
Thats 88% of the planned annual deficit.

Revenue is down 46%, expenses up 51%, even though they managed to save some on expenses (which will totally not bite them in the ass, soon) and a light rebound in gas sales, as some countries refill storage after winter.

Which means that in March, the full deficit will be reached, either way.
Depending on whether they can keep the gas sales up, and not have to increase spending, 2023 deficit will be between 150 and 250 bn $

Thats about 6-10% of GDP. Not good numbers.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I wonder if Wagner group would switch sides if this continues? If the Front would collapse without the Wagner group, what would happen if they changed sides?

Wagner isn't really an independent PMC though it's more the 'plausible deniability' arm of the Russian military, or Putin's personal janissaries.

Can that plausible deniability aspect survive the Ukraine war ?

Do they have any value to Putin without it ?

According to the latest Kings and Generals video on YouTube, there is a move afoot to bring Wagner under the control of the Russian army, along with the separatist militias. K&G cites this as part of a power struggle between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu; with the latter seemingly winning.

If this really is happening, it certainly suggests that Prigozhin is slipping out of favour. Judging by how little Wagner has achieved, and at such cost, he's becoming the Mister Fixit who couldn't fix it. One wonders if his decline could leave Putin vulnerable in turn.

[bilateralrope]

I guess we will find out when one of them goes out the window. Or maybe something more obviously ordered by Putin.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I guess we will find out when one of them goes out the window. Or maybe something more obviously ordered by Putin.

That's where things could get interesting. The President's Chef vs the Minister of Defence. The beloved leader's favourite (for now) vs the Big Government man. The courtier vs the technocrat.

[Solauren]

... the hired Goon vs the actual military.

[Captain Seafort]

... the hired Goon vs the actual military.

The hired goon's thugs seem to have been more successful than the so-called "actual military" recently. While making General Melchett look like the reincarnation of Caesar and Alexander combined by comparison.

[Solauren]

... the hired Goon vs the actual military.

The hired goon's thugs seem to have been more successful than the so-called "actual military" recently. While making General Melchett look like the reincarnation of Caesar and Alexander combined by comparison.

I was more thinking 'Putin removes the military guy for the thug that was accusing everyone of treason for not backing his mercs, how does the actual military take this?'

[LaCroix]

They sure are trying to fuck over Wagner pretty bad.

The Wagner opera, a drama in 4 acts:

Act one: We withhold ammo supply from Wagner during their offensive.
Act two: Priggy boy complains loudly, so we reassure him that we're good now, and that supplies are on the way.
Act three: Wagner using their last reserves up in combat, trusting our promise.
Act four: We lied.

[Dominus Atheos]

The impression I got several months ago was that Wagner was staking their entire reputation on Bakhmut. That after Ukraine ran the Russians out of Kharkov and the north, Wagner had explicitly volunteered to be the tip of the spear of renewed counter-offensive that started in Bakhmut. If they made that claim, it stands to reason that since Wagner has failed to take Bakhmut, Wagner's reputation is in the shitter, and that's why this is happaning now.

Where I got that impression from several months ago:

Ukraine update: Russia suffered a massive defeat, now they're venting their anger on one small city

Sunday September 11, 2022

Over the last day, Russia’s assault on positions around the town of Bakhmut have increased enormously. They’re trying not just to show that there’s something behind their claims about “regrouping,” but to create a “win” that they can talk about in Russian media.

What do Russian generals want? A win. Where do they want it? Bakhmut. And to get it, they are staging near continuous attacks in which artillery bounds Ukrainian positions while “zerg waves” of Russian infantry attempt to storm Ukrainian positions. The fighting may be the most intense of the entire invasion. So intense that at one point on Saturday, Russia reportedly agreed to a brief armistice in order to remove mounds of bodies along a slope leading up to Ukrainian positions.

Casualties for Russian troops in this assault are insanely high. But they are also extremely high for Ukrainian forces. As nimble as Ukraine has proven in its high-speed run across Kharkiv Oblast, the people fighting at Bakhmut are still in a position of being under a heavy artillery barrage, including regular strikes from MLRS and even thermobaric weapons. Their losses are also tremendous.

So much so that on Sunday morning there were concerns about whether sufficient Ukrainian forces remained at some locations to simply shoot the Russians who were coming at them across fields that had been stripped of any cover by days of continuous fire. Russian forces, including Wagner Group mercenaries, had reportedly captured a large factory at the edge of Soledar and were pushing into the streets of that town.

As of the time of this writing (7PM ET, 3AM in Kyiv), Ukrainian forces were reportedly still holding positions in Bakhmut and Soledar, but they continue to be under what is described as unrelenting assault. Mercenaries from the Wagner Group had reportedly reached an industrial area on the edge of Bakhmut, and were exchanging withering fire with Ukrainian troops, all while Russian artillery continues to pound Ukrainian positions near the center of town.

A few days later:

September 18, 2022

But … so what? Who cares that Russia has gotten Pisky, or Kodema? They won’t capture Bakhmut, but if they did, also so what? It’s patently absurd that at the same time that Ukraine is notching gains in Kherson, Kharkiv, and northern Luhansk Oblasts, Russia is wasting time, men, and material pushing forward in a region that offers no strategic payoff.

The reason is simple: Russia isn’t actually in charge in this corner of the front.

This is Wagner PMC (private military contractor) territory. Russian forces lack a unified command: there’s the Russian army (divided into sectors led by separate military districts), VDV (airborne)corps, Luhansk proxies, Donetsk proxies, Rosgvardia (Putin’s personal army, the national guard), the Chechen Kadyrovites, and Wagner mercenaries. The result is a real clusterfuck, both in command, in cooperation and communication, in motivation, and in agendas.

So we laughed at pro-Russian sources for celebrating the capture of that hill near Kodema while the entire northern front was collapsing. Yet they were genuinely celebrating in Wagner circles, and in their Telegram channel, they reacted angrily at rumors that they were redeploying to help hold the line in Kharkiv oblast.

The information about the transfer of forces of the "Wagner Group" to the Izyum direction, as well as near Kupyansk, is not true.

"Musicians" [their self-styled nickname] continue their work on the fronts assigned to them, and at the moment they are almost, if not the only ones, who not only hold the front in Ukraine, but also advance it. No one is going to be removed from especially difficult areas to plug holes.”

In short, “We’re the only ones making any progress, so fuck off anyone else that needs our help!” Perhaps this attitude might hold water if Wagner was gaining anything other than a sad hill at Kodema or the empty husk of the town of Pisky, across the street from Russian-occupied Donetsk city. But Wagner’s corporate leadership apparently decided that “we’re the only group in Russia making progress” was a much better business development slogan than “we’re all in this together.”

So yes, it’s true, Wagner forces are inching forward here or there, but in a militarily insignificant slice of front.

[madd0c0t0r2]

News are in - Russian deficit for jan-feb 34 bn$.
Thats 88% of the planned annual deficit.

Revenue is down 46%, expenses up 51%, even though they managed to save some on expenses (which will totally not bite them in the ass, soon) and a light rebound in gas sales, as some countries refill storage after winter.

Which means that in March, the full deficit will be reached, either way.
Depending on whether they can keep the gas sales up, and not have to increase spending, 2023 deficit will be between 150 and 250 bn $

Thats about 6-10% of GDP. Not good numbers.

What does a russian default even look like?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russian officers stage mutiny and 'abandon attack' on key town after losses

Russian military officers are reportedly refusing to launch a new attack on the Ukrainian town of Vugledar after suffering heavy losses in a tank battle. It has been claimed that Russia lost around 130 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles in a recent offensive to take the town, located in the Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian military officers told the Kyiv Post that the Russian brigade refused orders to continue attacking the town.

One was quoted as saying: "The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders - to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation."

The Russian military is reportedly close to taking the town of Bakhmut, also in the east of Ukraine, but this battle has also exposed divisions within Russian ranks.

Yevgeny Priogzohin, leader of the Wagner private military group, has accused Russian forces of withholding ammunition from them.

Prigozhin said: "I'm knocking on all doors and sounding the alarm about ammunition and reinforcements, as well as the need to cover our flanks.

"If everyone is coordinated, without ambition, screw-ups and tantrums, and carries out this work, then we will block the armed forces of Ukraine. If not, then everyone will be s*****d."

He also warned that the "front will collapse" of Wagner stops helping Russia.

Prigozhin added: "If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse. The situation will not be sweet for all military formations protecting Russian interests."

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Russian officers stage mutiny and 'abandon attack' on key town after losses

Russian military officers are reportedly refusing to launch a new attack on the Ukrainian town of Vugledar after suffering heavy losses in a tank battle. It has been claimed that Russia lost around 130 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles in a recent offensive to take the town, located in the Donetsk oblast.

Ukrainian military officers told the Kyiv Post that the Russian brigade refused orders to continue attacking the town.

One was quoted as saying: "The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders - to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation."

The Russian military is reportedly close to taking the town of Bakhmut, also in the east of Ukraine, but this battle has also exposed divisions within Russian ranks.

Yevgeny Priogzohin, leader of the Wagner private military group, has accused Russian forces of withholding ammunition from them.

Prigozhin said: "I'm knocking on all doors and sounding the alarm about ammunition and reinforcements, as well as the need to cover our flanks.

"If everyone is coordinated, without ambition, screw-ups and tantrums, and carries out this work, then we will block the armed forces of Ukraine. If not, then everyone will be s*****d."

He also warned that the "front will collapse" of Wagner stops helping Russia.

Prigozhin added: "If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse. The situation will not be sweet for all military formations protecting Russian interests."

... welp, February Revolution, Nuclear Bongolo anyone?

[LadyTevar]

Russian officers stage mutiny and 'abandon attack' on key town after losses

And so it begins.
Remember, the February Revolution was just the start. The OCTOBER Revolution finished the Empire.

[Lord Revan]

It should be noted that Nicholas II was extremely unpopular by the 1917 revolution, so much in fact that more famous revolution (well set of related revolutions) was the second one during his reign. The first having been in 1905 following the defeat in the Russo-Japanese war.

So we can't really say that if there's a revolution in the Russian Federation which of the 2 here it will resemble.

[Ralin]

Ukrainian military officers told the Kyiv Post that the Russian brigade refused orders to continue attacking the town.

One was quoted as saying: "The leaders of the brigade and senior officers are refusing to proceed with a new senseless attack as demanded by their unskilled commanders - to storm well-defended Ukrainian positions with little protection or preparation."

So before we start talking about mutiny and revolution, what's the source on this other than the Ukrainian military? Because I can think of a lot of scenarios where an ordered attack doesn't happen because the officers on the ground decided it was a bad idea and said so without it being either of those things.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Yeah, the sad thing is that we're probably going to have a world filled to the gills with WMDs because this war shows that only WMD capability (particularly nuclear) is the only thing guarding your sovereignty.

Make of that as you will.

[Ralin]

Yeah, the sad thing is that we're probably going to have a world filled to the gills with WMDs because this war shows that only WMD capability (particularly nuclear) is the only thing guarding your sovereignty.

Make of that as you will.

How so? I think the Ukrainian military is doing a pretty good job defending their sovereignty all by itself.

[LaCroix]

According to latest reports, Ukraine has now long range capabilities ranging in thousand(s) of km with 300kg payload.

Remember how they were converting larger RC 'chessna-type' airplanes into long range drones to attack targets close to Moscow?

They started converting Ultralight airplanes into drones...
They just use the auto-guide components they have been using in the rc planes and put them in there, with slightly stronger servos...
Building an ultralight is about the cheapest thing possible - some framing, a lawnmower motor, some plastic wrap.
You do not expect them to be reused, and no matter how you build them, air defense will one-shot them anyway.
so just build them cheaper and more of them...

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Yeah, the sad thing is that we're probably going to have a world filled to the gills with WMDs because this war shows that only WMD capability (particularly nuclear) is the only thing guarding your sovereignty.

Make of that as you will.

How so? I think the Ukrainian military is doing a pretty good job defending their sovereignty all by itself.

All those treaties/agreements that ensure sovereignty? Not even worth the paper they're written on. Given that the only nations that haven't been attacked have nuclear weapons...

... yeah, the non-proliferation treaty is likely to become dead in the coming decades.

[Ralin]

All those treaties/agreements that ensure sovereignty? Not even worth the paper they're written on. Given that the only nations that haven't been attacked have nuclear weapons...

... yeah, the non-proliferation treaty is likely to become dead in the coming decades.

That does not in any way, shape or form follow. Anymore than the US invasion of Iraq ended nuclear nonproliferation.

Do you think that Ukraine seeking nuclear weapons wouldn't have had a good chance of prompting an invasion sooner? At what point do you think a nuclear armed Ukraine would have started using nukes by now if they did have them? Knowing full well that Russia has many, many times more?

[LaCroix]

That does not in any way, shape or form follow. Anymore than the US invasion of Iraq ended nuclear nonproliferation.

Do you think that Ukraine seeking nuclear weapons wouldn't have had a good chance of prompting an invasion sooner? At what point do you think a nuclear armed Ukraine would have started using nukes by now if they did have them? Knowing full well that Russia has many, many times more?

Just asking, you are aware that the Ukraine HAD nukes? Not seeking - HAVING.
In fact, they had the worlds third-largest stockpile!
So "having many more" was not really a thing - they could have laid waste to whole Russia.

They gave them up in a treaty with the US and Russia, both nations promising to protect Ukrainian sovereignity in return for UA handing their nukes over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

Started in 93. Last one transferred in 96..

The rest, is history...

[Ralin]

Just asking, you are aware that the Ukraine HAD nukes? Not seeking - HAVING.
In fact, they had the worlds third-largest stockpile!
So "having many more" was not really a thing - they could have laid waste to whole Russia.

They gave them up in a treaty with the US and Russia, both nations promising to protect Ukrainian sovereignity in return for UA handing their nukes over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

Started in 93. Last one transferred in 96..

The rest, is history...

Was aware, yeah. Not how many, but I was aware. Was under the impression there was also some significant practical limitations to their ability to effectively maintain and use them that played a major part in deciding to hand them back over. Can't remember the details but I assume that's what the article means by "had physical but no operational control."

[Broomstick]

Yeah, the sad thing is that we're probably going to have a world filled to the gills with WMDs because this war shows that only WMD capability (particularly nuclear) is the only thing guarding your sovereignty.

Make of that as you will.

How so? I think the Ukrainian military is doing a pretty good job defending their sovereignty all by itself.

Not all by themselves - without the supply of arms and material from the West/NATO/US they would have fallen and been reduced to guerilla warfare under occupation by now.

You need either WMDs/nukes or be member (one way or another) of a solid alliance that will aid you to retain your independence, and maybe not even then.

[Ralin]

Not all by themselves - without the supply of arms and material from the West/NATO/US they would have fallen and been reduced to guerilla warfare under occupation by now.

Yeah, but they have been supplied with those arms and material and could potentially be supplied with a lot more so clearly nukes aren't the only viable option for ensuring national sovereignty.

I mean, unless it's the US looking to invade you. And as you say even that's a question mark.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

There's more to nuclear proliferation than simply wanting nukes.

Creating a nuclear weapons capability is hard. A basic WW2-style atomic bomb is relatively easy from a technical point of view, but more powerful weapons are a lot harder. And that's before we get to developing ballistic missiles, or actually generating enough fissile material. There's a reason only a handful of countries have ever managed it.

On top of that, there's more to non-proliferation than a treaty. The nuclear powers are terrified of nuclear proliferation, for both good and self-serving reasons; and will go to great lengths to stop it. North Korea has just about managed to squeeze out a few nukes, while Iran still hasn't pulled it off.

On that basis, I don't see nuclear proliferation by individual countries being that big an issue. The vast majority of countries don't have the resources in their own territories to even keep their economies functioning, let alone build nuclear weapons. That's pretty much why globalisation exists; either we have some sort of global trading system to let countries get what they need peacefully, or there will be resource wars.

For states thinking about nukes, there are other options. The obvious one is to join an existing nuclear umbrella such as NATO; which Ukraine intends to do. The other one that comes to mind is to create such an umbrella; that is, a bunch of countries form an alliance and create a shared nuclear defence for themselves.

This is not as bizarre as it sounds. The world is already congealing into blocs on whatever basis can be made to work; usually a combination of geography, shared history, cultural similarity, and economic need. The EU and Mercosur are obvious examples, but there are plenty more. I am embarrassed to admit that I had never heard of ECOWAS/CEDAO until recently, but it's a quite impressive entity for all its problems. It has a combined population of 350 million (2015 estimate) and a combined GDP (PPP) of 1.5 trillion dollars (also 2015 estimate). An entity like that, if it so chose, could develop its own nukes; and its combined clout would make it difficult for the existing nuclear powers to stop them.

I am also foreseeing a greater interest in missile defence. Not only is it a lot less controversial, it's also a lot more accessible. Terminal Phase systems like THAAD are basically outgrowths of SAM technology; and high-end SAM systems like PAC-3, S-400 and Aster-30 also provide some ABM capability.