UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

However, it won't stop the perception of nukes as one of the few to ensure sovereignty. There have only been two nations that gave up their nukes (Ukraine (because they were all controlled by Russians and thus inaccessible, in addition to being extremely numerous) and South Africa)... and one of them got invaded (Ukraine) while the other has a population extensively REGRETTING that decision (South Africa).

In addition to that, there is likely to be a biotech arms race brewing, meaning that bioweapons are likely to proliferate rather extensively... leading to the possibility of what I like to call a 'Reign of Steel' scenario (basically GURPS Terminator, but the AIs one and before the Human-AI War, 80+% of the world had _some kind_ of WMD available to them, be nuclear, biological, or even nanotech)... or worse...

[LadyTevar]

Let's get back to the main topic, hmm?

Russia Fires Hypersonic Missiles

At least nine people have died in a new wave of strikes across Ukraine in which Russia used powerful weapons, including rare hypersonic missiles.

Russia had reportedly not fired Kinzhal hypersonic missiles - which can evade air defences - since the early months of the conflict.

The latest barrage was the most severe to hit Ukraine for weeks.

It cut power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant - Europe's biggest - although it was later restored.

On Thursday Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said: "High-precision long-range air, sea and land-based weapons, including the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system, hit key elements of Ukraine's military infrastructure."

It was the biggest day of Russian strikes on Ukraine since the end of January,

The Ukrainian military claimed it had successfully shot down 34 cruise missiles and four Iranian-made Shahed drones.

But it also said it had been unable to intercept the six Kinzhal ballistic missiles - nor was it able to destroy older weapons, such as Kh-22 anti-ship missiles and S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.

"This was a major attack and for the first time with so many different types of missiles," the Reuters news agency quoted a Ukrainian air force spokesperson as saying. "It was like never before."

President Vladimir Putin has highlighted Russia's investment in ballistic hypersonic missiles, which can travel at more than five times the speed of sound.

The attacks hit cities from Kharkiv in the north to Odesa in the south and Zhytomyr in the west, with power blackouts reported in several areas.

Nuclear energy operator Energoatom said the strike at the Zaporizhzhia plant had cut off the link between the facility and the Ukrainian power system.

For the sixth time since it was taken over by Russia a year ago, the facility operated on diesel generators until the link was restored later on Thursday.

The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for a commitment to protecting the safety of the plant, saying he was "astonished by the complacency" surrounding the successive strikes since the invasion began.

"Each time we are rolling a dice. And if we allow this to continue time after time then one day our luck will run out," Rafael Grossi said.

In the capital Kyiv, emergency services attended the scenes of blasts in western and southern districts of the capital where the mayor, Vitaly Klitschko, said explosions had taken place.

A missile also hit an energy facility in the port city of Odesa, triggering power cuts, its governor Maksym Marchenko said. Residential areas were also hit but no casualties were reported.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Interesting that they resorted to rare and expensive hypersonic missiles for something like this. It implies that Ukrainian missile defences are getting too good for anything else. Or that the Russians are running out of everything else.

[Bedlam]

Yeah, the sad thing is that we're probably going to have a world filled to the gills with WMDs because this war shows that only WMD capability (particularly nuclear) is the only thing guarding your sovereignty.

Make of that as you will.

Hasn't that always been the case? The only way to ensure you're neighbors won't attack you is to have a better army, or have friends with a better army? Nuclear weapons are just the ultimate extension of that.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah, the sad thing is that we're probably going to have a world filled to the gills with WMDs because this war shows that only WMD capability (particularly nuclear) is the only thing guarding your sovereignty.

Make of that as you will.

Hasn't that always been the case? The only way to ensure you're neighbors won't attack you is to have a better army, or have friends with a better army? Nuclear weapons are just the ultimate extension of that.

More or less, honestly I don't see any escalation on WMD production resulting on this, now had Russia rolled over Ukraine due west staying away due to fear of nukes it might be a different thing. However currently I doubt no-one is gonna go "You know invading Ukraine cost Russia so much, its on the verge of collapse, lets emulate that things were too nice and stable anyway!".

All indications seem to point that even if Russia achieved total victory tomorrow, it would a Pyrrhic victory as their economy and military is in such a sorry state that no gains from Ukraine could compensate for that loss. I would say that does show the strength of the treaty since while it didn't stop Russia from invading, it did (and still does) cost them so much that I suspect many wish the treaty would have made them rethink if the invasion was good idea.

[Solauren]

I don't see this resulting in more Nuclear weapons for one reason -
Nuclear weapons serve no non-terrorist tactical purpose, unless you are willing to also be hit with nuclear weapons in return.
No one wants that, not one will risk it.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

I don't see this resulting in more Nuclear weapons for one reason -
Nuclear weapons serve no non-terrorist tactical purpose, unless you are willing to also be hit with nuclear weapons in return.
No one wants that, not one will risk it.

That is in a world where agreements on national sovereignty were worth the paper they were written on. We're beginning to see a world where such agreements aren't worth the paper they were written on... or at least severely questioned, both of which are bad.

Interesting that they resorted to rare and expensive hypersonic missiles for something like this. It implies that Ukrainian missile defences are getting too good for anything else. Or that the Russians are running out of everything else.

Given that a combination of MAD and 'trade OR ELSE!' ensured relative peace for decades? I wouldn't be surprised. To be honest, it's a situation similar to the lead-up to WW1, where the previous conflicts were so small that they made the perception of stocks being viable when they weren't.

[Ralin]

That is in a world where agreements on national sovereignty were worth the paper they were written on. We're beginning to see a world where such agreements aren't worth the paper they were written on... or at least severely questioned, both of which are bad.

That has always been true. Countries have always been able to renege on treaties and agreements. There has always been limited recourse when a powerful country does so.

In addition to that, there is likely to be a biotech arms race brewing, meaning that bioweapons are likely to proliferate rather extensively... leading to the possibility of what I like to call a 'Reign of Steel' scenario (basically GURPS Terminator, but the AIs one and before the Human-AI War, 80+% of the world had _some kind_ of WMD available to them, be nuclear, biological, or even nanotech)... or worse...

You really just love hysterical posting, don't you?

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

That is in a world where agreements on national sovereignty were worth the paper they were written on. We're beginning to see a world where such agreements aren't worth the paper they were written on... or at least severely questioned, both of which are bad.

That has always been true. Countries have always been able to renege on treaties and agreements. There has always been limited recourse when a powerful country does so.

Not without consequences and instituting precedent. Most governments lothe pulling stuff that would cause a precedent that would bite them in the ass.

In addition to that, there is likely to be a biotech arms race brewing, meaning that bioweapons are likely to proliferate rather extensively... leading to the possibility of what I like to call a 'Reign of Steel' scenario (basically GURPS Terminator, but the AIs one and before the Human-AI War, 80+% of the world had _some kind_ of WMD available to them, be nuclear, biological, or even nanotech)... or worse...

You really just love hysterical posting, don't you?

Because people forget that fiction has a disturbing tendency (and when I mean disturbing, I mean 'more than once in a blue moon') to predict the future? That and technology had changed the game, so to speak.

I mean, if you look around, you're seeing a significant portion of ZDF's World War 3 playing out right in front of us... and we know how that movie ended.

[Ralin]

Not without consequences and instituting precedent. Most governments lothe pulling stuff that would cause a precedent that would bite them in the ass.

You mean like the massive sanctions that are shredding the Russian economy and the influx of military aid to Ukraine that is contributing to their armed forces being mauled?

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Not without consequences and instituting precedent. Most governments lothe pulling stuff that would cause a precedent that would bite them in the ass.

You mean like the massive sanctions that are shredding the Russian economy and the influx of military aid to Ukraine that is contributing to their armed forces being mauled?

Hence why I said most. When you have more ideology than sense (in this case, revenge for the '90s)... consequences tend to go out the window regarding the decision-making process.

The precedent is set: if you start conquering other nations, you'll get locked out of the world economy and have enough sanctions to be left destitute before any soldiers start showing up. The thing with this is that Russia has its leadership filled with people with more ideology than sense, in this case, 'Old World Blues'. However, we must prepare for the reaction to the increasingly deteriorating situation for Russia. Given the parallels, we might see a situation where one of the tac-nukes detonates because of the idea of 'escalate to de-escalate' in Russia's military planning. Hopefully, we won't have to face such a situation but... well... we all know what happens you rely on hope. Please note that I'm either next to or just down from at least 5 different ground zeros, most of them likely to be ground bursts.

On a brighter note, it appears that we're seeing the beginnings of a February Revolution 2 as of late as soldiers are mutinying:



Though, given how thoroughly Putin has ensured his power, it would need to be extremely widespread for it to have any actual effects.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine LIVE: Russians nuclear panic as they are ordered to rush to bomb shelters

Russians were urged to immediately take shelter and wear gas masks in a later-confirmed cyber attack on state media channels as the nation's war continues to rage in Ukraine. TV and radio programmes were interrupted in Moscow on Thursday with an urgent message to seek shelter, take anti-radiation pills and wear gas masks.

The message was shown on TV with a black and yellow radiation symbol and a map of Russia slowly being covered in red.

A Russian voice warned: "Urgent message. There was a strike. Urgently go to a shelter. Seal the premises. Use gas masks of all types."

The Russian emergencies ministry later blamed the fake nuclear message on a cyber attack on Russian state broadcasters.

[LadyTevar]

GrosseAdmiralFox, if you want to continue the Nuclear Discussion, create a new thread for your topic. Leave it out of this one so we can focus on Ukraine.

Especially if you're going to post theoretical shit like Bio-weapons.

[Bedlam]

Ukraine LIVE: Russians nuclear panic as they are ordered to rush to bomb shelters

Russians were urged to immediately take shelter and wear gas masks in a later-confirmed cyber attack on state media channels as the nation's war continues to rage in Ukraine. TV and radio programmes were interrupted in Moscow on Thursday with an urgent message to seek shelter, take anti-radiation pills and wear gas masks.

The message was shown on TV with a black and yellow radiation symbol and a map of Russia slowly being covered in red.

A Russian voice warned: "Urgent message. There was a strike. Urgently go to a shelter. Seal the premises. Use gas masks of all types."

The Russian emergencies ministry later blamed the fake nuclear message on a cyber attack on Russian state broadcasters.

I can't say I find that all that funny.

How many totally random people died in the panic, committed sucide, etc
Plus, what if someone with the ability to retaliate took it seriously?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine LIVE: Russians nuclear panic as they are ordered to rush to bomb shelters

Russians were urged to immediately take shelter and wear gas masks in a later-confirmed cyber attack on state media channels as the nation's war continues to rage in Ukraine. TV and radio programmes were interrupted in Moscow on Thursday with an urgent message to seek shelter, take anti-radiation pills and wear gas masks.

The message was shown on TV with a black and yellow radiation symbol and a map of Russia slowly being covered in red.

A Russian voice warned: "Urgent message. There was a strike. Urgently go to a shelter. Seal the premises. Use gas masks of all types."

The Russian emergencies ministry later blamed the fake nuclear message on a cyber attack on Russian state broadcasters.

I can't say I find that all that funny.

How many totally random people died in the panic, committed sucide, etc
Plus, what if someone with the ability to retaliate took it seriously?

Probably none, this will be more likely to stir up unrest in Russia when people are forced to confront the reality of the first stage of nuclear war.

[Solauren]

Yeah, someone could have launched a retaliation for the claim in the cyberattack if they believed it.

It would have been better just to cripple the infrastructure, creating problems that way, then basically daring someone to launch nukes.

[Lord Revan]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

While this is/was unlikely to nuclear retaliation, what it will do is sow mistrust and panic within the Russian population.

[LadyTevar]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

Didn't that happen once or twice in the US? Not Nukes, but IIRC a Tsunami Warning in Hawai'i?

While this is/was unlikely to nuclear retaliation, what it will do is sow mistrust and panic within the Russian population.

Which was exactly the point of the operation.

Get the Moscow population starting to fear that the war is coming for them, and let them experience what every Ukrainian citizen feels when the missiles start flying. "Here's how it feels, Assholes! How do you like it?!"

Was it funny? In a very dark, twisted, black humor way, yes. Karma? Schadenfreude? whatever. I fully admit I found it humorous.

[Marko Dash]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

While this is/was unlikely to nuclear retaliation, what it will do is sow mistrust and panic within the Russian population.

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

[bilateralrope]

Didn't that happen once or twice in the US? Not Nukes, but IIRC a Tsunami Warning in Hawai'i?

Hawaii was a false missile warning

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Didn't that happen once or twice in the US? Not Nukes, but IIRC a Tsunami Warning in Hawai'i?

Hawaii was a false missile warning

Not just the USA.

[Lord Revan]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

While this is/was unlikely to nuclear retaliation, what it will do is sow mistrust and panic within the Russian population.

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

That wasn't a malfunction PSA system though it was joke made by a foreign leader that could have been a genuine threat.

[Broomstick]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

Didn't that happen once or twice in the US? Not Nukes, but IIRC a Tsunami Warning in Hawai'i?

Actually, both have happened in Hawai'i - tsunami warnings AND a ballistic missile threat in 2018.

A major difference, of course, was that at the time the US was not in the sort of conflict Ukraine and Russia are.

Given the history of false alarms it's a pretty safe assumption that major world powers have safeguards against such events.

[LadyTevar]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

While this is/was unlikely to nuclear retaliation, what it will do is sow mistrust and panic within the Russian population.

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

That wasn't a malfunction PSA system though it was joke made by a foreign leader that could have been a genuine threat.

The infamous "open mic" joke.
Thankfully Russia did get the joke, and it blew over.
I have to wonder how this "prank" will go. I'm sure Russia is very interested in finding the hackers right now.

[Lord Revan]

I suspect that the people in charge of Nuclear retaliation rely on their own detection systems and not if a the state broadcaster airs an "Attack Imminent" announcement. You wouldn't want to trigger World War 3 because someone wanted to test the system and pressed "transmit" instead of "off-line test".

Didn't that happen once or twice in the US? Not Nukes, but IIRC a Tsunami Warning in Hawai'i?

Actually, both have happened in Hawai'i - tsunami warnings AND a ballistic missile threat in 2018.

A major difference, of course, was that at the time the US was not in the sort of conflict Ukraine and Russia are.

Given the history of false alarms it's a pretty safe assumption that major world powers have safeguards against such events.

Considering that the events most likely to have caused WWIII were either malfunctioning early warning systems or the early warning system functioning correctly but what it detected not being an actual threat just looking like one (and even none of those actually triggered anything in the end), not a public announcement system malfunctioning or hacked it's reasonable to assume there's safeguard they use determine if a threat is real.

After all Russians don't want to die anymore then we do and they know triggering World War 3 will most likely cause them to die.