UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Dominus Atheos]

Allegedly another 1000 dead russians today.



59 of those 1000 allegedly dead russians after they allegedly charged across an open field.

[Lord Revan]

What's more scary is that the thousand there is probably a low ball estimate based only on bodies Ukrainians could confirm.

[Solauren]

After all Russians don't want to die anymore then we do and they know triggering World War 3 will most likely cause them to die.

Problem - Russians have nothing to do with this war. (as in the average Russian citizen), beside being turned into meat for the grinder.

PUTIN and is people want this war. So long as side effects are not reaching them, they apparently don't care.

Who cares if Moscow riots? As long as where Putin and his people are remains secure, they probably won't even notice.

[Lord Revan]

After all Russians don't want to die anymore then we do and they know triggering World War 3 will most likely cause them to die.

Problem - Russians have nothing to do with this war. (as in the average Russian citizen), beside being turned into meat for the grinder.

PUTIN and is people want this war. So long as side effects are not reaching them, they apparently don't care.

Who cares if Moscow riots? As long as where Putin and his people are remains secure, they probably won't even notice.

Putin still doesn't want to die and honestly triggering WW3 would most likely kill him as well and he knows this so he's probably not gonna go starting WWIII anytime soon.

As for Russians having nothing to do with this war, the Czar probably thought the same during WWI and we all know how that ended up. Putin or his inner circle aren't some demigods who can force obedience on populace who is 100% against it, should the Russian populace demand "no more war!" forcefully enough there's nothing Putin can do about it there's around 145 million citizens of the Russian Federation and probably less then 1 million of those belong to Putin's inner circle in any shape or form that's a fight Putin can't win if it comes down to it and he knows this.

[Big Orange]

If Russia is lucky, it'll just be an even weaker and much more decentralized Federation, with regional oblasts, republics, and cities given more autonomy (maybe after a series of brushfire wars and a Moscow coup) or (if even the nukes got too rundown by corruption/neglect and regional Chechen style insurgencies merge out of control) it could fragment completely like the Austro-Hungarian Empire did after WW1....

[Lord Revan]

IIRC the Austro-Hungarian empire didn't so much fragment as it was split by the winners of WWI.

[Ralin]

As for Russians having nothing to do with this war, the Czar probably thought the same during WWI and we all know how that ended up. Putin or his inner circle aren't some demigods who can force obedience on populace who is 100% against it, should the Russian populace demand "no more war!" forcefully enough there's nothing Putin can do about it there's around 145 million citizens of the Russian Federation and probably less then 1 million of those belong to Putin's inner circle in any shape or form that's a fight Putin can't win if it comes down to it and he knows this.

No, but Putin and his people have put a great deal of effort into engineering a situation where the Russian populace doesn't do that and into nipping any movement towards doing so in the bud. Complete with what is by all accounts a very competent internal police army to stomp down on protests before they get off the ground. Things can always change and change quickly, but nothing I've heard makes it sound like that is happening.

In particular.

Who cares if Moscow riots? As long as where Putin and his people are remains secure, they probably won't even notice.

This is fucking stupid because Russia's population and political power is heavily weighted towards Moscow (13 million) and Saint Petersburg (5 and a half million). The smaller of which is larger than the next three biggest Russian cities combined, for reference. Putin absolutely cares about what happens in Moscow, which is why by all accounts the negative effects of the war for regular people have disproportionately fallen anywhere but there.

[Big Orange]

IIRC the Austro-Hungarian empire didn't so much fragment as it was split by the winners of WWI.

Yeah, but like the Russian Federation, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was 30-50+ years past its prime as a Eurasian great power and its military was somewhat outdated, with corrupt and inept officers, etc, the Hungarians fitted the role of the Chechens, the Serbs were gravely underestimated like Ukrainians (and so on).

[LaCroix]

The spike in losses is due to Wagner is getting desperate - there are ukrainian forces assembling north of bakhmut, and the counterattack is imminent.
You always caunterattack when the enemy is extremely busy with their attack and at the same time, low on ammo, and manpower.
Right now, Wagner meets all requirements, storming the fortified positions inside Bakhmut, trying to envelope the North, etc. They are almost out of all artillery and heavy weapon ammo, and running low on meat since they can't get prisoners to sign up, anymore.
As a desperate measure, they opened recruitment offices in gyms and in schools, trying to get any meat they can get their hands on to walk it into enemy fire. In addidtion, recruitment is hindered by other Oligarchs also trying to recruit their own armies, right now, trying to prepare for an eventual violent collapse of the government, setting themselves up as warlords or at least having enough bodies to keep the masses off their property, depending on the oligarch we're talking about.

Wagner also knows the attack is coming, so they doubled down on thier attacks, even being low on everything, and even tried to advance north towards the ukrainans assembling, trying to fix them into positional fights before they can execute any attack plan. Desperate attacks, charging into barbed wire and machine gun fire desperate. They are massively overextending their reach trying to make contact or greate abuffer zone, but at the same time, have no defenses prepared, and are far ahead of any supply and fortifications. At least a thrd of Wagner is severely exposed, and if that counter offensive is going to start, they are in severe risk ov envelopment adn eradication.

Rumors are that the counter offensive will commence within this week, they are trill trying to hold out a few days the get the ground as dry as possible, but if Bakhmut is showing strain, or the Wagner are about to do something counterproductive, it will be on, immediately.

At the same time, as this would fix the forces in Bakhmut, and would even force the Russians to send reinforcement or get driven back out, they will probably lauch the offensive into the south, at either Mariopol, or more likely, into Melitopol.

Mariupol would be the way to trap more people and liberate much more territory, but the Donbass is too close, and it would be hard to strik and peel off enough territory to create a viable corridor, imho. The chance to just funnel your people into a narrow salient that will get hit with everything including the kitchen sink from both sides is too great.

In Melitopol, they only need to advance 20, 30km before they reach extensive (for Russians impassable) rivers than allow them to ignore the eastern front completely as they push furter sout for another 30km to reach Melitopol.
they can then surrount the citty on the western flank, and pass further sout, where they reach the shores of large reservoirs, that also guard their eastern flank, and allow them to push all the way to the sea with only having to deal with what is still left inside Kherson remnant.

At the same time, those forces are also under pressure by Kherson oblast forces that could cross the river if they react to the offensive, and open then to a second fronline in their back, threatening envelopment.

My prediction is that the Russian forces will start making a gesture of goodwill the moment the Ukrainians reach the rivers, and fall back to Crimea that's why they've been building all those fortifications there.

That will not help them, because the moment Ukraine reaches the sea, Kerch bridge is on borrowed time. at that point, it would be an acceptabe risk to even send a couple of jets across the sea with full JDAM and brimstone loadout on a potential suicide mission (altough I am pretty sure the Rusian air defense would be neglible once you do not have to cross occuied Zhaporizia, first), just to make sure the bridge stays down.

[LaCroix]

Russian officials deny that there is an epidemic of the plague in the russian troops.

"There have been cases, but not an epidemic."

Having seen footage on how the mobiks are "nesting" in occupied houses, I am not surprised...

[bilateralrope]

Just to clarify, which plague are we talking about here ?

[LaCroix]

capital letter...

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I agree that the Ukrainians will probably not launch a direct thrust on Mariupol. It's too close to Donetsk, and what looks like the Russian centre of gravity.

I've been going over some Ukrainian transport maps, and I can see a couple of other possibilities. Melitopol has a lot going for it, as it has a railway line and a main road leading directly south from Zaporizhzhia. But that route goes through Vasylivka, which is a crossroads leading south to Melitopol, south-east to Berdiansk via Tokmak, and west along the Dnieper's south bank via Dniprorudne. If the Ukrainians do go that way, the Russians will go out of their way to stop them. An alternative would be to launch a feint towards Vasylivka, then thunder-run south to Tokmak, then south-east to Berdiansk. Of course, if a breakthrough around Vasylivka looks viable, they might just pour their reserves in there and head to Melitopol instead. Either would work.

And now the Plague...

[Highlord Laan]

Just to clarify, which plague are we talking about here ?

Russians.

[bilateralrope]

capital letter...

So, bubonic ?

That's going to be another drain on supplies the russian forces don't have.

[LadyTevar]

capital letter...

So, bubonic ?

That's going to be another drain on supplies the russian forces don't have.

Most likely COVID, not Bubonic. Not as dangerous *IF* they've had their shots, but still a massive drain on resources.

[Batman]

I think LaCroix meant that by NOT capitalizing plague he wasn't talking about the bubonic one commonly Known as THE Plague. And I agree COVID is the most likely suspect.

[bilateralrope]

capital letter...

So, bubonic ?

That's going to be another drain on supplies the russian forces don't have.

Most likely COVID, not Bubonic. Not as dangerous *IF* they've had their shots, but still a massive drain on resources.

Yes, COVID seems more likely. But also less newsworthy.

So I guess we are waiting for LaCroix to clarify.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

After all Russians don't want to die anymore then we do and they know triggering World War 3 will most likely cause them to die.

Problem - Russians have nothing to do with this war. (as in the average Russian citizen), beside being turned into meat for the grinder.

PUTIN and is people want this war. So long as side effects are not reaching them, they apparently don't care.

Who cares if Moscow riots? As long as where Putin and his people are remains secure, they probably won't even notice.

Yeah, no. Russians (and by that I mean ethnic Russians) -a vast majority of them- want this war, because they're the equivalent of the French after Franco-Prussia. To get anywhere in Russia's political arena, similar to France until WW1, you have to be for revenge and 'regaining lost lands'. That's how bad the 1990s were for Russia.

[Solauren]

Yeah, no. Russians (and by that I mean ethnic Russians) -a vast majority of them- want this war, because they're the equivalent of the French after Franco-Prussia. To get anywhere in Russia's political arena, similar to France until WW1, you have to be for revenge and 'regaining lost lands'. That's how bad the 1990s were for Russia.

Do you have any evidence of this? That's a VERY big claim to be making.

[Dominus Atheos]

It's pretty well established by polls in russia that the population are largely supportive of the war. Here's one semi-recent poll:

What Secret Russian State Polling Tells Us About Support for the War

Updated: Dec. 9, 2022

Paradoxically, despite more and more people believing the war should never have been started, the share of those who support a continuation of the war has been growing. As of Nov. 17, 67% supported continuing the fight. And only 18% of respondents would like the authorities to end the war — the lowest number in six months.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/ ... war-a79596

[Ralin]

Not as dangerous *IF* they've had their shots, but still a massive drain on resources.

Which they probably haven't. Did Russia even have an anti-COVID policy? Because from what little I've heard it seems like they did not.

[Lord Revan]

It's pretty well established by polls in russia that the population are largely supportive of the war. Here's one semi-recent poll:

What Secret Russian State Polling Tells Us About Support for the War

Updated: Dec. 9, 2022

Paradoxically, despite more and more people believing the war should never have been started, the share of those who support a continuation of the war has been growing. As of Nov. 17, 67% supported continuing the fight. And only 18% of respondents would like the authorities to end the war — the lowest number in six months.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/ ... war-a79596

Putting aside the question of the reliability of such polls (it's clear Kremlin wants the war to go on, so saying you don't might not be healthy), the Russian population at large hasn't really been exposed to the negative aspects of the war that much yet, who knows how the support develops once the Russian state runs out of money which seems like a likely possibility.

[LaCroix]

Yes, capital letter Plague - though still just rumors, nothing confirmed, of course.
But since Russia still has outbreaks of bubonic plague that in remote areas, especially in the areas near Mongolia and China, where people hunt marmots, who are known carriers, it is a known issue.
Now guess what regions are still poor enough that people are willing to sign up... A lot of them might be somewhat resitant to it, but contact with them or the gear they bring or are sent from home might carry it over. Now add the mess these people are housing in, the rat problem that follows them, and I am well willing to believe it.

Also, Kazakstan has just seized Roscosmos assets and equipment at Baikonur, over missed payments.
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... -spaceport

[Bedlam]

Not as dangerous *IF* they've had their shots, but still a massive drain on resources.

Which they probably haven't. Did Russia even have an anti-COVID policy? Because from what little I've heard it seems like they did not.

They created their own vaccine Sputnik 5 and started to roll it out from December 2020 about 50% of the population is fully vaccinated although it is recognized to be less effected that some of the western vaccines it still does something. Russian also went through the same sort of lock downs and restrictions as Europe did.