UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Broomstick]

Given the living conditions on the front, and from what we've seen of Russian accommodations, I'd be surprised if there wasn't illness among their troops.

[Lord Revan]

While IIRC Plague can be treated these days with anti-biotic treatments it's still something that could spread and cause a lot of damage if there's not enough medicine for the troops. Either way what ever it is, it doesn't say good things about the Russian military, especially if they're more focused on trying to cover it up then to treat it as it seems.

[LaCroix]

especially if they're more focused on trying to cover it up then to treat it as it seems.

You probably know the old proverb - "Nothing is ever truly confirmed until Russia denies it."

[Lord Revan]

especially if they're more focused on trying to cover it up then to treat it as it seems.

You probably know the old proverb - "Nothing is ever truly confirmed until Russia denies it."

I seems to remember my dad saying it in the form "nothing is ever truly confirmed until the Soviet Union denies it."

[Solauren]

It's pretty well established by polls in russia that the population are largely supportive of the war. Here's one semi-recent poll.

So, let me get this straight.

You are relaying on a poll, run by a government, looking to see if it's populace supports an a flat-out invasion of another country?
A government, who's head of it, has switched from claiming it was a special military operation, to claiming it was in response to the country being invaded committing aggressive action?

A government that routinely lies to not only their own population, but the entire fucking world, despite all evidence of that lie?

A government that has a history of tossing anyone that speaks out against it into jail, or poisoning them with radioactive isotopes, tossing them out of windows, shooting them and having it ruled suicide?

Yes, I can see how that poll would be absolutely reliable. Clearly all Russians a genocidal monsters and need to be wiped off the map for the good of humanity.

[Ralin]

If you'll read the article, it does express skepticism about the results, but this is including unpublished poll data gathered by the Russian government itself (sometimes through intermediaries) for the purpose of evaluating how well their messaging is working. It's not something that's been released as a justification or for propaganda purposes. It also shows significant disagreement and changing opinions over time that don't completely match up with what Putin's administration would presumably want to believe.

the Russian population at large hasn't really been exposed to the negative aspects of the war that much yet, who knows how the support develops once the Russian state runs out of money which seems like a likely possibility.

It's probably less an issue of the Russian population at large being exposed and more which specific parts of the population are bearing the consequences. Like I said earlier, I hadn't known this before but the parts of the Russian population with significant political influence as a collective entity are heavily weighted towards Moscow and Saint Petersburg. If some smaller city or town (they are all small cities by comparison) gets fucked over badly (which they will since apparently they're specifically creating 'town units' as a quick way of ensuring cohesion) they really can't do much relative to the people who matter.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Yeah, no. Russians (and by that I mean ethnic Russians) -a vast majority of them- want this war, because they're the equivalent of the French after Franco-Prussia. To get anywhere in Russia's political arena, similar to France until WW1, you have to be for revenge and 'regaining lost lands'. That's how bad the 1990s were for Russia.

Do you have any evidence of this? That's a VERY big claim to be making.

Given the relative lack of protests (and no, it can't be explained by just how effective Putin's apparatus is, especially with how unpopular the war supposedly is... historically if it is as unpopular as analysts are stating, even with the effectiveness of Putin's apparatus, there would be far more protests in general (especially large-scale ones) than what we've seen), the fact that the fall of the USSR and the 1990s is a poster boy for Revanchism, and just how bad the 1990s were for Russia...

... it's almost certain that much of the Russian ethnic group is Revanchist. I wouldn't be surprised that much of the Russian ethnic group also has a serious case of 'Old World Blues' too...

[Crazedwraith]

Russian jets collide with US Drone over Black Sea

This could get pretty interesting.

[LadyTevar]

Russian jets collide with US Drone over Black Sea

This could get pretty interesting.

Why would the Russians dump Jet Fuel on it? Trying to set it on fire or something?

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Russian jets collide with US Drone over Black Sea

This could get pretty interesting.

Why would the Russians dump Jet Fuel on it? Trying to set it on fire or something?

I had to read the article to understand what you were saying. Assuming this was deliberate, the only explanation I can think of is that the Russians were trying to cause the drone to "accidentally" crash; for fear that the US would treat a conventional interception as an act of war.

It's not as strange as it sounds. In some of the online debates I've seen about naval drones, a common sneer is that if a submarine captain realised a drone was tailing him, he'd just sink it there and then. When the retort comes in that by doing so he would give his location away and commit an act of war, the response is that no country would go to war over a drone.

But can we be sure? More importantly, can Russia be sure?

That said, I doubt Russia is thinking in terms of direct military action. More likely, this will harden American attitudes towards Russia, and provide a convenient pretext for more arms donations.

[Solauren]

Or, they were trying to disable it in a way it could be salvaged.

Getting shot up and crashing, or blown apart by a missile, tends to negate that possibility.

[Khaat]

Dousing it with fuel + hot engine parts/exhaust of the drone igniting that is more "accidental" than colliding with it.
"We can't shoot it."
"Let's light it on fire!"
"Hurr-hurr-hurr!"

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Desperate Putin running out of ammo in crisis for Russia on war frontline

Increasingly desperate Russian troops in Ukraine are having to resort of using munitions previously branded "unfit for use" as a result of a worsening shortage. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin has ordered larger air defence systems to be deployed in Moscow to intercept incoming missiles and aircraft as paranoia grips the Kremlin with Putin's ever-present fears of being toppled.

The UK Ministry of Defence's latest tweeted DefenceHQ bulletin says: "In recent weeks, Russian artillery ammunition shortages have likely worsened to the extent that extremely punitive shell-rationing is in force on many parts of the front.

"This has almost certainly been a key reason why no Russian formation has recently been able to generate operationally significant offensive action."

It adds: "Russia has almost certainly already resorted to issuing old munitions stock which were previously categorised as unfit for use."

Separately, defence systems including the Pantsir-S1 and S-400 have been positioned on rooftops throughout Moscow, as well as around Putin's secret forest palace. Putin has been tearing down woodland in the Russian capital to make way for more powerful S-400 anti-aircraft missile defence systems.

[Lord Revan]

I wonder if we'll see an increase of casualties in Russian artillery units if those "unfit for use" munitions explode in the barrels (either due to old fuses trigger prematurely or the powder either getting poor quality due to age and getting too "hot" or too weak and this resulting in even more unsafe use).

Even with small arms if something is categorised as "unfit for use" it's typically for a reason.

[Broomstick]

While IIRC Plague can be treated these days with anti-biotic treatments it's still something that could spread and cause a lot of damage if there's not enough medicine for the troops.

I mean, the good news is that the antibiotics needed are fairly common and nothing exotic. The bad news is that they have to be given early in the illness and the patient often needs additional supportive care. Which will be rare to absent on a battlefront.

Even with prompt antibiotic treatment there's still a death rate of 1-10% even these days (it does vary by particular strain and manifestation of the illness). And it can lead to necrosis in the extremities, which also requires significant medical resources to treat and can leave you maimed. Sure, most people with modern treatment will be fine but meanwhile you're horribly sick. If you have the septicemic variety not only do your bodily fluids become infectious, you'll be spreading them everywhere via bleeding (which is a feature of that one) and coughing that spreads "aerosols". The pneumatic variety you can spread it via the air to other people by coughing, which is a feature of that variant.

Either way what ever it is, it doesn't say good things about the Russian military, especially if they're more focused on trying to cover it up then to treat it as it seems.

Is there anything good to say about the Russian military?

[Broomstick]

Russian jets collide with US Drone over Black Sea

This could get pretty interesting.

Why would the Russians dump Jet Fuel on it? Trying to set it on fire or something?

Plausible deniability.

[Broomstick]

Also, the pilot of the jet is damn lucky he didn't crash himself. Aircraft, even military aircraft, are not designed to be very impact resistant due to the need to save weight.

I'm inclined towards "sloppy flying" more than deliberate impact, but hey, it could be deliberate. In which case it's really, really stupid.

[LaCroix]

I wonder if we'll see an increase of casualties in Russian artillery units if those "unfit for use" munitions explode in the barrels (either due to old fuses trigger prematurely or the powder either getting poor quality due to age and getting too "hot" or too weak and this resulting in even more unsafe use).

Even with small arms if something is categorised as "unfit for use" it's typically for a reason.

Hard to tell - Russia's been losing a good dozen guns per day for the last weeks. This is either due to the current weather, where shoot and scoot is severely harder to do if you suddenly sit in a mudhole, and makes counter-battery fire so much more effective, or it might indeed be an indicator of this problem.

So far,though, we do not have intercepted calls or complains about it, so I would assume that they are simply having to get much closer to the frontline due to degraded ammunition that lacks range, and maybe increased number of duds, but no major premature detonation problem, yet.


Unlike a certain official in Mariopol, whose car started much more energetically than usual, this morning.

[Ralin]

Is there anything good to say about the Russian military?

They clearly don't give up easily?

I heard a saying way back around the time this all started and it became apparent how much of a clusterfuck it was to the effect that the Russian people are never weaker than when they are strong and never stronger than when they are weak.

[Lord Revan]

While IIRC Plague can be treated these days with anti-biotic treatments it's still something that could spread and cause a lot of damage if there's not enough medicine for the troops.

I mean, the good news is that the antibiotics needed are fairly common and nothing exotic. The bad news is that they have to be given early in the illness and the patient often needs additional supportive care. Which will be rare to absent on a battlefront.

Even with prompt antibiotic treatment there's still a death rate of 1-10% even these days (it does vary by particular strain and manifestation of the illness). And it can lead to necrosis in the extremities, which also requires significant medical resources to treat and can leave you maimed. Sure, most people with modern treatment will be fine but meanwhile you're horribly sick. If you have the septicemic variety not only do your bodily fluids become infectious, you'll be spreading them everywhere via bleeding (which is a feature of that one) and coughing that spreads "aerosols". The pneumatic variety you can spread it via the air to other people by coughing, which is a feature of that variant.

Yeah it's no walk in the in the park even if treated. Untreated it has something like 70% death rate which probably raises if the victims are already weakened as is (like due to malnutrition or lack of proper shelter).

Either way what ever it is, it doesn't say good things about the Russian military, especially if they're more focused on trying to cover it up then to treat it as it seems.

Is there anything good to say about the Russian military?

As Finn I'm obviously biased, but there isn't much good things to say about the Russian military these days.

[Lord Revan]

Is there anything good to say about the Russian military?

They clearly don't give up easily?

What good is stubbornness if it serves only to get you killed?

[LaCroix]

Is there anything good to say about the Russian military?

They clearly don't give up easily?

I heard a saying way back around the time this all started and it became apparent how much of a clusterfuck it was to the effect that the Russian people are never weaker than when they are strong and never stronger than when they are weak.

And this is why right now, the counteroffensive into Bakhmut was resheduled.
As of right now, the Moskovians are pouring so much men and material into the industrial shredder this defense has become, that the casualty rate is starting to become pornografic. As of now, analysts believe that a third of all russian losses during this conflict have happened at Bakhmut.
Zelensky had the regular meeting with his generals, and the decided that the frontline is stable enough to believ that no sudden collaps would occur:
Russians can't cross the River directly - an elite force tried, and was eradicated.

The Northern flank is almost completely stabilized with minor reserve usage, and Wagner still frantically tries to advance north to reach the waiting counteroffensive forces to pin them down before bad things happen, but has run right into a prepared killzone. they managed to smash through 2 of 4 lines of defense that had to be given up, by innertia alone, but are now trapped by fire from 3 sides, long resupply and general dwindling manpower.

UAF have become so sure of that flank, that they built pontoon bridges over the bridges they prior collapsed to stop a potential breakthrough, and are using this route for Bakhmut supply, again.

Southern flank is where the Moskovian main forces have pivoted to, and so the UAF is currently playing the trade land for high casualties game, again, now alloing the russians to slowly fight north, again ammassing mind-boggling kill numbers in the urban fight the russians can't deal with.

For now, they'll et this go on, there is no sense in cancelling the show that does the most of the work for them. Why give them something to shoot at when you can just let them charge into machinegun and mortar fire.

At the same time, it has been confirmed that almost 30k troops trained as offensive brigades are now ready, and only waiting for the armored elements currently in training to be incorporated to form the core of the big southern counterattack in spring/summer. So, April, most likely.

Which works with the curretn rumors that the Bakhmut counteroffensive is now sheduled for end of March. This would work nicely to create an attractr of force, where reserves need to be pulled into, and then expose weak points alon the south that can be used to adjust plans.

Still, my prediction is that the very minute the attacks stop - which means the forces have been so depleted that they simply can't do anything , anymore, that offensive will be on. No need to give them time to dig in, save up ammo and fortify.

Just in - the Moskovians have done another big assault on Vuhledar, again getting torn to shreds, since they tried the ingenious tactic to attack in exactly the same spots they did before, not realizing that the convenient "cover" of their burnt out assaut vehicles also provides a great map of positional markers for UAF artillery fire.

During the later cleanup, they found a notobook of a commander that had notes about the attacking waves. They were sent out in groups of 100 men, and according to these records, usually less than 20 came back. Worst case, it was a whopping 3.

Shows again that the only person to care less about how many Russians die than an Ukrainian, is a Russian Officer...

[LadyTevar]

Or, they were trying to disable it in a way it could be salvaged.

Getting shot up and crashing, or blown apart by a missile, tends to negate that possibility.

I've seen the Pentagon state the drone was "unflyable and uncontrollable so we brought it down", and that "Russians have not recovered the drone". The UN Security Council's US member said "we've taken steps to protect our equities", so the drone probably self-destructed.

Either way, the Russian Ambassador to the US was summoned for a talk, and then Russian Media reported him as stating "the drone incident as "a provocation" and that "the unacceptable activity of the US military in the close proximity to our borders is a cause for concern".

TBH?
I'm thinking this is a case of two Russian Pilots with more balls than brains who decided they'd have a little fun with the drone. So they pull some stupid "Maverick tricks", and one of them certainly damaged his own plane hitting the drone. I would not be surprised to find out both pilots 'vanish' over this little stunt, as I don't think Putin wanted anything that blatant against NATO/US at this point.

[LaCroix]

Something for the statistic nerds - in the last month of vicious fighting, losing
20k confirmed KIA
estimated 60-80k WIA
200 tanks
300 APV
200 artillery
30 anti air
10 aircraft
and countless other things,
they managed to occupy an additional 0.04% of Ukraine.

Putin remains a master strategist.

[LaCroix]

Putin had a freudian slip in an interview and mentioned that only 12 million people live beyond the ural, while he official figures say 27. He probalby slipped up and used the "internal use only" numbers.

There has been a long dispute about the pop numbers are "beautified" to make Moscovia look stronger. Just as well, it means extra money for regional governors to spend on people that don't exist. #passiveIncome

Still, since those regions are the primary source for millitary meat, it means that not only their tanks are stronger on paper, even their perceived infantry horde power is a paper tiger...