UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Marko Dash]

IIRC the version used currently is the M1911A1 that was developed in the 1920s

I thought there was a SF version developed in the last 2-3 decades?

what you're looking for is the M45, which is basically just the 1911 with some modern aftermarket upgrades, most noticeably an integral picatinny rail for lights and lasers.

[madd0c0t0r2]

There are plenty of cases where newer is better (T55 with APC vs Chally 2 with DU APFSDS, for example). I'm not sure Katyusha is one of those. If the propellant/warhead is in-date, then there's not that much time or technology can do to improve on it in the role of "mass-produced launcher to plaster a grid square in HE".

I guess it will come down to the quality of the vehicle it's strapped to, where those vehicles can go (mud proof?), the number of rockets that vehicles can carry, and how quickly it can reload.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyusha_rocket_launcher goes down through many many different vehicles, mutates into the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21_Grad on modern trucks, which Poland developed to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WR-40_Langusta with fire-control systems ect.

At the minute, we know a truck with a rack of rockets on it has been spotted.

[LaCroix]

Regarding the katyusha it's the actual vintage stuff...
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639908853373386754

That one is a BM13 - not sure if it is a lend/lease on a studebaker or a ZIL fron that angle, but I guess the later. anyway, they were built the same time...

This one is a 132 mm launcher, so they are definitely using old stockpile ammo, with 6-10 km range wiht 5kg warhead or 5km with a 20kg warhead.
In comparison, GRAD launchers use missiles that can go 20-40 km, depending on type.

The fact that they are pulling that stuff out of storage means that they have serious issues with Grad ammo or not grad launchers in reserve.

If they are actually using these things, they will be deathtraps - 10k is pretty much mortar range, and you DEFINITELY know where the thing is - these things were already notoriously easy to counter-battery in WW2 - modern counter battery will be insulted.

There are even pictures of IS3 being shipped around on trains, so it seems they are realizing that T55 are actually a stupid idea, and went a bit older, but heavier armor and 122mm gun. Or the T55 are too rotten to make them work, and you are not getting less accuracy, anyway, since both are essentially targeting with MK.I eyeball. Given that they are not advancing, anyway, even the snail-pace set by an IS3 is no issue. It might be somewhat effective against drone drops and some artillery, but 300mm effective armor is still something most modern missiles will not even notice.
Since they aren't selling all that gas, anymore, they might as well use it, but I have my doubt about how they will manage to actually deliver it to these thirsty, thirsty bastards...

Anyway, bakhmut is still holding and trading space for casualty numbers (and making sure russia spends its time shooting u a city already mostly destroyed and kee their forces conveniently bunched up in 3 areas)), ardiivka is also holding, and the ground is still waaay too muddy for the offensive to start, so it is again postponed, to April...

On the other hand, Marders, Bradleys and challengers are already there, Migs and Leopards are flooding in, so every week, ukrainians are getting better prepared, while russians are still loosing double digits tanks and dozens of APC and artillery per day.
It's harrowing that this time is bought by trading space and 5:1 casualties, but so far, the strategy is still working

[LaCroix]

The fact that they are pulling that stuff out of storage means that they have serious issues with Grad ammo or not grad launchers in reserve.

Come to think of it, there have been thousands of GRAD built, and Russia has, in theory, at least 4k of them in duty/storage, so I am guessing they are running out of missiles, and since there is still a nice stockpile of 132mm katyusha rockets lying about... And you only need someone who can drive a truck, point it in the rough direction, jack a rack up or down a few degrees according to orders and push a button.

Who cares if they can only get one or maybe two uses out the system until they either blow up, themselves, or get sniped by a drone or counter-battery - they got thousands of those old things in storage, and people are even cheaper, right?

[Solauren]

Given how badly 'active duty' material was shown to have been kept and maintained by the Russian military, you have to wonder what the condition is on the stuff they had in store is. Despite what movies might say, you can't just leave hardware sitting around for decades without maintenance!

[LaCroix]

Given how badly 'active duty' material was shown to have been kept and maintained by the Russian military, you have to wonder what the condition is on the stuff they had in store is. Despite what movies might say, you can't just leave hardware sitting around for decades without maintenance!

Since they even declare their soldiers as "single use", I don't think they will be bothered if the truck manages to get to the front, fires one salvo and then craps out or blows up.

These things get a once over by a mechanic, a battery, a tank of fuel and a driver with a map. Russia does not care if the brakes work, the tires have proper threads or that there is rust everywhere - if they get the engine to turn over - add fuel, some gunk and paint so people do not see the holes, mount missiles, add one expendable human, and you have a disposeable artillery strike.

[madd0c0t0r2]

I'm wondering if they are to be used as counteroffensive 'fuck the area up if the ukrainian's enter it' ? Seems more sensible then trying to advance them into mortars.

[Solauren]

if they get the engine to turn over - add fuel, some gunk and paint so people do not see the holes, mount missiles, add one expendable human, and you have a disposeable artillery strike.

And if the engine can't turn over, have it dragged there by another vehicle....
Okay, yeah, I see that now. They're playing the 'hope we can make it to expensive to beat on us more' game now.

[The_Saint]

Given how badly 'active duty' material was shown to have been kept and maintained by the Russian military, you have to wonder what the condition is on the stuff they had in store is. Despite what movies might say, you can't just leave hardware sitting around for decades without maintenance!

Considering satellite imagery of several of the tank parks has shown little change in some areas it has always seemed odd that they started pulling T-64s and T-62s out of storage when there are visibly still thousands of T-72 hulls sitting there. It was fairly early on, about May last year when the 1st Guards Tank Army (the supposed tip of the spear) CO had some fairly strong worded things to say when they found their vehicle park of spare T-80s were mostly missing engines and other critical parts and in no way easily restorable to service without factory level overhaul.

This isn't so much scraping the barrel as going "hey the barrel is quite full but I can only scrape some edible bits off this side over here because the rest of it has gone mouldy and rotten".

[Broomstick]

Wonder if some of those tank parks actually contained decoys rather than real tanks?

[The_Saint]

Wonder if some of those tank parks actually contained decoys rather than real tanks?

More a combination of 50+ years of poor care/maintenance and graft combined with weather and facilities not conducive to good storage conditions (to be fair Russia doesn't have the equivalent of say the Arizona desert to store heavy equipment in the dry).

One thing that has come out of this war for all sides to realise is that while budgets and political decisions like to see big (or small) numbers on paper when it comes down to it it's less about what exists or could exist on paper and more about what you can actually muster up when the proverbial shit hits the fan. Whether that's Russia with tank parks of thousands of vehicles or somewhere like the Netherlands with a theoretical tank park in a warehouse).

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Given how badly 'active duty' material was shown to have been kept and maintained by the Russian military, you have to wonder what the condition is on the stuff they had in store is. Despite what movies might say, you can't just leave hardware sitting around for decades without maintenance!

Considering satellite imagery of several of the tank parks has shown little change in some areas it has always seemed odd that they started pulling T-64s and T-62s out of storage when there are visibly still thousands of T-72 hulls sitting there. It was fairly early on, about May last year when the 1st Guards Tank Army (the supposed tip of the spear) CO had some fairly strong worded things to say when they found their vehicle park of spare T-80s were mostly missing engines and other critical parts and in no way easily restorable to service without factory level overhaul.

This isn't so much scraping the barrel as going "hey the barrel is quite full but I can only scrape some edible bits off this side over here because the rest of it has gone mouldy and rotten".

I was going to say they're not just scraping the barrel, they've broken through the bottom

[Jub]

The thing that we can't forget is that even an old tank is a threat to a lot of Ukrainian units that aren't tanks and can be used to shell buildings. They also require the expenditure of munitions that may or may not be in limited supply. Russia could be trying to 'waste' Ukrainian munitions on the obsolete kit before sending in the next wave of more up-to-date equipment but they might also just lack the capacity to send in anything aside from what they're currently activating.

[LaCroix]

I'm wondering if they are to be used as counteroffensive 'fuck the area up if the ukrainian's enter it' ? Seems more sensible then trying to advance them into mortars.

That would be stupid - see, they are an unarmored truck with a bunch of explodey missiles as a sunroof... with a range of about 10km max.

Drones fly much further. the ones the ukraine uses for scouting and dropping grenades on stuff.

I am not saying that they intend to do so, but that's the problem when you use stuff from WW2 in modern times.

The Katyjusa was perfectly viable when there were no aerial scouts, drones, thermal sights, sattellites and artillery only ranged out to 20km, max, with no gps and other targeting help.
They were intended to advance behind amassed tank or infantry lines and fire over them to soften up targets - but that only works if infantry support weapons can't lob anything at you because they can only target visually. 5-10km range in WW2 meant that you were pretty much safe from anything unless you drove in the open and they sat on a hill, with a full arty battallion in close range.

You want such a thing nowhere near a modern frontline, when every bozo can have aerial surveillane and man-portable air strikes.

There is a reason why the modern version (GRAD) is using missiles with 20 to 40 km range, or the Western Military versions (Himars) are using 100 to 300 km range ones.

[Solauren]

Russia could be trying to 'waste' Ukrainian munitions on the obsolete kit before sending in the next wave of more up-to-date equipment but they might also just lack the capacity to send in anything aside from what they're currently activating.

The only problem I have with that theory is the waste of fuel on Russia's part to move the obsolete kit into position.

Now, that being said, I realize Russia has vast fuel capability, so they might see it as a viable idea.

[Jub]

Russia could be trying to 'waste' Ukrainian munitions on the obsolete kit before sending in the next wave of more up-to-date equipment but they might also just lack the capacity to send in anything aside from what they're currently activating.

The only problem I have with that theory is the waste of fuel on Russia's part to move the obsolete kit into position.

Now, that being said, I realize Russia has vast fuel capability, so they might see it as a viable idea.

Realistically Russia's been throwing good money after bad for a year now. Once the initial push didn't work and the west started to get involved Putin needed to find and excuse to cut and run. Now all he can do is hope to make it expensive enough that NATO and the west stop supporting Ukraine without his funds running out first.

[LadyTevar]

Russia could be trying to 'waste' Ukrainian munitions on the obsolete kit before sending in the next wave of more up-to-date equipment but they might also just lack the capacity to send in anything aside from what they're currently activating.

The only problem I have with that theory is the waste of fuel on Russia's part to move the obsolete kit into position.

Now, that being said, I realize Russia has vast fuel capability, so they might see it as a viable idea.

Realistically Russia's been throwing good money after bad for a year now. Once the initial push didn't work and the west started to get involved Putin needed to find and excuse to cut and run. Now all he can do is hope to make it expensive enough that NATO and the west stop supporting Ukraine without his funds running out first.

At this point I don't think Putin has a "get out" plan. I fully believe he is all-in, because in his mind he is going to win this by any means necessary.

I am also fully believing that Russia is activating the old WW2 equipment because that's all they have left.

[LaCroix]

His problem is that the original plan A was :

1 Overrun Ukraine
2 Ukraine surrenders
3 Everyone is frightened of Russian military
4 NATO collapses
5 Make more demands/invade next country/world domination

His next plan was:
1 Defeat Ukraine
2 Ukraine surrenders
3 Everyone is still afraid of Russian military
4 Rebuild military
5 Make more demands of frightened NATO/prepare for next invasion

But then suddenly everything went really bad, so his current plan is

1 Demand peace talks
2 Demant control over the occupied territories
3 Demand end of sanctions
4 Demand end of Hague trials
5 Demand deescalation/disarmament of NATO
6 Rebuild
7 Try again

But there is nothing he can threaten us with, anymore. And we know about the last two bullet points on the list.

All the red lines were passed, and Russia failed to intimidate anyone. We see a paper tiger, that can be held in check by a small country, with 1% of NATO Budget trickling in. Russia knows that nukes are no solution, because we have them too and are now willing to use them, because Russians called the pot an showed their hand while having nothing but a pair of jack. The world is done with their bullshit and we won't be bullied, anymore.

Nordic countries join Nato and unify their airforce. Netherlands and Germany unify their army and Navy.

Pretty much all of the EU is ramping up arms production and budgeting for a "Never again" scenario. Hungary is being brought around and is now starting to tow the line, again, as they see their daddy will not protect them.

We may even see a complete unification of EU armed forces, if Germany and Netherlands are an indicator.

Putins only hope is to somehow throw men into the line and suddenly being able to wipe NATO-fueled forces asside with superhuman Ruasian BEARPOWER, and somehow, the world get's frightened of them, again.

That's why Xi visited Russia - he wanted to see what is there, see the man and decide if he wanted to tie China, who is still feared as global player, to that sinking ship. He came, he saw, and he wasn't impressed. That's why China did not offer assistance, why they officially stated that they tested T-14 Armata, and it was crap. And why they state that nukes in Belarusia is wrong. China pretty much stated that they will stand by and watch.

their only price was written out in the peace plan they presented - when they stated that national borders need to be preserved, they did not talk about Ukraine. They said that they are fine with beating up Russia, but we are not allowed to split it up by force. If it falls apart, they are fine (that's why they speculated who would grab what) but we are not to demand it.

[Broomstick]

I have just one tiny English usage point to make here:

.. is now starting to tow the line...

The idiom is toe the line, not tow, although yes they do sound exactly the same. For more detail on origin or usage please see this link

We may even see a complete unification of EU armed forces, if Germany and Netherlands are an indicator.

As a general rule, I think it's better if the nations of Europe become more cooperative and unified with each other. It sure as hell beats them fighting each other.

China pretty much stated that they will stand by and watch.

I'm OK with that. I'd rather have China on the sidelines than backing Russia.

They said that they are fine with beating up Russia, but we are not allowed to split it up by force. If it falls apart, they are fine (that's why they speculated who would grab what) but we are not to demand it.

As a general statement that's not a bad idea either. Given how attempts to re-arrange nations from outside have usually gone "letting it fall apart" is probably the least damaging course of action. If we don't want Russia to interfere with other nations then other nations shouldn't be trying to break up Russia.

I'm not a fan of China, they are not an ally of my nation at this point even if we do engage in a lot of trade with them. I suspect they are providing some aid to Russia and I'm positive they're buying whatever raw materials they can, but I also think Xi would be happy to let Putin fall. After which Xi will probably try to figure out how to profit from the situation.

[Solauren]

I wouldn't be surprised if China is buying up resources from Russia, but cheap. Really cheap. That would let them stockpile resources at 'rock bottom prices', and let Russia keep going until it completely burns itself out/collapses.

Then China can sell their stockpile to the rest of the world at inflated prices, including to the Russian successor states.

For all intents and purposes, Russia is having a 'going out of business sale', and China is buying it up cheap to sell off to it's creditors, while giving them money to keep the sale going until they collapse totally.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah I suspect China is giving Russia just enough that Russia stays dependent on Chinese support but not enough that it would seriously hurt China or make them dependent on Russia.

Putin's issues are really twofold here first I doubt there was any plan beyond "intimidate everyone into doing what we want" and second while the Russian military was really strong and advanced on paper, majority of the strength existed only on paper.

Yes a T-55 (or even a T-34) will be dangerous against a unit that has no tanks or AT weapons, even a spear can kill a man just as well as it did when it was the primary weapon (or possibly even better as modern body armor isn't really designed to counter threats like that) still no one is suggesting spearmen would make a viable replacement for modern infantry. The Thing to remember that if Russia truly had the strength it liked to pretend it has there would be no need to use older tanks as there would be more then enough T-62 and T-72s (not mention T-80s, T-90s or maybe even T-14s) to serve their needs in this conflict.

The very fact Russia might want to conserve their modern equipment (assuming that's the case) does not say good things about the state of their military and the more likely scenario is that Russia is using T-55s and BM-13s because that's best they can get to work, possibly because it was taken from Museums and those wanted to keep their displays looking at least semi-decent and thus are in better repair then the more modern stuff.

[His Divine Shadow]

Oh Turkey approved Finlands nato application now, so we're in

[LaCroix]

@Broomie... Typo. I know it's toe, the damn keys are just so inconveniently close, and on a cursory glance to spell-check, this kind of typo does not immidiately pop out.

On a second thought - "towing the line, again" would also be a perfectly fine analogy for Hungary, which has a habit of just looking busy while letting others do the work, and then loudly complaining how it was them who had pulled the cart out of the mud, all on their own. ´

On related news, China has invited all former Soviet Nations to an "Asian conference", without inviting Russia...
So for them, it's going to look less like "freedom", but more like "under new administration"...

But yeah, while bleeding them dry of everything they can get, and standing by to maybe grab a bit of the companies that go under , and possibly even grabbing some land (they lately advised their cartographers to use the old chinese names for the Manchurian provinces and cities, again), they are definitely going to to take Russia's toys...

[LaCroix]

Russia has started ferrying 70's era anti tank guns to the frontline.

Yes - unguided, visually aimed, line of sight, huge as fuck anti tank guns. Like - large as a tank sized, towed anti tank guns.

Do I have to mention that even the Leopard 1 was specifically designed to withstand exactly those guns, which were the backbone of soviet ATG forces back then? Leo2, Abrams and especially Challenger will shrug these things off. Pretty sure even a T72 would resist those. If they even manage to hit, as you see - visually aimed, manual ATG.

Again, olf as fuck things that are hard to conceal from a drone with thermal vision and can be taken out with a single dropped drone grenade.

Oh - and nobody has trained using those things in well over 2 generations.

And Russia has offered another buy back of ammo from NK - the last stuff was already degraded old soviet stock 152mm that had huge failure rate - maybe NK will send them the rest, but since they sent all the crap the last time, this has to be better stuff - and after all, this time, Russia will pay in food!

Given that NK is pretty much the only state stocking and producing 152 other than Russia, we can be pretty sure that the last few chemical plants that sudenly caught fire during the last month have finally made Russia realize that they can not ramp up production.

Still, since half of the country currently can't be traversed due to bad snow storm, even if they had ammo and better stuff still in storage, they can't send anything right now, which means that storage and reserves will be significantly down in about one week or so- when the Ukrainians might finally start the offensive.

Information blackout from the UA forces in the donbass/zhaporisia areas is now enacted, just as in earlier offensives, so I am kind of on the edge of my seat right now...

[Lord Revan]

While this could be a ploy by Russians to get Ukrainians to waste munitions of stuff that's older then most Russian soldier at front lines (as others have suggested), a more likely explanation is that Russia is simply forced to use the old as that's the only things even semi functional and only because it was built super robust to begin with and all the modern stuff is unusable as the money meant to maintain those things went in the mansions or yachts for the generals and what ever the everyone from the privates to colonels wanted to use the money for and only fraction of said money went into maintaining the equipment.