UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[bilateralrope]

Hey, I get that there are nations that don't want to be part of a US/Western hegemony. It should be their choice. And for those purposes calling one of those groups "BRICS" works just as well as "NATO" or "The West". Nothing wrong with that, either. But calling an alliance dominated by nations located in the northern hemisphere, and quite far north at that, "the Global South" is bullshit. Call it BRICS.

A quick skim of the wikipedia page says that global north/south can be used interchangeably with developed/developing countries. Which doesn't come with the baggage of calling Australia and New Zealand part of the "global north" derailing any conversations involving people who haven't run across those terms.

[Ralin]

Also, seems to me that neutrality in most cases favors Russia over Ukraine. Ukraine is looking abroad for foreign military aid and support. Russia is looking abroad for people to sell oil and buy stuff from.

[Lord Revan]

He did the exact same thing at the other forum - a few reasonable posts to start then into troll mode. Also same user name and avatar motif. Almost exact same text and links, too! Definitely some copy-paste going on. Wonder how many other places he's plagued?

Probably a co-incidence but some asshole on a Facebook game uses the same Vault Boy avatar as this guy. I noticed the graph in his post only goes up to 2009, not exactly current when it's 14 years out of date

To be fair to him (not that his overall point isn't bullshit), while the graph is out of date the trend did continue. Total debt, public and private, in the United States is currently north of 700% of GDP according to CEIC data. The Federal Reserve only measures public debt, which is a small portion of that total, but still over 100% of GDP, with its highest point in the second quarter of 2020 and declining since.

Isn't USA mostly in debt to itself anyway, with debts to other nations being so small a portion that it's not really blackmail or deathblow material?

[Ralin]

Isn't USA mostly in debt to itself anyway, with debts to other nations being so small a portion that it's not really blackmail or deathblow material?

I think the issue is more that because of complicated financy reasons the dollar losing its position would have knock-on effects that would make existing debt a bigger deal.

Not like Americans can't be motivated to want to fuck over the US government. Especially if they're out a lot of money.

[Broomstick]

Also, seems to me that neutrality in most cases favors Russia over Ukraine. Ukraine is looking abroad for foreign military aid and support. Russia is looking abroad for people to sell oil and buy stuff from.

Up until February '22 Ukraine was just looking abroad for people to sell stuff to and buy from. It's the invasion that flipped that to military aid and support.

Russia has more power to hurt small countries than Ukraine does, and more impetus. I can completely understand why smaller and less powerful nations don't want to get involved.

[Lord Revan]

Also, seems to me that neutrality in most cases favors Russia over Ukraine. Ukraine is looking abroad for foreign military aid and support. Russia is looking abroad for people to sell oil and buy stuff from.

Up until February '22 Ukraine was just looking abroad for people to sell stuff to and buy from. It's the invasion that flipped that to military aid and support.

Russia has more power to hurt small countries than Ukraine does, and more impetus. I can completely understand why smaller and less powerful nations don't want to get involved.

Also there could be case, some neutral countries might not want to trade with Russia either, literally not wanting to get involved one way or another.

[LadyTevar]

Banned the Ralfy-bot
Sorry folks, my fault for approving his first post, which actually made sense.

He did the exact same thing at the other forum - a few reasonable posts to start then into troll mode. Also same user name and avatar motif. Almost exact same text and links, too! Definitely some copy-paste going on. Wonder how many other places he's plagued?

No clue... but if they have distracted Mods probably more than one. Again, my fault, I skimmed his post the morning before work and he looked ok.

Now.... ABOUT THOSE US DOCUMENT LEAKS.

BBC quoted a source stating they first appeared on DISCORD, but haven't been able to track who did it?
BBC News: "Who Leaked Top Secret Documents?"

[Zaune]

Also there could be case, some neutral countries might not want to trade with Russia either, literally not wanting to get involved one way or another.

I don't think this is the kind of conflict where that's an option, not for any country that's got to share a border with either country. If the Russian army hadn't died on its collective arse once the war escalated beyond relatively easy targets, the rest of Eastern Europe would have to wonder if they were going to be in for the same treatment in the future. And if they did, being remembered as the people who saw all that going on and said, "Not our circus, not our monkeys" is not likely to win you much sympathy when it's you who needs help.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Banned the Ralfy-bot
Sorry folks, my fault for approving his first post, which actually made sense.

He did the exact same thing at the other forum - a few reasonable posts to start then into troll mode. Also same user name and avatar motif. Almost exact same text and links, too! Definitely some copy-paste going on. Wonder how many other places he's plagued?

No clue... but if they have distracted Mods probably more than one. Again, my fault, I skimmed his post the morning before work and he looked ok.

Now.... ABOUT THOSE US DOCUMENT LEAKS.

BBC quoted a source stating they first appeared on DISCORD, but haven't been able to track who did it?
BBC News: "Who Leaked Top Secret Documents?"

Now that I think about it their only value is to highlight to Russia how fucked their invasion is, it's not like they can exploit any of the information.

[Rogue 9]

They can certainly exploit knowledge of Ukraine's logistics and war plans.

[PainRack]

Probably a co-incidence but some asshole on a Facebook game uses the same Vault Boy avatar as this guy. I noticed the graph in his post only goes up to 2009, not exactly current when it's 14 years out of date

To be fair to him (not that his overall point isn't bullshit), while the graph is out of date the trend did continue. Total debt, public and private, in the United States is currently north of 700% of GDP according to CEIC data. The Federal Reserve only measures public debt, which is a small portion of that total, but still over 100% of GDP, with its highest point in the second quarter of 2020 and declining since.

Isn't USA mostly in debt to itself anyway, with debts to other nations being so small a portion that it's not really blackmail or deathblow material?

Most US Treasury debt is to Social security so as to speak, because the US govt debt is majority bought by SS . There's a significant portions purchased by overseas institutions.

Out of the 23 trillion dollar debt, 1 trillion is owned by China institutions.



The main problem with the debt is the debt ceiling at the moment, as the US needs to issue more bonds in order to meet current payments for government, even after the government has instituted extraordinary measures to keep it running. If the debt ceiling is not raised, the debt ISNT defaulted. Rather, people who are owed money from the US government aren't paid .



Social security has its own seperate fund and is seperate from US government debt. But it's also running into insolvency. Incidentally, the deaths of so many seniors due to Covid extended insolvency past 2036.

That's easily solved though by having a rate hike. There's a bit of rob peter to pay Paul, namely rob the current generation to pay the current senior but that's true for every country since baby boomer, large portion, unprecedented rise in elder care costs etc.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... k-suggests

Meanwhile , the leak promised to be damaging in terms of revealing US intelligence on Ukraine, such as air defences as well as their estimate of the counter offensive.


The earliest leak is found on a Minecraft discord but the player says he got it elsewhere. But those docs are apparently unmodified, so it's the best track so far

[LadyTevar]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... k-suggests

Meanwhile , the leak promised to be damaging in terms of revealing US intelligence on Ukraine, such as air defences as well as their estimate of the counter offensive.


The earliest leak is found on a Minecraft discord but the player says he got it elsewhere. But those docs are apparently unmodified, so it's the best track so far

Why leak it on Minecraft Discord, of all places?
I mean, I understand all the leaks on WarThunder, those idiots were arguing capabilities.

[Lord Revan]

Honestly if it is the documents that claim that Russia lost only 17 000 troops while Ukraine lost 70 000 (almost 4 times as much) I'd call those suspect as honestly Russia would be holding victory parades in Kyiv if they were able to inflict that much more casualties while being the attacker. Now if those numbers were reserve that I could buy.

[LadyTevar]

Honestly if it is the documents that claim that Russia lost only 17 000 troops while Ukraine lost 70 000 (almost 4 times as much) I'd call those suspect as honestly Russia would be holding victory parades in Kyiv if they were able to inflict that much more casualties while being the attacker. Now if those numbers were reserve that I could buy.

I think that's the document they're calling "Obviously Forged".

[KraytKing]

The document you reference is generally believed to be doctored. I would agree. I have found two documents, nearly identical: one claims Russian KIA at 16k-17.5k against Ukrainian 61k-71.5k, and the other claims Russian dead of 35.5k-43.5k against Ukrainian 16k-17.5k. The former also claims 600 Russian vehicle losses, while the latter claims 6,004. I find it convenient that the numbers given by the former document are neat little anagrams of each other. There is also some suspicious kerning in the ground vehicle loss figure, right where a comma would be. It is not corroborated by an additional document, which claims Russian tank losses alone exceed two thousand. The casualty ratio is also discouraged by tank loss ratios: Ukraine is claimed to have lost fewer than five hundred tanks.

The leak overall favors Russia due to the exposure of troop training schedules, supply schedules, and possibly most critically, SAM locations. It's fucking bad. A map of all SAM sites is out there now. Obviously, I imagine they were all being moved as soon as the document was out, but that's still a major blow. Also, it seems that ammunition for air defenses is due to run out in like May, which is right when the last NATO-trained assault brigades are supposed to arrive and kick off the big offensive. Needless to say, launching an offensive without strategic air cover would be very, very bad.

Implications are...not great. The Ukrainian military is, at best, half the size a lot of people thought if the numbers given are legit and complete. Russia is listed with a total of 544 battalions, of which 474 are located inside Ukraine. This includes reserves and possibly logistics formations, but still, it gives a maximum Russian manpower of 379,00 ish. This approximately fits expectations. The true figure could actually be a lot lower, however, since there are an awful lot of battalions running around FAR understrength. Ukraine, however, is listed with only 74 brigades--including territorial defense forces. At a list strength of 4,000 men each, that leaves about 300k troops. The number I've seen thrown around the Internet for a while is 600-900 thousand. Other documents in this leak confirm that a lot, and possibly most, of the Ukrainian military is operating at 25-50% strength. So even this number could be off by a factor of four.

Forming up for the fabled spring offensive, Ukraine has six to twelve assault brigades. Their equipment is, quite frankly, shit. Only one is expected to be fully equipped with Western tanks and mechanized, and it will be at a quarter the level of a NATO mechanized brigade. The rest will have a hodgepodge of equipment, including modernized T-55s. There is something of a disconnect here, though. The listed number of tanks in these assault brigades falls well short of the estimate of total operational armor left in Ukraine listed by another document, which claims that Ukraine has twice as many tanks in-theater as the Russians. We'll see what this means in practicality, however. If the Russians simply don't have any armor left, while the ZSU has it spread out in infantry support, then it could be why no territory is changing hands despite apparently a massive numbers disparity. It could also mean that the 200 or so piece of shit tanks in these assault brigades could really fuck up the frontline, too, if there is nothing to counter them except trenches.

This has been a very cursory analysis of the documents I've found. I can go more in depth if people want. I hesitate to post them directly: it's been very difficult to track down even the 15 or so I've found, and I've dug through a lot of nuked threads before finding some that hadn't been deleted yet. Mods, what's the policy here?

There are rumored to be about a hundred, including documents concerning politics in Israel and the rest of the Middle East. Of that, I only have screenshots of thumbnails in purged Discord servers. If anyone knows where to find them, I would really appreciate the tip.

[Lord Revan]

Honestly if it is the documents that claim that Russia lost only 17 000 troops while Ukraine lost 70 000 (almost 4 times as much) I'd call those suspect as honestly Russia would be holding victory parades in Kyiv if they were able to inflict that much more casualties while being the attacker. Now if those numbers were reserve that I could buy.

I think that's the document they're calling "Obviously Forged".

"Obviously forged" is putting it mildly, if the assaulter is attacking a weaker opponent and is causing almost 4 times the casualties then they took and is still pushed back as badly as the Russians are would say really bad thing about the quality of the attacker.

[Jub]

The leak overall favors Russia due to the exposure of troop training schedules, supply schedules, and possibly most critically, SAM locations. It's fucking bad. A map of all SAM sites is out there now. Obviously, I imagine they were all being moved as soon as the document was out, but that's still a major blow.

Ukraine already has to move its SAM sites rather often as the Russians have the capacity to strike pretty much anywhere within Ukraine with long-range munitions. This might have forced movement off the usual schedule but these sites shouldn't be considered permanent regardless.

Russia has been trying to cook the books for a long while now by throwing so many garbage numbers at the wall that casual observers lose faith in the numbers reported by both sides. What reason do we have to believe in the veracity of this leak when it could easily be Russian propaganda designed to make Ukrainian forces look weaker than they actually are?

[KraytKing]

It's a good point to consider, but it isn't airtight. Neither is the veracity of the leak.

Russia doesn't look good in the leak, not by a long shot. Half the active armor in theater as Ukraine, five times the losses to date. Double or triple KIA, almost double WIA. Six times the losses in non-tank armored vehicles. Double the losses in aircraft. All that, and the front has only moved in reverse since summer, except one busted up city. And of course, Russian troop deployments are listed as far below what they claim. And the Ukrainian figure of 17k KIA is...oddly low. Their rate of WIA is a lot more reasonable, well over 100,000, but 17k just seems a little off.

Forgot to mention this, but one document claims civilian dead of 8k-40k. That's a weirdly wide range, but that should not detract from the horror. That's a lot of dead civilians. War is hell.

Furthermore, special forces from various NATO countries seem to be in country. 14 US SOF, 50 British servicemen, a handful of French, a few others. Role seems to mostly be advisory. That could honestly point either way as far as veracity: I could see Russia fabricating heavy NATO involvement to drum up support, but I would also expect the MoD to claim the entire US 81st Airborne was holding Bakhmut if they were going to claim anything. Who knows.

[Ralin]

Given that this leak is apparently something that has been bouncing from server to server and so on and doesn't have a clear source (to us) it seems like an obvious response would be to confuse things by releasing fake versions to muddy the waters.

[PainRack]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... k-suggests

Meanwhile , the leak promised to be damaging in terms of revealing US intelligence on Ukraine, such as air defences as well as their estimate of the counter offensive.


The earliest leak is found on a Minecraft discord but the player says he got it elsewhere. But those docs are apparently unmodified, so it's the best track so far

Why leak it on Minecraft Discord, of all places?
I mean, I understand all the leaks on WarThunder, those idiots were arguing capabilities.

Apparently, some nerd leaked it to "prove that the Ukraine war is real ".

[bilateralrope]

Ukraine war: Russian parliament approves online call-up

By Sofia Samokhina & Kateryna Khinkulova
BBC News Russian

The Russian parliament has approved legislation to start serving call-up papers online.

The Kremlin has denied the move is aimed at speeding up further mobilisation of Russian men or putting a stop to widespread draft-dodging.

Thousands of Russians have avoided the draft to escape the war in Ukraine.

Critics say the law is further evidence of authorities creating an "electronic Gulag", referring to the Soviet-era network of prison camps.

Until now, conscription papers in Russia have had to be served in person or via an employer.

In reality, it has meant many avoiding the draft by moving away from where they were registered to live, or simply not opening the door when military officials came calling.

Under the new legislation, call-up papers will be deemed to be served as soon as they appear on a special "State Services" government portal called "Gosuslugi".

"The summons is considered received from the moment it is placed in the personal account of a person liable for military service," Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian parliament's defence committee, said on TV.

From that moment, a conscript will be obliged to turn up at his local enlistment office.

Citizens who fail to show up will be banned from travelling abroad and could face other restrictions. They will not be able to buy or sell property, their driving licences will be invalidated and they will be unable to register small businesses.

Of the 395 Russian MPs who voted on the legislation, 394 supported it and one abstained. Russia's lower house or State Duma has 450 MPs.

The new legislation will come into effect when it is signed by President Vladimir Putin, which is likely to happen soon.

Last September, the Kremlin began a chaotic emergency mobilisation campaign to support Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, amid a series of humiliating defeats after its full-scale invasion.

More than 300,000 former soldiers and ex-conscripts are believed to have been called up, in a drive that often saw young men being picked up on the street or in shopping malls.

Thousands of men aged 18 to 27 fled abroad to avoid the draft and protests broke out in numerous Russian cities, although they were swiftly suppressed.

According to leaked US documents, Russia is estimated to have suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties. Those numbers include 35,500-43,000 men killed in action and another 154,000-180,000 wounded.

BBC News Russian has compiled a list of 17,000 Russian servicemen who are confirmed dead, through gathering information from open sources, with names, ranks and in many cases, the military units they served in.

The last time Russian authorities revealed casualties figures was in September last year, when they confirmed the deaths of 5,937 servicemen.

"A once convenient online government portal turned out to have a flip side," tweeted Ilia Krasilshchik, who founded the Helpdesk website, which offers advice and assistance to Russian men trying to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine.

"In an instant, you can be marked out and your exit from the country can be shut off. That's it. Who needs new waves of mobilisation? Take people out one by one in an attractive interface of a digital state."

The State Services government web portal is widely used by Russians to apply for a new passport or a marriage licence, pay bills and fines or make an appointment with a GP.

But Mr Krasilshchik warned that the state had turned it into a site to provide the Russian state with cannon fodder for Ukrainian guns.

President Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, denied the new legislation was linked to an attempt to widen mobilisation: "This is simply to improve military records. The system has to match modern requirements."

So now everyone who might be drafted has to check Gosuslugi regularly, otherwise they risk being drafted without anyone telling them.

I wonder what hackers will do to that site and how it will affect who gets drafted and/or punished.

[Broomstick]

I would like to see a hacker make the system serve enlistment papers to Putin.

[PainRack]

Ukraine war: Russian parliament approves online call-up

By Sofia Samokhina & Kateryna Khinkulova
BBC News Russian

The Russian parliament has approved legislation to start serving call-up papers online.

The Kremlin has denied the move is aimed at speeding up further mobilisation of Russian men or putting a stop to widespread draft-dodging.

Thousands of Russians have avoided the draft to escape the war in Ukraine.

Critics say the law is further evidence of authorities creating an "electronic Gulag", referring to the Soviet-era network of prison camps.

Until now, conscription papers in Russia have had to be served in person or via an employer.

In reality, it has meant many avoiding the draft by moving away from where they were registered to live, or simply not opening the door when military officials came calling.

Under the new legislation, call-up papers will be deemed to be served as soon as they appear on a special "State Services" government portal called "Gosuslugi".

"The summons is considered received from the moment it is placed in the personal account of a person liable for military service," Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian parliament's defence committee, said on TV.

From that moment, a conscript will be obliged to turn up at his local enlistment office.

Citizens who fail to show up will be banned from travelling abroad and could face other restrictions. They will not be able to buy or sell property, their driving licences will be invalidated and they will be unable to register small businesses.

Of the 395 Russian MPs who voted on the legislation, 394 supported it and one abstained. Russia's lower house or State Duma has 450 MPs.

The new legislation will come into effect when it is signed by President Vladimir Putin, which is likely to happen soon.

Last September, the Kremlin began a chaotic emergency mobilisation campaign to support Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, amid a series of humiliating defeats after its full-scale invasion.

More than 300,000 former soldiers and ex-conscripts are believed to have been called up, in a drive that often saw young men being picked up on the street or in shopping malls.

Thousands of men aged 18 to 27 fled abroad to avoid the draft and protests broke out in numerous Russian cities, although they were swiftly suppressed.

According to leaked US documents, Russia is estimated to have suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties. Those numbers include 35,500-43,000 men killed in action and another 154,000-180,000 wounded.

BBC News Russian has compiled a list of 17,000 Russian servicemen who are confirmed dead, through gathering information from open sources, with names, ranks and in many cases, the military units they served in.

The last time Russian authorities revealed casualties figures was in September last year, when they confirmed the deaths of 5,937 servicemen.

"A once convenient online government portal turned out to have a flip side," tweeted Ilia Krasilshchik, who founded the Helpdesk website, which offers advice and assistance to Russian men trying to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine.

"In an instant, you can be marked out and your exit from the country can be shut off. That's it. Who needs new waves of mobilisation? Take people out one by one in an attractive interface of a digital state."

The State Services government web portal is widely used by Russians to apply for a new passport or a marriage licence, pay bills and fines or make an appointment with a GP.

But Mr Krasilshchik warned that the state had turned it into a site to provide the Russian state with cannon fodder for Ukrainian guns.

President Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, denied the new legislation was linked to an attempt to widen mobilisation: "This is simply to improve military records. The system has to match modern requirements."

So now everyone who might be drafted has to check Gosuslugi regularly, otherwise they risk being drafted without anyone telling them.

I wonder what hackers will do to that site and how it will affect who gets drafted and/or punished.

What the hell???

My mobilisation involves sms, mail, email, online web portal AND my workplace can check on my mobilisation.

Being drafted involves the same save for email because they need you to register your email after the draft.

It's when you don't show up that we start making physical visits....

[LadyTevar]

I would like to see a hacker make the system serve enlistment papers to Putin.

Why stop there?
Hit all 394 who signed this Legislation. Add in those Oligarchs who have been sitting back watching Putin sink Russia to the ground. Hit every single Russian Official who's not already in the military machine.

[Solauren]

I would like to see a hacker make the system serve enlistment papers to Putin.

Why stop there?
Hit all 394 who signed this Legislation. Add in those Oligarchs who have been sitting back watching Putin sink Russia to the ground. Hit every single Russian Official who's not already in the military machine.

Failing that, hit EVERYONE at once.

That would force the government to follow up with their entire population, and could force a general revolt.