UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[bilateralrope]

Unmarked envelope or paper bag, I expect.

That cranks up the cost. Because the handler needs to physically hand over the cash every time. Which likely means travelling between all the locations that their recruits are transferred to.

[Ralin]

Let's cut to the chase. These are all valid questions that would have to be worked out, but are you actually disagreeing with the general point that it's doable for a country like Russia's intelligence service and would probably be worth their time to set up?

[bilateralrope]

Let's cut to the chase. These are all valid questions that would have to be worked out, but are you actually disagreeing with the general point that it's doable for a country like Russia's intelligence service and would probably be worth their time to set up?

The questions make me doubt that Russia can afford it.

[Gandalf]

It's a relatively trivial cost. Russia may not have its old Soviet wealth, but they do have a bit of coin for shit like this.

I recall reading that the rising cost of living in places like the US makes a wider pool of desperate people.

[LadyTevar]

It's a relatively trivial cost. Russia may not have its old Soviet wealth, but they do have a bit of coin for shit like this.

I recall reading that the rising cost of living in places like the US makes a wider pool of desperate people.

Hell, catch me during winter when I'm getting less than $90/week for Unemployment, and YES I'd accept money like that.

[Gandalf]

Indeed. There's a lot of people with access to certain documents that just aren't well paid relative to the value of the information with which they work. While the person in question seems to be paid in online social capital, just helping with the cost of living would be enough to get some people on side.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

The phrase 'penny wise, pound foolish' comes to mind. Then again, Congress has returned to its 'cut the military budget' mentality until recently (the current budget always has been woefully inadequate for what Congress wants the military to do), meaning that the military is getting short of everything.

Given the BS that Congress constantly pulled, I'm just surprised that the US military hasn't pulled a military coup yet.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

If they had the budget to do that they wouldn't have any need to.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

If they had the budget to do that they wouldn't have any need to.

Not really. Coups have been done with far lesser budgets than the US (both in relative and absolute terms). The only limiting factor has been the will and PR capacity.

I mean, back in 2020, there had been rumors of the US military thinking about pulling a coup if Trump won. While you shouldn't be putting salt into rumors, the fact that such rumors are coming up should be an indicator.

[Gandalf]

Not really. There's enough people in existence that rumours concerning all sorts of wacky ideas will come into existence.

[LadyTevar]

The phrase 'penny wise, pound foolish' comes to mind. Then again, Congress has returned to its 'cut the military budget' mentality until recently (the current budget always has been woefully inadequate for what Congress wants the military to do), meaning that the military is getting short of everything.

Given the BS that Congress constantly pulled, I'm just surprised that the US military hasn't pulled a military coup yet.

Most military and retired military seem to take that "Swear to uphold the Constitution" very seriously.

[LadyTevar]

Putin Visits Kherson Region

Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited Moscow-controlled parts of Ukraine's southern Kherson region, the Kremlin says.

It says he attended a meeting to hear reports from military commanders.

Mr Putin also reportedly visited Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russia claims to have annexed both regions, but does not fully control either.

The BBC has verified that Mr Putin visited Kherson's coastal Henichensk area - but it is still unclear when.

Mr Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the visit took place on 17 April. However, footage initially posted on the Kremlin's website contradicts this statement.
In the clip released by Mr Putin's press office, the Russian president can be clearly heard saying that the Easter holiday is "coming up".
Orthodox Easter was celebrated in Russia on 16 April, the day before the date claimed by Mr Peskov.
The video on the Kremlin website has since been edited, with Mr Putin's words "coming up" removed.

Such trips by the Russian leader are rare, although he made a surprise visit to the city of Mariupol in March.

Mr Putin told the military meeting in Kherson that, while he did not want to distract them from their duties, "it is important for me to hear your opinion on how the situation is developing, to listen to you, to exchange information".

Russian troops retreated from the city of Kherson late last year, losing the only regional capital it had managed to capture since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
However, some of the region remains under Russian control.

In a separate development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday visited the frontline town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region.
His office published a video where Mr Zelensky is seen handing awards to soldiers, who have for months been defending the town from Russian attacks.

Responding to reports of Mr Putin's visits, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Mr Zelensky's office, tweeted that the Russian leader was touring "the occupied and ruined territories" of Ukraine "to enjoy the crimes of his minions for the last time".
"Putin's degradation is impressive," he said.

In the video released by the Kremlin of the trip to Ukraine, Mr Putin is seen stepping out of a helicopter in a field before he is greeted by a man, thought to be military commander Col Gen Oleg Makarevich.

He is then filmed speaking in a control room, sat between Col Gen Makarevich and the head of Russia's airborne forces, Col Gen Mikhail Teplinsky.
Col Gen Teplinsky returned to the front line after allegedly being removed in January, American military experts and British intelligence have reported.
"Teplinsky is likely one of the few senior Russian generals widely respected by the rank-and-file," the UK Ministry of Defence wrote on social media on Sunday.
"His recent turbulent career suggests intense tensions between factions within the Russian General Staff about Russia's military approach in Ukraine."

Later in the video, Mr Putin presents what is reported to be a copy of an icon he says belonged to "one of the most decorated defence ministers of the Russian Army in the 19th Century".
We see a road sign reading "see you later in the Kherson region" next to a hotel that has been verified by the BBC as being in the Kherson region. There are then aerial shots taken over a coastal village in the same area.

Afterwards, Mr Putin is seen getting out of a helicopter once again and is then shown in different clothes being taken into a bunker and speaking with Col Gen Alexander Lapin, chief of staff of Russia's ground forces.
The Kremlin says Mr Putin visited the Vostok headquarters, which belongs to Russia's National Guard, in occupied Luhansk.
It has also said that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov did not accompany the president on the trip as it was a "big risk" for Russia's top commanders to be in one place so close to the front lines.

[LadyTevar]

RUSSIAN PLANE BOMBS THEIR OWN CITY

A Russian Sukhoi-34 fighter-jet has accidentally bombed the Russian city of Belgorod, around 40km (25 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

The bomb left a 20m (60ft) crater and caused an explosion so large it blew a car on to the roof of a nearby shop.

Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said authorities had ordered the evacuation of a damaged nine-story block of flats as a precaution.
Three people were injured and several buildings were damaged, he said.

Video posted on social media showed the impact of the blast, lifting a vehicle on to the roof of a supermarket as traffic streamed along Prospekt Vatutina, close to the centre of the city.

In a brief statement, the Russian defence ministry admitted that one of its Su-34 fighter bombers had "accidentally discharged aircraft ordnance" at 22:15 local time (19:15 GMT) on Thursday.
It was a bureaucratic way of saying that the jet had mistakenly fired a weapon. It didn't specify which one.

The bomb landed at an intersection of two roads not far from the city centre and next to residential buildings.

Two women were taken to hospital for treatment, according to the governor. But with a Russian bomber hitting a busy residential district the consequences could have been far worse.
"Thank God no one was killed," he said on social media.

CCTV footage of the incident suggests that local residents did, indeed, have a lucky escape.
The video shows a series of cars passing a crossroads, before an object lands on the ground nearby.

There is no immediate explosion. The ordnance detonates approximately 18 seconds later, blowing up a section of the road, catching one of the cars as it passes and sending a parked car flying into the air before it lands on the supermarket roof.

Though embarrassing for the Russian military, the admission of "an accident" suggests that officials here do not believe the incident will negatively impact Russian public opinion of what the Kremlin still calls its "special military operation".

In times of war and conflict, accidents happen, sometimes with devastating consequences. Last October a Sukhoi fighter jet - again, an Su-34 - crashed in the Russian city of Yeysk killing at least 13 people.

The military says it has launched an investigation into the incident. Quoting a former military pilot, pro-government news site Moskovsky Komsomolets suggested "the conclusions [of the investigation] are unlikely to be made public, but lessons will be learned".

By morning maintenance workers had begun the work of repairing the busy intersection in Belgorod. The mayor said much of the work would take place at the weekend and the road would be resurfaced on Monday.

The regional governor said Belgorod's residents had endured a difficult night but would get through it.

Russian jets regularly fly over Belgorod, a city of 370,000, on their way to Ukraine.
It lies just north of Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv, and has come under periodic Ukrainian attack since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine last year.

[bilateralrope]

Some more details:

Russian jet accidentally drops bomb on Russian city of Belgorod, state media says

By Radina Gigova, Victoria Butenko, Josh Pennington and Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 8:52 AM EDT, Fri April 21, 2023

A Russian warplane dropped a bomb on a Russian city of more than 400,000 people late Thursday, leaving a crater 20 meters (65 feet) across, blowing a car onto a roof and damaging buildings in what state media called an “accidental” or “emergency” release of air ordnance.

A Russian Su-34 aircraft, a twin-engine fighter-bomber, was performing a flight over the city of Belgorod, 40 kilometers (24.8 miles) north of the border with Ukraine when the “accidental” drop of munition took place, according to reports from state news agency RIA Novosti.

“At around 22:15 Moscow time on April 20, when a Su-34 plane of the Russian Aerospace Forces was performing a flight above the city of Belgorod, an emergency release of an air ordnance occurred,” TASS quoted the Russian Defense Ministry as saying.

“It happened at the intersection of one of the central streets, leaving a huge impact crater with a radius of 20 meters,” Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the Belgorod region, said in a Telegram post.

An overturned car landed on the roof of a store, according to RIA Novosti.

Belgorod Mayor Valentin Demidov wrote on his Telegram channel that several apartment buildings were damaged in the blast.

Two people were reported injured in the explosion, Gladkov said.

Russian state media boasted about the country’s Su-34 warplanes last December, when it said a “new batch of … frontline bombers” had been delivered to Russian forces to use against Ukraine. It did not give a specific number of planes delivered.

“The Su-34 bomber will constitute the basic strike power of Russian frontline aircraft. The upgraded Su-34 warplane features extended combat capabilities enabling it to employ advanced air-launched munitions, increase the range of striking ground and naval targets and expand the conditions and accuracy of bombing runs,” a TASS report at the time said.

The planes can carry a variety of munitions, including air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles as well as guided and unguided bombs.

Russia state media did not say what kind of munition fell on Belgorod late Thursday.

Moscow’s Su-34 fleet has seen significant losses since the war began, with 10% or more destroyed by some estimates. The Netherlands-based open source intelligence website Oryx says it has visual evidence of 19 of the planes lost in both combat and non-combat instances.

‘Odd’ circumstances, analyst says

Peter Layton, a visiting fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and former Royal Australian Air Force officer, said a pilot may jettison bombs when their aircraft loses power, or in the case of an Su-34, losing power in one of its two engines.

But he termed Thursday’s Belgorod incident “odd” for several reasons.

Firstly, the munition exploded. In an emergency, ordnance would normally be released in a “safe” mode so it wouldn’t detonate, unless “the bomb’s explosive filing is very sensitive to shock.”

Secondly, a pilot would normally jettison a bomb in unpopulated areas.

“Where the bomb hit; the town center, not in the countryside, almost suggests accuracy,” Layton said.

Thirdly, if there were a problem, a warplane would be expected to jettison all munitions, not just one. “Maybe they were but only one exploded,” Layton said.

The Belgorod region has been the scene of several explosions and bombings since Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February 2022.

Earlier this week, a village in the region, on the border with Ukraine, was struck by Kyiv’s forces, Gladkov claimed in a Telegram post.

Local media reported two drones dropped small bombs at the local thermal power plants, citing an anonymous source.

Ukraine would not confirm its involvement in that incident.

“We will not confirm or deny [Ukraine’s involvement],” a representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Andrii Yusov, said in comments broadcast on Ukrainian national television on Monday.

“I think that Russians should get used to the fact that while they are waging an unjust war of aggression, there are no safe places on their territory.”

“The war has already come to the home of every Russo-fascist and every subject of the Russian regime,” he added.

This story has been updated to correct the size of the bomb crater in Bolgorod, according to Russian officials.

This doesn't sound accidental to me.

[Ralin]

Man. Which is worse, accidentally bombing your own city or admitting that the Ukranians are successfully bombing your cities?

[Zaune]

Unless the pilot was either a spectacularly poor navigator or had a grudge against someone living in one of those apartment blocks, I think the most likely explanation is that this was a result of one part bad luck and one part bad decisions: The pilot jettisoned his ordinance the moment the alarms started going off instead of trying to make a dash for open country first (which while not optimal would be less deadly than the whole plane going down in a built-up area, granted), but one bomb must have had a faulty fuse and detonated on impact even if it shouldn't have been armed.

EDIT: I am choosing to assume that it really was an "own goal", by the way, because if the Ukrainian Air Force was dropping bombs in residential neighbourhoods in Russian cities they'd be shouting it from the rooftops to give their conscripts some motivation not to frag their officers and see if the other side wants to buy some slightly used Kalashnikovs.

[bilateralrope]

Man. Which is worse, accidentally bombing your own city or admitting that the Ukranians are successfully bombing your cities?

A worse option is that it was an intentional bombing by a Russian pilot.

[LadyTevar]

Man. Which is worse, accidentally bombing your own city or admitting that the Ukranians are successfully bombing your cities?

A worse option is that it was an intentional bombing by a Russian pilot.

I've been leaning towards "Pilot thought he was in Ukraine" and dropped the bomb.

[LaCroix]

According to latest infos - he was supposed to use gliding bombs, which would be dropped over Belgorod and then glide towards the border.
They found another one in the crater, which did not explode.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/belgorod ... -6480.html

And it didn't have any wing sets on it...
Unless you think the wing kit was blown off the otherwise completely unharmed second bomb, it leaves a couple possible scenarios


The pilot completely misunderstood his assignment and performed the wrong mission, instead of doing a conventional bombing.
The pilot managed to accidentally drop munitions over Belgorod, either through incompetence or being drunk. (It's not as if these things would fall on a hair trigger if you accidentally briefly touch a button, there are safeties and stuff)
The ground crew mounted the wrong munition, or forgot to mount the wing kit, or was not feeling like doing the extra work to mount the kit, and nobody realized (or bothered to check)
The plane was so badly maintained that the bombs simply fell off.

For the russian armed forces, either (or all above at the same time) are equally likely, these days.

[LadyTevar]

According to latest infos - he was supposed to use gliding bombs, which would be dropped over Belgorod and then glide towards the border.
They found another one in the crater, which did not explode.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/belgorod ... -6480.html

And it didn't have any wing sets on it...
Unless you think the wing kit was blown off the otherwise completely unharmed second bomb, it leaves a couple possible scenarios


The pilot completely misunderstood his assignment and performed the wrong mission, instead of doing a conventional bombing.
The pilot managed to accidentally drop munitions over Belgorod, either through incompetence or being drunk. (It's not as if these things would fall on a hair trigger if you accidentally briefly touch a button, there are safeties and stuff)
The ground crew mounted the wrong munition, or forgot to mount the wing kit, or was not feeling like doing the extra work to mount the kit, and nobody realized (or bothered to check)
The plane was so badly maintained that the bombs simply fell off.

For the russian armed forces, either (or all above at the same time) are equally likely, these days.

Another option -- The ground crew didn't have the parts to make it a gliding bomb, and thought someone informed the pilot of the change.

Hell, the Russian Army's doing a better job of screwing itself over than if there were actual saboteurs sneaking in and switching parts.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah the Russian army is (again) showing why pretty much every country in the world switch to merit based officer corps from a one that was based on how well you were connected to the leader. While I suspect that there is officers who are competent at their job there's enough people in key positions who are utterly incompetent and corrupt that whole thing is worse then a sum of its parts.

Oh and the first time Russia showed how bad officer corp build on how well the people in were connected to the leader was back in the Russo-Japanese war (that was the enforced in World War I)

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Well, Russians were digging in Southern Ukraine and apparently contracted Anthrax...

... this is going to be problematic given Putin's rhetoric so far.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Yeah the Russian army is (again) showing why pretty much every country in the world switch to merit based officer corps from a one that was based on how well you were connected to the leader. While I suspect that there is officers who are competent at their job there's enough people in key positions who are utterly incompetent and corrupt that whole thing is worse then a sum of its parts.

Oh and the first time Russia showed how bad officer corp build on how well the people in were connected to the leader was back in the Russo-Japanese war (that was the enforced in World War I)

Case in point:
Russian army commander arrested for ‘selling tank engines’

A Russian army officer has been arrested for allegedly stealing the engines out of T-90 battle tanks.

The Kommersant newspaper reported that Colonel Alexander Denisov is accused of stealing seven V-92S2 engines worth 20.5 million roubles (around £200,000) between November 2021 and April 2022.

Col Denisov, who is in charge of technical support for tanks in the Southern Military District, was arrested last month near Rostov in southern Russia and was charged with “stealing parts intended to be installed on tanks”.

Corruption plagues Russia, especially in its military, and has been blamed for hindering the Russian army since it launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russian soldiers have been sent into battle with rusty weapons and broken radios. Tanks have regularly run out of fuel and broken down.

Western analysts have estimated that Russia has lost nearly 2,000 tanks in the 14 months of the war and the Foreign Office has said that the Russian army has had to use previously mothballed T-62 tanks, produced before 1975, as battlefield replacements.

Since they entered service in the early 1990s, T-90 tanks have become the backbone of Russia’s armoured divisions. They were designed in the Soviet Union to be simple, light and fast and are now mainly powered by the 12-cylinder V-92S2 engine which is produced at the Chelyabinsk tractor factory, close to the Ural Mountains.

Each engine weighs roughly one tonne and can generate 1,000 horsepower. When it was introduced in 2000, the V-92S2 engine was considered the best and most powerful tank engine in the Russian army.

Prosecutors at the Rostov military garrison court in southern Russia said that Col Denisov had sold the engines on the black market. In 2019, two other Russian army officers were convicted of a similar theft.

Col Denisov has pleaded not guilty.

[madd0c0t0r2]

What on earth do you do with 7 one-to-one V12 engines?

[bilateralrope]

My guess is sell them to 7 different people. Though that still leaves the question of what a single one of them would be useful for.