UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[KraytKing]

It is, they want them for their spring offensive. Denying Russia air superiority is a game changer.

I do not think you are right, unless you are talking about spring 2024. Unlike the Soviet jets that ex Pact states have been sending, there is a substantial lead time for F-16 or any other Western jet. Huge amounts of training needs to be done--not just pilots, but also ground crew. Tools and parts for repair, maintenance, and sustainment need to be moved into the country. Ukraine has no experience with ANY of it. Estimates are usually that training a significant Ukrainian force for the new equipment would take about 1.5 years.

Which doesn't make it a pointless donation. If they had started moving along that path when the war started, they would be ready by fall or winter this year. It gives Russia a time limit, or at least the start of one. Shoigu, Gerasimov, and Putin would have a 1.5 year countdown clock, because they know that the war will never be easier than when Ukraine doesn't have enough planes. And if they fail to meet objectives in time, it might finally convince them to throw in the towel and give up a lost war.

Also, Ukraine is already doing a great job of denying air superiority to Russia. F-16 or other Western platforms would be used to establish local and temporary Ukrainian air superiority. Which Ukraine is ALSO doing on occasion, but they lose planes every time they do and become less capable.

What's even funnier the "allow enemy to overextend and then crush their flanks" as a tactic is so old that it's probably as old as warfare itself, yet Russia seems to walked straight into it. This one the few tactics that favor a side with fewer numbers too since if done right the force those flanks got crushed will end up with cut supply lines thus their size becomes a liability rather then strength.

EDIT:It wouldn't surprise me at all if the leaders of the Wagner force would be recalled to Moscow just before the Ukrainian noose closes totally and thus don't share the faith of their men.

Yeah, this isn't really that big. I guess you could call this an overextension with an associated flanking attack, but the salient really isn't that bad. Currently, in fact, it is still Ukraine that has a salient in the center. There shouldn't be much danger for Wagner being encircled, it isn't like Stalingrad where the line extended for HUNDREDS of miles, unless there is something else going on. Just because it took nine years for Bakhmut to fall doesn't mean withdrawing is going to take long at all--according to Google Maps, just WALKING from Bakhmut all the way back to Soledar is only a two hour trip. Shows how little progress has been made, but also means that a motorized or even footmobile force can easily escape Ukrainian pincers which are currently only advancing a mile or less per day.

Unless, of course, Putin forces Prigozhin to fight to the death to hold the city in the name of Russian honor. That or another thunder run like Kharkiv is really the only way you see a major encirclement. So far, the only units I've seen recorded in fighting on the flanks of Bakhmut are the Ukrainian-generated assault units--they seem to be holding their NATO brigades in reserve. Committing them to try and encircle Wagner would probably be a waste--Bakhmut will most likely be back in Ukrainian hands inside a month with just the work of the 3rd Assault and that other formation whose designation escapes me.


I wonder what's happening in Belgorod. I hope it wasn't actually a Ukrainian assault brigade, especially a NATO-trained one. I expect that being seen enabling a direct attack on Russian soil would give reservation to a lot of potential arms suppliers, and it also feeds the Russian propaganda narrative that it is fighting a defensive war against all of NATO and probably boost support on the home front. That said, it does so far legitimately seem to be anti-Putin Russians, though that's the kindest that can be said about their political leanings.

Excellent move, strategically, if it was Russian volunteers. Those guys are probably a liability in the long run, so it's kinda best to let them take the hardest fighting and the heaviest casualties. Like Azov. Russia might have decided it doesn't face risk of invasion and focused its troops in Ukraine while ignoring their own border--the ease of the breakthrough might suggest this. A quick reminder that yes, Ukraine can and will cross that line might get them to draw troops away from wherever the real offensive is coming. It also really damages Russian morale. The men on the front are going to wonder how their commanders missed such a weakness, the civilians back home are going to be reminded that the war isn't just a curiosity, and obviously it should build support for Putin's opposition.

Regarding Biden's dealing with Russia. Russia needs an off ramp or it will become like North Korea. People speaking of Sun Tzu, here is one of his actual lessons, chapter 7:36: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard." You can't push but so hard, unless you do it gradually. If you want Russia to be back on the global market, keeping German industry alive, then you don't push them into a corner on day one. You've gotta play a little reserved, or Putin will never be kicked out because he'll be proven right, that NATO is attacking Russians.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It is, they want them for their spring offensive. Denying Russia air superiority is a game changer.

I do not think you are right, unless you are talking about spring 2024. Unlike the Soviet jets that ex Pact states have been sending, there is a substantial lead time for F-16 or any other Western jet. Huge amounts of training needs to be done--not just pilots, but also ground crew. Tools and parts for repair, maintenance, and sustainment need to be moved into the country. Ukraine has no experience with ANY of it. Estimates are usually that training a significant Ukrainian force for the new equipment would take about 1.5 years.

Which doesn't make it a pointless donation. If they had started moving along that path when the war started, they would be ready by fall or winter this year. It gives Russia a time limit, or at least the start of one. Shoigu, Gerasimov, and Putin would have a 1.5 year countdown clock, because they know that the war will never be easier than when Ukraine doesn't have enough planes. And if they fail to meet objectives in time, it might finally convince them to throw in the towel and give up a lost war.

Also, Ukraine is already doing a great job of denying air superiority to Russia. F-16 or other Western platforms would be used to establish local and temporary Ukrainian air superiority. Which Ukraine is ALSO doing on occasion, but they lose planes every time they do and become less capable.

What's even funnier the "allow enemy to overextend and then crush their flanks" as a tactic is so old that it's probably as old as warfare itself, yet Russia seems to walked straight into it. This one the few tactics that favor a side with fewer numbers too since if done right the force those flanks got crushed will end up with cut supply lines thus their size becomes a liability rather then strength.

EDIT:It wouldn't surprise me at all if the leaders of the Wagner force would be recalled to Moscow just before the Ukrainian noose closes totally and thus don't share the faith of their men.

Yeah, this isn't really that big. I guess you could call this an overextension with an associated flanking attack, but the salient really isn't that bad. Currently, in fact, it is still Ukraine that has a salient in the center. There shouldn't be much danger for Wagner being encircled, it isn't like Stalingrad where the line extended for HUNDREDS of miles, unless there is something else going on. Just because it took nine years for Bakhmut to fall doesn't mean withdrawing is going to take long at all--according to Google Maps, just WALKING from Bakhmut all the way back to Soledar is only a two hour trip. Shows how little progress has been made, but also means that a motorized or even footmobile force can easily escape Ukrainian pincers which are currently only advancing a mile or less per day.

Unless, of course, Putin forces Prigozhin to fight to the death to hold the city in the name of Russian honor. That or another thunder run like Kharkiv is really the only way you see a major encirclement. So far, the only units I've seen recorded in fighting on the flanks of Bakhmut are the Ukrainian-generated assault units--they seem to be holding their NATO brigades in reserve. Committing them to try and encircle Wagner would probably be a waste--Bakhmut will most likely be back in Ukrainian hands inside a month with just the work of the 3rd Assault and that other formation whose designation escapes me.


I wonder what's happening in Belgorod. I hope it wasn't actually a Ukrainian assault brigade, especially a NATO-trained one. I expect that being seen enabling a direct attack on Russian soil would give reservation to a lot of potential arms suppliers, and it also feeds the Russian propaganda narrative that it is fighting a defensive war against all of NATO and probably boost support on the home front. That said, it does so far legitimately seem to be anti-Putin Russians, though that's the kindest that can be said about their political leanings.

Excellent move, strategically, if it was Russian volunteers. Those guys are probably a liability in the long run, so it's kinda best to let them take the hardest fighting and the heaviest casualties. Like Azov. Russia might have decided it doesn't face risk of invasion and focused its troops in Ukraine while ignoring their own border--the ease of the breakthrough might suggest this. A quick reminder that yes, Ukraine can and will cross that line might get them to draw troops away from wherever the real offensive is coming. It also really damages Russian morale. The men on the front are going to wonder how their commanders missed such a weakness, the civilians back home are going to be reminded that the war isn't just a curiosity, and obviously it should build support for Putin's opposition.

Regarding Biden's dealing with Russia. Russia needs an off ramp or it will become like North Korea. People speaking of Sun Tzu, here is one of his actual lessons, chapter 7:36: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard." You can't push but so hard, unless you do it gradually. If you want Russia to be back on the global market, keeping German industry alive, then you don't push them into a corner on day one. You've gotta play a little reserved, or Putin will never be kicked out because he'll be proven right, that NATO is attacking Russians.

Yeah, looking into it the jets are a part of a long term strategy, even though the fighters themselves are available from other NATO countries, Ukraine isn't ready to use them. Quite a few NATO countries are willing to train the requisite pilots and presumably the logistics side as well.

Head of Russian private army Wagner says more than 20,000 of his troops died in Bakhmut battle

YIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private army Wagner says his force lost more than 20,000 men in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, with about half of those who died in the eastern Ukrainian city being Russian convicts recruited to fight in the 15-month-old war.

The figure stood in stark contrast to the widely disputed claims from Moscow that just over 6,000 of its troops were killed throughout the war as of January. By comparison, official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 Afghanistan war were 15,000.

Ukraine hasn’t said how many of its soldiers have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Analysts believe the nine-month fight for Bakhmut alone has killed tens of thousands of soldiers, among them Russian convicts who reportedly received little training before being sent to the front.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin also said Russia’s invasion goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine has backfired because Kyiv’s military has become stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its Western allies.

In an interview published late Tuesday with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Kremlin political strategist, Prigozhin added that Russian forces had killed civilians — something Moscow has repeatedly and vehemently denied.

Prigozhin, a wealthy businessman with longtime links to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is known for his bluster — often spiced with obscenities — and has previously made unverifiable claims, some of which he later backtracked on.

Earlier this month, his media team published a video of him shouting, swearing and pointing at about 30 uniformed bodies on the ground, saying they were Wagner fighters who died in a single day. He claimed the Russian Defense Ministry had starved his men of ammunition, and he threatened to give up the fight for Bakhmut.

Prigozhin said in Tuesday's interview that it was possible Kyiv’s anticipated counteroffensive in coming weeks, given continued Western support, might push Russian forces out of southern and eastern Ukraine as well as annexed Crimea.

“A pessimistic scenario: the Ukrainians are given missiles, they prepare troops, of course they will continue their offensive, try to counterattack," he said. "They will attack Crimea, they will try to blow up the Crimean bridge (to the Russian mainland), cut off (our) supply lines. Therefore we need to prepare for a hard war.”

Prigozhin’s interview, posted in a Telegram channel that has only 50,000 followers, wasn’t picked up by Russia’s largest state-run or pro-Kremlin media and is unlikely to be widely seen. Nor did it appear to get any mentions among military bloggers, whose popular Telegram pages are important sources of information about the war to many Russians.

The Ukrainian General Staff said Wednesday that “heavy fighting” was continuing inside Bakhmut, days after Russia said that it had completely captured the devastated city. Bakhmut lies in Donetsk province, one of four provinces Russia illegally annexed last fall and only partially controls.

The head of Ukraine’s ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Kyiv’s forces “are continuing their defensive operation” in Bakhmut, and had achieved unspecified “successes” on the city’s outskirts. He gave no further details.

A Ukrainian commander in Bakhmut told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the Ukrainians had a plan to push the Russians out of all occupied territory.

“But now we don’t need to fight in Bakhmut, we need to surround it from flanks and block it,” Yevhen Mezhevikin said. "Then we should ‘sweep’ it. This is more appropriate, and that’s what we are doing now.”

Elsewhere, Russian forces shot down “a large number” of drones in Russia’s southern Belgorod region, a local official said Wednesday, a day after Moscow announced that its forces crushed a cross-border raid in the area from Ukraine.

The drones were intercepted overnight, Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said in a Telegram post, and another one was shot down Wednesday just outside the local capital, also called Belgorod. He said that no one had been hurt, but there was unspecified damage to property.

Ukrainian officials made no immediate comment.

Gladkov said Tuesday he had “questions for (Russia’s) Defense Ministry” following the attack that reportedly sowed alarm among locals and embarrassed the Kremlin.

During a Q&A session with residents on social media, Gladkov agreed with a participant who said that the Russian military’s actions in Belgorod “raised some questions.”

In Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu vowed to respond “promptly and extremely harshly” to such attacks.

On Tuesday, Russia said it had beaten back the cross-border raid, one of the most serious of its kind in the war. The Defense Ministry said more than 70 attackers were killed in the battle, which lasted around 24 hours. It made no mention of any Russian casualties.

Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that local troops, airstrikes and artillery routed the attackers.

Twelve civilians were wounded in the attack, officials said, and an older woman died during an evacuation.

Details of the incident in the rural region, about 80 kilometers (45 miles) north of the city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine and far from the front lines of the almost 15-month war, are unclear.

Moscow blamed the incursion that began Monday on Ukrainian military saboteurs. Kyiv described it as an uprising against the Kremlin by Russian partisans. It was impossible to reconcile the two versions, to say with certainty who was behind the attack or to ascertain its aims.

The region is a Russian military hub holding fuel and ammunition depots. Moscow officials declined to say how many attackers were involved or comment on why it took so long to put down the assault.

The Belgorod region, like the neighboring Bryansk region and other border areas, has witnessed sporadic spillover from the war, which Russia started by invading Ukraine in February 2022.

At least three civilians died and 18 others were wounded in Ukraine on Tuesday and overnight, the Ukrainian presidential office reported Wednesday, including in the southern Kherson region, where two elderly people died in airstrikes.

[LadyTevar]

Well... it's not Ukrainians raiding Belgorod

Russian Paramilitary Group Vows More Incursions

The head of the Russian paramilitary group that said it was behind a cross-border raid into Russia from Ukraine has vowed more such incursions.

"I think you will see us again on that side," said Denis Kapustin, who leads the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK).

Russia said it had repelled the raid, killing more than 70 saboteurs. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu promised a "harsh response" to any future incursions.

Ukraine denies involvement in the raid.

The RDK along with the Liberty of Russia Legion (LSR) claimed Monday's raid into Belgorod region.

Speaking on Wednesday to reporters on the Ukrainian side of the border, Mr Kapustin, whose nom de guerre is White Rex, said: "We're satisfied with the result [of the raid]."

He said his group had managed to seize "some weapons", including an armoured personnel carrier, and take prisoners during the operation - before leaving Russian territory after 24 hours.

He said two RBK fighters were injured, denying claims by the Russian military about heavy casualties inflicted on the saboteurs.

Separately, the LSR said two of its fighters had been killed and 10 injured.

The casualty claims by the warring sides have not been independently verified.

At the news briefing Mr Kapustin denied reports that his fighters were using weapons provided by Western allies to Ukraine to help defend itself against Russia's full-scale invasion launched in February 2022.

Russia describes the RDK and LSR as Ukrainian militants - but Kyiv says they come from two anti-Kremlin paramilitaries.

Both groups say they want to dismantle Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime, and have in the past been described as part of an international legion involved in Ukraine's territorial defence.

Mr Kapustin said that Ukraine only provided support to the RDK with medical supplies, petrol and food.

There's more in the article, including the info that Mr. Kapustin, and probably his followers, are wanting a 'mono-ethnic Russian state', and all but calling him a neo-Nazi.
Still means he's a good disposable asset that Ukraine can point at Russian targets and if he dies there's no big loss.
the problem will come if he keeps winning and becomes another Prigozhin.

[Ralin]

It sounds satisfying to say that using neo-Nazis as disposable troops to make things harder for Putin is a win/win whether they live or die. But that's ignoring what happens if any of the places they raid have any Asians or Muslim-looking or whatever people around at the time.

[Gandalf]

Yeah, and depending on how they define ethnically Russian, it's probably also bad for Ukrainians in their midst.

[Zaune]

The UKrainian military seem to have handled this issue successfully with the Azov Battalion, so presumably the same methods will work for these guys. If not... Well, there are ways of making sure they lay down their lives for the cause.

[LadyTevar]

Ok... we called it. Prigozhin is pulling out before he's surrounded.

Wagner Transfers Bakhmut to Russian Military

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has announced that its forces have started withdrawing from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Yevgeny Prigozhin has vowed to transfer control of the city to the Russian army by 1 June, but Kyiv says it still controls pockets of the city.
He said his forces were ready to return if the Russian regular army proved unable to manage the situation.

The battle for the city has been the longest and bloodiest of the war.
Wagner mercenaries have led the fighting there for the Russian side, and Mr Prigozhin this week said that 20,000 of its fighters had died in Bakhmut.
"We are withdrawing units from Bakhmut today," Mr Prigozhin said in a video released on Telegram from the destroyed city.

BBC Verify has geolocated the video to an area near a pharmacy in the east of Bakhmut.

Mr Prigozhin - who announced the capture of the city on Saturday - is seen telling his men to leave ammunition for the Russian army. He adds that some Wagner fighters will stay behind to assist Russian troops.
"The moment when the military are in a tough situation, they will stand up," he says, before warning two fighters to not "bully the military".
The Wagner boss has repeatedly targeted top Russian military officials, criticising them publicly for not supporting his troops. Last month, he even threatened to pull his troops out of the city if they were not provided with much-needed ammunition.

Despite Wagner's claims to be handing over Bakhmut, Ukraine has not conceded that the city has fallen.
Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister, Hanna Maliar, said on Thursday that its forces still control part of the Litak district in the southwest of the city.
"The enemy has replaced Wagner units in the suburbs with regular army troops. Inside the town proper, Wagner forces are still present," she posted on Telegram.

Analysts say Bakhmut is of little strategic value to Moscow, but its capture would be a symbolic victory for Russia after the longest battle of the war in Ukraine so far.
Wagner mercenaries have concentrated their efforts on the city for months and their relentless, costly tactic of sending in waves of men seems to have gradually eroded Kyiv's resistance.
Mr Prigozhin has emerged as a key player in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022, in charge of the private army of mercenaries.
He recruited thousands of convicted criminals from jail for his group - no matter how grave their crimes - as long as they agreed to fight for Wagner in Ukraine.
Around half of the 20,000 Wagner fighters to have died in Bakhmut were convicts, Mr Prigozhin said this week.

Earlier this month, the US said it believed more than 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in the battle for Bakhmut and another 80,000 wounded. The BBC is unable to independently verify the figures.
Ukraine has not released figures on its casualties in Bakhmut, but has also sustained heavy losses.

The capture of Bakhmut would bring Russia slightly closer to its goal of controlling the whole of Donetsk region, one of four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine annexed by Russia last September following referendums widely condemned outside Russia as a sham.
However, when Russia fought fiercely to claim the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last summer, Ukraine soon reclaimed swathes of territory elsewhere.

There were about 70,000 people living in Bakhmut before the invasion, but only a few thousand remain in the devastated city, once best known for its salt and gypsum mines and huge winery.

[KraytKing]

What a disaster. First started fighting for the city nine years ago, transitioned to high intensity fighting nine and a half months ago. And a week after capturing it, they have to withdraw. And for what?

There isn't anything else coming. There are no more secret weapons coming to help out the Russians, no more reserves of skilled manpower. And this winter, they LOST small amounts of territory during their offensives, took immense losses, and are now losing the only real gain they've made in months. The best success the Russian military has had since last summer was withdrawing from Kherson in an orderly fashion, and the commander responsible has been sacked.

I was pretty pessimistic about Ukrainian outlook after the major Russian manpower increase in the autumn and winter, but fortunately it looks like I was wrong. The performance during the winter actions shows that the Russians were not able to substantially train their new recruits. That manpower boost has been largely ineffective at even regaining the level of capability mismatch that was present in February 2022, which itself was not sufficient to actually win the war. Equipment continues to be a struggle. Performance was abysmal in their assaults, and they knew it would be: their attempt was so conservative, it took weeks to even realize that we had seen the winter offensive already. Aircraft still are being kept close to the chest.

And so far, the Ukraine-generated assault brigades have been able to break through what should be the most difficult part of the line--the only active Russian offensive sector. This is two, maybe three, of what are potentially the WORST of the twelve new assault brigades, in training and equipment, and they are very effective. The partial mobilization was a stopgap measure, nothing more. If they're going to maintain even what they currently own in Ukraine, Russia is going to need to repeat that level of recruitment probably every four to six months, and use brute application of manpower to just hold on. And even if that is politically possible, they're still coasting off of stockpiles for equipment--when that runs out, there isn't much they can do.

[Zaune]

Way to speedrun Gul Dukat's last story arc before he went off the deep end, Russia.

[Ralin]

The UKrainian military seem to have handled this issue successfully with the Azov Battalion, so presumably the same methods will work for these guys. If not... Well, there are ways of making sure they lay down their lives for the cause.

Hey, do you know who else thought they could handle the Nazis and deal with them later once the bigger threats were taken care of?

Just saying.

[Zaune]

I'm not honestly sure who you're referring to, because there haven't been that many wars where the local fash are participating on the defending side. Besides, as far as I know this "Russian Volunteer Corps" doesn't even have a political wing to speak of, and they probably have some Ukrainian special forces personnel embedded as "advisors" with orders to keep them in line by means necessary.

[Ralin]

I'm not honestly sure who you're referring to, because there haven't been that many wars where the local fash are participating on the defending side.

Various German conservatives back in the day saw the OG Nazis as dumb chucklefucks they could put up with for awhile as useful idiots while they focused on the communist menace and such. Didn't work out so well in practice.

[The_Saint]

"Allow the enemy to overextend and focus on one position, then crush their flanks" - isn't that pretty much exactly what the Red Army did to Paulus at Stalingrad?

More or less, also what Finns did in larger scale during the Winter War, though in that case it wasn't one but several points where soviets overextended and Finns were able to cut off and isolate the soviet forces.

EDIT:It's such an old tactic it's probably easier to find all the wars where it wasn't used then finding all the wars where it was used.

I'd be very surprised if it's not in "The Art of War" (Sun Tzu).

Chapter VI would be the relevant chapter.

You have to get a little creative with interpretation of the Art of War as it's intended for a 2,500 year old audience but the underlying principles are relevant whether describing bronze age infantry clashes or 21st century cyber warfare.

[Lord Revan]

It should be noted that "Art of War" is/was very light in actual specific tactics (apart from "like this examples") and more focused on basic tactics and strategies that work regardless of the local situation. That's why it remains relevant today since the core elements of warfare haven't changed as much as people think.

[LadyTevar]

I'd be very surprised if it's not in "The Art of War" (Sun Tzu).

Chapter VI would be the relevant chapter.

You have to get a little creative with interpretation of the Art of War as it's intended for a 2,500 year old audience but the underlying principles are relevant whether describing bronze age infantry clashes or 21st century cyber warfare.

As Revan says in his next post, Sun Tzu wrote in terms basic enough that it still applies to modern warfare. As you helpfully linked us to Chapter VI -- "Strike where the enemy is weak", "If the enemy is entrenched, strike at a place he must leave to defend", "He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain."

Ukraine has been modifying and learning. Russia is not.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I'd be very surprised if it's not in "The Art of War" (Sun Tzu).

Chapter VI would be the relevant chapter.

You have to get a little creative with interpretation of the Art of War as it's intended for a 2,500 year old audience but the underlying principles are relevant whether describing bronze age infantry clashes or 21st century cyber warfare.

As Revan says in his next post, Sun Tzu wrote in terms basic enough that it still applies to modern warfare. As you helpfully linked us to Chapter VI -- "Strike where the enemy is weak", "If the enemy is entrenched, strike at a place he must leave to defend", "He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain."

Ukraine has been modifying and learning. Russia is not.

Ukraine has pulled this off once already when it kicked the Russians out of the north of the country.

[LadyTevar]

This guy is seriously the new Baghdad Bob.
The interview was recorded and will be shown "Sunday with Laura Kuenssburg" at 9am on BBC One.

Russian Ambassador Warns Against Escalation in Ukraine

Russia has warned Western supplies of weapons to Ukraine risk escalating the war to levels not seen so far.

Andrei Kelin, Russia's ambassador to the UK, told the BBC his country had "enormous resources" and it was yet to "act very seriously".
His remarks come despite more than a year of fighting and widespread evidence of Russian war crimes.

In the interview with Laura Kuenssberg, he suggested he was offended when challenged about Russia's conduct.
Speaking exclusively to the BBC, Mr Kelin warned of a "new dimension" in the war.

Insisting Russia "hasn't just started yet to act very seriously", the ambassador said "Russia is 16 times bigger than Ukraine. We have enormous resources."
The length of the conflict, he said, "depends on the efforts in escalation of war that is being undertaken by Nato countries, especially by the UK".
He added: "Sooner or later, of course, this escalation may get a new dimension which we do not need and we do not want. We can make peace tomorrow."

The ambassador's comments came as one of Ukraine's most senior security officials, Oleksiy Danilov, told the BBC the country is ready to launch its long expected counter-offensive against Russian forces.
But Mr Kelin's claim that Russia has "enormous resources" available to fight clashes with multiple reports on the ground of its forces being poorly equipped and without proper training.

Those warnings have even come from the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has been heavily involved in the conflict.
He has been one of Vladimir Putin's staunchest supporters, but has been increasingly vocal and critical of the regime, suggesting in the last few days "we could lose Russia" if the war carried on without extra resources being provided.
Earlier this month he publicly scolded Putin's ministers in a post on social media, surrounded by dead bodies of his fighters. "Where is the... ammunition?", he said. "They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."

The denial of the situation on the ground by Mr Kelin was accompanied by his repetition of baseless claims about Russia's invasion, which he still insisted on calling a "special military operation".

Mr Kelin was speaking in his residence, underneath a chandelier, where the chairs are gilt and coffee served by staff with white gloves.

He tried to blame Ukraine for provoking the conflict. It's a familiar and untrue claim that has been used by Russian leaders for more than a year to try to justify its illegal invasion of Ukraine in the first place.
Like his ambassador, President Putin continues to claim a neo-Nazi regime was set up in Ukraine in 2014 and that it was even seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, which meant Russia had no choice but to invade.

And the ambassador denies reality when it comes to the behaviour of Russian troops on the ground during the conflict, too.
Confronted with evidence from an official United Nations report of widespread crimes, torture, rape and the forced deportation of children, he replied by claiming Ukrainian forces had committed crimes against civilians too.

There is evidence of a small number of human rights violations by Ukrainian forces. But the scale of Russian abuses is widespread, well-documented and beyond doubt.
When pressed that Russia was simply lying about what has happened, and the clear patterns of appalling abuse, the ambassador claimed in our interview to be offended.

And he had no other response to the latest missile attack in Dnipro other than to say "the problem is that the shooting is going on for nine years, and every day shooting is going on Luhansk, Donetsk and all of that", claiming that the western media was ignoring acts being carried out by Ukrainian forces.

The ambassador's comments that the war is not yet "serious" contradicts the experience of so many Ukrainians whose lives have been turned upside down by the war, and many Russians who are suffering.
But as Ukraine plans its counter-offensive, and Russia shows no sign of retreat, the war may indeed get more serious still.

[Rogue 9]

Makes me want to break out the old Baghdad Bob memes.

[LadyTevar]

Makes me want to break out the old Baghdad Bob memes.

Go ahead, update them with this guy's face and spread them where the Ruskies can see it!

More seriously, I find it hilarious a guy sitting in a place with gilt chairs and white-gloved servants is saying "We've got enormous resources!" when the Russian Paramilitary claims the Russian Border Patrol didn't even have weapons.

[Captain Seafort]

"Allow the enemy to overextend and focus on one position, then crush their flanks" - isn't that pretty much exactly what the Red Army did to Paulus at Stalingrad?

Ever heard of a place called Cannae?

[Eternal_Freedom]

"Allow the enemy to overextend and focus on one position, then crush their flanks" - isn't that pretty much exactly what the Red Army did to Paulus at Stalingrad?

Ever heard of a place called Cannae?

Yup. The reason I said Stalingrad was you'd think the Russian's would know how to avoid repeating Paulus' mistakes.

[Captain Seafort]

Yup. The reason I said Stalingrad was you'd think the Russian's would know how to avoid repeating Paulus' mistakes.

I'm not convinced the higher echelons of the Russian military are capable of learning from their own mistakes, let alone those made by their fathers' and grandfathers' enemies.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Fair point

[Lord Revan]

Yup. The reason I said Stalingrad was you'd think the Russian's would know how to avoid repeating Paulus' mistakes.

I'm not convinced the higher echelons of the Russian military are capable of learning from their own mistakes, let alone those made by their fathers' and grandfathers' enemies.

I'd say it's less that they're not capable of learning from their mistakes and more that they're not capable of accepting it was their mistake to begin with. I know that's essentially the same but difference there is that the first just mindlessly repeats the same mistake over and over, while the second is screaming at people with no power to fix things to fix things.

That's why I said in the previous thread (and possibly this one was well) that it'll take a while for Russia to recover from this no matter what happens as key flaws that caused the disastrous state of the Russia offensive actions are still present and will not be fixed as the people in charge either don't want to fix it or think it's not their fault.

[Solauren]

I think it's more then that.

Russia is trapped by Russia itself.

They're like the owner of a bankrupt business, that's throwing their own personal money into it, and convincing friends to do so as well.

Unfortunately, the company is in major debt, interest is accumulating faster then they can bring in money and beyond the companies value, and it has no assets of any value to leverage against.