Wagner Thread (Was Russian Coup Thread)

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Wagner Thread (Was Russian Coup Thread)

Post by LadyTevar »

This certainly needs its own thread. This is an update of the past 24 hrs from BBC News.

TL:DR -- Prigozhin has moved Wagner troops into Russia and taken the Russian Military Headquarters in Rostov, and is moving to a second city, Voronezh.
Putin went on the air and called this "Treason" and "A stab in the back of our Country"
Prigozhin claims it's "A March for Justice" and wants Military Leaders to meet with him or he will continue to march on Moscow. He claims his fight is with the "Clowns" leading the military, not Treason.

What is Prigozhin Doing in Russia?
This is a defining moment in Russia's 16-month full-scale war in Ukraine and potentially a challenge to Vladimir Putin's grip on power.

The Russian leader has accused Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin of treason, embarking on an armed rebellion and "a stab in the back of our country".
One of Russia's most important figures, Prigozhin says his aim is "not a military coup but a march for justice".

What is happening with the Wagner group?
For months Prigozhin has played a vital role in Russia's military campaign in Ukraine, recruiting thousands to his Wagner mercenary group, especially from Russian jails.
He has long been in an open feud with the military chiefs running the war, but that has now turned into a revolt.
Wagner forces have crossed from occupied eastern Ukraine into the big southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, and claim to have taken control of its military facilities.
President Putin says the situation is difficult but has promised to do everything to defend Russia.

Is this a coup?
All claims of a military coup are absurd, claims Prigozhin.

But what began as a no-holds-barred row over the military's failure to supply his mercenaries with sufficient kit and ammunition has now spilled over into a direct challenge to the two men in charge of prosecuting the war - Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov.

So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government. Prigozhin's "private military company" does not represent the military either, although he does claim to have widespread support.
But it is an attempt to topple Russia's top brass and therefore a challenge to the president's authority. And even though it was Russia's leader who allowed Prigozhin to develop his rival force, he clearly has no control of him any more.

The Kremlin is clearly taking this extremely seriously. The whole Moscow region has been put on an alert under a strict "counter-terrorist operation regime" and major events have been cancelled.
Similar measures are in place in the Voronezh region near Ukraine's north-eastern border.

"There are 25,000 of us," Prigozhin claimed. "Everyone who wants, join us." That is not enough to threaten the president but it is a challenge to the military leadership.
Moving his forces across the border into Rostov, he appears to have surrounded the military HQ from where the war is being run, and claims both the minister and chief of staff have fled.
He denies betraying Russia, and in an outspoken criticism of the president, says he is "deeply wrong".

What does Prigozhin want?
His idea of a "march for justice" is vague but his row with the military leadership has clearly escalated so fast he wants to force them out.

A video has emerged of Prigozhin telling a deputy defence minister and a general in Rostov on Friday that until the two main military figures come and talk to him, his mercenaries will block off the city and head for Moscow.
There are reports of a military helicopter being shot down and of a Wagner convoy heading north up the M4 motorway in the Voronezh region north of Rostov.

Prigozhin's quarrel is not with Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but with the "clowns" leading them, he argues. Several generals have appealed for him to calm down, but that seems too late.

What is the relationship between Putin and Prigozhin?
Prigozhin has long been a close ally of President Putin and has flourished under him, first as a wealthy businessman and then as a mercenary chief.

His Wagner fighters have died in big numbers in the bitter campaign to seize Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which lasted months and was never fully achieved. Prigozhin blamed the military top brass for shell shortages, with graphic videos and expletive-ridden social media rants exposing the failings and the fractures of Russia's military in Ukraine.

He never directly targeted his anger at the president, but his sarcastic references to "happy grandfather" were widely seen as indirect criticism. Last month he asked how Russia could win if it turned out that "this grandfather is a complete arsehole".

Earlier this month President Putin supported a move by Sergei Shoigu to have all mercenary groups in Ukraine sign defence ministry contracts by 1 July. Prigozhin has refused, seeing it as a challenge to his influence.
In a lengthy tirade on 23 June he told Russians that the whole justification for their war was a lie and merely an excuse for "a small group of scumbags" to promote themselves and deceive the public and president.

Events have moved very quickly since then.

Military sites in Rostov seized
Prigozhin accused the military of staging a deadly shelling on his men in Ukraine, but the military denied it and he failed to produce the kind of evidence he often does.

Late on Friday he announced his "march for justice" was under way. His force of 25,000 would be just a "tactical reserve" and the whole of the army and the whole country would be their strategic reserve.

Gen Sergei Surovikin, deputy commander of forces in Ukraine, appealed to him to step back and submit to President Putin's authority.

But by morning Prigozhin's men had reached Rostov: "We are inside [military] headquarters."
There are also reports of Wagner fighters seizing control of military facilities in Voronezh, further north towards Moscow.

A serious moment for Putin and Russia
This is not a direct challenge to Russia's war in Ukraine or the president's leadership. But it is sufficiently serious for the Russian leader to give a determined and uncompromising five-minute televised address.

Prigozhin has threatened not just to set up camp in Rostov, but to head towards Moscow if his military demands are not met.
Until now he has only battled the military leadership for increased weapons supplies, now he is taking on the leadership itself.

Prigozhin has substantial public support in Russia and, even if his challenge does fall apart, this is at the very least a moment of crisis for a military that has relied on his mercenaries in Ukraine.

But this is also a defining moment for the Putin leadership and a wake-up call for Russians. It is too soon to say how it will end.
Last edited by LadyTevar on 2023-08-24 08:00pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Change Thread Title
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Solauren »

Now, wouldn't it be ironic if Prigozhin ended up overthrowing Putin, ending the invasion, pulling back to traditional Russian borders (pre-Crimea), and handing Putin and co over to the Ukraine?
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

Well.... let's see.

As of this writing Wagner is moving through Tula, Russia, which the map tells me is about 180 km south of Moscow. About 2 hours drive according to the traffic info.

Meanwhile, the major highways into Moscow from the south have all been closed according to the traffic layer on Google Maps, but apparently Wagner is ignoring this. Video is starting to come out of Russia of lots of military activity just outside of Moscow: machinery digging trenches, sandbags being piled up, machine guns being placed...

This could get interesting about 2 hours from now. Around 6:30-7 pm Moscow time (about 10:30 am where I am). Really interesting, as in Chinese curse interesting.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by PainRack »

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408353/
high-ranking sources of UP in the Ukrainian special services; Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, in a comment to Russian state-controlled media outlet RIA Novosti; Secretariat of Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, in a comment to Kremlin-aligned news agency TASS

Quote from the source: "We already have information that Putin has left Moscow. He is being taken to Valdai."

Details: Ukrainian special services are also receiving information that there is panic in Moscow and preparations are being made to mine bridges in the Russian capital.
Russian media claims Putin plane left Moscow, as Russian Spokesperson claims Putin is working in Kremlin.


Translate: PUTIN HAS FLED MOSCOW.


Russian helicopters shot down as Russian Airforce supposedly bomb POL stations to slow down Wagner...



All this as Ukraine tries to gather all the Intel they can on troop movements.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Ralin »

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... kKg-Q&s=19
Putin's plane left for St Petersburg, and Peskov promptly denied Putin leaving Moscow, which in good old Russian tradition assured the population Putin has left Moscow.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

At this point, even if Putin hasn't left Moscow absolutely no one will believe he is in Moscow.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Ralin »

I keep seeing people making snide cracks about the loyalty of mercenaries. But to be fair to the Nazi-adjacent warlord who likes executing people via sledgehammer, Wagner is only doing this after being threatened with having their organization disbanded, their membership press-ganged into the regular military and their leader probably executed or whacked later this year.

I dunno, that seems like a fair ball to me.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Crazedwraith »

From BBC's live feed
Prigozhin and Belarus president agreed to 'de-escalate situation'
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has held talks with Wagner mercenary group head Yevgeny Prigozhin during which Prigozhin agreed to stop his troops and "de-escalate the situation", Rossiya 24 news channel said.

"Prigozhin accepted Lukashenko's proposal to stop the movement of Wagner in Russian territory and on further steps to de-escalate tension," Rossiya 24 said, quoting Lukashenko's press service.

It also said it was proving "possible to find an acceptable variant of de-escalating [the situation] with security guarantees for Wagner PMC's fighters".

Rossiya 24 said the conversation had been agreed with Putin.
Remarkably they seem to have negotiated it out. Which feels like Caesar being talked down after crossing the rubicon.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Ralin »

Well. I did not see that coming

Wonder how the hell they convinced Prigozhin Putin was good for the offer?
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by LadyTevar »

Ralin wrote: 2023-06-24 02:33pm Well. I did not see that coming

Wonder how the hell they convinced Prigozhin Putin was good for the offer?
How do we know he is? This is, after all, coming from Belarus's president, not from Putin himself.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Ralin »

LadyTevar wrote: 2023-06-24 02:39pm
Ralin wrote: 2023-06-24 02:33pm Well. I did not see that coming

Wonder how the hell they convinced Prigozhin Putin was good for the offer?
How do we know he is? This is, after all, coming from Belarus's president, not from Putin himself.
Doesn't seem like the President of Belarus has much reason to lie about this. But yes, it is 2023.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Crazedwraith »

Unless he's Walder Freying Prigozhin for Putin, "oh yes, everything's fine, it's all peaceful and organised and if you wouldn't mind just turning your back on my for one second..." *stab-stab-stab-stab*

Marching on your own capital is pretty bridge burning, so what assurances he can be given for backing down is indeed the real qustion.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Zaune »

Huh. I was honestly expecting to hear that the Ukrainians had offered them more money or something.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Well that was... disappointing and more than a little anticlimactic.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

I don't really understand any of this except in the most superficial way, but...

Did Prigozhin just cut a deal to get himself out of a back situation and throw his troops under the bus?
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Solauren »

Broomstick wrote: 2023-06-24 05:37pm I don't really understand any of this except in the most superficial way, but...

Did Prigozhin just cut a deal to get himself out of a back situation and throw his troops under the bus?
Maybe he SOLD the Wagner group to Russia? That way Russia still gets the troops they want, and Prigozhin can fuck off with a few hundred million.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Khaat »

Solauren wrote: 2023-06-24 05:45pm Maybe he SOLD the Wagner group to Russia? That way Russia still gets the troops they want, and Prigozhin can fuck off with a few hundred million.
That's the part I don't get: why didn't Putin already have garrotes around all of Prigozhin's money? It couldn't leave the country (except maybe through China?), and Putin has hooks in everything Russian already, neh? *YOINK!*
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Ralin »

Khaat wrote: 2023-06-24 06:08pmThat's the part I don't get: why didn't Putin already have garrotes around all of Prigozhin's money? It couldn't leave the country (except maybe through China?), and Putin has hooks in everything Russian already, neh? *YOINK!*
That's presumably part of why he didn't want to give up his private army
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by LadyTevar »

As of right now both Putin and Prigozhin have not been seen since Saturday.

Putin's plane dropped off the radar near Tver, northwest of Moscow. All sources are currently assuming Putin was on that plane. There's been no sighting of him since, and a Kremlin Spokesman stated there would not be any public addresses "in the near future".

Prigozhin was last seen getting into a car in Rostov on Saturday, amid cheering local residents. There's still a No-fly zone in the area, so the closest airports are roughly 400km away, in Volgograd or Sochi. While driving or taking a train into Belarus is possible, those would be slow-going, and he'd have to swing around Ukraine. No one seems to know what his plans were to reach Minsk.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by wautd »

The mental gymnastics of pro Russian propagandists and trolls that I've seen are a thing to behold

1. Prigozhin admits that the reasons for the Russian invasion are all lies
2. Wagner marches to Moscow, shoots down several attack helicopters down in the process
3. Putin calls him a traitor on national television
4. Lukashenko bails out Putin
5. Putin gives amnesty to Prigozhin
6. Something something underpants gnomes
...
7. "this made Putin stronger in the end" or "this was an act of war by NATO"

Are people that delusional or simply brain dead?
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by wautd »

Solauren wrote: 2023-06-24 05:45pm
Broomstick wrote: 2023-06-24 05:37pm I don't really understand any of this except in the most superficial way, but...

Did Prigozhin just cut a deal to get himself out of a back situation and throw his troops under the bus?
Maybe he SOLD the Wagner group to Russia? That way Russia still gets the troops they want, and Prigozhin can fuck off with a few hundred million.
I'm sure there would have been cleaner and easier ways to do that. Now both Putin and Prigozhin look weak after this little drama show
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Broomstick »

The ONLY thing I can think of, aside from WTF?, is that the was an elaborately staged drama to portray Oligarchs as greedy thieves who lied their way into a way and deceived [del]Dear Leader[/del] Putin, and poor, poor, Prigozhin had no choice but stage this "March for Justice" to expose the deception. Prigozhin still had to be "punished" for being so uppity, but by exile in Belarus rather than a trial for treason. His men - good soldiers "just following orders" - will be held blameless for this. Then Putin comes out a few days later to end the war started for false reasons and shove a few more people out of high windows.

Except I don't believe 5th dimensional Chess Masters.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Ralin »

Simplest explanation is that Putin stepped back, recognized that Wagner had legitimate security concerns and likely felt they had no other choice if they wanted to live and decided to go with the option that let him end the crisis quickly and salvage as much as possible.

No idea if that's true, obviously.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Sidewinder »

Larry Johnson, who claims to have worked for the CIA (I can't independently verify this), posted the following:
RUSSIA’S ACADEMY AWARD WINNING PERFORMANCE FOR BEST COUP, PRIGOZHIN SCORES BEST ACTOR
Larry Johnson, 24 June 2023

What if the Prigozhin “Coup” is Maskirovka? I want to explore that possibility. Earlier today (Saturday on the east coast of the U.S.) I was sketching out a piece with the catchy title, “PRIGOZHIN — PUTSCH OR PLOY?” Well, that swell idea was blown away like the Kakhovka Dam when the narrative about the Prigozhin plan to march on Moscow and personally strangle Russian Defense Minister Shoigu went full-on Nadia Comăneci — i.e., back flip. Prigozhin ordered “his” troops back to their bases, cut a deal with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to go into exile and will face no judicial punishment. WHAT????? No bloodshed? No miles of burning tanks? And no Mussolini neck tie for Vladimir Putin? What the hell?!!

Man, you could feel the disappointment and frustration emanating from the Washington establishment. The political equivalent of premature ejaculation. Last night (Friday) you could hear the popping of champagne corks and popcorn as media and intelligence officials huddled around computer screens awaiting images of a distraught Putin running naked away from the Kremlin. Biden and his team remind me of Wiley Coyote in terms of the despair they suffer as they watch their harebrained schemes to catch Putin crash and burn.

While I cannot firmly dismiss the possibility that Prigozhin attempted this coup on his own (or with the encouragement of an outside backer), I want to present the Maskirovka scenario.

Let us start with these facts:

1. The Wagner Group was established by Russian intelligence organizations and funded by the Russian Government. Many in the West mistakenly believe that Prigozhin has deep pockets and is paying Wagner’s bills and, despite having ZERO military experience, is the commander of the outfit. As the Russians say, NYET!

2. Russia is considered by the U.S. and the rest of NATO as a dictatorship. Prigozhin has been shooting his mouth off for months spouting threats against the Russian military and, indirectly, at Putin but has suffered no arrest or sanction. Does this mean Russia is not a dictatorship?

3. Prigozhin ostensibly launched the coup, according to his own words on Friday, because the Russian MOD hit an encampment of Wagner troops training for war with missiles, shells and rockets. But the alleged video of the incident showed no casualties. Today, Prigozhin backed away from that claim and now insists he was just protesting the MOD’s move to bring the Wagner Group into the Russian Army.

4. The Russian Government waited about 12 hours before sending police/military forces to the Wagner Group headquarters in St. Petersburg. Little sense of urgency.

5. Prigozhin reportedly ordered a column of Wagner troops to go from Rostov on Don to Moscow to dethrone Shoigu and maybe General Gerasimov. Take a look at the map. That is a distance of almost 1200 kilometers. How was that column of trucks and tanks supposed to refuel and cover that distance in less than 20 hours?

<Map omitted.>

How about this as an explanation? The entire coup narrative was generated to allow for the movement of Russian military forces to areas north and west of Voronezh without raising the alarm among NATO planners. Russia was moving forces to stop coup plotters as opposed to building up forces for a new axis of offense.

It appears that the roots of the narrative that Prigozhin was going to betray Russia starts in 2022. Someone with ties to Western intelligence had a relationship with Prigozhin and began sounding him out about collaborating with the West. Prigozhin let his Russian intel bosses know about the pitch and the Russians decided to build an op that would present Prigozhin as a disgruntled patriot, boiling in anger at the incompetence of Russian leaders. The Russians fed this by letting Prigozhin launch vicious verbal attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov and, if we are to believe the Jack Teixeira discord leaks, even passed intel on the locations of Russian troops to his intel handler.

Here is the interesting part of this hypothesis — who made the decision to launch Prigozhin? A credible argument can be made that the Prigozhin’s Western handlers decided that Friday was the day and ordered him into action. But I think this was stage managed in the Kremlin. Putin and his intel chiefs knew what the West was trying to foment in Russia and realized that Ukraine and NATO were reeling from their feckless counter offensive and its attendant massive losses in men and materiel. Why not use the coup attempt as a good cover story for the mass movement of troops all along the line between Moscow and Rostov on Don?

This is a way to move Russian troops to areas north of Belgorod without drawing the unwelcome attention of NATO ISR platforms. Move the troops closer to the border and then disperse them. Which means Russia found a way to reinforce troops on a new potential axis of attack that will create a nightmare for NATO planners.

Think of the coup as rabbit running across an open field. Hungry predators hiding in the forest may be tempted to expose themselves in an effort to snag a bunny. Did some of the reactions in Russia to news of the suspected coup help Russian counter intelligence identify people in positions of authority in Russia who, until now, quietly rooted for Ukraine? Maybe.

I also want to entertain a hilarious possibility. Did Prigozhin scam his western handlers out of millions of dollars? Yevgeny does have a criminal past and is known for sticky fingers. Did he draw on his criminal past and fleece the British or the Americans? Could be a terrific story.

Anyway, after less than 24 hours of drama, we are left with the mournful, but beautiful voice of Peggy Lee singing, Is That All There Is?
FYI, "Maskirovka" is a term for Russian military deception.
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Re: Is This A Russian Coup? Wagner in Russia

Post by Crazedwraith »

This Larry Johnson?

His entire wikipedia page is him spewing false allegations about Michelle Obama, John Kerry and British Intelligence. That and the tone of the article makes me very suspicious as to accuracy/honesty.
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