Wagner Thread (Was Russian Coup Thread)

[Ralin]

I saw someone compare it to an old school feudal conflict. Putin is the king. Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense are his vassals. The MoD has been escalating a conflict with Prigozhin for years and wants him dead or stripped of power. Prigozhin doesn't want a vassal war, so he appeals to the king to intervene. King Putin doesn't want to get involved for whatever reason, so Prigozhin forces the issue by marching on the capital. His goal was never to kill the king or take over, just to get Putin to, uh. Recognize his legitimate security concerns.

Honestly Wagner may be a pack of war criminals and psychopaths but I'm finding it hard to fault them here.

[Broomstick]

Yeah, regardless of whether Russia troops are moving to reposition or moving because of a coup the West will be paying attention.

1200 km in 20 hours is 60 kph (about 37 mph for the Americans) which is quite doable with modern military vehicles on good roads with no opposition.

That's just two points.

Also, I'm not at all convinced this guy is credible as either a source or analyst.

[Lord Revan]

Yeah, regardless of whether Russia troops are moving to reposition or moving because of a coup the West will be paying attention.

1200 km in 20 hours is 60 kph (about 37 mph for the Americans) which is quite doable with modern military vehicles on good roads with no opposition.

That's just two points.

Also, I'm not at all convinced this guy is credible as either a source or analyst.

Well I suppose he could credible in a sense he is what he claims, but still so stuck in the Cold War mind set that idea that Russia could be just incompetent and not hatching a masterful ploy is just unthinkable to him, thus hurting his credibility.

[Broomstick]

To my mind "former CIA employee" does not automatically translate into "expert on anything".

[Lord Revan]

To my mind "former CIA employee" does not automatically translate into "expert on anything".

Well could have been a janitor in Langley that would technically make him a "former CIA employee" that said you always have to take things with grain salt since even competent analysts are subject to their biases.

[Lord Revan]

However I suspect there's plenty of military analysts who are stuck in the Cold War mindset so they can't really admit that current Russia is but a shadow of what USSR was at their peak.

[bilateralrope]

Wagner mutiny: Prigozhin's soldiers rage while others cry conspiracy

15 hours ago

By Grigor Atanesian and Maria Korenyuk
BBC Global Disinformation Team

Yevgeny Prigozhin may have boasted he had the loyalty of all 25,000 members of his mercenary army, but it seems that may have shifted as quickly as the Wagner Group's rebellion petered out.

In online messages analysed by BBC Verify, Wagner troops and their relatives raged against Prigozhin's decision to halt his dramatic march on Moscow and withdraw from the captured city of Rostov. "The bald waste of space destroyed Wagner PMC with his own hands. And screwed everyone he could," fumed one online poster claiming to be a Wagner fighter on a Telegram channel with 200,000 followers.

"It's been another senseless revolt," they added. Telegram is the social media platform of choice for Wagner soldiers and pro-war circles in Russia, allowing often anonymous communication with thousands of followers at a time.

It was where Prigozhin chose to announce his so-called "March of Justice" against the Russian regime, but it has now become the place where many have turned against him.

Mark Krutov, a journalist with the RFE/RL outlet's Russian Service, has access to the Telegram group chats used by relatives of Wagner fighters. He shared some of their messages with the BBC.

"They were simply betrayed," one women wrote. "I trusted Prigozhin, but what he did is dishonourable."

"He shouldn't have done this. This is pure betrayal," agreed another user.

Prigozhin long enjoyed highly vocal support from a network of pro-Wagner influencers. For months, they have championed his actions and attacked his opponents in the Ministry of Defence - particularly his sworn enemy, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

But when the Wagner mutiny was developing, their reaction was surprisingly muted.

Two of the largest groups, Grey Zone and Reverse Side of the Medal - with almost 900,000 followers between them - did not rush to endorse his actions, instead aiming for the reasonably neutral middle ground of blaming antagonism by Mr Shoigu and his loyalists for the bloodshed.

Others found refuge in conspiracy theories.

Wagner PMC Briefs is a channel Prigozhin has confirmed as an official page of Wagner and is run by one of his troops. It noted - with eyebrows raised - that when Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced the mutiny, he didn't mention anyone by name. "[Putin] did not name "the mutineers and traitors," it said. "Perhaps it was to let Prigozhin restore justice and punish those guilty of real betrayal that resulted in the failure [of Russia's invasion of Ukraine]?"

The theory that Mr Putin and Prigozhin conspired to stage a coup attempt in order to "test the loyalty of the Russian elites" quickly gained traction on social media."Girls, I thought maybe it was all orchestrated to remove Shoigu, but through Prigozhin, so Putin wouldn't have to do it himself?" wrote a woman on the Wagner relatives' chat.

Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research in Kyiv, disagrees.

"If it was staged, what for? So everyone could see how weak Putin is?" he said. "What happened was a public humiliation of Putin. And Prigozhin? He partially lost his reputation: He used to demonstrate power, and then he simply retreated."But Prigozhin's last public comment on the day of the mutiny, filmed after he agreed to stand down, continues to fuel speculation online. "We've had an OK result today," he said. "Cheered everybody up."

I wonder how this will develop.

[Broomstick]

In online messages analysed by BBC Verify, Wagner troops and their relatives raged against Prigozhin's decision to halt his dramatic march on Moscow and withdraw from the captured city of Rostov. "The bald waste of space destroyed Wagner PMC with his own hands. And screwed everyone he could," fumed one online poster claiming to be a Wagner fighter on a Telegram channel with 200,000 followers.

"It's been another senseless revolt," they added.

Well, yeah you fucking moron - Prigozhin is a sadistic career criminal just out for himself and his own interests. You earn a D'OH! and a facepalm. Don't follow evil men.

[Gandalf]

Larry Johnson, who claims to have worked for the CIA (I can't independently verify this), posted the following:

Wow. That is a ridiculous article, and the rest of that website is... something.

However I suspect there's plenty of military analysts who are stuck in the Cold War mindset so they can't really admit that current Russia is but a shadow of what USSR was at their peak.

From what I understand, it's a generational thing. People who came up before Yeltsin came along see Russia through Cold War lenses. So every Russian move is insanely calculated, but executed by barely competent people, like in a Tom Clancy story. Younger ones see the newer Russia, where the Soviet period is an influential remnant in a quasi functional petrostate.

Unfortunately, a lot of news media commentary is dominated by the former.

[bilateralrope]

Vladimir Putin says Wagner mutiny leaders will be 'brought to justice'

1 day ago
By James Gregory & Sarah Rainsford, Eastern Europe correspondent
BBC News

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the leaders of last weekend's Wagner mutiny of wanting "to see Russia choked in bloody strife".

In a short speech full of vitriol, Mr Putin vowed to bring the organisers of the revolt "to justice".

But he called regular Wagner troops "patriots" who would be allowed to join the army, go to Belarus or return home.

He did not directly name Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who earlier denied trying to overthrow Mr Putin's regime.

Wagner is a private army of mercenaries that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine.

The short-lived rebellion, which saw Wagner fighters seize a major Russian city before heading north towards Moscow in a column of military vehicles, was a response to government plans to take direct control of Wagner, Prigozhin claimed in an 11-minute long audio statement published on Telegram on Monday.

In June, Russia said "volunteer formations" would be asked to sign Ministry of Defence contracts in a move widely seen as a threat to Prigozhin's grip on Wagner.

The mercenary chief said his rebellion was also a protest over mistakes made by defence officials during the war with Ukraine.

But he insisted that Wagner had acted always and only in Russia's interests.

These were Prigozhin's first public comments since agreeing a deal to halt the rebellion, which reportedly includes him going to Belarus with all criminal charges against him dropped - though Russian state media, citing officials, has reported he remains under investigation.

He said that he brought an end to the mutiny to stop "spilling the blood of Russian soldiers", adding that some Russian civilians were disappointed the march had stopped.

But he was at pains to stress that he had no intention of trying to topple Russia's elected authorities.

It was only audio so it is not clear where Prigozhin is now or what he does next.

In his own brief address to the Russian people, Mr Putin said organisers of the march on Moscow would be "brought to justice" and described his old ally Prigozhin as stabbing Russia in the back.

He used the speech as an attempt to reassert his authority, and squash the now common view that his response to the Wagner mutiny was weak. His tone in the short, recorded address was furious; his lip curling.

The president's message was that those who organised an insurrection had betrayed their country and people - and were doing the work of all of Russia's enemies by trying to drag it into bloodshed and division.

He accused the West of wanting Russians to "kill each other", but US President Joe Biden told a press conference on Monday the US and its allies had no involvement in Wagner's aborted rebellion.

Mr Putin argued that his own management of the crisis had averted disaster. But that's not what many Russians saw play out over the weekend and it's hard to think they'll be convinced by this performance.

He also said he would keep his promise to allow Wagner troops who did not "turn to fratricidal blood" to leave for Belarus.

"I thank those soldiers and commanders of the Wagner Group who made the only right decision - they did not turn to fratricidal bloodshed, they stopped at the last line," he said.

"Today, you have the opportunity to continue your service for Russia by signing a contract with the [Ministry of Defence] or other military and law enforcement structures, or to go back to your family and close ones.

"Those who want can leave for Belarus. The promise that I gave, will be fulfilled."

Mr Putin said "steps were taken to avoid a lot of bloodshed" at the very beginning of the mutiny, and that its organisers "realised their actions were criminal".

He praised the unity of Russian society and thanked the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who is said to have brokered the deal to end the mutiny, for his efforts to resolve the situation peacefully.

The president's talk of a country united behind him contrasts sharply with Saturday's images from the southern city of Rostov, where the Wagner group had taken control and locals applauded fighters in the streets, hugging them and posing for selfies.

That's probably why Mr Putin offered Wagner members a way out, suggesting they'd been duped and used.

Last week's rebellion followed months of growing tensions between Wagner and Russia's military leadership.

Infighting came to a head on Friday night when Wagner mercenaries crossed the border from their field camps in Ukraine and entered the southern city of Rostov-on-Don - where Russia's war is being directed from.

They then reportedly took over the regional military command while a column of military vehicles moved north towards Moscow.

Prigozhin claimed his "march of justice" revealed "serious problems with security all around the country".

He also mentioned the role Mr Lukashenko had played in brokering the arrangement to end the mutiny, saying the leader had offered Wagner a way to keep operating in a "legal jurisdiction".

The mercenary boss acknowledged his march had resulted in the deaths of some Russian troops when Wagner troops shot down attacking helicopters.

But he added that "not a single soldier was killed on the ground".

"We are sorry that we had to strike the aircraft, but they were striking us with bombs and missiles," he said.

So Prigozhin, the overall leader of this rebellion, is allowed to leave. But Putin is still going after the leadership of this rebellion. I wonder if he's fooling anyone.

[Broomstick]

I've put it down to Orwellian double-speak.

[Ralin]

I've put it down to Orwellian double-speak.

He probably feels like he has to do at least some lip service to this not being okay.

I'd be more concerned about the regular people (and members of the police and military) that publicly expressed support for the mutiny. Or were noticeably slow to respond.

[bilateralrope]

Any bets on how long until Putin arrests Prigozhin and tries to claim that letting him free was a necessary deception ?

[LadyTevar]

As of today, per the BBCNews, Lukashenko claims Prigozhin has arrived in Minsk. However, it seems there's no word yet from Prigozhin himself.

Belarus leader welcomes Wagner boss

The leader of Russia's 24-hour mutiny, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has arrived in Belarus, three days after his Wagner mercenary group's mutiny came to an end 200km (125 miles) south of Moscow.

"Yes, indeed, he's in Belarus today," leader Alexander Lukashenko announced, claiming credit in arranging his exile.

Mr Prigozhin's whereabouts had been a mystery since he was filmed driving off in southern Russia on Saturday night.

His private jet was tracked flying into the Belarus capital Minsk on Tuesday.

Mr Lukashenko said Wagner mercenaries had been offered an abandoned military base if they wanted to join their leader: "There is a fence, everything is available, erect your tents."

Under the deal that brought an end to the mutiny, Mr Prigozhin has been promised security and the Russian criminal case against Wagner has been dropped.

Moscow is preparing to transfer the mercenaries' heavy weapons into the regular military and the fighters have been told they can either sign regular army contracts, go home or head to Belarus.

There's more in the article about reactions to the news, including Lithuania who does NOT like the idea of Wagner being 'next door'.

[bilateralrope]

Mr Lukashenko said Wagner mercenaries had been offered an abandoned military base if they wanted to join their leader: "There is a fence, everything is available, erect your tents."

I wonder if there is any artillery aimed at it. Just in case.

My second thought is that it seems odd that the base doesn't have housing.

[Batman]

Maybe it doesn't have 'enough' housing. Military bases come in various sizes.

[LadyTevar]

Mr Lukashenko said Wagner mercenaries had been offered an abandoned military base if they wanted to join their leader: "There is a fence, everything is available, erect your tents."

I wonder if there is any artillery aimed at it. Just in case.

My second thought is that it seems odd that the base doesn't have housing.

Might have been taken down when the base was abandoned?

[Broomstick]

There's more in the article about reactions to the news, including Lithuania who does NOT like the idea of Wagner being 'next door'.

Poland isn't at all happy either - they are also next door.

[Lord Revan]

I doubt any nation near Belarus is happy about it (well with possibly exception of Russia) but Lithuania and Poland are ones we've heard so far,

[bilateralrope]

‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord

Andrew Roth
Sat 1 Jul 2023 13.41 BST

The Wagner mercenary group boss who marched on Moscow has had his internet outlets blocked and troll factory closed down

Suddenly, Yevgeny Prigozhin is a phantom. Is he in Belarus or St Petersburg? In unconfirmed footage that makes him look like a Bond villain, he struts across a rooftop, shadowed by a muscled bodyguard, takes a seat in a helicopter, and vanishes into the skies of St Petersburg.

For nearly a decade, Prigozhin has sown scandal in Russia, creating a troll factory empire, leading Russia’s interference into foreign elections and bankrolling the Wagner mercenary group that fought in Ukraine and has propped up dictators in Africa.

In last weekend’s mutiny, he also called for upheaval, leading an armed rebellion that many fear could turn to score-settling or even looting in Moscow, including the upmarket homes of Moscow’s wealthy Rublyovka district.

“This call to go get those thieves in Rublyovka was revolutionary,” said Konstantin Remchukov, editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, who saw Vladimir Putin last week at a closed-door meeting for top editors. “[The elite] truly fear Prigozhin as a possible alternative to Putin. There would be no guarantees, no protection, no rules to the game.”

Instead, it is Prigozhin’s empire that will now crumble, ending a decade of his schemes and tricks doing some of the Kremlin’s dirtiest work.

On Friday, Russia blocked the websites of the Ria Fan, Politics Today, Economy Today, Neva News and People’s News online media outlets, part of a constellation of online sites that pushed out fake news in support of Prigozhin’s agenda.

The St Petersburg-based outlet Rotunda also reported that Prigozhin’s Internet Research Agency, a troll factory where low-paid interns would try to sow anger and distrust by writing aggressive comments under news and social media posts, had also been closed down.

Prigozhin had for years denied that he was the founder of the organisation until earlier this year. “I’ve never just been the financier of the Internet Research Agency,” he said. “I invented it, I created it, I managed it for a long time. It was founded to protect the Russian information space from boorish aggressive propaganda of anti-Russian narrative from the west.”

In an extraordinary appearance, an editor from his Patriot media group defended the troll factory from its founding in 2009, saying that it “was strategically important to discredit the work of opposition journalists who were trying … to destroy our country”.

Many of Prigozhin’s tactics, from online social sabotage to recruiting convicts from prisons, have since been adopted by the Russian government. Numerous state corporations and even private businesspeople sponsor their own small mercenary groups now.

And his media presence, which was both grating and compelling, made him an overnight star as his conflict with the defence ministry heated up.

Long seen as plausibly deniable, he will now be simply ignored as the Russian government seeks to maintain his overseas mercenary empire and its influence in Africa while eliminating Prigozhin’s personal role.

“Until the war and Bakhmut, we would rarely write about Prigozhin – he was seen as an unclear character, not anti-government but best not to touch,” said a former editor at a Russian state news agency, citing contacts with colleagues. “Now it is as though he never existed.”

“[Editors] are saying: ‘Right, we’ve addressed [the mutiny] but now we are going to get back to normal, and Prigozhin will never be discussed, definitely not on TV.’”

Political insiders in Russia said the conflict could have been avoided if Putin had intervened sooner, recognising Prigozhin’s role in the war for Russia and seeking to satisfy his concerns.

“Putin could have sorted this a long time ago but he’s not sensitive with these things,” said one political insider who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He would have just needed to ask someone to say: ‘Please, go and meet with Prigozhin, call him in and say he’s amazing, we value him but please can he close his mouth because we don’t need this public fighting right now.’ But Prigozhin saw he could criticise the defence minister and get away with it, and then he raised and raised the temperature.”

For some wealthy Russians, Prigozhin is now synonymous with the chaos of a potential battle for power in Russia. The Kremlin and its supporters claim that the mutiny actually consolidated Putin’s power because it showed that without him there could be a civil war.

“When we saw the news on Saturday, we told our guards to just be ready to defend the place if needed,” one wealthy Rublyovka resident told the Observer. “Prigozhin is crazy – he is the worst and capable of anything. He always talks about Rublyovka and how much he hates it. He would probably come to us first.”

Prigozhin himself is supposedly in Belarus, although he has not been photographed there recently. But many have asked the question: how long can he survive?

“I’ve thought a few times about what I would write if he died,” said the former state news editor, when asked if they had prepared an obituary. “I can’t imagine that he will be alive for long.”

Looks like Putin has decided that he's not going to let Prigozhin just walk away.

[Broomstick]

I would not be surprised if he is already dead.

[The_Saint]

I would not be surprised if he is already dead.

I wouldn't have been surprised if a couple of FSB officers hadn't been handed a makarov and a shovel fairly early on other than the option that seems currently in favour is to find a multi-story building with balconies with low railings.

[LadyTevar]

Well, the BBC found signs that Wagner is in Belarus New "Tent-like Structures" have been built on that abandoned base

There's also a rumor that Wagner's contract to provide meals to the Russian Military was cancelled. Wonder who's providing food now?

[bilateralrope]

I would not be surprised if he is already dead.

Yes. That's the outcome everyone is expecting. So why did Prigozhin surrender ?

My first thought is that Putin threatened to nuke the Wagner forces.

[Ralin]

I would not be surprised if he is already dead.

Yes. That's the outcome everyone is expecting. So why did Prigozhin surrender ?

My first thought is that Putin threatened to nuke the Wagner forces.

Given how close they were that's pretty close to threatening to nuke Moscow. Kinda silly.

Like I said before, I don't think he surrendered so much as got what he wanted. He wasn't rebelling, he was pulling the military equivalent of a strike. As for why he thought he could get away with it, I mean. A lot harder to assassinate a guy surrounded by his own personal army than some journalist.

It also doesn't seem like the Russian state has much incentive to keep it a secret if he is dead