Wagner Thread (Was Russian Coup Thread)

[Lord Revan]

Finland is almost certainly not going to be next now; that's the entire point of joining NATO. That possibility was on the table before Finland applied for and got NATO membership.

Yeah in a sane world we should be out of the possible invasion targets, however I've seen recent headlines that imply not only Invasion of Finland is still on the table but it's something Putin is actively planning to execute (that's where I got the 2-5 years timetable). As I'm a Finn you can probably understand why I cannot really afford to be too careless about this.

After all there's the possibility (even if fairly minor) that should Russia be able to neutralize Finland before US can mount a counter, that US won't bother mounting any counter and will just see retaking/liberating Finland as lost cause as will rest of major powers in NATO.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Finland is almost certainly not going to be next now; that's the entire point of joining NATO. That possibility was on the table before Finland applied for and got NATO membership.

Yeah in a sane world we should be out of the possible invasion targets, however I've seen recent headlines that imply not only Invasion of Finland is still on the table but it's something Putin is actively planning to execute (that's where I got the 2-5 years timetable). As I'm a Finn you can probably understand why I cannot really afford to be too careless about this.

After all there's the possibility (even if fairly minor) that should Russia be able to neutralize Finland before US can mount a counter, that US won't bother mounting any counter and will just see retaking/liberating Finland as lost cause as will rest of major powers in NATO.

Putin's entire strategy in Ukraine rested on the assumption that Ukraine would fall within days, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, whether during or after the invasion. Ukraine would fall before it could receive any military aid from those countries, and since any economic sanctions against Russia wouldn't hit until the conquest was a fait accompli, the Western European countries that imported Russian energy might lose their stomach for economic retaliation.

Finland been preparing for decades against a Russian invasion, if Russia couldn't do it against Ukraine as they hoped then it sure as hell can't against Finland. Mutual defence is one of the cornerstones of NATO, if they did nothing then as an organisation it becomes completely worthless and would only embolden Putin further.

[LadyTevar]

Video of Prigozhin in Belarus?

A video on Telegram channels linked to the Wagner mercenary group appears to show its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in Belarus.

He is seen welcoming fighters and describing recent developments on the front line in Ukraine as a "disgrace".
He also hints that Wagner might rejoin the war at a later date.

The video also appears to confirm a statement by Belarus that Wagner fighters were now acting as military instructors for the country's army.
This would be the first footage of Prigozhin seen since Wagner launched an armed mutiny inside Russia in late June.

Shot in low light, it shows Prigozhin standing on an asphalt track in a field, surrounded by trees and what look like warehouses and tents
BBC Verify is confident that the layout of the tents, trees and buildings matches that of a location on the western edge of the camp.
Numerous people in camouflage can be seen in the background, and are heard cheering.

Despite the poor light, Prigozhin is just about recognisable by his silhouette, and Russian speakers familiar with his previous statements say the voice and manner of speaking is unmistakably his.

In the video, Prigozhin says that the fighters "put up a worthy fight" in Ukraine and had "done a great deal" for Russia, and strongly criticises the current conduct of the war.
"What is currently happening on the front line is a disgrace that we don't want to have any part in, and we need to wait until we can show our mettle in full," he is heard saying.
He goes on to say that "the decision has been taken to stay here in Belarus for a certain time" and Wagner would use the time to make the Belarusian army the "second army in the world".
The Wagner boss also hints that his fighters would "continue to prepare" and possibly return to the front lines in Ukraine "when we are sure that we won't be forced to put ourselves and our experience to shame".

The last comment appears to refer to previous allegations by Prigozhin that the Russian defence ministry limited the supply of ammunition to Wagner during the long and bloody battle for the eastern Ukrainian city Bakhmut to limit or thwart its success in the fighting.

At one point, Prigozhin hands over to a man he introduces as "the commander and the person who gave us the name Wagner".
Although his name is not mentioned, this is almost certain to be a rare public appearance by Dmitry Utkin, the former Russian army officer thought to be Wagner's military chief. It is his callsign - "Wagner" - the group is named after.

Earlier BBC Verify analysis showed dozens of vehicles entering the new Wagner camp at Tsel, a disused military base in southern Belarus - about 64 miles (103km) from the capital Minsk.
Under the deal that ended the short-lived rebellion, the mercenaries were told they could join the regular Russian army or head to Belarus, a close ally of Russia.

In an interview with Kommersant business daily last week, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said that "Wagner does not exist".
"There is no law on private military organisations. It just doesn't exist," the Russian president said when asked whether the group would be preserved as a fighting unit.

Low-light video.
Seen only in silhouette
Voice and mannerisms are supposedly right....

Deep Fake? AI?
Or Real?

[The_Saint]

Finland is now in NATO, Poland is also in NATO....

The rest of NATO / USA might wring their hands and dwardle following an invasion of Finalnd but with how well Ukraine fought the invasion to a standstill I can well imagine Finland could do a fair similar effort and Poland I'm sure would be happy to lend assistance considering how much they're not fond of Russia.

[Rogue 9]

If NATO fucks around with a Russian invasion of a NATO member, the trans-Atlantic alliance is done and everyone knows it.

[His Divine Shadow]

Finland is now in NATO, Poland is also in NATO....

The rest of NATO / USA might wring their hands and dwardle following an invasion of Finalnd but with how well Ukraine fought the invasion to a standstill I can well imagine Finland could do a fair similar effort and Poland I'm sure would be happy to lend assistance considering how much they're not fond of Russia.

I'm pretty sure Finland's military is far more prepared and capable of dealing with a russian invasion than the Ukrainan one was, which was in pretty dire shape and didn't start attempting reform until after 2014.

So I think if Russia had tried that even before we joined Nato, they would've been dealt a harsher blow than they did i Ukraine.

[Lord Revan]

Finland is now in NATO, Poland is also in NATO....

The rest of NATO / USA might wring their hands and dwardle following an invasion of Finalnd but with how well Ukraine fought the invasion to a standstill I can well imagine Finland could do a fair similar effort and Poland I'm sure would be happy to lend assistance considering how much they're not fond of Russia.

I'm pretty sure Finland's military is far more prepared and capable of dealing with a russian invasion than the Ukrainan one was, which was in pretty dire shape and didn't start attempting reform until after 2014.

So I think if Russia had tried that even before we joined Nato, they would've been dealt a harsher blow than they did i Ukraine.

Not mention that Finland is mostly swampy forests where as Ukraine was mostly swampy plains and tanks don't like forests that much.

[Crazedwraith]

BBC Live

The leader of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the list of passengers on an aircraft that has crashed, the Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) has said.

Ten people, including three crew members, were on board and all were killed, the agency says.

Prigozhin’s group has fought alongside Russia in Ukraine, until he headed a short-lived mutiny against Moscow in June.

[Zaune]

Well, that's made one side or the other's lives easier, but I'm not honestly sure whose at this point.

[bilateralrope]

Prigozhin was on a private aircraft in Russian airspace that happened to crash.

Putin is going to have a hard time convincing people that it was an accident. Even if that's the truth.

[Ralin]

I'd certainly like to know why the fuck he was in Russia

[Dalton]

Rumor mill is saying that the plane was shot down by Russian military, possibly by accident. But those are just uncorroborated rumors.

[Marko Dash]

this is the least accidental accident to happen recently

[Lord Revan]

Rumor mill is saying that the plane was shot down by Russian military, possibly by accident. But those are just uncorroborated rumors.

Honestly with the clusterfuck the Russian military has shown itself to be I could believe it was a genuine accident by trigger happy Russian anti-air personal or their Ukrainian "allies" (the so called separatists).

[KraytKing]

Telegram is far from reliable, but there are claims that it was an S-300 that shot the plane down. Might not have even been Putin, could have been his military command acting independently to eliminate a rival. If the coup showed us anything, it's that Putin doesn't have near the control he claims and we all thought.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Just a shame it wasn't Putin himself aboard that plane

[Rogue 9]

Rumor mill is saying that the plane was shot down by Russian military, possibly by accident. But those are just uncorroborated rumors.

Honestly with the clusterfuck the Russian military has shown itself to be I could believe it was a genuine accident by trigger happy Russian anti-air personal or their Ukrainian "allies" (the so called separatists).

The plane was shot down well outside the Ukrainian conflict zone. He was flying Moscow to St. Petersburg.

[bilateralrope]

I'd certainly like to know why the fuck he was in Russia

Wasn't he exiled ?

An exiled leader of an attempted coup suddenly in the country sounds like something that could trigger a very obvious response. Whoever fired at the plane might not have waited to get a response from higher in the chain of command.

[Ralin]

Hey mods, are we going to talk about this here or in the other thread? Because switching between them is annoying when it's the same conversation

Telegram is far from reliable, but there are claims that it was an S-300 that shot the plane down. Might not have even been Putin, could have been his military command acting independently to eliminate a rival. If the coup showed us anything, it's that Putin doesn't have near the control he claims and we all thought.

Yeah this.

Wasn't he exiled ?

An exiled leader of an attempted coup suddenly in the country sounds like something that could trigger a very obvious response. Whoever fired at the plane might not have waited to get a response from higher in the chain of command.

He also presumably wouldn't be back in the country if he hadn't been allowed in. And I don't think 'exile' is an official legal thing

[Lord Revan]

Rumor mill is saying that the plane was shot down by Russian military, possibly by accident. But those are just uncorroborated rumors.

Honestly with the clusterfuck the Russian military has shown itself to be I could believe it was a genuine accident by trigger happy Russian anti-air personal or their Ukrainian "allies" (the so called separatists).

The plane was shot down well outside the Ukrainian conflict zone. He was flying Moscow to St. Petersburg.

still doesn't rule out Russian Air defense being trigger happy/paranoid and firing on the plane without confirming it was a threat.

[Ralin]

still doesn't rule out Russian Air defense being trigger happy/paranoid and firing on the plane without confirming it was a threat.

On an internal flight?

[bilateralrope]

still doesn't rule out Russian Air defense being trigger happy/paranoid and firing on the plane without confirming it was a threat.

On an internal flight?

A flight container the leadership of a group that attempted a coup. A group that had been exiled, without any public clarifications about what that means. So I assume it means they aren't allowed in Russia.

It's easy to see how that flight could look like a threat. No need for any confusion with the invasion of Ukraine.

He also presumably wouldn't be back in the country if he hadn't been allowed in. And I don't think 'exile' is an official legal thing

I doubt he was allowed to attempt a coup. He attempted one anyway. So I wouldn't assume that he's following Russian law and/or whatever Putin told him to do.

[Ralin]

I doubt he was allowed to attempt a coup. He attempted one anyway. So I wouldn't assume that he's following Russian law and/or whatever Putin told him to do.

I believe you're missing the point that he had already crossed the border and landed, without an army (I am assuming, admittedly). If a person without an army tries to come into the country and he's not supposed to you can just arrest him when he lands. Or make him turn around and go back. Or shoot him. He can't stop you. So I don't think him breaking the law in the past is really germane, you know?

[bilateralrope]

I doubt he was allowed to attempt a coup. He attempted one anyway. So I wouldn't assume that he's following Russian law and/or whatever Putin told him to do.

I believe you're missing the point that he had already crossed the border and landed, without an army (I am assuming, admittedly). If a person without an army tries to come into the country and he's not supposed to you can just arrest him when he lands. Or make him turn around and go back. Or shoot him. He can't stop you. So I don't think him breaking the law in the past is really germane, you know?

I see two possibilities here:
- Putin ordered him shot down.
- Someone in the Russian military figured out that he was on that plane and decided to act quickly. Maybe thinking there was some reward for killing such an obvious enemy of Putin, maybe because he didn't trust whoever would be in position to meet the plane wherever it landed.

[LadyTevar]

Hey mods, are we going to talk about this here or in the other thread? Because switching between them is annoying when it's the same conversation

I'd rather see One Thread, but I can't stop people from posting in both.