UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Crazedwraith]

Presumably they were still planning to fly near the border as a show of force though even in the 2km invasion was unintentional.

[Lord Revan]

Presumably they were still planning to fly near the border as a show of force though even in the 2km invasion was unintentional.

That seems the most likely scenario, Russia and its allies seem to be trying to provoke NATO powers into making the first move without doing something that could considered obvious provocation in and of itself like flying within the territory of a NATO country intentionally.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Where Will Wagner Go Next After Exodus from Belarus?

The sensational deal between President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may have collapsed, amid reports that the mercenary fighters are leaving their bases in Belarus and heading to multiple different areas of Wagner activity.

Since Prigozhin's abortive mutiny in June, thousands of Wagner mercenaries have reportedly been relocating to Belarus, taking the Kremlin up on its offer for pardons in exchange for exile. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko oversaw the deal, and reportedly offered to fund Wagner's presence.

But while the Kremlin will likely continue to use Prigozhin's men for "psychological operations" against NATO, sources have told Newsweek that the bulk of the mercenary group may soon be redeployed elsewhere.

The Wagner-linked VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reported on Wednesday that several hundred Wagner fighters were being bussed out of the country after Lukashenko refused to pay for their relocation. The channel suggested that some fighters were traveling to the Russian cities of Voronezh, Rostov-on-Don, and Krasnodar, as well as Libya.

The Institute for the Study of War noted the reports in its Wednesday bulletin, which it said "suggest that aspects of the deal" between Putin and Prigozhin "have collapsed."

"The likely collapse of aspects of the Wagner-Putin-Lukashenko deal indicates that Putin has failed to decisively resolve issues posed by Prigozhin and Wagner following Wagner's June 24 rebellion," the ISW said.

The regular Russian military—led by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu—has been working to absorb Wagner personnel, equipment and operations since the coup collapsed. This process has been proceeding within Russia and on the battlefields of Ukraine, but Wagner's global footprint poses problems for Moscow.

Taking control of the group's lucrative African operations poses a particular problem for a Russian military that has long lacked significant power projection.

"Putin is unlikely to resolve the Wagner problem as long as tensions remain between Putin's own aim of separating Prigozhin from Wagner and Shoigu's aims to secure full [defense ministry] control over Wagner and the other armed forces fighting for Russia," the ISW bulletin said.

"Speculations about Shoigu taking over Russian military operations in Africa from Wagner, if true, will likely only exacerbate tensions between the [defense ministry] and Wagner personnel returning from Belarus or Africa to Russia rather than persuading the Wagner personnel to join conventional Russian military formations in accord with the prior deal."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries by email to request comment.

A Wagner withdrawal from Belarus—whether in part or total—would mark the end of a brief, but tense, standoff on NATO's eastern flank. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have all expanded their border military footprint in response to Wagner's arrival, fearing the mercenaries might engage in new frontier provocations or accelerate Minsk's long-standing weaponization of migrant flows.

"No one really knows yet," Franak Viacorka—the chief political adviser of exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—told Newsweek of Wagner's apparent departure. "In the next two to four weeks things will be clearer. Our insights say they will be going to African missions. But Putin and Lukashenko will be using Wagner to threaten Lithuania and Poland."

"This is exactly what they want," Viacorka added, noting that even a small contingent of Wagner troops can continue the Moscow-Minsk psychological operation against the West, while the majority of the group's forces head back to Russia or abroad.

"Instead of helping Ukraine, now the whole discussion of NATO is about protecting the border," Viacorka added. "Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin are conducting a psychological operation against the West, and they are pretty successful. From our information, the Wagner Group will probably be used for some small provocations. But it's not enough people for any serious invasion. This is all part of their big game."

Where Next for Wagner?
Samuel Ramani, the author of Russia in Africa and an associate fellow at the British Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Newsweek that a "small number" of Wagner fighters might remain in Belarus to train Lukashenko's people's militias and other units.

Financing, Ramani said, was always going to be a problem given the disappearance of Kremlin funding and the lack of natural resources to support their presence in Belarus. Prigozhin's force has already unsettled NATO, and it does not have the personnel or equipment to launch a major military operation against the alliance or Ukraine.

"There's really not much use, from a strategic perspective, for Wagner to be clustered in Belarus right now," Ramani said. "It's natural that they would want to be going elsewhere. And Russia will be their stop-off point."

"The next step is that they would probably be used to strengthen Russia's presence in Africa," Ramani added. "Maybe they'll start in Libya, maybe these forces will try to get into Niger," he said, noting Prigozhin's overtures to the newly empowered junta there.

"Some of them will probably be deactivated, and they might return one day even to the front line in Ukraine," Ramani said. "Others will probably be kept on standby in case there's a new African theater of operations that opens up and they decide to come in."

Wagner has several ongoing African military deployments. In Libya, the group is fighting with General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan Arab Armed Forces in the country's long-running civil conflict. In Sudan, Wagner forces operate lucrative gold mining and processing facilities.

In the Central African Republic, Wagner troops recently helped ensure another term for President Faustin-Archange Touadera. And in Mali, the mercenaries have moved in to fill the power vacuum left by withdrawing French forces.

"Sudan is probably the likeliest theater for them to deploy to right now," Ramani said, noting Wagner's interest in securing its gold supplies there amid the country's deepening civil war.

[Lord Revan]

There's also the matter of where can they go, in these days a roving army without a logistical base to support them won't last long so I suspect the first order of business here for Wagner would be to secure their logistics in case Russia can't be relied for that.

Gold can be means for that as way of buying the supplies they need.

I also wonder what level of devastation deactivated units could cause simply due to their ranks being filled with (former) criminals recruited straight out of prison and those people might now be "free" within Russia.

[Ralin]

There's also the matter of where can they go, in these days a roving army without a logistical base to support them won't last long so I suspect the first order of business here for Wagner would be to secure their logistics in case Russia can't be relied for that.

Gold can be means for that as way of buying the supplies they need.

A mercenary group that does security for mines and oil rigs and provides expertise for other groups has very different logistical needs from one fighting on the front lines of an actual war, bear in mind.

[LadyTevar]

Presumably they were still planning to fly near the border as a show of force though even in the 2km invasion was unintentional.

That seems the most likely scenario, Russia and its allies seem to be trying to provoke NATO powers into making the first move without doing something that could considered obvious provocation in and of itself like flying within the territory of a NATO country intentionally.

When I first heard about it, I thought it was most likely "Pilot Error" as well.
Why Belarus is doubling down on the "It Didn't Happen" when they could simply admit Pilot Error is troubling.

[LadyTevar]

There's also the matter of where can they go, in these days a roving army without a logistical base to support them won't last long so I suspect the first order of business here for Wagner would be to secure their logistics in case Russia can't be relied for that.

Gold can be means for that as way of buying the supplies they need.

A mercenary group that does security for mines and oil rigs and provides expertise for other groups has very different logistical needs from one fighting on the front lines of an actual war, bear in mind.

Which is why I'm thinking the smart move would be to leave Europe entirely for Sudan and Niger, reinforce their presence there.

[Solauren]

Which is why I'm thinking the smart move would be to leave Europe entirely for Sudan and Niger, reinforce their presence there.

That's what I'm thinking.

Being on the inside of the war (and near the Russian government), and on the outside looking in, they have to know Russia can't be trusted (either via intent, or via resources) to keep their word. Hell, they couldn't even keep them supplied with ammo.

More then likely, they took the initial offer with the intent of always going 'we don't work for you anymore, so we are out of here'. They take the fighters they want, and leave the crappy ones /ones they didn't want in Belarus. Ex-Russians probably migrate back there and cause Russia problems.

And Wagner walks away from it all, probably laughing all the way to the bank.

[Highlord Laan]

There's also the matter of where can they go, in these days a roving army without a logistical base to support them won't last long so I suspect the first order of business here for Wagner would be to secure their logistics in case Russia can't be relied for that.

Gold can be means for that as way of buying the supplies they need.

A mercenary group that does security for mines and oil rigs and provides expertise for other groups has very different logistical needs from one fighting on the front lines of an actual war, bear in mind.

Which is why I'm thinking the smart move would be to leave Europe entirely for Sudan and Niger, reinforce their presence there.

It'd be hilarious if the nations moving to reinstate the democratic government in Niger ask for western military support support. Wagner are mercenary filth, so they're covered by neither treaty or convention. Pootie and the ruz can't cite any sort of international law if the scum get wiped off the face of the earth by their betters, and doing so would cut the mercenary cunts off from a shitload of money. They can't sun screaming for mommy ruz's protection either.

[Lord Revan]

A mercenary group that does security for mines and oil rigs and provides expertise for other groups has very different logistical needs from one fighting on the front lines of an actual war, bear in mind.

Which is why I'm thinking the smart move would be to leave Europe entirely for Sudan and Niger, reinforce their presence there.

It'd be hilarious if the nations moving to reinstate the democratic government in Niger ask for western military support support. Wagner are mercenary filth, so they're covered by neither treaty or convention. Pootie and the ruz can't cite any sort of international law if the scum get wiped off the face of the earth by their betters, and doing so would cut the mercenary cunts off from a shitload of money. They can't sun screaming for mommy ruz's protection either.

Actually the Geneva conventions do cover treatment of mercenaries even if they don't outright say it.

[Ralin]

Which is why I'm thinking the smart move would be to leave Europe entirely for Sudan and Niger, reinforce their presence there.

It'd be hilarious if the nations moving to reinstate the democratic government in Niger ask for western military support support. Wagner are mercenary filth, so they're covered by neither treaty or convention. Pootie and the ruz can't cite any sort of international law if the scum get wiped off the face of the earth by their betters, and doing so would cut the mercenary cunts off from a shitload of money. They can't sun screaming for mommy ruz's protection either.

Actually the Geneva conventions do cover treatment of mercenaries even if they don't outright say it.

But posturing about destroying them is very cool and tuff.

[Lord Revan]

It'd be hilarious if the nations moving to reinstate the democratic government in Niger ask for western military support support. Wagner are mercenary filth, so they're covered by neither treaty or convention. Pootie and the ruz can't cite any sort of international law if the scum get wiped off the face of the earth by their betters, and doing so would cut the mercenary cunts off from a shitload of money. They can't sun screaming for mommy ruz's protection either.

Actually the Geneva conventions do cover treatment of mercenaries even if they don't outright say it.

But posturing about destroying them is very cool and tuff.

Did I say it was OK? I would say my statement would be the polar opposite. So let me make this perfect clear mercenaries fall under the definition of "lawful combatant" and thus are afforded all the same protections as national armies, also even if they were there's certain universal provision about treatment that apply to everyone and "no surrender allowed" is forbidden in those.

So no there's no guilt free way of slaughtering (or cheerleading the slaughter what Highlord Laan seems to be doing) mercenaries under the Geneva conventions

[Ralin]

Did I say it was OK? I would say my statement would be the polar opposite. So let me make this perfect clear mercenaries fall under the definition of "lawful combatant" and thus are afforded all the same protections as national armies, also even if they were there's certain universal provision about treatment that apply to everyone and "no surrender allowed" is forbidden in those.

So no there's no guilt free way of slaughtering (or cheerleading the slaughter what Highlord Laan seems to be doing) mercenaries under the Geneva conventions

I don't know why you are interpreting my comment as being aimed at you given the context.

[Lord Revan]

Did I say it was OK? I would say my statement would be the polar opposite. So let me make this perfect clear mercenaries fall under the definition of "lawful combatant" and thus are afforded all the same protections as national armies, also even if they were there's certain universal provision about treatment that apply to everyone and "no surrender allowed" is forbidden in those.

So no there's no guilt free way of slaughtering (or cheerleading the slaughter what Highlord Laan seems to be doing) mercenaries under the Geneva conventions

I don't know why you are interpreting my comment as being aimed at you given the context.

because you quoted me not Laan

[Ralin]

because you quoted me not Laan

I quoted both of you. I think it should be pretty obvious my comment was building off you and mocking him. Seeing as you are not the one with months of nothing but posturing tough guy posts in your history. Something which I believe I mentioned to you not long ago. Now what's say we end this tangent before the mods get upset?

[Lord Revan]

Yeah it was silly misunderstanding anyway.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I suppose it depends on your definition of 'end'.

It's quite plausible that Ukraine could force Russia from its territory, including Crimea, over the next few years. But Putin doesn't have to stop there, so long as he's in power. All he needs to do is throw the odd missile Ukraine's way every now and then, and the war is technically still on. Simply refusing to stop may end up being the only plausible bargaining chip he has left.

there's the matter that the Forever War North Korea has been engaging has drained their coffers and really the only reason North Korea hasn't been forced to sue for peace is support from China but we don't know if China is either willing or capable of supporting 2 bankrupted states whose actions only drain resources.

I don't see China propping Russia up through a forever war. If Putin tries it, he'll have to keep it low-cost. China will only help in a matter that ultimately profits them. Whatever they sell to Russia, they will charge through the nose for. Whatever they buy from Russia, they will buy at whatever price they deem appropriate, regardless of the market rate. It's a question of relative power, and the balance is shifting away from Russia fairly rapidly.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

A new development.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 92265.html

Ukraine-Russia war – latest: Putin’s troops ‘forced to retreat’ as Kyiv ‘retakes key Donetsk village’

Ukraine has been attempting to recapture strategically-significant southeastern village for days as part of its counteroffensive

Tara Cobham
Namita Singh

Russian troops have been forced to retreat as Ukraine has retaken a key village in Donetsk, according to reports.

Moscow’s forces have abandoned their positions in Urozhaine, which is a strategically-significant southeastern village that Kyiv has been attempting to recapture for days as part of its counteroffensive.

In reports that The Independent has been unable to independently verify, it has been suggested that Ukrainian soldiers used US smart bombs that were shipped over in March.

This comes as the UK Ministry of Defence said Vladimir Putin may no longer be funding the mercenary Wagner Group. In its daily bulletin on Sunday, it said the Russian state has acted against some other business interests of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin after he led a failed mutiny against the country’s army’s top brass in June.

"The second most plausible paymasters are the Belarusian authorities," it said, adding that this would be a drain on Belarus' resources.

The ministry also said the Wagner Group was moving towards downsizing and reconfiguring to save on staff salary expenses at a time of financial pressure.

If that's the Urozhaine I think it is, it's a small village on the western edge of Donetsk oblast, south of Velyka Novosilka.

[KraytKing]

I think we get ahead of ourselves if we think Ukraine can necessarily reclaim the territory it has lost.

By many accounts, the Russians are learning. They haven't suffered any enormous defeats like they did in March of 2022 recently, the sort that would have lost them the war this year. They haven't made much, if any, progress since winter, it is true, but neither has Ukraine. The capture of Urozhaine is significant, but at the very least, it took weeks to effect--at worst, two months. Unless it results in a breakthrough into undefended Russian rear areas, this will not result in a sweeping reclamation of territory. Without the sort of paradigm shift that is difficult to predict from my viewpoint, I don't think it is possible that the land bridge is cut. Given the tremendous difficulty of the operation so far, I think that even if the land bridge IS cut, recapturing Crimea or any other Ukrainian territory is far from a given.

Forever war it may become, but I believe it would be a forever war fought in Ukraine, not Russia, and fairly close to the existing lines. Unless the West steps up support to a frankly absurd degree and Ukraine gets multiple squadrons of F-35 and B-52, I don't think the war is going to change from the grinding slugfest we have seen for the last nine months.

Of course, I do still leave open the possibility of major news releases coming out. The Ukrainian side has been extremely quiet, relatively speaking, during these months of fighting. It is possible, though I believe unlikely, that a trove of censored information is released in the next few weeks revealing enormous losses of Russian manpower and materiel, and allowing for a general Ukrainian breakthrough and rapid gain of territory. We don't fully know. But my opinion, based off the severely limited information at my disposal, is not optimistic.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I wouldn't write Ukraine off that easily.

Yes, the Russians have dug in like something out of WW1, but that was the logical thing to do. Their troops may not be much good, but one thing poorly-trained troops with low morale can do pretty reliably is defend trenches; especially if all they have to do is shoot at anything that gets too close. Unless Russia can somehow recreate its ability to engage in large-scale manoeuvre warfare, its only hope now is to hold hard and bleed Ukraine to death; to make Ukrainian and Western morale break before too much territory is lost.

The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are in a tough spot. They don't have much airpower, and their missile capability is being kept busy hitting the Russian rear. A full-on assault would lead to heavy casualties, and that's something they can't afford; either for national morale or for their credibility with Western governments. F-16s are on the way, but they might not be ready until next summer. Even when they do appear, their first job will be air superiority; so they could be busy for a while.

So Ukraine seems to have toned down expectations, and doing the only thing it really can do. Ukrainian troops seem to be going for small offensives on a narrow front; creating small openings, and pushing them as far into the Russian rear as they can. They might try to go all the way and force a breakout, but more likely they widen their salients a bit first, then try to roll up the defences.

At the very least, this will be long-winded and boring. We need to forget about flashy victories for a while, probably until next year. Ukraine will be doing well if they can push far enough south the cut the railway line; which would at least complicate the supply situation in Crimea. More likely they'll have to settle for creating decent-sized salients in the Russian defences in time for the Autumn mud, then get set to push on when the ground freezes.

The big I'm not sure about is just what the Russians are doing about these assaults. If they're relying on troops in fixed positions, and not reinforcing, then the Ukrainians will break through eventually.

[Lord Revan]

I suppose it depends on your definition of 'end'.

It's quite plausible that Ukraine could force Russia from its territory, including Crimea, over the next few years. But Putin doesn't have to stop there, so long as he's in power. All he needs to do is throw the odd missile Ukraine's way every now and then, and the war is technically still on. Simply refusing to stop may end up being the only plausible bargaining chip he has left.

there's the matter that the Forever War North Korea has been engaging has drained their coffers and really the only reason North Korea hasn't been forced to sue for peace is support from China but we don't know if China is either willing or capable of supporting 2 bankrupted states whose actions only drain resources.

I don't see China propping Russia up through a forever war. If Putin tries it, he'll have to keep it low-cost. China will only help in a matter that ultimately profits them. Whatever they sell to Russia, they will charge through the nose for. Whatever they buy from Russia, they will buy at whatever price they deem appropriate, regardless of the market rate. It's a question of relative power, and the balance is shifting away from Russia fairly rapidly.

Yeah we got to remember that ultimately China will do what profits China, not what's the "most evil" so if helping Russia stops benefiting China, China will stop supporting Russia as that would not be helping their goals.

[Solauren]

Another thing to remember, it's Russia's resources against most of the countries that make up NATO, and then some. Because really, no one can afford to let Russia 'win' and occupy the Ukraine. That would be a return to the Cold War.

All that has to be done is to hold the lines, and keep pounding on Russia. Just keep sending in whatever you need to to supply/replace Ukraine equipment.

Eventually, everyone supporting Russia will go 'you know what, now you're making us look bad', and withdraw support.

Then, Russia will simply run out of whatever they need, or the upper leadership of Russia will decide to remove Putin (possibly handing him over for a cease fire long enough to withdraw whatever assets Russia has left).

Will it be quick? No
Will it be expensive? You better believe it.
Will it take several years? I'd be surprised if it took less then that.

[Zwinmar]

From what I have been reading and hearing from people in better position than I is that Ukraine can't really use Combined Arms Tactics because they do not have the airpower and they cant do SEAD missions. That has really slowed them down. Same for Russia really though they are just incompetent. If, and a big if it is, Ukraine could get the aircraft, or at least many anti-radiation missiles, then it would be a different story

[KraytKing]

The Russians are digging in like something out of 2023, not WWI. The Great War doesn't have a monopoly on hiding in a hole. If you want to slow down an enemy offensive, this is how you do it, it's something that has never really changed in the history of warfare. The potential response has changed and therefore so have the limitations and efficacy, but let's not delude ourselves that this is anything but a perfectly reasonable, modern defense that Russia has effected. The tactics and engineering have changed tremendously: trenches are far more lightly manned than they were a century ago yet wield greater firepower, and the emphasis is on defeating vehicles, not human waves. Machine guns make up a lesser percentage of firepower, enfilading zig-zags are less important in trench design, missiles exist. Rear-area helicopters, artillery, and tanks exist and are important. Mine clearing is more sophisticated.

F-16 isn't going to solve this problem for Ukraine. The numbers being given right now are very small, and they are at best an incremental upgrade to the current inventory. Most likely, a year and a half from now the Ukrainians will still be flying fewer airframes than they had in February 2022, they'll be marginally more capable, and they will be facing a far more skilled enemy with possibly depleted inventory. Not a revolutionary change, in other words.

The problem Ukraine faces is partly due to lack of air power, but that's essentially just another way of saying they can't advance because they lack sufficient firepower disparity. All combat is, at the most basic level, attaining firepower superiority, whether through bringing more guns, bigger guns, or more efficiently applying guns to enemy weaknesses. Aircraft can do all three: you can concentrate quickly, you can haul a big fuckin bomb, and you can hit the enemy in the rear echelon, directly on strongpoints, vehicles, et cetera. My point is this: it isn't so much that Ukraine lacks aircraft which are a "special sauce" to achieve victory, it's just that Ukraine can't overwhelm the Russians with firepower right now. Minefields trouble them because they can't just sit and clear them slowly; the Russians will shoot back, so you have to kinda wing it. Clear while shooting, which means you do a bad job, so shit blows up. The enemy will have a lot of guns to shoot you, so the vehicles that survive mines will still have it tough. Minefields can be remotely deployed to block retreat, so engineering is an ongoing process. And the whole time, they're artillery is hitting you, and machine guns, and helicopters.

There is no easy fix. There is a relatively simple one: pull a few thousand English=speaking Ukrainians out, spend four years training them to fly and maintain F-35 and B-2, and get a few operational squadrons in there. Then they can have total air superiority whenever and wherever they choose, and bring overwhelming firepower to bear on any point on the ground. That will, obviously, never happen. So the next best thing is what we're doing, which is give them a trickle of planes so the Russians can't have air dominance, and feed them artillery and tanks so they can fight through on the ground. Unless the Russians have fucked up monumentally and have no second line, the pace we have seen thus far will be the trend for the remainder of the war. Which will likely end on the Russian home front, when the mobilizations grow too unpopular.

To address a specific point, HARM missiles aren't going to do much. A big problem is still Russian planes, which aren't too troubled operating behind or close to friendly lines where Ukrainian air defense is thin. Ukrainian planes won't be able to effectively provide CAS even with all the HARM missiles in the world because Russian aircraft will still be able to intercept.

There is room for improvement, of course. If Ukraine had more major air defense systems, they could put a stop to this KA-52 nonsense that fucked up a bunch of columns so far. In fact, with the recent announcement that some British air defense systems were secretly provided about a month ago (I think?), I suspect they have indeed learned and so we haven't seen anything dramatic like the episode with the Bradleys back in June. Cluster munitions are great because that means more firepower, which is all they really need. And every battle, a little Russian strength is attrited, which moves the needle ever so slightly. But I don't expect any revolutionary shifts, only evolutionary ones, at this time.

[LadyTevar]

*IF* Ukraine's attacks on the Kurch Bridge and other supply lines does enough damage to take them out, even for a month, that will be huge advantage for Ukraine.

If they could totally blow that bridge it'd be the best shot of morale ever, and the biggest pie-in-the-face of Putin you could hope for.

However, every "expert" I've been reading agrees, Ukraine isn't going to make real breakthrus for months yet, because there's too many minefields, too many entrenched defenses. They'll have to get beyond all that, and assume Russian doesn't have a second line of mines and trenches, before any real progress can be made.

All we can do is sit back and throw money and equipment their way.
At Pennsic, there was a Merchant from Ukraine, and Scadians lined up to buy from them and drop money in a donation box. Individually, not much we could do, but hopefully that money when sent home helps someone's life improve.