Wagner Thread (Was Russian Coup Thread)

[Ralin]

Hey mods, are we going to talk about this here or in the other thread? Because switching between them is annoying when it's the same conversation

I'd rather see One Thread, but I can't stop people from posting in both.

I think you're pretty much the definition of someone who can stop people from doing that.

[Solauren]

Lock this Thread, Lady T

[Batman]

I agree. with the 'coup' essentially being over, this thread isn't really needed any longer. Further developments can remain in the Ukraine war thread.

[Crazedwraith]

I posted here (and first not to put too fine a point on it) because this is the thread about Wagner.

It's tangentially related to Ukraine at best. We could just easily tell that thread to stick to war stuff.

[LadyTevar]

THIS IS NOW THE WAGNER THREAD, FOR ALL FUTURE NEWS ABOUT WAGNER/PRIGOZHIN.

[LaCroix]

There have been pictures of the plane wreckage riddled with tiny holes, which is a tell for AA missiles. The Kremlin has now also pivoted to a "it was a bomb" story. Which, according to the general meme, means it most likely WASN'T a bomb.

[LaCroix]

There are reports going round that Russia is bulldozing Wagner graveyards and removing all crosses and grave markings.

Probably going to pave them over for parking lots, too, knowing what a petty shit Putin is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damnatio_memoriae is the term...

I mean, fuck Wagner, but come on... Even the Ukrainians are only going to exhume them and send the boxes back to Russia....

There is a slight chance they might make them military monuments or something, without ever telling anybody that this is going to happen, but still...

[bilateralrope]

There are reports going round that Russia is bulldozing Wagner graveyards and removing all crosses and grave markings.

Probably going to pave them over for parking lots, too, knowing what a petty shit Putin is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damnatio_memoriae is the term...

I mean, fuck Wagner, but come on... Even the Ukrainians are only going to exhume them and send the boxes back to Russia....

There is a slight chance they might make them military monuments or something, without ever telling anybody that this is going to happen, but still...

It's like Russia wants Wagner make a second coup attempt.

[wautd]

There are reports going round that Russia is bulldozing Wagner graveyards and removing all crosses and grave markings.

Probably going to pave them over for parking lots, too, knowing what a petty shit Putin is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damnatio_memoriae is the term...

I mean, fuck Wagner, but come on... Even the Ukrainians are only going to exhume them and send the boxes back to Russia....

There is a slight chance they might make them military monuments or something, without ever telling anybody that this is going to happen, but still...

It's like Russia wants Wagner make a second coup attempt.

Who knows.
Will they be loyal to their now dead commanders and try to take revenge?
Or will their loyalty easily be bought by Russias terrorist state? (they are mercenaries after all)

[LadyTevar]

Who knows.
Will they be loyal to their now dead commanders and try to take revenge?
Or will their loyalty easily be bought by Russias terrorist state? (they are mercenaries after all)

There was a story going around that Belarus cut off internet access to the Wagner bases in their territory, possibly to keep them from communicating and conspiring with other Wagner bases. Haven't heard any confirmation on that, or that Wagner has a commander that could take over.

There's been wild rumors of Wagner massing at the Belarus/Russian border, and also statements made that the Wagner Military could probably wipe out any troops Belarus sends to stop them. Again, no confirmation of Wagner leaving the bases or Belarus sending troops.
Also no idea of the parity between Wagner troops and Belarusian troops.

There's at least 1000 Wagner members in Mali, the country that kicked out all the UN Peacekeepers to keep Wagner to try to stop ISIS and other intra-tribal violence. With Prigozhin (presumed) dead, Mali's now got yet another Rogue Army within it's territory that they don't control, one with better armaments than its military. Mali's also a major producer of Gold, which was why Russia and Wagner were interested in helping out. 60metric tons of gold per year is great incentive to stay and maybe stage their own government takeover.

[Broomstick]

Rumor mill is saying that the plane was shot down by Russian military, possibly by accident. But those are just uncorroborated rumors.

Even deliberate stuff done by the Russian military has the look of an accident (or "accident") these days.

My money was on Prigozhin falling out a window, but I can't say it's surprising he's dead. Airplanes rarely actually "fall out of the sky" but the video I've seen looks pretty close to that, like something killed a major steering mechanism or removed a chunk or both. For sure, assuming whatever happened didn't kill everyone aboard instantly that ride down to the ground was a stomach-churning wait for sudden death.

Regardless of whether this was deliberate, accidental, or a result of stupidity for sure Putin will try to profit from it in every way he can.

[LadyTevar]

Rumor mill is saying that the plane was shot down by Russian military, possibly by accident. But those are just uncorroborated rumors.

Even deliberate stuff done by the Russian military has the look of an accident (or "accident") these days.

My money was on Prigozhin falling out a window, but I can't say it's surprising he's dead. Airplanes rarely actually "fall out of the sky" but the video I've seen looks pretty close to that, like something killed a major steering mechanism or removed a chunk or both. For sure, assuming whatever happened didn't kill everyone aboard instantly that ride down to the ground was a stomach-churning wait for sudden death.

Regardless of whether this was deliberate, accidental, or a result of stupidity for sure Putin will try to profit from it in every way he can.

CNN had an interview with an expert who looked over the video and said it looked like the plane was missing a wing as it flat-spiraled down.
Some photos from the crash has what looks like remains of a wing 1.5 miles from the main crash site.

[Lord Revan]

I think the question now is was the plane hit by accident or on purpose, not if it was hit by some form of AA and even then it could be an engineered accident as in the guy pulling the trigger didn't know they were shooting down Prigozhin but it was engineered so that the plane crossing to Moscow air defense area look enough like a potential drone attack that the it would be highly likely it would be shot down by overzealous/panicking air defense troops.

[Broomstick]

Tonight on the TV US military was saying it was likely a bomb. Well, for sure none of us here know.

A bomb set to sever the main spar holding a wing on certainly could result in the sort of descent depicted and explain how the wreckage was arranged. Could be set to either detonate at altitude, after a set time, or remotely. Don't know the details of the aircraft in question, but it's fairly simple to figure out where a main spare is located as its largely physics that dictates that design feature, not much in the way of options for that. Bribe or plant someone to do the deed during ground servicing, well placed it might even be there for a number of flights before either being armed or remotely detonated.

Mind you, I was never a military pilot and just a civilian with wild ass guesses - the folks who do this sort of thing for a living no doubt would have a much more elegant way to do this than I could come up with.

[Lord Revan]

Tonight on the TV US military was saying it was likely a bomb. Well, for sure none of us here know.

A bomb set to sever the main spar holding a wing on certainly could result in the sort of descent depicted and explain how the wreckage was arranged. Could be set to either detonate at altitude, after a set time, or remotely. Don't know the details of the aircraft in question, but it's fairly simple to figure out where a main spare is located as its largely physics that dictates that design feature, not much in the way of options for that. Bribe or plant someone to do the deed during ground servicing, well placed it might even be there for a number of flights before either being armed or remotely detonated.

Mind you, I was never a military pilot and just a civilian with wild ass guesses - the folks who do this sort of thing for a living no doubt would have a much more elegant way to do this than I could come up with.

and with a bomb there's also the "benefit" that it doesn't point directly at Putin, Prigozhin had more then his fair share of enemies some probably within the military or FSB so there would be people there who'd know how to plant a bomb for max damage and that's just his enemies in Russia.

While Putin did benefit from this it doesn't mean absolutely mean he was the one who gave the order, it could have been one Prigozhin's other enemies who gave the actual order and Putin just looked the other way.

[Ralin]

and with a bomb there's also the "benefit" that it doesn't point directly at Putin, Prigozhin had more then his fair share of enemies some probably within the military or FSB so there would be people there who'd know how to plant a bomb for max damage and that's just his enemies in Russia.

While Putin did benefit from this it doesn't mean absolutely mean he was the one who gave the order, it could have been one Prigozhin's other enemies who gave the actual order and Putin just looked the other way.

Seems like that's a mark in the 'Putin didn't order it' column? As previously noted, this was a domestic flight. They were already on the ground in Saint Petersburg. If Putin wanted it done they could have just shot or arrested the guys then instead of faffing around with bombs and killing a poor flight attendant.

[Rogue 9]

and with a bomb there's also the "benefit" that it doesn't point directly at Putin, Prigozhin had more then his fair share of enemies some probably within the military or FSB so there would be people there who'd know how to plant a bomb for max damage and that's just his enemies in Russia.

While Putin did benefit from this it doesn't mean absolutely mean he was the one who gave the order, it could have been one Prigozhin's other enemies who gave the actual order and Putin just looked the other way.

Seems like that's a mark in the 'Putin didn't order it' column? As previously noted, this was a domestic flight. They were already on the ground in Saint Petersburg. If Putin wanted it done they could have just shot or arrested the guys then instead of faffing around with bombs and killing a poor flight attendant.

Putin seems to love his (barely) plausible deniability.

[Raw Shark]

Seems like that's a mark in the 'Putin didn't order it' column? As previously noted, this was a domestic flight. They were already on the ground in Saint Petersburg. If Putin wanted it done they could have just shot or arrested the guys then instead of faffing around with bombs and killing a poor flight attendant.

Shooting them or having them arrested on the ground just doesn't have that Putin panache. It's probably an unspoken rule among his ninjas or whatever that if you can't use something radioactive, at least try to work in an explosion.

[Lord Revan]

There's also the matter that having Prigozhin arrested or shot seems like a direct link to Putin, while with a bomb it's probably easier to list the people who didn't want Prigozhin dead and have access to explosives then to list those that did want him dead (and have access to explosives).

[Ralin]

There's also the matter that having Prigozhin arrested or shot seems like a direct link to Putin, while with a bomb it's probably easier to list the people who didn't want Prigozhin dead and have access to explosives then to list those that did want him dead (and have access to explosives).

This isn't some journalist living in the UK though. This is a Russian guy in Russia who committed actual crimes and insurrection in Russia during a war. No one is going to sanction Putin harder over it. Doesn't seem like a plausible deniability fig leaf is warranted.

[Bedlam]

There's also the matter that having Prigozhin arrested or shot seems like a direct link to Putin, while with a bomb it's probably easier to list the people who didn't want Prigozhin dead and have access to explosives then to list those that did want him dead (and have access to explosives).

This isn't some journalist living in the UK though. This is a Russian guy in Russia who committed actual crimes and insurrection in Russia during a war. No one is going to sanction Putin harder over it. Doesn't seem like a plausible deniability fig leaf is warranted.

I would see it as making it slightly less likely that the rest of the group will retaliate or at least maybe cause an argument over who to retaliate against. Do you want to risk your life in a dangerous action against someone who might not even be responsible?

If Prigozhin had been held up at the airport and someone had read out a signed statement from Putin stating 'I'm having you shot because you suck' before him being shot int the head then there's no doubt but a random unatributed explosion leaves a bit of doubt which might reduce or delay any reaction.

[Solauren]

An explosion can also be blamed on the Ukraine government, so that Wagner group rejoins the war on Russia's side.

[LadyTevar]

This really isn't surprising news

MOSCOW CONFIRMS PRIGOZHIN DEAD

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has been confirmed dead after genetic analysis of bodies found in Wednesday's plane crash, Russian officials say.

The Investigative Committee (SK) said the identities of all 10 victims had been established and corresponded to those on the flight's passenger list.

Prigozhin's private jet came down north-west of Moscow on 23 August, killing all those on board.

The Kremlin has denied speculation it was to blame for the crash.

The SK said it was continuing a criminal investigation. "Molecular-genetic testing has been completed," it said in a statement. "According to its results, the identities of all 10 deceased have been established, and they correspond to the list published in the flight manifest."

The victims include several senior figures in Wagner, a Russian mercenary group set up by Prigozhin and involved in military operations in Ukraine, Syria and parts of Africa. Among them was Dmitry Utkin, who managed Wagner's military operations. The others on the Embraer Legacy plane - flying from Moscow to St Petersburg - included Wagner members Valery Chekalov, Sergei Propustin, Yevgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin and Nikolay Matuseyev.

The plane was flown by pilot Alexei Levshin and co-pilot Rustam Karimov, and there was one flight attendant, Kristina Raspopova.

[KraytKing]

I think the question now is was the plane hit by accident or on purpose, not if it was hit by some form of AA and even then it could be an engineered accident as in the guy pulling the trigger didn't know they were shooting down Prigozhin but it was engineered so that the plane crossing to Moscow air defense area look enough like a potential drone attack that the it would be highly likely it would be shot down by overzealous/panicking air defense troops.

I seriously doubt it was a case of accidental AA fire. Yeah, there's a lot of air defenses on alert surrounding Moscow, but it is pretty fucking easy to tell the difference between a drone and a passenger plane. And this is Moscow we're talking about: there are four major airports in the city, each handling dozens of flights per day. Seeing a passenger plane on radar is not new to any of the defenders.