UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[KraytKing]

Good analysis, LaCriox.

It sounds like Ukraine is doing extremely well for itself in what's going to be more like the Battle of the Bulge than anything modern US/NATO forces are used to and trained for.

The thing is, the US/NATO's experience so far has been something akin to '3rd World Country of the Week' sort of deals. Where incompetence tends to be the order of the day to 'coup proof' the various militaries. While Russia is incompetent, it isn't Arab levels of incompetence... yet.

Man, you said something racist a while ago, and for some reason got away with it. So you decided to go be racist again?

Just don't use an ethnic term, man, unless you mean the ethnicity. You explained last time that you just meant "current governments and institutions that happen to exist in Arab countries," but then you went ahead and assigned the negative connotation to an ethnic term again. So are you trying to edge by with the racism, or are you just using lazy, incendiary shorthand?

[LadyTevar]

The thing is, the US/NATO's experience so far has been something akin to '3rd World Country of the Week' sort of deals. Where incompetence tends to be the order of the day to 'coup proof' the various militaries. While Russia is incompetent, it isn't Arab levels of incompetence... yet.

I BELIEVE WE HAD THIS CONVERSATION BEFORE, AND I SAID IT WAS NOT GOOD AND TO DROP IT

THIS IS THE SECOND TIME YOU'VE BEEN REPORTED FOR USING THIS IN A SEEMINGLY RACIST WAY. DO NOT DO SO AGAIN.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

The thing is, the US/NATO's experience so far has been something akin to '3rd World Country of the Week' sort of deals. Where incompetence tends to be the order of the day to 'coup proof' the various militaries. While Russia is incompetent, it isn't Arab levels of incompetence... yet.

I BELIEVE WE HAD THIS CONVERSATION BEFORE, AND I SAID IT WAS NOT GOOD AND TO DROP IT

THIS IS THE SECOND TIME YOU'VE BEEN REPORTED FOR USING THIS IN A SEEMINGLY RACIST WAY. DO NOT DO SO AGAIN.

Sorry, force of habit.

Still, given the situation, the southern flank is more akin to the Battle of the Bulge than anything that NATO is used to.

[LaCroix]

It's an overarching term, but untrue - we see the same in the South Americas, Asia, and Africa. It is a dictator army.

Given that most dictatorships have mostly armies designed to look good, be big enough to deter neighbors, and to keep revolts down. A big army of mostly light infantry, with little training above basic soldier 101, usually almost a gang of thugs, barely held in control by their officers. A military leadership based on friendship, family ties and loyality instead of actual competence, with a lot of financial incentive instad of "just a carreer". And then an elite cadre of "guard soldiers", which is better equipped and "trained", but also chosen on loyality, not skill. Still better than the rest of the military, but only marginally so, and that is used to dissuate coups if some of the leaderships still do get ideas. It is not a problem in warfare, as they usually face enemies with the same design. What happens once they face a determined enemy with actual military training has been seen a couple of times all over the world.

Russias army is pretty similar to this, just a lot bigger and with sooo much more equipment. And a notion to actual training - so it is a middle ground between a working and a dictator army.

They do have reasonably well trained troops. But the military is known to be a breeding ground for criminals, and a nightmare to get through (rampant bullying and worse)
Their equipment is pretty much up to standard, but their general strategy is simply throw everything at the enemy until they are overrun.
They have a loyalty-driven and corrupt leadership, but most of them do have expeerience, but only in various key aspects, and lack adaptability.
Money is constantly funneled away, to the point equipment is only existing on paper, rotting, and soldiers wages are getting "lost", but there is still enough material to make them work.

This is the first time we do have a superior equipped smaller army fighting against a much bigger dictator army. (Budget wise)

Iraq was theoretically bigger than the (deployed) US army in manpower, but not in budget. It was decided within a couple of hours - the moment the air defense and airforce was wiped away, the US was able to bomb everything out of existence for over a month. When the troops finally marched in, it was more of a formalization of the loss that already occurred.
That is the current Nato doctrine - Air superiority, bombs, cruise missiles, some more bombs, mobile advance with massive CAS.
Nothing of this is applicable to an enemy with superior air force, massive air defense, trench networks, massed artillery and the worlds biggest minefield.

This is why pretty much every military mind in Europe is taking notes, right now - the US has a habit of flying over, bombing things to shit, and then just waltzing in. Most other countries can't do that. Right now, Ukraine is showing everybody how to fight an army with bigger coffers. You bet your ass china is taking a lot of notes, too. Everything Ukraine does is exactly what needs to be done if the US attacks you. Deny air superiority, trade ground for casualties, concentrate on supply lines and support weaponry, deny mobility. Of course, once you force them to entrench, you have to get them yout the hard way, but this was the only way to stop Russia to take everything.

This is a war of attrittion, but the main weapon is not the attrition on the field. Ukraine knows that that wining on the field is important, but they will win simply due to the sanctions.

Right now, Russia is REALLY starting to feel the pain. Ruble is dropping again, even though they bought all the foreign money and hiked the rate once more, to 13%. Russian economy is squealing like a pig with the financial presure this generates, and at the same time, important, irreplaceable factories are going up in flames every day, all over the country, either by sabotage or by simply not being properly maintained due lack of young, competent workforce, which is currently being ground up in Ukraine.

The russian budgt was spent in the first three months, their reserves are confiscated or drying up, everything gets cut to finance another hike in military expenditure. Prices have doubled, gas prices have risen so much that in order to hide them, they started to drop package sizes - they now show prices in rubles per 0.9 liters at the pump. If there is something left to be pumped. Lately, Russia has prohibited the export of diesel fuel. They have come to a point their production is not enough to secure military and civilian consumption. So they had to cut one of their income streams.

Latest reports of the Russia having ~300k death certificates printed for the military suggest that the reported estimated numbers are pretty much spot on, probably even low balled. Russia is now starting another mobilisation - their third. They are starting to indoctrinate and train children into soldiers inside the school system in order to get them the moment they are old enough.



The fact that we see more modern tank losses on the russian side is another indicator for how bad things are - they are running out of older stuff that can easily be made to work, so the percentage of the new stuff getting blown up is rising. They simply can't hold them back for safer deployment anymore. But at the same time, Russia is only producing a few handful of tanks per month, but loses about ten per day. AFV? maybe 50 a month, but lose 20 per day. Artillery, same production, but they are losing 30 every day - this is pretty much their whole production capacity of a month, lost in one or two days, a week tops.

Same for airframes - they hare using them as little as possible, because if they are not getting shot down, they start falling out of the sky, and the moment they have their planes up, they also have to shut down their air defense, because they are prone to hiting their own. But while not being sent out, they are getting chewed up by drone attacks. And with the lack of parts, each time they send a jet out, even without any combat damage, there is a significant chance it will not be working another time - airfields are full of planes getting cannibalized for parts.

So by the time F16s show up, you pretty much only have to buzz the frontlines a few times using standoff missiles, until the russian airforce will simply stay grounded for lack of airframes.

Satellite images of storage yards show that they have pretty much used up everything left rotting there, kit-bashing them together into something somewhat useful, like naval guns crudely welded onto old APCs, the old "2 wrecks to 1 working antique "conversions, and so on.

People are no longer ordering russian arms, after seing how ineeffective they are, and the things that were orderd are getting cancelled because russia is not able to deliver. The few trades they still do are high-priced vehicles in return for old munition storage.

Nothing of this is sustainable. At this point, if all that Ukraine does is sitting at the current borders and keep inflicting the same losses in man and material, Russia will still collapse, sooner or later.

At the same time, Ukraine is building up a domestic military industry - their shell output is taking off, they produce drones/loitering munitions like nobody else, have deals to start AA systems produced locally wthin 2023, will get Tank production lines set up by 2024. With their economy still doing rather well, given that it is constantly under attack.

So they are getting better and better, and more independent from foreign supply, while Russia is still pulling rusty wrecks off the storage yards and paint them, and now has started to beg for munitions from North Korea, while depending on Iran for most of their drone supply.

China has now started restricting supply to them and even claimed territory from them, Armenia (their defense allianz partner, on paper) is now signing the Rome statute because Russia has been shown being too busy with one small neighbor to actually help their alliance partners.

BRICS is falling apart since Russia is occupied, China and India are having border clashes, and South Africa is imploding, and Brazil... is being Brazil...

[LadyTevar]

La Crois, I won't lie, this is more information than I ever hear, even from BBC sources.

At this point, it's looking very unlikely that Russia will be able to win this war.

[Lord Revan]

Well if the Ukrainians get cocky and thus suffer a total collapse could allow Russia to win, though I suspect it would still be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia and it's would be more "force Ukraina to peace terms that allow Russia to keep what they got" then full supression of Ukraine as an Independent Country what is Russia's true goal.

That's also why I suspect that Russia won't hardliner successor for Putin, after all any successor would be left with the mess Russia is currently and someone who is even more hardline then Putin will mean the sanctions will most likely stay up and it's not what Russian elite wants.

[Broomstick]

It is a dictator army.

I like that term. Or maybe "authoritarian regime army".

[Gandalf]

Authoritarian regimes can still have professional and competent armed forces. So dictator still works better for it's focus on the singular head.

[Crazedwraith]

I've not been keeping up like I should but from headlines, the US have passed a funding bill with no Ukraine support and support in Poland dying away with an upcoming election there, how badly is Ukraine going to start feeling this?

I've been worried for while that the longer this goes on, the less support they get from a world forgetting about them and the worse their situation gets.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

It's not so much forgetting as vested interests getting in the way.

In the case of Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, it could be down to a certain sympathy for Russia and/or Putin; or because they want Russia as a protector. It could also be nothing more than pandering to farming interests over Ukrainian grain.

This is in part why Ukraine is bothering to advance; rather than just hunker down and kill Russians. Ukraine and its backers need this war to end as soon as possible; with Russia off Ukrainian soil. For the backers, this is the only way they'll get any economic or strategic payback for all that money and weaponry. It's also the only way they can resolve the issues that are fuelling Ukraine-scepticism in Eastern Europe; such as the grain issue, and all the money and weaponry in general.

[Highlord Laan]

That there are even putinites in Eastern Europe at all is flabbergasting to me. Let alone the bastards being in government.

Then again, I'm in uhmurrikkka, where an entire political party thinks the Z's are right.

[Ralin]

Then again, I'm in uhmurrikkka, where an entire political party thinks the Z's are right.

Again, people keep saying that, but at least half the Republicans seem just as down with supporting Ukraine as the Democrats.

[Highlord Laan]

Then again, I'm in uhmurrikkka, where an entire political party thinks the Z's are right.

Again, people keep saying that, but at least half the Republicans seem just as down with supporting Ukraine as the Democrats.

They're not the ones in power, and they vote party line with the fascists anyway. What's the term for one that willingly breaks bread with a fascist? Oh, right. Still a fucking fascist.

[Ralin]

Then again, I'm in uhmurrikkka, where an entire political party thinks the Z's are right.

Again, people keep saying that, but at least half the Republicans seem just as down with supporting Ukraine as the Democrats.

They're not the ones in power, and they vote party line with the fascists anyway.

You're just raving. Quick Google search says that the majority of Republicans in Congress have repeatedly voted in favor of aid to Ukraine

https://www.businessinsider.com/which-h ... 023-7?op=1

https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-repu ... id-1706463

Their record is mixed, but it's not at all true that they are collectively siding with Russia.

What's the term for one that willingly breaks bread with a fascist? Oh, right. Still a fucking fascist.

Mmm, nope. Unless you think the term for someone who voted for Obama or Biden is wedding bomber.

[Ralin]

So anyway, it turns out Prigozhin wasn't assassinated. He and others on the jet got drunk all got drunk or high and started playing with hand grenades and there was an unfortunate accident.

That makes sense. I feel silly in retrospect for thinking it was anything else.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/europe/vla ... rcna119067

Oct. 6, 2023, 3:46 AM CST
By David K. Li
Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted Thursday that mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's death in a plane crash wasn't an act of sabotage — but rather the result of drug- or alcohol-fueled play with grenades.

Putin offered up the wild theory in a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, six weeks after Prigozhin's plane fell from the sky in what's widely believed to have been an assassination.


"I know there must be a question hanging in the air as to what happened to the company’s top management," Putin said. "The Investigative Committee head [Alexander Bastrykin] reported to me just the other day that hand grenade fragments had been found in the bodies of those killed in the plane crash."

Putin hinted that those on board might have played a role in their own demises, insinuating alcohol or cocaine might have led to play with grenades.

Prigozhin was aboard a plane that crashed north of Moscow killing all 10 people on board.

“Unfortunately, tests on traces of alcohol or drugs in the blood of those killed were not taken, although we know that after the events we all know about [the uprising] the FSB [Russia's intelligence agency] found not only 10 billion [rubles] in cash, but also 5 kilograms of cocaine in the Saint Petersburg office" of Prigozhin’s company, Putin said.

Prigozhin most likely signed his own death warrant when he led the Wagner Group, his private military company, on a short-lived but tense uprising against Putin's military in late June.

When Wagner Group mercenaries stopped short of Moscow, Prigozhin was reportedly allowed to leave Russia for Belarus.

U.S. intelligence has said Prigozhin's plane crashed because an intentionally set explosive went off on board.


The Kremlin has denied it had a role in the catastrophe, but multiple U.S. officials have told NBC News that intelligence pointed to sabotage as a leading cause for the crash.

And considering that Prigozhin's march toward Moscow presented the most serious yet threat to Putin's power, it's widely believed that Putin might have played a key role in his death.

"There was no external impact on the plane," Putin said. "This is an established fact, a fact established by the examination that Russia’s Investigative Committee has conducted. The investigation still continues."

It disturbs me that I'm not completely sure Putin is bullshitting. It is, after all, 2023.

[Lord Revan]

Personally I find much better that Prigozhin would have died out of his own stupidity rather assassinated that way it's much harder for "internet though guys" to mold him into a martyr for the cause of starting World War 3 right this instant.

[Broomstick]

That there are even putinites in Eastern Europe at all is flabbergasting to me. Let alone the bastards being in government.

Then again, I'm in uhmurrikkka, where an entire political party thinks the Z's are right.

Here's another amazing factoid: Jews that fought for Hitler's Germany

Truth IS stranger than fiction.

[Gandalf]

What's the term for one that willingly breaks bread with a fascist? Oh, right. Still a fucking fascist.

Indeed. The Republicans embraced this angry populism, and now seem surprised that it's blowing up in their faces.

[madd0c0t0r2]

This is a war of attrittion, but the main weapon is not the attrition on the field. Ukraine knows that that wining on the field is important, but they will win simply due to the sanctions.
...
Latest reports of the Russia having ~300k death certificates printed for the military suggest that the reported estimated numbers are pretty much spot on, probably even low balled. Russia is now starting another mobilisation - their third. They are starting to indoctrinate and train children into soldiers inside the school system in order to get them the moment they are old enough.

where you getting the 3rd mobilisation from?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-10-03/

[Highlord Laan]

https://imgur.com/gallery/V0qd7TO

Behold, the might of mother russia.

[LadyTevar]

https://imgur.com/gallery/V0qd7TO

Behold, the might of mother russia.

I'm with the rest of the commentary... HOW does it not explode in their faces?

[Gandalf]

I'm also bamboozled as to why it was apparently filmed?

[Ralin]

I'm also bamboozled as to why it was apparently filmed?

For social media, presumably

[Zaune]

I'm with the rest of the commentary... HOW does it not explode in their faces?[/quote]
Because if there is one thing Russia's defence industry has always done very well, it's design equipment with a high degree of idiot-resistance.

[Broomstick]

https://imgur.com/gallery/V0qd7TO

Behold, the might of mother russia.

I'm with the rest of the commentary... HOW does it not explode in their faces?

If it's that reluctant to go in how does it not jam when fired?