Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

[EnterpriseSovereign]

At least 500 dead after airstrike hits Gaza hospital, health ministry says

Gaza's health ministry, which is run by Hamas, has claimed at least 500 people have died after an airstrike struck a hospital in Gaza City.

Israel, it has emerged, has targeted areas of southern Gaza with airstrikes, after telling Palestinians to flee south of the Wadi Gaza river. Israel's military has said it was hitting military targets.

Aid for Gazans remains stuck at Egypt's border as humanitarian groups plead for water and food, while hospitals are on the verge of losing electricity.

At least 3,000 Palestinians and over 1,400 Israelis have died as the conflict enters its eleventh day.

Mediators have been trying to reach a ceasefire as efforts persist to open the Rafah crossing - Gaza's only connection to Egypt.

More than 500 people have been killed after an airstrike hit a hospital in Gaza City, Gaza's health ministry has said.

The Hamas-run ministry said the strike hit the al-Ahli Hospital, where hundreds of people have been sheltering.

ActionAid condemned the strike, calling it an "egregious violation of international humanitarian law".

Mum pleads 'bring my baby home' after daughter appears in Hamas hostage video
Lead doctor at the al-Ahli Hospital Dr Husam Abu Safeya said: "We are overwhelmed. We are struggling to help the victims. It is a breach of the Geneva Conventions to attack a hospital.

"We can't deal with the large number of deaths and injuries. Most victims are women and children sleeping in the hospital. We expect more hospitals to be bombed. There is no safe place in Gaza."

In a statement, Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: "We will get the details and update the public. I don't know to say whether it was an Israeli air strike."

Several hospitals in Gaza City have become refuges for hundreds of people, hoping they would be spared bombardment after Israel ordered all residents of the city and surrounding areas to evacuate to the southern Gaza Strip.

On Tuesday, Israel launched airstrikes into areas of southern Gaza, including the city of Khan Younis.

Hamas hideouts, infrastructure and command centres were the targets of the strikes, Israel's military said.

A senior Palestinian official said President Mahmoud Abbas cancelled his planned meeting on Wednesday with US President Joe Biden in light of the attacks.

The US had hoped to break the deadlock, with President Biden scheduled to head to Israel and Jordan on Wednesday.

ITV News footage from Khan Younis shows a number of children, who were caught up in Israeli airstrikes, being rushed to the Al Aqsa hospital for treatment.

At one point, a medical professional can be seen running as he carries a dust covered baby into a cubicle and cleans their eyes out with sanitary wipes.

More than one million people have fled their homes, and 60% are now in the Israeli designated evacuation zone, according to the United Nations (UN).

The UN has said there is "concern" over the strikes in southern Gaza and warned Israel over a possible war crime.

A baby, who was caught up in the Israeli bombing of Khan Younis, is rushed to the Al Aqsa hospital for treatment

A spokesperson for the UN's high commissioner for human rights said the Israeli military demanding Palestinians move to southern Gaza could lead to the "forcible transfer of civilians - in breach of international law".

Truckloads of aid remains stuck at Egypt's border with Gaza, as residents and humanitarian groups plead for water, food, and fuel for dying generators.

Hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians are searching for food, and hospitals are now on the verge of losing electricity.

Thousands of people trying to escape Gaza are gathered in the city of Rafah, which has the territory's only border crossing to Egypt.

Israeli airstrikes forced the crossing to shut down last week, but it remains unclear which side is keeping it closed. Footage on an Egyptian news channel appeared to show an Israeli strike at the crossing, though the extent of the damage is unclear.

Mediators are pressing for an agreement to let aid in and refugees with foreign passports out as the World Health Organisation (WHO) says the region faces an "imminent crisis".

The World Food Programme said it had more than 300 tonnes of food waiting to cross into Gaza.

The conflict has now entered its eleventh day, and at least 3,000 people have been killed and 12,500 wounded in Gaza, according to its health ministry.

More than 1,400 Israelis have been killed - the vast majority being civilians who were massacred in Hamas' attack on Saturday, October 7.

Husam Zomlot, head of the Palestinian mission to the UK, warned in a press briefing on Tuesday that the real figure in Gaza is "much higher" as rescue teams have not yet reached all those trapped under rubble.

As President Biden plans to signal White House support, Iran warned the prospect of the conflict spreading to other fronts is becoming "inevitable".

"The time for political solutions is running out and the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

King Abdullah II of Jordan said at a meeting with German Chancellor OIaf Scholz, in Berlin, that neither Jordan nor Egypt would be willing to take in any Palestinian refugees.

Downing Street has urged Israel to allow water into Gaza, while refusing to say whether it believes the tactic to shut off the supply was in line with international law.

Rishi Sunak also told his cabinet that Hamas was responsible for the "murder and suspected abduction of British nationals".

Asked if it is believed that some of the missing British citizens may have been kidnapped, the PM's official spokesman said it is a "dynamic situation", but that the "full details of this attack are still becoming clear".

Israel has evacuated towns near its northern border with Lebanon, where the military has exchanged fire repeatedly with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group.

Speaking to the Israeli Knesset, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a warning to Iran and Hezbollah.

Referring to Israel's 2006 conflict with Hezbollah, which operates out of Lebanon, he said: "Don't test us in the north. Don't make the mistake of the past. Today, the price you will pay will be far heavier."

Israel's military said on Monday that at least 199 hostages were taken into Gaza - more than previously estimated.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Double post edit.

[MKSheppard]

Can we try not to get this thread locked again for IvP bullshit, when clearly there are happenings occurring?

It appears that the strike that hit the hospital wasn't (purely) IDF in origin, but either:

A.) Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket failed on launch (like 30% do) and fell short.

or

B.) Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket intercepted by Iron dome and fell on hospital.

IN either case, the 400 kg warhead of that class rocket caused a big badda boom.

Major protests; Biden was gonna meet with Arab leaders tomorrow after he met with Netanyahu, but now the arab meetings are off after this.

Could get sporty.

[MKSheppard]

Major protests EVERYWHERE over that Hospital.

In Kurecik, Turkey, a crowd is trying to break into the US base there; and is being confronted by Turkish police.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-jord ... cancelled/

President Biden's planned stop in Jordan, which was to take place after his visit to Israel, has been cancelled. Jordan's foreign minister said the scheduled meeting with Arab leaders has been called off.

The decision to cancel the Jordan meetings was "mutual," according to a senior administration official. Mr. Biden is still traveling to Israel for meetings that will take place Wednesday.

The White House confirmed the cancellation as the president departed Washington, D.C., for Israel, less than 24 hours after the trip was announced. Mr. Biden had been scheduled to travel to Amman, Jordan, to meet with Jordan's King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

[Ralin]

A.) Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket failed on launch (like 30% do) and fell short.

or

B.) Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket intercepted by Iron dome and fell on hospital.

IN either case, the 400 kg warhead of that class rocket caused a big badda boom.

And we're supposed to believe Hamas has rockets that big to throw around why?

[loomer]

If you want to make the claim, be able to prove it.

Some videos from a thread on another forum that I keep going back to.

Okay, let's go through these in order - though the claim you are being asked to prove is that Palestinian organizations have held total information control until the rise of the internet age, not that Hamas do shady shit.

Video 1: Let's establish, as a generally sound base rule, that direct claims from both Hamas and the IDF are not prima facie reliable sources. Do you disagree?
Beyond that suggestion - this video does not in fact depict the use of an ambulance to disguise Hamas fighters en route to a conflict zone. Unless you have further contextual evidence this is just a video of... some people getting into an ambulance? Is there any evidence whatsoever that this video depicts what you claim other than the IDF's say-so?
Video 2:
Appears to be falsely claiming to be from Reuters. A cursory search found no evidence they produced it or reported on it. The video also shows some fairly significant signs of selective editing. Also, not to put too fine a point on it: this is nearly twenty years old, from a very small account that does not appear to be affiliated with Reuters or any other journalistic body. This is what we call 'an unreliable source' and would need to be properly verified and geolocated. Have you done so? Has anyone? I note that the time period it was released in would seem to indicate it was part of the Qana ambulance arguments, and that the ambulance is UN-marked which should help narrow it down. This being the case, I think it rather notable that the UN claims there has only been one incident of militants using a UN ambulance to travel (see Overton, Matthew, ‘“Trojan Ambulances”: An Emerging Threat’ (2013) 5(11) Journal of Paramedic Practice 632, 633).

Video 3:
Another gritty, low-res video without any other contextual evidence. 'A video on youtube' in and of itself does not constitute acceptable evidence, GAF. But, since I'm doing my best to be honest and impartial - this appears to be video of an incident in 2002 in Ramallah. So again, nearly two decades old.

Video 4:
Yet another one that's nearly twenty years old. Where exactly are you digging these up? Malkin, meanwhile, is also not an unbiased source and part of the neo-nazi/alt-right movement. But, let's look at the videos she references: We've already covered her #1 (it was #3 of yours); #2 did not involve the militarization of an ambulance and also contains a basic error of fact (Wafa Idris was not a medical secretary); #3 is the same as Video 2 but provides us with contextual clues that the incident took place in 2004. This suggests it is the one incident the UN acknowledges. The sole, solitary one, in which Hamas fighters took the driver hostage and used the ambulance to... checks notes get to a hospital immediately due to life-threatening injuries. #4 has no bearing and is correct - there are Hamas politicals all over the place, which is not in and of itself a crime. Claims #5 and #6 has no bearing on ambulances and occurred in 2002. #7 is pretty standard politics (and b-roll, for that matter) and also in Lebanon, not Palestine.

Then we get to #8: Qana. I see your... checks notes... white nationalist reporter of dubious reliability, and raises you Human Rights Watch. The conclusion of Human Rights Watch is that the attack did take place and was, almost beyond any doubt, at the hands of Israeli military forces. See ‘The “Hoax” That Wasn’t’ [2006]. One also notes the irony that Malkin objects to relying on the footage of local cameramen in light of her use of the video at #3.


I suspect I am spending more time trying to verify your facts than you are.

I mean HAMAS and similar groups to use their homes and other protected buildings as weapon stockpiles, launch sites, and even tunnel enterences; attack people with knives; have genocide of the Jews in their charters and even if it isn't anymore, still follow through; kill anyone that is even possibly gay...

... oh, and have a video of how HAMAS and similar groups have been using their school system to turn kids into future terrorists:

These, again, do not demonstrate the contentious claim you have been asked to provide evidence for. Please do so rather than trying to waste our time verifying a dozen videos and articles for relatively uncontentious points like 'Hamas are not very nice and routinely break the laws of armed conflict' and 'Hamas formerly had the extermination of Jews as part of its policy, but has since moderated that to only Zionism'. These are not new ideas or facts in this discussion. Please also try and bring things from this fucking decade rather than trying to edge us into IvP territory. I'd sooner not have to start a second thread to cover the actual, ongoing crisis right now because whatever rightwing forum you're asking for help is feeding you content from a decade ago.

Yeah any claim that Palestinians fake massacres is automatically a lie and the articles you cite are garbage. The ugly truth is that when a Palestinian is seen on video being murdered by an idf member or abused the Palestinian almost certainly IS in fact being murdered or abused (with any “evidence” otherwise being either faked, ignoring physics or edited.)

The only people who honestly make that claim are racist who want the Palestinians to be subhuman animals.

https://www.972mag.com/a-particularly-u ... pallywood/

https://www.972mag.com/pallywood-trope-second-intifada/

Beat me to it, Yan.

[loomer]

At least 500 dead after airstrike hits Gaza hospital, health ministry says

Gaza's health ministry, which is run by Hamas, has claimed at least 500 people have died after an airstrike struck a hospital in Gaza City.

Israel, it has emerged, has targeted areas of southern Gaza with airstrikes, after telling Palestinians to flee south of the Wadi Gaza river. Israel's military has said it was hitting military targets.

Aid for Gazans remains stuck at Egypt's border as humanitarian groups plead for water and food, while hospitals are on the verge of losing electricity.

At least 3,000 Palestinians and over 1,400 Israelis have died as the conflict enters its eleventh day.

Mediators have been trying to reach a ceasefire as efforts persist to open the Rafah crossing - Gaza's only connection to Egypt.

More than 500 people have been killed after an airstrike hit a hospital in Gaza City, Gaza's health ministry has said.

The Hamas-run ministry said the strike hit the al-Ahli Hospital, where hundreds of people have been sheltering.

ActionAid condemned the strike, calling it an "egregious violation of international humanitarian law".
...

Several hospitals in Gaza City have become refuges for hundreds of people, hoping they would be spared bombardment after Israel ordered all residents of the city and surrounding areas to evacuate to the southern Gaza Strip.
...

For those wondering - no, the warnings do not provide an effective shield for large-scale civilian casualties. Where civilian populations are unable to or unwilling to exit a conflict zone, the armed parties still have a paramount duty to minimize the amount of harm that comes to both protected infrastructure and to civilian populations. This is particularly the case where the areas in question are marked and broadcasted as having a large civilian presence.

[Ralin]

For those wondering - no, the warnings do not provide an effective shield for large-scale civilian casualties. Where civilian populations are unable to or unwilling to exit a conflict zone, the armed parties still have a paramount duty to minimize the amount of harm that comes to both protected infrastructure and to civilian populations. This is particularly the case where the areas in question are marked and broadcasted as having a large civilian presence.

No mention of a warning in this article that I can see. Personally I think it would have been downright neighborly of the IDF to offer the Palestinians fair warning to evacuate the hospital before Hamas accidentally blew it up with a misfired rocket.

That was sarcasm because I do not actually believe it was an accident or that Hamas did it.

[loomer]

For those wondering - no, the warnings do not provide an effective shield for large-scale civilian casualties. Where civilian populations are unable to or unwilling to exit a conflict zone, the armed parties still have a paramount duty to minimize the amount of harm that comes to both protected infrastructure and to civilian populations. This is particularly the case where the areas in question are marked and broadcasted as having a large civilian presence.

No mention of a warning in this article that I can see. Personally I think it would have been downright neighborly of the IDF to offer the Palestinians fair warning to evacuate the hospital before Hamas accidentally blew it up with a misfired rocket.

That was sarcasm because I do not actually believe it was an accident or that Hamas did it.

The IDF issued blanket evacuation orders for the entire northern half of Gaza a few days ago and has reissued them in various forms since, including specific evacuation directions to hospitals. Said evacuation orders were a cruel farce as the WHO and MSF have both pointed out, but they did exist - and the reason I've been jumping up and down about them is because people will cling to the idea they create a shield against civilian deaths despite their implausible scope, time frames, and practical impossibility.

[MKSheppard]

And we're supposed to believe Hamas has rockets that big to throw around why?

They make propaganda videos?

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/ ... 6057908641
PIJ Saraya Al-Quds have released footage of their Badr-3 rocket preparations for launching towards Israel.

https://twitter.com/fab_hinz/status/1396402734715260928
The Badr 3 is an unguided rocket that was first introduced by Islamic Jihad in 2019. What make it stand out is its warhead with a weight of between 300 and 400kg (sources differ) which is much heavier than warheads of regular Palestinian rockets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBu7j-BNUAA&t=1s
سرايا القدس تعلن إطلاق صاروخها المطور "بدر3" وتقول إنها استخدمته في استهداف عسقلان
Saraya Al-Quds announces the launch of its advanced "Badr 3" missile and says it used it to target Ashkelon

[MKSheppard]

Some of the Hamas rockets are pretty big.



The Ayyash 250 in particular requires the use of DAVID'S SLING to intercept -- a much bigger, meaner ABM system than Iron Dome; and one (ayyash 250) was intercepted four days ago.

[MKSheppard]

https://twitter.com/yousuf_tw/status/17 ... 7968384106

It's looking from this video that the IDF fucked up when setting up their Iron Dome engagement zones in the system software -- if they had correctly entered a PROTECTED AREA/DENIED AREA into the software with the hospital, the battery would have waited to engage the missile until it was at a point where missile debris wouldn't fall onto the hospital.

Whoops.

[LadyTevar]

The hospital strike has a LOT of people up in arms, and SO FAR we have no idea what happened, and whose fault it is.

Until there is something more than Hamas said/IDF said, please keep recriminations to a minimum.

Gods willing, we will find the truth, and the guilty will be punished. Until then... mourn the dead, pity the living, and keep this thread on point.


Such as WHY Biden's meetings with the Arabic world leaders was cancelled. Do we know?

[MKSheppard]

https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/ ... 5463112983

(has screencaps of the Hamas telegram channel)

One minute before the Baptist Hospital in Gaza was hit, Hamas announced on its own Telegram channel that they were launching their strongest rockets at the northern Israeli city of Haifa. No interceptions or impacts were detected near Haifa.

Reminder 30% of Hamas rockets tend to misfire and land in Gaza.

The specific rocket that Hamas said that they were launching was the r160 which is one of the larger missiles in Hamas inventory.

The R160 is the Palestinian name for the Khaibar-1 also known as the Khyber-1, M-302 which is a Syrian-made 302mm unguided artillery rocket. It is a derivative of the Chinese WS-1 rocket. This rocket is slightly larger than a BM-21 Grad.

They also posted about 10 minutes before the hospital being hit on the official telegram page for Al-Qassam brigades that they where launching R160 rockets at Haifa

[Ralin]

Such as WHY Biden's meetings with the Arabic world leaders was cancelled. Do we know?

No, but seems like a safe guess that they're showing disapproval of the US's support for all this.

[MKSheppard]

https://twitter.com/OnlinePalEng/status ... 6599207391

Press report at hospital with zoom out showing scores of staged bodies for effect.

Even the Russians are more entertaining/less obviously posed in their media

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 0328046593

Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the fucking shells!

[loomer]

What's your point, Shep? I don't think anyone is disputing that the hospital bombing killed a fuckton of people, and I don't think anyone there is trying to claim that they just happened to land that way.

[MKSheppard]

Turns out that the hospital bombing didn't kill a fuckton of people after all.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678

Very lengthy thread with many photos.

Photos of the aftermath show that the vast majority of the damage is from fire. Only 3 cars show any clear sign of kinnetic/structural damage. And for two of them, the general structure remains intact - despite clear damage.

Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged.

...

Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site.

...

Next I want to address the claimed casualty count of 500+ killed, which seems widely inconsistent with the damage we can see. I am not doubting that civilians were killed, videos show the bodies collected in the hospital courtyard and I have no reason to doubt that.

It is also more than possible that there were many people in the area. And the casualties could be quite high, especially if people were out in the open and there was falling, burning fuel.

But 500's incredibly high number, honestly implausible. Overlaying the area of damage on Google Earth - keep in mind this is mostly from burning cars NOT the explosion - it is 228m2.

This is that sort of crowd density (assuming there were no survivors which is also implausible).

in July 2016 a truck bomb in Baghdad killed ~350, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2017, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed 500+, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2022, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed ~125, this is the damage it did.

Compare any of that to the above.

...

None of this absolves the IDF from the countless civilians it has killed in this aerial campaign. There is no excuse for the degree of civilian casualties that the IDF considers acceptable, nor of the siege tactics. And no one can deny the extent of devestation brought to Gaza.

But it seems extremely clear to me, that much (most (all)) of the initial reporting and discussion surrounding this explosion was inaccurate. The discourse and the reaction has quickly overtaken the facts and now it seems that the facts don't really matter.

It has also put me in the unenviable position of not being able to fully trust the numbers that come out of the Gazan Health Ministry, considering they are the only source providing numerical figures of the unquestionably numerous casualties in Gaza.

Jesus, even Russians are more competent (and/or amusing) in their propaganda....and that's horrifying.

Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where are the fucking shells!

[LadyTevar]

Again, I'm turning to the BBC with their VERIFY initiative for this information:

GAZA HOSPITAL: What video, pictures, and other evidence tells us

The blast
The explosion at the hospital happened at around 19:00 local time on Tuesday. A 20-second video which circulated on social media purporting to show the strike was the first significant piece of visual evidence to emerge of the incident.

In it, you can hear the whistling sound of an incoming projectile, followed by an explosion and a huge fire.

Live footage from the Al-Jazeera media network aired at 18:59 local time showed a bright light rising in the skies above Gaza. It is possibly from a rocket, which appears to explode or disintegrate. From the footage, a flash is seen far away, followed by a much larger explosion closer to the camera that we've geolocated.

Other footage which surfaced on social media channels showed what appears to be the same blast from different angles and distances.
We consulted experts to establish whether the available evidence - including the size of the explosion and the sounds heard beforehand - could be used to determine its cause.

So far the findings are inconclusive.

The evidence observed by BBC Verify is not consistent with what you would expect from a typical Israeli airstrike. For example, the absence of a large bomb crater.

J Andres Gannon, an assistant professor at Vanderbilt University, in the US, says the explosion appears to be small, meaning that the heat generated from the impact may have been caused by leftover rocket fuel rather than an explosion from a warhead.

Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) in the UK, agrees. While it is difficult to be sure at such an early stage, he says, the evidence looks like the explosion was caused by a failed rocket section hitting the car park and causing a fuel and propellant fire.

Mr Gannon says it is not possible to determine from the footage whether the projectile struck its intended target.

Several experts we spoke to were not willing to put forward a view on what happened.

Several photos go along with this, so I suggest following the link to look at it.
TL:DR -- Blast seems too small to be IDF missile. The bomb crater is also deemed too small to be IDF missile.

Visual evidence from the blast site
The BBC was able to match details of buildings and the layout of the Al Ahli hospital site with publicly available satellite imagery, to establish the hospital was the scene of the blast.

Based on available evidence, it appears the explosion happened in a courtyard which is part of the hospital site. Images of the ground after the blast do not show significant damage to surrounding hospital buildings. What the images do show includes scorch marks and burnt-out cars.

The hospital is owned and run by the Anglican Church.

Canon Richard Sewell, the dean of St George's College in Jerusalem, told the BBC that about 1,000 displaced people were sheltering in the courtyard when it was hit, and about 600 patients and staff were inside the building.

TL:DR Blast hit the COURTYARD of the Hospital, not the hospital itself. There were a lot of refugees sheltering in the courtyard, and they are the ones who are dead and injured.

Again -- there are photos that you should go see.

What we don't know yet
One of the most critical pieces of evidence is the nature of the crater left behind by the explosion.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) say that the absence of a large crater, or blast damage to adjacent buildings, proves that the explosion was not caused by its weapons.

You can see one small crater and we're seeing if any of the other marks represent other craters.

Another important part of missing evidence is missile fragments. Projectiles are often identifiable by the wreckage of their shell, and they can be used to determined the projectile's origin. But in this case, we have not seen that evidence.

Again... there are photos.
The crater they've identified is more like a wide pothole, but it is farely deep.

Odd that they haven't found missile fragments yet.

[LadyTevar]

I don't know how this is gonna shake out:

Biden Backs Israel's Account of Hospital Explosion
TLDR: Biden visited Tel Aviv. He stated that the hosptial explosion appears to be Palestinian, not IDF.

"Based on what I've seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you," he told Mr Netanyahu. "But there's a lot of people out there not sure so we have to overcome a lot of things."

[MKSheppard]

Yeah but that can change. Maybe in a decade or three Israel's allies will be less willing or able to have their back, and that could get bad for them if they also can't whoop all their neighbors on their own anymore.

You've won. You just don't know it yet.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/13/12056270 ... hamas-poll

In the US, only 48% of Gen Z/Millennials strongly support Israel in this, as opposed to 80%+ in Baby Boomerdom.

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2014/0729 ... poll-finds

On the whole, 35 percent of Americans believe Israel has responded appropriately to the conflict, and 15 percent say the nation has not gone far enough. Twenty-five percent, on the other hand, say Israel has overreacted.

Hispanics and Blacks again were less sympathetic to Israeli policy, with 35 and 36 percent, respectively, saying the nation had overreacted, while only 22 percent of whites shared this view.

What's the fastest growing demographic in the USA?

https://www.census.gov/library/visualiz ... d-pop.html

If current trends hold, 28% of US population (up from 19%) will be Hispanic by 2060.

Now, this can be changed -- 40-50-60 year projections are fuzzy and can be changed by black swan events. But the next 20 years are locked in and baked into the cake. Have fun Democrats, you wanted this.

[loomer]

Turns out that the hospital bombing didn't kill a fuckton of people after all.

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678

Very lengthy thread with many photos.

I would be careful about assuming this does not mean there were significant casualties, given that other - particularly OSINTTechnical, who's usually pretty even - osinters are reporting that the area struck had a lot of people sleeping in the struck parking lot area.

Meanwhile, Channel 4 is advancing criticism of the released audio and some other fine details of Israel's claim here. Together with the retracted claim of responsibility, the reported deliberate mistranslation of certain words in the audio for an English-speaking audience, using the wrong video first, the wrong timestamps issue - this is all shaping up to be a conspiracy theorist's dream.

The good news today is that a small amount of aid will be allowed through the Egyptian crossing at Rafah. Unfortunately, the amount is far too low (and cynically, will be delayed by the extensive damage caused by IDF shelling to the area and potentially under threat from further bombardments.)

HRW has also released an article that helpfully lays out the ways in which Israel's prosecution of the siege and blockade is in violation of IHL.

[MKSheppard]

https://unosat.org/products/3693

UNOSAT North Gaza Governorate Damage Assessment Analysis - 15 October 2023

UNOSAT's satellite imagery-based damage assessment detected damage and destruction to buildings within the area of interest in the North Gaza Governorate, Gaza Strip, based on an image collected on 15 October 2023 when compared to images collected on 1 May 2023, 10 May 2023, and 18 September 2023. According to satellite imagery analysis, UNOSAT identified 927 destroyed structure, 1216 severely damaged structures and 3121 moderately damaged structures, for a total of 5264 buildings. This corresponds to around 15% of the total structures in the North Gaza Governorate. One of the most affected area appears to be the one between Al Farata and Hai Abu Ghazala neighborhoods (inset 1). Among the affected structures, UNOSAT identified one school compound, namely the Beit Hanoun school, which eastern wing got severely damaged. Additionally, UNOSAT identified 271 affected road sections, either by impact craters or by debris. This is a preliminary analysis and has not yet been validated in the field.

[Rogue 9]

https://twitter.com/yousuf_tw/status/17 ... 7968384106

It's looking from this video that the IDF fucked up when setting up their Iron Dome engagement zones in the system software -- if they had correctly entered a PROTECTED AREA/DENIED AREA into the software with the hospital, the battery would have waited to engage the missile until it was at a point where missile debris wouldn't fall onto the hospital.

Whoops.

I thought Iron Dome didn't engage in the boost phase.

[MKSheppard]

I thought Iron Dome didn't engage in the boost phase.

Funny thing is, I actually got into a fight on another board about this; with them calling me an anti-israel grot over this.

Distances for intercepting rockets from Gaza are really short.

One of the requirements that Iron Dome had to meet back in 2008 when they were getting ready to build them was a flight distance of 850m from the Gaza Strip to Sderot.

The IDF said they "upgraded" Iron Dome to deal with that, before the system was deployed in 2011. Given that the TAMIR interceptor weighs 90 kg...about the same weight as the AIM-9 Sidewinder....and given that Chaparral (Ground Launched Sidewinder) has a maximum range of 5000 meters.....

Draw a map from Sderot to Gaza, and you can see that if the Iron Dome battery is cued early enough it can intercept over Gaza.