UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Khaat]

I'm thinkin' (no actual experience, so "completely uninformed") that they forgot to take off the cardboard collar around the base before mounting the rocket (the one that holds the rocket fins against the tube during shipping).

[Lord Revan]

I'm thinkin' (no actual experience, so "completely uninformed") that they forgot to take off the cardboard collar around the base before mounting the rocket (the one that holds the rocket fins against the tube during shipping).

Honestly that wouldn't surprise me at all. Though if that's not the case to reply to Broomstick's question most modern weapon systems are designed to work a specific way so there might poorly fitted part that prevent the rocket from being mounted but once it's in those parts stay in the launch tube or at least that's how it's suppose to function.

[Highlord Laan]

According to some others that apparently know what they're looking at, those are Iranian-made rockets for the Grad rocket launcher. Thing is? The Iranian grads are about half a millimeter bigger since they design and build their own. The Norks? A full millimeter slimmer, since they copy an older version. All three systems are still called "Grad" though.

Now, I don't know if all of that is true. But if it is, it's hilarious.

[LaCroix]

where you getting the 3rd mobilisation from?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-10-03/

Annual conscription drive... On paper, these are not to be sent to the front, but even if they don't violate that (again), it frees up other manpower ..

[LaCroix]

Holy mother of armchair generals.

Russia just started an all out assault of Avdivka..

This must be a direct political intervention of someone who looked at a map and said - this town is already 3 quarters surrounded - storm it with all forces, already.

And then they walk off, muttering about incompetent generals.

Thing is, that town has been 'encircled' ever since the war started. The defences the ukrainians have built there make the russian sourovikin line look like a kindergarten playground. And you have to approach through wide open fields.

Today, the generals did as told (even they aren't that stupid to come up wit such a plan), and tried to throw everything at it, to have at least some chance, and so nobody can say they didn't try hard enough...

Airplanes started bombing at 5, and then the arty threw everything they found to fit into the barrels at the Ukrainians.

Then they rolled in with every battallion they could scrape together what was left of it. Heard something about 4000 troops, plus every vehicle that turned over and had fuel left.

Result?
No definitive ground loss (ukrainians always fall back, cluster and other shells come in, then the ukrainians retake the positions)

About a thousand russians dead, don't think anyone else not wounded, yet. 30 tanks scrapped, about 90 AFV and APC wrecked, 20 or so arty neutralized, one aa system done, and one plane downed. And that's just the photo-confirmend stuff...

Pretty much one weeks losses in just one day, and the they seem to still send everyone who can move back in (or are funnelling their other reserves into it). Wouldn't be surprised if the troops start shooting their officers, soon.

Either the generals are super desperate and simply hope the Ukrainians run out of bullets, or Putin has given an 'ex cathedra' order that Avdivka must be 'Bakmuthed' for PR, fuck the cost.

[Lord Revan]

According to some others that apparently know what they're looking at, those are Iranian-made rockets for the Grad rocket launcher. Thing is? The Iranian grads are about half a millimeter bigger since they design and build their own. The Norks? A full millimeter slimmer, since they copy an older version. All three systems are still called "Grad" though.

Now, I don't know if all of that is true. But if it is, it's hilarious.

I dunno if it's true but certainly makes sense, sometimes you can do tiny changes that might not even change version number of a weapon system but the 2 production batches are incompatible with each other (and sometimes it's even stuff build in different factories especially before modern automatization)

[Ralin]

According to some others that apparently know what they're looking at, those are Iranian-made rockets for the Grad rocket launcher. Thing is? The Iranian grads are about half a millimeter bigger since they design and build their own. The Norks? A full millimeter slimmer, since they copy an older version. All three systems are still called "Grad" though.

Now, I don't know if all of that is true. But if it is, it's hilarious.

I dunno if it's true but certainly makes sense, sometimes you can do tiny changes that might not even change version number of a weapon system but the 2 production batches are incompatible with each other (and sometimes it's even stuff build in different factories especially before modern automatization)

Yeah I know we're all looking for lol Russia incompetent stories but that does sound like a thing that happens.

So... What happens if they try to fire it?

[Jub]

Yeah I know we're all looking for lol Russia incompetent stories but that does sound like a thing that happens.

So... What happens if they try to fire it?

That depends. It might not even ignite if they didn't get it in far enough for the contacts to connect, it could fire its engine stuck in the tube but not explode, it could fire its engine and then blow up, or it could fire almost normally. It's tough to say without full details on the system but I can say I want to be nowhere near a Russian team loading or firing one of those things with or without them ramming rockets into tubes.

[Broomstick]

Either the generals are super desperate and simply hope the Ukrainians run out of bullets, or Putin has given an 'ex cathedra' order that Avdivka must be 'Bakmuthed' for PR, fuck the cost.

Wonder if someone thought they could get a quick victory in while the world was distracted with what's going on in the south of Israel. Guess not.

[wautd]

Yeah I know we're all looking for lol Russia incompetent stories but that does sound like a thing that happens.

So... What happens if they try to fire it?

or it could fire almost normally.

I'd imagine that if it's still able to fire, the rockets would have a considerably lower range due to the additional energy required to shoot out of the tube, possibly hitting their own troops or a town.

it could fire its engine stuck in the tube but not explode

If they'd fire them all at once, I wonder if the system gets converted into a truck-shaped suicide drone

[KraytKing]

On the subject of the conscription and the assault on Avdiivka: the 25th Combined Arms Army is the unit undertaking the heavy lifting here. It is a relatively new formation that was supposed to be in reserve or at least in defensive posture until at least December. Recruitment advertising claimed that the 25th would not see front line deployment until 2024. So that certainly contributed to the enormous losses, including that one recovery vehicle that drove off a bridge and was for some reason leading a column, and it also is likely the fate of any newly mobilized Russian units.

Losses yesterday were just as severe as Tuesday: nearly a thousand dead, forty tanks, forty APCs and IFVs. As usual, loss data is an approximation. What I find significant is the level of air support dedicated to this operation: several attack helicopters were recorded conducting direct fire operations, as opposed to pitch-up rocket attacks, and fixed-wing aircraft were noted as well. This is a big move, not a shaping attack, not a distraction from Robotyne or Kharkiv. Russia has been EXTREMELY cautious with air assets since the beginning of the war, and being committed means someone holds this assault in high regard. It could lend credence to the idea that this is a politically-directed attack. That would also be informed by the use of a low-readiness formation instead of the assault units still fighting reactively.

Interested to see where the next few days lead. If the assault keeps up, I do not expect substantial Ukrainian tactical defeat, but rather a catastrophic attrition of Russian armor. I think it is fairly likely that the assault ends in the next couple of days as a pointless failure, but it could possibly become the next Bakhmut if the Russian political will is behind it.

[LadyTevar]

Odd... nothing on the BBC yet about it, but Newsweek had an article on it.

Russian Suffering Colossal Losses in "Kamakazi" Avdivka Assault

Russia reportedly suffered major equipment losses in a battle for the Ukrainian-held eastern Donbas town of Avdiivka on Wednesday, and lost 990 soldiers, 42 tanks, and 32 artillery systems overall in one day, according to Kyiv's military.

Videos circulating on social media showed what one online commenter described as a "Russian kamikaze attempt" to take the largely destroyed town which resulted in a large number of Russian tanks and equipment being destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. Newsweek couldn't immediately verify the authenticity of the videos.
Russian forces "launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast" on Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said.

Russia reportedly suffered major equipment losses in a battle for the Ukrainian-held eastern Donbas town of Avdiivka on Wednesday, and lost 990 soldiers, 42 tanks, and 32 artillery systems overall in one day, according to Kyiv's military.

Videos circulating on social media showed what one online commenter described as a "Russian kamikaze attempt" to take the largely destroyed town which resulted in a large number of Russian tanks and equipment being destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. Newsweek couldn't immediately verify the authenticity of the videos.

Russian forces "launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast" on Tuesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said.

Avdiivka, which had a pre-war population of at least 30,000, is located about 90 kilometers (56 miles) south of Bakhmut and just north of Russian-occupied Donetsk. Some 2,000 civilians remain in the city that has been on the frontline of the Donbas conflict since 2014, when President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the southern Crimean peninsula from Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk started combating Kyiv's forces.

The area has been the scene of intense fighting since Kyiv launched its counteroffensive in early June.

A video of the destruction was posted by the "Jay in Kyiv" X (formerly Twitter) account, linked to the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation, which raises money to buy equipment for the Ukrainian army.
"One from many videos coming out of what's amounting to a Russian kamikaze attempt to take the largely destroyed town of Avdiivka," the X user wrote. "Russians just gunning it through minefields, costing the 35 tanks and 91 APC's just yesterday."

Geolocated footage from October 10 and 11 confirms that Russian troops advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka, the ISW said.

The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that a grouping of up to three Russian battalions with tank and armored vehicle support intensified offensive operations near Avdiivka.

According to figures published by Ukraine's General Staff on Facebook on Thursday, 42 Russian tanks were destroyed in the past 24 hours, bringing the total Russian tank losses since the war began last year to 4,905. Independent sources give numbers that are more conservative than Kyiv's, and Russia doesn't publish figures on its military losses.
It's not clear how many of the tanks were destroyed in clashes in Avdiivka.

"Geolocated footage shows that Russian gains around Avdiivka are concentrated to the southwest of Avdiivka, and Russian forces have not completed an operational encirclement of the settlement and will likely struggle to do so if that is their intent," the think tank said.
It added that Avdiivka is also a notoriously well-fortified and defended Ukrainian stronghold, which will likely complicate Russian forces' ability to closely approach or fully capture the settlement.

"As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces likely intend attacks in the Avdiivka area to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from redeploying to other areas of the front. However, Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixing operation, and they are unlikely to unduly commit Ukrainian manpower to this axis."

[LaCroix]

Yeah, the crazy suicide Zergrush goes on.

This is either a prestige project or a desperate attempt to draw forces off the Ukrainian offensive forces. There is nothing to be gained here, not even important roadways or anything. Even if they were bein successful, the UA forces would just leave that ruin of rubble and simply enjoy a significantly shortened frontline. There is NO way they would divert forces into that pocket to hold it.

All Russia is achieving is to burn up new formations - they are not even getting combat experience - you need to return home to get that effect.

Especially worrying is the massive air operation - even without the rather good UA air defence, this leads to massive attrition in the already undermaintained russian airforce - if they keep that up, we will see airframes falling out of the sky - or simply no longer being sent because they are not airworthy.

There are reports that the Pavel Derzhavin (corvette, 100m size) was damaged in the black sea - apparently they somehow ran into mines they were laying

[LaCroix]

3rd day of Avdivka assault, same result as the second... 3 days and about 200 tanks and 200 combat vehicles destroyed, 2000+ dead russians.

Ground gained? Less than needed to bury said troops... And this is not even done yet, and the Ukrainians are still just enjoying the shooting gallery and have not actively responded.

Chances are the Russians will lose some ground there, soon.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

A bit of a mixed bag, the Ukrainians are running out of artillery shells for the British-supplied howitzers, forcing them to switch to old Soviet-era weapons because they have the ammo.

Harrowing moment Russian soldier avoids Ukraine grenade only to land directly on a mine

This is the moment a Russian soldier avoids a Ukranian grenade only to land directly on a mine.

The hapless Russian is seen diving for cover as the grenade falls from the sky.

After narrowly avoiding the grenade, which explodes upon impact, the soldier trips over a hidden land mine.

Smoke then billows up into the sky as the camera pans out to reveal the destructive aftermath.

Vladimir Putin is poised to face yet more embarrassing setbacks on the front line in the coming months.

A senior US defence official said on Thursday that the US has been able to improvise and build a new missile launcher from radars and other parts contributed by allies and partners that it plans to ship to Ukraine this autumn.

The system will be able to launch AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles, which the US announced Wednesday it will send to Ukraine in the latest aid package.

At the same time, US engineers have been able to work with Ukraine to modify a Soviet-era Buk air defence launcher so that it can fire RIM-7 missiles, which the US has in large quantities.

Ukraine has a number of the Buk systems, but its supply of missiles has been dwindling.

Both of those systems, the official said, are moving to Ukraine this autumn, in an effort to meet critical air defence needs as it struggles to retake territory the Russians have seized and gain a solid battlefield footing as the muddy season hits ahead of the winter freeze.

The official spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity to provide a battle update.

The innovations have given the US another way to pour weapons into Ukraine, even though Congress has not approved any new funding for the war.

A small but vocal contingent of Republican lawmakers opposes sending US money overseas for the fight against Russia and forced its removal from a temporary spending measure that prevented a US government shutdown on Oct. 1.

[wautd]

apparently they somehow ran into mines they were laying

It shows the utter disregard for civilian lives that Russia's state has. The Black sea is international waters, and it seems only a matter of time when a civilian ship hits a Russian mine

[LadyTevar]

apparently they somehow ran into mines they were laying

It shows the utter disregard for civilian lives that Russia's state has. The Black sea is international waters, and it seems only a matter of time when a civilian ship hits a Russian mine

Yes, it is only a matter of time, and then we'll see how Russia tries to spin that.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

A bit of good news from Poland.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... st-updates

Poland publishes final election numbers as results suggest opposition parties could form coalition – Europe live

08.50 BST
Polish final election numbers published
We now know the final outcome of Poland’s Sunday election. While the ruling Law and Justice party got the most votes, the election was a defeat for the current government: opposition parties performed so well that they have a path toward forming a new ruling coalition.

Law and Justice (PiS): 35.38%

Civic Coalition (KO): 30.7%

Third Way: 14.4%

The Left (Lewica): 8.61%

Konfederacja: 7.16%

In short, Law and Justice has been kicked off the top spot, and it looks like there's no way it can coalition its way back into power; not if Civic Coalition combines with Third Way anyway. Barring something bizarre happening, Polish support for Ukraine should continue.

[Highlord Laan]

Well, now. Ukraine has ATACMs and is already doing the lords work.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine on Tuesday claimed to have carried out one of the most destructive attacks on Russian air assets since the beginning of the war, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying the assault used longer-range ballistic missiles donated by the United States.

Zelenskyy’s announcement came hours after a U.S. official revealed that the longer-range ballistic missiles sought for months by Kyiv and promised by President Joe Biden had been delivered quietly and are in battlefield use.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces claimed it destroyed nine Russian helicopters at two airfields in Russia-occupied regions in a nighttime attack on targets in eastern and southern Ukraine.

It also hit military equipment, an air-defense system, ammunition warehouses and runways, a statement said. Dozens of Russian military personnel were injured in the attack codenamed Operation Dragonfly, it said.

Several U.S. officials said that Washington provided Ukraine with a small number of the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, making good on a promise made by Biden last month.

Zelenskyy offered “special thanks” to the United States for sending the ATACMS. “Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented,” Zelenskyy said in his usual evening address to the nation, saying the ATACMS “have proven themselves.”

The weapons development piles pressure on the Kremlin as both sides look for battlefield advantages ahead of winter and what is shaping up as a protracted war of attrition.

While some versions of the missiles can go as far as about 180 miles (about 300 kilometers), the ones sent to Ukraine have a shorter range and carry cluster munitions, which, when fired, open in the air, releasing hundreds of bomblets rather than a single warhead. According to a U.S. official, the ones delivered to Ukraine have a maximum range of a bit more than 100 miles (roughly 160 kilometers).

The Ukrainian statement didn’t say how the targets were hit. Russian authorities didn’t comment on the report. It wasn’t immediately possible to verify the two sides’ battlefield claims.

The airfields, in the Luhansk and Berdyansk regions, are located behind the front line. The Russian military apparently thought that they were at a safe distance from Ukrainian attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia is throwing more units into its effort to take a key eastern Ukraine city, Western analysts say, after apparent setbacks that have slowed its dayslong onslaught.

The attempt to storm Avdiivka, a heavily defended city that stands in the way of Moscow’s ambition of securing control of the entire Donetsk region, is Moscow’s most significant offensive operation in Ukraine since the start of the year, the U.K. defense ministry said Tuesday.

The Kremlin’s push to claim Avdiivka comes after months of fending off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which Kyiv launched some 16 months after Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The Russian forces deployed to Avdiivka are likely making slow progress and sustaining high casualties in what is proving a costly effort, the U.K. defense ministry said on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

The pace of Russia’s attack on the heavily fortified target has reportedly slowed in recent days since its launch last week, a Washington-based think tank said.

Russian officials made no immediate comment on developments around Avdiivka.

Citing the Ukrainian General Staff, the Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces pushed back 22 Russian attacks on Monday, down from 30 reported assaults the previous day. Kyiv officials said Russia mounted up to 60 attacks per day in the middle of last week.

The Ukrainian defense ministry said Tuesday that Russia is nevertheless still attempting to encircle the city, with 10 attacks over the previous 24 hours.

The U.K. defense ministry said Russia’s effort to overrun Avdiivka “looks increasingly unlikely in the short term.”
___

Lolita C. Baldor in Washington contributed to this report.

The pure cope and seethe from the horde was both expected and discarded.

[Gandalf]

Horde? Is this like the orcs thing again?

[Lord Revan]

Horde? Is this like the orcs thing again?

Sure sounds like, since I suspect Laan isn't referring to a literal horde of people but to the Horde from Warcraft.

EDIT:When it comes to this conflict it's monumentally important to hate Russia not Russians as in hate the actions of the current government of the Russian Federation but not to assume or imply that Russians as an ethnic group are predestined to evil and thus worthy of only scorn and using slurs goes the second.

[Ralin]

Horde? Is this like the orcs thing again?

Sure sounds like, since I suspect Laan isn't referring to a literal horde of people but to the Horde from Warcraft.

EDIT:When it comes to this conflict it's monumentally important to hate Russia not Russians as in hate the actions of the current government of the Russian Federation but not to assume or imply that Russians as an ethnic group are predestined to evil and thus worthy of only scorn and using slurs goes the second.

Have you considered though that he's really tough and badass and that everyone complaining is just seething because we're shrieking keyboard warriors who can't handle our beloved Russia getting its face kicked in?

I'd assumed the horde bit was a reference to something like this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Horde

But as noted yes, he does have a history of being pretty fucking racist about this and seems determined to experiment with what dehumanizing terms he can use without triggering the mods

[LadyTevar]

Horde? Is this like the orcs thing again?

Sure sounds like, since I suspect Laan isn't referring to a literal horde of people but to the Horde from Warcraft.

EDIT:When it comes to this conflict it's monumentally important to hate Russia not Russians as in hate the actions of the current government of the Russian Federation but not to assume or imply that Russians as an ethnic group are predestined to evil and thus worthy of only scorn and using slurs goes the second.

Have you considered though that he's really tough and badass and that everyone complaining is just seething because we're shrieking keyboard warriors who can't handle our beloved Russia getting its face kicked in?

I'd assumed the horde bit was a reference to something like this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Horde

But as noted yes, he does have a history of being pretty fucking racist about this and seems determined to experiment with what dehumanizing terms he can use without triggering the mods

Be careful yourselves, you're walking a thin line.

Now, I would call it a "horde" as in a "horde of people bitching". No Orcs, no insults, just the now-common definition of a large number of people

[Gandalf]

What's the thin line we're all walking?

[Solauren]

What's the thin line we're all walking?

Violation of rules against racism I would imagine.