UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[LadyTevar]

What's the thin line we're all walking?

Violation of rules against racism I would imagine.

Exactly

[Ralin]

What's the thin line we're all walking?

Violation of rules against racism I would imagine.

Exactly

We're coming close to doing a racism ? Me, Gandalf and Lord Revan? Really?

Against who?

[LadyTevar]

Violation of rules against racism I would imagine.

Exactly

We're coming close to doing a racism ? Me, Gandalf and Lord Revan? Really?

Against who?

Refering to Russians as "Orcs". Now... Please move on.

[MKSheppard]

Drone tactics are evolving rapidly.

With no active Counter Drone system (C-UAS) widely deployed, everything is now a target for aerial drones:

For the IDF...drones dropping PG-7VR Tandem Charge HEAT warheads onto the thin roof armor of their Merkavas

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/sta ... 0655285375

https://twitter.com/zhang_heqing/status ... 9315120142

This Merkava Mk3 MBT withstood the hit of a drone dropping PG-7VR munition. The grenade hit directly between two ammunition racks.

A little bit more to the left or right, and that HEAT jet would have hit stowed ammo and...

In the sudan...drones drop mortar shells

https://twitter.com/africaken1/status/1 ... 4419082256

quadcopter drone drop a mortar bomb, on unsuspecting Sudanese rapid support forces militia, sleeping on a rooftop of a building

IDF troops have also been hit with mortar bombs -- there's video of IDF troops sheltering behind a vehicle, only for a HAMAS drone to fly over them and drop a mortar bomb on them from the first days of the current middle eastern conflict.

Abandoned tanks have to be recovered ASAP or else they're destroyed.

https://twitter.com/dronefare/status/17 ... 2923910360

Video from the
@DefenceU
showing a drone operator using a drone to remotely drop a mortar bomb in a Russian Tank through the open hatch

This BTW is like what happened on Okinawa 80~ years ago. If Shermans weren't recovered immediately -- at night, Japanese infiltrators would move up and toss explosives into them.

Drones are moving into fully autonomous mode, capable of operating with no operator.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... 0426b866da

Ukrainian developers have confirmed that their drones are now carrying out autonomous strikes on Russian forces without a human operator. This is the first time such drones are known to have been used, as UN allegations about autonomous attacks in Libya in 2020 remain unproven.

The Saker Scout drones can find, identify and attack 64 different types of Russian ‘military objects’ on their own, operating in areas where radio jamming blocks communication and prevents other drones from working.

The quadcopter Saker Scout, came into service last month and can carry three kilos of bombs to a range of around 12 kilometres. Small drones operated by remote control have proved extremely effective as bombers with modified RKG-3 anti-tank grenades or RPG warheads and can destroy even heavy tanks.

Ground Drones -- UGVs are being used now to lay mines and re-mine previously cleared areas under fire:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/20/ ... roop-said/

On top of that, recently released footage showed operations of Ukrainian mine-laying drones, which were produced on the basis of simple radio-controlled cars. These drones are deploying anti-tank mines not only as close to Russian positions as possible but also on the trails made by the Russian tanks to ensure that if the next assault unit tries to use the safe and tested route, it will for sure get on a mine. Such a specific use allows Ukrainians to respond to new developments as they unfold and bring Russians a lot of headaches.

https://twitter.com/OSINTNic/status/1714752095952212371

Russian drone watches a Ukrainian ground drone lay anti-tank mines (English subtitles)

There are unconfirmed rumors right now that the Russians are using cargo drone ground vehicles for autonomous resupply of ground forces; but no imagery has shown up yet.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Oh yay
! Automated drones are on the battlefield.
That's a line I'm so glad to be crossed. At least no-one has deployed my automated flying minefield yet.

Will the IDF catch up with these developments?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia recruits prisoners for Ukraine war as Putin replicates Wagner

Russia has taken the wheel from Wagner as the Kremlin has recruited up to 100,000 prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

The practice was a trademark move of the late mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who filled his group’s ranks with convicted criminals.

The army unit, commonly known as Storm-Z, is reportedly seen as a disposable force in Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation”.

It comes as the Russian prison population has dropped from an estimated 420,000 to around 266,000, according to deputy minister Vsevolod Vukolov, who disclosed the figures earlier this month.

Russian state-controlled media reported that Storm-Z squads exist, that they took part in intense battles and some of their members received medals for bravery, but it has not disclosed how they are formed, or the losses they take.

While the Russian defence ministry has never acknowledged creating Storm-Z units, the first reports of their existence emerged in April when the Institute for the Study of War cited what it said appeared to be a leaked Russian military report on the formation of the squads.

RTVI, a Russian news website, said Storm-Z “is the same scheme as with the [Wagner] private military company. Prisoners sign contracts with the defence ministry, and after completing them they can go home or continue serving”.

However, a Russian soldier who fought alongside members of the penal squad told Reuters that Storm-Z fighters “are just meat”.

The soldier, from army unit no. 40318 who was deployed near Bakhmut in May and June, said he’d given medical treatment to a group of six or seven wounded Storm-Z fighters on the battlefield.

In doing so, he had disobeyed an order from a commander - whose name he didn’t know - to leave the men. He said he didn’t know why the commander gave the order, but claimed that it typified how Storm-Z fighters were considered of lesser value than ordinary troops by officers.

The soldier, who requested anonymity because he feared prosecution in Russia for publicly discussing the war, said he had sympathy for the men’s plight: “If the commandants catch anyone with the smell of alcohol on their breath, then they immediately send them to the Storm squads.”

The UK ministry of defence addressed the emergence of the penal squads in its update on 24 October, saying: “Russia largely continues to rely on specially designated ‘Shtorm-Z’ units for local offensive operations in Ukraine.”

It said: “Multiple accounts suggest the units are given the lowest priority for logistical and medical support, while repeatedly being ordered to attack.”

The intelligence update added that the squads were “likely first fielded in 2022” and they highlight “the extreme difficulty Russia has in generating combat infantry capable of conducting effective offensive operations”.

Using convicted criminals as cannon fodder. Yay or nay?

[Zaune]

Depends what they were doing a stretch for, I guess. Someone who got sent down for petty theft or getting into a barfight isn't necessarily going to make a bad soldier, someone who got done for committing a violent robbery or domestic abuse not so much. Sadists or people with anger issues should not be entrusted with live ammunition.

And I would like to believe the Russians still have enough institutional competence to recognise that much, but I don't suppose the odds are very good.

[Solauren]

Depends what they were doing a stretch for, I guess. Someone who got sent down for petty theft or getting into a barfight isn't necessarily going to make a bad soldier, someone who got done for committing a violent robbery or domestic abuse not so much. Sadists or people with anger issues should not be entrusted with live ammunition.

And I would like to believe the Russians still have enough institutional competence to recognise that much, but I don't suppose the odds are very good.

Russia has been doing that for a LONG time.
i.e
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shtrafbat
The Soviets were doing it in World War 2.

Something interesting to note;
from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_p ... tary_units

Under the Wagner model, if prisoners can survive a six-month term at the frontline, they are released into Russian society and given a pardon for their crimes. Many of the released men are hardened criminals. Russians fear that the released men will continue to commit more crimes.

In August 2023, a convicted criminal freed after fighting with Wagner was arrested on accusations of stabbing six people to death in the town of Derevyannoye [ru] in Russia's Republic of Karelia.

Olga Romanova of Russia Behind Bars said that as a result of this policy, "There are no more crimes, and no more punishments. Anything is permissible now, and this brings very far-reaching consequences for any country."[4]

So all a harden criminal has to do is survive 6 months in the war, which is very possible, and they're free no matter what they did.
Then if they do it again, they just consider it 'vacation over', and go back to war!

Yeah.

[LaCroix]

OK, we got something weird going on...

There were reports of Putin having a cardiac arrest, full program,found spasming on the floor, etc.
Some blogger who cites having a contact into Putins life...

And being treated in his Mansion's hospital (yes, it has a hospital wing - you think he would go into a hospital for normal people if he were ill - he has his own)

And now the same blogger reports that he died today, doctors are held inside the Mansion to prevent news getting out, and everybody is in panic and infighting, trying to sort out the succession.

These rumors have been officially refuted (which is usually a good way to confirm them in Russia.)

But not by Putin.
who has not been seen, anywhere, for a few days...

Soo...

[LadyTevar]

OK, we got something weird going on...

There were reports of Putin having a cardiac arrest, full program,found spasming on the floor, etc.
Some blogger who cites having a contact into Putins life...

And being treated in his Mansion's hospital (yes, it has a hospital wing - you think he would go into a hospital for normal people if he were ill - he has his own)

And now the same blogger reports that he died today, doctors are held inside the Mansion to prevent news getting out, and everybody is in panic and infighting, trying to sort out the succession.

These rumors have been officially refuted (which is usually a good way to confirm them in Russia.)

But not by Putin.
who has not been seen, anywhere, for a few days...

Soo...

Sooo.... it will be at least a week or more before any verson of 'the truth' hits the news. I'm sure that blogger's posts are getting looked at hard by both News Agencies and the spy agencies of every single nation that has one of note.

There's going to be suggestions of assassination via poison or other methods as well, because no one will be able to believe Putin simply Died of Natural Causes. Because the Great Leader Putin couldn't die of a simple Infarction. Someone had to take him out, and whomever takes over in his place is going to be the #1 Suspect for decades to come.
Unless they can manage to believably foster it off on "Wagner taking Revenge".

[bilateralrope]

If true, we get to find out how many succession plans Putin told people about and who is willing to follow them.

[LadyTevar]

If true, we get to find out how many succession plans Putin told people about and who is willing to follow them.

You mean like "I'm dead, fire all the nukes pointed at Ukraine now"?
Or "IF I'm dead, these are the people most likely behind it, kill them first"?

[LaCroix]

And while we wait, it is time to rewatch "The death of Stalin"

[bilateralrope]

If true, we get to find out how many succession plans Putin told people about and who is willing to follow them.

You mean like "I'm dead, fire all the nukes pointed at Ukraine now"?
Or "IF I'm dead, these are the people most likely behind it, kill them first"?

I was more thinking that there are several documents stating who gets to rule Russia next. All naming different people.

[Lord Revan]

If true, we get to find out how many succession plans Putin told people about and who is willing to follow them.

You mean like "I'm dead, fire all the nukes pointed at Ukraine now"?
Or "IF I'm dead, these are the people most likely behind it, kill them first"?

I was more thinking that there are several documents stating who gets to rule Russia next. All naming different people.

I don't really see Putin naming successors as that would give a motive for those people to kill him, better to give implications without explicitly naming anyone, thus no one wants to kill Putin as they won't know if their enemies would end up in power then.

[Ralin]

Wouldn't the secession plan be written into the actual constitution of the Russian Federation?

Like sure there are behind the scenes deals about who gets whose seat later, but presumably stuff like who becomes president is public knowledge?

[Lord Revan]

Wouldn't the secession plan be written into the actual constitution of the Russian Federation?

Like sure there are behind the scenes deals about who gets whose seat later, but presumably stuff like who becomes president is public knowledge?

It depends it could be that there's no order of secession written into to the constitution because again Putin didn't want to give anyone a clear reason to assassinate him.

It's not like a clear order of secession is mandatory when you write a constitution.

EDIT: IIRC US constitution doesn't have the order of secession either but is written into other laws and directives.

[Sidewinder]

Wouldn't the secession plan be written into the actual constitution of the Russian Federation?

Like sure there are behind the scenes deals about who gets whose seat later, but presumably stuff like who becomes president is public knowledge?

It depends it could be that there's no order of secession written into to the constitution because again Putin didn't want to give anyone a clear reason to assassinate him.

It's not like a clear order of secession is mandatory when you write a constitution.

EDIT: IIRC US constitution doesn't have the order of secession either but is written into other laws and directives.

The US Constitution DOES have an order of succession. According to the 25th Amendment, the Vice President succeeds if the President cannot serve his term of office; if the Vice President cannot, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives succeeds; if the Speaker cannot, then the President pro tempore of the Senate (who is chosen to serve as an acting Vice President, if the Vice President must serve as President of the United States and thus, cannot serve his duty as President of the Senate) succeeds; if the President pro tempore cannot, then a Secretary of a Department of federal government succeeds, in order of the Department's seniority, i.e., with the Secretary of State, then the Secretary of the Treasury, then the Secretary of Defense, then the Attorney General (Secretary of the Department of Justice), then the...

[Zaune]

Make what you will of the fact that Homeland Security, the department whose responsibility is among other things to prevent the US from needing to go down this list due to enemy action, comes dead last.

[Bedlam]

Make what you will of the fact that Homeland Security, the department whose responsibility is among other things to prevent the US from needing to go down this list due to enemy action, comes dead last.

I make of it that they are the most recently founded department and the succession is in the order of creation.

[Zaune]

Oh, I know. It just amuses me that they're stuck getting picked last, especially because they're the department I would bet most heavily on being behind an inside job.

(Can you tell I just got around to watching Designated Survivor?)

[Lord Revan]

Oh, I know. It just amuses me that they're stuck getting picked last, especially because they're the department I would bet most heavily on being behind an inside job.

(Can you tell I just got around to watching Designated Survivor?)

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if part of the motivation to put Department of Homeland Security where it is in the order of succession it to "say" to the director of said department, "there's too much risk in you trying to slaughter your way to White House so don't try anything".

[LaCroix]

Today, a Russian Minesweeper vessel did it's duty and removed one Russian mine from the Sevastopol waters.

[Rogue 9]

Oh, I know. It just amuses me that they're stuck getting picked last, especially because they're the department I would bet most heavily on being behind an inside job.

(Can you tell I just got around to watching Designated Survivor?)

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if part of the motivation to put Department of Homeland Security where it is in the order of succession it to "say" to the director of said department, "there's too much risk in you trying to slaughter your way to White House so don't try anything".

In an advanced democracy like the United States, trying a coup of that nature has a bad risk/reward ratio no matter what. A true believer ideologue (see the MAGA caucus) might be willing to try it anyway, but a calculating, rational actor isn't going to go for it because what do you get out of it compared to the risk of death or prison?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Oh, I know. It just amuses me that they're stuck getting picked last, especially because they're the department I would bet most heavily on being behind an inside job.

(Can you tell I just got around to watching Designated Survivor?)

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if part of the motivation to put Department of Homeland Security where it is in the order of succession it to "say" to the director of said department, "there's too much risk in you trying to slaughter your way to White House so don't try anything".

In an advanced democracy like the United States, trying a coup of that nature has a bad risk/reward ratio no matter what. A true believer ideologue (see the MAGA caucus) might be willing to try it anyway, but a calculating, rational actor isn't going to go for it because what do you get out of it compared to the risk of death or prison?

Last time they tried, 5 people died. Considering the thousands of rioters present it's amazing it didn't go into double if not triple figures. Which is considerably more likely in Russia if someone made a serious attempt at it.