UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Rogue 9]

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if part of the motivation to put Department of Homeland Security where it is in the order of succession it to "say" to the director of said department, "there's too much risk in you trying to slaughter your way to White House so don't try anything".

In an advanced democracy like the United States, trying a coup of that nature has a bad risk/reward ratio no matter what. A true believer ideologue (see the MAGA caucus) might be willing to try it anyway, but a calculating, rational actor isn't going to go for it because what do you get out of it compared to the risk of death or prison?

Last time they tried, 5 people died. Considering the thousands of rioters present it's amazing it didn't go into double if not triple figures. Which is considerably more likely in Russia if someone made a serious attempt at it.

Even given the frightening prospect of the January 6 coup succeeding, what would the average insurrectionist have gotten out of it that they didn't already have? The Q-Anon Shaman dude was not going to get some high position in a prospective Trump dictatorship. And Trump himself might have remained President - though likely not for long - but had he done none of that bullshit and just gone quietly off to plan his next campaign, he'd have continued to be a rich guy living the high life of his choosing, rather than facing 91 criminal indictments. Coups are worth the risk if not doing the coup means you live a miserable existence. If you already have healthcare, education, quality of life, why would you take that kind of massive risk to gain what you already have? And even having done that and succeeded, you still run the awful risk of being culled after the coup's success, so even in victory you might lose it all. This is Dictator's Handbook 101 stuff, here.

[Tribble]

IMO Trump’s mistake was that he wasn’t willing to get his hands dirty. He wanted the coup to succeed while he was unwilling to share in any of the risks should it fail. Fortunately it turned out that his half-assed coup attempt didn’t pan out too well.

IMO things may have gone very differently if Trump had crossed the Rubicon, outright marched with the protesters to the capital, then as president publicly declared all Democrats to be traitors and order their immediate arrest. Plus Pence too if he was still insisting on counting the vote. Then just toss out the “rigged” votes and have the Republicans declare him the winner.

How would the various law enforcement agencies, guards, secret service and military reacted to such an order? How would various state governments have reacted, especially Republican ones? We’ll never know since he didn’t try it, but I imagine at least some of them would have been quite supportive. I could see a scenario where supporters in the security / police / secret services, having been given a direct order from the president, might have gone on to arrest the democrats and stop the count. Doubly so with the full mob behind his back.

Sure it’s far from guaranteed that would’ve work long run and even if it did it likely would have kicked off another civil war, but if he won out in the end he could then be dictator for life. And if he lost, so what? He’d already lived a full life, what would dying a couple of years early mean? why not go all in and take the shot? Fortunately that line of thinking has never been his MO.

[Solauren]

With Trump, I think it was more of 'let's see if they actually pull something off. If they do, great! If not, hey, as far as I'm concerned, I didn't encourage them after things started, they just got carried away.'

Not really taking advantage of the opprotunity, but not doing anything to stop them.


With Putin....
I can imagine there is no succession planning in place. Anything like that, gives someone even more reason to kill Putin.
And the past few years have shown either he was really sick alot, or one paranoid individual.

With Russia....
Assuming Putin has died....
There is probably a lot of deal making going on right now.
Whomever has sufficient military backing will probably succeed Putin, officially. Complete with 'official documentation'.

However, unless it's by a significant margin, I see other factions saying 'no, it should be this guy, and we have documents to prove it'.

We'll probably end up seeing military units moved around like chess pieces, until a final deal is made between all groups.

That could actually be very good for the Ukraine. I'm pretty sure if someone were to send an order 'I am not President of Russia, I order all forces in the Ukraine to withdraw to protect Moscow from disloyal insurrectionist attempting to interfer in my lawful ascension to authority', to Russian forces in the Ukraine would immediately get their full support, and withdraw.

What happens beyond that, is anyone's guess.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia raises interest rate to 15% after steep climb in inflation

Russia’s central bank has increased interest rates by more than expected to 15% after the war-torn economy suffered a steep rise in inflation.

The economy’s limited capacity to respond to an increase in consumer demand was blamed by the bank for the rise in inflation to 6.6% in October from 6% in the previous month.

Even with the increase in borrowing costs, inflation is expected to carry on climbing to 7.5% by the end of the year, the central bank said, before falling back to 4% next year.

“Current inflationary pressures have significantly increased to a level above the Bank of Russia’s expectations,” the bank said in a statement.

“Higher inflationary pressures are seen across an increasingly broader range of goods and services. This means that a steady rise in domestic demand is progressively exceeding the capabilities to expand the production of goods and the provision of services. These conditions boost businesses’ appetite to pass higher costs on to consumers, which is driven among others by the weakening of the rouble and labour shortages.”
Seasonally adjusted price growth – a measure of rising prices that indicates the underlying pressures facing Russian businesses – averaged 12.1% in annualised terms in the third quarter, up from 5.1% in the three months to the end of June.

Nevertheless, the two-point increase surprised analysts, who expected a more limited one percentage point rise.

With much of Russia’s manufacturing production geared towards the war effort following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the economy remains unable to respond to a rise in private consumer spending, which has spent most of the last 18 months about 10% below levels seen before the invasion.

The central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, said that while the situation in the Middle East had clouded the outlook, she had no choice but to counteract the inflationary effect of Moscow’s budget increases.

Earlier this month the rouble slumped to 102 for each $1 before the imposition of capital controls on the flow of roubles leaving Russia triggered a recovery to 93 roubles this week.

The depressed value of the currency has increased the cost of imports and provided another impetus for rising prices. Before the invasion of Ukraine, 75 roubles could purchase $1.

Russia’s GDP will expand by 2.2% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent prediction. Much of the increase follows a surge in spending on equipment for the military.

The defence budget has risen to an equivalent of 3.9% of GDP this year, from 2.7% in 2021, the year before the invasion of Ukraine. It will jump by more than 70% in 2024, reaching about 6% of GDP, according to Reuters’ assessment of official plans.

Consumers have more to spend after an increase by Moscow in welfare benefit payments to families and older people, seen by many analysts as an effort by the president, Vladimir Putin, to shore up domestic support for the war.

Putin has greater funds after a 70% increase in gas prices over the past three months and a rise in oil prices.

The National Bank of Ukraine was able this month to cut interest rates by four percentage points to 16%, deeper than the 18% forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

After collapsing almost 30% last year following Russia’s attack, Ukraine’s gross domestic product will climb 4.9% in 2023, up from a forecast of 2.9%, the central bank said.

[wautd]

Putin blames anti jewish pogroms in Russia on Ukraine and the West

BBC

The US has dismissed as "absurd" claims by Russia that an anti-Israel riot at a Dagestan airport on Sunday was organised by Ukraine and the West.

In a televised meeting on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the incident had been part of an attempt to spread "chaos" in Russia.

Hundreds stormed the Makhachkala airport ahead of the arrival of a flight from Tel Aviv, Israel.

Many waved Palestinian flags and chanted antisemitic slogans.

Dagestan, a constituent republic of Russia, has a majority Muslim population, and the incident is thought to have been sparked by anger over the conflict in Gaza.

Security forces eventually brought the situation under control, and more than 60 people have since been arrested, according to local authorities.

"The events in Makhachkala last night were instigated through social networks, not least from Ukraine, by the hands of agents of Western special services," Mr Putin told a meeting of Russia's Security Council.

"Who is organising the deadly chaos and who benefits from it today, in my opinion, has already become obvious.

"It is the current ruling elites of the US and their satellites who are the main beneficiaries of world instability."

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that "against the backdrop of TV footage showing the horrors of what is happening in the Gaza Strip - the deaths of people, children, old people - it is very easy for enemies to take advantage of and provoke the situation".

The governor of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, also said the riots had been incited "from the territory of Ukraine by traitors" using a Telegram channel called Morning Dagestan.

Morning Dagestan is an Islamist channel that opposes Russian control of the region and has been associated with Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian MP who defected to Ukraine in 2016 and was granted Ukrainian citizenship.

On Sunday, the channel posted the details of a flight arriving in Makhachkala from Tel Aviv and told its followers to "meet the unexpected visitors".

Following Mr Melikov's comments, the channel posted a statement saying it had no connection to Mr Ponomarev or Ukraine. Mr Ponomarev has said he stopped supporting the channel last year, although his own statements in recent months contradict this claim.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned the airport riot.

Mob storms Russian airport searching for Jews
How social media fuelled antisemitic violence in Dagestan, Russia
Asked about Russia's claims at a White House briefing, John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, described them as "classic Russian rhetoric".

"When something goes bad in your country, you blame somebody else," he said.

"The West had nothing to do with this. This is just hate, bigotry and intimidation, pure and simple."

He also said comparisons between footage from the airport and the pogroms of the late 19th and early 20th century were "apt".

Video circulated widely on social media showed a large crowd of people storming through the airport, forcing open doors and spilling out onto the runway.

Some were also seen stopping cars outside and demanding to see the passengers' documents in an apparent search for Israeli passports.

Russia's health ministry said 20 people, including some police officers, had sustained injuries and that two were in a critical condition.

After the incident, Mr Melikov said that "all Dagestanis empathise with the suffering of victims by the actions of unrighteous people" but described the events at the airport as "outrageous".

A statement from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli government viewed "with utmost gravity attempts to harm Israeli citizens and Jews anywhere".

"Israel expects the Russian legal authorities to safeguard the well-being of all Israeli citizens and Jews wherever they are and to take strong action against the rioters," it said.

[LaCroix]

Afaik the actual inflation in Russia is 60-70%, about 10 times the official number...

[LadyTevar]

Putin blames anti jewish pogroms in Russia on Ukraine and the West

BBC

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
And there weren't multiple Pogroms throughout Russia during the Tsarist years? "FIddler on the Roof" anyone?

[LaCroix]

Putin got a quagmire there - The Dagestani and other muslim minorities provied the bulk of the meat for the army, so he can't afford to rebuff them for being anti-semitic, or conscription numbers suffer. Same as his main weapon supplier - Iran. If he defends jews, his Shahed drone supply and ammo deliversis will take a hit.

Otoh, Russians in Moskau and St. Pertersburg are his political base, and mostly western-ish in their view to anti-semitism, seeing it as barbaric, and the elections are looming - so he can't defend these actions, either.

So he's doing the good old soviet "deflect and blame the west" spiel, for he has no relations to the west that aren't already burned to the ground.

[Broomstick]

Putin blames anti jewish pogroms in Russia on Ukraine and the West

BBC

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
And there weren't multiple Pogroms throughout Russia during the Tsarist years? "FIddler on the Roof" anyone?

"Fiddler on the Roof" is the sanitized version of my family's history.

On the other hand, while I doubt Putin's story there's just enough plausibility to it (Ukraine destabilizing Russia via any means available) that it works for Putin's purposes.

[LadyTevar]

"Fiddler on the Roof" is the sanitized version of my family's history.

On the other hand, while I doubt Putin's story there's just enough plausibility to it (Ukraine destabilizing Russia via any means available) that it works for Putin's purposes.

I know it's very sanitized, but still shocking and violent when the wedding is attacked.

Putin's grasping at straws. I'm still not understanding why they're still zerk-rushing Adviivka, after all the loses.

[Lord Revan]

"Fiddler on the Roof" is the sanitized version of my family's history.

On the other hand, while I doubt Putin's story there's just enough plausibility to it (Ukraine destabilizing Russia via any means available) that it works for Putin's purposes.

I know it's very sanitized, but still shocking and violent when the wedding is attacked.

Putin's grasping at straws. I'm still not understanding why they're still zerk-rushing Adviivka, after all the loses.

The continuing zerg rush could be a case of communications not reaching the high enough level from the front so who ever is pushing the attack isn't getting the info that they're essentially bleeding their own forces dry or it's a case of trying the same what Italians tried during WWI of keep trying to attack until they succeed (note that Italians never did succeed even after 12 very bloody battles).

[Solauren]

They might also be trying to draw more and more Ukraine resources to Adviivka, in order to weaken other places in the line for a break through attempt.

Essentially, an extremely bloody feint.

[KraytKing]

Someone on Reddit pointed out, early in the Avdiivka fighting, that this is just the cost of warfare. In the video they were commenting on, two or three Russian AFVs were destroyed, but the remainder didn't retreat, and it is broadly accepted that the territory they captured is now firmly in Russian hands thanks to geolocated footage. I think it is important to remember that the Russians are still advancing in Avdiivka. They captured the slag heap that was holding them off for the first week, the pincer is still closing, slowly.

So, to offer my view on the question, they are still zerg rushing because the math still works from their perspective. They have enough vehicles and men to continue pushing this assault, if it means attriting Ukrainian units and potentially forcing Ukraine to abandon a heavily fortified part of the line. We don't really know how many tanks, BMPs, and half-trained conscripts they have and are willing to expend, but right now it seems like they think it's plenty. If their exchange rate of lives to meters is presently acceptable, then maybe we need to update ourselves on how many lives they have available to expend.

I don't find it terribly likely that this is a feint. Russia has not often exhibited capacity for multiple offensives in parallel, and this is a big push. It is a politically important target, it's something of a salient, and they have made some real progress. But, we'll see.

Pro-Russian commenters really do seem to lack both foresight and a memory, it seems. Ukraine released a cut of special forces action on the Black Sea, and it was FULL of trolls claiming that Ukraine had sacrificed some of their best men for these glamor shots. Forgetting, it would seem, that they took down the air defenses that might have saved half a dozen Russian ships of the Black Sea Fleet. Which has now relocated out of Crimea.

Reports of Ukrainian manpower issues are growing more credible. Not so much that they are running dry, but that the well-motivated, well-trained, experienced soldiers have been lost, and replacements are being found lacking. To the credit of these claims, some old units are reporting extremely high casualty percentages, and there are some dumb ass assault maneuvers being pulled every once in a while. On the other hand, Avdiivka flanks were reportedly only lightly manned by non-assault units with insufficient artillery support and still fought hard and long. It could be something like the French mutinies of 1917, when the men refused to attack but resolutely held their positions defensively. But, this evidence is still somewhat flimsy, it's a little early to say.

[KraytKing]

More ships destroyed in Crimea. The Russians hit and damaged a Liberian-flagged commercial vessel. No repercussions yet, nor a continuation of the pattern. It could be a case of mistaken identity, which would be odd considering there are no large Ukrainian military vessels they could have been aiming for instead. Or it could indicate stronger Russian actions to enforce a blockade by scaring off insurance companies. The implications of the latter could be interesting. Ukraine certainly stands to lose a lot without secure shipping, but Russia could potentially lose a lot more in absolute, if not relative, terms.

Avdiivka grinds on. Several Leopards have been destroyed, allegedly belonging to one of the Ukrainian high-grade assault brigades, but evidence that I am aware of is sketchy. Russian losses continue to mount. I vaguely recall reading yesterday that major reserves were about to be thrown in, but it was a fleeting moment and I can't recall the details. I would doubt it, as reserves have already been visibly mobilized to make good the terrible losses the Russians have already suffered.

Ukrainian operations across the Dnipro are expanding. A curious case. What do they hope to accomplish? With so many active fronts, I can't really see the use in opening another one, unless there is some major tactical objective about to be revealed, such as a particularly vulnerable position, an exposed asset, or something similar. But if they intended to draw Russians off from Avdiivka, why not step up the assaults encircling Bakhmut or at Verbove?

US congressional stonewalling is growing more concerning. The latest aid package was one of the smallest, and there are scattered reports that the lack of fighting is owed to a serious shortage of ammunition. Though, I should be careful connecting those two: ordinarily I would expect there to be a month or two between the cessation of aid packages, which we haven't yet seen, and the effects becoming clear. Abrams tanks have at last been delivered, at least, though given the training time I expect it will be a while before they are employed.

At this point, I do not expect either side to ever conclusively win this war barring a paradigm shift owed to information not publicly available. I cannot see a Russian victory that includes Kyiv, though I can accept it is possible that they regain the territory they have officially annexed or liberated to the DPR and LPR, and force Kyiv to accept it. Ukraine has unquestionably been causing serious attrition to the Russians, so if they reveal that the Russian front line is actually far more brittle than it appears, I would be only moderately surprised. I do not expect this is the case. So, for the sake of the remainder of Ukraine, I hope my government and others keep up the aid enough to exhaust Russia and at least maintain the present borders.

So many dead. The journals from men on the front lines are crushing. Russian troops rely on expendable units to soak up the first few tank-killing artillery strikes and mines, then send in the regulars while the first wave is shot to pieces. Short infantry assaults are the preferred way to take land; it is shockingly reminiscent of WWI stormtrooper infiltration tactics. The big pushes are hit-or-miss, and routinely cost two or three armored vehicles each time. The little assaults are at least less expensive.

A personal side effect is that Hollywood war movies have become almost intolerable. I haven't been able to watch anything purporting to represent modern warfare for years, but now my whole perspective has shifted and I just can't help but take it all too seriously. Oh well.

[Highlord Laan]

US congressional stonewalling is growing more concerning.

Fascist pigs stick together, and the conservative politburo know their own.

[LaCroix]

Another 30000 troops of Ukraine are returning from training in the UK, which will help nicely to expand the Dnjepr crossing.

Right noch, Russia is facing a real dilemma - Ardiivka is another Bakhmut - currently around 10-15k dead and hundreds of vehicles lost for a little blob of land that has nothing of value. Losses of 1k men and dozens of vehicles each day. 70% of whom do not even reach visible contact to the frontline before they are obliterated on the well known and mapped approaches.

Meanwhile, Russia feels the pull on the ressources - at least 40k troops are bound there, the holding back of the UA offensive fixes just as many forces over there, and now UA realized that Russia is running out of flags to move around the table, and opened a third front, with good results.

So far, they have at least 3 bridgeheads that are developed enough that some vehicles could be ferried over, they've taken the road that goes along the souther Dnjepr under fire control, which means that all russian reenforcements need to essentially detour to almost crimea to move from eastern to western Kherson front or back. And now they are opening another beachhead in the far west Kherson coast, excactly where there is now the worst russian supply route.

Meanwhile, russian airforce and choppers had to retreat even further back behind the Russian border due to constant attack, and UA practically dissolving their air defense and jamming equipment.

This with winter coming in and Russia's frontline supply getting even more disfunctional.

It's starting to become too much for Russia - they either have to somehow pull equipment out of their ass and mobilize huge numbers within an instant, or they are going to unravel. All it needs right now are a few missiles on the bridge, even to just knock it out for a few weeks, and things are going to be dire... Last news are that Russia had started making rounds with their arms customers and asking if they could get their delivered tanks, helicopters, planes, and all kinds of spare parts back, pretty please...

So far, Europe is trying to up their support, and I hope the US is coming around, even with the newest clown in charge just sending off congress in a long weekend rather than doing their job. But even so, Ukraine is again ramping up their drone production, having now a domestic version of the shahed drone, with increased range, and even a domestic ballistic long(er) range missile going into production.

Also, Kiev has announced that if Russia is going after their energy, again, this winter; they will retaliate against russian power stations, refineries and pipelines. I wonder if the russians are dumb enough to try.

[LadyTevar]

Also, Kiev has announced that if Russia is going after their energy, again, this winter; they will retaliate against russian power stations, refineries and pipelines. I wonder if the russians are dumb enough to try.

Yes, I do believe Russia is dumb enough to try to hit UA power stations.
They are going to learn the HARD WAY that was a bad idea.

[LaCroix]

Russian econaomy is finally starting to wobble...

Russian companies are starting to go bankrupt in record numbers.

[Lord Revan]

Hopefully this means Putin will pull out before a total collapse as a civil war in a country with nukes is a Bad Thing(tm).

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Hopefully this means Putin will pull out before a total collapse as a civil war in a country with nukes is a Bad Thing(tm).

That assumes he's still alive, there's plenty of rumours persisting that he actually died and it's someone else pulling the strings.

[Solauren]

Hopefully this means Putin will pull out before a total collapse as a civil war in a country with nukes is a Bad Thing(tm).

That assumes he's still alive, there's plenty of rumours persisting that he actually died and it's someone else pulling the strings.

I have to wonder if Putin had those rumors started himself. Good way to expose traitors.

[Raw Shark]

If we're just idly speculating now, my money's on Prigozhin's alive, he did it with the candlestick in the Conservatory, and he's currently riding Vladimir's favorite bear around wearing his face as a hat.

[Lord Revan]

Hopefully this means Putin will pull out before a total collapse as a civil war in a country with nukes is a Bad Thing(tm).

That assumes he's still alive, there's plenty of rumours persisting that he actually died and it's someone else pulling the strings.

Even if someone else is ruling in his name, the point stands, I hope whoever is in charge of Russia stops this madness before Russia devolves into a civil war and us near Russia have to worry about some warlord nuking us for what ever reason.

[LadyTevar]

Ukraine Marines Gain Riverbank Foothold

Ukrainian forces say they have secured several positions on the Russian-occupied eastern bank of the Dnipro river, and their leaders have been keen to talk up their progress.

The marines have spoken of gaining a foothold on "several bridgeheads" on the left bank, as they try to push the Russians back in a bid to protect civilians on the opposite side of the river from constant Russian shelling.

The few hundred soldiers are outnumbered and surrounded in three directions, yet have managed to dig in for the best part of a month. This isn't the thousands needed to potentially liberate swathes of territory which Kyiv so desperately wants to do.

Lines have been static on the river for months, but the article is quick to state that Ukraine needed to show momentum for its Allies Support. It looks like Ukrainian fighters are facing low morale and fatigue as well.

[LaCroix]

Ukraine is advancing over the Dnjepr, and even in the locked primary offensive, things start moving again, while ardivka and Bakhmut are still eating up manpower for the russians. (we are talking 1k+ soldiers per day over all frontlines, 70% of that is ardiivka.)

Ukraine is getting aware that Russia is stretched really tight right now, so they diverted some reserve units to attack between Ardiivka and Bakhmuth.

Never give your opponent a problem, give them a dilemma - they either pull forces from Bakhmut and Ardivka, which means their offensive will become even more of a useless slaughter, pull it from the south, where they already weakened their forces to send the reserves to ardiivka.

They don't have anything left along the Dnjepr, not even enough to contest the advances of a few hundred marines.

They lost all reserves in the south, it's becoming so bad that Ukraine forces managed to sneak a handful people across a couple of miles into Kopani, overwhelm the sleepy guards with no nightvision, and then get into the barracks, empty their mags into the sleeping men, toss a few granades, and scamper off into the dark...

Russia is really stretched taut, it's just a matter of time. I am pretty sure that if the UA forces start seriously ferrying forces over the Dnjepr, the Russians WILL need to fall back to some eastern line - most likely Nova khakovka directly south, to shorten the frontline to the available manpower, and keep at least one highway behind the frontline to keep supply.

That is the only way to keep the access to Crimea defended. But this still leaves them with barely any reserves, and will still allow UA forces to advance to take pretty much everything under fire control, and amass troops.

Slowly, they are running out of options, we just need to keep Ukraine supplied and in the loop. Thankfully, all European partners are stepping up, especially Germany. Hopefully, the US can be brought "online" again, the new speaker is so in love with israel that he will surely budge to give Ukraine aid, if that is needed to fund israel.