UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[J]

So the same source as the Ghost of Kiev. You'll forgive if I wait for independent verification of the alleged event.

[LaCroix]

Anyway...
If you wonder why Rusbots are doing overtime today, apart from the various hacking strikes, European states have decided to step up support as the US is currently stalling - pretty much taking advance to fund their own defense companies.

Germany delivered another Patriot, and pledged 8+6 bn € in support.
Czech Republik created a tab for ukraine to order czech made military equipment, 4.7 bn €.
Finland announced a "significant" increase in their production of heavy ammunition as a long term investment in the war.
Denmark gave 1 bn€
Norway gave 1.8bn and another NASAM system.

[bilateralrope]

If the hack on the tax system happened, what should we expect to see from Russia over the next few days ?

Assuming they hide as much of the damage as they can.

[LaCroix]

Most of the damage is going to be hidden - tax revenue. so we will see problems in liquidity, which is nothing new. they probably will pay even less soldiers this month, maybe have irregularities in pensions, but mostly, they will simply spend reserve money a bit quicker and guesstimate their number a bit looser than usual.

Depending on how much they want to pretend nothing happened (hint - very - putin just announced his election bid) you might see a few more protest posts about missing payments, but not much more.
This is more a medium to long term damage to the finances, as it causes problems in th income stream, while creating a non-neglible efort and cost to get it up running, again.

But combined with the trouble with India and China - China demands payment in yuan for their war support, so they tried to make India pay their oil directly in yuan (pushing the loss of value on the exchange market onto them), but India categorically refuses to do so - causes another vector of strain to the already precarious russian budget.

With all the money they need to exchange for their imports, and now a cash flow issue, they might need to print, which is going to kick up inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well to his credit, Joe Biden and other democrats have been very vocal about maintaining support of Ukraine, lest it be overshadowed by the clusterfuck that is Gaza.

[Solauren]

Cyberattack succeeded - the Russian Tax system was deleted and completely destroyed. All data lost. Pretty sure they had no backups, neiter.
Must-do joke:
Not really important, for those people who had money didn't pay taxes, anyway, and the others are too poor to pay anything noticable.

Unfortunately, it will probably be more - we have no records of your taxe payments for the last X years, therefore you have not made them. You now also owe interest.

[Solauren]

LaCroix was correct on what is USUALLY in a tax database. It could also include property tax data/the property registry, and a host of other things.

BUT, it's also possible that Russia has the various tax-related systems subdivided and semi-independent, using common data keys for them to communicate.

Now, let me explain

Databases are usually made up of tables. I have yet to hear of one that is not. Even linked spreadsheets show up as tables in that scenario.

Well designed databases (a requirement for anything with any serious amount of data) will have some sort of UniqueKey in them. Either an Autnomatically generated number, or a unique manually intered identifier that the software prevents a duplicate from being entered.

i.e Citizen Identication Number.

So, each person in the database has a unique Citizen Identification Number, in the primary identification table. Great!
i.e
CIN ABC-0124X-012 - Legal Name - Solauren
and probably some unique event stuff
i.e Date of Birth, Gender, etc.


Other tables would include that CIN# (meaning this record is for Solauren), BUT, there would not nessacarily 'only once' limit on it.
i.e the 'Address' Table could have my current address, as well as all my previous addresses going back however far it's recorded.
The unique identifier on that tables is probably an 'autonumber. Basically 'this is record 1, 2, 3'

Now, there could be another indentifier in that table, that has the Property Identification NUmber of the address I was living at.
That's for talking to the Property Registry, which could be a completely seperate database.

So, in theory, the CIN # and DOB/Gender could be the 'Census' database, the 'Address' list that talks to 'Census' and 'Property Registry' could be the 'Citizen Residence Database'.

So, depending on how Russias tax database was set up, it could actually have been any number of sub databases, not even stored on the same server or in the same primary network. The 'tax database' that was taken down may not even have had any data in it.

Case in point, the database I administer at work, as one 'Log in and Front End' for accesses 7 different databases, who's back end tables (the actual data) are in seperate directories. There is also a copy of the 'front end' on everyone's computer, and an 'install' copy in the team common direcrory.

The back end databases are stored across 3 seperate servers. There are also back-ups. One on my computer's physical drive (daily), one on my team leaders (Weekly), and my TL mentioned there is one that is updated once a week onto portable media. (The database isn't that big, less then a Gigabyte.)

So, while taking out the 'tax database', might be bad, it really depends on how well it's set-up, and how digitially and physically compartmentalize it is.

Therefore, it's entirely possible, assuming the cyberattack actually happened, it might be something super serious, or it could be something like 'Comrad, they took out everyone's tax returns from last year, we'll have to make them refill with this years. Oops, we lots all payment information, so unless they can confirm, they'll have to repay. Use the payment database to tell the banks to lose that information, and then change payment 'Classified Database 91234-P-2023-12-12'

Then again, going by Russia's military performance, I wouldn't be surprised if it was all actually on a bunch of Open Office Spreadsheets all stored on the same hard drive, and the 'cyberattack', involved someone removing only 1 directory to test out the security, thinking it was junk files that might not be monitored.

[Gandalf]

And a good chunk of spare US ammo is going to the IDF since Washington's one true love is Israel; Ukraine is just an expensive side piece who's about to be asked to give back the keys to the sportscar and move her shit out of the apartment. Zelensky is already taking on the disposition of a mistress scorned.

I guess it's in part because the conflict hasn't had any big new content drop in a while. People have seen Zelenskiy visit congress before. Nothing new there. People went nuts over the "Ghost of Kyiv," who totally existed, used they/them pronouns, and shot down the entire Russian Air Force apparently.

It's a slow conflict, while the US wants instant action, big personalities, and big wins.

[Zaune]

Nonsense. The Ghost of Kyiv was a British volunteer pilot known only as "Auntie Mabel".

Or so certain British social media communities would have you believe, anyway.

[Elfdart]

I guess it's in part because the conflict hasn't had any big new content drop in a while. People have seen Zelenskiy visit congress before. Nothing new there. People went nuts over the "Ghost of Kyiv," who totally existed, used they/them pronouns, and shot down the entire Russian Air Force apparently.

It's a slow conflict, while the US wants instant action, big personalities, and big wins.

My guess is that Biden & Co. thought stalling Russia or better still, giving them another swift kick in the nuts like last year would have brought Putin to the bargaining table by now, the war could be wrapped up on Washington's terms before election season gets under way, and the Dems could crow all the way to November about their big "win". But the much-ballyhooed Summer Offensive became the Autumn Offensive and now...

As every losing sports teams says: "There's always next season." Except that Ukraine is simply running low on swinging dicks to throw at the Russians. If they're using press gangs now, by this time next year it'll be boys and old codgers. Then what?

I can't imagine even the most ghoulish of Beltway jackals actually wanting this shit-show to still be going on through next summer -unless they want to give Il Douchebag a second term.

[Vympel]

As every losing sports teams says: "There's always next season." Except that Ukraine is simply running low on swinging dicks to throw at the Russians. If they're using press gangs now, by this time next year it'll be boys and old codgers. Then what?

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/

Average age of a Ukrainian soldier is already an extremely-not-ideal 43:

Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”

I can't imagine even the most ghoulish of Beltway jackals actually wanting this shit-show to still be going on through next summer -unless they want to give Il Douchebag a second term.

I think the political calculation of this point is keeping the war going until after the election to make sure it doesn't have an unfavourable ending that will be an electoral millstone around Biden's neck. Only the most dyed-in-the-wool fanatics at this point actually believe "24 February" borders (never mind 1991 borders) is still possible. For everyone else its just about kicking the can down the road as long as possible until they have to make peace.

The proposed $61B appropriation for Ukraine Biden is asking for illustrates this - from February 2022 to now, Ukraine has received from the US $112B in both military and economic aid over four spending bills. So Biden is asking for less than half of what they've already received at a time when Ukraine support is waning and increasingly unpopular. See the article posted above about how the Ukrainians are just gonna have to fight under a tighter budget.

All the handwringing aside, we all know Ukraine will get some money*, the Republicans are just using this to extract the maximum number of concessions.

*If the Republicans were especially ruthless they could insist on only a fraction of Biden's ask, thereby putting him under repeated political pressure panhandling for an unpopular war throughout the 2024 election cycle

[LaCroix]

Oh, by the way - since it has not yet started to show up on western news...

Russia has "misplaced" Navalni. Source - his laywers and family.

Nobody knows where he is, whatever prison or camp you are told to ask for hm, they always say that he has been transferred to another one - who in term also don't have him or have transferred him.

He's been misplaced for a week or so, by now. nobody knows if he's still alive.
Again - with Russia - this is a bandwith issue: actual incompetence in reporting his location - accidentally killing him - murder

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Putin hit by humiliating blow as elite team struck by 'heavy losses' during failed attack

A new division of the Russian airborne forces (VDV) is believed to have suffered "exceptionally heavy losses" and "failed" to have met its target in Ukraine.

The British Ministry of Defence claimed in its latest assessment the 104th Guards Airborne Division (104 GAD) debuted on the Ukrainian battlefield in the partially Russian-occupied region of Kherson.

In November, Ukraine secured several bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, which has been for months the de-facto southern frontline.

The 104 GAD had likely been tasked to disrupt the positions of the Ukrainian forces across the river - but the UK MoD suggested the mission ended up in a humiliating failure.

The intelligence briefing released on December 14 read: "In early December 2023, the newly-formed 104th Guards Airborne Division of the VDV highly likely suffered exceptionally heavy losses and failed to achieve its objectives during its combat debut in Kherson Oblast.

"The operation took place after the division joined Russia's Dnipro Group of Forces and its attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian bridgehead near the village of Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro.

"104 GAD was reportedly poorly supported by airpower and artillery, while many of the troops were highly likely inexperienced."

This failure prompted some Russian military bloggers, influential war commentators, to call for the resignation of the Dnipro Group of Forces Commander, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, according to the MoD.

The assessment added this marked a "blow" to the reputation of the official, normally regarded "as one of the more capable Russian field commanders of the war".

A fortnight ago, the British Ministry of Defence had already mentioned the new 104 GAD, assessing it was "likely [to] be poorly trained" and not up to the high standards of the elite VDV.

This humiliating defeat in southern Ukraine came as Vladimir Putin answered for four hours questions from Russian citizens and members of the press during an end-of-year event.

The marathon event covered a wide range of topics including the ongoing war - or "special military operation" as the Kremlin continues to call it.

The Russian President, who is seeking to retain power at the presidential election next March, claimed there is no need for a second wave of mobilisation of reservists, alleging there are some 617,000 Russian soldiers currently in Ukraine.

While Russia arguably has the manpower to deploy hundreds of thousands of soldiers, since the invasion began it also lost a huge amount of troops.

According to a classified US intelligence report, 315,000 Russian soldiers have been either killed or wounded since February 2022, a number the report said amounted to almost 90 per cent of Russia's military personnel at the start of the invasion.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

EU says yes to Ukraine and Moldova joining talks but Hungary calls move a 'bad decision'

European leaders have agreed to open EU membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova, in a move described as "a bad decision" by Hungary's leader Viktor Orban.

Mr Orban said on Wednesday that Hungary would block proposals for Ukraine to join the European Union, but then did not veto the decision to further talks.

He did, however, say Ukraine joining the bloc could lead to "unforeseeable consequences".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was happy with the outcome of the vote, which puts his country one step closer to joining the European Union.

"I thank everyone who worked for this to happen and everyone who helped. I congratulate every Ukrainian on this day," President Zelenskyy wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

"History is made by those who don’t get tired of fighting for freedom," he added.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on X that the move was a strong sign of support for Ukraine and it showed that Ukraine and Moldova "belong to the European family".

Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova both applied to join the European Union following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The European Commission recommended that Ukraine should be granted EU candidate status in June last year, which was the first step of the long journey towards being given full membership.

During Thursday's meeting Georgia was also given candidate status, which Ukraine and Moldova each obtained in June 2022.

EU Council President Charles Michel said the EU would open negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina "once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is reached".

Gaining membership to the EU can take years or even decades.

Countries must meet a detailed host of economic and political conditions, including a commitment to the rule of law and other democratic principles.

[LadyTevar]

Oh, by the way - since it has not yet started to show up on western news...

Russia has "misplaced" Navalni. Source - his laywers and family.

Nobody knows where he is, whatever prison or camp you are told to ask for hm, they always say that he has been transferred to another one - who in term also don't have him or have transferred him.

He's been misplaced for a week or so, by now. nobody knows if he's still alive.
Again - with Russia - this is a bandwith issue: actual incompetence in reporting his location - accidentally killing him - murder

I'd linked the BBC News article about this on page 48, about halfway down, so it's been in the Western News as of last week.

And at that point, Navalni's associates hadn't heard from him or of him in 6 days.

I'm not sure why Putin was that afraid of Navalni that he had to 'vanish' him right as Putin announced the elections.

[Gandalf]

My guess is that Biden & Co. thought stalling Russia or better still, giving them another swift kick in the nuts like last year would have brought Putin to the bargaining table by now, the war could be wrapped up on Washington's terms before election season gets under way, and the Dems could crow all the way to November about their big "win". But the much-ballyhooed Summer Offensive became the Autumn Offensive and now...

As every losing sports teams says: "There's always next season." Except that Ukraine is simply running low on swinging dicks to throw at the Russians. If they're using press gangs now, by this time next year it'll be boys and old codgers. Then what?

I can't imagine even the most ghoulish of Beltway jackals actually wanting this shit-show to still be going on through next summer -unless they want to give Il Douchebag a second term.

Yeah, it's interesting that the whole conflict is becoming Biden's problem, in the way it was for Bush in Iraq and Afghanistan. Republicans can wait him out as fiscal material losses mount with little to show, and Russia can wait for elections to change the makeup of government.

[Vympel]

Yeah, it's interesting that the whole conflict is becoming Biden's problem, in the way it was for Bush in Iraq and Afghanistan. Republicans can wait him out as fiscal material losses mount with little to show, and Russia can wait for elections to change the makeup of government.

I don't think Russia is waiting for the makeup of the government to change - Putin recently expressed awareness that the Bipartisan Foreign Policy Consensus in the US would perpetuate anti-Russian policies regardless.

Like make no mistake, if Trump wins a second term for example the US won't suddenly cut Ukraine off. They'll keep funding going for as long as possible for the same reason Biden is - because an outright loss will be bad for Republicans electorally. The Republican objections to Ukraine funding are opportunistic and procedural, and will evaporate the moment they're in power.

[KraytKing]

As every losing sports teams says: "There's always next season." Except that Ukraine is simply running low on swinging dicks to throw at the Russians. If they're using press gangs now, by this time next year it'll be boys and old codgers. Then what?

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/

Average age of a Ukrainian soldier is already an extremely-not-ideal 43:

The average age of Ukrainians is approximately 40, so that isn't odd. And if you're implying that Ukraine is going to flat run out of lives, get your head out of the 1940s. Reporting is obviously difficult, but there are something like 18-20 million males left in Ukraine, and 10-15 million females. Even if we assume Ukraine has suffered the losses they claim to have inflicted on Russia, 1.2 million irrecoverable casualties, combat will empty Ukraine slower than old age. They may run out of willpower due to losing so many lives, but there is very little danger of Ukraine being depopulated to the point of inability to continue. Stories of press gangs and shortages are anecdotal.

[Vympel]

The average age of Ukrainians is approximately 40, so that isn't odd. And if you're implying that Ukraine is going to flat run out of lives, get your head out of the 1940s.

The 1940s would be an improvement given the age distribution at the time. And I'm not implying they'd run out of lives, I'm talking about the quality of the troops they can conscript to keep going.

Reporting is obviously difficult, but there are something like 18-20 million males left in Ukraine, and 10-15 million females. Even if we assume Ukraine has suffered the losses they claim to have inflicted on Russia, 1.2 million irrecoverable casualties, combat will empty Ukraine slower than old age. They may run out of willpower due to losing so many lives, but there is very little danger of Ukraine being depopulated to the point of inability to continue. Stories of press gangs and shortages are anecdotal.

? No they're not at all anecdotal.

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/

Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.

The decision was intended to signal his commitment to fighting graft. But the move backfired, according to the senior military officer, as recruitment nearly ground to a halt without leadership. The fired officials also proved difficult to replace, in part because the reputation of the draft offices had been tainted. “Who wants that job?” the officer asks. “It’s like putting a sign on your back that says: corrupt.”

Press gangs is how Ukraine recruits now. The volunteers are all used up. There's countless videos of the press gangs prowling the streets dragging unwilling men away. They're in a recruitment crisis.

[PainRack]

The average age of Ukrainians is approximately 40, so that isn't odd. And if you're implying that Ukraine is going to flat run out of lives, get your head out of the 1940s.

The 1940s would be an improvement given the age distribution at the time. And I'm not implying they'd run out of lives, I'm talking about the quality of the troops they can conscript to keep going.

Reporting is obviously difficult, but there are something like 18-20 million males left in Ukraine, and 10-15 million females. Even if we assume Ukraine has suffered the losses they claim to have inflicted on Russia, 1.2 million irrecoverable casualties, combat will empty Ukraine slower than old age. They may run out of willpower due to losing so many lives, but there is very little danger of Ukraine being depopulated to the point of inability to continue. Stories of press gangs and shortages are anecdotal.

? No they're not at all anecdotal.

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volody ... interview/

Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.

The decision was intended to signal his commitment to fighting graft. But the move backfired, according to the senior military officer, as recruitment nearly ground to a halt without leadership. The fired officials also proved difficult to replace, in part because the reputation of the draft offices had been tainted. “Who wants that job?” the officer asks. “It’s like putting a sign on your back that says: corrupt.”

Press gangs is how Ukraine recruits now. The volunteers are all used up. There's countless videos of the press gangs prowling the streets dragging unwilling men away. They're in a recruitment crisis.

Errr. Citing social media reports is the very definition of ancedotal..


What news we do have is that Ukraine is stepping up checks on draft evasion, and the manpower crisis that Ukraine is facing is undeniable.

The problem is essentially the counteroffensive isn't "sexy" enough to keep political support. Ukraine won back half of the conquered territory, but any attempt to move forward and breach the defences, a blitzkrieg has failed. There was hopes that the reaching of Russia 2nd lines of defences might collapse the defences, as the Wagner saga compromised troop movements for a month but this time period has passed.

Exploiting any breakthrough is likely impossible for now without further Western support.
More problematic is that Russia can depend more on mercenaries to supplement it's depleted conscript corps , so even when Russia pushed out weaker troops to fill in the lines, they can still have replenish offensive power.


The narrative is now on to convince Zelensky to give up an offensive and hold, hoping for renewed Russian offensives like
Avdiivka to deplete Russian strength before another slow attack.


In other words, this isn't 1914, it's time to go to 1916.

[LaCroix]

Yeah, right now, especially in Winter, there is not much they can do, offensively, they can only keep decimating the russians where they can. And, wait out the Gaza war, tbh. Israel will probably be done with that by the end of winter, which means that there will be no "distraction" to american arms supply.

They need a new tool and tricks to get things "unlocked", and with current domestic new longer range drone and missile developments, their effective measures to remove air defense and push air power away from the frontlines, the F-16 could be that one tool that tip the scale into their favor. Especially since it lets them tap into really cheap munitions stocks of boms and missiles.

Right now, the biggest issue they have is no longer the russian artillery, but the russian air force bombing their troops. F16 will put an end to this, and let them return the favor. Guided missiles are nice, but being able to fling some gliding bombs (or even dumb bombs - an F16 is well able to hit a targt with those without any extra guidance, just at shorter range) en masse into russian positions far beyond artillery range is an ability not to be underestimated. Even the smallest aviation bombs carry a lot more power than most missile systems do, for obvious reasons, and at significantly cheaper cost. Given the available stock of GMLRS missiles vs gravity bombs and other loadout the F16 can use that just sit in store and are produced, this will be a big boost to their combat power.

[Vympel]

Errr. Citing social media reports is the very definition of ancedotal..

Yes, but the more significant part of the article is the reports of recruitment crashing because of Zelensky sacking corrupt recruitment officials. As a seperate point, characterising Ukrainian military press gangs as merely 'stories' - there's countless videos of them dragging men kicking and screaming all over the internet. It's just the way conscription works.

The problem is essentially the counteroffensive isn't "sexy" enough to keep political support. Ukraine won back half of the conquered territory, but any attempt to move forward and breach the defences, a blitzkrieg has failed. There was hopes that the reaching of Russia 2nd lines of defences might collapse the defences, as the Wagner saga compromised troop movements for a month but this time period has passed.

Hope is the right word, because there's plenty of reporting that the entire Zaporizhzhia offensive was built on pure hopium. A clear case of believing one's own bullshit*, thinking the conditions that led to victories in say, Kharkov applied to a totally different and much more heavily defended battlefield almost a year after.

*Thinking in particular of the WaPo article from months ago when it was first becoming clear the counteroffensive was going nowhere that Western officials knew they didn't have the weapons but that somehow Ukrainian morale would make up the difference.

Yeah, right now, especially in Winter, there is not much they can do, offensively, they can only keep decimating the russians where they can. And, wait out the Gaza war, tbh. Israel will probably be done with that by the end of winter, which means that there will be no "distraction" to american arms supply.

They need a new tool and tricks to get things "unlocked", and with current domestic new longer range drone and missile developments, their effective measures to remove air defense and push air power away from the frontlines, the F-16 could be that one tool that tip the scale into their favor. Especially since it lets them tap into really cheap munitions stocks of boms and missiles.

Right now, the biggest issue they have is no longer the russian artillery, but the russian air force bombing their troops. F16 will put an end to this, and let them return the favor. Guided missiles are nice, but being able to fling some gliding bombs (or even dumb bombs - an F16 is well able to hit a targt with those without any extra guidance, just at shorter range) en masse into russian positions far beyond artillery range is an ability not to be underestimated. Even the smallest aviation bombs carry a lot more power than most missile systems do, for obvious reasons, and at significantly cheaper cost. Given the available stock of GMLRS missiles vs gravity bombs and other loadout the F16 can use that just sit in store and are produced, this will be a big boost to their combat power.

The notion that a handful of clapped out upgraded F-16As could "tip the scales" against the VKS is just totally unserious, and everyone spreading it around online is simply irresponsible. It's just total bullshit. They are going to be massively outclassed by Russian fighter aircraft in theater in every capability, nevermind just as vulnerable to Russian IADS that the remnants of Ukraine's air force is now. Worse, they aren't going up just against fighter aircraft and an IADS, but Russian AWACS. Oh, and they're outnumbered, too.

It's a simple question of physics. Ukrainian aircraft have to fly low as fuck as they approach the front line or get zapped by Russian air defence. This reduces the effective range of their weapons to a fraction of that of Russian aircraft, which have no need to do so, and are being directed by both AWACS and their superior, larger radars. It also handicaps bombing attacks with JDAMs because they can't climb to loft the bombs out to their maximum range*, which Russian Su-34s do daily to strike Ukrainian targets from absolute safety, without response.

*And this is why the much-ballyhoo'd intergration of JDAM-ER on MiG-29s was such a nothing burger. They simply don't have the range.

In essence, they don't have a hope in hell of achieving anything on the front line, let alone "putting an end" to Su-34s bombing Ukrainian troops with impunity.

If the Ukrainians are smart they'll use them to shoot down Geran suicide drones behind the lines, because that's all they're good for.

[PainRack]

Errr. Citing social media reports is the very definition of ancedotal..

Yes, but the more significant part of the article is the reports of recruitment crashing because of Zelensky sacking corrupt recruitment officials. As a seperate point, characterising Ukrainian military press gangs as merely 'stories' - there's countless videos of them dragging men kicking and screaming all over the internet. It's just the way conscription works.

Right. And if we to believe all videos, Russian soldiers have also mass defected to Ukranians, are engaging in violent strikes against conscription offices wholesale and Russia conscription has collapsed utterly due to evasion.

The videos showing incidents does not equate to wholesale pressgangs.

The keynote as always is more Ukrainian drafts are running low on soldiers as losses mount.

Hope is the right word, because there's plenty of reporting that the entire Zaporizhzhia offensive was built on pure hopium. A clear case of believing one's own bullshit*, thinking the conditions that led to victories in say, Kharkov applied to a totally different and much more heavily defended battlefield almost a year after.

Kinda hard to go it's pure hopium, given that the offensive has recaptured 370 square kilometers of ground, half of what Russia gained this year.

Reversing half of Russia gains, particular when counting Ukraine much smaller army and resources IS pretty impressive.

To put it simply. Russia had a much larger army, more resources, more shells, more tanks, more reserves.... But they still failed to take out Ukraine and has seen a significant portion of their gains reversed.


Ditto to JDAMS. Ukraine what? Less than 20 aircraft, reduced to probably 12 functional at any time is still providing CAS

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ea98b23e78

The JDAM added survivability, when Ukraine has exhausted all of its long range munitions outside of drones works.

[Vympel]

Right. And if we to believe all videos, Russian soldiers have also mass defected to Ukranians, are engaging in violent strikes against conscription offices wholesale and Russia conscription has collapsed utterly due to evasion.

The videos showing incidents does not equate to wholesale pressgangs.

The keynote as always is more Ukrainian drafts are running low on soldiers as losses mount.

That's just nonsense. If I see a video showing groups of uniformed Ukrainians bundling unwilling men on the street into a car, that's clearly a pressgang. There are many such videos. Therefore they exist, and aren't simply "stories". What's to "believe" exactly?

Kinda hard to go it's pure hopium, given that the offensive has recaptured 370 square kilometers of ground, half of what Russia gained this year.

Reversing half of Russia gains, particular when counting Ukraine much smaller army and resources IS pretty impressive.

The point of the counteroffensive was not to "reverse Russian gains" (though given Russia gained more ground this year than Ukraine did, even by that metric they achieved nothing). The point was to split the Russian landbridge to Crimea in two by making it all the way to the Sea of Azov. All of NATO didn't lavish Ukraine with hundreds of armored vehicles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells it'll take them years to replace to take "370 square kilometers"* of nothing in the middle of nowhere - which is all that the counteroffensive achieved. They had a stated objective and they totally failed to achieve it, while massively attriting their force in the process. It's a fiasco, actually - both politically and militarily. Noone anywhere is impressed by it, not least of all Ukraine's western sponsors. Which is why there has been article after article dissecting this failure in the media and casting blame around all and sundry.

*Now say it in linear kilometers and tell me how far they pushed back Russian lines, i.e.



And that's super-zoomed in. You can barely even see those gains as it is. Going by total area rather than depth of penetration is just another cope for this quite obvious defeat.

To put it simply. Russia had a much larger army, more resources, more shells, more tanks, more reserves.... But they still failed to take out Ukraine and has seen a significant portion of their gains reversed.

A few empty fields and abandoned settlements in the south is not, by any means, a 'significant portion' of Russian gains. They seized not a single solitary important strategic location they aimed to capture. Not a one.

Ditto to JDAMS. Ukraine what? Less than 20 aircraft, reduced to probably 12 functional at any time is still providing CAS

Ukrainain aircraft have achieved absolutely nothing of note, CAS or air superiority wise, the entire war. The only meaningful contribution they do make is to launch Storm Shadows / SCALP-EGs from safety.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ea98b23e78

The JDAM added survivability, when Ukraine has exhausted all of its long range munitions outside of drones works.

So this article is from August, with Axe making breathless claims about a Ukrainian advance to Mariupol that never ended up happening while relating a pointless anecdote about a JDAM destroying a building. Proves my point for me as to what a total wet fart JDAM equipped Ukrainian aircraft have been, I think.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Germany delivers second Patriot system to Ukraine in new aid package

Berlin has delivered another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, along with additional Patriot surface-to-air missiles, the German government announced on Dec. 14.

The announcement coincides with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s unannounced visit to Germany.

The message describes the latest German military aid package as follows:

- A Patriot air defense system with spare parts and missiles,

- Nine Bandvagn 206 tracked all-terrain vehicles,

- 7,390 rounds of 155mm ammunition,

- Three remote-controlled mine-clearing systems,

- 14 drone detection systems,

- Eight Mercedes-Benz Zetros trucks,

- Four trailers for 8×8 HX81 tractors,

- More than 47,000 rounds of 40mm ammunition.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously committed to delivering a second Patriot battery to Ukraine in 2023.