UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[J]

This is what winning looks like.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

Excerpts:

"The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I've seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.

"We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you're setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren't planned for this area.

"We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.

"When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."

They expected Russians who'd spent months digging in and fortifying the position with everything under the sun to run away at the appearance of a handful of foot soldiers in rubber boats? Talk about drinking your own Kool-aid.

"We paid for a lot of our own kit - buying generators, power banks and warm clothes ourselves. Now the frosts are coming, things will only get worse - the real situation is being hushed up, so no-one will change anything.

"No-one knows the goals. Many believe that the command simply abandoned us. The guys believe that our presence had more political than military significance. But we just did our job and didn't get into strategy."

The guys are right, this is performance art for the political masters.

"Several brigades were supposed to be posted here, not individual companies - we just don't have enough men.

"There are a lot of young guys among us. We need people, but trained people, not the green ones we have there now. There are guys who had spent just three weeks in training, and only managed to shoot a few times.

"It's a total nightmare. A year ago, I wouldn't have said that, but now, sorry, I'm fed up.

"Everyone who wanted to volunteer for war came a long time ago - it's too hard now to tempt people with money. Now we're getting those who didn't manage to escape the draft. You'll laugh at this, but some of our marines can't even swim."

But I'm told the Ukrainians have no shortage of men. So where are they?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Yeah, it's interesting that the whole conflict is becoming Biden's problem, in the way it was for Bush in Iraq and Afghanistan. Republicans can wait him out as fiscal material losses mount with little to show, and Russia can wait for elections to change the makeup of government.

I don't think Russia is waiting for the makeup of the government to change - Putin recently expressed awareness that the Bipartisan Foreign Policy Consensus in the US would perpetuate anti-Russian policies regardless.

Like make no mistake, if Trump wins a second term for example the US won't suddenly cut Ukraine off. They'll keep funding going for as long as possible for the same reason Biden is - because an outright loss will be bad for Republicans electorally. The Republican objections to Ukraine funding are opportunistic and procedural, and will evaporate the moment they're in power.

Really? Because cutting Ukraine off sounds exactly like something Trump would do, he loves Putin so much I could envision him actually helping Russia in the war.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

This is what winning looks like.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

Excerpts:

"The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I've seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.

"We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you're setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren't planned for this area.

"We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.

"When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."

They expected Russians who'd spent months digging in and fortifying the position with everything under the sun to run away at the appearance of a handful of foot soldiers in rubber boats? Talk about drinking your own Kool-aid.

"We paid for a lot of our own kit - buying generators, power banks and warm clothes ourselves. Now the frosts are coming, things will only get worse - the real situation is being hushed up, so no-one will change anything.

"No-one knows the goals. Many believe that the command simply abandoned us. The guys believe that our presence had more political than military significance. But we just did our job and didn't get into strategy."

The guys are right, this is performance art for the political masters.

"Several brigades were supposed to be posted here, not individual companies - we just don't have enough men.

"There are a lot of young guys among us. We need people, but trained people, not the green ones we have there now. There are guys who had spent just three weeks in training, and only managed to shoot a few times.

"It's a total nightmare. A year ago, I wouldn't have said that, but now, sorry, I'm fed up.

"Everyone who wanted to volunteer for war came a long time ago - it's too hard now to tempt people with money. Now we're getting those who didn't manage to escape the draft. You'll laugh at this, but some of our marines can't even swim."

But I'm told the Ukrainians have no shortage of men. So where are they?

Humiliating Failure: Putin's New Elite Airborne Division Suffers 'Exceptionally Heavy Losses' With 'Inexperienced' Troops

A new division of the Russian airborne forces (VDV) has allegedly suffered “exceptionally heavy losses” and “failed” to meet its target.

Knewz.com has learned that the 104th Guards Airborne Division (104 GAD) debuted on the Ukrainian battlefield in the partially Russian-occupied region of Kherson and made a very poor first impression.

The Ukrainian troops had successfully secured several bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in November, which has been the unofficial southern frontline for months.

It is believed that the 104 GAD was tasked with disrupting these positions. However, the British Ministry of Defence's intelligence briefing from December 14 revealed that the division suffered significant losses and was unable to achieve its objectives.

“In early December 2023, the newly-formed 104th Guards Airborne Division of the VDV highly likely suffered exceptionally heavy losses and failed to achieve its objectives during its combat debut in Kherson Oblast,” the British Ministry of Defence stated on X.

“The operation took place after the division joined Russia’s Dnipro Group of Forces and its attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian bridgehead near the village of Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro.”

“104 GAD was reportedly poorly supported by airpower and artillery, while many of the troops were [likely highly] inexperienced.”

The report was corroborated by Military.News which reported:

“The newly formed 104th Guards Airborne Division (104 GAD) of Russia's VDV faced significant hurdles in its inaugural combat mission in the Kherson region in early December 2023, falling short of objectives and likely incurring substantial losses. As part of Russia's Dnipro Group of Forces, the division encountered difficulties, including inadequate airpower and artillery support, and the deployment of inexperienced troops.”

The division is commanded by Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is regarded as one of the more capable field officers of the war, per Express.

Following the apparent failures of the fighting unit, pro-war Russian military bloggers along with war commentators have called for Teplinsky's sacking.

According to the Russian State news outlet, TASS, Teplinsky was appointed commander of the Dnipro group of troops on October 30 and is a holder of the title "Hero of the Russian Federation."

An earlier assessment by the British Ministry of Defence had already expressed doubts about the training and capabilities of the 104 GAD and suggested that it may not have met the high standards of the elite VDV.

The news of the 104 GAD’s defeat in southern Ukraine coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin's four-hour Q&A event on December 14, where he answered questions from Russian citizens and the press.

During the conference, he asserted that Russia had 617,000 troops on the battlefield and that there would not be another recruitment drive as his forces’ "position was improving."

However, Knewz also reported stories that have emerged of men from Russia’s far east escaping their country to join the ranks of Ukrainian fighters at the battlefront.

[PainRack]

[re running low on soldiers as losses mount.

That's just nonsense. If I see a video showing groups of uniformed Ukrainians bundling unwilling men on the street into a car, that's clearly a pressgang. There are many such videos. Therefore they exist, and aren't simply "stories". What's to "believe" exactly?
[/Quote]
You subtly shifting your argument from it's systematic pressganging to we have seen incidents of pressgangs capturing draft eligible men.

Note the difference.

The point of the counteroffensive was not to "reverse Russian gains" (though given Russia gained more ground this year than Ukraine did, even by that metric they achieved nothing). The point was to split the Russian landbridge to Crimea in two by making it all the way to the Sea of Azov. All of NATO didn't lavish Ukraine with hundreds of armored vehicles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells it'll take them years to replace to take "370 square kilometers"* of nothing in the middle of nowhere - which is all that the counteroffensive achieved. They had a stated objective and they totally failed to achieve it, while massively attriting their force in the process. It's a fiasco, actually - both politically and militarily. Noone anywhere is impressed by it, not least of all Ukraine's western sponsors. Which is why there has been article after article dissecting this failure in the media and casting blame around all and sundry.

And? We still judging the counteroffensive by what it did, as opposed to the hopes of civilians.

It failed in its grand strategic option. Not disputing that. The point of contest was when you said it was pure Hopium. The counteroffensive has STILL succeeded in gaining ground, still attrited Russian forces.
That's not Hopium.

Unless you switching your argument again to oh, Ukraine offensive failed in its strategic goal, with it's forces suffering significant attrition... Oh it has lost the war.

I note that you somehow didn't use THAT tone of voice to describe the Russian failed offensives in 2021 or begining of this year, simply attributing it to density of Ukrainian defences with support of Western intelligence and other aid.

And that's super-zoomed in. You can barely even see those gains as it is. Going by total area rather than depth of penetration is just another cope for this quite obvious defeat.

Really? So why was it that Russia was also celebrating gaining literal square kilometers as major success, such as during the Bakhmut offensive ?
Or do you view that as cope too?

To put it simply. Russia had a much larger army, more resources, more shells, more tanks, more reserves.... But they still failed to take out Ukraine and has seen a significant portion of their gains reversed.

A few empty fields and abandoned settlements in the south is not, by any means, a 'significant portion' of Russian gains. They seized not a single solitary important strategic location they aimed to capture. Not a one.

Since Russia is doing the invading, simply survival and pushing them back is success.


So this article is from August, with Axe making breathless claims about a Ukrainian advance to Mariupol that never ended up happening while relating a pointless anecdote about a JDAM destroying a building. Proves my point for me as to what a total wet fart JDAM equipped Ukrainian aircraft have been, I think.
[/quote]
Lol. Again. The problem is Ukrainian aircraft shouldn't be able to be providing CAS at all. Yet, with JDAMs, it now can and did.

The impact is insignificant? Sure, having probably less than 12 aircraft able to sortie does that. But you ignoring that simply having JDAMs meant Ukraine could still do CAS meant it worked.

If you trying to argue that JDAMs won't turn the war around, sure. That was always a propaganda narrative by media correspondents seeking the sexy stories.

But arguing that JDAMs had no impact???

[J]

The same MSN which has assured us the Russians have been out of well, everything since late spring of 2022. Along with claiming the Russians have been charging into machine guns and dying by the thousands every day. And of course this latest article is filled with more "allegedly" and "we believe it's likely" statements than anything else.

Or maybe you can listen to a briefing from an actual military officer and admit that:
a) You are being lied to by Western media
b) The situation is far worse for the Ukraine than commonly accepted
c) The Russians are neither stupid nor incompetent



There's a slide near the end which shows Russian supplies of war equipment outpacing Ukrainian ones by anywhere from 3:1 to nearly 20:1, and it's also noted that half of Ukraine's critical infrastructure has been destroyed. Combined with their manpower advantage this only ends one way. I'd suggest looking up the history of the Circassians, that is the fate of the Ukraine should they choose to fight to the end.

[PainRack]

This is what winning looks like.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

Excerpts:

"The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I've seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.

"We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you're setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren't planned for this area.

"We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.

"When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."

They expected Russians who'd spent months digging in and fortifying the position with everything under the sun to run away at the appearance of a handful of foot soldiers in rubber boats? Talk about drinking your own Kool-aid.

"We paid for a lot of our own kit - buying generators, power banks and warm clothes ourselves. Now the frosts are coming, things will only get worse - the real situation is being hushed up, so no-one will change anything.

"No-one knows the goals. Many believe that the command simply abandoned us. The guys believe that our presence had more political than military significance. But we just did our job and didn't get into strategy."

The guys are right, this is performance art for the political masters.

"Several brigades were supposed to be posted here, not individual companies - we just don't have enough men.

"There are a lot of young guys among us. We need people, but trained people, not the green ones we have there now. There are guys who had spent just three weeks in training, and only managed to shoot a few times.

"It's a total nightmare. A year ago, I wouldn't have said that, but now, sorry, I'm fed up.

"Everyone who wanted to volunteer for war came a long time ago - it's too hard now to tempt people with money. Now we're getting those who didn't manage to escape the draft. You'll laugh at this, but some of our marines can't even swim."

But I'm told the Ukrainians have no shortage of men. So where are they?

I note you omitted the BBC account of the Russian soldiers.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c6pe77ed6w8o

So for completion, albeit using Google Translate.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c6pe77ed6w8o

After those attacks, infantrymen crossed the Dnieper and went through the forest to Krynki. “On October 19, 20, 21, we were badly defeated here. But then they sent us marines, and we survived only because of this. I didn’t see any tanks here, they drove them from the other side and were playing around in the Antonovka area. But they captured several of our cars."


Several people have already been captured. Our commander and all his deputies disappeared. We have a difficult situation. Two of our companies were killed during the night. The Ukrainians have entrenched themselves on our side in the Krynok area, and we cannot dislodge them from there yet. We are on duty not every day, but all the time without replacement. There are no people. Plus everyone is afraid..."

A week ago, the Russian military’s radios were taken away for re-flashing, and they fought for six days without communication. “We have been acting as we decide for six days now. Blindly. Now everything has calmed down a little, but everything is shaking here. The dugout is throwing up.”

.We were supposed to go on vacation with the guys on the 23rd. All documents were agreed upon, but at the last moment everything was canceled. We are on the brink here, the situation is extremely unstable,” says one of the contract soldiers. The editors have at their disposal a voice message from the commander of one of the companies that all vacations are prohibited at least until February - and then one person per month will be able to leave. The last time the battalion left for Russia was in June.

Some say that one of the commanders, who was selling permits to travel home, is to blame for the lack of vacations. “Many are ready to pay, but the boys and I are not ready, because this is complete *** [nonsense],” says the soldier. But the BBC could not find direct evidence of this. “What can be done so that this scum finally understands that it is impossible to behave this way during a war? - says one of the military men. “I’ll say this: we have such a moral and psychological state that a little more and we’ll just close the issue ourselves.” The only thing holding me back so far is prison.”


Everyone thought that without a pontoon bridge they would not be able to transport the equipment. Well, they still don’t have a bridge, but they dragged several guns along the river with amphibians. There is definitely confirmation that armored vehicles were already on our shore at night. Plus they have captured ours.” The military man did not say which vehicles the Russian army lost.

In these battles, the commander and his deputies disappeared, whom their subordinates accused of selling vacations.

Now it's normal. But they are already saying that we must be ready to move to Krynki at any moment. I don't know how it will be. We will no longer return to our old positions. It seems to me that it is suicide to move there. Everyone here drinks for courage now. They understand that, most likely, they will have to go.”

“A machine gunner arrived with a bad back”
“There were 26 people left from our company, in the first company - 24, in the second company - 27, in the third company - a little more than 20... There were about a hundred in each,” one of the artillerymen told the BBC.

His colleague sent summer photos of his company: soldiers on the parade ground, soldiers kissing icons, soldiers on the road. “Almost everyone is gone,” he signed.

In actual news, war is hell, soldiers fighting on the front can give very sexy stories.

As for Russian victory.... Eh... Depends on definition of victory to be honest. Zelensky victory condition is out now. The window for his victory condition is gone.

Putin has been shifting his victory conditions, but if we talking about keeping the separatist republics ? Sure.

But if we talking about his Denazification, Demilitarisation and neutral status of Ukraine ?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/ ... putin-says

Lol. Dream on.

[Zwinmar]

Even if Ukraine gave up tomorrow Russia has already lost. Russia has lost too much standing with their complete incompetence and because they breathed life into the zombie that was NATO, with Finland joining Russia put a good portion of his nuclear force into relatively easy strike distance.
This war is far from over, just as it has been going on since 2014, yeah it is possible that Russia 'takes over' it is going to make Afghanistan look like a summer retreat, it already has.

[Solauren]

At this point, the question is this; Who can hold out longer, Russia (who has no backers, only suppliers), or the Ukraine (who has lots of backing and suppliers)

Really, no one outside of Russia can allow Ukraine to fall. Yes, it's going to be expensive to keep Russia from over-running the Ukraine. But it would be more expensive to let Ukraine fall to Russia. That will just encourage Russia to annex more neighbors.

Doing that, will encourage more countries to join military alliances, and effectively put is back in the global political position we were Europe was divided between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, and the USSR attempting and backing Communist Expansion via military expedition.

[Crazedwraith]

How is Ukraine doing for supplies given the Republicans are preventing US aid and Hungary is preventing EU aid?

[KraytKing]

Seems to be holding on just fine, given that MORE divisions of Russian troops are being chewed up in the major battlefronts, the Avdiivka offensive has STILL not captured a town of 30,000 people pre-war, and the Ukrainians have not been pushed back across the Dnipro. If this is what Russia can do with aid stalled, and it only takes a handful of votes to flip to reverse that situation, I don't think anyone can honestly claim Russia has a shot of victory on the battlefield.

Vympel, you continue to use anecdotes to refute my accusation of anecdotal evidence. I'm sure the next anecdote will be the convincing one, though.

Sheesh, usually I'M the pessimist in this thread. Where the fuck did you all come from? Does something about the onset of winter give everyone a Uranus-boner they need to go share?

This is what winning looks like.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67565508

Excerpts:

"The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I've seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.

"We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you're setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren't planned for this area.

"We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.

"When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."

They expected Russians who'd spent months digging in and fortifying the position with everything under the sun to run away at the appearance of a handful of foot soldiers in rubber boats? Talk about drinking your own Kool-aid.

Funny you should mention the flame throwers. One was destroyed in a rather high-profile drone strike just after the Dnipro landings, and they haven't been reported in the area since. Their tube artillery has been decimated, and even their mortars can't hang around for more than a couple minutes at a time or they'll be picked off too. And every Russian report agrees that whole COMPANIES have disappeared trying to throw the ZSU back across the river. So yeah, it fucking sucks to be there on either side. One soldier's story does not a picture paint.

[Vympel]

You subtly shifting your argument from it's systematic pressganging to we have seen incidents of pressgangs capturing draft eligible men.

How do you define systematic? Do you think these soldiers walking around Ukrainain cities bundling unwilling civilians into vehicles to drag them to the front is not the result of an organisation telling them to do this? Are they rogue operators or something?

Amusingly, NYT article just yesterday:



https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/worl ... tment.html

And? We still judging the counteroffensive by what it did, as opposed to the hopes of civilians.

What 'hopes of civilians'? The counteroffensive's goals were its military objectives determined by Ukraine /NATO - not something that civilians just made up.

It failed in its grand strategic option. Not disputing that. The point of contest was when you said it was pure Hopium. The counteroffensive has STILL succeeded in gaining ground, still attrited Russian forces.
That's not Hopium.

It's not hopium, no - but its definitely copium. Literally any defeated force could say they "gained ground" and "attrited the enemy" after launching a failed offensive, including the Germas at Kursk and the Battle of the Bulge.

Like no shit, your giant concentrated attack on a handful of points caused casualties and pushed the enemy back a little? It's the entire reason the Russians built multiple lines of defence in the first place - and the Ukrainian attack was such a failure it barely moved through the gray zone ahead of the main Russian line.

Unless you switching your argument again to oh, Ukraine offensive failed in its strategic goal, with it's forces suffering significant attrition... Oh it has lost the war.

I note that you somehow didn't use THAT tone of voice to describe the Russian failed offensives in 2021 or begining of this year, simply attributing it to density of Ukrainian defences with support of Western intelligence and other aid.

I don't even know what Russians offensives you're referring to, nevermind what I'm supposed to have said. I'm pretty sure though I never engaged in cope about "oh the Russians failed but they did attrition". A failure to achieve a stated objective is a defeat, and the Russians have had plenty of those.

Really? So why was it that Russia was also celebrating gaining literal square kilometers-

I don't know where this is supposed to have happened. Got any examples of who was touting granular gains in "square kilomters?" Whoever said it was engaging in cope, too.

Since Russia is doing the invading, simply survival and pushing them back is success.

No, success would be removing the invader from your territory by inflicting substantive battlefield defeats, which hasn't happened in over a year. "Survival" isn't success, it is, at best, stalemate, a temporary phenommenon that's only a good thing if you can expect to defeat your enemy through attrition. Which Ukraine can't.

Lol. Again. The problem is Ukrainian aircraft shouldn't be able to be providing CAS at all.

LMAO what? According to who? Some absurd fantasy version of aerial warfare where air defences are 100% perfect systems that no aircraft weapon can possibly penetrate? That's a ridiculous standard.

The impact is insignificant? Sure, having probably less than 12 aircraft able to sortie does that. But you ignoring that simply having JDAMs meant Ukraine could still do CAS meant it worked.

If you trying to argue that JDAMs won't turn the war around, sure. That was always a propaganda narrative by media correspondents seeking the sexy stories.

But arguing that JDAMs had no impact???

What impact have they had, pray tell? Like sorry, Russian Su-34s are dropping like a thousand "Orthodox JDAMs" all over the front, every month. Their impact has been the subject of numerous complaints and despairing coverage because of course it is. Where's the Ukrainian JDAM impact, specifically? Apart from David Axe talking about how one time they blew up a house in the service of an offensive that moved Zelensky's drinks cabinet 1km closer to Mariupol?

[Vympel]

Vympel, you continue to use anecdotes to refute my accusation of anecdotal evidence. I'm sure the next anecdote will be the convincing one, though.

I dunno man, I think if the NYT is (see above) doing articles on how Ukrainian recruitment is a nightmare and its recruiters are resorting to widespread illegal conduct I think we're well past 'anecdotal', but I think you just wanna die on this hill now rather than climb off it.

Funny you should mention the flame throwers. One was destroyed in a rather high-profile drone strike just after the Dnipro landings, and they haven't been reported in the area since.

This is an incredibly funny way to reason - i.e. an extremely bad one. Like - shockingly - because you saw a single TOS-1 get blown up online and haven't seen a video of one since doesn't mean that they're not in the area.

Like Jesus Christ, we are two years into this war and you still think what you personally happen to see on social media isn't a highly selective narrow view of what is going on?

Their tube artillery has been decimated-

LOL, sure it has. Cope that Ukraine's boosters* spread as their offensive visibly floundered months ago ("yes our offensive is not moving but that's only because we're 'shaping the battlefield' by destroying Russian artillery!") that people have uncritically repeated ever since, even while article after article on the Ukrainian side complains of shell hunger, an inability to fire more than a few shells a day, and intense Russian artillery superiority.

*Many Ukrainian commentators themselves seem to have nothing but contempt for these fairy tales, as far as I can see from the prominent accounts on social media.

This is what winning looks like.

The way people talk about Krynky like its something other than a total waste of time is Exhibit A in why this PR effort even exists in the first place. The Ukrainians just drove multiple 'western trained' brigades into a meat grinder and lost a massive percentage of irreplaceable much hyped western kit for like 6 months, but don't worry - they're sneaking a platoon of cannon fodder at a time over the Dneiper to maintain a bridghead for no clear purpose whatsoever. Of course the troops are asking about the reason why they're doing this - noone could seriously believe that they're capable of actually getting signficant quantities of armor over the river and actually sustaining them for any sort of meaningful offensive action.

[J]

The way people talk about Krynky like its something other than a total waste of time is Exhibit A in why this PR effort even exists in the first place. The Ukrainians just drove multiple 'western trained' brigades into a meat grinder and lost a massive percentage of irreplaceable much hyped western kit for like 6 months, but don't worry - they're sneaking a platoon of cannon fodder at a time over the Dneiper to maintain a bridghead for no clear purpose whatsoever. Of course the troops are asking about the reason why they're doing this - noone could seriously believe that they're capable of actually getting signficant quantities of armor over the river and actually sustaining them for any sort of meaningful offensive action.

There are times when I'm not sure if Western military & political leaders are really this dumb or the Russians pulled off one of the greatest disinformation campaigns in ages. Everyone was convinced the Ukrainians would somehow punch through multiple defensive lines with fully entrenched forces and millions of mines when they have effectively no air support, a 10:1 disadvantage in artillery & drones, and a significant disadvantage in everything else. Even the briefings given by the people who drew up this disaster emphasized that the Russians would run for their lives upon seeing glorious NATO equipped troops, it's like they thought it would be Desert Storm all over again.

[Vympel]

There are times when I'm not sure if Western military & political leaders are really this dumb or the Russians pulled off one of the greatest disinformation campaigns in ages. Everyone was convinced the Ukrainians would somehow punch through multiple defensive lines with fully entrenched forces and millions of mines when they have effectively no air support, a 10:1 disadvantage in artillery & drones, and a significant disadvantage in everything else. Even the briefings given by the people who drew up this disaster emphasized that the Russians would run for their lives upon seeing glorious NATO equipped troops, it's like they thought it would be Desert Storm all over again.

I think this far in, in general its clearly a case of Believing Your Own Bullshit. Members of the political class aren't immune from the propaganda they cause to be put out, and the people who can and do know better (see some of the more informed twitterati) have kept their mouth shut until very recently* because there is absolutely no upside to speaking up.

*And even then, are still very selective when they elect to speak up

Like there are clearly zero professional or reputational consequences for just being catastrophically wrong and saying all manner of fantastical nonsense, so the incentives among those who should know better just tend towards spewing bullshit. Look at the gaggle of retired US generals who have been doing their part - like Ben Hodges, who at the beginning of this year was predicting the Ukrainians were going to take back Crimea by August*. Either he's just a deeply stupid and unqualified man who somehow found himself in an extremely high military command, or more likely he's just gleefully spreading war propaganda he knows he'll never be called out on. Not by anyone who matters, anyway.

*He has since modified his output to screaming for Ukraine to be supplied with long-range missiles because this will supposedly make Crimea 'untenable'.

Equivalent (English-speaking) figures on the 'zigger' side can be easily dismissed by westerners because they're clearly marginal fringe whackjobs howling into the wind online, but from the Western side of the propaganda war its an entirely different level of sophistication and qualification.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine has been asking for long-range missiles since the beginning. The USA is working on that: U.S. tests new missiles for HIMARS systems

The United States has successfully conducted qualification tests of new missiles for the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS systems, which are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 150 kilometers, reports the Lockheed Martin company.

The test was conducted at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in New Mexico. Missiles with alternative and unitary warheads were used.

ER GMLRS was tested at various distances, including a maximum range of 150 km.

In general, the tests have been ongoing for the past two years. They have repeatedly confirmed the ability of the new projectiles to integrate with the HIMARS launcher, as well as the range, trajectory, and accuracy of the kill.

Upon completion of the tests, the company will continue operational testing with the U.S. Army.
Modifications of ER GMLRS missiles

Today, there are the following GMLRS missile modifications:

GMLRS Unitary - has a unitary warhead weighing 200 pounds, which provides accurate engagement of point targets at a distance of more than 70 kilometers.

Alternative Warhead (AW) for Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) - The AW-guided munition for MLRS was the first munition developed to engage area targets without the effects of unexploded ordnance, which is consistent with U.S. Department of Defense policy and international conventions on the use of cluster munitions. The AW variant has a range of more than 70 kilometers and is equipped with a 200-pound high explosive warhead.

Extended Range Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (ER MLRS) - a new development of the GMLRS family, the ER GMLRS offers an extended range of up to 150 kilometers in all weather conditions. The projectile has common features with traditional GMLRS and can be deployed using HIMARS and MLRS M270 family launchers. The missiles have a larger engine and increased maneuverability due to tail control.

[Vympel]

Ukraine has been asking for long-range missiles since the beginning. The USA is working on that:

The US isn't working on that, no. These missiles are being developed for the US, not for Ukraine. And 150km doesn't given them any capability they didn't already basically have with Tochka-U (all expended by now) anyway.

If the US was interested in giving Ukraine real long range missiles they would have given them full-range ATACMS missiles by now, but they still haven't. There's multiple reasons for that, including that the missile is out of production and they need them for a potential war in the Pacific.

Also this war clearly still has some rules. The US won't permit Ukraine to strike 'legal' Russian territory with western weapons (i.e. Block I ATACMS, GMLRS, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG) probably because that is escalatory - it places Russia's rear areas under fire while Ukraine's rear areas (i.e. NATO in Eastern Europe) are not.

It's also a good idea not to permit it because its not a worthwhile escalation given the risks. There's no target that Ukraine can strike with realistic quantities of the above weapons in Russia proper that would meaningfully affect the outcome of the war anyway.

[wautd]

I'd suggest looking up the history of the Circassians, that is the fate of the Ukraine should they choose to fight to the end.

Given Russia's genocidal intend, surrender isn't an option for Ukraine. They have no other option but to resist against Russia's unprovoked aggression.

[Vympel]

Given Russia's genocidal intend

That's the silliest exaggeration about this war I've ever heard, and can be dismissed out of hand for the obvious inflammatory nonsense it is. Like yeah ok, Russia pursued the Minsk II agreements with the intent of federalizing Ukraine and prevent its NATO entry for 8 years - without result - and then sent an expeditionary force of barely 200,000 troops into a country of ~30 million, engaged in peace talks even while the invasion was going on - and then at some point as if by magic its goals went from merely neutralising Ukraine to genocide of its people. Makes total sense. And the evidence of this genocide is ... what, exactly? Are they running extermination camps somewhere?

[wautd]

Given Russia's genocidal intend

That's the silliest exaggeration about this war I've ever heard, and can be dismissed out of hand for the obvious inflammatory nonsense it is. Like yeah ok, Russia pursued the Minsk II agreements for 8 years without result and then sent an expeditionary force of barely 200,000 troops to force a surrender because its goals went from neutralising Ukraine to genocide of its people. Makes total sense. And the evidence of this genocide is ... what, exactly? Are they running extermination camps somewhere?

Russia persued the Minsk agreementsfor 8 years? They completely ignored it.
Apart the cultural genocide of anything Ukrainian in Russian occupied territories, the deliberate bombing of Ukrainian civilian targets, the filtration camps, the torture basements and systematic rape and castration of prisoners, the ethnical cleansing campaign of Ukrainians in Russian occupied territories (eg. deportations, withholding basic services, jobs and medical aid to Ukrainians without a Russian passport,...) I have no evidence.
Oh wait, there was also the little matter of genocidal rhetoric on official Russian state media since the start of the full scale invasion (eg "What Russia Should Do with Ukraine" )

engaged in peace talks even while the invasion was going on

Oh right, the good will gesture of "give us everything we want and there will be peace". I cannot phantom how there are still people who thrust anything that the Putin says. That Mafiosi dictator has broken every promise and treaty ever made

[LadyTevar]

Given Russia's genocidal intend

That's the silliest exaggeration about this war I've ever heard, and can be dismissed out of hand for the obvious inflammatory nonsense it is. Like yeah ok, Russia pursued the Minsk II agreements for 8 years without result and then sent an expeditionary force of barely 200,000 troops to force a surrender because its goals went from neutralising Ukraine to genocide of its people. Makes total sense. And the evidence of this genocide is ... what, exactly? Are they running extermination camps somewhere?

Russia persued the Minsk agreementsfor 8 years? They completely ignored it.
Apart the cultural genocide of anything Ukrainian in Russian occupied territories, the deliberate bombing of Ukrainian civilian targets, the filtration camps, the torture basements and systematic rape and castration of prisoners, the ethnical cleansing campaign of Ukrainians in Russian occupied territories (eg. deportations, withholding basic services, jobs and medical aid to Ukrainians without a Russian passport,...) I have no evidence.
Oh wait, there was also the little matter of genocidal rhetoric on official Russian state media since the start of the full scale invasion (eg "What Russia Should Do with Ukraine" )

Not to mention the Ukrainian children who have been taken into Russia and vanished.
Oh wait, they did find one, who had been "adopted" by one of Putin's buddies.
Where's the other thousand?

[Vympel]

Russia persued the Minsk agreementsfor 8 years? They completely ignored it.

LOL what? How did the Russians ignore Minsk II? That would be the peace treaty they imposed on Ukraine by force? Why would they not want to implement that? Are you even aware that western leaders have openly gloated that they had no intention of ever pushing Ukraine to implement Minsk II and it was all a farce to arm Ukraine?

Apart the cultural genocide of anything Ukrainian in Russian occupied territories-

Russian occupied territories are predominantly Russian-speaking territories full of ethnic Russians. Only people totally ignorant of the demographic makeup of these territories could seriously buy the notion of 'Ukrainian cultural genocide' in say, Mariupol, a city about as Ukrainian as I am. Are they the victims of 'cultural genocide' by Ukraine? You know, given the government insists on 'Ukrainianization' and treats its Russian speaking people as a foreign element to be discriminated against?

In 2019, the outgoing Poroshenko government instituted a language law mandating Ukrainian, and not Russian, be used in all aspects of public life. It got even worse after the war began, with open Russian book burnings and similar outburts of ethnonationalist bullshit. Is that cultural genocide? Are the obvious right wing ethno-nationalist imperatives of Ukraine immune from such labels because Russia bad?

Or is this 'cultural genocide' thing just an inane exaggeration being promulgated by war mongers who want to make up reasons for why the war has to be fought to the bitter end rather than at the negotiating table?

Like sorry, but I don't think this war needs to go on for years and invite umpteen more war crimes and waves of far right reaction because some ethnonationalist or other feels a certain way about the other guy's language.

the deliberate bombing of Ukrainian civilian targets

Do you think deliberate bombing of civilian targets constitutes genocide? By that standard every single war ever fought with bombs has been genocidal, so that's clearly stupid. And also that would make the Ukrainians genocidal, given they've been relenetlessly shelling Donetsk and other civilian areas of the Donbas since 2015 basically without pause.

the filtration camps the torture basements and systematic rape and castration of prisoners, the ethnical cleansing campaign of Ukrainians in Russian occupied territories (eg. deportations, withholding basic services, jobs and medical aid to Ukrainians without a Russian passport,...) I have no evidence.

LMAO. Yeah ok so your evidence of the "crime of crimes" in international law is reciting a list of war crimes (in which Ukraine has also engaged - particularly the castration thing) and abuses and trying to launder those claims into a 'genocide'.

Is there any war that you wouldn't consider genocidal, by that standard? Russia is an invading army and the answer to whether war crimes will occur is "duh". War crimes !=genocide.

Oh wait, there was also the little matter of genocidal rhetoric on official Russian state media since the start of the full scale invasion (eg "What Russia Should Do with Ukraine" )

Oh wow, some random Russian journalist wrote a screed on "state media", that must mean its the official policy of the Russian state to carry out this dude's every desire! That's how working for "state media" works, right?

So in sum, you live in a parallel reality where Russia didn't want to comply with Minsk II, the peace deal which Ukraine hated and gave Russia what it wanted, and Russia didn't engage in peace talks with Ukraine even months into the invasion, it was all a cover for a so-called "genocide" which has been verified to have killed ~11,000 civilians in 2 years of war (how many civilians have been killed in Gaza in 2 months, by comparison?). Talk about an ineffective genocide.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russians celebrate shooting down a jet before realising it was one of their own

Russian troops celebrated shooting down a Ukrainian fighter jet – only to realise it was one of their own planes.

The Su-25 jet is suspected to have been shot down by a Buk-M3 surface to air missile system – and initial Russian reports celebrated hitting a Ukrainian plane.

But Ukraine’s air force commander has insisted it was instead a Russian plane that was downed – by its own side.

General Mykola Oleshchuk said: ‘I can confidently say that it was not Ukrainian air defence that shot down the Russian Su-25 attack aircraft.

‘These were clear and coordinated actions of Russian anti-aircraft gunners, for which many thanks from the entire Ukrainian people.’

Russian reports, some of which claimed the incident happened near Yelyzavetivka in the Mykolaiv region, later backtracked and claimed the plane had crashed while flying low in poor visibility.

The friendly fire claim follows another extraordinary recent incident when footage caught a Russian Su-25 fighter almost downed by sustained fire from a Grad multiple rocket launcher.

Miraculously, the plane was not hit in the dramatic sequence.

Russia has suffered a succession of friendly fire nightmares during Putin’s war against Ukraine.

In the most recent known case, Major-General Vladimir Zavadsky, 45, of Russia’s 14th Army Corps, was killed by one of his own landmines after being shot at with friendly mortar fire when he drove a military vehicle captured from the Ukrainians.

In a separate incident, a Russian Su-34 bomber was damaged in a kamikaze drone strike on a military airfield in Rostov region, which borders Ukraine.

Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels showed pictures of the shrapnel-damaged warplane belonging to Vladimir Putin’s 559th Guards Bomber Guards Regiment.

[Lord Revan]

Considering both sides use the same equipment friendly fire incidents are bound to happen.

[wautd]

Just how many Kremlin talking points can you parrot?

Russia persued the Minsk agreementsfor 8 years? They completely ignored it.

LOL what? How did the Russians ignore Minsk II? That would be the peace treaty they imposed on Ukraine by force? Why would they not want to implement that? Are you even aware that western leaders have openly gloated that they had no intention of ever pushing Ukraine to implement Minsk II and it was all a farce to arm Ukraine?

Minsk agreements included an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, which was ignored by the pro-Russian separatist terrorists and the little green men (Russian soldiers) fighting alongside them.
It included the restoration of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine, which never happened.
It included the withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides, which didn't happen. Or do you think that Flight MH-17 was shot down by a farmer with shotgun?
It included withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries, which clearly didn't happen (what with Russian mercenaries, militias groups and soldiers fighting alongside separatist bandits for 8 years)

Russian occupied territories are predominantly Russian-speaking territories full of ethnic Russians. Only people totally ignorant of the demographic makeup of these territories could seriously buy the notion of 'Ukrainian cultural genocide' in say, Mariupol, a city about as Ukrainian as I am. Are they the victims of 'cultural genocide' by Ukraine? You know, given the government insists on 'Ukrainianization' and treats its Russian speaking people as a foreign element to be discriminated against? In 2019, the outgoing Poroshenko government instituted a language law mandating Ukrainian, and not Russian, be used in all aspects of public life.

What's wrong with having an official state language? In the USA, the official language is English. Doesn't mean it's waging a cultural genocide against it's Latin speaking population. How does this warrant Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine?
And weird how anti Russian sentiments increased after Russia's full scale invasion and Russian terror bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities. Imagine that.

Or is this 'cultural genocide' thing just an inane exaggeration being promulgated by war mongers who want to make up reasons for why the war has to be fought to the bitter end rather than at the negotiating table?

That Russia is waging a cultural genocide in Ukraine's occupied territories isn't an inane exaggeration but a fact. Just as much a fact as how Russian propaganda tends to blame the victims of what they are doing themselves.
And I think that the actual warmongers are the people who think its OK to invade and destroy a neighboring country over something like language laws. Ukraine has every right to self-defend itself against Russia's aggression and try whatever it can to kick the invader out of their borders.
How can you make peace when Russia’s goals haven’t changed? Ukraine should just give up a third of its country, including Odessa, which basically will make them loose their entire coast line and economically cripple them forever?
And are you that naïve to think you can appease someone like Putin by giving him what he wants?

Like sorry, but I don't think this war needs to go on for years and invite umpteen more war crimes and waves of far right reaction because some ethnonationalist or other feels a certain way about the other guy's language.

I don't want that this war will drag on for years either, but go tell that to Putin. Peace with his regime is nothing more than a temporary cease fire where Russia will rebuild its strength for his next invasions.

Do you think deliberate bombing of civilian targets constitutes genocide? By that standard every single war ever fought with bombs has been genocidal, so that's clearly stupid.

What's your point here? That you don't see a difference between military and civilian targets? Deliberately bombing civilian targets/concentrations of civilians (like the Mariupol theatre, train stations full of refugees,...) are the logical end station of a regime that's waging a genocidal war. Putin wants Ukraine with as little as much Ukrainians in it.

given they've been relenetlessly shelling Donetsk and other civilian areas of the Donbas since 2015 basically without pause

That's a complete flat out lie. What's next, are you going to parrot that tired old lie that Ukraine killed 14000 civilians in Donetsk and Donbass during those 8 years too?
The vast majority of the fighting was between combatants of both sides, and occurred in 2014 - early 2015 after which the conflict became stagnant. The vast majority of the shelling happened on the front lines, not in cities. And most, if not all civilians (a few dozens per year since then) that died since then (a few dozens per year) were because of land mines, that could have been planted by either side.
Even Prigozhin of Wagner Group prior to his little march to Moscow admitted that Putin’s reasons were all bullshit, that the invasions were unprovoked, and that the fighting was happening on the front lines.

LMAO. Yeah ok so your evidence of the "crime of crimes" in international law is reciting a list of war crimes (in which Ukraine has also engaged - particularly the castration thing) and abuses and trying to launder those claims into a 'genocide'.

Is there any war that you wouldn't consider genocidal, by that standard? Russia is an invading army and the answer to whether war crimes will occur is "duh". War crimes !=genocide.

Again, more Russian propaganda blaming the victims of their war crimes. And how is castration not a war crime typically related to a genocidal agenda?

Oh wow, some random Russian journalist wrote a screed on "state media", that must mean its the official policy of the Russian state to carry out this dude's every desire! That's how working for "state media" works, right?

Your naivety is adorable. Russian state media is heavily censored, and free and independent journalism has been outlawed. So when genocidal rhetoric is published by a Russian state controlled news agency, you can be sure it’s done intentionally
Also, I just gave one example. There’s plenty of more examples of Russians dehumanization campaign over the past years

[Steel]

I'm interested in why there is a lot of Ukraine dooming going on now. Their situation is dire, and by all rights they should lose this in the end, but that was even more true on day one of the full scale invasion in Feb '22. Russia is weaker now than at any time since the start of the war, while Ukraine has basically the largest army it has had since 2014.

From the video J linked above which had a slide on supply, while the Russian forces are sending more equipment than Ukraine to the front (for heavy equipment this is 10% new production, 90% restored from long term storage) in the best category for the Russians their visually confirmed losses are 5x their total production capacity. They have limited stocks of soviet equipment, which is going to get ever more rusty the deeper they go into it, so they can't sustain these losses for even another year or two at present rates.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/stat ... 1479240140


To me it doesn't look like Ukrainians want to be subjugated any time soon, certainly the ones I know are as opposed to it as ever. It seems things are going to go on until there is some attritional tipping point reached and either political will or an economy breaks down. With no future aid from the US, EU or other parts then this could be sooner rather than later for Ukraine, but assuming aid resumes then Ukraine will be in the best position since 2014.