Chinese Military woes... Corruption worse than assumed...

[LaCroix]

Some may have noticed that there was quite abit of a kerfuffle this year with chinese military leadership, and Bloomberg has a really good article on it..

(may be paywalled for you...)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... corruption

There is a very nicely done summary/analysis/opinion piece on this channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oupSYGUL0dE

Tldr version:
Chinese military pretty much as corrupt as the Russian one.
Missiles turn out to be 'fueled' with water, Silo doors are not functional, rampant misuse of material (aircraft and missile fuel used for cooking).
And these are just the things that made their way out.

I agree mostly with the opinion stated in the video - China has always been a very cautious military nation, living the principle to never wage a war they have not won before the shooting starts. Any planned attack on Taiwan would have to be one of the 'three day' invasion styles, or China would face massive issues.
Given the rampant issues, and the fact that they have witnessed in the last two year of the failed Russian invasion how many issues this would cause in an active campain, any invasion of Taiwan will only take place once they went over their military with a very fine-toothed one.

The only point I disagree is regarding the conclusion:
The point that China is facing a demografic nightmare even worse of the one looming over Russia is pretty much putting a hard time limit on any attack on Taiwan is true, but I do not agree with the conclusion that this means China will shelve the idea. I see a 50-50 potential that it means they will attack sooner, as right now, the West is literally involved in 3 wars - Ukraine, Gaza and the Houti raids. The remaining hot phase of the Gaza conflict is not going to last any longer than a couple more months, so there is another timer ticking.

Then there is the Us election, which is also causing distress in the Western alliance.
While Trump in the White House might be somewhat better for china, the US has too much investment in Taiwan to not get involved on their behalf, even the most hardline Trumpists know that.

[LaCroix]

Taiwan elections - big middle finger to China...

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia ... index.html#

Let's see how that turns out - just for the files - who had Chinese invasion on their bingo card?

[LadyTevar]

I think this amounts to China shaking their finger and going TskTsk?

China Says US "Gravely Wrong" to Congratulate Taiwan New Leader

China has accused the US of sending "a gravely wrong signal" to those pushing for Taiwan's independence after Saturday's election result.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent Taiwanese president-elect William Lai a message of congratulations following the result.

Beijing called the message aviolation of Washington's commitment to maintain only unofficial ties with Taiwan.
Mr Lai has vowed to protect Taiwan from an increasingly aggressive China.
But Beijing sees Taiwan as its territory and fiercely challenges any government that says otherwise.

Messages of congratulations for Taiwan's new leader poured in from all over the world after the election, including from Mr Blinken - who emphasised the partnership between Taipei and Washington, which he said was rooted in democratic values.
"We look forward to working with Dr Lai and Taiwan's leaders of all parties to advance our shared interests and values," he said in a statement.
Mr Blinken also stressed that the US, one of Taiwan's biggest allies, is "committed to maintaining cross-strait peace and stability".
The top US diplomat was also quick to say that such collaboration should "further our longstanding unofficial relationship" and be "consistent with the US One China policy".
Under the policy, the US recognises and has formal ties with China rather than the island of Taiwan, which China sees as a breakaway province to be unified with the mainland one day.

Mr Blinken's remarks drew sharp criticism from Beijing, which views any statement of support for Taiwan as lending legitimacy to a candidate and political party it sees as a gang of separatists hoping to turn Taiwan into an independent sovereign nation.
In a statement, China's foreign ministry said Mr Blinken's congratulations violated the US's promise to maintain "only cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations" with Taiwan.
It stressed that the Taiwan question is "the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations" and said it had lodged a formal diplomatic complaint.
"China firmly opposes the US having any form of official interaction with Taiwan and interfering in Taiwan affairs in any way or under any pretext."

Beijing's statement will likely serve as a warning to Washington after it sent an unofficial delegation of former US officials to hold talks with leading political figures in Taiwan just hours after the self-ruled island elected Mr Lai.
Deployed by US President Joe Biden, who himself welcomed the election results, the delegation includes a former US national security adviser and a former deputy secretary of state.
Other Western countries, including the UK, France and Germany, congratulated the new leader.

Beijing's Communist government reviles Mr Lai's pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has governed Taiwan for eight years.
That is because China sees any statement of support towards the DPP as lending legitimacy to politicians, which Beijing sees as a gang of separatists hoping to turn Taiwan into an independent sovereign nation.

[LadyTevar]

But I don't think China has to worry about Taiwan Independence for another generation -- the Youth have their own Concerns, and they told BBC News all about it.

It's not War Young Voters Worry about, It's JOBS

Ziwei can still remember the months she spent huddling alone in a tiny shoebox apartment in Taipei.

There was no window in the 10-sq-m studio, just a small vent near the ceiling. It perpetually stank of sewage, even after she stuffed her shower drain with plastic bags. And the walls were painted in just the oddest shade of orange.

"With no windows, I felt so sad," the 32-year-old recalled. "I would stay out really late every night, and I would come home only to sleep."

But it was all she could afford in 2019 after breaking up with her boyfriend and moving out. Though she was a civil servant - considered to be a good job - her monthly pay was NT$40,000 ($1,285; £1,011) at the time, well below the national average.

Low wages and housing will be on the minds of Ziwei and six million Taiwanese voters under the age of 40 on Saturday, when they choose their president and parliament.

As it does at every election, the question of China's claims on Taiwan and how the island should respond to Beijing's threats looms large. But this time voters are more concerned about the economy.

A recent survey of 15,000 Taiwanese by Commonwealth Magazine saw most stating that economic development should be their next president's top priority, over national security and cross-strait relations. It was especially crucial for respondents aged between 20 and 39.

[ray245]

Taiwan elections - big middle finger to China...

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia ... index.html#

Let's see how that turns out - just for the files - who had Chinese invasion on their bingo card?

Not really full story considering DPP only won a minority government because the opposition votes got split due to the new third party running.

[Solauren]

Realistically, the easiest way for China to take Taiwan back is economically.

Start up companies there, but up land there, all of it controlled by the Chinese government.
i.e 'Red Car Company', claims to be public, but really, it's a Chinese Government company.

Over the course of a generation, gain control of 50% or more of the countries economy. Start influencing voters, politicos, and the like.

At the same time, make it appear that if China was running things, those companies would pay 15% more, 20% more.

Then, either wait until the Taiwan government says something that could 'upset' China, and pull all that out, or create a "China Unification Party", and get them into power to the point they can say 'Hey China...', and everyone believe it.

[aerius]

Taiwanese independence will not be a problem for China once everyone in my generation is dead. We're the last generation where a significant number of us have strong anti-China sentiments, resistance is over once we're no longer a major voting block. Probably won't even have to wait that long, my parent's generation is the one which is the most hostile towards China and almost all of them will be dead in another 10-15 years or so.

Like it or not China has time on their side, all they need to do is wait for demographics to change in their favour and they can grab Taiwan, I believe their target date is 2049.

[Solauren]

I'd still do the economic stuff as leverage 'just in case'.

But, I must agree with your assessment, Aerius. You are not the first person to tell me that, and nearly all of them were from that area of the world.

[Zaune]

The question is, does China actually want to annex Taiwan? Because if they accomplish that objective then they're going to lose a convenient drum to beat whenever they need to distract their population from domestic affairs, not to mention the massive headache they'll have integrating a province that's used to amenities like more than one legal political party and a free press.

[LadyTevar]

The question is, does China actually want to annex Taiwan? Because if they accomplish that objective then they're going to lose a convenient drum to beat whenever they need to distract their population from domestic affairs, not to mention the massive headache they'll have integrating a province that's used to amenities like more than one legal political party and a free press.

And we saw how Well That Worked with HongKong!

[PainRack]

Some may have noticed that there was quite abit of a kerfuffle this year with chinese military leadership, and Bloomberg has a really good article on it..

(may be paywalled for you...)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... corruption

There is a very nicely done summary/analysis/opinion piece on this channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oupSYGUL0dE

Tldr version:
Chinese military pretty much as corrupt as the Russian one.
Missiles turn out to be 'fueled' with water, Silo doors are not functional, rampant misuse of material (aircraft and missile fuel used for cooking).
And these are just the things that made their way out.

I agree mostly with the opinion stated in the video - China has always been a very cautious military nation, living the principle to never wage a war they have not won before the shooting starts. Any planned attack on Taiwan would have to be one of the 'three day' invasion styles, or China would face massive issues.
Given the rampant issues, and the fact that they have witnessed in the last two year of the failed Russian invasion how many issues this would cause in an active campain, any invasion of Taiwan will only take place once they went over their military with a very fine-toothed one.

The only point I disagree is regarding the conclusion:
The point that China is facing a demografic nightmare even worse of the one looming over Russia is pretty much putting a hard time limit on any attack on Taiwan is true, but I do not agree with the conclusion that this means China will shelve the idea. I see a 50-50 potential that it means they will attack sooner, as right now, the West is literally involved in 3 wars - Ukraine, Gaza and the Houti raids. The remaining hot phase of the Gaza conflict is not going to last any longer than a couple more months, so there is another timer ticking.

Then there is the Us election, which is also causing distress in the Western alliance.
While Trump in the White House might be somewhat better for china, the US has too much investment in Taiwan to not get involved on their behalf, even the most hardline Trumpists know that.

The argument is essentially based on a low trust US intelligence argument where Chinese sources were quoted as using rocket fuel to cook hot pot and filling rockets with water.


1. Using rocket fuel to cook stuff is insanely dangerous, with risk of poisoning yourself. But then again, young men are stupid n dumb. Putting water into rockets makes them unusable. However, using liquids as ballast because you DONT keep rockets fueled at all times, because rocket fuel, especially China older missiles will corrode the missile.

2. On the other hand, PLA and Xi has acknowledged shortfalls, including "needs of troops unmet".

The best way to put this into context is

https://time.com/6212698/nuclear-missil ... d-upgrade/

An aging missile force, even with new gewgaws like DF III and privileged elites is now facing rejuvenation problems, with old equipment failing.

It's not a unique problem, as the US own silo force reports. It's IS however more problematic for China since unlike US, their tactical strike missiles are under the 2nd Force, not the USN or USAF.