UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[LadyTevar]

VYMPEL, YOU WERE WARNED TO STAY ON TOPIC. YOU WERE WARNED THAT I WOULD BE WATCHING THIS THREAD CAREFULLY AND THAT GOING OFF ON TANGENTS FROM THE MAIN TOPIC WOULD BE PUNISHED.

AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WARNED WOULD HAPPEN IF ANYONE BROKE THESE RULES. YOU, VYMPEL, HAVE NOT ONLY BROKEN THESE RULES, YOU HAVE AGAIN BEEN DISHONEST IN YOUR ARGUMENTS AND BROKEN THE RULES OF THIS BOARD.

VYMPEL HAS BEEN TEMPORIARILY BANNED, PENDING REVIEW BY THE ADMIN.

[PainRack]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... -uk-2024-1



UK MOD estimates Russia is getting 100 tanks a month, equivalent to current loss ratio, allowing them to keep up their strength at a time when Ukraine access to future munitions is jeopardised due to US politics.

[bilateralrope]

This article is from a week ago, but I don't think it was posted:

Ukrainian Drones Are Burning Down Russia’s Oil And Gas Industry

David Hambling
Senior Contributor
I'm a South London-based technology journalist, consultant and author

Jan 25, 2024,06:43am EST

Last night the Russian Rosneft oil refinery at Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai was ablaze, cellphone video showing flames reaching high into the night sky. A Telegram news channel said witnesses saw a drone hit the refinery immediately before the fire started.

This is the just the latest in what looks like a co-ordinated series of attacks against Russian oil and gas installations.

Bringing The Detonator

On January 19th, four oil tanks at a large Rosneft storage facility in the town of Klintsy in Russia's western Bryansk region caught fire. Klintsty is just a few miles from the border with Ukraine.

"An aeroplane-style drone was brought down by the defence ministry using radio-electronic means. When the aerial target was destroyed, its munitions were dropped on the territory of the Klintsy oil depot," regional governor Alexander Bogomaz wrote on Telegram.

On 21st January a major fire accompanied by explosions broke out at gas terminal at Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg, which the operators said was caused by “external action.”

A pro-Kremlin Telegram channel said before the Ust-Luga fire their forces had shot down a drone carrying 3 kilos/ 7 pounds of explosive. They describe it as a piston-engined aircraft with a wingspan of about 20 feet.

These attacks are based on the principle which TX Hammes described in a 2016 article on drone warfare as “bringing the detonator.” Small, low-cost drones do not carry the weight of explosive as traditional strike aircraft, but with good targeting they can strike stockpiles of ammunition or fuel.

“Against these targets even a few ounces of explosives delivered directly to the target can initiate the secondary explosion that will destroy the target,” Hammes wrote.

The Houthis showed how small drones can have a disproportionate effect, setting the Abqaiq oil plant ablaze in 2019, simultaneous attacks on Aramco facilities in Ras Tanura, Rabigh, Yanbu and Jizan in 2021, and a starting spectacular fire under the gaze of the world’s media outside Jeddah in the run-up to the Saudi Arabian F1 Grand Prix in 2022.

Ukraine’s Shahed Arsenal

When Russia started bombarding Ukraine with Iranian-built Shahed kamikaze drones, people started asking when the Ukrainians would send their own. The Shahed is unsophisticated, the most advanced elements being commercial electronic components from China, Europe and the U.S. and costs in the region of $20k-$40k. Ukraine has an extensive drone ecosystem, and designing, building and testing long-range strike drones, then moving them into production and service, has taken a matter of months.

Ukraine now has quite an array of long-range attack drones – HI Sutton just produced this neat guide to the major types – which typically carry a 45 kg /100 lbs warhead to about 1000 km/ 600 miles.

In November, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industries, said that the country was making “dozens” of Shahed-type drones per month. In December he announced plans for production on a much larger scale.

“We are already capable of producing more than 10,000 medium-range (hundreds of kilometers) unmanned combat aerial vehicles and 1,000+ drones with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers next year,” Kamyshin told Ukrainian media.

In particular, drones like the new AQ-400 Scythe made by Terminal Autonomy are designed for ease of mass production. The Scythe’s body is made from pre-cut plywood sections, produced by companies that normally make furniture, and can be assembled by unskilled labor with basic tools. Terminal Autonomy aim to produce 500 Scythes per month in the first quarter this year.

Strategic Targets

This volume of drones may be enough to achieve strategic goals.

Russia used its Shaheds alongside missiles last winter to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, knocking out electrical transformers and substations in an attempt to freeze Ukraine into submission. This approach is being repeated this year but with limited success.

But if Russia hopes to win by ice, Ukraine's drone war is going for fire: burning down Russia’s vital oil and gas industry.

A commenter using the Twitter handle ((Tendar)) notes that Russia has just five major strategic pipelines ending in sea ports, three on the Baltic and two on the Black Sea. Other Russian pipelines go overland through Ukraine or NATO countries and are subject to sanctions. The attacks have so far hit two of the five sea ports. Operations at Ust-Luga will be suspended for some weeks, during which time there may be further strikes.

Oil and gas exports are a key pillar in sustaining Russia’s economy. Potential customers may be reluctant to send tankers to a terminal which is under continuous drone attack. As in the Red Sea, the threat may be more important than the level of risk.

Meanwhile the Russian people are suffering waves of heating and power cuts. According to the Moscow Times, 43 regions are suffering municipal emergencies, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with heating or electricity cut off. These are caused by ageing infrastructure and inadequate spending on maintaining it – a situation which will not be improved by a 43% cut in spending on housing and utilities this year. Disruption of oil and gas supplies can only cause further problems.

Russia has transitioned to a war economy, but is looking increasingly fragile. Massive military spending is keeping the economy afloat but nobody knows how long this can be sustained.

A vast number of oil and gas facilities are now within range of Ukrainian attacks. Defending all of them would be impossible, even if the air defenses were pulled back from the front line. In any case, Russia’s current air defense systems are not effective against small drones.

It looks like all Putin can do now is sit back and watch his oil and gas industry go up in flames – and hope that this does not trigger economic collapse, a coup, or mass uprisings.

How badly could this hurt Russia's ability to produce and fuel tanks and other vehicles ?

[Juubi Karakuchi]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... -uk-2024-1



UK MOD estimates Russia is getting 100 tanks a month, equivalent to current loss ratio, allowing them to keep up their strength at a time when Ukraine access to future munitions is jeopardised due to US politics.

That would seem to make sense in light of the current situation. But it doesn't say outright whether those 100 tanks are all new builds, or whether that includes refits from storage. If the former, the situation is worse than it looks for Ukraine. If the latter, then it's not quite so bad.

[PainRack]

This article is from a week ago, but I don't think it was posted:

Ukrainian Drones Are Burning Down Russia’s Oil And Gas Industry

[
How badly could this hurt Russia's ability to produce and fuel tanks and other vehicles ?

Producing the fuel was never the problem. It's getting them to the units in question that was and the more static lines has made it easier for Russia to do so. Ukraine lacks the strike/interdiction capabilities to do a knockout blow that way and much of what she did successfully last year requires sustained munitions delivery .....


France has stepped up but with Gaza and other hotspots, including NK, the supply of basic shell munitions, PGM and long range munitions to Ukraine is shaky and not adequate for Ukraine wants.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Those vehicles will only be as good as the crews, and considering the poor quality of the training soldiers on the front line have and how poor the survival rates of destroyed tank crews are, so unless their tank crews receive way better training than the infantry, Russia is going to have a shortage of experienced tankers to man those tanks.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukrainian army demonstrates progress in transitioning to NATO standards - ISW

Ukraine is making efforts to bring its Armed Forces up to the standards of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Western partners are assisting the country in building its own defense-industrial base, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the Ministry of Defense, from December 2023 to January 2024, Ukraine implemented over 18 NATO standards. These standards include aspects related to the protection of personnel, communication training for the naval forces, as well as procedures for information and transportation systems.

According to ISW, Western partners continue to make efforts to develop their own defense-industrial base in support of Ukraine.

Armin Papperger, the CEO of the German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall, stated in an interview with Bild on January 28 that Rheinmetall is building a new ammunition production plant in Germany to establish "strategic security of supply" and ensure uninterrupted supply to Ukraine.

"Papperger also noted that Rheinmetall received over 10 billion Euros in military procurement orders from the German Federal government in 2023 for the German Armed Forces and Ukraine and that this will likely increase to 15 billion Euros in 2024," the ISW report stated.

In January 2024, the first meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in a military format took place at the level of military commanders. This format was established during the summit in Vilnius in the summer of 2023 as one of the steps towards Ukraine's accession to the Alliance.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed a commitment to "at some stage" invite Ukraine to full membership in the Alliance.

Meanwhile, NATO has to prepare for potential Russian strikes on targets across Europe, including in Germany, if the Kremlin initiates a war against the alliance.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that NATO's doors remain open for Ukraine, and it will inevitably become a member of the Alliance.

The most interesting part of that is the construction of a new ammo factory. No word on its size or production capacity yet but it is still good news.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Ukrainian army demonstrates progress in transitioning to NATO standards - ISW

Ukraine is making efforts to bring its Armed Forces up to the standards of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Western partners are assisting the country in building its own defense-industrial base, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the Ministry of Defense, from December 2023 to January 2024, Ukraine implemented over 18 NATO standards. These standards include aspects related to the protection of personnel, communication training for the naval forces, as well as procedures for information and transportation systems.

According to ISW, Western partners continue to make efforts to develop their own defense-industrial base in support of Ukraine.

Armin Papperger, the CEO of the German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall, stated in an interview with Bild on January 28 that Rheinmetall is building a new ammunition production plant in Germany to establish "strategic security of supply" and ensure uninterrupted supply to Ukraine.

"Papperger also noted that Rheinmetall received over 10 billion Euros in military procurement orders from the German Federal government in 2023 for the German Armed Forces and Ukraine and that this will likely increase to 15 billion Euros in 2024," the ISW report stated.

In January 2024, the first meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in a military format took place at the level of military commanders. This format was established during the summit in Vilnius in the summer of 2023 as one of the steps towards Ukraine's accession to the Alliance.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed a commitment to "at some stage" invite Ukraine to full membership in the Alliance.

Meanwhile, NATO has to prepare for potential Russian strikes on targets across Europe, including in Germany, if the Kremlin initiates a war against the alliance.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that NATO's doors remain open for Ukraine, and it will inevitably become a member of the Alliance.

The most interesting part of that is the construction of a new ammo factory. No word on its size or production capacity yet but it is still good news.

The bae factory in Wales is also adding an extra production line. But it won't be delivering for a couple of years. Neither will this one. At best it will allow more stockpiles releases now as the future stockpile refill rate will be better.
The only group that seems to have ramped up as needed, without huge lag, is the us army owned ones, since they could add extra shifts and invest without having to go through the market.

[LaCroix]

Afaik most of the 100 tanks Russia is getting are refurbishments of old tanks in storage - the last time I got some numbers, it said that russia is not able to produce more than a few dozen 'modern' tanks (T72/80/90 - which due to the lack of western parts is pretty much the same these days) per month.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/2 ... -per-year/

That all is against the fact that they lose between 10 and 30 tanks a day.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=73 ... 9252730494 today, for example... Just scroll to see the other days. This data is compiled by counting verified kills recorded on video.

There are online reports of Moscow being blacked out (at least partially) after a thermal plant exploded - no idea why, but since the heating is wonky in big parts of the city, and lots of people have resorted to electric heaters, these powerplants have been running at maximum capacity for a long time. So blowing up due to a malfunction is just as likely as malicious action. This also seems to have shut down the internet in parts of the city which makes confirmation hard.

Oh, btw...
The ground-launched small diameter bomb on the M26 booster (with up to 150km range) that was promised for so long seems to be ready, and successfully tested - a batch of it might be on the way to Ukraine, or already there.

[LaCroix]

source fot the new bomb... missed the edit window
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/3 ... e-00138566

[bilateralrope]

This article is from a week ago, but I don't think it was posted:

Ukrainian Drones Are Burning Down Russia’s Oil And Gas Industry

[
How badly could this hurt Russia's ability to produce and fuel tanks and other vehicles ?

Producing the fuel was never the problem. It's getting them to the units in question that was and the more static lines has made it easier for Russia to do so. Ukraine lacks the strike/interdiction capabilities to do a knockout blow that way and much of what she did successfully last year requires sustained munitions delivery .....


France has stepped up but with Gaza and other hotspots, including NK, the supply of basic shell munitions, PGM and long range munitions to Ukraine is shaky and not adequate for Ukraine wants.

I was more thinking of the economic effects if Ukraine manages to disrupt Russia's ability to sell the oil to other countries.

Afaik most of the 100 tanks Russia is getting are refurbishments of old tanks in storage -

Which leads to the question: How many old tanks are still in storage ?

[PainRack]

This article is from a week ago, but I don't think it was posted:

Ukrainian Drones Are Burning Down Russia’s Oil And Gas Industry

[
How badly could this hurt Russia's ability to produce and fuel tanks and other vehicles ?

Producing the fuel was never the problem. It's getting them to the units in question that was and the more static lines has made it easier for Russia to do so. Ukraine lacks the strike/interdiction capabilities to do a knockout blow that way and much of what she did successfully last year requires sustained munitions delivery .....


France has stepped up but with Gaza and other hotspots, including NK, the supply of basic shell munitions, PGM and long range munitions to Ukraine is shaky and not adequate for Ukraine wants.

I was more thinking of the economic effects if Ukraine manages to disrupt Russia's ability to sell the oil to other countries.

[

Russia ability to sell oil just got a major shock.


Essentially, India who has been exploiting the shit out of Russia is digging in further. So, one note is that India has been trying to push rupee as the note for international trade.

https://m.thewire.in/article/economy/ex ... onal-trade

They met limited success, but Russian sale in oil has been met with rupees. Which needs to be sold for Russia purposes, and thanks to sanctions, was a problem. Russia can use said rupees to buy Indian goods but again, there's a limit thanks to sanctions and etcetcetc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ent-issues
As Russia demands otherwise, India has reduced imports from Russia, switching to the Middle East. There's currently several tankers left high and dry in the open seas due to this.

There's also some speech by India ministers about following the tightened sanctions and price cap but essentially, Russia got fucked. Hard by India exploitation. They don't want to keep getting fuck, and India played hardball.


Since India at one point formed 50% of Russian oil sales (heh at US media focus on China oil purchases), you can see how this is bad for their energy sector.

[PainRack]

Afaik most of the 100 tanks Russia is getting are refurbishments of old tanks in storage - the last time I got some numbers, it said that russia is not able to produce more than a few dozen 'modern' tanks (T72/80/90 - which due to the lack of western parts is pretty much the same these days) per month.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/2 ... -per-year/

That all is against the fact that they lose between 10 and 30 tanks a day.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=73 ... 9252730494 today, for example... Just scroll to see the other days. This data is compiled by counting verified kills recorded on video.

There are online reports of Moscow being blacked out (at least partially) after a thermal plant exploded - no idea why, but since the heating is wonky in big parts of the city, and lots of people have resorted to electric heaters, these powerplants have been running at maximum capacity for a long time. So blowing up due to a malfunction is just as likely as malicious action. This also seems to have shut down the internet in parts of the city which makes confirmation hard.

Oh, btw...
The ground-launched small diameter bomb on the M26 booster (with up to 150km range) that was promised for so long seems to be ready, and successfully tested - a batch of it might be on the way to Ukraine, or already there.

UK MOD says that the changes to more positional warfare means that Russian lost around 125 tanks in October, the timeframe covers between October to Jan is approximately 100 tanks monthly built and 100 lost.


The key crux appears to be that Russia is able to maintain it's reduced operational tempo, having built enough munitions and tanks to do so while Ukraine ability to do so is threatened by the GOP.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Producing the fuel was never the problem. It's getting them to the units in question that was and the more static lines has made it easier for Russia to do so. Ukraine lacks the strike/interdiction capabilities to do a knockout blow that way and much of what she did successfully last year requires sustained munitions delivery .....


France has stepped up but with Gaza and other hotspots, including NK, the supply of basic shell munitions, PGM and long range munitions to Ukraine is shaky and not adequate for Ukraine wants.

I was more thinking of the economic effects if Ukraine manages to disrupt Russia's ability to sell the oil to other countries.

[

Russia ability to sell oil just got a major shock.


Essentially, India who has been exploiting the shit out of Russia is digging in further. So, one note is that India has been trying to push rupee as the note for international trade.

https://m.thewire.in/article/economy/ex ... onal-trade

They met limited success, but Russian sale in oil has been met with rupees. Which needs to be sold for Russia purposes, and thanks to sanctions, was a problem. Russia can use said rupees to buy Indian goods but again, there's a limit thanks to sanctions and etcetcetc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ent-issues
As Russia demands otherwise, India has reduced imports from Russia, switching to the Middle East. There's currently several tankers left high and dry in the open seas due to this.

There's also some speech by India ministers about following the tightened sanctions and price cap but essentially, Russia got fucked. Hard by India exploitation. They don't want to keep getting fuck, and India played hardball.


Since India at one point formed 50% of Russian oil sales (heh at US media focus on China oil purchases), you can see how this is bad for their energy sector.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023 ... to-succeed

A different look at the same sanctions. Basically, they aren't meant to be too successful, so as not to trigger a worldwide oil shortage and price spike. They're just supposed to keep Russian oil sale prices pressured down to just about meeting costs. As solar rollout on EU and china builds, that pressure down can grow without triggering a price spike. We might be seeing that now, especially with northern winter nearly over.

An example in the article of dodgy German car manufacturers selling to Russia via middle men.

I've always been thinking of the oil sanctions as splitting the market, with the G7 paying slightly more for non-russian oil and India/china ect paying slightly less for Russian oil. In effect, it's a net cash transfer to large developing countries.

[madd0c0t0r2]

A useful primer on artillery warfare terms and concepts: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-resear ... nnovations

[LaCroix]

Ok, that wsa a busy night.

A drone strike managed to knowck out a russian radar site on the northern Crimean, and tonight, this was SEVERELY explaited. I've not compiled all the news yet, but they hit several targets. Sevastopol, Belbeck, and then some.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/25638137/ ... ld-crimea/
The russians say they intercepted everything, (as usual), but I've seen videos of at least 3 interceptions made by ground objects on what seems to be Belbek airport.


On top, there are videos of naval drones sinking the (project 1241), but this is not yet officially confirmed online, afaik.
https://censor.net/en/video_news/347100 ... m=referral

Just as well, the Russian Winter offensive has pretty much not progressed at all, since the start of it in Oktober, they barely made any progress, not in Ardivka, and the Krinky beachhead is also still there. Ukraine expects the Russians to keep trying and trying again during February and March, trying to get ANYTHING to show for Putin's election campaign, and will be exhausted come spring. They are curently using the predictable sucidal attack sto save ammunition, and prepare for their counteroffensive in Spring (most likely across the Krinky line of advance)
There is a good article condensing the longer pieces on the ISW and the interviews
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-ma ... iv-1865564

On other Non-news:
While Shoigu is still getting airtime, a lot, Gerasimiov is now missing for over a month without any peep about his whereabouts. His name is not even being mentioned, anywhere, as if they were trying to make people forget he ever existed. I am almost expecting his still image to prominently observe a big televised meeting, soon.

[LaCroix]

This might deserve an extra post...

Hungary caved and the 50 bn package is unanimously adopted...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu ... 024-02-01/

[EnterpriseSovereign]

This might deserve an extra post...

Hungary caved and the 50 bn package is unanimously adopted...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu ... 024-02-01/

About fucking time!

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Vladimir Putin's China gamble collapsing as Russia fails to compensate for gas sale losses

Vladimir Putin has seen his attempts to compensate for the loss of gas sales to Europe by turning to China collapse in a hulimilating blow.

Russia's gas industry was the primary target of Western sanctions in the aftermath of Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

But recent figures have shown attempts to make Beijing the country's primary gas buyer have not been as successful as the Russian leader might have hoped.

In October. the head of state gas giant Gazprom Alexei Miller, expressed hopes sales to China may "reach the level that we had for export to Western Europe" thanks to the closer ties Putin has been fostering with Xi Jinping.

However, a Russian central bank delivered a hard blow to both the Kremlin and Gazprom when it released a report showing gas sales to China haven't been any closer to making up the shortfall caused by European buyers turning their backs on Russia.

The report noted there had been a considerable spike in sales via the Power of Siberia pipeline, with 23 billion cubic meters of natural gas having made their way from Russia to China in 2023.

But the researchers behind the assessment said the increase only "partially compensated for their decrease from Russia through pipelines to Europe."

A second pipeline linking Russia to China via Mongolia, the so-called Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, was due to begin construction this year but has since been delayed.

Gazprom reported a considerable loss in production for the first half of 2023, with numbers dropping to 179.45 billion cubic metres.

The gas company said the drop was the result of "politically motivated decisions aimed at abandoning the import of Russian gas" taken by European nations.

Market analyst Grzegorz Drozdz told Newsweek: "Gas imports from Russia have fallen by 65 percent since the war in Ukraine began.

"European countries, particularly in Western Europe, have increased their gas imports from Norway and LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the United States.

"Perhaps interestingly, the current flow of gas from Russia to Europe since the beginning of the war still exists via the Ukraine Transit pipeline, (which is) down 56 percent and Turkstream (which is) up 23 percent."

Despite the persisting hostility between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow remains open to doing business with Europe.

Novak said: "We are always ready to continue gas supplies to Europe. So far, we do not see such a desire."

[Solauren]

Vladimir Putin's China gamble collapsing as Russia fails to compensate for gas sale losses

Despite the persisting hostility between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow remains open to doing business with Europe.

Novak said: "We are always ready to continue gas supplies to Europe. So far, we do not see such a desire."

This is good news. Russia can't fight a war without money...

[bilateralrope]

Sounds like the attrition warfare is tipping towards Ukraine.

[LaCroix]

Yes, attrition is really biting Russia hard, these days.

Because of being a "superpower", People tend to put Russia into the bracket of USA and China in Economic power.
It's wrong.
Their GDP is barely half of Germany, and almost all of it is ressource sales. Pretty much everything they produce is made from parts that are imported, especially their military.
Even PPP Adjusted GDP is only roughly the same as Germany. And that is with the highly doctored numbers coming out of Russia, and Russia is currently planning to spend 35% of their annual budget on the military - and that was while they are not paying their soldiers, not paying out widow pensions or promised benefits, and before this whole business with India only buying in rupees, and now the issues with china.
Meanwhile, half of Russia is frozen with heating collapses, having power outages, having no internet at times because they shut it down in hopes it makes drones malfunction, while every day, more stuff is going up in flames.

Nope, Russia is NOT having a good time, economically.

The same illusion of power is upheld regarding their military.
Apart from the nuclear arsenal(which is the primary reason they can bully people about), Russia is mostly a paper tiger.
While Russia has(or to be precise - HAD) tremendous military reserves, 90% of these are due to storing everything from the second world war till now, and they are producing virtually nothing. If not fo NK and China sending them their production and stockpiles, they'd been out last year - for a fact, summer 2023, ukraine had no issues while Russia had to ration their ammo. Then, Russia started getting supplies from NK. Pretty soon those will be used up, too, and then Russia will fall back to roughly parity with Ukraine, although with their abysmal hit rate.

We can see clearly in satellite images that thes e(open air storages) are almost empty. Everything they could make run is now on the frontline, and everything else has been cannibalized for parts.

Same for their 'modern' weapons.
T90 are merely modernized T72 (started its life as the T-72BM), which means they go up in flame from about everything that scratches the turret ring.
The T14 was a still-birth, using the engine of the TIGER 1 tank, of all things, and not even working properly on parades.
On the other hand, the SU-57 is the perfect stealth fighter, because it never leaves the hangar.
Other airplanes are now no longer flying combat missions on the front lines, due to air defense getting too tight for them.
The much-feared flame-throwers TOS-1 and 2 fuel-air missiles have only 6km range, which is why they are nowhere to be seen on the battlefield, anymore - there is no way you can get within 6km of the frontline without an FPV drone falling on on your head. We had spectacular light shows from those who failed to learn that lesson.
Meanwhile, S300 and S400 are also not coming anywhere close to their performance on paper.

The only thing they have (again - on paper) was "the meat wave".
But Ukraine is demonstrating that you can hold them off pretty much infinitely with relative ease if you just stand your ground and accept that you have to occasionally take a tiny step back if you run out of ammo too fast. If Ukraine is getting fed money and equipment, they can pretty much wait Russia out. After all, war is won by the side that can hold out 5 minutes longer. If we feed them more, they can even start pushing Russia back. If they manage to get another big push, Russian narrative will fall apart.

People keep talking about the failed Ukrainian offensive, but fact is that the failed Russian counteroffensive that started in August, and then the failed (and still failing) Winter offensive started in October, both, have resulted in less total territory change than this Ukrainian "failure".
if you compare the numbers, you see that Russia is pretty much still at the lines they have occupied in the first weeks of the initial attack - minus the parts that Ukraine has liberated in the two big pushes they made. So they have gained nothing but a few totally demolished towns for these last two years of grinding attrition that has emptied their arsenals and sent them beggin North Korea and China for ammo.

So far, the Russians have mobilized all expendable bodies of their "lesser Russian" people, emptied their prisons, and press-ganged migrant laborers. Currently, we are seeing somalian and syrian people getting suckered into Russia with promises, only to end up in Z-Storm units (aka -walk into enemy guns until they run out of ammo special shock troopers).
Remember the huge fire that destroyed the russian version of Amazon? That happened because of the "meat tax" - Russian companies are getting a visit from recruiters, and then they demand that a certain number of laborers are given to them. (Tells you everything about how Russia sees laborers as company property.) In this case, the laborers have set fire to the warehouse in attempts to escape, and as a fuck you, too gesture.
With the pool of able-bodied people shrinking, we now see these constants accidents, breakdowns and everything happening, and companies are struggling to keep things going, which make another round of conscription questionable. so they either have to go at the minorities(there are few left, and they are getting unruly), get more mercenaries(expensive), go for the kids fresh from school(good luck with the mothers), or take people form Moscow and St. Peterburg (the "important people").

If they are going to have another round of conscription, it will SERIOUSLY hurt their economy and stability, no matter which way they do it.

So arguably, we are seeing Russia to struggle with manpower, as well.
Again, they might on paper have millions to spare, but the Russian demographics and health situation is not quite that promising.
It's the same as saying that Texas could field a 5 million men army to fight for secession from the US, while ignoring the fact that more than 50% of these men could not walk to the next intersection.

[Elfdart]

Yes, attrition is really biting Russia hard, these days.

Because of being a "superpower", People tend to put Russia into the bracket of USA and China in Economic power.
It's wrong.
Their GDP is barely half of Germany, and almost all of it is ressource sales. Pretty much everything they produce is made from parts that are imported, especially their military.
Even PPP Adjusted GDP is only roughly the same as Germany. And that is with the highly doctored numbers coming out of Russia, and Russia is currently planning to spend 35% of their annual budget on the military - and that was while they are not paying their soldiers, not paying out widow pensions or promised benefits, and before this whole business with India only buying in rupees, and now the issues with china.
Meanwhile, half of Russia is frozen with heating collapses, having power outages, having no internet at times because they shut it down in hopes it makes drones malfunction, while every day, more stuff is going up in flames.

Nope, Russia is NOT having a good time, economically.

The same illusion of power is upheld regarding their military.
Apart from the nuclear arsenal(which is the primary reason they can bully people about), Russia is mostly a paper tiger.
While Russia has(or to be precise - HAD) tremendous military reserves, 90% of these are due to storing everything from the second world war till now, and they are producing virtually nothing. If not fo NK and China sending them their production and stockpiles, they'd been out last year - for a fact, summer 2023, ukraine had no issues while Russia had to ration their ammo. Then, Russia started getting supplies from NK. Pretty soon those will be used up, too, and then Russia will fall back to roughly parity with Ukraine, although with their abysmal hit rate.

We can see clearly in satellite images that thes e(open air storages) are almost empty. Everything they could make run is now on the frontline, and everything else has been cannibalized for parts.

Same for their 'modern' weapons.
T90 are merely modernized T72 (started its life as the T-72BM), which means they go up in flame from about everything that scratches the turret ring.
The T14 was a still-birth, using the engine of the TIGER 1 tank, of all things, and not even working properly on parades.
On the other hand, the SU-57 is the perfect stealth fighter, because it never leaves the hangar.
Other airplanes are now no longer flying combat missions on the front lines, due to air defense getting too tight for them.
The much-feared flame-throwers TOS-1 and 2 fuel-air missiles have only 6km range, which is why they are nowhere to be seen on the battlefield, anymore - there is no way you can get within 6km of the frontline without an FPV drone falling on on your head. We had spectacular light shows from those who failed to learn that lesson.
Meanwhile, S300 and S400 are also not coming anywhere close to their performance on paper.

The only thing they have (again - on paper) was "the meat wave".
But Ukraine is demonstrating that you can hold them off pretty much infinitely with relative ease if you just stand your ground and accept that you have to occasionally take a tiny step back if you run out of ammo too fast. If Ukraine is getting fed money and equipment, they can pretty much wait Russia out. After all, war is won by the side that can hold out 5 minutes longer. If we feed them more, they can even start pushing Russia back. If they manage to get another big push, Russian narrative will fall apart.

People keep talking about the failed Ukrainian offensive, but fact is that the failed Russian counteroffensive that started in August, and then the failed (and still failing) Winter offensive started in October, both, have resulted in less total territory change than this Ukrainian "failure".
if you compare the numbers, you see that Russia is pretty much still at the lines they have occupied in the first weeks of the initial attack - minus the parts that Ukraine has liberated in the two big pushes they made. So they have gained nothing but a few totally demolished towns for these last two years of grinding attrition that has emptied their arsenals and sent them beggin North Korea and China for ammo.

So far, the Russians have mobilized all expendable bodies of their "lesser Russian" people, emptied their prisons, and press-ganged migrant laborers. Currently, we are seeing somalian and syrian people getting suckered into Russia with promises, only to end up in Z-Storm units (aka -walk into enemy guns until they run out of ammo special shock troopers).
Remember the huge fire that destroyed the russian version of Amazon? That happened because of the "meat tax" - Russian companies are getting a visit from recruiters, and then they demand that a certain number of laborers are given to them. (Tells you everything about how Russia sees laborers as company property.) In this case, the laborers have set fire to the warehouse in attempts to escape, and as a fuck you, too gesture.
With the pool of able-bodied people shrinking, we now see these constants accidents, breakdowns and everything happening, and companies are struggling to keep things going, which make another round of conscription questionable. so they either have to go at the minorities(there are few left, and they are getting unruly), get more mercenaries(expensive), go for the kids fresh from school(good luck with the mothers), or take people form Moscow and St. Peterburg (the "important people").

If they are going to have another round of conscription, it will SERIOUSLY hurt their economy and stability, no matter which way they do it.

So arguably, we are seeing Russia to struggle with manpower, as well.
Again, they might on paper have millions to spare, but the Russian demographics and health situation is not quite that promising.
It's the same as saying that Texas could field a 5 million men army to fight for secession from the US, while ignoring the fact that more than 50% of these men could not walk to the next intersection.

Citations needed.

[vakundok]

Please not this "provide source or remain silent" again. Would it be possible to get into matching sources when providing a contradictory view for one or more points, like "from ..., I got a different understanding on this point, where is your info from"?

Apart from the issue of source reliability with informational war at full swing.

[Gandalf]

Please not this "provide source or remain silent" again.

Nah. As a reader, I'd prefer to know if things come from credible places as I read them.